WAR 01-16-2016-to-01-22-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...a-new-phase-with-pledge-from-seven-countries/

Checkpoint

The fight against the Islamic State just entered a new phase - and it could grow soon

Commentsƒö 10
By Dan Lamothe January 20 at 2:11 PM

PARIS ¡V The U.S.-led military coalition¡¦s fight against the Islamic State militant group entered a new phase on Wednesday, with defense ministers from the seven countries most heavily involved in the operation pledging to continue fighting and look for ways to more aggressively target the group.

The United States, France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Australia and the Netherlands made the promise here after a joint meeting hosted by U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and his French counterpart, Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. The group¡¦s members said in a joint statement that they have ¡§expressed our broad support for the campaign plan objectives, and the need to continue gathering momentum in our campaign.¡¨

Navy Vice Adm. Mark I. Fox, the deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, briefed the defense ministers on what has been identified as needs, including more Special Operations troops, more training to help local forces counter improvised explosive devices and more training on how to build temporary bridges for military operations, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting candidly.

¡§There was agreement that this is a good moment to do more,¡¨ the senior defense official said.

Separately, Carter announced during a news conference Wednesday alongside Le Drian at the French version of the Pentagon that he has invited leaders from all 26 nations involved in the military side of the campaign against the Islamic State, along with Iraq, to meet in three weeks in Brussels, the home of NATO. The first-time meeting will be focused on how the war may be expanded to include more resources. That leaves out 37 other countries that are a part of the 63-member coalition in some way, but not contributing militarily.

[Canada left out as major players in Islamic State fight meet in Paris]

¡§Every nation must come prepared to discuss further contributions,¡¨ Carter said of the countries invited to attend the meeting in Brussels.

The senior defense official described the planned meeting in Brussels as a ¡§forcing function¡¨ that will move defense ministers toward assessing how their countries will participate in the fight against the Islamic State in the future. In addition to the countries whose defense ministers met in Paris, ministers from countries like the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, who have participated in the air war against the militants in the past, will be invited.

Le Drian said that the United States holds the leadership role in the fight against the Islamic State, but that the French are on the front lines of the battle with about 3,500 service members involved. Over the last few weeks, the Islamic State has suffered a series of defeats, providing reason to step up operations against the group with a consistent military strategy, he said.

Le Drian added that the cities of Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq ¡X de facto capitals of the Islamic State ¡X must be won back, but that the military coalition also must sever the militant group¡¦s control of surrounding areas. The ideology of the group also must be combated, he added, noting the large numbers of people who have traveled to Iraq and Syria from across the world to join the ISIS.

Carter said there is no other defense minister who he has spent as much time discussing the Islamic State fight with than Le Drian, and that they discussed accelerating the campaign against the militants even before the terrorist attacks in and around Paris in November that killed 130 people.

The meeting came after a the arrival of an elite U.S. ¡§expeditionary targeting force¡¨ in Iraq that is expected to include up to 200 Special Operations troops. It is not yet clear whether it has begun carrying out operations, but it is expected to conduct raids, collect intelligence and carry out other operations against Islamic State leaders.

Carter said Tuesday while flying to Paris that he thought it was likely the number of U.S. troops deployed to Iraq as military advisers will expand in coming months, as additional Iraqi military units and police must be trained to hold areas leading from Ramadi to Mosul. While the United States could deploy some, other countries will be involved, he said.

¡§I can¡¦t give you a number, but I would [say it] will increase greatly as the momentum of the effort increases,¡¨ Carter said. ¡§And that will be [focused on increasing the] throughput not only of Iraqi security forces, but also Iraqi police forces. And obviously, there are many countries that contribute to both of those training streams. The United States does, but most of the countries represented in the room when I meet with them will do that also.¡¨

As of Jan. 10, the U.S.-led military coalition has carried out 6,341 airstrikes in Iraq and 3,219 in Syria, according to the Pentagon. Of those, the United States has carried out the majority, with 4,361 Iraq and 3,029 in Syria.

The rest of the military coalition has carried out 1,980 strikes in Iraq and 190 in Syria. The countries doing so in Iraq include the United States, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, the Netherlands and Britain. In Syria, the nations that have carried out airstrikes include the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Britain.

This story was originally published at 11:28 a.m. on the East Coast and subsequently updated.

Dan Lamothe covers national security for The Washington Post and anchors its military blog, Checkpoint.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...eting-of-those-opposed-to-assad-a6821996.html

News›World›Middle East

Syria peace talks: Turkey will not allow Kurdish groups to join meeting of those opposed to Assad regime

Turkish PM says the participation of YPG represents a 'direct threat' to his country

David Wastell Foreign Editor | 24 hours ago | 3 comments

Turkey will not allow Kurdish groups from northern Syria to take part in peace talks alongside other groups opposed to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the country’s Prime Minister has warned.

Ahmet Davutoglu said the group known as People’s Defence Units or YPG, seen by the US as one of the most effective fighting forces against Isis, was too closely linked to the outlawed PKK terrorist group for it to join talks on the opposition side. It represented a “direct threat to Turkey”, he told reporters during a two-day visit to London which concluded on Tuesday.

The hard line from the Turkish government is a further obstacle to the Syrian peace talks which are scheduled to begin in Geneva on Monday, with all the main parties in the region taking part.

Russia, a key ally of President Assad, is demanding that the Kurdish group take part in the talks, which will be held under the umbrella of the United Nations. Mr Davutoglu said the YPG would only be allowed to take part “on the regime side”.

Advances on the ground by Syrian government forces have meanwhile emboldened Damascus. “The regime is trying to achieve as much as possible on the ground before the peace talks, which will be hollow,” Zakaria Ahmad, a spokesman for a moderate rebel faction operating near the Turkish border, told the Associated Press.

As a result, diplomats are becoming doubtful that the talks will begin next week. Their convenors say they will not issue invitations to opposition groups until all the main countries involved – including Saudi Arabia and Russia as well as Turkey – have agreed on who should take part.

The talks are meant to launch a political process to end the civil war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and forced millions of refugees to flee abroad. Under the plan, a new constitution would be drawn up and elections held in 18 months time.

There are major unresolved differences including over the future of Mr Assad. Mr Davutoglu said he should go “as early as possible, because Syrians do not want to see him in that post”. As long as Mr Assad remained, he added, the millions who have fled will not return. After the formation of a transitional government, he said, there should be a timetable for a transformation where “any Syrian can run the country based on the support of the Syrian people”.

Libya announces unity government

Representatives of Libya’s rival factions negotiating through a UN-brokered process announced that they have formed a unity government aimed at stemming the chaos that has engulfed the country.

The Unity Presidential Council has agreed on a 32-member cabinet, drawn of representatives from across the country.

Libya slid into chaos following the 2011 killing of Muammar Gaddafi. Since 2014, its divisions only increased, splitting it into two governments and parliaments: the globally recognised version in the east and an Islamist-backed one in Tripoli. The line-up of the new cabinet was approved by seven out of nine members of the presidential council, after two walked out. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini called the cabinet announcement an “essential step” and said Libya was now at a “critical juncture”.

AP

Read more

Turkey takes Russia and US to task over backing of Kurds in Syria
Syrian Kurds 'razing villages seized from Isis' according to Amnesty
Disillusioned young Kurds take up arms against Isis in Iraq
Journalist who reports on Turkey Kurds arrested for second time
Assad is no longer the only obstacle to peace in Syria

 

[Housecarl]

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Russia shows why it’s Top Gun over Syria

January 20, 2016, 12:48pm

BOUNCING back from the loss of one of their wingmen in November, Russian combat pilots in Syria are going to great lengths to demonstrate their prowess — with mobile cameras.

The high definition colour footage — taken via commercially available Go-Pro portable cameras mounted on the aircraft — is in stark contrast to the carefully vetted and often black-and-white and blurry imagery of coalition air strikes that makes its way past censors in the west.

It’s a practice that has won the approval of Russia’s Ministry of Defence: Clips of the footage are being circulated via the ministry’s official Twitter account.

But despite the dramatic look and feel, the frames do reveal much about Russian tactics.

For example: This footage shows a bomber dropping unguided bombs from a great height.

The chances of accurately hitting a target in that manner are very low.

The Su-24 ‘Fencer’ bomber is of the same type as was shot down by Turkish F-16 ‘Falcon’ fighter jets in November.

Russian news service TASS today declared Russian bombers have destroyed 579 ‘terrorist’ targets in Syria’s northwest during the past four days.

It caps off three months of intensive air strikes since the small force of combat aircraft was deployed in late September to help secure the position of embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Most targets have been among Syrian rebels — not Islamic State fighters.

As a result, Syrian troops have begun to recapture territory in the country’s north and centre.

“Over the past four days the planes of Russia’s air group in the Syrian Arab Republic made 157 sorties against 579 facilities of the terrorist infrastructure in the provinces of Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Homs, Hama, Raqqah and Latakia,” Tass quoted Russia’s Defense Ministry’s spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov as saying.

He went on to say about 60 ‘Islamic State’ fighters were killed in air strikes in a hotly contested province.

“Russian Su-34 bombers delivered air strikes at terrorists’ strongholds in the vicinity of the settlement of Bgelia in the Dei ez-Zor province, where Islamic State militants massacred about 300 civilians to intimidate the local population,” he said.

International tensions inflamed by the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 has seen Coalition aircraft - including those of Australia - largely withdrawn from attacking Islamic State targets in Syria.

The positioning of a Russian anti-aircraft cruiser off Syria’s border with Turkey, the installation of an advanced long-range anti-aircraft system at its airfield at Latakia and Russian fighters flying close escort have dramatically ramped up the chances of another ‘misunderstanding’.


25 years of bombing Iraq
Video

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-blast-kabul-idUSKCN0UY1HU

World | Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:34pm EST
Related: World, Afghanistan

Suicide bomb in Afghan capital targets journalists, kills seven people

KABUL | By Mirwais Harooni and Andrew MacAskill


A Taliban suicide car bomber targeted a minibus carrying journalists working for a private Afghan television channel on Wednesday, killing seven employees during evening rush hour close to the national parliament in Kabul, officials said.It was the latest in a series of suicide attacks in the Afghan capital that coincide with renewed efforts to revive a peace process with Taliban insurgents that broke down in July.The bomber targeted a vehicle owned by a company that works with Tolo News, Afghanistan's first 24-hour news channel, Kabul Police Chief Abdul Rahman Rahimi told reporters. "Such brutal and cowardly attacks can never stop us serving our country, people and protecting democracy," said Karim Amini, a reporter for the channel.Television footage showed the black burned-out shell of the vehicle where fire had torn through the roof and windows.

