WAR 01-30-2016-to-02-05-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(200) 01-09-2016-to-01-15-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...15-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(201) 01-16-2016-to-01-22-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...22-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(202) 01-23-2016-to-01-29-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...29-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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Sorry for the delay folks, my DSL modem is acting up (11 years old). I can't really do this sort of a set up on my phone. I just got the modem to start working so after I'm done getting the thread started I'm headed out to get a new one.... Housecarl
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Are the Men of Sweden fighting back?
Started by imaginativeý, Today 06:44 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?483450-Are-the-Men-of-Sweden-fighting-back

BBC: Turkey says Russia violated its airspace on Friday, 01-30-2016 Report
Started by Possible Impactý, Today 09:25 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ated-its-airspace-on-Friday-01-30-2016-Report

Navy sends ship near disputed island in South China Sea
Started by Hfcommsý, Today 06:40 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-ship-near-disputed-island-in-South-China-Sea

56 members of MS-13 gang are charged in Massachusetts
Started by smokiný, Yesterday 01:11 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...rs-of-MS-13-gang-are-charged-in-Massachusetts

The Four Horsemen - Week of 01/26 to 02/02
Started by Ragnarok‎, 01-26-2016 07:21 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?483168-The-Four-Horsemen-Week-of-01-26-to-02-02
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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.maxim.com/news/mystery-sniper-isis-2016-1

A Mysterious Sniper Is Taking Out ISIS Commanders

IS ground forces are in an uproar.

Steve Huff · 9 hours ago

Someone is taking out top men in the ISIS-held Libyan city of Sirte, and the jihadis are scrambling to find out who it is.

Citing local media, the Telegraph reported that someone with sniper-level skills has killed three ISIS commanders over the course of weeks. Further reports indicate the mystery killer has completely unnerved the caliphate's fighters on the ground. Multiple arrests have ensued in an effort to bring the sniper to the Islamic State's version of "justice," which the Telegraph noted can include "a regime of floggings and beheadings."

The Telegraph reported that the sniper's fight against ISIS occupation is likely supported by most of Sirte's residents, and it has sparked interest in Enemy at the Gates, a 2001 World War II film starring Jude Law. Enemy depicts the exploits of one of the Soviet Union's greatest snipers during the Nazi siege of Stalingrad.

The Libya Herald (subscription site) reported that the sniper has been "fingered as the unidentified individual who in 2011 wreaked havoc in Tripoli among" those still loyal to Gaddafi. Another fascinating theory as to the sniper's identity: he or she could be a member of U.S. special forces. As the Telegraph noted, there appear to be ongoing American secret missions in the region.

Whoever the cool-headed shooter is, they're doing honest work every time they take out a killer in the employ of the Islamic State. Hopefully they know how many people are pulling for them to stay in the shadows and keep shooting straight.

h/t The Telegraph

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://theaviationist.com/2016/01/2...e-allegedly-aiming-at-a-u-s-aircraft-carrier/

Tehran releases footage of Iranian navy submarine allegedly aiming at a U.S. aircraft carrier

Jan 29 2016 - 15 Comments
By David Cenciotti

The Iranian Navy has spied on a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Strait of Hormuz with drones and subs.

Iranian Tasmin News media outlet has aired a short video, allegedly filmed by a Ghadir-class submarine during a maritime exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.

The footage (click here) shows the submarine or a warship (the image above seems to be taken from a certain height from above the sea level…) somehow aiming or at least pointing its sensors at the American warship. According to the reports from the Iranian media, a drone took part in the surveillance operation as well, taking pictures of the American flattop from above.

In another video, you can see an IRGC drone flying close to the carrier (click here).

It’s not clear if and when the “close encounter” really happened nor the name of the “targeted” U.S. vessel; currently the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier is operating in the Persian Gulf supporting Operation Inherent Resolve against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

The incident occurred just a few days after ten U.S. sailors were abducted by Iran, following a technical malfunction that caused them to enter Iranian national waters near an island in the Gulf.

On Dec. 26, 2015 an Iranian vessel approached aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and fired rockets in a direction away from the American flattop.

This is not the first time Iranian surveillance planes or even subs operate in the vicinity of an American aircraft carrier transiting across Hormuz. However, especially when sailing in troubled waters, all the aircraft carrier’s defenses (including surface to air missiles) are on heightened alert status and almost no suspect (manned or unmanned) aircraft approaching the ship goes unnoticed.

On the other side submarines can be a significant threat to the U.S. CSGs (Carrier Strike Groups).

During exercises and real ops, submarines regularly slip in the heart of the multi-billion-dollar aircraft carrier’s defensive screen to pretend-sinking U.S. supercarriers, whose underwater defenses are far from being impenetrable.

Last year we reported about the U.S. aircraft carrier and part of its escort “sunk” by French submarine during drills off Florida.

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http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ar06vDaLQms/TRzAM_OEy1I/AAAAAAAAAas/KSd1xIo61dc/s1600/Ghadir_Side1.jpg

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/57565/china-commissions-type-082-ii-class-mcmv

Sea Platforms

China commissions Type 082 II-class MCMV

Andrew Tate, London - IHS Jane's Navy International
28 January 2016

China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new Type 082B Wozang-class mine countermeasures vessel (MCMV). The ship was introduced into the North Sea Fleet on 25 January at the Dalian naval base, North East China.

Named Rongcheng (pennant number 811), the vessel is the fourth-in-class; the lead ship was commissioned in July 2005. The first two are thought to be operated by the East Sea Fleet, with the third being part of the South Sea Fleet.

The Type 082B displaces around 600 tonnes, has a length of 55 m, and a beam of 9.3 m. A hydraulic crane is installed aft to deploy a variety of towed or tethered bodies, including a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) which has some resemblance to the Italian Pluto system. Equipped with cameras for identifying mines, the vehicle has four thrusters for accurate manoeuvring and appears to have the capability to lay explosive charges to destroy mines on the sea bed.

TV footage also showed that, in addition to the new MCMV, three remotely operated unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) have been delivered. These are substantial craft, displacing around 100 tonnes with a length estimated to be about 25 m; they have been photographed operating from other Type 082B MCMVs.

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/57566/...ier-capability-for-south-china-sea-operations

Asia Pacific

Beijing 'to continue to use carrier capability for South China Sea operations'

Ridzwan Rahmat, Singapore - IHS Jane's Navy International
28 January 2016

Key Points
•China intends to use aircraft carriers for defence of its territories in the South China Sea, says academic
•Recent operations by the United States in the area have validated the need for an aircraft carrier there, he argues

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is likely deploy at least one aircraft carrier for permanent operations in the South China Sea once its second ship is fully operational, a Chinese academic told IHS Jane's on 28 January.

Professor Chu Shulong, who is currently the director of the Institute of International Strategic and Development Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, was speaking to IHS Jane's after giving a lecture on Chinese military modernisation and security strategy at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. Chu is also a professor at China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Party School.

"For the Northern Sea, Yellow Sea, and Eastern Sea, China does not need an aircraft carrier. Chinese land-based [aircraft] are capable of reaching places like the Diaoyu Islands", said Chu, in reference to the territories also claimed by Japan and known in Tokyo as the Senkaku Islands.

However, the same cannot be said of China's territories in the South China Sea, the professor argued. "Should the Americans send their [aircraft] and ships into the South China Sea, China currently does not have the [aerial] capacity to deal with such a challenge", said Chu; he added that it will take about an hour for Chinese fighter aircraft from the nearest airbase on Hainan Island to reach the southern regions of the South China Sea.

"These challenges [from the United States] will most likely take place very frequently in the future", said Chu. The US Navy (USN) Freedom of Navigation (FON) operations, notably the sailing of the DDG 51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Lassen past Subi Reef in October 2015, has convinced Chinese military leaders that the deployment of an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea is necessary going forward, he continued.

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(354 of 582 words)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/57519/...-undergo-materiel-condition-assessment-by-usn

Sea Platforms

Inactive US icebreaker to undergo materiel condition assessment by USN

Peter Ong, San Francisco - IHS Jane's Navy International
27 January 2016

Key Points
•USCG is finalising an agreement with NAVSEA to complete a materiel assessment of Polar Sea
•Polar Sea's preservation drydocking maintenance is expected to conclude in February

A US icebreaker currently proceeding through a preservation dry docking will be assessed by the US Navy's (USN's) acquisition command for possible reactivation, US Coast Guard (USCG) officials told IHS Jane's .

In 2016, the USCG intends to conduct a materiel condition assessment (MCA) investigation of USCGC Polar Sea , which has been sidelined since October 2011 because of failure in five of its six engines.

"The Coast Guard is finalising an interagency agreement with the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) to complete the materiel condition assessment.

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(115 of 452 words)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/will-pakistan-buy-turkeys-new-advanced-main-battle-tank/

Will Pakistan Buy Turkey’s New Advanced Main Battle Tank?

Islamabad purportedly has expressed interest in acquiring Istanbul’s new main battle tank, according to media reports.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
January 29, 2016

1.2k Shares
17 Comments

The head of Turkey’s defense procurement agency, the Undersecretariat for Defense Industries, Ismail Demir announced earlier this month during a testimony in parliament that Pakistan’s military is interested in procuring the country’s first indigenously-designed third generation+ main battle tank, dubbed Altay, according to local media reports.

“Including Pakistan and the Gulf countries, we can say that countries that we have good relations with are showing a large interest in the tank. Representatives of some countries are being invited to the ongoing firing tests,” Demir said. Tests are currently underway in Turkey’s Sarýkamýþ district in the eastern province of Kars.

The Altay main battle tank (MBT) is named after Army General Fahrettin Altay, a Turkish cavalry commander from the Turkish War of Independence. In 2008, the Turkish Ministry of Defense awarded the Turkish military vehicles manufacturer Otokar a $500 million contract for the design, development, and production of four MBT prototypes.

Otokar entered into a system development deal with South Korean tank maker, Hyundai Rotem, whose K2 Black Panther tank project serves as the basis for the development of the Altay. Both tanks share the same base design including the chassis, although the Altay is purportedly slightly longer, equipped with heavier armor, and, in comparison to the K2 MBT also sports a modified turret with composite armor.

Both tanks are also armed with a 120-millimeter smoothbore gun, although the K2 Black Panther MBT is equipped with an automatic loader, whereas the gun on the Altay has to be loaded manually. Furthermore, the Altay MBT has a laser guided missile firing capability and is additionally armed with 7.62 millimeter coaxial machine gun and a pintle-mounted 12.7 millimeter machine gun up top.

The Altay can accommodate a crew of four and with its German-made 1,500 horsepower engine can reach a maximum speed of up to 70 kilometers per hour (43 mph). In October 2015, Turkish engine maker TUMOSAN signed an agreement with the Austrian firm, AVL List, for technical support in designing an indigenous engine for for future batches of the Altay MBT.

Five prototype tanks are currently undergoing system qualification and acceptance tests. “The tests, meanwhile, are extremely satisfying,” according to Ismail Demir. Defense News reports that Otokar has recently submitted a serial production proposal for an initial batch of 250 tanks “and integrated logistical support for the program.”

Serial production is slated to begin in 2017. Turkey plans to produce up to 1,000 tanks. Two other Turkish arms manufacturers will compete for the contract.

As of now, Pakistan has not officially expressed interest in the procurement of the Altay, although in January 2015, representatives of Pakistan’s defense industry said that they are considering procuring the Altay’s third generation thermal imagining sight for the Al-Khalid MBT, jointly developed by Pakistan and China during the 1990s. Islamabad is in the process of enlarging its force of main battle tanks.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/retu...rts-freedom-of-navigation-in-paracel-islands/

Return of the FONOP: US Navy Destroyer Asserts Freedom of Navigation in Paracel Islands

On Saturday, the USS Curtis Wilbur sailed within 12 nautical miles of a disputed island in the Paracel Islands.

By Ankit Panda
January 31, 2016

307 Shares
11 Comments

On Saturday, a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer, the USS Curtis Wilbur, sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Triton Island is claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and is administered by China. The Curtis Wilbur‘s passage near Triton Island marks the first freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea since the U.S. Navy sailed the USS Lassen within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands, marking 95 days between the two operations. Triton Island is not among the features where China has built artificial islands and constructed military and civilian features.

According to Captain Jeff Davis, a spokesperson for the Pentagon, no Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) vessels attempted to inhibit the Curtis Wilbur‘s passage unlike during the October freedom of navigation patrol in the Spratlys, when PLAN vessels escorted the Lassen out of the 12 nautical mile zone around Subi Reef. “This operation challenged attempts by the three claimants — China, Taiwan and Vietnam — to restrict navigation rights and freedoms,” Davis added.

Davis clarified that the latest freedom of navigation patrol was an “innocent passage,” intended to challenge policies by both China and Vietnam that require vessels transiting the 12 nautical mile territorial waters of features in the Paracels to first notify maritime authorities. The United States rejects prior notification and sees these waters as open for lawful navigation compliant with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS). “No claimants were notified prior to the transit, which is consistent with our normal process and international law,” Davis added.

The Chinese foreign ministry protested the freedom of navigation patrol. “The American warship has violated relevant Chinese laws by entering Chinese territorial waters without prior permission, and the Chinese side has taken relevant measures including monitoring and admonishments,” it said in a statement. “We urge the US side to respect [and] abide by relevant Chinese laws, to do more things conducive to Sino-US mutual trust and regional peace and stability,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying added in the statement.

Notably, the statement asserts that the Curtis Wilbur entered “Chinese territorial waters.” In October, after the Lassen‘s freedom of navigation operation, the Chinese foreign ministry preserved a degree of ambiguity about its maritime claims in the Spratlys by noting that the Lassen‘s passage “threatened China’s sovereignty and security interests.” China has described its claims in the Spratlys as a “military alert zone” at times–a designation that has no particular meaning in international law.

Saturday’s freedom of navigation operation comes shortly after the heads of both the Chinese and U.S. navies consulted about unplanned encounters at sea between the two sides. Additionally, speaking last week, the commander of U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris, said that U.S. freedom of navigation patrols would intensify and grow more complex this year. Saturday’s freedom of navigation operation remains consistent with the precedent set in October in that it challenges excessive claims by multiple claimants. October’s freedom of navigation drew attention for challenging Chinese claims near Subi Reef, where China has built an artificial island with military applications, but it also involved the Lassen transiting within 12 nautical miles of Northeast Cay, Southwest Cay, South Reef, and Sandy Cay.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/turkey-is-turning-into-a-paranoid-one-party-state/

Turkey is turning into a paranoid one-party state

President Erdogan’s increasingly tyrannical regime is suppressing the truth about its war on the Kurds

John Butler
30 January 2016
Comments 52

Istanbul

Turkey is less and less a democracy, more and more a paranoid one-party state. If you don’t believe that, look at what happens to those who draw attention to the government’s failures and crimes. The editors of Cumhuriyet, a centre-left broadsheet, have been delivering their editorials from jail since November. A statement issued this month by the Izmir Society of Journalists claimed that 31 journalists were in prison while 234 were in legal limbo awaiting trial. Over the course of last year, they added, 15 television channels had been closed and 56 journalists refused accreditation.