The Taliban openly threatened to target the television channel last year after it reported allegations of summary executions, rape, kidnappings and other abuses by Taliban fighters during the battle for Kunduz.The Islamist insurgents briefly captured the northern city in October, their biggest success in the 15-year insurgency, before being ousted by government forces.The Taliban, who are fighting to topple the Western-backed government in Kabul and reimpose strict Islamic law, said they carried out the attack and issued another grim warning."If they do not stop their evil activities this will not be the last attack on them," Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said in an emailed statement. Tolo News has been one of the most active media operations in the country for years, employing dozens of journalists, many in volatile provinces.

The latest attack adds a dangerous new complication for local journalists working in a country already ranked as low as 122 out of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index, a gauge of media freedom compiled by the group Reporters Without Borders.

At least 25 people were wounded in the bombing, including women and children, police officials said.The attack took place near the Russian Embassy in west Kabul. The explosion sent smoke billowing into the sky and was powerful enough to be heard miles away.

Kabul has seen at least six bomb attacks since the new year. On Sunday, a rocket landed near the Italian embassy in Kabul, wounding two security guards.Envoys from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States met in Kabul this week to explore ways to find a negotiated end to 15 years of war, and urged the Taliban to join peace talks.Separately on Wednesday, the U.S. government issued a warning that it had received reports militants were planning to attack a hotel or guesthouse frequented by foreigners in Kabul.

There was no further information regarding the timing, location or method of attack, the statement said.


(Editing by Ruth Pitchford and Katharine Houreld)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.voanews.com/content/kerry-uses-davos-meetings-to-focus-on-syria-peace-talks/3155721.html

Syria, Iran, IS Discussed on Sidelines of Davos Forum

Pamela Dockins
Last updated on: January 21, 2016 1:31 PM

DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — Efforts to launch a political transition in Syria, the plight of Americans missing in Iraq and the fight against Islamic State militants are among the issues that Secretary of State Kerry discussed Thursday in a series of meetings and interviews in Switzerland.

His talks took place on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, an annual gathering that brings together high-level government officials and corporate executives.

“This has a one stop shopping capacity that you only get otherwise I think at the U.N.,” said Kerry, in reference to the opportunities to meet with his counterparts and other officials during the forum.

Syria talks

U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura was among the officials that Kerry met with on Thursday.

Later, Kerry said there would be no "fundamental delay" in the U.N.-mediated talks on a political transition in Syria.

The U.N. set a January 25 start date for the start of proximity talks between the Syrian government and opposition. However, there has been debate over the make-up of the Syrian opposition that would be represented at the talks.

Kerry said there may be a delay of a "day or two" for invitations to the talks. Later, he noted that de Mistura had the ability to “issue whatever kinds of invitations he desires.”

Earlier, de Mistura said even if there are disputes over who will attend the U.N.-mediated talks, the peace process must go forward. "We need to maintain pressure" on all sides, he told CNN television, "We need to maintain momentum."

Americans missing in Iraq

Kerry also met with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

Asked about three Americans who disappeared in Iraq last week, Abadi said he doubts they were abducted by an Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia, as some reports have indicated.

"We don't know if they have been kidnapped," Abadi said. "They just went missing."

Kerry later said he raised the issue during his talks with the prime minister, who had no information on the Americans’ status.

US – Iran relations

The secretary’s high-level meetings in Davos have come less than a week after world powers implemented the Iran nuclear agreement, and the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran for ballistic missile tests.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded to the new penalties, saying it indicated the U.S. was “addicted” to using sanctions as a tool for diplomacy.

"We have made it very clear that we will use sanctions when we think they are appropriate," said Kerry.

The U.S. sanctions were imposed "judiciously and effectively," Kerry said, and the United States is looking now to "put to the test" Iran's willingness to reduce regional tensions.

Later, Kerry said he had met briefly with Zarif in Davos.

The U.S. Treasury Department estimates the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions has resulted in Iran having access to about $55 billion in previously frozen assets.

In an interview with CNBC, Kerry was asked if he believed some of that money could wind up in the hands of terrorists.

He said he thought some of the funds could end up in the hands of the controversial Iranian Revolutionary Guard, but added, there were no early indications of funds “going to that kind of endeavor.”

Kerry also met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who strongly opposed the major world powers' nuclear agreement with Iran.

Fighting Islamic State

The talks in Davos are taking place ahead of Kerry’s February 2 meeting in Rome, with about two dozen foreign ministers from countries part of the anti-Islamic State coalition in Iraq and Syria.

“We are going to prevent them [Islamic State] from being the threat in Syria and Iraq that they are today by the end of the year, said Kerry, in a roundtable with reporters.

Kerry will address the World Economic Forum on Friday before heading to Saudi Arabia, the next leg of a five-nation tour that also includes stops in Asia.

In a Wednesday speech, Vice President Joe Biden urged executives to support initiatives that would strengthen the middle class saying, "Embrace the obligation to your workers as well as to your shareholders."

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......At the same time, if the Japanese and others in the region follow through with the mass deployment of anti-shipping cruise and ballistic missiles (both very cheap options) along with more up to date SSKs and long range strike aircraft, that "Chinese Lake" is going to be pretty confining...But then the PLAN's SSBNs will have a lot of PLAN controlled water to hide in as well.....ETA: Interesting that this is a Washington Post article.....Housecarl
__

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WorldViews

By 2030, South China Sea will be 'virtually a Chinese lake,' study warns

By Simon Denyer
January 20, 2016 „³
Comments 183

China will have so many aircraft carriers by 2030 that the South China Sea will be ¡§virtually a Chinese lake,¡¨ a new U.S. study warns, arguing that the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region was shifting away from the United States.

Meanwhile, President Obama¡¦s strategic ¡§rebalance¡¨ to Asia has neither been clearly enough explained nor sufficiently resourced to cope with rising threats from China and North Korea, the report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found.

It said the United States should sustain and expand its military presence in the Asia Pacific, as well as accelerate efforts to strengthen the capabilities of its allies and partners.

The CSIS study was carried out after Congress required the Pentagon to commission an independent assessment of U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.

It concluded that Obama¡¦s rebalance needed more attention and resources, especially as China has accelerated the pace of ¡§coercive activities¡¨ and island-building in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and North Korea has continued to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

¡§Chinese and North Korean actions are routinely challenging the credibility of U.S. security commitments, and at the current rate of U.S. capability, the balance of military power in the region is shifting against the United States,¡¨ it said.

China rails at ¡¥hegemony and hypocrisy¡¦ as U.S. vows to continue sea patrols

It argued that China would have multiple aircraft carriers in the region by 2030, allowing it to overawe other nations without necessarily having to behave in an overtly menacing fashion.

China formally announced at the end of last year that it was building a second aircraft carrier, and it is expected to build more in the years ahead.

China confirms work on second aircraft carrier amid naval expansion

¡§For rival claimants in the South China Sea, this is a game changer,¡¨ the report said. ¡§There will almost always be a Chinese CSG (carrier strike group) floating in contested waters, or within a half-day¡¦s steaming time.¡¨

Whether China has seized territory or negotiated a resource-sharing scheme with other claimants, ¡§the South China Sea will be virtually a Chinese lake, as the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico is for the United States today,¡¨ CSIS said.

Global powers condemn North Korea¡¦s nuclear weapons test

That will also make U.S. naval operations in the South China Sea a risky proposition, other than through U.S. submarines.

The rebalance was supposed to be one of Obama¡¦s top foreign policy priorities, but other international crises, including conflict in the Middle East and the rise of the Islamic State militant group, as well as tension with Russia, have sucked up much of the administration¡¦s attention.

This report may fuel criticism that Obama has neglected the threats posed by China¡¦s rise and North Korea¡¦s belligerence.

CSIS identified three main U.S. goals in the region ¡X protecting U.S. citizens and allies, promoting trade and economic opportunity, and promoting universal democratic norms ¡X but expressed concern that the rebalance ¡§may be insufficient to secure those interests.¡¨

It argued that capping military resources at budget levels set by the Budget Control Act would ¡§severely constrain implementation of the rebalance¡¨ and called for Congress ¡§to forge a long-term bipartisan agreement to fund defense at the higher levels for which there is a broad consensus.¡¨

It also complained that there was confusion throughout Washington and across the Asia-Pacific region about the rebalance, as well as concern about its implementation, partly because there has been no central statement explaining the strategy.

¡§Addressing this confusion will require that the executive branch develop and then articulate a clear and coherent strategy, and discuss that strategy with Congress as well as with U.S. allies and partners across the world,¡¨ the report recommended.

But the United States should also build up the ability of its allies and partners in the region to respond to rising threats.


¡§Securities challenges are increasingly outpacing the capabilities of frontline regional states,¡¨ it said.

-

Related Articles

Obama turns on personal appeal while trying to bolster his pivot to Asia

Obama¡¦s Asia rebalance turns into headache as China, Japan relations spiral down



Simon Denyer is The Post¡¦s bureau chief in China. He served previously as bureau chief in India and as a Reuters bureau chief in Washington, India and Pakistan.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2016/01/us-convene-27-nation-meeting-isis/125241/?oref=d-topstory

US to Convene 27-Nation Meeting on ISIS

January 20, 2016 By Kevin Baron

It's a true working ministerial meeting as the U.S. defense secretary and other countries' top defense officials get caught up and look ahead.

PARIS — Following a first-ever meeting of the chief contributors to the counter-ISIS fight, Defense Secretary Ash Carter and his French counterpart in Paris endorsed the stepped-up military campaign against the Islamic State and called for more countries and capabilities to join the fight.

Carter said that to continue the momentum and determine what capabilities are needed, he has invited a larger group of defense ministers from 26 countries—including Iraq—to a first-ever meeting in Brussels in three weeks.

Among the objectives of that meeting: get local Arab forces into the fight.

“We are very much looking to the countries of the [Persian] Gulf,” Carter said of the coalition’s need to consolidate security in the region with additional military and non-military help, including economic and reconstruction aid.

“We agreed that we all must do more,” he said. The two spoke at a press conference Wednesday afternoon at France’s version of the Pentagon, the Hexagone-Balard.

“Daesh also must be uprooted in the minds of men,” said French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, calling on leaders to avoid a “pitfall of rhetoric” that “this is a war of religion.”

In his first visit here as defense secretary, prior to the coalition meeting Carter met with Le Drian and then laid a wreath at the makeshift memorial to last year’s Paris attacks at Place de la République. (Here’s a nice clip of his walkabout, tweeted by @AFNEurope.)

“They were truly galvanized, as many of the Europeans were, by the attacks in Paris. Therefore, it’s fitting that we hold this meeting in Paris,” Carter told reporters aboard his plane Tuesday.

Carter said then his Paris agenda included a true working ministerial meeting: “There’s a lot of attention, and justifiably so, on the air war and on sorties and so forth, and all of these countries have contributed in one way or another to that. But we will be discussing the full suite of capabilities that are going to be required for victory here, and that includes in the air ISR transport; it includes special operations forces of the sort that we don’t talk about a lot but that we’ve introduced in a number of different ways, including the expeditionary targeting force that we have discussed; it involves things that may seem prosaic to you but are extremely important.”

The secretary also said to expect more U.S. troops in Iraq.

“I expect the number of trainers to increase, and also the variety of the training they’re giving,” he said, re-emphasizing his recent remarks back in the States.

Expanding on those, Carter said that as coalition troops take back Iraqi cities, it will be up to Iraqi police forces to keep the peace – not American soldiers, Marines, etc.

“That’s already being done in Ramadi. It will be as we move to Heet, and then to Mosul,” he said Tuesday.

Unfamiliar with Le Drian? Defense One covered his visit to Washington last July, read here, and the minister sat for a conversation with us onstage at the German Marshall Fund.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.defenseone.com/technolog...dowy-new-combat-force/125261/?oref=d-mostread

What’s Known About China’s Shadowy New ‘Combat’ Force

January 20, 2016 By Lincoln Davidson Council on Foreign Relations

On the last day of 2015, China overhauled the way its military was structured, creating a new force that's received very little attention in the foreign press.

China / Commentary

China’s military reforms, which have sped up since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, are making steady progress and the latest change in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was a big one. On December 31, 2015, the Central Military Commission formally overhauled the organizational structure of the PLA, establishing three new organizations: the Army Leading Organ, the Rocket Force, and the Strategic Support Force. The big takeaway: the Third Department of the PLA, the home of China’s cyber operations and commonly known as 3PLA, may be moving to a different command.

The Army Leading Organ appears to be a centralized command hub, aiming to coordinate joint operations between different PLA branches, which has long been a goal of China’s military reforms. The Rocket Force, which has been covered extensively elsewhere, is an upgraded version of the PLA’s strategic nuclear missile force, the 2nd Artillery Corps, and seems to be an official recognition of the branch-level role the corps has long played. The new Strategic Support Force (SSF), on the other hand, has gotten scant attention in the foreign press, and is arguably the most interesting development in this round of reforms.

In his speech at the founding ceremony, Xi said that “the Strategic Support Force is a new-type combat force to maintain national security and an important growth point of the PLA’s combat capabilities.” Many news outlets have reported that the SSF is focused on cyber operations, but Chinese press reports suggest that the new force has a wider range of responsibilities.

A report by an official news outlet compared the SSF to the armed forces of the U.S., Russia, and “other developed countries,” saying that its organization is more advanced, because it involves operations that do not fit well into any existing military force, but touch on all of them. Another report emphasized that it’s “even ahead of the United States conceptually,” which still separates support functions among all the branches of the military so that “they are constantly fighting with each other for resources.” The SSF won’t be on the front lines of combat, but rather provide “information support and safeguards.” However, unlike other support forces such as logistics, it “can use its own power to damage the enemy.” According to the same report, the SSF’s responsibilities will include the “five domains” of intelligence, technical reconnaissance, electronic warfare, cyber offense and defense, and psychological warfare.

According to SSF Commander Gao Jin, a lieutenant general with an engineering background and three decades of service in the 2nd Artillery Corps, the SSF aims to help integrate all the other PLA branches and “raise up the ‘information umbrella’ for the whole PLA system.” It will work to integrate “planning, mechanisms, resources, programs, operations, and human resources,” run strategic research projects, and be the “cloud think tank” for the PLA. Chinese reports state that the SSF was created partially as a response to “space combat forces” of other nations, suggesting that this may also be part of its operations.


See also: Here’s One Way the US-China Relationship Is Improving and China Is Among the World Leaders in ‘Secret’ Military Spending, Report Says


That’s about the extent of what we know right now about the SSF from publicly-available Chinese-language sources.

However, there is some speculation about the more concrete details of the SSF. A Zhejiang Evening News article reposted by the Global Times quotes retired 2nd Artillery Corps officer Song Zhongping as saying that the SSF is not a unified branch, but three independent branches. The first is the “cyber force,” which is made of “hacker troops” responsible for cyber offense and defense. The second is the “space force,” responsible for surveillance and satellites. The final is the “electronic force,” responsible for interfering with and misleading enemy radar and communications.

According to a Russian military expert, the SSF oversees the former PLA General Staff Headquarters Third and Fourth Departments, which were responsible for technical reconnaissance, cyber intelligence, electronic warfare, and offensive cyber operations, as well as the Foreign Affairs Bureau of the former PLA General Political Department, which oversees propaganda efforts targeting adversary military forces and populations. It will be responsible for “military intelligence at large and for the psychological operations in particular,” which suggests that it may also include the former Second Department which was responsible for military human intelligence. The SSF may also be given command of special operations units.

It remains to be seen how rapidly this reorganization will be conducted, exactly what roles formerly held by other PLA units will be placed under the SSF, and how exactly the SSF will work with the other PLA branches. The impact of this reorganization on China’s military cyber operations—for espionage, offense, and defense—also remains to be seen. A recent essay on Chinese cyber strategy published by the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, emphasized the importance of centralized command for cyber operations to reduce the risk of escalation. Hopefully, the creation of the SSF is a move in that direction.

This post appears courtesy of CFR.org.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/just-how-secure-are-india-and-pakistans-nuclear-materials/

Just How Secure Are India and Pakistan's Nuclear Materials?

The Nuclear Threat Initiative’s 2016 index does not paint a reassuring picture of nuclear materials security in South Asia.

By Ankit Panda
January 21, 2016

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Just how well are India and Pakistan, South Asia’s two nuclear-armed rivals, taking care of their nuclear materials? The Nuclear Threat Initiative’s (NTI) 2016 Nuclear Security Index ranks 24 countries that possess “one kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials” across a range of indicators of nuclear security–both India and Pakistan fall into this category.

The index also measures security indicators for an additional 152 countries that possess zero or less than one kilogram of fissile nuclear materials. I covered the 2014 NTI index for The Diplomat, commenting on India’s low ranking, which placed it below both China and Pakistan for nuclear materials security.

In the 2016 iteration of the index, there’s good news for India. Notably, its ranking on nuclear materials security is improved, placing it one rank ahead of Pakistan on the ranking of indicators affecting the likelihood of nuclear materials being stolen. India comes in at 21 out of 24, while Pakistan is ranked 22 (Iran and North Korea fill out the bottom of that ranking).

Both South Asian nuclear powers receive a comparable aggregate score across the relevant indicators, which include the quantities and sites where nuclear materials are stored, their security and control measures, adherence to global norms, domestic commitments and capacity, and their risk environments.

Notably, India outperforms Pakistan on the global norms measure but lags behind Pakistan on the measure for domestic commitments and capacity. This reflects a feature of Indian nuclear security that I’d commented on in my report on the 2014 NTI index. Notably, Indian regulations for nuclear sites are written as guidance rather than as binding requirements. Additionally, India lacks an independent regulatory agency though it has pledged to establish one.

The 2016 country profile for India in the NTI index states that India’s improved ranking is due to its participation “in bilateral assistance activities with the United States and putting in place the [International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA)] Additional Protocol.” The NTI index expresses concerns about India’s lack of attention to the issue of “insider threats,” an issue that was highlighted in a recent Foreign Policy article.

Meanwhile, the NTI index scores for Pakistan across are also discouraging. Pakistan is often cited as one of the more dangerous countries in the world given its growing nuclear arsenal, investment into low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons, and unstable internal environment. The NTI index reflects these realities, but acknowledges that Pakistan’s domestic commitments and capacity to prevent the theft of nuclear materials are fairly good in the region.

Though Islamabad comes well behind in the rankings for its domestic nuclear security commitments, it manages to outrank India, China, Israel, Iran, and North Korea. Unlike India, it has an independent regulatory agency and robust domestic nuclear materials security legislation in place. Pakistan, however, has not implemented the IAEA Additional Protocol. Additionally, it’s political instability and lack of effective governance also set it behind. The NTI index country profile adds that the “presence of groups interested in and capable of illicitly acquiring nuclear materials” also adversely affects Pakistan’s score.

Though India may have surpassed Pakistan in the 2016 NTI index, the overall picture of nuclear security between the two nuclear armed South Asian giants is not reassuring. Both India and Pakistan remain outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and regularly rattle sabers over the disputed territory of Kashmir, among other issues.

South Asia remains the most likely region for the first post-Second World War use of nuclear weapons. Even if the risk of state conflict is reduced, however, the possibility of fissile materials falling into the hands of non-state actors with malicious intent is not a distant threat, as the NTI’s 2016 index attests.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-and-iran-a-tale-of-two-nuclear-programs/a-18995249

North Korea and Iran, a tale of two nuclear programs

After rolling back sanctions against Iran, the US is moving to impose tougher measures against North Korea. But pressuring Pyongyang to scale back its nuclear program will likely prove more difficult.

Date 21.01.2016

US President Barack Obama's policy toward Iran and North Korea began with a change in rhetoric. Branded as "rogue states" by past presidents, the two countries were now referred to as "outliers."

"President Obama gave both countries a structured choice," Robert Litwak, who served as the director of nonproliferation on President Bill Clinton's National Security Council, told DW.

"Come into compliance with international norms and reap the benefits of increased integration in the international system, or persist in policies that contravene their obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and face isolation," Litwak said.

Confronted with the same choice, Iran and North Korea took different paths.

'North Korea less integrated'

Last weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency verified that Tehran had fulfilled its obligations under the terms of the July nuclear deal. The United States and the European Union reciprocated by lifting a host of economic sanctions.

While Iran dismantled centrifuges and poured concrete into the Arak nuclear reactor, North Korea claimed in early January to have detonated a hydrogen bomb, its fourth nuclear test to date. Experts doubt the hydrogen bomb claim, saying Pyongyang most likely detonated another atomic weapon.

H-bomb or A-bomb, the United States is moving to impose additional sanctions over the incident. Last week, the House of Representatives backed stricter sanctions, and the Senate is expected to vote on a similar package by the end of the month. Try as it might, however, Washington has less leverage over North Korea due the country's extreme isolation.

"North Korea is much less integrated into the international system than Iran because it doesn't seek to sell a major commodity like oil on the international market," said Litwak, director of International Security Studies at the Wilson Center.