Recently, a woman identifying herself as a teacher phoned in to a popular television talk show and asked the presenter, Beyazýt Öztürk, if he was aware of the terrible violence in the predominately Kurdish parts of southern and south-eastern Turkey. ‘Please, don’t let people die, don’t let children die, don’t make mothers grieve,’ she pleaded.

The next day, the TV channel — part of a group under intense pressure from the Turkish government — had to issue a grovelling apology for having aired this cry for help. ‘Doðan TV and Channel D have stood by the state from the first day to the present day,’ it read. Öztürk even delivered a personal apology on the day’s main news bulletin. But that wasn’t enough. He is now being investigated on charges of ‘making propaganda for a terrorist organisation’, and it is unclear whether his show will continue.

It’s not just journalists, either: a business group, Koza Ýpek, was taken into state administration and its media assets butchered on the grounds of ‘financing terrorism’ through a closeness to one of the government’s political rivals.

Why do President Recep Tayyip Erdoðan and the political party he co-founded, the Justice and Development party (AK party), need to suppress free speech? The AK party was swept back into single-party power in the second general election of last year with 49.5 per cent of the vote. It is now in a position where it can do almost anything it wants with Turkey. Yet it lacks the supermajority needed to change the constitution. This is problematic, because Erdoðan is now campaigning to abolish the position of prime minister and consolidate his power as president — a move he recently regretted comparing to Hitler’s Germany.

The AK party is still 13 MPs short of being able to bring the issue to a referendum, and the three opposition parties in parliament have all tasted enough AK party power to know that it is not in their interests to strike a deal. To achieve Erdoðan’s wish, the AK party must now knock the Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) — a coalition of Kurdish and leftist groups with 59 MPs — out of parliament, and that means controlling the narrative about the ongoing war in Turkey’s southeast.

So far, the government appears to be succeeding in defining how ordinary Turks see the violence between the state and the loosely HDP-linked Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which broke out again in July after years of peace talks. Those wanting to find out the facts often have to triangulate between highly unreliable Turkish pro–government news and equally unreliable, but less accessible, reporting from the Kurdish-movement press. Perhaps the most trustworthy figures are provided by the Human Rights Foundation of Turkey, which says that 1.37 million people have been affected by the government’s 24-hour-a-day curfews, which have been enforced since the violence restarted, and 162 civilians have been killed in the past five months.

Erdoðan now insists that Turkey will never again hold talks with any faction of the Kurdish separatist movement. ‘That work has finished,’ he has said. Prime minister Ahmet Davutoðlu, meanwhile, told a crowd outside AK party headquarters that the PKK were ‘trying to make young people the enemies of schools, of mosques and of the [holy] book… We’re up against a barbarian organisation.’

Yet the AK party is ambivalent in the way it deals with a more obviously barbarian movement, Isis. The government arrests on a whim Kurdish or Kurdish-sympathetic politicians for being ‘terrorist sympathisers’, but is curiously tolerant when dealing with actual Islamist terrorists. In the wake of an Isis suicide bombing in Ankara in October, for instance, Davutoðlu urged restraint: ‘If there’s a sleeper cell somewhere, you cannot simply round them all up and put them somewhere, hoping no one will notice. We have to behave in accordance with the law.’

Few AK party supporters hanker after the Isis way of life. Many in the party’s ranks belong to Sufi-influenced sects, which would earn them a death sentence were they to stray over the border. And the AK party could hardly ignore the bombings attributed to Isis last year in Diyarbakýr, Suruç and Ankara — or the killing of 11 tourists in another bombing three weeks ago in Istanbul.

Rather than taking the dry puritanism of Wahhabism as a model, the AK party prefers the aesthetic of a new Ottoman era, an attempt to recast the most glorious days of that empire to fit their brand of political Islamism. If this approach were to be encapsulated in a slogan, ‘Making Turkey Great Again’ would not be too far off. It seeks to underline the strength of the Turkish nation, the public role of Islam, and the importance of strong leadership — and that’s where President Erdoðan comes in.

In his push for near-absolute power and his construction of a palace around three times the size of Versailles, including a bunker with direct access to police CCTV cameras, Erdoðan is clearly suffering some form of megalomania. He is neurotic about the threats facing his government, and increasingly paranoid about disloyalty within his party. He has started to replace mainstream activists with advisers who — judging by their public proclamations, at least — spend much of their time worrying about conspiracies involving sinister international financiers or telepathy. Perhaps Erdoðan’s accidental comparison of himself to the Führer was a Freudian slip.

John Butler is a pseudonym.

 

[Housecarl]

NOVEMBER SIERRA!!!..........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/0...the-trouble-our-continent-is-descending-into/

EU officials find that most of the ‘refugees’ are not refugees. What a mess

Douglas Murray
30 January 2016
Comments 282

Even EU officials are now finally admitting that a lot – or, rather, most – of the people we have been calling ‘refugees’ are not refugees. They are economic migrants with no more right to be called European citizens than anybody else in the world. Even Frans Timmermans, Vice President of the European Commission, made this point this week. In his accounting, at least 60pc of the people who are here are economic migrants who should not be here – are from North African states such as Morocco and Tunisia. As he told Dutch television:-


“These are people that you can assume have no reason to apply for refugee status.”

Swedish officials are coming to a similar conclusion, saying that as many as 80,000 of the mainly young men who have gone to Sweden as ‘refugees’ in the past year alone are no such thing.

Now there are the usual attempts to crowd-please from certain politicians and officials who are talking about how they might have to deport these people. But they won’t, will they? Does anybody honestly believe that the Swedish authorities are currently preparing to deport 80,000 fake asylum seekers from their country?

Or let us assume that the 60pc figure is correct for Germany and that 60pc of the people who have arrived in Germany in the past year alone should not be there. Given that it has taken in more than a million people in the last twelve months, is Germany now going to deport as many as three quarters of a million fake asylum seekers from its territory? Of course not. They will not even attempt it. Everybody in Europe knows that. And everybody following events and weighing up their chances from outside Europe knows that.

Everybody on earth now knows that Europe’s present leaders lack either the will or the means to enforce their own laws. So more people will come next year, and the year after that and the year after that. All in the knowledge that once you’re in, you’re in. If the facts were otherwise then Sweden, Germany and other countries across the continent would currently be preparing to ship hundreds of thousands of people out of Europe and back to their countries of origin. But they’re not.

And so the numbers coming in will increase, and the politicians will keep posing, and the European peoples will rightly get more and more enraged at the fact that their continent is being taken away from them. Eventually perhaps even the constant bogeyman warnings about the ‘far-right’ will lose their capacity to scare. Not good times ahead, I’d say.

Still, at least we all listened to Benedict Cumberbatch.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/know-thy-north-korean-enemy/

Know Thy North Korean Enemy

America can’t wait for China on the Korean Peninsula.

By Rachel Wagley
January 30, 2016

13 Shares
3 Comments

“Who are you?” General Matthew Ridgway asked my grandmother in 1951 on the tarmac of a U.S. base in Korea. Ridgway had just replaced General Douglas MacArthur and was making the rounds – even introducing himself to the young woman in charge of two U.S. service clubs. Who are you? It is a question that a good commander asks of his subordinates to understand, value, and evaluate the people serving behind him.

It is also a question a good commander asks of his enemies. It is impossible to beat a formidable opponent – for Ridgway, North Korea – without knowing its calculations and motivations, and understanding how far it will go.

Sixty-five years after Ridgeway’s tenure in Korea, the United States is still facing down the same enemy. The protracted stalemate suggests that the United States has yet to fully learn how North Korea thinks and how far it will go. Since 2006, North Korea has tested four nuclear devices without fear of repercussion.

The latest test on January 6, 2016 kicked off the new year with a stark reminder that without a more studied U.S. policy, North Korea will continue its nuclear provocation and development. In his State of the Union address on January 12, U.S. President Barack Obama downplayed the threat of rogue regimes across the world, arguing that international dynamics are static, that regimes like North Korea aren’t growing stronger. But North Korea’s advancing nuclear capability renders the president’s claim demonstrably false.

Years of failing to know thine enemy have led to a bigger, badder enemy.

American policy should recognize the assets and strengths of rogue regimes, not disregard them. A more effective U.S. policy would center on how North Korea acts, not on how America wishes the country would act. It would focus on altering the regime’s nuclear calculus by cutting off opportunities for procurement and revenue generation, leveraging piercing sanctions on foreign companies supporting the regime, and convincing Beijing that North Korean nukes are leading to the deployment of weapons systems in Northeast Asia against its national interests.

But over the past several years, U.S. policy has been to do very little in response to nuclear tests – a policy that has earned support in some quarters. Walter Russell Mead argues that while the U.S. must “make clear that North Korea gains nothing from this kind of behavior and reassure jumpy allies without escalating the crisis…there isn’t much else to do.” I am loathe to rebut the truly brilliant Mr. Mead, but the U.S. has quite a bit more room to act in order to prevent an impoverished country half the size of Minnesota from provoking the civilized world and slapping a nuclear warhead on a missile.

American’s do-nothing strategy is based in part on the flawed argument that there is little else the U.S. can do without Chinese cooperation. This is a cop-out that has disproportionately inflated China’s clout. China persuaded South Korea to weather the North’s first three nuclear tests without meaningful retaliation, warning that retaliation would provoke escalation. South Korea bowed to Chinese pressure, but to no avail. China’s efforts to prevent escalation may indeed have created escalation by emboldening the North. North Korea got off scot-free for its belligerent tests, argues Dr. John Park in Strategic Asia: Asia in the Second Nuclear Age, and the credibility of South Korea’s deterrence in the North’s eyes has been severely eroded.

This time, South Korea seems to be fed up with China’s advice. After the January test, South Korea pointedly argued that China’s financial support of North Korea is antithetical to its support for a denuclearized Korean peninsula and that China should back new UN sanctions. In a groundbreaking move, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said she will consider U.S. deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) on South Korean soil, despite previous ambivalence in the face of strong Chinese opposition. Deployment of THAAD would send a clear message that a China that supports a nuclear North Korea is not a China to heed on matters of national defense.

The international community should of course court China’s support for tighter UN sanctions and trade controls on weapons procurement, but it should not depend or wait on a Chinese about-face on the Korea issue. China keeps North Korea financially afloat because it fears instability on its borders and relishes the buffer North Korea provides between China and its democratic neighbors. China’s dalliance demonstrates the power North Korea is capable of projecting over its populous neighbor. While more is required from China than mere support for UN sanctions, the U.S. and South Korea cannot wait for China to overcome its paranoia.

I recently traveled to Seoul as part of a delegation hosted by the Korea Foundation and Korea Economic Institute, which arranged an intensive series of meetings with Korean officials and thought leaders. The South Korean government, particularly the Ministry of Reunification, yearns for a unified Korea. The ministry’s latest slogan proclaims that a unified Korea would be an economic “bonanza.” Maybe so, but the U.S. and its allies can work toward this goal only insofar as they can act on reality. And the reality is that a unified Korea is premised on the deconstruction and disenfranchisement of the North Korean political-security apparatus. Waiting for the North Korean regime to suddenly combust or the Chinese to stop sending in money, a Korean expert relayed, is a wish upon a star and not a policy goal.

Hours before the State of the Union address on January 12, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 418-2 in favor of better targeted North Korean sanctions, and the Senate is expected to follow. The Obama administration too has indicated it may support a stronger response to the latest test, especially if China fails to act. This is a step in the right direction, and the resulting sanctions should target North Korea’s political elites, human rights abusers, and hacker network, but also foreign banks and companies harboring North Korean cash or doing illicit business with the regime. Only through financial strangulation will North Korea consent to reenter the six-party denuclearization talks.

The United States should also push the UN Security Council to refer North Korea to the International Criminal Court, a threat that helped spark reform in Burma. The United States should redesignate North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism and increase broadcasts and radio programming into North Korea. In short, America should hold North Korea’s feet to the fire while asking, What is North Korea? To those who listen to the war cries, it appears to be a regime intent on developing the capacity to threaten not only South Korea but also the United States with a nuclear weapon. And a United States more intent on waiting on and blaming China than taking action presents a perilous reality for the Asia-Pacific – and the U.S. homeland.

Rachel Wagley is Director of Government Relations and External Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002717464

Japan, U.S., ROK brace for N. Korean ‘surprise’

9:30 pm, January 30, 2016
By Takeo Miyazaki / Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent

SEOUL — Japan, the United States and South Korea are concerned that North Korea could test-fire a long-range ballistic missile without any prior warning in the same manner as the nuclear test on Jan. 6, as Pyongyang has shown signs of preparations for the test-firing of a missile.

According to observers, the North Korean moves also apparently aim to send a warning to the United States, China and other countries that have been discussing additional sanctions against the country at the U.N. Security Council in the wake of the nuclear test.

A research group on North Korean affairs at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, called 38 North, released Thursday satellite photos taken on Monday of the Sohae satellite launching station in Tongchang-ri in northwestern North Korea.

Around the launch pad, transportation vehicles and workers were seen in the photos.

According to a South Korean government source, it was confirmed recently that freight trains left missile factories in Pyongyang for Tongchang-ri.

But it is difficult to know the timing of the test-firing of a missile. According to diplomatic sources in Japan and South Korea, North Korea constructed a building in which a missile can be assembled indoors last year.

A facility to store missile fuel underground was also built, and thus it is now possible to inject fuel into a missile secretly. The launching pad and its surrounding facilities have always been curtained.

In past test-firings of missiles, the United States and some other countries could confirm via satellite the scenes of missile parts being assembled and fuel being injected by vehicles in operations that lasted for some days at the launching pad.

In the latest nuclear test on Jan. 6, North Korea did not notify the United States or China in advance, though the country had done so on prior occasions.

When North Korea test-fired missiles in the past, it designated areas where it prohibited ships of other countries from sailing. But this time, the South Korean government has voiced concern.

A South Korean Defense Ministry spokesperson said, “There is a possibility that [North Korea could] launch a missile without a prior notification of [what would be] a seriously provocative deed.”

In the wake of the nuclear test on Jan. 6, member countries of the U.N. Security Council, such as Japan, the United States and China, are considering compiling a resolution for additional sanctions against North Korea. In principle, China also has agreed with the United States that it is necessary for such a resolution to be adopted.

A South Korean government source said North Korea is “intimidating the international community” by showing the signs of firing a missile. The source believed that North Korea had emphatically expressed its intention to continue the nuclear missile development even if additional sanctions are imposed.

In the past, North Korea has conducted missile launches and nuclear tests close together in time. This time, a nuclear test was done first.

An official of the South Korean government predicted that North Korea “may launch a missile in connection with the nuclear test.”

On Thursday, Reuters reported that U.S. government sources said the next missile launch could be conducted within two or three weeks.

North Korea’s aim is to make the United States recognize the country as a nuclear power by completing development of missiles with nuclear warheads that can reach the United States.

The estimated range of an upgraded Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile is about 10,000 kilometers, and thus they can reach the U.S. West Coast.

Last year, North Korea raised the height of the launchpad by more than 10 meters so that the range will be longer, and repeatedly conducted combustion experiments of the missile engines.

Feb. 16 is the birthday of late leader Kim Jong Il. In May, a party convention of the Workers’ Party of Korea will be held for the first time in 36 years.

Observers noted the possibility that North Korea could launch a missile aiming to boost its national prestige.Speech

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160131000035

China paper warns North Korea amid preparations for rocket launch

Published : 2016-01-31 09:20
Updated : 2016-01-31 09:22

North Korea should not expect China to continue to play its role as a diplomatic backer at the United Nations, a newspaper published by China's ruling Communist Party warned Saturday, amid reports that Pyongyang is preparing a rocket launch after its recent nuclear test.

Speculation has mounted that North Korea could carry out a long-range rocket launch in the coming weeks, with satellite imagery of the country's rocket site showing what were believed to be preparation activities.

In an editorial, the state-run Global Times newspaper criticized North Korea for pursuing nuclear and missile ambitions, saying, "Pyongyang should not expect China to protect it through the United Nations if it is driven into a corner."

"If North Korea moves toward the limit step by step, China will not manage the situation," the editorial read.

The U.N. Security Council resolutions ban North Korea from conducting a long-range rocket launch with ballistic missile technology.

South Korea and the United States have called on China, which keeps North Korea's economy afloat, to join in drawing up tougher U.N. sanctions against the North for its fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6.

Still, China's reaction to such calls has been lukewarm. Many analysts believe that China's Communist Party leadership won't exert enough leverage on North Korea because a sudden collapse of the North's regime could threaten China's own security interests. (Yonhap)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/01/31/0200000000AEN20160131000800315.html

Park's security adviser to visit U.S. for talks on NK

2016/01/31 10:50

SEOUL, Jan. 31 (Yonhap) -- A senior South Korean presidential security adviser will visit the United States soon to discuss North Korea's possible long-range missile test and other issues, multiple government sources said Sunday.

Seoul and Washington are at the final stage of fine-tuning details for talks between Cho Tae-yong, deputy chief of the presidential office of national security, and his American counterpart, the sources said.

"The government's chief delegate for the upcoming strategic talks with the U.S. is almost set," one of the sources said. "The meeting will come in the not-so-distant future because there is the North Korean nuclear situation and it has elements related to North Korean issues."

It would mark the first such high-level strategic meeting between the two countries.

The meeting is a follow-up to a summit between President Park Geun-hye and U.S. President Barack Obama in October where they agreed to hold high-level strategic talks between the two countries to help create favorable conditions for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

The high-level talks will likely be held in February with Cho leading a delegation composed of senior officials from ministries of foreign affairs, unification and defense, according to the sources.

They said Avril Haines, deputy national security advisor, is expected to be Cho's counterpart.

The meeting was originally intended to fine-tune the two countries' policy on North Korea but is anticipated to focus on Pyongyang's nuclear and missile issues.

The two sides are also forecast to hold in-depth discussions about slapping strong sanctions on Pyongyang over its latest nuclear test on Jan. 6 and the idea of deploying the U.S. Terminal High Attitude Area Defense missile defense system to South Korea to better defend against the North.

(END)

 

[Housecarl]

Talk about one of the last places you want to tick off (and those who know about the activities of the "Tiger Division", "White Horse Division" and "Blue Dragon Brigade" in RoV know what I mean....)

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/01/30/56/0302000000AEN20160130001251320F.html

(LEAD) Warning in Arabic found in box suspected of carrying bomb

2016/01/30 12:47
(ATTN: ADDS more info)

SEOUL, Jan. 30 (Yonhap) -- Police said Saturday that they have found a warning message written in Arabic inside a box recently discovered at South Korea's main airport that raised terror alarms in the country.

The message, which was written in Arabic on a sheet of paper half the size of A4, reads, "This is the last warning to you. God will punish."

It was not a handwritten but a printed sentence with some grammatical errors, according to the police, who suspected that it could have been translated by a computer program or by a person whose Arabic skill is not that good.

The discovery was announced a day after the police found a box suspected to contain explosive devices in a men's bathroom in Incheon International Airport.

The area was cordoned off, but no explosives or detonators were found, just with two butane canisters and one bottled water taped to it.

Also found inside the box, along with the warning message, were guitar strings, electric cords, batteries and some pieces of vegetables, the police said.

With the discovery of the memo, the police said that they do not rule out the possibility that a Muslim terror organization might be involved but noted that chances are slim.

The police said that they are currently checking security cameras installed around the restroom in which the box was found.

(END)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-geneva-idUSKCN0V808D

World | Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:32pm EST
Related: World, United Nations, Syria

Stage is set for Syria peace talks as opposition arrives in Geneva

GENEVA/AMMAN | By Stephanie Nebehay and Suleiman Al-Khalidi


A delegation from Syria's main opposition group arrived in Geneva on Saturday to join U.N.-mediated peace talks, demanding President Bashar al-Assad's government be made to comply with a U.N. resolution on humanitarian aid and human rights.

“We are keen to make this negotiation a success," opposition spokesman Salim al-Muslat told reporters as the delegation arrived from Riyadh, ending weeks of uncertainty about whether they would come and the talks would happen.

The 17-strong team from the Saudi-backed Higher Negotiation Committee (HNC), including political and militant opponents of Assad in the country's 5-year-old civil war, is expected to have a first meeting with the U.N. mediator Staffan de Mistura on Sunday, setting up the first peace talks in two years.

Muslat said the HNC insisted on implementation of a U.N. resolution demanding all sides allow aid access, release detainees, end sieges and stop targeting civilian areas.

That was not a precondition for talks, he said, but it was the duty of the Security Council members who agreed the resolution last month, including Syria's chief ally Russia, which is supporting Assad's forces with a bombing campaign.

Russian air strikes on Syria have killed nearly 1,400 civilians since Moscow started its aerial campaign nearly four months ago, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group, said on Saturday.

"We are going to Geneva to put to the test the seriousness of the international community in its promises to the Syrian people and to also test the seriousness of the regime in implementing its humanitarian obligations," HNC spokesman Riyad Naasan Agha said.

"We want to show the world our seriousness in moving toward negotiations to find a political solution," he told Reuters.

Opposition coordinator Riad Hijab, who was not among the first HNC group to arrive, said in a statement posted online that there would have to be humanitarian improvements to justify the delegation's continued presence in Geneva.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the talks must ensure human rights are upheld as participants work toward a political transition in Syria.


Related Coverage
› Syrian opposition says it wants to make peace talks work, test Assad

"Humanitarian law must be respected and the objective of a political transition actively pursued to enable the talks to succeed," Fabius said in a statement sent to Reuters.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov was quoted by Russian Interfax news agency as saying that Moscow welcomed the decision by Syrian opposition coordinator, Riad Hijab, to take part in talks in Geneva.


U.N. SETS OUT AIMS

The United Nations earlier said the aim would be six months of talks, first seeking a ceasefire, later working toward a political settlement to a war that has killed more than 250,000 people, driven more than 10 million from their homes and drawn in global powers.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag: "Only at the negotiating table will it become clear if both sides are prepared to make painful compromises so that the killing stops and Syrians have a chance of a better future in their own country."

The HNC's demands include allowing aid convoys into rebel-held besieged areas where tens of thousands are living in dire conditions.

The medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) said on Saturday that 16 people had starved to death in the government-besieged town of Madaya since aid convoys arrived this month and accused the authorities of blocking medical shipments.

“It is totally unacceptable that people continue to die from starvation, and that critical medical cases remain in the town when they should have been evacuated weeks ago,” said Brice de le Vingne, MSF’s director of operations in a statement.

Agha said the opposition delegation, including HNC head Hijab and chief negotiator Asaad al-Zoubi, would not call for a complete cessation of hostilities but would demand an end to "the indiscriminate shelling of markets, hospitals and schools by the regime and its Russian backers".

Russia and Syria deny targeting civilians, saying they take great care to avoid bombing residential areas.


Related Coverage
› Russia's Lavrov, U.S.' Kerry discuss Syria peace talks

Separately, the heavy Russian bombing campaign continued unabated in northern Syria on Saturday with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights saying the areas hit included rebel-held villages and towns in the Aleppo countryside near the border with Turkey.


AIR STRIKES AND SHELLING

Russian air strikes were also reported by the group in Hama province and in the eastern province of Deir al Zor where scores of people were killed in the aerial attacks on Islamic State- controlled towns in the territory that also borders Iraq, according to residents.

At least 40 people, including women and children, were injured when the army shelled a camp where over 3,000 displaced people had taken shelter, according to a rebel spokesperson from the First Coastal Division brigade who spoke from the area along the Turkish border in northwestern Latakia.

Heavy clashes also continued in the Latakia countryside where the Syrian army backed by intensive Russian carpet bombing in the rugged mountainous area allowed the government to regain most of the countryside close to the coastal heartland of Assad's Alawite sect.

In separate comments before heading to Geneva, Zoubi said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry gave assurances by phone to the HNC's leadership, saying Washington supported a U.N.-backed political transition period without Assad, a bone of contention among warring parties.

The HNC also has been under pressure from mainstream armed groups represented within it not to give in to Western pressure, with some rebel groups already threatening to pull out of the body.


(Additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva, Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow, John Irish in Paris, Michelle Marin in Berlin Writing by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; Editing by Tom Heneghan, Stephen Powell and Bill Trott)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...hink_troop_numbers_in_afghanistan_108968.html

January 30, 2016

Obama Forced Again to Rethink Troop Numbers in Afghanistan

By Deb Riechmann & Robert Burns

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fifteen years into the war that few Americans talk about any more, conditions in Afghanistan are getting worse, preventing the clean ending that President Barack Obama hoped to impose before leaving office. Violence is on the rise, the Taliban are staging new offensives, the Islamic State group is angling for a foothold and peace prospects are dim.

Afghanistan remains a danger zone. It's hobbled by a weak economy that's sapping public confidence in the new government. Afghan police and soldiers are struggling to hold together the country 13 months after the U.S.-led military coalition culled its numbers by 90 percent.

The bottom line: For a second time, Obama is rethinking his plan to drop U.S. troop levels from 9,800 to 5,500 before he leaves office in January 2017.

"I don't see any drawdowns" in the near future, said James Dobbins, Obama's former special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He predicted Obama would leave the decision to the next president.

"They are just hoping that things hold together and they won't have to face a decision on whether to actually implement the force reduction they're talking about until late summer, early fall, by which time the administration will be on its last legs," Dobbins said.

Top military officials, as well as Republicans and Democrats in Congress, think that trimming the force any more during Obama's presidency is a bad idea. Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Thursday that Afghanistan was in a "crisis situation."

"As the security situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate, it makes no strategic or military sense to continue the withdrawal of American forces," said McCain, who frequently criticizes Obama's national security policy.

It's been a tough year on the Afghan battlefield.

Afghan soldiers and policemen — bankrolled by $4.1 billion in U.S. taxpayer money — fought virtually on their own last year for the first time since the U.S. invasion in 2001. NATO officials have told The Associated Press that Afghan troops are displaying prowess, but suffering sustained heavy casualties — 28 percent higher in 2015 than before the international combat mission ended in December 2014.

Lt. Gen. John "Mick" Nicholson, Obama's pick to be the next top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said at his Senate confirmation hearing Thursday that the Afghan security forces have "more than held their own against the insurgency," but are not yet "self-sustainable."

Asked whether the U.S. effort in 2015 had resulted in gains or losses, Nicholson replied: "The Taliban came at the Afghan security forces more intensely than perhaps we anticipated. Because of that, we did not make the advances we ... thought we would make."

When U.S. and other foreign troops left on an announced schedule, the Taliban pounced.

Last fall, the militants briefly seized Kunduz, a city of 300,000 in northern Afghanistan. It marked the Taliban's first capture of a major city since before the U.S.-led invasion and was marred by the mistaken U.S. strike on a charity hospital run by Doctors Without Borders, killing 42 people.

Hamdullah Mohib, Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, acknowledged that Kunduz was a setback. But he said it also reminded Afghans what life was like under the Taliban.

"They don't want to return to that," he said.

In the south, Afghan army units have been engaged in fierce fights with the Taliban for months in Helmand province, where militants sow more than $3 billion a year in opium revenue.

The Afghan army in Helmand has been plagued by incompetence and ineffectiveness, partly due to corruption among top officers who are suspected of siphoning off money from salaries, food, fuel and equipment. In recent weeks, the Afghan military has fired and replaced top Afghan army leaders there.

Also in the south, U.S. and Afghan forces last year killed 150 to 200 al-Qaida members in a large training camp, complete with tunnels, that was discovered in neighboring Kandahar province, another militant stronghold. Seth Jones, a RAND Corp. analyst who served as an adviser to the U.S. military in Afghanistan, noted that at the beginning of the Obama administration, the U.S. talked of there being fewer than 100 members of al-Qaida in Afghanistan. "Now we're talking about 200 in Kandahar province alone?"

The Defense Department told Congress in a report last month that violence is rising in much of the country and the Taliban can be expected to build momentum. It also portrayed the Afghan forces as favoring a defensive crouch that limits their ability to go after the Taliban in some areas.

In a different report to Congress this week, the U.S. government's Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction said the Taliban now control more territory than at any time since 2001.

A current Afghan official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, acknowledged the army's many setbacks this year, but said the Taliban had sought to achieve major victories after the U.S.-led coalition announced it would end its combat mission on Dec. 31, 2015. Instead, they failed to retake huge swaths of land, he said.

He also noted that Afghan plans to shift its military from a conventional force to one that's more mobile and nimble to respond to the guerrilla-type warfare conducted by the Taliban. He said 2016 "is going to see some changes."

Obama already backtracked once on drawing down the American force.

Initially, he had announced plans to reduce the force to 5,500 troops by the end of last year, and to 1,000 by the end of 2016. Last fall, Obama changed his mind, saying the situation remained too fragile for the American military to leave. He announced plans to keep the current force of about 9,800 in place through most of 2016 to perform not in an offensive combat role but to continue counterterrorism missions and advise Afghans battling a resurgent Taliban.

While the Taliban is fighting turf battles against IS in some places, the Afghan and U.S. forces worry that the brutal militant network — estimated at 1,000 to 3,000 strong in Afghanistan — could gain a foothold, cause further instability and use Afghanistan as a new base from which to plan attacks on the West.

The Obama administration recently expanded the U.S. military's authority to offensively target IS militants in Afghanistan in addition to al-Qaida.

If security is weak, the economy might be worse.

Mohammad Qayoumi, an Afghan native who left his job as president of San Jose University in California to advise President Ashraf Ghani, said that when the bulk of the foreign forces left the country, 500,000 Afghan jobs were lost. But he said the Afghan government has many economic development projects in the works to help wean the nation off international assistance.