And the largest importer of Iranian oil was the European Union, giving the West direct leverage over the Islamic Republic's economy.

In the case of North Korea, China is the key economic player, and Beijing has proven reluctant to apply much pressure, fearing a state collapse that could send a wave of refugees across its border. Visiting South Korea on Wednesday, US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on China to do more to reign in Pyongyang.

'Strategic patience'

As isolated as North Korea may be, US sanctions have had an impact when they hit the right pressure points. In 2005, the Bush administration threatened to blacklist a bank in Macau called Banco Delta Asia, suspecting that Pyongyang was laundering money through it.

According to the Wall Street Journal, authorities in Macau responded by closing North Korean accounts, freezing some $25 million in assets. China, Vietnam and Mongolia also began freezing North Korean assets as a precaution, concerned that the US would target their accounts if they didn't.

In response, North Korea boycotted talks with the US and tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006. The financial pressure, however, became so great that Pyongyang agreed to dismantle its nuclear program in return for the seized money. North Korea didn't keep its end of the bargain.

According to Litwak, North Korea already had an estimated ten nuclear weapons by the time Obama entered the Oval Office. The White House focused on preventing Iran, which was expanding uranium enrichment, from also acquiring a nuke.

"The administration made Iran a priority and mobilized international opinion, with North Korea the administration has pursued policy called strategic patience," Litwak said.

Under this policy, the administration has refused to resume negotiations until North Korea agrees to a goal of denuclearization. So far, Pyongyang has kept Washington waiting.

"Strategic patience has not had a sufficient pressure... to bring a turnabout in North Korean policy, and in the meantime they've been building up their nuclear arsenal, probably through the uranium enrichment route," Litwak said.


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The US president has said the nuclear deal paved the way for resolving issues "without resorting to another war." Obama's statement comes as State Secretary John Kerry said the US will repay a debt with interest. (17.01.2016)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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https://www.nknews.org/2016/01/will-a-post-deal-iran-outsource-the-bomb-to-north-korea/

Will a post-deal Iran outsource the bomb to North Korea?

Worries that Tehran sanctions relief further funds Pyongyang’s nuke development

Dennis P. Halpin
January 20th, 2016

As the negotiators celebrate “Implementation Day” of the Obama Administration’s Iran nuclear deal less than two weeks after Pyongyang conducted its fourth nuclear test, a critical question remains: is Pyongyang-Tehran nuclear cooperation now really a thing of the past? One takes limited comfort from the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which provided certification for Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement, is the same organization that, under the 1994 Agreed Framework, oversaw the freezing of North Korean plutonium production at Pyongyang’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor. This occurred even while Pyongyang was simultaneously pursuing a secret, second path to nuclear weaponry via a highly enriched uranium program. The IAEA involvement with North Korean denuclearization compliance came to an abrupt end when Pyongyang expelled all IAEA inspectors from the country in December 2002. Will the IAEA be more observant and successful with Iran this time around?

President Obama hailed the new agreement with Iran in his recent State of the Union address, noting that “as we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, shipped out its uranium stockpile, and the world has avoided another war.” His words stand in marked contrast to those uttered by another president in another State of the Union address over a decade ago. In January 2002 then-President George W. Bush warned the Congress and the American people that North Korea and Iran constituted a part of an “axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.” Kim Jong Un demonstrated with his January 6th nuclear test that he is still arming and further threatening peace. The question is: is his former “axis of evil” partner Iran really ready to throw in the nuclear towel?”

Business Insider noted in a January 6 article that “Iran has established ties to the North Korean nuclear-weapons program.” North Korea expert Gordon Chang went further, raising the possibility in the Daily Beast that some Iranian officials may even have gone to witness the latest North Korean nuclear test even as their government was finalizing its nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (Permanent Five UN Security Council members plus Germany): “Another reason today’s test would be ominous is Iran may have witnessed it and helped the North Koreans. During all three previous North Korean detonations, Iranians, including the shadowy Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the chief of Tehran’s nuclear program, were present.” Japan’s Kyodo News reported, in fact, that Iranian President Ahmadinejad approved the payment of “tens of millions of U. S. dollars” to North Korea to facilitate the travel of an Iranian delegation to observe Pyongyang’s previous nuclear test in February 2013. Any data provided by Pyongyang to Tehran on any of the four (2006, 2009, 2013 and 2016) North Korean nuclear test results – presumably for a price – would prove a treasure trove of information on the design and yield of the devices detonated, a matter of great interest to Iranian nuclear scientists.

And, according to the Business Insider article, it “wouldn’t necessarily be a violation of the nuclear deal for Iran to access information from a North Korean nuclear test. Thomas Moore, a former non-proliferation expert for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Business Insider that he doesn’t think that accessing this information would necessarily be a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), either … possession of test data isn’t specifically proscribed under a provision in the Iran agreement that addresses prohibited activities related to nuclear-weapons design.”

OUTSOURCING THE BOMB?

The Washington Times reported last September 15 that “the Iran nuclear deal is silent on an issue that the CIA and proliferation experts are concerned about: that Tehran may outsource parts of its nuclear and missiles program to the secretive regime in North Korea.” The paper went on to note that CIA Director John Brennan acknowledged that his agency “is monitoring whether Iran may try to assist its clandestine nuclear program with help from another rogue state such as North Korea, or by colluding with Pyongyang toward the secret purchase and transfer of nuclear weapons for Tehran.” The Times then quoted Michael Rubin, an analyst of the American Enterprise Institute, as stating “Kerry and crew left a loophole a mile wide when they effectively allowed Iran to conduct all the illicit work it wants outside of Iran, in countries like North Korea or perhaps Sudan.” The Obama Administration indicated continuing concerns over the trustworthiness of Tehran by imposing new sanctions on Iranian firms and individuals involved in a recent ballistic missile test immediately after implementation of the Iran deal was announced and U.S. hostages were freed.

Dr. Larry Niksch, a 43-year veteran of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and currently with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), appeared as a witness before a House Committee hearing titled “the Iran-North Korea Strategic Alliance” on July 28, 2015. Niksch, an expert on North Korea-Iran nuclear cooperation, testified concerning the use of Iranian funding to bankroll North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Niksch noted that “after 2011, I have seen a reverse flow from Iran into North Korea, expanding Iranian investment of personnel and money in North Korea’s domestic nuclear and missile programs. Iranian missile scientists were stationed in North Korea for a large part of 2012, well into 2013, to assist North Korea in preparing for that successful 2012 long-range missile test.” He further observed that “Iranian money appears to be the lubricant for North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. The Iran nuclear agreement will increase Iran’s wealth considerably as U.N. economic sanctions are lifted and Iran receives at least $50 billion from the United States in frozen assets.”

It seems to be a reflection of the old adage of “having your cake and eating it too:” Tehran gains up to $100 billion in sanctions relief and revenue from renewed oil sales while at the same time contracting with North Korea to do its nuclear testing for it and sharing in the critical test results. And Pyongyang equally benefits – gaining further funding for its internationally-condemned nuclear program through access to funds provided to Tehran under Iranian sanctions relief, thus possibly being indirectly funded by the United States.

The only losers appear to be those seeking to prevent the further proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially to rogue regimes. Momentarily putting aside questions concerning the trustworthiness of the Tehran regime in honoring its commitments to the Obama Administration, one is still left wondering about a deal which seems to indirectly fund North Korean nuclear weapons development. Does it make any sense to enable the de facto nuclear state of North Korea, one already in possession of an arsenal of at least 10 to 15 nuclear weapons, so that it can continue to pose a direct nuclear threat to U.S forces forward deployed in South Korea and Japan as well as to the civilian populations of those two close American allies? Just ask the moms and dads of our 28,500 service men and women stationed in South Korea.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/01/485_195959.html

Posted : 2016-01-21 09:28
Updated : 2016-01-21 09:33

More nuclear, missile tests required for North Korea to master miniaturization technology: CRS report

Additional nuclear and missile tests would be required for North Korea to master the technology to put a nuclear warhead on a long-range ballistic missile, a recent U.S. congressional research report said.

The Congressional Research Service made the assessment in the Jan. 15 report, titled "North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation," saying the official position of the director of national intelligence (DNI) is that the North "has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile."

"Miniaturization likely would require additional nuclear and missile tests," the report said. "Perhaps the most acute near-term threat to other nations is from the medium-range Nodong missile, which could reach all of the Korean Peninsula and some of mainland Japan."

The report also noted the White House cast doubts over the North's claims of a successful hydrogen bomb test.

"The U.S. government confirmed that the underground explosion was a nuclear test, but a White House spokesman said that initial data was 'not consistent' with North Korean claims of detonating a full-fledged thermonuclear hydrogen bomb," the report said, adding that the North's three previous tests involved fission devices.

It also raised the possibility that the North could have tested a "boosted fission weapon," saying testing such a device could be the next step after testing fission weapons on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb. Boosted fission weapons would also be lighter and smaller than a fission weapon with comparable yield, it said.

The report also said the North's development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles is not considered an "imminent" threat, saying the December test of an SLBM was a "failure."

"SLBM technology is extremely difficult to develop, and the reports of testing do not indicate that North Korea's prototype ballistic missile submarines represent an imminent threat," it said.

It cited an unidentified expert on North Korean military affairs as saying, "under optimal conditions this (SLBM capability is) an emerging regional threat rather than an imminent threat. It does not represent an emerging intercontinental threat."

(Yonhap)

 

[Housecarl]

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/wednesday-20-january-2016

Wednesday 20 January 2016
Air Date: January 20, 2016

Hour One
Wednesday 20 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, in re: his op-ed in the WSJ, on a boosted-fission weapon; and warheads on long-range missiles: must be smaller and lighter. In 1953 when the Russians made a boosted-fission device, they called in a hydrogen weapon. DPRK test: so deep that US overflights cannot detect radiation. . . . Inject tritium; heat it for fusion, emitting lots of neutrons that then fission to produce not one addtl neutron but maybe five. Ergo, don't need as much explosive or heavy casing; much more efficient and lightweight, higher yield. Newly-arriving nuclear nations start not with the clunky tech from the 1950s but with a system that could send H-bombs to Paris, London New York, etc. Also, can use lower-grade material from only a power reactor – of which there are many many hundreds around the world Also, can beat inspection buy slipping lithium into a power reactor, and we certainly do not have the capacity currently to monitor that. http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-dangers-from-that-north-korean-nuke-test-1453162539

Wednesday 20 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, in re: his op-ed in the WSJ; and: Reactor-grade plutonium is all over the world. Iran, Turkey, South Kroea, and Japan, among many other places. Russia could, and so could China. The IAEA could do a reasonable job of tracking Pn locked in to spent fuel; but not so good at monitoring Pn extracted therefrom, principally Japan and India. The can do a lot better; and have historically got permission to have cameras linked to satellites and fiber-optic links to look every five minutes or so, Absent that permission, have to go every three months to download camera pix. A country could turn off the lights and have no image for a long time; ISAWEA wouldn't know till three months later. IAEA owns spectacular technology – can track stray molecules the host didn't know existed – but it can't be everywhere at once [and the IAEA is horribly politicized – editor]. Large reactors and heavy-water production plants: need to be looking in Iran and North Korea, which it is not doing. We have to be much more heard-nosed about monitoring, incl friends like Japan, but also potential adversaries, like China. Talk occurring about boosting as a way to race forward in nukes; internationally, medium-level personnel understand, but it's not clear that the higher-ups do. http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-dangers-from-that-north-korean-nuke-test-1453162539

Podcast
http://embeds.audioboom.com/publish...udio_clips?include_child_channels=1#‘Boosted’ Fission Nukes & Proliferation. 1/20/16: Gordon Chang. Henry Sokolski. David Livingston. Jens Biele. Afshin Molavi.