Qayoumi, who briefed reporters recently in Washington, rattled off a list of infrastructure and construction projects planned. "No country has gone from poverty to prosperity through grants and aid," he said.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...d-china-struggles-warplane-engine-technology/

Asia Pacific

Despite military build-up, China struggles with warplane engine technology

by Siva Govindasamy
Reuters
Jan 31, 2016

SINGAPORE – China has built a potent military machine over the past 30 years but is struggling to develop advanced engines that would allow its warplanes to match Western fighters in combat, foreign and Chinese industry sources said.

The country’s engine technology lags that of United Technologies unit Pratt & Whitney, General Electric and Rolls-Royce, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

China’s Defense Ministry said in a brief statement that there was a “definite gap” between Chinese military technology and some developed countries, adding Beijing would continue to strengthen its armed forces.

Western restrictions on arms exports to China prohibit the sale of Western engines for military use, forcing China to rely on homegrown designs or engines Russia has agreed to sell.

“Chinese engine-makers face a multitude of problems,” said Michael Raska, assistant professor in the Military Transformations Program at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Among the issues, China’s J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters cannot supercruise, or fly at supersonic speeds like their closest rivals, Lockheed Martin’s F-22 and F-35 stealth planes, without using after-burners, said two industry sources who follow Beijing’s military programs closely.

After-burners remove a warplane’s stealthiness, a capability that allows them to escape radar detection.

Even the warplane engine that experts consider to be China’s best has reliability issues, said the sources, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

A Chinese military expert, who has knowledge of the government’s defense policy but who declined to be identified, said Chinese fighter jets could not perform as well as American warplanes because of inferior engine technology.

That puts China at a disadvantage should its warplanes be pitted against U.S. fighter jets or those from security ally Japan in Asia’s disputed waters, the industry sources and security experts said.

Chinese warplanes are likely to come into increasing contact with U.S. fighters over the South China Sea in the years ahead after Beijing conducted its first test flights last month to one of three island runways it is building in the contested Spratly archipelago, security experts said.

In any conflict, China would likely rely on sheer numbers of fighters as well as a growing arsenal of sophisticated missiles that can be launched from warships or land, they added.

To be sure, China has made warplane engine development a priority in recent years, sources said.

The Shanghai-based Galleon group, which provides consulting services to the aerospace industry, estimates Beijing will spend $300 billion over the next 20 years on civil and military aircraft engine programs.

Some sources said China had hired several foreign engineers and former air force personnel to work on engine development, although this could not be independently confirmed. The Chinese Defense Ministry declined to comment.

“In 20 to 30 years time, given the amount of work they have done and the effort they are putting into it, they should have a viable military engine,” said Greg Waldron, Asia Managing Editor at Flightglobal, an industry publication.

China first manufactured warplanes under license from Russia in the 1950s. Its indigenous fighter jet program kicked into full swing in the 1980s.

The country’s best warplane engine is the WS-10A Taihang, made by Shenyang Aeroengine Research Institute, a subsidiary of China’s biggest state-owned aerospace and defense company, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), the sources said.

In development since the late 1980s, Chinese state media reports say more than 250 have been fitted to some fourth-generation J-10s and J-11s.

But the engines don’t produce enough thrust, or power, and need frequent repairs, the sources added.

“They are trying to improve the Taihang, but reliability is a major problem,” one source said.

AVIC did not respond to a request for comment while Shenyang Aeroengine Research Institute could not be reached for comment.

In October, state media said three engine-makers owned by AVIC would merge into one firm.

China will do more to integrate other engine-making firms in the coming years, a Chinese source in the country’s aerospace industry said.

This would help coordination across civilian and military engine research and development and production, the source said.

The Defense Ministry declined to comment.

To cover gaps for now, China has fitted Russian engines on many of its warplanes.

In November, China held talks with Russian state-owned aircraft engine manufacturer United Engine Corp. on the possible joint development and production of military engines at the same time it signed a deal to buy 24 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, one of Moscow’s most advanced warplanes.

The Chinese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the status of the discussions.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/31/us/mexico-border-sinaloa-cartel-raid/

24 Sinaloa cartel members arrested in U.S.-Mexico border raid

By Joshua Berlinger and Joe Sutton, CNN
Updated 9:42 AM ET, Sun January 31, 2016

(CNN)—A cross-border raid by U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials resulted in the arrest of 24 Sinaloa cartel members, authorities said.

The sting occurred around the Arizona border with Mexico on Friday, local media reported.

It also netted "assault-type weapons" and hundreds of pounds of narcotics, said spokeswoman Gillian M. Christensen of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The raid, dubbed Mexican Operation Diablo Express, targeted "high-level" Sinaloa cartel members who operate in the United States and Sonora state, Mexico.

Mexican federal officers were brought in to the United States to ensure safety during the operation.

"Due to the sensitive nature, this operation was conducted with utmost secrecy to maintain the element of surprise and to ensure the safety of the Mexican law enforcement officers executing it," Christensen said.

Those arrested are in the custody of the Mexican government, but Christensen said the U.S. will seek their extradition.

"The targeted Sinaloa cell has been responsible for the importation of millions of pounds of illegal drugs, including marijuana, heroin, cocaine and methamphetamine, into the United States from Mexico,"she said.

In addition to drugs, the organization also smuggles weapons and millions of dollars into Mexico.

Various agencies took part in the raid, including Arizona law enforcement officials, the FBI, ICE, Homeland Security and the Drug Enforcement Administration.

The sting comes after Mexican forces captured Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman this month. The drug kingpin escaped from a maximum-security prison in July.

 

[Housecarl]

Boko Haram Jihadis Burn Children Alive, Slay Over 100 Villagers in Nigeria Massacre
Started by fairbanksb‎, Today 06:27 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...e-Slay-Over-100-Villagers-in-Nigeria-Massacre


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/boko-haram-accused-burning-children-alive-in-homes-near-maiduguri/

CBS/AP/ January 31, 2016, 8:33 AM

Latest Boko Haram massacres mark sad new low for group

ABUJA, Nigeria - A survivor hidden in a tree says he watched Boko Haram extremists firebomb huts and heard the screams of children among people burned to death in the latest attack by Nigeria's homegrown Islamic extremists.

Scores of charred corpses and bodies with bullet wounds littered the streets from Saturday night's attack on Dalori village just 3 miles from Maiduguri, the birthplace of Boko Haram and the biggest city in the northeast, according to survivors and soldiers.

The shooting and burning continued for four hours, survivor Alamin Bakura said, weeping on a telephone call to The Associated Press. He said several of his family members were killed or wounded.

The violence continued as three female suicide bombers blew up among people who managed to flee to neighboring Gamori village, killing many people, according to a soldier at the scene who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to journalists.

It was not known how many scores of people were killed because bodies still were being collected, including from the surrounding bushes where the insurgents hunted down fleeing villagers, according to Abba Shehu, a security guard helping collect corpses.

Boko Haram has taken to attacking soft targets, increasingly with suicide bombers, since the military last year drove them out of towns and villages in northeastern Nigeria.

The new focus on more vulnerable targets picked up steam after President Muhammadu Buhari's declaration that Boko Haram has been "technically" defeated, capable of no more than suicide bombings on soft targets.

The 6-year Islamic uprising has killed about 20,000 people and driven 2.5 million from their homes. The Nigerian militants are now the world's deadliest extremist group, edging out the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to which it is affiliated.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2016/01/198_196858.html

Posted : 2016-01-31 16:44
Updated : 2016-01-31 16:44

Living with a nuclear N. Korea

By Tong Kim

Three weeks have elapsed since North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6, and the U.N. Security Council has yet to agree on a new resolution for another set of sanctions against Pyongyang. This delay is largely due to differences in interest and policy between the two most powerful, veto-wielding permanent members of the Council ¯ China and the United States.

They quickly denounced Pyongyang's nuclear test that was conducted in flagrant violation of the UN resolution. However, after five hours of discussion between their foreign ministers ¯ John Kerry and Wang Yi ¯ last week, they simply agreed to adopt another sanction resolution, but without specifying measures to be included in it. Kerry said "an accelerated effort" would be exerted to produce a new U.N. resolution.

The next resolution will have to be a stronger than one in 2013 resolution that stated it would "take significant action" in the event of a further nuclear test. All sanctions have so far failed to prevent the impoverished North from advancing its nuclear and missile programs. Wang Yi made it clear, "Sanctions are not an end in themselves." China will not support any sanctions that may "provoke new tension" and destabilize the Korean Peninsula.

During a joint press conference with Wang, Kerry made reference to a wide spectrum of sanction areas in which China has options to punish the DPRK, including trade and services, movements of ships, aviation, banking, and exchange of resources such as crude oil and coal. Kerry noted China's connections with the North as a means to helping resolve the North Korean issue.

China is not ready to bear economic and political costs by cutting off trade with North Korea. Nevertheless, China is likely to agree to a watered down version of a new sanction resolution that justifies Beijing's position of peace and dialogue in support of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. They will make sure that Pyongyang pays a price, not high enough to prompt a regime collapse.

Apparently reminded of Chinese perspectives, Kerry said, "We don't want to raise military tensions … we are not seeking additional measures." However, "additional measures," he mentioned does not include pursuing "what is necessary" to protect the United States and its friends and allies from a "declared" North Korean nuclear threat.

President Park's suggestion to replace the six-party talks with a five-party format was effectively shot down by China and Russia on its announcement even before it ever reached the other members through diplomatic channels. The goal of the suggested five party talks was readily identifiable ¯ to unite the five to punish the North.

Kerry argued that the purpose of sanctions, that should be non-punitive to the ordinary citizens of North Korea, is to bring the regime there back to the table to negotiate an end to the nuclear issue, in resonance with Beijing's emphasis on dialogue and consultation. Washington is not walking away from its commitment to economic and political assistance if Pyongyang chooses a different path. However, this rhetoric sounds like a broken record.

Washington's conditional offer of dialogue was on the table for the past seven years and it did not get anywhere near a process of denuclearization. This is not taken seriously, especially by Pyongyang, which is determined to perfect its nuclear and missile technology. Understandably, the current mood is to make the North pay a high price for its latest provocation.

If the next batch of sanctions also fails, what can be done about any further provocation whether it may be a more advanced missile test or a real, full-fledged hydrogen bomb? Sanctions were effective for bringing the Iranian government to negotiations. But North Korea is no Iran. It has little incentives from the lifting of current and future sanctions, short of a total cut off in trade with China or a total naval blockade that was never seen during peacetime.

Washington used to say whenever the North embarked on provocative behavior that it would only deepen North Korea's isolation, which this column previously argued only helps domestic politics in the North and is therefore welcomed by the elite in Pyongyang. Interestingly enough, the Obama administration removed the term isolation when denouncing the DPRK's latest nuclear test.

Now, we must think hard about whether it is still possible to deal with the North Koreans in a rational way in order to deescalate tension, secure the safety of nuclear stockpiles in North Korea, prevent proliferation of nuclear materials and technology from North Korea, and find a long-term multi-phased approach to the eventual goal of denuclearization.

To look for any positive side to North Korea's nuclear program, one should note that no nuclear accident has occurred during the development and tests of nuclear devices. Pyongyang officially maintains against international concerns that it will not proliferate nuclear materials to another state or any non-state actor. It makes bluffs about the potential use of nuclear weapons against the U.S. It says that its nuclear weapons are a deterrent and that it would use them only use such weapons if it is attacked.

There is no authentic North Korean nuclear doctrine. However, the North Korean leadership understands it would be finished upon first use of nuclear weapons. Although, Pyongyang said it would not attend any talks aiming at its denuclearization, there is a ray of hope that North Korea may give up its nuclear weapons once it is convinced its conditions are met ¯ no U.S. hostile policy, a peace mechanism, diplomatic normalization, and economic cooperation.

No sanctions, but an offer of unconditional talks, are more likely to bring back the North Koreans to the table. After the recent nuclear test, Pyongyang renewed the validity of its offer of talks on halting nuclear tests in exchange for a suspension of joint U.S.-ROK military drills and its offer of negotiations for a peace agreement. Washington in cooperation with other relevant countries concerned with the nuclear issue can counter this offer by seeking to discuss all issues including denuclearization. What's your take?

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies. He can be contacted at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-sailors-idUSKCN0V90IC

World | Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:43am EST
Related: World

Iran gives medals for capture of U.S. sailors

DUBAI

Iran's supreme leader has awarded medals to navy commanders for capturing U.S. sailors who entered Iranian territorial waters this month, Iran's state media said on Sunday.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has said Iran should remain wary of its arch-enemy the United States even after a landmark accord over Tehran's nuclear program, awarded the Fath (Victory) medal to the head of the navy of the Revolutionary Guards and four commanders involved in the seizure of two U.S. Navy boats.

Iran has awarded the Fath medal since 1989 to war heroes, military commanders and politicians, especially those linked to the eight-year Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

Iran freed the ten U.S. sailors on Jan. 13, a day after detaining them aboard the two U.S. Navy patrol boats in the Gulf, bringing a swift end to an incident that had rattled nerves shortly before the expected implementation of the nuclear accord with world powers.

The Revolutionary Guardss said it had determined the patrol boats had entered Iranian territorial waters by mistake.

The quick resolution contrasted with previous cases in which British servicemen were held by Iran for considerably longer, in once case almost two weeks.


(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Sami Aboudi and David Goodman)

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-sanctions-aviation-insight-idUSKCN0V908Q

Business | Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:54am EST
Related: World, Aerospace & Defense, Davos

'State-of-the-art' subterfuge: how Iran kept flying under sanctions

TEHRAN | By Tim Hepher

In December 2012, aircraft trader James Kim received a letter from a company based in Cyprus offering to buy four jetliners. It was brief and to the point.

The hitherto unknown firm was "ready, willing and able" to buy four used Airbus A340 jets for which Kim was trying to broker a sale.

"I talked to them and when I got the Letter of Intent with an Iranian name, I informed them that a deal was not possible because of sanctions," Kim, managing director of British-based aircraft trading company AvCon Worldwide, told Reuters.

The company that tried to buy them, registered in a Nicosia apartment with two directors with names that sounded Iranian, vanished from the radar, Kim said in a telephone interview.

The planes, for which there is little demand, remain with their Asian owner but the suspected approach typifies a shadowy trade in airplanes and parts that spanned the globe for decades.

Suspected front firms sought to trade in spare parts and even whole aircraft, according to people involved in the trade and other experts who mostly spoke on condition of anonymity.

"The Iranians would set up companies to try to do deals and then fold them up. They didn't stay around for long," said Kim.

The methods used to evade sanctions mirror those used in other countries that are or have been under international sanctions in recent decades, such as South Africa, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Iraq and North Korea.

After the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions on Jan. 16, Iran's aviation industry is coming out of the shadows.

With an order for 118 Airbus jets witnessed in Paris by President Hassan Rouhani, Iran moved swiftly to exchange a collection of vintage jets held together with smuggled parts for a new fleet capable of taking on rival Gulf carriers.

Like Cuba's preserved 1950s automobiles, the aircraft they will replace symbolize the ingenuity wrought by sanctions but also the scale of the task needed to reconnect the economy.

"Our strategy until now has just been to survive," Iranair chairman Farhad Parvaresh said.


AIRLINE "MASTERMINDS"

At Tehran's airport, rows of mothballed aircraft still sit with bright orange covers on their engines, ready to give up their parts for other old planes needing repairs.

Through constant patching, transplants from grounded donor jets and discreet purchases, Iran's fleet stayed aloft although with an alarming safety record.

"It was state-of-the-art 'Under the Table'," Heydar Vatankhah, deputy managing director for engineering and maintenance at Iran's Kish Air, said of the overall effort.

"Every airline has a mastermind on this," he said.

Vatankhah spent 31 years helping to maintain an ancient fleet at state-owned Iranair including the world's oldest passenger 747, built in 1976 before the majority of Iranians were born, according to aviation consultancy CAPA, which organized an aviation summit in Iran in January.

One Iranian airline official, who asked not to be identified, said he had obtained a Western-built engine weeks after it left the factory by passing it through three countries.

While Iran says it can manufacture parts, the preference was for genuine components, but they came at a price.

"It's simple. If this costs $10,000, I had to pay $70,000," the engineering chief of an Iranian airline said, waving a can of soda to illustrate his point.

Others said they paid four or five times over the odds.

As they did so, the middlemen prospered.

"After decades of doing this you see a lot. Everyone takes their cut. It's a dirty business," the engineering chief said.

As confidence grew, a smuggled jet flew directly to Tehran Mehrabad airport, a former senior Iranian official said.

However, Iran's covert resupply operation clashed increasingly with foreign law and intelligence agencies.

The United States has targeted dozens of front companies suspected by diplomats of links to Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, widely seen as a beneficiary of the sanctions trade.

"They (the West) listened to our calls and read our emails; of course we knew that," said one airline employee.

"But we are commercial people, not military men," he said, adding the deals had been elusive but not always complicated.

"They know where the wall is, but not where the hole is," he added.


NEW AMBITIONS, NEW CHALLENGES

The United States last year imposed sanctions on two firms in Iraq and the United Arab Emirates for helping Iran's Mahan Air purchase second-hand aircraft.

The airline, Iran's largest, was blacklisted in 2011 for allegedly ferrying operatives, arms and funds for the Revolutionary Guards' overseas unit. It remains under sanctions.

Iran says it has been forced to use the black market to preserve safety following fatal accidents and sanctions that prevented it from gaining access to parts and manuals. The West says the sanctions were effective in convincing Tehran to negotiate the recent deal on curbing its nuclear activities.

"It was a great suffering for all of us, so we haven't been able to develop in this field," lawmaker Mahdi Hashemi, head of the parliament's Development Commission, told the CAPA event.

Now, Iran's plans to absorb 500 new aircraft in the next decade look set to turn the well-worn system of improvised repairs and clandestine purchases on its head.

As middlemen dissolve into the post-sanctions landscape, with many of them expected to reinvent themselves as legitimate partners for investors, the airlines must contend with foreign regulators and insurers whose mindset is compliance.

The can-do mentality which kept Iran's rotting fleet flying through sanctions will be less welcome in future.

That means airlines must adapt to a forest of norms required by manufacturers, investors, lenders, lessors and regulators, said Mark Tierney, director of Crabtree Capital, which provides strategic advice and transaction execution services for airlines, aircraft and engine-leasing companies and financial institutions.

The problems of resuming normal operations do not end there.

A revolution in plane design has taken place while Iran was off the market. While mastering every nut and bolt of the Boeing 747, its engineers must get used to new types like the A350.

"The level of training and technology in airlines to be able to bring those aircraft in and operate without problems doesn't happen overnight," Dick Forsberg, strategy chief of leasing company Avolon, told a panel of Iranian officials.

Even with sanctions lifted, airlines may struggle to get some existing aircraft repaired while waiting for the new European jets, to which Iran hopes to add over 100 Boeings.

Many are so riddled with contraband parts that they would be unlikely to pass muster with repair shops, an engineer said.

In response, Airbus has agreed to help Tehran comply with foreign regulators and to provide repairs and training: crucial steps as Iran rebuilds its aviation industry from scratch.


(Editing by Timothy Heritage)

 

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/01/22/can_america_still_defend_taiwan_108929.html

January 22, 2016

Can America Still Defend Taiwan?

By Peter Navarro

Video

During the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, President Bill Clinton dispatched aircraft carriers in defense of Taiwan’s right to elect a pro-independence presidential candidate, Lee Teng-Hui. Now that Taiwan has once again elected a new president with pro-independence leanings – Tsai Ing-wen – this question must be asked: Will America once again defend Taiwan if Beijing threatens anew its “renegade province”?

This is very real question as Beijing has already begun to rattle sabers, swords, and missiles and threaten economic reprisals. From the White House’s and Pentagon’s perspectives, the problem is not just a fear of escalation should American carriers once again be ordered to the Taiwan Strait. China has also now developed a whole new suite of “anti-access, area denial” weapons explicitly designed to kill the American fleet – and do so in quite splendid asymmetric warfare fashion.

The most famous of these asymmetric weapons is China’s game-changing DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile – Beijing openly calls it a “carrier killer.” If the hype over this missile is to be believed, it can be launched from over a thousand miles away, descend seamlessly from space, and hit an American carrier zigzagging at 30 knots.

There is also a bigger version of the DF-21D known as the DF-26 –dubbed the “Guam killer” for its longer range. In addition, there is China’s much-hyped hypersonic glide vehicle. It can achieve speeds of Mach 10 and higher and is highly maneuverable. These two attributes make it very difficult to track and neutralize the hypersonic vehicle with America’s Aegis battle management system.

As poster children of asymmetric warfare, there are also China’s new Type 022 Houbei-class attack craft. Packing an out-sized punch, these Australia-designed catamarans can deliver swarms of cruise missiles in salvo attacks and thereby complement any coordinated anti-ship ballistic missile and hypersonic glide vehicle attacks.

Any Ship Can Be A Minesweeper – Once

There are two other classes of weapons that were conspicuously missing from the Taiwan Strait in 1996 but which now directly threaten American carriers. The first is China’s large and diverse arsenal of sea mines. Perhaps the most notable is the rocket-rising mine; it can detect the unique acoustic or magnetic signature of a US carrier and deliver a warhead traveling at up to 70 knots from the ocean bottom.

The second set of weapons not hitherto present in the Taiwan Strait crisis is China’s growing fleet of conventional diesel electric submarines – soon to be the largest in the world. These ultimate passive-aggressive weapons are extremely quiet – and therefore exceedingly lethal.

Today, many of China’s Yuan-class subs are equipped with state-of-the-art German air-independent propulsion systems. Tomorrow, Lada-class subs that may be bought from the Russians feature even more advanced sound suppression technologies.

America Turns the Tables?

This is not to say that the US can no longer defend Taiwan. Already, there is increasing talk in Pentagon halls that the next Taiwan Strait crisis may best be fought with weapons like the Virginia class attack sub – rather than the flat tops that have served the navy well for more than 70 years but which are increasingly obsolete. Here, with the US holding a clear advantage in sub warfare, America’s sub fleet may be highly effective at eliminating a whole range of Chinese threat vectors from the Taiwan Strait.

In a strategy of “Offshore Control,” America’s subs could also be deployed along the numerous chokepoints of the First Island Chain. This a natural “containment boundary” stretches from China’s home islands through the mid-point of Taiwan down to the Philippines and Indonesia. The strategic goal of Offshore Control would be to turn the anti-access, area denial tables on China by keeping both its military and commercial ships out of the Pacific. In this way, the US could apply economic pressure on China to cease its aggression.

Such speculations about a war over Taiwan are, of course, uncomfortable to air publicly. China is, after all, America’s largest trading partner and holds several trillion dollars of US debt; and as with an economically inter-dependent Kaiser Germany and Great Britain on the eve of World War I, there is much talk about how war with China is impossible.

That said, Taiwan’s latest election juxtaposed against Beijing’s increasing aggressiveness in the region and its demonstrable lack of respect for democracy in Hong Kong have rightly reawakened concerns over a new Beijing-Taipei clash – with the US caught in the middle. There is now much to discuss about an island that has been all but forgotten over the last decade as cross-strait relations have dramatically improved and economic ties between Mainland China and Taiwan have tightened.

That those “good old days” may now be gone is a reality that should not be ignored. Not by presidents or Pentagon analysts. And certainly not by the 2016 presidential candidates, one of who will certainly find this cross-strait hot potato in his or her lap.


Peter Navarro is a professor at the University of California-Irvine. He is the author of Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World (Prometheus Books) and director of the companion Crouching Tiger documentary film series. His BookTV talk at the Center for a New American Security will be broadcast on January 24 at 12:00 EST on C-SPAN2 featuring Patrick Cronin, Stefan Halper, and Toshi Yoshihara. For more information and to access film interview clips, visit www.crouchingtiger.net

 

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...i-tech-shock-to-west-and-israel-a6842711.html

News
›World
›Middle East
.
War in Syria: Russia’s 'rustbucket' military delivers a hi-tech shock to West and Israel

As the Kremlin showcases its military capabilities in Syria, Kim Sengupta says Nato leaders are having to reassess

Kim Sengupta |Saturday 30 January 2016| 240 Comments

Their army’s equipment and strategy was “outmoded”; their air force’s bombs and missiles were “more dumb than smart”; their navy was “more rust than ready”. For decades, this was Western military leaders’ view, steeped in condescension, of their Russian counterparts. What they have seen in Syria and Ukraine has come as a shock.

Russian military jets have, at times, been carrying out more sorties in a day in Syria than the US-led coalition has done in a month. The Russian navy has launched ballistic missiles from the Caspian Sea 900 miles way, and kept supply lines going to Syria. The air defences installed by the Russians in Syria and eastern Ukraine would make it extremely hazardous for the West to carry out strikes against the Assad regime or Ukrainian separatists.

Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the commander of the US army in Europe, has described Russian advances in electronic warfare in Syria and Ukraine – a field in which they were typically supposed to be backward – as “eye watering”.

Russia: Russian Tu-22M3 bomber takes aim at IS positions near Deir-ez-Zor

The chief of US Air Force operations in Europe and Africa, Lieutenant General Frank Gorenc, has disclosed that Moscow is now deploying anti-aircraft systems in Crimea, which the Kremlin annexed from Ukraine last year, and in Kaliningrad, an enclave between Lithuania and Poland. It is doing so, he says, in a way that makes it “very, very difficult” for Nato planes to gain access safely to areas including parts of Poland.

It is not just Nato member states watching the Russians with concern. Israel, too, sees the build-up of Russian weaponry across its northern border in Syria and wonders where it will all end. Their apprehension is that the advanced equipment already in situ in the Middle East will end up with Iran, viewed as an existential threat to the Jewish state, or with other Arab countries, thus eroding the air superiority that is Israel’s primary advantage over its neighbours.


Read more

This is the brutal effect of war on the women of Syria


It is this military might that is underpinning President Vladimir Putin’s strategic triumphs. His intervention in Syria has been a game changer and what happens there now lies, to a large extent, in his hands. The Ukraine conflict is semi-frozen, on his terms. The Russians are allying with the Kurds, unfazed by the Turkish anger this has provoked. And, crucially, they are now returning to Egypt to an extent not seen for 44 years, since they were kicked out by President Anwar Sadat.

One of the most senior analysts in Israeli military intelligence told The Independent in Tel Aviv last week: “Anyone who wants anything done in this region is beating a path to Moscow.”

Mr Putin has relished pointing out the significance of the West seeing “for the first time that these weapons do exist, that they are of high quality, and that we have well-trained people who can put them to effective use. They have now seen, too, that Russia is ready to use them if this is in the interest of our country and our people.”

In pictures: Russian air strikes in Syria
10 show all

In Syria the Russians have been conducting as many air strikes a day, up to 96, as the US-led coalition has carried out in a month. This is in marked contrast, Western military planners have noted, to how quickly Nato began to feel the strain when bombing Libya and Kosovo.

One reason for the dearth of coalition sorties is that its Sunni state members are carrying out scarcely any missions, focusing instead on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Operations by Turkey, meanwhile, have been overwhelmingly against the Kurds rather than Isis.

Western defence officials also contend that the Russians are hitting other rebel groups in the guise of attacking Isis and that they are more indiscriminate in their targeting because they are less sensitive to any evidence of civilian casualties and because of their lack of precision-guided weaponry.

But Russia had never promised it was going to attack only Isis. Instead, it declared that “all terrorists” would be targeted. This, conveniently for Mr Putin and President Bashar al-Assad, has included more moderate rebel groups. Experience of the Chechen wars show that the Kremlin is, indeed, more prepared to shrug off “collateral damage” than the West. It is also true that there were not enough Russian guided bombs and missiles in the first stage of the Syrian mission: Moscow’s claim that it has used precision weapons alone does not stand up to scrutiny.

The aircraft, missiles and bombs used at first were a mix of old, dating from the Soviet era, and relatively new. There are 34 fixed-wing aircraft based at Latakia: 12 Su-25s and four Su-30SM fighter-bombers; 12 ageing Su-24M2s and six Su-34s. There are also helicopters and an unspecified number of drones.

However, more of the most advanced of these, the Su-34, codenamed Fullback by Nato, have been replacing older aircraft. One reason for this is that aircraft such as the Su-25, a veteran of the wars in Chechnya and Georgia, are vulnerable to Manpads – shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles – which Moscow suspects the Turks and the Saudis have been supplying to Sunni rebels.


Read more

Agreement at Syrian peace talks depends on action by the US and Russia
Turkish nationalist suspected of killing Russian pilot in Syria
Russian and Syrian bombing raids 'kill 43 children'

The introduction by the Kremlin of advanced air-defence systems has gained impetus since the shooting down of a Russian jet by the Turks. The S-400 Triumph system is a source of great Israeli worry should it fall into “wrong hands”. This has an array radar that continuously monitors the skies, and a missile battery which can shoot down targets 250 miles away. One such array is positioned at the Russian base at Latakia and covers half of Israeli airspace.

The deployment of Russian electronic warfare equipment in Ukraine and Syria, such as the Krasukha-4 which can jam Awacs and satellite radar systems, has been another sobering experience for Nato. Ronald Pontius, deputy to the US Army head of cyber command, stated: “You cannot but come to the conclusion that we are not making progress at the pace the threat demands.”

Gen Gorenc, while bemoaning the proliferation by Russia and worrying about Nato’s capabilities, acknowledged that Russia was not breaking any international agreements and “has every right” to deploy these systems. In Syria, he said, the Russians were using “cruise missiles, they are using bombers. It is clear that they are desiring to show the ability they have to affect not just regional events, but worldwide events.”