___

For links see article source.....
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-dangers-from-that-north-korean-nuke-test-1453162539

Opinion | Commentary

The Other Dangers From That North Korean Nuke Test

Scoffing at Pyongyang’s hydrogen-weapons claims ignored new, dangerous potential developments.

By Victor Gilinsky and Henry Sokolski
Jan. 18, 2016 7:15 p.m. ET
Comments 36

The first thing to say about North Korea’s Jan. 6 nuclear test is that, despite the pronouncements of instant experts, we know almost nothing about its technical characteristics. Even the relation of the seismic signal to the actual size of the explosion is uncertain. But there are some hints about the test’s significance for proliferation that the press, in its eagerness to dismiss North Korea’s claim that it detonated a hydrogen weapon, seems to have missed.

The estimated small size of the explosion—roughly six to nine kilotons according to South Korean officials—has been taken as a sign that it did not involve a two-stage thermonuclear device (thermonuclear being synonymous with “hydrogen weapon” in the bomb business). That is likely correct, but not necessarily for the reason stated. The purpose of a low-yield experimental explosion might have been to check thermonuclear design parameters. But a two-stage design is indeed a big step from a fission bomb, so we can reasonably set this possibility aside.

Unless the North Koreans were lying through their teeth when they claimed it was a hydrogen explosion, there is another possibility—one with lower technological demands, but still potent implications. A small amount of thermonuclear fuel, say a tenth of an ounce, inserted into a so-to-speak standard fission warhead can markedly improve its performance while allowing a very substantial reduction in weight. Known as a “boosted” fission weapon, it was invented in the late 1940s at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the U.S., so the technology is nearly 70 years old.

Boosted fission technology results in lighter warheads, which means they can fit on missiles. It also—and most concerning for those of us in the nonproliferation business—permits a fission bomb to use any type of plutonium, including so-called reactor-grade, without degradation in performance.

Here’s how it works: When about 1% of the fission reaction has taken place, the thermonuclear fuel—deuterium and tritium (doubly and triply heavy hydrogen)—reacts and floods the remaining nuclear explosive with neutrons. Thus, the weapon needs less conventional explosive to trigger the nuclear reaction, and less heavy material surrounding it to keep it together long enough for the fission to take place. With a boosted weapon there is no concern about stray neutrons starting the fission chain reaction too early and having the bomb blow apart before attaining full yield.

Today’s missiles are highly accurate, so there is no need for the huge thermonuclear yields—up to megatons—sought years ago to compensate for missing a target by miles. And boosted fission technology puts plutonium stockpiled from the operation of nuclear power plants essentially on a par with so-called “weapons-grade plutonium.” We say “essentially” because some adjustment in design is needed to compensate for the greater heat generation in power-plant material, though engineers know how to do that.

Boosting is still pretty sophisticated technology, but not beyond countries with nuclear facilities and highly qualified scientists and engineers. The significance of North Korea’s boosting test—if that is what occurred—goes far beyond the region. Pyongyang is known for selling weapons technology and may sell this one, a worrying prospect. Equally concerning is that North Korea may have received the boosting technology from a more experienced state.

We may be witnessing a new, more virulent form of nuclear proliferation. If additional countries opt for nuclear weapons—the worry list includes several Middle Eastern nations, from Iran to Turkey, and Far Eastern states, including South Korea and Japan—they should not be expected to content themselves with 1945-era designs, even as a starting point. The tremendously greater availability of more-advanced designs, the rapidly growing increases in technical capabilities like computing and materials science, and improved methods for shaping materials assures that this will be so. Several of these countries have nuclear-power reactors. Others plan to get them. Some have stockpiled reactor-grade plutonium.

There is no question now, if there ever was, that the plutonium produced in nuclear-power reactors—whether in Russia, Iran, Japan, France, Pakistan or the U.S.—is weapons material. Unfortunately, many in the national security and arms-control communities have not caught up with these developments.

To return to whether North Korea has progressed toward hydrogen weapons: Although we agree with the general view that this is unlikely, it may be unwise to dismiss the possibility. North Korea’s technical personnel have been especially ingenious in their ability to perform with very limited resources. A former chief inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency, who is familiar with North Korean capabilities, made the point by telling us that if he were on a desert island and could choose one person to help him survive, he would choose a North Korean engineer.

Mr. Gilinsky served as a U.S. nuclear regulatory commissioner, 1975-84, and is an adviser to the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Mr. Sokolski, NPEC’s executive director, is the author of “Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future” (Strategic Studies Institute, 2016).

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1200818/arms-racing-redux/

Arms Racing Redux?

by Michael Krepon | January 20, 2016 | 5 Comments

Back in the day – that would be the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80’s — arms racing was the norm. The “action-reaction” phenomenon ruled. If one superpower unveiled a new weapon system or improved hard-target-kill capabilities, the other superpower was sure to follow. MIRVs begat MIRVs, cruise missiles multiplied, and target lists expanded as deployed warheads reached stratospheric numbers. No potential strategic offensive advantage could go unanswered. “Overkill” was trumped by the imperative to avoid being placed at a disadvantage. Anxiety overruled common sense.

The offense-defense competition made everything worse. If one superpower demonstrated interest in national ballistic missile defenses, the other would act to ensure that warheads would still get through. The “mad momentum” of the arms race was a constant. The best the superpowers could accomplish in the 1970s was to limit deployed capabilities, and even then, prospective limits prompted end-arounds and bargaining chips.

It was not until the advent of the Reagan Administration and a radical reformer in the Kremlin that unorthodoxy held sway and the Rules of the Game changed. When the dealers overrode the squeezers around President Reagan, previously unimaginable outcomes became possible. Missiles with shorter ranges that were well-suited for preemption were eliminated in return for the dismantlement of missiles threatening U.S. allies. The threat of space-based missile defenses was traded in for deep cuts in strategic forces. Reagan and Gorbachev broke the mad momentum of the arms race by dismissing the underlying war-fighting capabilities behind their nuclear deterrents.

Is arms racing now picking up speed again? We still use the terminology of arms racing out of habit, just as we talk about arms control when we now mean arms reduction. A careful look suggests change as well as familiar behaviors. Nuclear arms have indisputably staged a comeback. Four of the NPT Nuclear-Weapons States (NWS) are undertaking or are planning to undertake expensive strategic modernization programs. India and Pakistan have flight-tested more new types of missiles since 1998 than any of the NWS. North Korea brandishes its nuclear arsenal and tests devices. Vladimir Putin views nuclear weapons as backstopping Russia’s resurgence.

All of this is well worth worrying about – especially since there is comparatively little happening on the other side of the ledger to reduce nuclear dangers and nuclear arsenals. Treaty-making is at a standstill, and will remain slow-footed even if the Conference on Disarmament revives. The next best shot at negotiated reductions may not arrive until New START is nearing expiration — if Moscow and Washington are looking to cut expenditures for nuclear excess. This is a very long time to wait and watch aging weapon systems being replaced by new ones.

Everyone justifies these expenditures in the name of deterrence, but the flip side of deterrence has always been nuclear war-fighting. What has changed is that, with the exception of China, the NWS’s ongoing and prospective strategic modernization programs are about replacement, not about build-ups. Replacement in some cases will accompany shrinkage. Budget constraints do not fade when negotiations lag. There are no technical revolutions on the horizon that would lend major impetus to arms racing, as there were during the Cold War (with the possible exception of boost-glide vehicles). And while regional missile defenses will become more important, plans for national missile defenses are likely to remain on the shelf.

The testing of nuclear devices was always the handmaiden to arms racing, but testing is now confined to one outlaw state. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty’s norm against testing becomes more meaningful every year, even without the Treaty’s entry into force. The taboo against the detonation of mushroom clouds on battlefields is now over 70 years old. The extension of these norms cannot be taken for granted, but they constitute powerful restraints. Because of them, the utility of nuclear weapons is shrinking much faster than existing arsenals. Russian and U.S. nuclear enclaves haven’t gotten this message.

In Asia, where stockpiles are growing, the pace of expansion is far slower than during the Cold War. The two major powers in Asia that could greatly pick up this pace – China and India – are taking their time. So far, they have not signed up Cold War strategies that equate nuclear deterrence with war-fighting capabilities. The possibility of strategic restraint in Asia, despite the absence of arms-control arrangements, is greater than most Western strategists anticipated. The triangular strategic competition among China, India, and Pakistan is interactive and serious, and will be tested by the advent of MIRVs. But there is still a decent chance that Beijing and New Delhi will not go overboard.

The enterprise of arms control was a Western construct conceptualized in the early 1960s as a needed replacement to hollow superpower pronouncements championing general and complete disarmament. The practice of arms control accomplished much, despite its limitations – including constraints on nuclear testing, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and strategic-arms limitation accords. But the concept of arms control didn’t prevent arms racing until immediately before and after the demise of the Soviet Union, when significant strategic arms reduction treated were negotiated.

We have been eating this seed corn ever since. The challenge before us is to conceptualize the next goal and the next phase of reducing nuclear arsenals and nuclear dangers. This time around, conceptualization in the West will be insufficient; a more inclusive approach will be needed. The end goal is abolition, but we have learned that abolition is not an effective organizing principle. So, what is the next phase and the next goal? And then, even harder, how do we achieve the conditions necessary for success?

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Comments

E. Parris (History)
January 20, 2016 at 11:49 am

What you say is very stimulating and valid, but I believe that a satisfactory answer is unavailable unless you inject the dynamics of economics and politics into the equation. In our case, President Eisenhower warned of it, but our system has not changed, it has only gotten worse. Why can’t we lead the world in a new direction?

Reply

ybutt (History)
January 20, 2016 at 12:37 pm

A particular threat is the proposal by many that nuclear power is “needed” to “solve” (highly uncertain) climate change.

A vast increase in enrichment and nuclear material leakages come hand in hand with a massive nuclear power renaissance.

Reply

Mark Gubrud (History)
January 20, 2016 at 1:51 pm

“There are no technical revolutions on the horizon that would lend major impetus to arms racing, as there were during the Cold War (with the possible exception of boost-glide vehicles).”

The most important emerging technology is information technology, which has already yielded precision weapons and is now moving to autonomous weapons as the technology moves to artificial intelligence – a genuine technical revolution which will have HUGE social, economic, political and security consequences.

Unless we agree to ban autonomous weapon systems, their development will be a major impetus to arms racing over the next few decades. Most of the new weapons will be non-nuclear but it is impossible to decouple non-nuclear from nuclear weapons buildups when the adversaries are nuclear-armed.

Hypersonic missiles, both boost-glide and powered, are of far, far less importance; they offer few if any advantages over ballistic and cruise missiles and are essentially niche weapons. Nevertheless, they are another source of impetus to further strategic weapons competition and poison for nuclear arms reductions.

Space weaponization, as China and Russia strive to duplicate capabilities demonstrated by the United States over the last two decades, are yet another technological impetus to arms racing today and in the coming decades.

The term “arms race” suggests a heated, desperate competition to get ahead and stay ahead of potential enemies in preparing for war, as in the pre-WW2 arms race or the Cold War from the 1950s to 1980s. But these are just the extreme cases; the more general phenomenon is the action-reaction cycle which can percolate along as it has over the past two decades, and gradually heat up as is happening now. Inputs which stimulate this cycle include emerging and improving technolgies (and the perceived need to replace older systems) as well as political antagonism, miltarism and ongoing wars, and the perception of danger.

The phenomenon exists at a continuum of intensities. What we can say with little doubt today is that it is heating up again, and poses a very great danger of reheating to Cold War levels in the near future, i.e. over a time scale of years to decades.

Reply

Howard W. Hallman (History)
January 20, 2016 at 3:22 pm

As one who has favored nuclear disarmament from an idealist, religious perspective for the benefit of humankind, I believe that we should also emphasize the mutual self-interest in nuclear disarmament. Resources redirected to more useful purposes. Greater safety in a world without nuclear weapons.
Howard Hallman

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Jonah Speaks (History)
January 20, 2016 at 9:25 pm

I like the observation that arms control has become arms reduction, and arms racing has become arms replacement – a change for the better, if only half a loaf. For the near future, reducing nuclear danger should focus primarily on reducing the odds of nuclear war, rather than reducing arsenals (but no harm doing both).

Reducing the odds of nuclear war requires mutual adherence to these principles:
1) Severely limiting or eliminating launch-ready missiles – i.e. take the missiles off high alert.
2) Severely limiting or eliminating tactical nuclear weapons, and plans to nuke “military” targets.
3) Adoption of the principle of no-first-use of nuclear weapons by all nations.
4) For severe crises or wars that tempt the threat of nuclear use, issue warnings and orders for evacuation rather than detonate nuclear weapons. Mutual evacuations of cities would be costly and inconvenient, but would substitute for the catastrophic destruction of people, property, and environment in an actual nuclear war.

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[Housecarl]

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...id-cairo-flat-believed-used-militant-hideout/

Bomb kills six, including three cops, during raid on Cairo flat believed used as militant hideout

AFP-JIJI

Jan 22, 2016
Article history

CAIRO – A bomb blast killed six people, including three Egyptian policemen, when a team of officers on Thursday raided an apartment in Cairo suspected to be a militant hideout, police said.

The explosion in the capital’s Al-Haram district, near the pyramids, came ahead of Monday’s anniversary of the 2011 revolution that ousted longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak.

“Six people have been killed in the blast, including three policemen. The others include a civilian and two unidentified men,” a police officer told AFP.

Fifteen other people were wounded.

Security officials said the impact of the explosion damaged part of the residential building housing the apartment.

The neighborhood of Al-Haram has witnessed several attacks and gunfights since the overthrow of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013.

It is known to house many sympathizers of Morsi and used to be regular venue for clashes between his supporters and security forces in the aftermath of his ouster by then army chief and now President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

The district also houses several hotels inhabited by tourists visiting Cairo, given its proximity to the pyramids.

On Jan. 7, a gang of youths hurled fireworks and fired bird shot at police guarding a hotel in the area where Arab Israelis were staying.

No one was hurt but the interior ministry said at that time that unknown assailants had gathered outside the hotel and carried out the attack.

Militants have regularly attacked policemen and soldiers since the army toppled Morsi.

The Cairo bombing comes after gunmen killed five policemen late Wednesday when they attacked a checkpoint in the North Sinai town of Al-Arish.

The Islamic State group’s Egyptian affiliate, the Sinai Province, claimed that attack.

The Sinai Province is spearheading an insurgency against security forces in the region, and has carried out deadly attacks in North Sinai as well as in other cities, including Cairo.

Jihadis say their attacks are in retaliation for a brutal government crackdown targeting Morsi’s supporters that has left hundreds dead and thousands imprisoned.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://news.yahoo.com/nato-top-brass-discuss-future-strategy-force-posture-104126467.html

NATO top brass agree to recommend changes in alliance

Associated Press
By JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG
7 hours ago

BRUSSELS (AP) — Top NATO brass on Thursday agreed on changes to recommend in the alliance's force posture and decision-making procedures to better deal with a more aggressive Russia and other evolving security threats.

"We'll continue to work on those readiness and responsiveness issues that bring our force to a better position to be able to react to all challenges," from the Arctic to the Middle East and North Africa, said U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's supreme commander in Europe.

Breedlove told a news conference that the 28-nation alliance is also considering fine-tuning how it takes military and political decisions so "these new capabilities that we are developing can be brought to bear at speed."

The closed-door meeting at alliance headquarters in Brussels brought Breedlove and other top NATO commanders together with the military chiefs of staff of NATO member countries. Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford attended for the first time in his role as chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs.

Czech Army Gen. Petr Pavel, chairman of NATO's Military Committee, said the session was designed to generate advice for member governments in the run-up to the NATO summit in July in Warsaw, and to help the alliance "steer a clear course through these rough seas." The military leaders' recommendations will be given to ambassadors from NATO countries to discuss before a meeting of defense ministers on Feb. 11, Pavel said.

"We must remain focused on our strategic goal: preserving our system of security in the face of those who would wish to overwhelm it, and those who wish to undermine it," Breedlove said.

In response to a reporter's question, Pavel said that since assuming leadership of NATO's Military Committee last June, he had tried several times to speak to top Russian generals, but found "a lack of will on the Russian side to have that communication."

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[Housecarl]

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...or-threat-reaches-india-before-hollande-visit

Islamic State Threat Reaches India Before Hollande Visits

by Natalie Obiko Pearson
t natalieobiko

January 21, 2016 — 2:00 PM PST
Updated on January 21, 2016 — 7:40 PM PST

- Police arrest four for plotting attack at Hindu holy site

- 20,000 security personnel to be deployed for Republic Day

India is taking no chances ahead of President Francois Hollande’s three-day visit on Sunday as threats grow from militant groups including the Islamic State.

Police arrested four students in their early 20s this week who planned to attack both a Hindu pilgrimage site and Delhi shopping malls that are frequented by foreigners and wealthy Indians, according to Arvind Deep, a police official in the capital. The men were in touch with handlers in Iraq and Syria, Times of India reported, citing unidentified sources.

The threat comes as Islamic State-linked militants become active in Asia following a high-profile attack in Paris last year. After gun and bomb attacks in Jakarta last week killed four civilians, Malaysian police detained four people with suspected links to Islamic State and Singapore deported 26 Bangladeshis it accused of supporting violent extremism.

Hollande will join Prime Minister Narendra Modi at India’s annual Republic Day parade on Jan. 26, an honor given to U.S. President Barack Obama a year ago. The French leader has vowed to fight the Islamic State “as long as necessary" after terrorists killed 130 people in and around Paris. France has been conducting airstrikes against the group in Syria and Iraq.

‘We’ve Been Lucky’

India, meanwhile, has barely registered among the Islamic State’s ranks of 30,000 foreign fighters despite its 172-million strong Muslim minority population -- the third largest in the world. This is even as it faces constant attacks from Pakistan-based extremist groups, including one earlier this month at a northern Indian air base killed 13 people.

"We’ve been lucky," said Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs near New Delhi. "In a sense, we’re long overdue for an attack, and as IS loses territory, it’s got to make up for it by terrorist attacks on soft targets around the world. From their point of view, India is an infidel country carrying out policies inimical to Muslims."

Some 8,000 police officers and 12,000 paramilitary personnel will be deployed in the capital, along with more than 200 closed-circuit television cameras, snipers atop buildings and sniffer dogs, according to a Delhi police spokesman. Airlines also requested passengers to arrive earlier for flights as airports tighten security ahead of the event.

A mock drill was conducted by the National Security Guards, the country’s elite anti-terrorism force, at a busy market frequented by foreigners in the heart of the capital. Commandos raided a restaurant to free hostages, the Hindustan Times newspaper reported. The local police is also working on intelligence inputs and is on alert for any terror related incident.

Threatening Letters

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency is assisting Indian and French authorities to ensure the safety of Modi and Hollande, the Times of India reported, citing people it didn’t identify. Home Minister Rajnath Singh convened a meeting with top intelligence and investigative officials last Saturday to discuss the threat of a "lone wolf" Islamic State sympathizer launching an attack during the parade, the Press Trust of India reported.

Despite being relatively unscathed, India has seen warnings. Last week, the state secretariat in Goa received a postcard purportedly signed by the Islamic State threatening to kill Modi and Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar, PTI reported. The message expressed anger at a ban on the slaughter of cows, which Hindus consider sacred.

The French consulate in Bangalore on Jan. 11 received a three-line letter in broken English warning Hollande against visiting India, Daily News & Analysis reported, citing a police official it didn’t identify.

Pakistan Ties

About 150 Indians are under surveillance for alleged online links with the Islamic State, according to PTI. As many as 30 others have been intercepted while traveling to the conflict zone, include one man from Hyderabad who was arrested this month as he tried to board a flight to Dubai to make his way to Syria via Turkey, the news agency reported.

Paradoxically, the additional threat present by the Islamic State may help India improve ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Chaulia said. The two nations have fought three wars since splitting apart in 1947.

"We’ve been a little complacent because our focus has always been on Pakistan," he said. "But the Islamic State is a threat to the entire subcontinent -- we now have something in common. It means things get more complicated but it also creates opportunities for cooperation."

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ican-student-for-hostile-act-state-media-says

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http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/22/asia/north-korea-american-student/

North Korea arrests American student for 'hostile act,' state media says

By Hilary Whiteman, CNN
Updated 9:19 AM ET, Fri January 22, 2016 | Video Source: CNN


(CNN) An American college student has been arrested in North Korea.

Otto Frederick Warmbier was detained in Pyongyang on January 2, according to Young Pioneer Tours, the China-based travel company he was with.

The tour group said Warmbier's family has been informed and that it is working with the U.S. State Department, the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Swedish Embassy, which carries out some consular services for U.S. citizens in North Korea, to address the incident.

Warmbier is a third-year student studying commerce at the University of Virginia, according to The Cavalier Daily, the school's student newspaper. School spokesman Anthony de Bruyn would only say that the school "has been in touch with Otto Warmbier's family and will have no additional comment at this time."

North Korean state media said Warmbier, who reportedly entered North Korea on a tourist visa, is accused of carrying out "a hostile act against the DPRK," referring to the acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea.

Warmbier entered the country "for the purpose of bringing down the foundation of its single-minded unity at the tacit connivance of the U.S. government," the report said.

The North Korean government has arrested and accused other U.S. citizens of similar charges in the past.

The U.S. Embassy in Seoul says it's aware of the reports of the student's arrest.

On a recent visit to Pyongyang, North Korean officials allowed CNN to interview another American prisoner.

The man identified himself as Kim Dong Chul, a naturalized American, who said he used to live in Fairfax, Virginia.

"I'm asking the U.S. or South Korean government to rescue me," Kim said during an interview at a hotel in the North Korean capital.

Kim, 62, said he was arrested in October 2015 while he was meeting a source to obtain a USB stick and camera used to gather military secrets.

CNN's Will Ripley, Zahra Ullah and K.J. Kwon contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/tunisia-curfew-protests-angry-youth-threaten-arab-spring-success/

CBS/AP/ January 22, 2016, 9:07 AM

Unrest threatens Arab Spring's 1 "real success story"

KASSARINE, Tunisia -- Tunisia imposed a nationwide overnight curfew Friday in response to growing unrest over unemployment as protests across the country descended into vandalism in several cities, harking back to the upheaval that sparked the Arab Spring almost five years earlier in the same country.

The curfew from 8 p.m. until 5 a.m. was to begin Friday because the attacks on public and private property "represent a danger to the country and its citizens," the Interior Ministry said. The previous night, police stations came under attack and security officers used tear gas to repel protesters armed with stones and Molotov cocktails.

In housing projects on the outskirts of the capital, Tunis, roving groups of young people pillaged a bank and looted stores and warehouses.

Tunisia's prime minister, Habib Essid, was cutting short a visit to France to deal with the protests, which were triggered Sunday when a young man who lost out on a government job climbed a transmission tower in protest and was electrocuted. Tunisia's unemployment stands around 15 percent, but is 30 percent among young people.

"Are we not Tunisians too? It's been four years I've been struggling. We're not asking for much, but we're fighting for our youth. We struggled so much for them," said Leila Omri, the mother of an unemployed graduate in Kesserine.

The suicide five years ago of another unemployed youth in the area set off a popular uprising that overthrew Tunisia's longtime ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and eventually gave rise to the "Arab Spring" uprisings across North Africa.

Tunisia's government on Wednesday announced a series of measures for the outlying regions and an investigative commission to look into allegations of corruption.

Tunisia has often been held up as a relative success story from the Arab Spring -- one of the few nations that saw a populist uprising end in relative peace and a new, democratic government.

Since 2011, terrorist attacks have plagued the country, but only last year did Islamic extremists operating in Tunisia turn their attention from targeting security forces, toward attacking the nation's vital tourism industry.

In June, as holiday makers from Europe and across the Arab world packed the famed beaches of the resort town of Sousse, a gunman claiming allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) opened fire on a stretch of sand in front of luxury hotels and cafes, killing almost 40 people.

That attack, and a similar one earlier in 2015 at the world-famous Bardo Museum in Tunis which also appeared to target foreign visitors, dealt a serious blow to Tunisia's image as a stable, democratic nation emerging from its revolution in 2011, said Jonathan Hill, a professor of Defense Studies at King's College in London.

"The terrorists are attacking Tunisia's reputation," he said. "Not just as a safe and welcoming destination for Western holidaymakers, but as the one real success story to emerge out of the Arab Spring."

Nearly half a million Britons visited Tunisia in 2014, but with the attacks last year, Simon Calder, a London-based travel commentator predicted that the U.K. Foreign Office would "declare the summer effectively over for Tunisia, and it will destroy -- besides the lives taken -- the tens of thousands of livelihoods who depend on tourism for a living."

 

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http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/01/22/world/africa/ap-af-burkina-faso-unrest.html?_r=0

Africa

Former Presidential Guard Attack Armory in Burkina Faso

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
JAN. 22, 2016, 6:21 A.M. E.S.T.

OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso — Burkina Faso's army says that suspected members of the former presidential guard broke into an armory west of the country's capital.

Army spokesman Guy Herve Ye said Friday that armed men attacked the warehouse of weapons outside of Ouagadougou around 3 a.m. He said they're believed to be elements of the presidential guard, which staged a short-lived coup in September.

The army has said no one was hurt. The area is now heavily guarded by soldiers.

Authorities arrested some 20 soldiers in December, saying they planned to break the coup leader from prison.

After the week-long coup, the transitional government disbanded the presidential guard and arrested its leaders. It was loyal to the former president who was ousted in a popular uprising after 27 years in power.

 

[Housecarl]

Moldova: pro-Russian opposition storms parliament building, to stop new pro-EU Government
Started by Possible Impactý, 01-20-2016 09:00 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...p-new-pro-EU-Government&p=5921743#post5921743

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http://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-politics-idUSL8N1552K7

Industries | Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:13am EST
Related: Financials, Industrials

Thousands protest in Moldova after PM hastily sworn in at midnight

CHISINAU | By Alexander Tanas


Jan 21 At least 8,000 people protested in the Moldovan capital on Thursday against the appointment of Prime Minister Pavel Filip, whose hasty swearing-in ceremony at midnight also prompted a government spokesman to resign.

Parliament appointed Filip in hopes of ending months of political stalemate after the previous government was toppled in a no-confidence vote in October.

But the move has caused a backlash from opposition lawmakers and prompted a series of protests from citizens unhappy with Filip's close ties to a prominent oligarch. There is widespread anger at Moldova's ruling elites after a $1 billion banking fraud plunged the country into crisis last year.

The repeated protests threaten to derail Filip's chances of running a stable government, at a time when Moldova sees its economy sinking and is trying to negotiate new funding from overseas lenders, including the International Monetary Fund.

"I don't see the advantages of Filip's government and there are lots of minuses. He was approved without any public support," said analyst Nicolai Tveatkov. "(The government) is temporary and one cannot speak of achieving political stability."

A small of group of demonstrators broke into the parliament building on Wednesday demanding new elections, clashing with riot police. Underscoring the sense of chaos, the spokesman of President Nicolae Timofti later resigned.

"I told the president about my resignation as a result of an extraordinary occurrence, which personally related to myself and is regrettable," spokesman Vlad Turcanu told reporters.

"I told journalists that the swearing-in ceremony of Filip's government had been postponed to Thursday. That was the official position of the president up until 2200 on Wednesday ... After that, closer to midnight the decision was taken to carry out the swearing-in ceremony," he said on Thursday.

Opposition lawmaker Bogdan Tirdea was similarly scathing.

"The government must take responsibility for the night-time swearing-in, which was carried out secretly from the public," he told Reuters. "This cabinet is illegitimate."

Moldova's ruling class was targeted in mass protests over the banking fraud, which saw the equivalent of one-eighth of Moldova's gross domestic product disappear overseas.

The protesters say Filip is part of the problem. He has close ties to Vladimir Plahotniuc, one of Moldova's richest men, who was a focus of the protests.

"Plahotniuc, don't forget that your home is in prison" the protesters shouted on Thursday. (Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Tom Heneghan)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-attacks-idUSKCN0V00D7

World | Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:45am EST
Related: World

Islamist gunmen kill 17 in Somalia beach restaurant attack

MOGADISHU

At least 17 people were killed in the Somali capital of Mogadishu when five Islamist gunmen set off bombs and stormed a popular beach-front restaurant late on Thursday, Somali police said.

Al Shabaab, a militant group aligned with al Qaeda, said its fighters set off two car bombs at the Beach View Cafe on Mogadishu's popular Lido beach, and engaged in a gun battle for hours with government troops trying to flush them out.

"The operation ended at 3 a.m. last night and at least 17 civilians were killed," police officer Osman Nur told Reuters on Friday.

Somalia's security minister, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, said four of the gunmen were killed and one was captured alive.

"The government forces rescued hundreds of civilians who were dining there," he told state-run Radio Muqdisho.

Police said al Shabaab fighters set off the first car bomb at dusk. A huge second blast, which witnesses said echoed around the city center, struck about an hour later as government soldiers laid siege to the restaurant.

Al Shabaab, which regularly targets hotels and restaurants in the capital, seeks to topple the Western-backed government and impose a strict version of Islamic law across Somalia, a nation racked by conflict since the outbreak of civil war in 1991.

The group at one point controlled most of Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu, but in recent years an African Union peacekeeping force has wrestled most of that territory away from the group.

Somalia's prime minister urged the public to remains calm and called the attack on a civilian target was a desperate move by a group facing annihilation.

"Let it remain clear that (the attack) will not hamper the commitment of my government and that of our people to resurrect Somalia," Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke said in a statement.

The attack came a week after al Shabaab overrun an African Union base near the Kenyan border, saying they had killed more than 100 Kenyan soldiers. Kenya has not commented on the toll.


(Reporting by Feisal Omar; Writing by Drazen Jorgic; Editing by Edith Honan and Alison Williams)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/01/22/the_end_of_chinas_long_view_108931.html

January 22, 2016

The End of China's Long View

By Robert N. Hein

Zhou Enlai and Henry Kissinger. Henry Kissinger is usually credited with asking Zhou Enlai about the effects of the French Revolution on China. (Bettmann/Corbis)

China is often credited with taking the long view to achieve its strategic goals; however, that luxury may be coming to an end. There is an oft-quoted story about former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, who, when asked about the effects of the French Revolution on China, demonstrated the Chinese long view by answering, “It is too soon to tell.” U.S. strategists, on the other hand are often limited in their ability to plan beyond the current administration. They have watched China slowly grow in power, both militarily and economically, over the last few decades with an arguable long-term goal of displacing the U.S. as the dominant global power, all the while focusing their own efforts on wars in the Middle East. China has remained in the shadows of global security, rarely venturing out to address even regional challenges, hoping their gradual, long term, hegemonic rise would become a fait accompli. That hope may now be at risk.

DEMOGRAPHICS

A booming population with scarce agricultural resources led Chinese leaders to adopt a One-Child Policy in 1979. While this policy mitigated exponential population growth and prevented a Malthusian catastrophe, the effect is an aging demographic that will weigh heavily on Chinese power/control in the coming decades. In short, a relatively small under-30 crowd will have to support a much larger over-70 crowd. The ramifications are already being felt. In 2012, China’s workforce decreased by 3.5 million and is forecast to continue its decline. Some estimates indicate that by 2020 Shanghai, a city with almost 15 million people, will have a population in which fully one-third will be over age 60. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal estimates that by mid-century the population of China will consist of 186 single men for every 100 single women, a recipe for increased crime and dissension, (as well as a continued declining birth-rate). China’s ability to maintain a self-sustaining workforce is waning rapidly.

A SLOWING ECONOMY

China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10%. Those days are over. China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7%, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond. Why does this matter? If China wants to become a global power, it will need the funds to do so. That money must be used for external investment, military procurement, and continued infrastructure development. Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.

THE MIDDLE-CLASS TRAP

A third factor contributing to China’s slowdown is a phenomenon called the middle-class trap, whereby a country transitions from a poor to middle-class economy through basic manufacturing and textiles. The difficulty lies in developing those skills to take industrialization to the next level, such as providing education and training for the new industries. China has been unable to develop its education infrastructure to meet its requirements. The wealthy are able to send their children overseas, and China sends over a quarter million of its students to US colleges and universities. However their inability to meet educational demand domestically will limit their ability to meet professional domestic requirements, thus limiting their ability to make the transition to an advanced economy. Basically, China is great at making “things,” but how much has China actually developed? Of course, as the middle class increases, and wages improve, industries in search of cheap labor migrate elsewhere, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, or Vietnam, leaving China in search of employees and incapable of continued development. While not inevitable, many Latin American countries such as Brazil have fallen into this trap. They cannot compete with countries with greater capabilities in more technology-intensive goods and services. Because like China, they have never developed the policies and institutional environment to make the leap to high-tech or industrial economic development—what is often referred to as industrial policy.

RISING PLURALISM

Protests are on the rise in China, especially small-scale protests, with dozens or a few hundred people in attendance, take place frequently. On Jan 1, for example, there were demonstrations in Beijing, Nanchang, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Changde, and Dalian. While not always politically motivated, they are growing in number. And in 2015, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Hong Kong wieldingumbrellas to reduce the anticipated effects of tear gas. While Hong Kong is a somewhat special case, these “umbrella demonstrations” show a disconnectedness between the government and the people not seen since the 1989 protests in Tienanmen Square. The government of China is more concerned with its own citizens than they are from external threats. This is evident by an internal security budget of 769.1 billion yuan which exceeds the much-hyped Chinese defense budget of 740.6 billion yuan. The Communist Party is discovering the price of a stronger economy: a middle class that demands basic rights. In 2014, the Chinese leadership was so concerned about its domestic situation the Communist Party instructed party officials to curtail: promotion of constitutional democracy; promotion of universal values; promotion of individual rights; neo-liberalism; open press; historic nihilism (questioning the party’s interpretation of history); and questioning reforms. This is not a sign of a healthy administration but rather one that sees itself in danger. The Communist Party is struggling to limit the seeds of democracy.

CONCLUSION

With an aging populace, a slowing economy, and a rising middle class desirous of individual freedoms, China no longer has the luxury of pursuing gradual global hegemony. The realization that continuous unfettered growth is ending helps explain the sense of urgency China is exhibiting through the rapid military growth and global economic outreach of the past few years. China no longer finds comfort in an infinite event horizon; rather they are coming to a recognition that decline is imminent. China’s power is still rising, but the slope of that line is rapidly flattening, and China knows that if it doesn’t reach its objectives soon the opportunity may be lost. This suggests China is likely to become more aggressive in achieving their objectives in the coming decade. The best answer the West has to prevent Chinese ambitions in the near term is to ensure a level of deterrence strong enough to demonstrate that the additional costs to China just isn’t worth it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Captain Robert N. Hein is a career Surface Warfare Officer, and member of the Military Writers Guild. He previously commanded the USS Gettysburg (CG-64) and the USS Nitze (DDG-94). The views and opinions expressed are his own and do not reflect those of the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. You can follow him on twitter @the_sailor_dog.


This article originally appeared at The Strategy Bridge.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...moderates_in_all_the_wrong_places_108930.html

January 22, 2016

Looking for Moderates in All the Wrong Places

Libya and the Failure to Learn From Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria

By Trevor Thrall


Doubling down on the same strategy that failed so miserably in Syria, the Pentagon is assessing various armed factions in in Libya an effort to find partners in the fight against ISIS. Given the recent history of U.S. intervention in the Middle East, it is hard to know what exactly the Obama administration is thinking.

They should know such proxy wars are a dead end. In fact, “an internal C.I.A. study,” the New York Times reported in October 2014, found that sending U.S. money and arms to local proxies in conflicts across the world, “rarely works.”

Whatever the administration is thinking, it is clear that they have failed to learn at least five important lessons from the experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

The first lesson is that armed groups in the middle of a civil war make lousy allies. None of the groups in Libya cares about what the United States wants; each is preoccupied with its own search for power and influence. True, some groups may agree to take U.S. support, but history reveals that they will do so in order to further their own causes, not to further the U.S. cause. Though none of the Libyan groups in question loves ISIS today, patterns of allegiance can shift quickly. Even if the United States enjoyed a deep knowledge of the Libyan political situation on the ground – which it does not – the United States has little ability to influence the behavior of proxies over the long term.

Second, providing weapons and money to existing conflicts only makes them bigger and more violent. Moreover, there is no promise that American weapons will wind up being used by groups allied with the United States or for purposes aligned with U.S. goals. U.S. experience in this regard is especially poignant. American funding to fight the Russians in the 1980s helped the Taliban rise to power in Afghanistan. In Iraq, the Islamic State has captured thousands of U.S. Humvees, rifles, pistols, mortars, and other equipment originally given to the Iraqi army.

And in Libya, U.S. weapons, including as many as 15,000 shoulder-to-air missiles, already fuel the conflict. In 2011, the United States blessed the transfer of arms from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to rebels to fight Gadhafi, only to learn that some of the weapons were going to Islamist extremists that are now fighting for control in post-Gadhafi Libya.

Third, taking sides in other people’s wars creates new enemies. By supporting “moderates” in Libya the U.S. will inevitably add to the list of people and groups who are violently unhappy with the United States. By definition, since the U.S. will not support Islamist groups, its new enemies will be the most extreme groups and this, in turn, will increase the probability of future anti-American terrorism both in Libya and elsewhere.

Fourth, small conflicts have a way of turning into large conflicts. Once the United States engages in Libya, the president’s political fate becomes intertwined with Libya’s fate. At that point the president will face significant pressure to ensure victory even as setbacks or casualties mount. In Afghanistan and Iraq, presidents Bush and Obama both ordered massive military surges after failing to make progress in pacifying the chaos on the ground. In Syria the Obama administration followed the failed rebel training program by sending thousands more Special Forces troops. From there, the slope gets even more slippery. If ISIS scores a significant military victory against U.S. forces at this point, killing or wounding dozens of soldiers, it is difficult to see how the president could keep a lid on expanding U.S. intervention.

Finally, the United States has failed to learn that being a superpower does not imply the ability to remake the domestic politics of other nations. Despite almost fifteen years of military occupation, threats, bribes, economic development support, training and funding for military and police forces, the United States has made little headway in helping Afghanistan a stable nation or encouraging the Sunni and Shia in Iraq to get along within a system of shared governance. Instead, U.S. efforts have unleashed chaos and spawned the birth of ISIS.

The situation in Libya looks in many respects much like the one in Syria – a dizzying array of factions competing for influence in a society left angry and devastated by decades of oppression and conflict. And as with Syria, U.S. efforts to shape outcomes will be overwhelmed by the more powerful domestic political dynamics at work within Libya.



Trevor Thrall is a senior fellow for the Cato Institute’s Defense and Foreign Policy Department. Thrall is an associate professor at George Mason University in the Department of Public & International Affairs and the director of the graduate program in biodefense.

 

[Housecarl]

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Taliban Faction Promises More School Attacks in Pakistan

VOA News
January 22, 2016 7:39 AM

The Taliban faction that has claimed responsibility for the massacre at a Pakistani university that killed 21 people earlier this week says that assault was just the beginning of more attacks to come.

In a video message released on social media Friday, Khalifa Umar Mansoor, the leader of the breakaway Taliban group, promised more attacks on schools and universities across the country, like the deadly one Wednesday at Bacha Khan University in Charsadda.

Mansoor described Pakistan's educational institutions as "nurseries" for those who challenge Allah's law.

'Will of God'

He said Pakistan's educational institutions provide the future workforce for the military and the government who work against the "will of God."

The spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, Mohammad Khorasani, said earlier this week that his group had nothing to do with the university attack, adding that non-military institutions are not on its list of targets.

Army spokesman Asim Bajwa released details of Pakistan's investigation into the attack Thursday.

Bajwa said Pakistan’s military chief, General Raheel Sharif, telephoned the Afghan leadership and the commander of NATO’s Afghan mission and “asked for their cooperation in locating and targeting those responsible for this heinous act and bring them to justice.”

Pakistan alleges that leaders and commanders of the anti-state Taliban militants have taken refuge on the Afghan side of the border after fleeing army-led counterinsurgency operations.

Officials have previously also blamed these fugitives for planning cross-border attacks in Pakistan.

Dismisses allegations

But Afghan Interior Ministry spokesman Sediq Seddiqi on Thursday dismissed allegations that there are terrorist bases in Afghanistan being used against Pakistan.

Seddiqi strongly condemned the Bacha Khan University attack and reiterated Kabul’s allegations that terrorist sanctuaries are located in Pakistan and are causing instability in the region.

Pakistan observed a day of mourning Thursday following the gun and bomb attack on Bacha Khan.