That, indeed, is the point. The question for the West is whether to react to this by initiating a new chapter of confrontation with Moscow, or one of greater accommodation.

 

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/0...ll-dozens-as-kerry-pushes-peaceful-syria.html

ISIS claims bombings that kill dozens, as Kerry pushes 'peaceful' Syria

Published January 31, 2016
· FoxNews.com

Hours after an ISIS-claimed triple bombing killed at least 45 in Damascus, Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday addressed the ongoing Syrian conflict, speaking starkly about a humanitarian crisis in which starving villagers have been forced to eat grass and leaves, but also hopefully of creating a “peaceful, pluralistic Syria.”

That optimistic note, however, was overshadowed by the deadly blasts in the Syrian capital, which Kerry mentioned near the end of his speech.

Syria's state news agency SANA said the bombings went off in Sayyda Zeinab, a predominantly Shiite Muslim suburb of Damascus. The blasts went off about 600 yards from one of the holiest shrines for Shiite Muslims. SANA said the attackers detonated a car bomb at a bus stop and that two suicide bombers then set off more explosives as rescuers rushed to the area.

State TV showed several burning cars and a scorched bus, as well as blown out windows, twisted metal and large holes in the facade of a nearby apartment building. The golden-domed Shiite shrine itself was not damaged.

At least 50 people were killed, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said, with more than 100 wounded.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based opposition group that monitors the conflict, said at least 63 people were killed, including 25 pro-government Shiite fighters. It said the dead fighters included Syrians and foreigners.

The suburb is one of the first areas where Lebanon's Hezbollah group sent fighters in 2012 to protect it from Sunni extremists who vowed to blow up the shrine. Hezbollah and Shiite groups from Iraq are known to have fighters in the area.

An ISIS-affiliated website said the blasts were carried out by members of the extremist group, which controls large areas in both Syria and Iraq.

As Damascus attempted to recover from the fresh carnage, groups from both sides of the Syrian conflict endeavored to push on after a rocky start to U.N.-hosted indirect peace talks in Geneva.

“The world needs to push in one direction: Stopping the oppression and suffering of the Syrian people and ending, not prolonging, this war,” said Kerry, who spoke from Geneva.

The talks got off to a rocky start Friday, with U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura meeting only with a Syrian government delegation.

A delegation of the main opposition group said it will not take part in the indirect talks until its demands are met, including lifting the siege imposed on rebel-held areas and an end to Russian and Syrian bombardment of regions controlled by opposition fighters.

Kerry, during his address, urged the disparate opposition factions and the Syrian government to come together to end “an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe unmatched since World War II.

“In light of what is at stake in these talks, I appeal to both sides to make the most of this moment,” he said.

The primary goals of the Geneva talks, Kerry said, are to arrange for a nationwide ceasefire and establish a path to a political transition from the regime of President Bashar Assad.

“The people of Syria deserve a real choice about the kind of future they want,” Kerry said. “Not a choice between brutal oppression on one side and terrorist on the other. That’s the kind of choice the Assad regime would like to offer.”

Kerry pegged the number of Syrians in need of humanitarian aid at 13.5 million and spoke of people dying from starvation and others “being described as walking skeletons.” UNICEF has said 2.6 million children are no longer in school and 2 million more are living as refugees in neighboring countries or are on the run.

Kerry said ending the Syrian conflict would benefit the world community by ending the migrant crisis and would “cut the legs out from under” ISIS.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

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http://www.voanews.com/content/netanyahu-hamas-tunnels/3171189.html

Netanyahu Warns Hamas on Use of Tunnels to Attack Israel
VOA News
January 31, 2016 8:47 PM

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday if Hamas dares to attack Israel through cross-border tunnels from Gaza, Israel will retaliate with force greater than the 2014 war.

"I think that is understood in the region. It's understood in the world. I hope we won't need to do it but our abilities, both defensive and offensive, are developing rapidly and I wouldn't recommend anyone to try us," Netanyahu told a group of diplomats.

A top Hamas official boasted Friday that the group has built "twice the number of resistance tunnels" that were built during the war in Vietnam in the 1960s and 70s.

He said hundreds of Hamas members are working to build tunnels to free what he described as holy places, including the al-Aqsa mosque in east Jerusalem - a site Jews revere as the Temple Mount.

Israelis living near the border with the Gaza Strip have been complaining of underground drilling and construction noises near their homes.

Israeli forces bombarded Hamas and militant Palestinians in Gaza in the summer of 2014 in response to Palestinian rocket fire.

The fighting killed more than 2,200 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and obliterated entire neighborhoods. About 70 Israeli soldiers and a handful of civilians died.

Also in an historic decision Sunday, the Israeli Cabinet approved a so-called egalitarian Jewish prayer space near the Western Wall, where Jews from all over the world of both sexes and religious beliefs can pray together.

A group of Israeli and diaspora Jews called "Women of the Wall" had been demanding access to the prayer space for nearly 30 years, unhappy with Orthodox control over who was allowed to pray at the site.

The Western Wall is Judaism's holiest site. It is the last scrap of the wall that surrounded the ancient temple. Under Orthodox tradition, men and women are segregated when they pray.

Under the new rules, men and women - Orthodox and reform Jews - can pray together at a special site known as Robinson's Arch.

Women of the Wall says the Israeli government acknowledges full equality and autonomy. Netanyahu said it is a "fair and creative solution" that will unite the Jewish people.

Many Orthodox Jews, including Cabinet members who voted against the move, condemn it as an affront to tradition.

 

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http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-attacks-sinai-leave-four-security-forces-dead-235915919.html

Egypt attacks in Sinai leave four security forces dead: officials

AFP
6 hours ago

Cairo (AFP) - Two Egyptian policemen and two soldiers were killed on Sunday in two bombing attacks in the country's restive Sinai Peninsula, where Islamic State (IS) jihadists have regularly attacked security forces.

In one attack at dawn, a remotely-detonated bomb hit a police vehicle as security forces were carrying out a search operation in the Rafah region, on the border with the Gaza Strip, killing two policemen, officials said.

An army officer and a soldier were also killed in a similar attack in the Sheikh Zuwaid region of northern Sinai, the officials added.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility but the region is an IS stronghold.

Jihadists have regularly attacked security forces in the peninsula since the army ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013.

They say their attacks are in retaliation for a government crackdown targeting Morsi supporters that has left hundreds dead and thousands imprisoned.

The authorities say hundreds of policemen and soldiers have been killed in attacks, mainly in North Sinai, since 2013.

Egypt's branch of IS also said it planted a bomb that caused the crash of a Russian airliner in the Sinai in October, killing all 224 people on board.

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http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...pe-to-remove-chaos-from-the-migration-crisis/

The Great Debate

A way for Europe to remove chaos from the migration crisis

By Kenneth Roth
February 1, 2016

ISTANBUL — The last year shattered any belief that the European Union was immune to the global refugee crisis. The desperation of people fleeing conflicts and violence in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and repression in Eritrea proved greater than the dangers of crossing the Mediterranean, particularly as people, aided by social media, discovered smuggling networks exploiting the proximity of Turkey’s coast to the Greek islands.

The chaotic mass movement of people that followed left some 4,000 dead at sea, including at least 250 in January. Meanwhile, the successful arrival of a million people fueled fears that Europe’s borders had become indefensible.

In fact, one million asylum-seekers, representing 0.2 percent of the EU’s overall population, would be manageable if the EU implemented its common asylum policy and distributed responsibility for processing asylum claims fairly among its members. The burden obviously grows when most asylum seekers concentrate in one or two countries. But even if all settled in Germany, that would still represent only 1.25 percent of its population, less than the 3 percent of the population that Syrian refugees comprise in Turkey and the 25 percent in Lebanon, neither of which has Germany’s capacity to receive and integrate refugees.

However, the disorderly nature of the flow has itself spurred anxiety. The threat of terrorism has so far proven much greater from disaffected second-generation Europeans of immigrant background than the first-generation refugees who are overwhelmingly grateful to have found a safe refuge. But the Paris attacks prompted concern that the Islamic State (or ISIS) might profit from the chaos to slip in its own operatives. Citing crimes against women in Cologne and elsewhere, populist politicians in Europe also sought to stoke nightmares of endless arrivals radically changing Europe’s economic, religious and cultural nature.

It is time for the EU to recognize that the mismanaged, chaotic nature of the recent refugee flow is as much — if not more — of a threat than the number of refugees itself.

The answer lies in creating a safe and legal route for refugees to find their way to Europe. If refugees were given the option of having their claims for asylum heard in countries of first refuge such as Turkey and Lebanon, many would exercise that option rather than risk their lives — and the lives of their families — on rickety boats at sea. Their willingness to pursue that option would require their confidence that those with valid asylum claims would be moved to a place of refuge within a reasonable period, which in turn would depend on EU member states finally agreeing on genuine responsibility for sharing and creating adequate capacity to process and resettle large numbers of people.

Generous resettlement and humanitarian admission programs would put the EU in a better position to ask other nations to assume a more proportionate share of the burden, rather than the modest (or non-existent) numbers currently being accepted by such countries as the United States, Brazil, Russia, and the Gulf states. These other states would have less ground to insist that the refugees are Europe’s problem alone before the asylum seekers actually arrive in Europe.

A screening process would also provide better assurance that the refugees ultimately accepted for Europe are not would-be terrorists. ISIS might still try to infiltrate attackers into Europe, but a reduced flow of people arriving chaotically at sea would make that more difficult.

By filtering out economic migrants, refugee screening would help to demonstrate that the flow of people to Europe will not be endless. Economic migrants would still try to reach Europe, as they always have, and Europe will need some of them, but irregular migration would be harder without a flood of refugees to hide among.

Moreover, while the number of genuine refugees fleeing war and repression is substantial, many of them hope ultimately to return home. They could be convinced by more generous humanitarian assistance to stay in countries of first refuge, so long as they were assured of the right to work and send their children to school. Such voluntary enticements are far preferable to coercively blocking people’s right to flee.

Finally, a more orderly process for asylum-seekers will help to undercut Europe’s demagogues. Politics are often more about perception than reality, so even though Europe can handle the refugee flow to date, the chaos has provided powerful fuel to the fear-mongers.

Establishing safe and legal routes for asylum-seekers to reach EU can thus be a win-win for all. Many asylum-seekers could find safety without first risking their lives. And the EU could reassert more control over its borders without sacrificing its values.

 

[Possible Impact]

Yury Barmin ‏@yurybarmin 2h
This is huge: Russia suspects that Turkey's Grey Wolves,
whose member shot SU-24 pilot in Syria,
are also involved in the Sinai plane crash



Haaretz.com ‏@haaretzcom 16h
What the latest Snowden leaks tell us about the Israel-Russia relationship
- @anshelpfeffer http://htz.li/4BS

iad tawil ‏@IadArtwork 15h
NewCartoon: #Kerry and "Syrian opposition" in #GenevaPeaceTalks.
#Geneva #GenevaIII #Syria.

 

[Housecarl]

Yury Barmin þ@yurybarmin 2h
This is huge: Russia suspects that Turkey's Grey Wolves,
whose member shot SU-24 pilot in Syria,
are also involved in the Sinai plane crash



Haaretz.com þ@haaretzcom 16h
What the latest Snowden leaks tell us about the Israel-Russia relationship
- @anshelpfeffer http://htz.li/4BS

iad tawil þ@IadArtwork 15h
NewCartoon: #Kerry and "Syrian opposition" in #GenevaPeaceTalks.
#Geneva #GenevaIII #Syria.

If the Russians are floating that theory openly, things are going to get real dumb real fast.

Turkish Nationalist Group Grey Wolves Linked to A321 Flight Terror Attack in Sinai - FSB
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 07:12 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ked-to-A321-Flight-Terror-Attack-in-Sinai-FSB

Russia deploys Su-35S fighters to Syria
Started by Possible Impact‎, Yesterday 12:26 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?483522-Russia-deploys-Su-35S-fighters-to-Syria

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...rug-lords-fighting-for-el-chapo-s-throne.html

VALLEY OF DEATH01.30.16 9:15 PM ET

The Young Drug Lords Fighting for El Chapo’s Throne

As the ‘kingpins’ get picked off, in the valley known as Tierra Caliente a new generation of hyper-violent cartel killers is making El Chapo look almost benign

Jeremy Kryt

MEXICO CITY, Mexico — Some locals call the long, arid valley Tierra Caliente, or the Hot Land. To others it’s Infiernillo, which means Little Hell.

Such colorful nicknames refer to more than just the scorching climate: the Hot Land is also the newest front line in the Mexican Drug War.

Running through southwestern Guerrero state, where 43 students disappeared in September of 2014, the infernal vale encompasses some of the deadliest country in the hemisphere.

While other major cartel umbrella groups—like Chapo Guzmán’s Sinaloa cartel federation—have been weakened by loss of leadership and infighting over the last year, intelligence reports show dozens of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Tierra Caliente growing stronger in 2016.

And with good reason. Tierra Caliente has already eclipsed Mexico’s famous “Golden Triangle” as the prime heroin production zone, with most of the smack headed straight for the booming U.S. market.

All that heroin-derived revenue allows the Hot Land’s cartels to prey, vampire-like, on the region’s farmers, business owners, and politicians. The gangs’ preferred terror tactics include kidnapping, extortion, rape, murder, and even organ trafficking.

In just the last three months, there have been more than 340 murders in Tierra Caliente and neighboring municipalities. In January alone, authorities recorded at least 35 “forced disappearances,” including several children, causing schools to close throughout the region.

In addition to targeting civilians, local gangs also engage in bloody, shockingly brutal turf wars. As the narcos duke it out over local drug-production plazas, innocent civilians are often caught up in the chaos.

“There’s a human-rights crisis in Tierra Caliente, and it’s not being attended to,” says Laura Carlsen, director of the Mexico City-based Americas Program, in an interview with The Daily Beast.

“I’ve been in Mexico for 30 years,” Carlsen says, “But I never imagined that we could see the levels of violence happening now.”

The rugged mountain ranges on either side of Tierra Caliente tend to soak up most of the rainfall, leading to the desert-like conditions in the valley below. The nearby high country also provides excellent cover for the mass production of opium and heroin, as well as crystal meth.

Unlike local rainfall, illicit drugs do flow all the way downhill into the Hot Land, as traffickers prefer to move their product out along the flat, paved valley roads. Conflict over these shipping routes can be fierce. According to Carlsen, whole villages have been displaced, as the regional mafias struggle for dominance.

These new gangs have names like Los Rojos (The Reds), Guerreros Unidos (Warrior’s United) and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. And those upstart DTOs have a different, far more violent ethos than the old cartel vanguard, which was personified by Chapo Guzmán.

One disturbingly common tactic in Tierra Caliente is skinning off victims’ faces while they’re still alive. Other go-to moves out of the cartel playbook include using chain saws and other power tools as torture devices, ISIS-style beheadings, and dissolving people in vats of acid.

Many experts believe the increased violence in places like Tierra Caliente is indicative of the failure of the DEA-sponsored “Kingpin Strategy,” which emphasizes hunting down high-ranking cartel leaders, as opposed to stressing interdiction efforts.

Once a given crime lord is taken down, critics say, it almost always touches off a battle among his seconds and lieutenants, as they seek to take over and gain power for themselves.

“When a cartel divides and forms new groups—well, those new groups need to find sources of income,” says Mayra Jiménez, an independent Mexican journalist who has covered the Tierra Caliente region for more than a decade. “That drives them to take over new plazas, and to extort and kidnap people in them.”

For example, some of the most powerful cartels in Guerrero—including the Rojos and the Guerreros Unidos—are splinters of the Beltran-Leyva organization, which the Mexican government took down in 2011.

Competition among such factions has led directly to the new, no-holds-barred tactics.

Turf wars have become more violent, as each group seeks to send a message about “who’s the toughest dog on the block,” says America’s Program Director Carlsen, who just returned from a research trip to Tierra Caliente.

All those dog fights have taken a drastic toll on the quality of every-day life.

“Cartel activity really restricts freedom of movement,” says reporter Jiménez. “People know they can’t be out on the street after 6 or 7 at night. And even during the day, the roads aren’t safe.”

Meanwhile, the cartels are suppressing freedom of the press.

“We can’t even write about what the narcos are doing without putting ourselves at risk,” says Jiménez, who also lives in the Tierra Caliente. “If you say something they don’t like, they’ll hunt you down and kill you. Or they’ll hunt down your family.”

As with so many places in Mexico, authorities seem helpless to curb the violence. A major government offensive in 2014 established a powerful police and military presence in this little inferno, complete with scores of stop-and-search checkpoints. But the number of killings, abductions, and other crimes has actually surged during the occupation—as has drug production.

“A real question is raised here,” says Carlsen. “If the federal government is in charge—why is the violence [in Tierra Caliente] on the rise?”

Carlsen hints at a dark, “deductive” answer to her own question: that federal forces in the area are “complicit with the cartels.”

“All access roads are controlled by the military, yet there’s still a huge flow of drugs,” says Carlsen.

“The responsibility of the state to guarantee human rights and security—is simply not being met,” she says.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/japa...o-fend-off-chinas-advances-in-east-china-sea/

Japan Forms New Air Wing to Fend off China’s Advances in East China Sea

Tokyo has recently doubled the number of fighter jets stationed at Okinawa’s Naha Air Base.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
February 01, 2016

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For the first time in about 50 years, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) has stood up a new air wing consisting of Mitsubishi F-15J all-weather air superiority fighters at Naha Air Base, located in the capital city of Okinawa, Japan’s most southern prefecture, according to local media reports.

The stationing of additional fighter jets is part of Tokyo’s efforts to enhance the defenses of the Ryukyu Islands chain (known in Japanese as the Nansei islands), which stretches southwest from Kyushu to Taiwan. The push comes amidst China’s growing assertiveness and military presence in the East China Sea — Beijing and Tokyo both claim sovereignty over a group of uninhabited islands there, known in Japan as the Senkakus and in China as the Diaoyus.

As The Diplomat reported in October 2015, the JASDF had to dispatch its fighter jets 117 times against Chinese aircraft in the third quarter of 2015, up from 103 times in the same period in 2014. Most of the encounters occurred in the East China Sea. Overall, JASDF jets were scrambled 441 times from Naha Air Base in 2015, against mostly against incursions from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

The new JASDF unit, the 9th Air Wing, was officially stood up on Sunday during a ceremony at Naha Air Base, where Japan’s Parliamentary Vice Minister of Defense Kenji Wakamiya handed the flag for the new air wing to the unit’s commander, Kiyoaki Kawanami, NHK World reports.

“This is a very front line of national defense,” Wakamiya said in a speech during the ceremony. Japan dispatched 20 additional F-15J fighter jets from Tsuiki Air Base in the southwestern island of Kyushu to Naha, bringing up the total strength of the new air wing in Okinawa to 40.

Japan currently fields around 215 F-15J (including the upgraded F-15DJ/F-15J Kai versions) all-weather air superiority fighters built under license by Japanese defense contractor Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. However, despite modernization efforts, there have been concerns that the F-15J, first introduced in the JASDF in 1981, is no longer adequate to deter the PLAAF.

“The F-15J is essentially a USAF F-15 circa 1990. While Japan buys strike fighters, the air superiority role has withered. The two missions are different but complementary. Japan needs F-35 but it needs F-15 modernized to USAF standard as well,” said the aviation expert Steven Ganyard in an interview with Defense News.

As I reported previously, the JASDF might face a shortage of fighter jets in the 2020s, unless Tokyo accelerates upgrading its fleet of legacy aircraft and expands the scope of current modernization efforts.

The United States Air Force has also recently increased the number of aircraft stationed on Okinawa. According to media reports, the Pentagon last week dispatched 12 F-16 fighter jets and 14 F-22 aircraft to Kadena Air Base where they will stay until the end of the month.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/us-navy-orders-20-new-anti-submarine-warfare-planes/

US Navy Orders 20 New Anti-Submarine Warfare Planes

The contract covers 16 new aircraft for the U.S. Navy and four aircraft for the Royal Australian Air Force.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
February 01, 2016

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The United States Navy has awarded Boeing with a $2.5 billion contract for the construction of 20 new P-8A Poseidon Maritime Surveillance Aircraft, according to a U.S. Department of Defense press release.

“This contract combines purchase for the Navy ($2,052,571,034; 83 percent); and the Government of Australia ($417,011,961; 17 percent), under a cooperative agreement,” the press release notes.

“We continue to hear feedback from our Navy customer about the incredible capabilities of the P-8A,” said James Dodd, Boeing vice president and program manager of P-8 Programs in a Boeing press release. “The deployed squadrons tell us it’s exceeding expectations – we’re looking forward to providing even more capability to the fleet and to Australia.”

The P-8A, designed and built by Boeing to replace the U.S. Navy’s aging P-3 fleet, is a military modification of Boeing’s Next-Generation 737-800 commercial airplane featuring advanced anti-submarine, anti-surface warfare and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

According to the Boeing website, the P-8A aircraft “has twice the sonobuoy processing capability and can carry 30 percent more sonobuoys than any maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft currently flying.” It can also control a number of reconnaissance drones to extend sensor reach.

The P-8A has a range of up to 7,242 kilometers (4,500 miles) without refueling, reaches speeds of up to 490 knots, and “can fly in the “harshest maritime flight regimes, including extended operations in icing environments,” Boeing boasts.

The aircraft can carry several types of bombs, Raytheon Mark 54 lightweight torpedoes (which are turned into glide bombs and can be launched from up to 9,100 meters), mines, and depth charges, in addition to air-to-surface missiles installed on the underwing hardpoints.

The U.S. Navy’s Poseidons are also slated to to undergo an upgrade in 2016 and be equipped with the Raytheon Advanced Airborne Sensor (AAS) radar system, one of the world’s most advanced aerial radars, according to experts.

Boeing has so far delivered 33 P-8A aircraft to the U.S. Navy, grouped in four patrol squadrons. Overall, the Navy is slated to receive 78 Poseidons. P-8A aircraft delivery of the recent order is expected to begin in late 2017. Australia will receive its first out of a total of eight P-8A aircraft in late 2016.(Australia’s contract includes the option for four additional aircraft.)

As I reported previously (See: “Indian Ocean: India Deploys New Sub-Killer Planes to Counter Chinese Subs”), in January 2009, India became the first international customer for the P-8I aircraft, an export variant of the P-8A Poseidon with the signing of a $2.1 billion contract for the purchase of eight planes. New Delhi has recently expressed interest in purchasing four more P-8I aircraft.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/chinas-rights-struggle-is-no-longer-an-internal-affair/

China's Rights Struggle Is No Longer an 'Internal Affair'

“Suddenly the country’s domestic repression has a strong international dimension.”

By Kerry Brown
February 01, 2016

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In a fine recent study of China’s human rights lawyers, Eva Pils, a scholar of Chinese legal issues, points out that once the behemoth of the Chinese state takes interest in you these days, there can be literally no escape. Those who stray over into the vast terrain where they are viewed as “enemies of the state” are not just subject to violence and torture.

Pils gives a long, sobering list of other things that the predatory state can do: get you fired from your job, get a landlord to terminate your lease so you end up homeless, get internet companies to shut down your blog so you have no voice, and block your child from school admission. These are not theoreticals; unfortunately, there are plenty of credibly documented cases where such things have happened.

In view of these almost limitless powers, the puzzle is not so much why the mighty state is running rampage of late on a handful of rights lawyers and civil society actors in China, but that there are still people with the courage and inner resources to carry on with their dissent. Back in the Maoist period, a dissident might suffer the fate of Zhang Zhixin, who had her windpipes physically cut by prison guards so she could make no noise, and then was executed by firing squad. These days, the tactics are less extreme — but the end result is much the same. Smother someone, eradicate any means they might have for social influence, and in effect bury them alive.

Despite this, a cohort of individuals with unbelievable grit and determination in China are continuing to challenge the state in courts. They show no signs of disappearing. They can take heart from the case cited of Zhang above. Killed in 1975, her story came back to haunt the party, with her rehabilitation only a few years later. She is now regarded as a martyr for the Party cause. Today’s enemies have a nasty habit of ending up as tomorrow’s heroes. The Party knows that better than most, because most of its founding members back in the 1920s ended up this way.

There is a new angle to the current onslaught, however. With what looks like the abduction of figures displeasing to the Party abroad, and the rounding up of foreigners involved with civil society groups in China, suddenly the country’s domestic repression has a strong international dimension. Not so long ago, the worthy attempts by foreign governments and others outside China to express concern about cases of claimed maltreatment of dissidents within the country were met with shrill declarations that these were internal matters, and nosy foreigners should tend to their own affairs. But when China takes its campaign against rights defenders abroad, the game changes.

The detention, televised “confession” and then expulsion of a Swedish national working for an NGO in China in January, along with what looks like the abduction another Swedish citizen originally from Hong Kong from outside China, obviously do become important issues for outsiders, because they involve foreign citizens, and thus touch on important issues such as duty of care and consular obligations. Therefore, for those who have been waiting for a chance to make a clear statement on the dispensation of justice in China — or lack thereof — these recent cases, deeply regrettable though they are, give a new kind of opportunity to forcefully pursue discussion over rights issues.

And when the stonewalling starts (as it almost inevitably will) about these being “internal affairs,” the logical response will be that, obviously, in these cases they aren’t. They involve non-Chinese, people whom foreign governments have a moral and legal obligation to take care of and support. If it does prove true, too, that Chinese state agents have been unilaterally acting abroad, that makes them international actors, and exposes part of their work to international norms and criticisms as never before.

The bad news over the last few months is that we seem to be seeing a wholly new form of the Chinese state acting outside its borders in ways which are opaque, arbitrary, and worryingly predatory. The good news is that never before has the Chinese state line about “non-interference in the affairs of other countries” been so thoroughly eroded. It is deeply desirable that the United States, the European Union (EU), and others now adopt a uniform, principled and consistent line, demand clarification on the cause of these cases, express dismay at their handling, and fulfill their duty to ensure that citizens are protected inside and outside China. In that way, as never before, these internationalize rights cases can serve as exemplars.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-military-reform-idUSKCN0VA2EO

World | Mon Feb 1, 2016 7:36am EST
Related: World, China

China's Xi sets up five new 'battle zones' in military reform push

BEIJING

China on Monday inaugurated the military's five new "battle zones", the Defense Ministry said, the latest step in President Xi Jinping's efforts to reform the country's armed forces.

Xi's push to reform the military coincides with China becoming more assertive in its territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, and as its navy invests in submarines and aircraft carriers and its air force develops stealth fighters.

The reforms include establishing a joint operational command structure by 2020 and rejigging existing military regions, as well as cutting troop numbers by 300,000, a surprise announcement he made in September.

Late last year, Xi, the ruling Communist Party chief and also chairman of the Central Military Commission which runs the military, inaugurated a general command unit for the People's Liberation Army (PLA), a missile force and a strategic support force.

Weeks later, he split the PLA's four military headquarters into 15 new units - covering everything from logistics to equipment development, political work and fighting corruption.

Monday's move, which had been flagged in advance by state media, reclassified seven military regions into five - the East, West, South, North and Middle battle zones.

They will constitute what the Defense Ministry said in an online statement was each zone's "highest-level joint combat command structure".

Xi said the new zones shoulder the responsibility of responding to their respective "security threats, upholding peace and constraining conflict".

"All battle zones must unwaveringly listen to the Party's direction, insist upon the Party's absolute leadership," Xi said. State media showed Xi handing flags to the zone's new commanders.

Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said in a separate statement posted online that China would maintain its "defensive national defense policy" and that the country's development and foreign policy would be unchanged.

China has been moving rapidly to upgrade its military hardware, but integration of complex systems across a regionalized command structure has been a major challenge.

The troop cuts and broader reforms have proven controversial, though, and the military's newspaper has published a series of commentaries warning of opposition to the reforms and concern about job losses.

Xi has also made rooting out deeply entrenched corruption in the military a top priority.


(Reporting by Michael Martina; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-un-idUSKCN0VA2N4

World | Mon Feb 1, 2016 9:13am EST
Related: World, United Nations, Israel

U.N. chief tells Israel, Palestinians: 'writing is on the wall'

UNITED NATIONS

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is concerned a stalemate in the peace process between Israel and Palestinians is reaching the point of no return for a two-state solution.

"The time has come for Israelis, Palestinians and the international community to read the writing on the wall: The status quo is untenable," Ban wrote in an opinion piece published in the New York Times late on Sunday. "Keeping another people under indefinite occupation undermines the security and the future of both Israelis and Palestinians."

The Palestinians want an independent state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem - areas Israel captured in a 1967 war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed Ban last week, saying he gave a "tailwind to terrorism" after the secretary-general put some of the blame on Israel for four months of stabbings and car rammings by Palestinians.

Ban, who will step down at the end of 2016 after 10 years as U.N. chief, had told the U.N. Security Council that it is "human nature to react to occupation."

"I will always stand up to those who challenge Israel’s right to exist," Ban said in the Times, "just as I will always defend the right of Palestinians to have a state of their own. That is why I am so concerned that we are reaching a point of no return for the two-state solution."

The United States and the European Union - Israel's closest allies - also have had unusually stern criticism of Israel in recent weeks, reflecting their frustrations with Netanyahu's right-wing government.

"When heartfelt concerns about shortsighted or morally damaging policies emanate from so many sources, including Israel's closest friends, it cannot be sustainable to keep lashing out at every well-intentioned critic," Ban wrote.

U.S.-led efforts to broker a "two-state solution" collapsed in 2014. France said on Friday it will recognize a Palestinian state if a final push that Paris plans to lead for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians fails.

"The stalemate carries grave risks for both sides: a continuation of the deadly wave of terrorism and killings; the collapse of the Palestinian Authority; greater isolation of and international pressure on Israel," Ban wrote.

He said the Palestinians must bring Gaza and the West Bank under a single democratic-governing authority and take action to stop attacks on Israel, including an immediate end to the building of Gaza tunnels into Israel.


(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Bill Trott)

 

[Housecarl]

I hope he isn't holding his breath.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran-un-idUSKCN0VA27K

World | Mon Feb 1, 2016 6:20am EST
Related: World, United Nations, Saudi Arabia

U.N.'s Ban says Saudi Arabia and Iran should compromise

DUBAI

Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran should reconcile and help resolve tensions in the Middle East, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday.

"I hope that both Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite mistrust and difficulties, will bring realism, responsibility and compromise to their dealings, and to the region," Ban said in a speech in Oman's capital Muscat according to transcript emailed by the U.N. press office.


(Writing by Sylvia Westall; Editing by Dominic Evans)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...un-to-eu-as-cameron-aims-for-early-referendum

U.K. ‘Holding a Gun’ to EU as Cameron Aims for Early Referendum

by Ian Wishart
t IanWishart
Thomas Penny
t ThomasWPenny

January 31, 2016 — 3:01 PM PST
Updated on February 1, 2016 — 4:43 AM PST

- British government targets February deal allowing June vote

- Tusk offers immigrant welfare concession after Sunday talks

The U.K.’s 43-year membership in the European Union comes into sharper focus this month as Prime Minister David Cameron discovers whether the rest of the bloc will offer him sufficient concessions to convince the British people it’s worth staying.

QuickTake
Will Britain Leave the EU?

Britain’s relationship with the EU, troubled by decades of anxiety over waning national power, the euro area’s threat to London’s financial clout, subsidies to French farmers and, more recently, mass migration, may come down to the next few weeks of deal-making. Any accord must offer enough special treatment to allow Cameron to claim victory before an in-out referendum as early as June, without prompting a revolt from other members of the 28-nation club.

“If Britain votes to leave it will be a seismic event,” said John Springford, senior research fellow at London’s Centre for European Reform. “Cameron’s strategy of having a renegotiation and then a referendum has been felt by the other leaders as essentially holding a gun to their heads; there’s been resistance to allowing Britain to set the terms of the future direction of the EU.”

Cameron met EU President Donald Tusk -- the man who represents the bloc’s national leaders -- in London on Sunday, and they agreed to postpone the circulation of the former Polish premier’s template for a compromise until Tuesday -- 24 hours later than planned. The Tusk meeting was preceded by a hastily organized trip to Brussels by the prime minister on Friday for discussions with Jean-Claude Juncker, the man whose candidacy for the European Commission presidency Cameron tried to block in 2014 and whose support he now needs to help forge a deal with fellow EU leaders at a summit in Brussels Feb. 18-19.

Exceptional Circumstances

The commission, the EU’s executive body, has been working on giving the U.K. a so-called emergency brake granting it some power to limit welfare benefits to migrants -- Cameron’s most contentious demand -- if the government can prove exceptional circumstances. Since any compromise must win the approval of every EU government, Cameron’s room for maneuver is small.

The prime minister used the meeting with Tusk, who traveled to London with his full negotiating team, to press for the brake to be put in place immediately after a referendum and established as a “stop-gap’’ until a permanent solution can be found. Tusk’s draft agreement for the February summit will now say that current circumstances in the U.K. meet the threshold for bringing in the brake, Cameron’s office said after the meeting.

The commission said Monday that “there is some homework to be done” before Tusk’s proposal can be sent out to EU governments, with discussions involving U.K. officials continuing in Brussels.

“We’re not there yet,” spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters. “Nothing is obviously agreed until everything is agreed.”

While the prime minister’s demands for EU reform won’t significantly change the bloc or the U.K.’s relationship to it, they might give him enough ammunition to make the case to the British electorate for the country to remain wedded to the continent.

Free Market

That matters to all Europe for reasons of trade and economics, but also because Britain has been a flag-bearer for the free market and EU enlargement toward the East, even as it refused to go along with more integrationist policies like the single currency and the removal of border checks.

The pound fell to a 5 1/2-year low against the dollar Jan. 21 as investors started to focus on the risks of a potential U.K. exit from the EU. Last week, Barclays Plc warned that markets appeared to underestimate the impact of the referendum as it designated the EU summit a “key risk event.” Berenberg Bank raised its assessment of the chance of a vote to exit to 35 percent.

Faced with a tide of anti-EU sentiment in his Conservative Party and a substantial part of the electorate that favors Britain leaving the EU, a so-called Brexit, Cameron has sought to win agreement from his fellow EU leaders in three other broad areas alongside welfare: safeguarding the rights of non-euro countries like his; abolishing the U.K.’s obligation to “ever closer union”; and stripping back regulations that hamper competition.

But it’s the demand to limit access to welfare payments for non-British EU citizens in the U.K. that has proved most contentious with governments in countries such as Poland and Hungary. They have sent thousands of people to set up home in the U.K. and say the move would make their countrymen and women second-class citizens in a club where everyone is supposed to be equal.

Merkel Talks

There have been signs that negotiations aren’t going to plan. Cameron canceled a planned visit to his counterparts in Denmark and Sweden on Friday to meet with Juncker instead. He said afterward that the proposals were “not enough.” On Sunday, the premier’s office said “much progress” had been made in the 48 hours after meeting with Juncker and British officials are due to travel to Brussels on Monday morning to continue negotiations.

The prime minister will have the opportunity for face-to-face talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the EU’s chief power broker, twice over the next two weeks in the run-up to the summit: on Thursday, when she will co-host a conference on Syria in London; then on Feb. 12 when he is scheduled to make a speech on Europe in Hamburg.

Opinion polls have given conflicting indications of voting intentions. The latest telephone surveys by ComRes and Ipsos MORI showed leads of 18 and 19 percentage points for staying in. Three online surveys have indicated a much closer race, with a YouGov Plc poll published Monday showing 42 percent of respondents in favor of leaving compared with 38 percent for staying in the bloc. YouGov questioned 2,438 adults Jan. 29 for its poll, for which no margin of error was specified.

“As these negotiations are highly technical, it is hard to see how any result -- even if presented as a victory for David Cameron -- can be so compelling to the British people that they would lose their EU-skepticism,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for ING-DiBA in Frankfurt. “The rest of the European Union, therefore, is well advised to think of the unthinkable and prepare for a Brexit.”


Read this next

- Europe's Biggest Exchange Warns `Brexit' May Spur London Exodus

- Poland Sides With U.K. Over Germany as Brexit Debate Divides EU

- Cameron Says Current EU Ideas to Keep U.K. in Bloc ‘Not Enough’

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-commission-idUSL8N15G3CK

Markets | Mon Feb 1, 2016 10:11am EST
Related: Regulatory News, Bonds, Markets

UPDATE 1-EU Commission notes progress in UK talks, deal must suit all EU

(Adds background, more Commission comment)

Feb 1 Britain and EU institutions have made progress on reforms that would help keep London in the 28-nation bloc, but there was no agreement yet and all member states must accept any deal, the EU Commission said on Monday.

Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to reform Britain's ties to the European Union and hold a public vote on EU membership before the end of 2017.

He hopes to reach a reform deal at a summit next month, with a view to holding the referendum as early as possible.

Among the most controversial of his demands is stronger powers to curb immigration, including barring EU immigrants from in-work benefits for at least their first four years in Britain - what some EU officials have come to call a "welfare brake".

Talks with the chairman of EU leaders, Donald Tusk, did not bring a breakthrough on Sunday night and negotiations continue on Monday with a view to drafting a proposal that could be sent to all EU governments on Tuesday.

European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told a regular news briefing that while there was progress at political and technical level, nothing was agreed until everything was agreed.

"We are not there yet, discussions continue, today at sherpa level involving the Council, the Commision and UK sherpas. The timing is in the hands of President Tusk and Prime Minister Cameron," Schinas said.

"It is not enough for the Commission and Council lawyers to agree," he said. "This is a process that is run at 28 (EU countries) and the Commission works for all 28 member states of the union."

Asked if the Commission has prepared a proposal that would give Britain the right to apply the welfare brake now, but did not share the proposal yet with other EU governments, Schinas said: "Yes, right". He later made clear this was not an affirmative answer but just an acknowledgement of the question.

Schinas stressed he could give no details of the talks.

"I will not comment on specific issues linked to the negotiation, not least because we work for 28 member states," he said.

"It would be very unfair for the other 27 member states, that have not seen or discussed anything yet on the many issues that are on the table, for me to offer an opinion in the Commission press room," Schinas said.

(Reporting by Gabriela Baczynska; Writing by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Philip Blenkinsop and Tom Heneghan)

 

[Housecarl]

01.05 BREAKING NEWS: NORTH KOREA Claims Successful Hydrogen Bomb Test
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...A-Claims-Successful-Hydrogen-Bomb-Test/page10


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...aking-unlimited-hydrogen-bombs/9061454336686/

North Korea says it's capable of making unlimited hydrogen bombs

Pyongyang said Monday its thermonuclear weapon is capable of striking the United States.

By Elizabeth Shim | Feb. 1, 2016 at 9:35 AM

SEOUL, Feb. 1 (UPI) -- North Korea said it wants to resolve its nuclear issue through negotiations with the United States, while warning that it is capable of attacking the U.S. mainland with its tested hydrogen bomb.

North Korean state media outlet DPRK Today published an article Monday that disparaged the United States for its "psychological avoidance" and its denial of Pyongyang's nuclear prowess, Newsis reported.

"Experts the world over have said the development of a hydrogen bomb following the production of nuclear bombs is commonplace and have predicted North Korea would develop thermonuclear weapons technology. But the United States in its state of 'psychological avoidance' refuses to admit to [the reality]," North Korea said.

Pyongyang said North Korea "had no need to test a hydrogen bomb" because the country already has the capacity to make nuclear weapons and update its current arsenal of WMDs, or weapons of mass destruction.

"We have told the United States if they cease their aggressive invasion exercises aimed at [North Korea], we would hold off on a nuclear test," North Korea said.

That didn't happen, according to Pyongyang, adding it has the capability of making an unlimited number of hydrogen bombs that can target the U.S. mainland, or something "more powerful." If North Korea's territory was as expansive as the United States, it could have tested a bomb that is a "hundred-fold" more powerful, state media said.

On Jan. 28, CNN reported the United States has reason to believe North Korea might have attempted to test components of a hydrogen bomb on Jan. 6, although multiple sources have suggested otherwise.

Consensus is growing in Washington that a stronger response is necessary, and last week U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., sponsored a North Korea sanctions bill that passed unanimously at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The legislation includes penalties for North Korea cyber crime and sanctions for trade in precious metals that could go toward North Korea weapons manufacturing.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion...world-commentary/go-north-korea/#.Vq-EJ6TMvIV

Commentary / World

Here we go again with North Korea

by Ralph Cossa
Feb 1, 2016

HONOLULU – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The North Koreans do something provocative (nuclear test, missile launch, etc.); the world rises as one to soundly and firmly condemn this grave violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, a demonstration of solidarity that lasts perhaps, if we’re lucky, 24 hours; then the squabbling begins as to how severe the consequences will be. This results in a watered down UNSC resolution with some new (unlikely to be completely enforced) sanctions, an expression of outrage by Pyongyang and then another act of provocation.

To quote my childhood hero, the late New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra, it’s deja vu all over again. The only difference this time is that the North Koreans started with the nuclear test rather than a missile launch. We already are seeing preparations for the missile test (thinly disguised as a satellite launch) which is sure to follow; I would also not be surprised to see another (their fifth) nuclear test as part of this current string of events.

Meanwhile the debate goes on at the UNSC over just how strong the sanctions will be, with Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo promising “painful” sanctions to demonstrate it is no longer “business as usual” and Beijing, not always but this time joined by Moscow, calling on “all sides” to refrain from destabilizing actions, as if “all sides” were at fault for the latest crisis.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang, convinced that such actions ultimately do more to divide than to unite the international community, sits back and dreams up new ways of threatening all out war.

Isn’t it time to disabuse North Korea of this notion? I don’t expect the UNSC to endorse the tough line proposed by the United States and its allies. Even though the Chinese should feel disrespected, if not humiliated, by this latest act of defiance from its client state, it still refuses to use even the limited leverage it has to send North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and company a firm, credible message. Instead, Beijing warns of severe consequences, not if Pyongyang continues to violate international norms, but against Seoul if it should try to defend itself by introducing the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in the South. And the beat goes on!

So why not try this? Let’s take the strong measures proposed by Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, set them aside temporarily and immediately announce the lowest common denominator sanctions that we can all quickly agree upon. Then announce that, if another provocation occurs, the stronger sanctions — which should be spelled out in no uncertain terms — will automatically be implemented and enforced.

This is called deterrence. It is too late to stop the nuclear test that just took place and Beijing has already made it clear that this latest slap in China’s face, while it stings, is not enough to pull the plug on their erstwhile ally. But we need to break the cycle. The best way to do this is to spell out in advance the consequences of the next provocation, so that the next action brings us together rather than provides yet another opportunity for Pyongyang to divide and conquer.

But what will it take to get Beijing to go along? First, it has to come to grips with the fact that its current policy toward North Korea — not unlike the U.S. and South Korean policies — is not working. Recall in November, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent the number five ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party Standing Committee, Liu Yunshan, to Pyongyang to stand and wave and hold hands with Kim Jong Un as the Korean Workers Party celebrated its 70th anniversary with a display of the troops and weaponry it threatened to use against the U.S. and South Korea. The quid pro quo for Liu’s visit — not specified but widely assumed — was good behavior on Pyongyang’s part. It may have succeeded; the North Korean ballistic missile launch widely anticipated in October did not occur. But in truth, all Beijing bought with this visit — the highest level official to come to honor the boy general — was about two months of good (or at least not bad) behavior.

While Liu’s visit was somewhat overshadowed by the more prominent image of South Korea President Park Geun-hye’s presence at Xi’s side during China’s even grander parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the ending of World War II a month earlier — which apparently gained South Korea zero in terms of gratitude from Beijing — Liu’s visit was still seen as a significant warming of the seemingly troubled relationship between the two communist neighbors. That euphoric feeling, to the degree it existed, ended not with a whimper but with a bang. It seems amazing that the man widely proclaimed as “the strongest Chinese leader since Mao” would stand idly by as a third-generation (but clearly not third-rate) dictator thumbs his nose at him from Pyongyang.

While no one can claim with any degree of certainty what Pyongyang will do next, it’s a safe assumption that it will continue to test the rest of the international community’s resolve unless and until there are actual severe consequences. Laying out those consequences in advance — and being prepared to credibly implement them — seems the only way to break the cycle. If not, it will be deja vu over and over and over again.

Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu.