WAR 01-02-2016-to-01-08-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(196) 12-12-2015-to-12-18-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...18-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(197) 12-19-2015-to-12-25-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...25-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(198) 12-26-2015-to-01-01-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...01-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-security-idUSKBN0UG03B20160102

World | Sat Jan 2, 2016 11:29am EST
Related: World, Saudi Arabia

Shi'ite cleric among 47 executed in Saudi Arabia, stirring anger in region

RIYADH | By Angus McDowall


Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shi'ite Muslim cleric and dozens of al Qaeda members on Saturday, signaling it would not tolerate attacks, whether by Sunni jihadists or minority Shi'ites, and stirring sectarian anger across the region.

Hundreds of Shi'ite Muslims marched through Qatif district of Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province in protest at the execution of cleric Nimr al-Nimr, an eyewitness said. They chanted "down with the Al Saud", the name of the ruling Saudi royal family.

Nimr, the most vocal critic of the ruling Al Saud among the Shi'ite minority, had come to be seen as a leader of the sect's younger activists, who rejected the quiet approach of older community leaders for failing to achieve equality with Sunnis.

Four, including Nimr, were Shi'ites accused of involvement in shooting policemen. But most of the 47 executed in the kingdom's biggest mass execution for decades were Sunnis convicted of al Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia a decade ago.

The executions took place in 12 cities in Saudi Arabia, four prisons using firing squads and the others beheading. In December, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula threatened to retaliate against Saudi Arabia for any execution of its members.

Riyadh's main regional rival Iran and its Shi'ite allies immediately reacted with vigorous condemnation of the execution of Nimr, threatening Saudi Arabia and the Al Saud with severe repercussions, in protests ranging as far afield as India.

However, the executions seemed mostly aimed at discouraging Saudis from jihadism after bombings and shootings by Sunni militants in Saudi Arabia over the past year killed dozens and Islamic State called on followers there to stage attacks.

Saudi Arabia's ruling Al Saud family has grown increasingly nervous in recent years as Middle East turmoil, especially in Syria and Iraq, has empowered Sunni militants seeking to bring it down and given room to Shi'ite Iran to spread its influence.

The simultaneous execution of 47 people - 45 Saudis, one Egytian and a man from Chad - was the biggest mass execution for security offences in Saudi Arabia since the 1980 killing of 63 jihadist rebels who seized Mecca's Grand Mosque in 1979.

Related Coverage
› Executed Saudi preacher gave voice to anger of Shi'ite minority
› Shi'ites across the Middle East decry execution of Saudi cleric
› Iran's top leader tweets tribute to executed Saudi cleric
› Shi'ite cleric's execution may hit Saudi-Iraq rapprochement

ATTACKS

The 43 Sunni jihadists executed on Saturday, including several prominent al Qaeda leaders and ideologues, were convicted for attacks on Western compounds, government buildings and diplomatic missions that killed hundreds from 2003-06.

The four Shi'ites were convicted of involvement in shootings and petrol bomb attacks that killed several police during anti-government protests from 2011-13 in which over 20 members of the minority sect were also shot dead by the authorities.

Under Saudi Arabia's reading of Islamic Sharia law, such attacks are interpreted as "banditry", carrying an automatic sentence of death followed by public display of bodies on gibbets.

Grand Mufti Abdulaziz Al al-Sheikh, the kingdom's top religious authority, praised the executions as "just".

Most jihadist groups follow a radical interpretation of the Salafi branch of Islam, the strict Sunni Muslim school that was developed in Saudi Arabia and is still followed by its clergy; but they have long regarded Riyadh as an enemy.

Government-appointed clerics have for years denounced al Qaeda and Islamic State as religious "deviants", while the government has cracked down on jihadists at home, squeezed their funding streams abroad and stopped them traveling to fight.

However, critics of the Al Saud ruling family say it has not done enough to tackle sectarian intolerance, hatred of infidels and praise for the principles of violent jihad propagated by Saudi clerics, which they see as contributing to militancy.

Mustafa Alani, a security analyst close to the Interior Ministry, commented: "There is a huge popular pressure on the government to punish those people. It included all the leaders of al Qaeda, all the ones responsible for shedding blood. It sends a message."

Analysts have speculated that the execution of the four Shi'ites was partly to demonstrate to Saudi Arabia's majority Sunni Muslims that the government did not differentiate between political violence committed by members of the two sects.

That point appeared to be bolstered by the state-affiliated al Arabiya channel, which throughout Saturday showed graphics comparing Nimr and Faris al-Shuwail, an al Qaeda ideologue who was also executed, describing them both as "inciters".


Related Coverage
› Iran summons Saudi diplomat after execution of Shi'ite cleric: State TV
› German officials condemn Saudi execution of Shi'ite cleric
› Iranian seminary students march against Saudi Arabia: Mehr
› Hezbollah slams Saudi execution of Shi'ite cleric, blames U.S. support of Riyadh


ANGRY ACTIVISTS

Human rights groups have consistently attacked the kingdom's judicial process as unfair, pointing to accusations that confessions have been secured under torture and that defendants in court have been denied access to lawyers.

Riyadh denies torture and says its judiciary is independent.

Family members of the executed Shi'ites have vigorously denied they were involved in attacks and said they were only peaceful protesters against sectarian discrimination in the Sunni-ruled kingdom.

The cleric's brother, Mohammed al-Nimr, said he hoped any response in Qatif would be peaceful, but activists said new protests were possible.

"My mobile is getting non-stop messages from friends, all shocked and angry...The fear is for the children among those detained," an activist in Qatif told Reuters.

The Interior Ministry statement began with Koranic verses justifying the use of execution and state television showed footage of the aftermath of al Qaeda attacks in the last decade.

The executions are Saudi Arabia's first in 2016. At least 157 people were put to death last year, a big increase from the 90 people killed in 2014.


(Additional reporting by Sami Aboudi, Sam Wilkin, Noah Browning, Omar Fahmy and Katie Paul, editing by Ralph Boulton)

__

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-security-nimr-idUSKBN0UG04M20160102

World | Sat Jan 2, 2016 9:00am EST
Related: World, Saudi Arabia

Executed Saudi preacher gave voice to anger of Shi'ite minority

RIYADH

When Saudi Arabian security forces arrested Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in July 2012, it sparked days of protests where three people died, a sign of the regard many of the kingdom's minority sect held for the preacher, who was executed on Saturday.

Nimr, wiry and greybearded, had been the most vocal critic of the kingdom's ruling Al Saud clan for years before mass protests erupted among Saudi Shi'ites during the 2011 Arab uprisings, and had called for demonstrations.

The kingdom's Shi'ites have long complained of entrenched discrimination - denied by Riyadh - on the part of the government and majority of Saudi Arabia, which follow the strict Wahhabi Sunni school that regards Shi'ites as heretical.

Most of Saudi Arabia's Shi'ite clergy, and local community leaders, struck a bargain with the Al Saud in 1993 after years in exile to address their complaints. The limited progress they made pushed some of the sect toward more radical voices.

Nimr emerged as the most prominent of those after sermons in his home village of Awamiya, an impoverished part of Qatif known as a redoubt of opposition to the Al Saud, in which he called for the formation of a "righteous front" to protect Shi'ites.

Nimr's supporters, including many younger Saudi Shi'ites, have always maintained that the preacher was careful to avoid calling for violence, and highlighted his vocal criticism of the oppression of Sunni Muslims in Syria.

But in the eyes of the Saudi police and the court that convicted him late in 2014, the 56-year-old was an instigator of shooting and bombing attacks against the authorities on behalf of Riyadh's main regional rival, Shi'ite Iran.

That supposed association was particularly dangerous. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have escalated as the Arab uprisings leant a bloody edge to their struggle for influence in wars and political conflicts across the Middle East.

Nimr - and Tehran - have always denied any link between them, and his trial, where evidence was presented, was not open to foreign journalists. He had previously accused the Saudi security forces of having tortured him during his detention in 2006, which they denied.

Nimr's conviction included charges of "breaking allegiance with the ruler", "inciting sectarian strife", supporting rioting and violently resisting arrest, the monitoring group Human Rights Watch said at the time.

American diplomats who met Nimr in 2008 described him in an embassy cable later released by WikiLeaks as insisting upon the right of Saudi Shi'ites to seek external assistance in the event of conflict, a sentiment Riyadh would regard with anathema.

He told them that if open conflict broke out between Riyadh and the kingdom's Shi'ite community, he would "side with the people, never with the government".

But by executing him - and three other Shi'ites - alongside 43 convicted al Qaeda attackers, including some of the Sunni jihadist movement's most vehement ideologues, on Saturday, the chances of sectarian conflict appeared to increase.


(Reporting By Angus McDowall, editing by Larry King)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-attack-idUSKBN0UG01520160102

World | Sat Jan 2, 2016 9:55am EST
Related: World

Militants attack Indian air base near Pakistan, seven dead

PATHANKOT/NEW DELHI, India | By Mukesh Gupta and Rupam Jain Nair


Militants launched a deadly attack on an Indian Air Force base near the Pakistan border on Saturday, exchanging fire with Indian forces who, backed by tanks and helicopters, battled for more than 15 hours before wresting back control of the compound.

The assault by gunmen disguised as soldiers, in which all five attackers and at least two guards were killed, came a week after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an unscheduled visit to Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in an effort to revive bilateral talks.

Previous attempts at dialogue between the nuclear-armed neighbors have been derailed by similar incidents but, as Pakistani authorities condemned the raid, experts suggested the latest negotiations would prove more durable.

"We have seen the same pattern again and again when there are attempts to restart the peace dialogue," said Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi.

"It may lead to a momentary pause in the ...dialogue and attacks from the (Indian parliamentary) opposition for not pursuing a harder line, but I don't think it will have a long-term impact."

The gunmen entered the heavily fortified Pathankot base in India's northwestern state of Punjab before dawn, officials said. Once inside, they opened fire indiscriminately.

They had earlier hijacked a police officer's car and driven it to the base - tactics used in previous attacks believed to have been committed by Pakistani-trained militants, Punjab's police chief Suresh Arora told Reuters.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for Saturday's attack, in which a home ministry official said two guards were killed.

Sporadic gunfire continued through the day and helicopters flew as Indian troops combed the base in search of surviving gunmen. A Reuters witness said he saw two tanks go into the base.

Home Minister Rajnath Singh said in an evening posting on his Twitter feed that all five gunmen had been killed.

Singh said India wanted peace with Pakistan but that any terrorist attack would get "a befitting response", a statement analysts described as restrained.

Pakistan condemned the attack and said it wanted to build on the goodwill created in the recent high-level contacts.



Related Video


Video

Militants attack Indian Air Force base

"Pakistan remains committed to partner with India as well as other countries in the region to completely eradicate the menace of terrorism," foreign ministry spokesman Qazi Khalilullah tweeted.

TV footage showed armed guards outside the base, which is located 50 km (30 miles) from the border with Pakistan, and police stepped up vehicle checks in the area.


SLEEPER CELLS

The attack may have been carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed (the Army of Mohammed), Indian security sources said, based on an initial analysis. The Pakistan-based militant group based in Pakistan is seeking independence for Indian-ruled Kashmir.

"Punjab is also a corridor for drug smuggling and ... several (Jaish-e-Mohammed) sleeper cells have been activated in Punjab," said a home ministry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The raid resembled an assault last July by uniformed gunmen on a police post in a Punjabi border town that killed nine people.

But Saturday's attack was much more audacious in targeting a large military facility from which India's Russian-made fleet of MiG-21 fighter jets and Mi-35 attack helicopters fly. The government said the gunmen had been prevented from entering the area where "high-value assets are parked".

Security experts say tight security along the countries' disputed frontier through Kashmir has pushed the focus of militant activity south toward softer targets in Punjab.

India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir since independence and partition in 1947. The Muslim-majority region remains a bone of contention that India only recently agreed to discuss after months of on-off attempts to relaunch talks.


(Additional reporting by Paritosh Bansal, Andrew MacAskill and Karen Rebelo; Writing by Douglas Busvine; Editing by Paul Tait and John Stonestreet)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-china-protests-idUSKBN0UG0FA20160102

World | Sat Jan 2, 2016 9:53am EST
Related: World, China, South China Sea

Vietnam protests after China lands plane on disputed Spratlys

HANOI

Vietnam formally accused China of violating its sovereignty and a recent confidence-building pact on Saturday by landing a plane on an airstrip Beijing has built in a contested part of the South China Sea.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh said China had conducted a test-flight to the airfield, "built illegally on Fiery Cross Reef, which is part of Vietnam's Spratlys".

In a statement, he called it "a serious infringement of the sovereignty of Vietnam on the Spratly archipelago, contrary to the common perception of high-ranking leaders of the two countries and (to) an agreement on the basic principles for directly solving maritime issues between Vietnam and China".

Vietnam handed a protest note to China's embassy and asked China not to repeat the action, Binh said.

The two communist-led states' competing claims in the South China Sea came to a head in 2014 when Beijing parked an oil rig off the Vietnamese coast, leading to anti-China riots.

Late last year, China completed an airfield on Fiery Cross Reef that security experts say could accommodate most Chinese military aircraft.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi in November, at a time of uncertainty over what kind of leader will emerge from this month's five-yearly congress of the Vietnamese communist party, traditionally close to Beijing but now getting intense Western attention, from the United States in particular.

Both sides agreed during Xi's visit to maintain peace in the sea and build a relationship of trust.

China claims almost all the South China Sea, which is believed to have huge deposits of oil and gas, and through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year, and has been building up military facilities on the islands it controls.

As well as Vietnam and China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also have claims.


(Reporting by Ho Binh Minh; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-yemen-secusecurity-idUSKBN0UG09820160102

World | Sat Jan 2, 2016 9:12am EST
Related: World, United Nations, Yemen

Saudi-led coalition ending Yemen ceasefire, state news agency says

DUBAI


A Saudi-led coalition that has been bombing the Houthi movement in Yemen for nine months announced on Saturday the end of a ceasefire that began on Dec. 15, the Saudi state news agency SPA said, in a setback to attempts to end the conflict.

The ceasefire began in tandem with peace talks sponsored by the United Nations, but it was repeatedly violated by both sides. Nearly 6,000 people have been killed since the Saudi coalition entered the conflict in March, almost half of them civilians.

The coalition began its military campaign in prevent the Houthis, whom it sees as a proxy for Iran, from taking complete control of Yemen after seizing much of the north last year. The Houthis accuse the coalition of launching a war of aggression.

"The leadership of the coalition supporting legitimacy in Yemen announces the end of the truce in Yemen beginning at 1400 (1100 GMT) on Saturday," the agency said.

"The coalition has been and still is keen to create the right conditions to find a peaceful solution," the statement said. But the ceasefire could not be maintained because of "the continuation of the Houthi militias and Saleh forces in violating it."

The statement charged that Houthis and Yemeni troops loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh had fired ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia, targeted its border posts and shelled civilian areas where the Houthis are fighting pro-Saudi Yemeni forces.

The U.N. talks have failed to find a political solution that would end the conflict. Negotiations are set to resume on Jan. 14. It is unclear whether the resumption of full-scale fighting will scupper the peace process.



(Reporting By Omar Fahmy and Noah Browning, editing by Larry King)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-security-strategy-idUSKBN0UG09Q20160102

India Top News | Sat Jan 2, 2016 6:30am EST

Putin names United States among threats in new Russian security strategy

MOSCOW | By Vladimir Soldatkin


A new appraisal names the United States as one of the threats to Russia's national security for the first time, a sign of how relations with the west have deteriorated in recent years.

The document, "About the Strategy of National Security of Russian Federation", was signed by President Vladimir Putin on New Year's Eve. It replaces a 2009 version, endorsed by then- President Dmitry Medvedev, the current prime minister, which mentioned neither the United States not NATO.

It says Russia has managed to heighten its role in solving global problems and international conflicts. That heightened role has caused a reaction by the West, it says.

"The strengthening of Russia happens against the background of new threats to the national security, which has complex and interrelated nature," the document says.

Conducting an independent policy, "both international and domestic" has caused "counteraction from the USA and its allies, which are striving to retain their dominance in global affairs."

That in turn is likely to lead to "political, economical, military and informational pressure" on Russia, the document says."

Relations between Russia and the West reached a low after Russian forces annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in March 2014, after protests in Ukraine forced its pro-Moscow president to flee to Russia.

Since then, the West has accused Russia of aiding insurgents in eastern Ukraine. Moscow denies actively assisting the rebels.

The United States and the European Union have since imposed wide-ranging sanctions against Russian individuals and companies. Moscow has reacted by restricting food and other goods from the EU.

The document says that the United States and the EU have supported an "anti-constitutional coup d'etat in Ukraine", which led to a deep divide in Ukrainian society and a military conflict.

It also names the expansion of NATO as a threat to Russia's national security and said that the United States has expanded its network of military-biological laboratories in neighbouring to Russia countries.

The document, which serves as a basis for planning strategy related to national security by different state bodies, does not mention Syria. On Sept. 30, Russia began air strikes against anti-government rebels opposed to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally.


(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://time.com/4165489/turkey-erdogan-hitler-distorted/

World Turkey

Turkey Says President’s Hitler Comment Was ‘Distorted’

Josh Sanburn @joshsanburn
11:12 AM ET, Jan. 2, 2016

The president came under intense criticism for the comment

The Turkish presidency on Friday attempted to clarify comments made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a day earlier in which he appeared to compare his push for a stronger executive branch with Hitler’s rule over Germany.

Turkey’s president is attempting to change the country’s constitution to allow the presidency to be the country’s chief executive, a shift from its historically ceremonial role, the New York Times reports. On Thursday, Erdogan was asked whether that change could exist within Turkey’s “unitary state” and replied by saying: “There are already examples in the world. You can see it when you look at Hitler’s Germany.”

The following day, Erdogan’s office issued a statement saying the comment has been “distorted by media outlets and has been used in the opposite sense,” claiming the president meant to show that an executive can exist without a federal system of government, and that no system can totally protect against abuses of power.

“If the system is abused it may lead to bad management resulting in disasters as in Hitler’s Germany” the statement said, according to Reuters. “The important thing is to pursue fair management that serves the nation.” The statement also said it was unacceptable to suggest Erdogan was referring to Hitler as a positive example.

The Turkish president’s mention of Hitler provoked a tide of criticism from around the world and across social media. The Times highlights one particularly popular tweet which showed Erdogan’s face gradually turning into that of Hitler.

Read more: Turkey’s President Wants to Be More Like Adolf Hitler

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tu...s-president-erdogan.aspx?pageID=238&nid=93319

Turkey and Israel need each other, says President Erdoðan

Vahap Munyar – RIYADH
January/02/2016

Turkey and Israel are two countries in the Middle East that need each other, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoðan.

“Israel is in need of a country like Turkey in the region. We have to admit that we also need Israel,” Erdoðan said on his return from an official trip to Saudi Arabia.

Speaking to a group of journalists aboard the presidential plane returning to Turkey from Riyadh, where he met with Saudi King Salman bin Abdülaziz al-Saud, Erdoðan said the mutual need “is a fact of the region.”

“We need to see that. If we can take steps in reciprocal sincerity, then normalization will continue,” he added.

Relations with Israel have been tense since May 31, 2010, when Israeli forces raided a Gaza-bound flotilla of mainly Turkish activists, killing 10 people aboard the Mavi Marmara, the largest of the six vessels in the flotilla.

Presidential spokesperson Ýbrahim Kalýn said on Dec. 28, 2015, progress was made with Israel on the issue of compensation for Mavi Marmara victims, adding that Turkey had not changed its three conditions for normalization of ties between the two countries:

“There has been progress made about the second condition, the one with compensation, but we have not reached a point where we can ink it,” Kalýn told reporters at a press conference.

He said Israel has met first condition by apologizing to Turkey, and added that two more demands were still on the table: Compensation for Mavi Marmara victims and the “lift or bend” of an embargo implemented by Israel on Gaza Strip.

Erdoðan reiterated Turkey’s stance.

“On the embargo, they [Israel] said ‘goods, construction equipment can enter [Gaza] via Turkey.’ We will wait for the written text so that they do not back down,” said Erdoðan, adding that another important point for Turkey is the Israeli aggression on Al Aqsa Mosque.

Erdoðan also said sectarian differentiation in the Islamic alliance to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is “out of the question,” denying that the Islamic anti-terror military alliance announced in mid-December 2015 “has any particular sect.”

“It is out of the question that there is sectarian differentiation in the Islamic alliance, which right now includes 37 countries. The alliance is aimed at combatting terror,” he said, adding that the number of states in the alliance would increase.

“Just as there are Sunnis and Shiites in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation [OIC], it will be the same here too,” Erdoðan stated.

He said the alliance has “security, intelligence and military” aspects, as well as work aimed at preventing the “misuse of religious concepts” and maintaining solidarity to fight against Islamophobia.

Saudi Arabia had announced on Dec. 14, 2015 the establishment of an Islamic military alliance led by itself to fight terrorism, with a joint operations center based in Riyadh to coordinate and support military operations.

‘Kurdish strip’ in Syria not acceptable

In addition, the president said Ankara would “not allow a Kurdish strip” to be formed in northern Syria.

“Jerablus was one of our targets there in order to clear the region of Daesh,” said Erdoðan, using an Arabic acronym for ISIL, referring to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) possible crossing to the west of the Euphrates after Syrian Kurdish and Arab rebel forces backed by a U.S.-led coalition captured part of the Tishrin Dam.

“Watching the YPG come to that place is unacceptable. We will hold a meeting. [If we allow the YPG to cross to the west of Euphrates], a Kurdish strip will be formed to the south of us and in the north of Syria. We cannot say ‘yes’ to this,” he added.

 

[vestige]

Putin names United States among threats in new Russian security strategy

I would bump this but it is already near the top.

Will a little nudge suffice?

All read (this and U.S. news)

Hell is on the horizon.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/interna...rhauls-army-as-xi-eyes-stronger-regional-role

China overhauls army as Xi eyes stronger regional role

AFP/Shanghai
Filed on January 2, 2016

Three new units set up to improve its operational efficiency.

China has unveiled changes to the structure of its military, adding three new units, described by President Xi Jinping as "a major policy decision to realise the Chinese dream of a strong army", state media reported.

The formation of the new units, which follows Beijing's announcement that it was building a second aircraft carrier, comes with China acting more aggressively in territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, drawing the ire of its neighbours and the US.

Beijing in November said it planned sweeping changes in a move intended to enhance the Communist Party's control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

The latest reforms announced late on Friday will see a new army unit set up to oversee China's arsenal of strategic missiles.

Besides the "Rocket Force", the PLA also unveiled an army general command to serve as the headquarters for land forces and a support unit to assist combat troops, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Xi, who is chief of the Communist Party and also serves as head of the military, has previously announced plans to slash China's number of troops by 300,000 to roughly two million to craft a more efficient fighting force.

China's Central Military Commission, which Xi chairs, on Friday also released guidelines to help build the country's vision of a modern military before 2020 by cutting troops and improving the quality of combat personnel, Xinhua said.

The announcements come with China also expanding its naval capacity by building a second aircraft carrier. The nation's first such vessel, the Liaoning, is a secondhand Soviet ship built more than 25 years ago that was commissioned by China in 2012 after extensive refits.

The Global Times newspaper, known for its nationalistic editorial stance, said new conditions required a strong army and cited the United States as a reason.

"If China has a big gap with the US in terms of military prowess, this will affect its international position and other countries' attitude towards China," it said in an editorial posted on its website on Saturday.

"With a strong army, China can be more politically appealing, influential and persuasive."

Beijing's forces have been involved in sometimes tense confrontations with Japanese and Philippine units over maritime disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea, prompting fears the disputes could result in armed clashes.

The new PLA Rocket Force, meanwhile, is tasked with maintaining conventional and nuclear weaponry with the ability to both deter and strike, Xi told a ceremony for the founding of the three new organisations, according to Xinhua.

But a spokesman for China's Ministry of Defence denied any shift in the country's nuclear weapons policy.

"China's nuclear policy and nuclear strategy are consistent, there has been no change whatsoever," spokesman Yang Yujun said Friday, according to a transcript posted on the ministry's website. The new unit would take over from the Second Artillery Force, he said.

At a military parade in September, China showed off "carrier-killer" missiles, including the land-based DF-21D intermediate-range type which is thought to be equipped with onboard terminal guidance systems that give it the unprecedented ability to attack a moving target. - AFP

A Chinese analyst said the latest moves were aimed at modernising the military.

"For a long time, China had no overseas interests, the navy, air force and guided missile units were relatively weak compared with the army," Ni Lexiong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said.

"To catch up with European and American powers... China must raise the modernisation level and combat strength of the army." - AFP


Expansion to help build modern army

> China is adding three new units to its army.

> The formation of the new units follows Beijing's announcement of building a second aircraft carrier.

> The reforms will see a new army unit set up to oversee China's arsenal of strategic missiles.

> The new PLA Rocket Force will maintain conventional and nuclear weaponry with the ability to both deter and strike.

> An army general command is being set up to serve as the headquarters for land forces and a support unit to assist combat troops.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/01/116_194489.html

Posted : 2016-01-02 15:04
Updated : 2016-01-02 15:04

N. Korea seen to push ahead with nuclear ambition this year
By Choi Sung-jin

North Korea's construction of tunnels at its nuclear site indicates that Pyongyang has the intention to conduct not just the fourth but fifth and even sixth nuclear tests, said a local think tank Saturday.

"As threats to conduct nuclear and missile tests themselves have considerable impact on the regional balance of power, the North is expected to remain ready and seek appropriate timing for the tests while maintaining ambiguity about its ultimate intentions," said the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in its report about national security.

The state-run think tank was cautious about the North's military provocations, however.

"North Korea is likely to focus on taking the initiative in inter-Korean relationships while continuing to use military threats as negotiating tools," the report said. "Pyongyang will likely take caution in provocations against South Korea from a more pragmatic point of view."

With respect to the South's preparations, KIDA said, in pushing for the creation of a "kill chain" – a preemptive strike for self-defense – the government will have to check and prepare for the possibilities of legal, diplomatic and technological conflicts with the United States, while analyzing the role and ability of the South Korean military in making the correct judgment about needs.

"To effectively prepare for various crises related to nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, it is necessary for Seoul to come to a consensus with Washington through various channels in regard to the allies' joint goals, means and priorities," the report said.

The think tank also expects the contest of strength between the U.S. and China will progress to worrisome levels, not only in Southeast Asian seas but on the Korean Peninsula as well.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has focused on weakening the undue influence of the military to firm up his grip on power over the past four years, is expected to placate disgruntled generals this year. "That there were no major purges of military or other officials last year indicates Kim's management of power balance has entered into a stable stage," the report said.

In his New Year address, meanwhile, Kim did not directly mention the North's nuclear programs, focusing instead on the need for economic growth, which analysts say reflects the North Korean leader's short-term priority in the lead up to the Seventh Congress of the Workers' Party, the first in 36 years.

Kim made clear his intention to "talk with anyone who wants peace and unification," and called for Seoul to respect inter-Korean agreements, including the one made last August, passing the buck to the South for stalling follow-up talks.

In response, a Seoul government official reiterated its principles, saying, "Our position is clear in that we will keep the door open for inter-Korean dialogue and move toward peaceful unification and open the era of the Korean Peninsula."


choisj@ktimes.com,

 

[China Connection]

Well it isclear that all the sides are in position for World War Three. Going to be a not so nice year I think.

 

[mzkitty]

Well it isclear that all the sides are in position for World War Three. Going to be a not so nice year I think.

17m
Iran's Revolutionary Guards say Saudi Arabia to face backlash for execution of cleric - Mehr News Agency via @Reuters
End of alert

 

[Housecarl]

Sorry folks, had to deal with some "meat world" issues..........


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ttle-gunmen-after-attack-on-air-base-six-dead

Fresh Gunfire at India's Pathankot Air Base Boosts Death Toll

by Unni Krishnan, Kartik Goyal, Nc Bipindra
January 1, 2016 — 8:29 PM PST
Updated on January 3, 2016 — 3:06 AM PST

- Clash follows raid that happened in early hours of Saturday
- Total death toll rises to 7, including 3 air force personnel

Fighting broke out again at the Pathankot air force base in northern India on Sunday, bringing the death toll to at least seven since gunmen stormed the site before dawn on the previous day.

One member of the security staff was killed while forces were engaged in "combing and sanitizing" operations on Sunday, R.K. Bakshi, senior superintendent of Punjab Police, said by phone. At least five gunmen entered the site at Pathankot in the northern state of Punjab at about 3 a.m. local time on Saturday, state police said. Four of the gunmen were killed by security forces while two air force personnel died and six were injured in the initial raid.

The attack in Punjab happened a week after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan in a bid to accelerate peace talks between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The Pathankot attackers were dressed in army uniforms and were suspected to be from Pakistani terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Press Trust of India reported on Saturday, citing a security official it didn’t identify.

“We will give a befitting reply to any terrorist attack on our soil," Home Minister Rajnath Singh said in comments broadcast by local television stations on Saturday. India wants "good and friendly relations" with Pakistan, he added.

Pakistani Condemnation

Singh didn’t say who may have been responsible for the attack. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the raid in an e-mail and said it’s committed to working with India and other nations to “completely eradicate the menace of terrorism afflicting the region.”

While the NDTV news station said the base housed jet fighters and attack helicopters, police said the gunmen didn’t get near that part of the airport in the first raid on Saturday.

“Intelligence inputs had been available of a likely attempt by terrorists to infiltrate into the military installation in Pathankot area,” the airforce said in a statement. “Through timely and prompt action by all agencies, the likely plan of the terrorists to destroy valuable assets of the airforce has been foiled.”

India blamed Pakistan for an incident in July in which six people were killed in Punjab as four gunmen dressed in army uniforms attacked a bus station and a police complex. The raid on Saturday happened even as Punjab was placed on a state of high alert on Friday after suspected Pakistani terrorists kidnapped a senior police officer, the Press Trust of India reported, citing Senior Superintendent R. K. Bakshi.

India and Pakistan have tried to minimize tensions since an attack in Mumbai in 2008, when gunmen targeted two luxury hotels, the main railway station, a cafe and a Jewish center, killing more than 160 people. India, which said that the incident was orchestrated in Pakistan, has accused its neighbor of using terrorism to achieve foreign-policy goals. Pakistan has said normal relations can be restored only when the dispute over the divided state of Kashmir is resolved.

___

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-attack-idUSKBN0UH04E20160103

World | Sun Jan 3, 2016 8:26am EST
Related: World

Operation continues to flush out Indian air base attackers

PATHANKOT, India/NEW DELHI | By Mukesh Gupta and Krista Mahr


Indian security forces battled into Sunday evening to secure an air base near the border with Pakistan, a day after a militant attack that has killed seven military personnel and wounded another 20.

Some 29 hours after gunmen entered the Pathankot air base in the northwestern state of Punjab, firing indiscriminately, confusion reigned over whether two or more militants were still at large after four were confirmed killed on Saturday evening.

"The area cannot be declared fully sanitized," Air Marshal Anil Khosla told a news briefing in New Delhi.

Home Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi told reporters he hoped the two believed still to be at large would be "neutralized" by Sunday evening. Without recovering their bodies they could not be confirmed dead.

That contradicted earlier statements by home ministry and army officials who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the two holdouts had been killed.

The attack by gunmen disguised as soldiers came a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an unscheduled visit to Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in an effort to revive talks between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

Officials said the attack bore the hallmarks of previous suspected assaults by Pakistan-based militant groups, underscoring the fragility of recent efforts to revive bilateral talks between the often uneasy neighbors.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Pakistan has condemned the attack and said it wanted to continue to build on the goodwill created by the impromptu meeting between Modi and Sharif last month.


Related Coverage
› Operation to secure Indian air base continues: air force


MORE SHOOTING

Gunfire continued into the evening as security forces hunted the remaining attackers in the Indian Air Force base, a sprawling compound that lies just 25 km (16 miles) from the border with Pakistan.

In a TV briefing from Pathankot, Air Commodore J.S. Dhamoon said the attackers had burst into a guards' mess at the air base, where they were preparing breakfast on Saturday morning.

A guard chased after one of the attackers and killed him in the struggle, only to be shot dead by a gunman's bullet. The other three attackers were neutralized in the late afternoon, said Dhamoon.

Indian leaders had already praised the armed forces for their heroism in Saturday's shootout, with Modi saying they did not let the "enemies of humanity" who attacked the base succeed.

But that appeared premature on Sunday, as shooting broke out after midday, sparking a renewed manhunt on the base, from which Indian Air Force MiG-21 fighter jets and attack helicopters fly.

Modi, on a visit to southern India, made no further comment on the Pathankot attack.

Military trucks were seen entering and exiting the walled compound throughout the day, including a demining vehicle. Dozens of security guards continued their vigil, while protesters shouted slogans and burned a Pakistani flag nearby.

One of the Indian security men killed in the attack was Subedar Fateh Singh, who won gold and silver medals in the first Commonwealth Shooting Championships held in 1995, the National Rifle Association of India said.


BORDER SECURITY

The breaching of the base's defenses has raised questions about lax security on the international border in Punjab, which is a known route for drug smugglers and is less closely guarded than the disputed frontier running through Kashmir.

Five of the seven Indian military reported killed served in the Defence Security Corps, a unit staffed by veterans no longer in active service.

"The casualties were unacceptably high," said Nitin Gokhale, a defense analyst and journalist who said that intelligence on a possible attack had not been passed on in time to alert sentries at the base.

Police have said the gunmen had earlier hijacked a police officer's car and driven it to the base. It took 12 hours for information on the hijacking to be circulated, according to news reports, allowing the attackers to keep the initiative.

In New Delhi, two trains were delayed early on Sunday amid heightened security concerns after officials received information about a possible bomb threat on an intercity train, railways spokesman Neeraj Sharma said.

Trains were deemed safe and were running on schedule by mid-morning, Sharma said.


(Reporting by Mukesh Gupta in Pathankot, and Krista Mahr, Paritosh Bansal and Rupam Jain Nair in New Delhi; Writing by Douglas Busvine; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Susan Thomas)

 

[Housecarl]

Egypt: President Calls for Islamic Reform Again in Muhammad Birthday Speech
Started by Be Wellý, 12-31-2015 07:15 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...amic-Reform-Again-in-Muhammad-Birthday-Speech
___

Iranian cleric: Saudi Arabia's royal family will be exterminated
Started by twobarkingdogsý, Today 03:23 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...di-Arabia-s-royal-family-will-be-exterminated

Execution of Shia cleric sparks international outrage – as it happened
Started by China Connectioný, Yesterday 12:05 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...sparks-international-outrage-–-as-it-happened

BBC: Saudi Arabia breaks off diplomatic ties with Iran
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 12:26 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...i-Arabia-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-Iran


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.yahoo.com/iran-president-condemns-saudi-execution-embassy-attack-115656189.html

Iran president condemns Saudi execution, embassy attack

Reuters
55 minutes ago

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged to protect the security of foreign missions and prosecute those responsible for attacking Saudi diplomatic posts, in a series of messages posted on his personal Twitter account on Sunday.

Rouhani blamed "extremist individuals" for the attacks, which targeted the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in the northeastern city of Mashhad in response to Saudi Arabia's execution of prominent Shi'ite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

He also condemned Saudi Arabia's execution of Nimr, calling it a violation of "human rights and Islamic values" and accusing the Sunni monarchy of pursuing "sectarian policies which have destabilized the region in recent years".

Demonstrators protesting Nimr's execution broke into the Saudi embassy building in Tehran earlier on Sunday, smashed furniture and started fires before being ejected by police.

(Reporting by Hadeel Al Sayegh; Writing by Katie Paul; Editing by Dominic Evans)


Related Stories

Iran president says Saudi embassy attack 'totally unjustifiable' AFP
Iran sees 'divine vengeance' after Saudis execute Shi'ite cleric Reuters
Iran, Saudi step up war of words over executed Shiite cleric Associated Press
Iran and Iraq's Shiite leaders condemn Saudi executions AFP
Iranian protesters storm Saudi embassy, foreign ministry calls for calm Reuters

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-slams-saudi-arabia-s-execution-sheikh-nimr-al-nimr-n489326

News
Jan 3 2016, 8:11 am ET

Iran Slams Saudi Arabia's Execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr as Backlash Mounts

by Cassandra Vinograd

Flames and smoke poured out of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Iran on Sunday amid a mounting backlash to the kingdom's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

Saudi Arabia announced Saturday that 47 prisoners had been executed — including prominent Shiite opposition cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. The news sparked fears of sectarian violence and deepening tensions between two bitter rivals: Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite powerhouse Iran.

Iran's leadership responded with fury to the execution. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saudi Arabia will face "divine revenge" for al-Nimr's execution, calling it a "huge crime" and "a wrong deed."

Khamenei.ir ý@khamenei_ir

Surely, martyr #SheikhNimr will be graced by God & no doubt Divine revenge will seize oppressors who killed him & it is the point of relief.

11:22 PM - 2 Jan 2016
140 140 Retweets
165 165 likes

Khamenei's remarks came shortly after Iranian protesters chanted "Death to Al Saud" in Tehran and attacked Saudi Arabia's embassy there, throwing stones and Molotov cocktails which set off a fire. There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries as a result of the demonstration.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said al-Nimr's execution violates human rights and Islamic values but that the damage to the Saudi embassy was "by no means justifiable."

Rouhani said in a statement that he had ordered Iran's interior minister to identify the attackers and "bring them to justice, in order to put an end to these kinds of abomination and guarantee the full safety of countries' diplomatic missions."

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also issued a statement calling for "calm and restraint," saying he was "deeply dismayed" over al-Nimr's execution but "deplores" the violence perpetrated against the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

Iran and Saudi Arabia support opposing sides in Syria and Yemen. They also have accused each other of supporting terrorism.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said it had summoned Iran's ambassador to register a strongly-worded protest to Tehran's "aggressive" statements about the execution and called on Tehran to insure the security of its embassy.

It added that Iran's condemnation of the execution revealed the "true face" of supporting terrorism.

 

[Housecarl]

Mexico mayor assassinated one day after taking office
Started by medic38572‎, Yesterday 03:31 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ayor-assassinated-one-day-after-taking-office


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.voanews.com/content/mexican-mayor-killed-day-after-taking-office/3129118.html

Mexican Mayor Killed Day After Taking Office

VOA News
January 03, 2016 7:14 AM

The mayor of a Mexican city who took office Friday was killed Saturday.

Gisela Mota was killed by armed gunmen at her house in Temixco.

Morelos state security commissioner, Jesus Alberto Capella, said two attackers were killed and three were detained by federal police and soldiers.

Mota's leftist Democratic Revolution Party said in a statement Mota was "a strong and brave woman who on taking office as mayor, declared that her fight against crime would be frontal and direct."

The city's general secretary, Carols Caltenco, said the city government believed some people were threatened by Mota's inaugural speech.

Temixco is about 100 kilometers south of Mexico's capital and borders Cuernavaca, a resort that has experienced kidnappings and extortion linked to organized crime.

Some material for this report came from AP and Reuters.

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-As-Men-Linked-To-Xi-Book-Vanish-in-Hong-Kong

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.sky.com/story/1615880/china-accused-as-men-linked-to-xi-book-vanish

China Accused As Men Linked To Xi Book Vanish

Mystery surrounds the disappearance of workers at a firm producing a book about an ex-girlfriend of the Chinese president.

10:43, UK,
Sunday 03 January 2016

Chinese agents have been accused of kidnapping people in Hong Kong over a book about the love life of the country's president.


Lee Bo, an employee of the Mighty Current publishing house, disappeared last week, while four of his colleagues vanished in October.

Their employer is known for producing books critical of the government, the AFP news agency reports.

It is not clear where the men are or how they went missing, but a legislator in the semi-autonomous city claimed Chinese security services were involved.

Hong Kong police are investigating the disappearance of Mr Lee and three others, while a fifth person - a Swedish citizen - is reported to have disappeared in Thailand.

Albert Ho told a news conference: "We have a reason to believe he was politically abducted and illegally transferred to the mainland."

Mr Ho, a customer at the firm's bookshop in Causeway Bay, said he had heard from other store regulars that the publisher was going to launch a book about President Xi Jinping's ex-girlfriend.

He added: "To my knowledge ... the book concerns the story about the girlfriend ... (from) some years ago.

"There were warnings given to the owners not to publish this book.

"This book has not yet gone to print, but probably it has something to do with this book."

Mr Lee's wife said on Saturday her husband told her during a phone call that he was "assisting in an investigation".

She said the call was from a number in the nearby Chinese city of Shenzhen.

Hong Kong officially has freedom of speech and Chinese law enforcers have no right to operate in the city, but there are concerns this arrangement - set in place after Britain handed over control in 1997 - is under threat.

The case prompted small groups of protesters to march in Hong Kong on Sunday.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://freebeacon.com/culture/planning-for-armageddon/

Planning for Armageddon

Review: Brad Roberts, ‘The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century’

BY: Aaron Kliegman
January 3, 2016 5:00 am

As the media and politicians in the United States are currently focusing most national security discussions on the Islamic State and the broader threat of terrorism, there is little public focus on other, arguably more consequential challenges for American foreign and defense policy. Interestingly, one of these challenges often ignored is the only tool capable of achieving the apocalyptic vision that ISIS so violently seeks: Nuclear weapons.

American nuclear policy and strategy has largely been marginalized since the end of the Cold War, regarded as a relic from another time. Brad Roberts thinks otherwise, however, and articulates in his new and important book The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century why nuclear weapons are still essential to America’s security and interests, as well as to global stability.

Having served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy from 2009 to 2013, Roberts has unique insight into how the United States utilizes its nuclear deterrent and, just as importantly, how America’s adversaries use their nuclear arsenals to further their interests.

The main argument of the book is that nuclear weapons still play a crucial and necessary role for U.S. strategic policy, and thus, Washington should not take any unilateral steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal beyond the levels set by the 2010 New START Treaty with Russia. This is mainly because the United States “is apparently alone among the states with nuclear weapons to believe that it has more nuclear weapons than it needs.” Roberts advocates for a balanced approach to nuclear strategy in which the United States utilizes political and legal means like arms control and nonproliferation to mitigate threats as it simultaneously uses military means to keep a strong nuclear deterrent while nuclear weapons exist.

He believes America’s long-term goal should be a world without nuclear weapons but is realistic about that goal, arguing that current conditions, and those of the foreseeable future, are not right for disarmament.

To advance his thesis, Roberts first gives a helpful overview of each presidential administration’s nuclear policy and posture since the end of the Cold War. He then discusses how deterrence can work effectively in the 21st century to create the circumstances required to decrease the role of nuclear weapons.

To this end, Roberts first turns to the threats posed by “nuclear-armed regional challengers” like North Korea before presenting U.S. strategic challenges with Russia and China. Roberts describes how there is evidence that these states have all formed what he terms “red theories of victory” in which they have thought to some degree about winning wars against the United States, with nuclear weapons playing a role. To match these adversarial contingencies, Roberts hypothesizes what the U.S. response would be, in what he terms the “blue theory of victory.”

But the United States is not alone in facing these adversaries. Roberts also analyzes how Washington can strengthen deterrence for its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Northeast Asia to keep North Korea, Russia, and China at bay, all while maintaining strategic stability with the latter two. Roberts illustrates how the United States must not only deter adversaries but also assure its allies that it is committed to their defense. One difficult part for America is to show resolve, without leading to an escalation in conflict.

Roberts’ book should be required reading for policymakers involved with forming U.S. global strategy. The writing is informative and surprisingly concise for such a complex topic. Moreover, Roberts takes a balanced approach to nuclear issues, grounding his idealistic aspirations for a nuclear-free world in the realistic understanding that such an outcome is impractical and dangerous for the foreseeable future.

The book is not without its blind spots. Roberts does not include any discussion of India or Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals despite their ongoing conflict in South Asia being the tensest nuclear standoff in the world. Washington is not directly involved there and this book focuses on American policy, but a brief treatment of how India and Pakistan factor into U.S. nuclear strategy would have been appreciated.

This book bears a broader lesson for the public. Some commentators and analysts have argued that the 21st century is a new age of warfare when terrorists and non-state actors will be the primary problems for the United States. Such threats are no doubt worrisome, but Roberts’ book serves as a reminder that the greatest challenges to American national security and world order will continue to be from nation-states and traditional geopolitical tensions, with nuclear weapons playing a central role. The United States must be prepared.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asi...hinese-Sea-As-Geopolitical-Tensions-Rise.html

Oil Companies Shun South Chinese Sea As Geopolitical Tensions Rise

By Ryan Opsal
Posted on Sun, 03 January 2016 22:06 | 0

The South China Sea is continually paraded as a region rich in oil and gas deposits; however, no one really knows what’s there with any degree of accuracy. Furthermore, these possible deposits are shrouded in conflict that will not abate anytime soon, and will most likely worsen with an intensification of the security competition between China and the United States along with its regional allies, which is tightly related to these disputes.

The available exploration information in the South China Sea is either limited or old. So, there are assumptions, but evidence is shaky. The EIA estimates there may be nearly 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves all based on 2013 estimates and of course, 2013 prices. Not only were these reserves thought to be somewhat inflated at the time, but given the lower pricing currently available, this is potentially far less.

Much of these proved and probable reserves also reside in uncontested areas of the South China Sea, making for safer, albeit potentially difficult investments. This is an important distinction to make since we should be focusing on the contested areas of the South China Sea when referring to the current feasibility of oil and gas operations in the South China Sea. The core disputes in the South China Sea revolve around the Spratly and Paracel Islands, along with various shoals throughout the region typically located closer to the Philippines.

Related: Saudi Arabia Cuts Subsidies As Budget Deficit Soars

So, what deposits do these areas contain? Not much. The Spratly Islands do have some moderate, confirmed deposits but even these areas are not fully explored, and the known figures are contentious. Estimates range anywhere from 800 million to 5.4 billion barrels of oil in the Spratly Islands and associated shoals. These estimates are imprecise, and the only work that was being conducted there has ceased. A recent casualty of this conflict was the UK-based Forum Energy, which was forced to cancel their joint work with the Philippines in developing a bloc in contested territory after the Chinese voiced concern. This turn of events was so negative for the company, they even had to delist their shares from the London Stock Exchange. And, the Paracels don’t even seem to have any serious oil and gas deposits at all. There aren’t any confirmed resources in the area, nor do geological formations predict any significant finds in the immediate region, according the USGS.

If oil and gas deposits are only ancillary factors driving these disputes in the South China Sea, then what is? The main driver here is territoriality and security for China and the other competing states in the region. The underlying fundament for both is nationalism, which heavily constrains all competing states from compromise. And, as time goes on, compromise becomes even more difficult. So, the issue of energy has become intertwined with this contest for territory, leading, for instance, heads of national oil companies to refer to their oil platforms as “mobile national territory” in their speeches.

This security competition leads to troubling dynamics emerging in the region, which is economically the fastest growing in the world and responsible for nearly all oil demand increases over the past several years. The main concern is a rising power, China, potentially upsetting the regional security order, which in turn makes all other states in Asia feel less secure. This triggers a reaction from other states whereby they must counter that rising power in order to maintain their own security, fueling the potential for a conflict spiral.

Related: $10 Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

China also likes to exercise escalation dominance, a practice used heavily by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and what the strategist Edward Luttwak likes to refer to as “localized escalation dominance” in the case of China and its regional relations. In this sense, China will seek to settle these conflicts on favorable terms by sharply escalating a conflict at each level, putting the onus on the opposing side to escalate further into more dangerous territory. This means the situation has a greater chance of escalating quickly and spiraling out of control.

China is determined to gain as much military control over the South China Sea as possible, not necessarily to protect the sea lines of communication, but to provide a certain amount of strategic depth in their maritime environment, which has been a perennial weakness for China ever since the decline of Chinese naval power after the voyages of Zheng He in the 15th century.

Outside of the catastrophic potential for open conflict between China, the United States, and regional allies, there is another more probable implication of this spiral. In the age of nuclear weapons, those same weapons induce a healthy dose of caution in all belligerents, and rightly so. This also means that involved parties will instead likely be pulled into some form of economic warfare with China before any possible conflict would break out, proving difficult for some states in region. Think trade and currency wars before localized conflicts. he point is, the first step would be economic warfare causing great pain throughout the region.

Related:China's $1 Trillion Nuclear Plan

More immediate, any drilling or investments in the region would have to be carefully considered before any escalation in the region, economic or otherwise. If exploration or drilling were to commence in areas contested by China, expect to see harassment of the operations, impediments to work, and other state sponsored indirect and asymmetric means to discourage effective operations.

Another key concern for any investments would be China related business interests. Western companies that may wish to explore and develop in contested waters will be putting other business interests at risk that may be tied to China or other Chinese entities. Think global joint ventures and access to fields and markets within China’s mainland that may be denied. This is not to be taken lightly since Chinese oil companies are involved in nearly every resource rich emerging market, and the capacity of the Chinese market is quite large.

There is a strong possibility that the region will witness increasing geo-economic conflict between China, neighboring countries, and the United States. As a result, the South China Sea will likely become caught in the middle of increasing tensions and posturing throughout the Asia-Pacific. In short, there are very serious long-term dynamics shaping the investment climate in the South China Sea that should give any investor pause.

By Ryan Opsal of Oilprice.com

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.cri.cn/12394/2016/01/04/3742s911282.htm

Military Reform Deepens with Launch of Rocket Force

2016-01-04 07:37:50
CRIENGLISH.com
Web Editor: Guo Yan

China's military reform continues, with the establishment of the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force of the People's Liberation Army.

Military experts say the move will strengthen military forces and foster the modernization of the army.

CRI's reporter Guo Yan has the details.

http://mod.cri.cn/eng/news/reports/2016/1/0104gymilitary.mp3

The establishment of the Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force were deemed the most anticipated moves in the latest round of military reforms.

"Setting up the Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force is a crucial step to optimize the systems and functions of military services. It also helps to build modern military armed forces with Chinese characteristics. And it's of great significance for the army to transform from mechanization to information-based warfare."

Military expert Zhao Xiaozhuo says the rocket force plays a very important role in national security, and it's a core force of strategic deterrence, a strategic buttress to the country's position as a major power, and an important building block in upholding national security.

He notes the establishment of the Rocket Force doesn't mean that China will enhance the construction of its nuclear power. And it also doesn't mean that the country will change its nuclear strategy.

"The move by the Second Artillery Force, to change its title to the Rocket Force, aims to strengthen military construction and help professional development. Yet the building of military forces and capabilities has nothing to do with the country's purpose of using them. We have made it pretty clear our nuclear policy and nuclear strategy . Early from 1964 when China tested its first atomic bomb, we have openly promised that China stick to the policy of not using nuclear weapons and the nuclear strategy of self-defense. We have stuck to the policy for all these years."

The PLA Strategic Support Force has been labelled as a new combat power for national security.

Zhao says the establishment of the new army force aims to consolidate the previous decentralized military power and eventually improve the fighting capacity of the army.

"The purpose is to consolidate the previous decentralized military power and optimize the structure of military forces and improve the fighting capacity of the army. The step will help build a modern military force."

The Central Military Commission has released a guideline to instruct the military reform.

According to the guideline, the reform also include cutting troops from 2.3 million to 2 million, phasing out outdated armaments, developing new weapons systems, and reducing the size of the militia.

For CRI, I'm Guo Yan.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://in.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-attack-india-idINL8N14O06Q20160104

Stocks | Mon Jan 4, 2016 10:56am IST
Afghan forces besiege insurgents near Indian consulate in Mazar

MAZAR-I-SHARIF, Afghanistan | By Bashir Ansari

Jan 4 Afghan special forces prepared to clear insurgents barricaded in a house near the Indian consulate in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif on Monday after an overnight attack that coincided with an assault on an Indian air base near the border with Pakistan.

A small group of gunmen tried unsuccessfully to break into the consulate late on Sunday and shut themselves into the house but security forces halted operations overnight and were proceeding cautiously to minimise civilian casualties.

Gunfire could be heard around the area and helicopters were circling overhead as army and police commandos surrounded the area in a residential district of the city, in Balkh province, which borders Uzbekistan.

At least one civilian was wounded but the Indian ambassador said all the consulate staff were safe.

There was no indication of who may have been behind the attack, which came amid renewed efforts to lower tension between India and its rival Pakistan and restart peace talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kabul and Islamabad on the same day, underlining the drive to improve regional stability and overcome the longstanding hostility in the region.

However, Sunday's attack and a separate assault on an Indian air base in Pathankot, in the northwest Indian state of Punjab, underlined how difficult that process is likely to be.

As the attack in Mazar-i-Sharif began, Indian security forces were still engaged in mopping up the insurgents in Pathankot.

In 2014, India's consulate in the western Afghan city of Herat was hit by heavily armed insurgents including suicide bombers, one of a series of attacks on Indian diplomatic stations in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has long been suspicious of India's engagement with Afghanistan and its diplomatic presence there. (Additional reporting by Mirwais Harooni in Kabul; Writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.voanews.com/content/gun-battle-continues-at-indian-consulate-in-afghan-city/3129975.html

Gun Battle Continues at Indian Consulate in Afghan City

VOA News
January 04, 2016 1:44 AM

Officials say gunmen holed up in a building near the Indian consulate in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif, are continuing Monday to exchange gunfire with Afghan security forces.

Unidentified militants attempted to storm the consulate Sunday as gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades rocked the surrounding area.

A spokesman for the local governor said the gunmen fired rockets from a building across the street from the consulate, prompting a gunfight between security forces and the assailants. At least one civilian has been wounded in the clash.

There has been no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack.

The consulate assault is the latest in a series of attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan.

Nine civilians, including seven children, were killed in August 2013 when suicide bombers targeted the Indian consulate in the main eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad, detonating an explosives-packed car.

The assault comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited both Kabul and Islamabad last month, the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian premier in over a decade.

 

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http://financialspots.com/2016/01/04/saudi-fm-adel-bin-ahmed-al-jubeirs-pakistan-visit-postponed/

Saudi FM Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir's Pakistan visit postponed

By Michael Mitchell
Jan 04, 2016

Foreign Office spokesperson in Islamabad on Sunday has said that Saudi Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir's visit to Islamabad, scheduled for today, has been postponed.

This was done at Saudi Arabia's request, Dawn online reported.

He will have talks with Pakistani leadership on different aspects of bilateral relations and regional and global issues of mutual interest.

It will be his first visit to Pakistan since he assumed the office of foreign minister of Saudi Arabia in April 2015. The two were to address a joint news conference later that evening and invitations had already been sent out to the media.

According to officials, the objective of the visit was to consult Pakistan's leadership over joining the anti-terrorism alliance.

Islamabad had already taken policy stance a year ago distanced itself from any direct engagement of its armed forces overseas after Riyadh sought its military aid against Houthi rebels in Yemen, making it clear to Saudi government that Pakistan will respond with all its means in case of any direct threat to KSA's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Officials said the Saudi foreign minister was coming to discuss the 34-nation alliance of Islamic countries his country has cobbled together against terrorism and extremism.

The Saudi minister would now visit Islamabad on January 7, FO spokesman said.

 

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http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/04-Jan-2016/ksa-led-coalition-likely-to-be-focus-of-al-jubeir-s-visit

KSA-led coalition likely to be focus of al-Jubeir’s visit

January 04, 2016
Maqbool Malik

Islamabad - Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Bin Ahmed al-Jubeir earlier scheduled to visit Pakistan yesterday for a two-day visit will now arrive in Islamabad on January 7, Foreign Office has confirmed.

A statement issued on Sunday however did not state any reason for the postponement or rescheduling of Foreign Minister Adel Bin Ahmed al-Jubeir’s visit.

Diplomatic sources said it was because of timing of his visit (January 3-4) coincided with 3-day visit of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Sri Lanka from January 4-6.

The visit of Saudi foreign minister to Pakistan has assumed more significance after flare up between his country and Iran, Pakistan’s immediate neighbor.

Riyadh on Saturday executed of 47 men, including a Shia leader Nimr al-Nimr, allegedly for their involvement in terrorism, a development many political observers and diplomats are looking as most ‘dangerous’ largely out of fear for its fallout on unity of Muslims.

Islamabad was ardently looking towards visit of any high ranking dignitary from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) after Riyadh announced last month formation of a 34-nation Islamic military coalition – including Pakistan and excluding Iran, Iraq and Syria – to combat terrorism and extremism.

The move was reluctantly welcomed by Pakistan; however, it announced its participation in the alliance in the light of its stance on countering terrorism and in accordance with the OIC and UN resolutions.

But later, Islamabad also made clear that Pakistan will participate after discussion with Riyadh about its ‘extent of participation’ in the Saudi-led military coalition.

Islamabad had already taken policy stance last year distanced itself from any direct engagement of its armed forces overseas after Riyadh sought its military aid against Houthi rebels in Yemen, making it clear to Saudi government that Pakistan will respond with all its means in case of any direct threat to KSA’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Although government sources insist that purpose of Saudi foreign minister’s visit is to meet Pakistani leaders for further deepening of fraternal relations with Pakistan and exchange of ideas about regional and international situation, diplomatic sources still believe the visit will largely focus on Pakistan’s participation in the KSA-proposed military coalition.

Some Muslim diplomats based in Islamabad still sounding upbeat that Pakistan will play an important role in this coalition, and with its robust parliamentary democracy and decade-long expertise in countering terrorism it will take a decision to help promote Muslim unity.

On the other hand, policy experts and political observers believe that Pakistan will strike balance while taking any decision about its participation in the proposed military coalition. Some are of the view that Islamabad may also consult its strategic partner China before taking any decision which would have serious consequences in realising the potential of $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project sans Iran.

Published in The Nation newspaper on 04-Jan-2016

 

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http://www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-hesitant-to-reenter-talks-with-north/3129986.html

South Korea Hesitant to Reenter Talks With North

Brian Padden
January 04, 2016 2:37 AM

SEOUL—South Korea responded cautiously Monday to Kim Jong Un’s recent call to improve bilateral relations.

During his New Year’s Day message, the North Korean leader said Pyongyang “will make strenuous efforts to develop inter-Korean talks and improve bilateral relations.”

No talks looming

In response, Seoul’s Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-hee on Monday said there are no immediate plans to propose any new talks with Pyongyang.

Instead, Jeong chose to respond to the sharp criticism Kim directed at South Korea in his address when the North Korean leader called President Park Geun-hye’s peaceful reunification goal a disguised form of “regime change” in the North.

“We urge North Korea to face our effort to establish a basis for peaceful reunification, and put effort to create an era of peaceful reunification on the Korean peninsula through trust between two Koreas,” said Jeong Joon-hee.

Following the inter-Korean talks that collapsed in December, Seoul seems to be taking a harder stance against Pyongyang.

The two days of high-level talks in December failed to make progress on modest, non-political projects like instituting regular reunions for families that were separated by the division of the Korean peninsula and restarting cross-border tourism.

Afterwards, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se noted that the lack of trust between the North and South makes any substantial dialogue difficult. Yun downplayed the possibility of a summit between Park and Kim until North Korea curbs its nuclear weapons program.

In addition, North Korea analyst Kim Yong-hyun with Dongguk University in Seoul said, with South Korean legislative elections scheduled for April, the Park administration is unlikely to risk alienating its conservative supporters by engaging in politically risky negotiations with the North.

“At this point, it is difficult to create a mood to hold talks between the two Koreas,” said Kim Yong-hyun.

North Korea nuclear

While Kim Jong Un did not mention his country’s nuclear program during his New Year address, there are indications that North Korea may be preparing to test its thermonuclear weapons capabilities.

South Korea’s Chemical, Biological and Radiological (CBR) Defense Command reported Sunday that Pyongyang may be building a light water nuclear reactor to produce tritium, a radioactive isotope necessary to build more sophisticated nuclear weapons.

The U.S. research institute 38 North, which studies high-resolution commercial satellite imagery of the region, said last week North Korea is excavating a new tunnel. The site of the new tunnel is at Punggye-ri where Pyongyang conducted its three nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

These activities support Seoul's National Intelligence Service assertion in October that Pyongyang is preparing for its fourth nuclear test.

China’s influence debated

North Korea last year made threats to launch a long-range rocket and conduct a fourth nuclear test. Officials in Seoul have credited China with persuading the North to restrain from initiating provocative weapons tests in exchange for expanded economic development at the China-North Korea border.

However, North Korea analyst Bruce Bechtol at Angelo State University in Texas is doubtful that China wields that degree of influence over North Korea. While ties have improved of late, Sino-North Korean relations have been contentious since Beijing supported U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang for conducting its third nuclear test in 2013.

Bechtol said North Korea’s recent nuclear restraint may have been caused more by technical delays than relenting to political and economic pressure.

“It may be nothing more than that. It may have nothing to do with the Chinese. In fact that is probably likely,” he said.

Last month Kim Jong Un also claimed his country now possesses a hydrogen bomb, which is more powerful than the atomic bombs tested in the past. The U.S. discounted Kim’s hydrogen bomb claim as unsubstantiated, but cautioned that North Korea's nuclear ambitions pose a very serious risk to global peace and security.

Youmi Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.

 

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http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_Po_detail.htm?No=115954

Home > News > News > Politics

'N. Korea Likely Working on Thermonuclear Bomb'

Write : 2016-01-04 09:53:18 Update : 2016-01-04 09:59:10

South Korean military authorities say North Korea may be preparing to test a thermonuclear weapon.

The Chemical, Biological, and Radiological or CBR Defense Command said Sunday that a fresh underground tunnel being built in the Punggye-ri test site in the North is likely for thermonuclear weapons experiments.

South Korean officials explained that the assessment is based on North Korea’s recent statements and analyses from foreign governments.

They said the North could conduct a fourth nuclear weapons test this year with a new type of weapon. But the officials doubted the North’s ability to test a hydrogen bomb.

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S. Korea's ODA Budget Set at 2.4 Trillion Won

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Agri-Food Exports to Muslim Countries Jump

 

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http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/po...a-could-be-preparing-nuclear-test-seoul-says/

North Korea could be preparing nuclear test, Seoul says

Published January 03, 2016/EFE

North Korea could be preparing to test its ability to produce a hydrogen bomb, the South Korea intelligence services said Sunday based on recent military activity by Pyongyang.

The announcement comes a month after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un mentioned for the first time that his country has an H-bomb, although at the time experts doubted that the Asian pariah state could have developed the highly destructive weapon.

The North Korean regime has already completed construction of the necessary installations to test an H-bomb and it could be producing tritium, a nuclear isotope used to make such weapons, according to the report made public by South Korea's chemical, biological and radiological defense unit.

The document says that Pyongyang has dug a new tunnel at its Punggye-ri nuclear complex that "could be designed for thermonuclear testing," and the construction of which was detected by U.S. intelligence services last week.

Pyongyang to date has conducted three nuclear tests - in 2006, 2009 and 2013 - all of them at the Punggye-ri complex.

However, the South Korean weapons of mass destruction unit, which is part of the Defense Ministry, considers there to be little chance that the possible nuclear test would be that of an H-bomb.

The North could detonate a fission bomb, or atom bomb, but South Korea does not think that it is yet capable of directly testing hydrogen bombs, given that it does not seem to have reached the final production phases for those weapons, the report says. EFE

 

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http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Irans-...ting-tactics-without-changing-strategy-439258

Opinion
By FARHAD REZAEI \01/03/2016 20:45

Iran’s nuclear project: Adjusting tactics without changing strategy

- The US must regain its leadership in the global war on terror

- Not radical Islamists, but ‘Islamic infidels’

Rouhani’s reflections on Iran’s need to acquire nuclear weapons echoed classic realpolitik themes.

Many observers argued that the moderate Rouhani would be able to prevail on the regime’s hardliners to reverse the regime’s determination to achieve nuclear weapons and roll back the illicit weapons program in exchange for lifting sanctions. But is he willing or able to do so? Rouhani has been a key figure in the regime’s inner circle, occupying several important political and security positions that propelled him to the rank of one of the most influential figures on issues of national security. His background in nuclear matters is equally impressive, with an almost 24-year career in the field.

Rouhani’s reflections on Iran’s need to acquire nuclear weapons echoed classic realpolitik themes. In a work published in April 2001, he emphasized the role of “nuclear fission” in ending World War II, stating that nuclear technology had achieved what “politicians and conventional military power” could not.

His 22-month tenure at the helm of the regime’s nuclear negotiation team sharpened his nuclear diplomacy skills. Dubbed the “diplomat sheikh,” he decided to take a conciliatory approach to prevent the referral of Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council.

After the Mujahidin-e Khalq revealed the existence of the illicit program in 2002, Rouhani shuttled among Western capitals to convince them of Iran’s peaceful nuclear intentions.

Rouhani’s shuttle diplomacy was prompted by an extensive debate in Tehran; it was concluded that even if the regime were to cooperate with the IAEA, Iran’s case would nevertheless be sent to the UNSC. The resulting strategy was thus aimed at delaying the referral while preparing the economy and population for the impending sanctions. The time that Rouhani gained was useful in solving the remaining technical problems in the program, since the regime hoped to manufacture a weapon before expected limitations were to set in.

Under his diplomatic guidelines, Tehran appeared more cooperative, but the chief negotiator subsequently revealed his strategy of deception.

By his own account, while negotiating with the EU-3, he attempted to build international confidence – averting an Iranian referral to the UNSC – while at the same time assuring the continuation of the program and, equally important, increasing the volume of business with the EU.

The Europeans were even keener on restarting their lucrative business ties with Iran – angering American officials that warned of possible deception on the part of Tehran.

In retrospect, Washington was right as, in essence, Tehran exploited this relaxed atmosphere to finish a number of critical nuclear components.

As Jahanbakhsh Khanjani, a former Interior Ministry official put it, “Rouhani has ‘hidden layers,’ and it might be harder than we think to predict the president’s priorities and plans.” Even assuming that Rouhani is now genuinely working to end the illicit nuclear project, the real nuclear power elite in Iran is not ready to relinquish its nuclear vision. The nuclear program is under the personal supervision of the Supreme Leader – who has veto power – and the Revolutionary Guards. For him, the nuclear program represents the fundamental themes of the revolution and the injustice of foreign powers in denying Iran acquiring the bomb.

Some analysts argue that moderate Rouhani is determined to shape a new nuclear discourse, and strives to break from the ideologically- inspired politics of the past to pursue a more realistic course in international relations. A review of the performance of other presidents considered moderate indicates that there is little difference between the “moderates” and the “hard-liners” with regard to the nuclear project.

Indeed, acquiring a nuclear weapon has represented the collective determination of the regime leadership, shared by many of the rank and file. The chief architect of the project, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, viewed as pragmatist and moderate, deployed his diplomatic skills to engineer the non-confrontational strategy of denial interspersed with negotiations by delay to improve relationships with the world while seeking covert assistance to produce a bomb.

Elected in 1997, president Khatami launched himself as a reformer determined to engage the world in a Dialogue of Civilizations. Observers in Washington concluded that he was equally determined to eliminate the illicit program or at least scale it down. But the program’s pace had quickening during his administration, reaching a peak between 2002 and 2005. According to some insider estimates, the president was responsible for a huge increase in the project, something around 65 percent of the work required for the enrichment cycle. In fact, it was during this time that Iran constructed its secret uranium enrichment facilities and experimented with plutonium and uranium for military applications.

On September 3, 2013, the Bahar newspaper stressed that Iran could best accomplish its nuclear objectives by altering president Ahmadinejad’s confrontational policy and the overall impression of its reliability as a state. In line with Bahar’s advice, Rouhani appointed Javad Zarif, a skillful diplomat, as foreign minister, and supported Ali Shamkhani – who was deeply involved in the nuclear program and procurement of illicit technologies from Pakistan – to head the SNSC, a signal to the hard-liners at home that Rouhani intended to protect the weapon’s program.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) accord reached on July 14, 2015, presents new opportunities but is still far from being conclusive. It is not clear whether a detailed and binding inspection regime can be developed, given Iran’s record of cheating. While some analysts argue that the negotiated parameters would block Iran’s pathways to a bomb, an “ascendant” Iran may become more powerful as sanctions are lifted.

In fact, what Iran needed out of Vienna was the lifting of sanctions to revive its economy to further develop its bomb design and advance its ballistic missile program.

While considered the best option on the table by Obama administration, the JCPOA considerably enhances the regime’s capability for military mischief. The October “Emad” guided missile test was an obvious violation of the deal and UNSC resolutions, and a clear indication that Tehran will ignore restrictions at the first opportunity.

As predicted by the opponents of the deal, Iran is primarily using its billions in sanctions relief to promote additional terrorism and conflict throughout the region.

The deal also impairs Israel’s national security, and enhances the risk of war – the very risk it was supposed to prevent. As a matter of fact, far from improving the regime’s bad behavior, Iran’s behavior has changed for the worse.

Worse, when the deal expires, re-imposing sanctions will not work. The JCPOA ends the economic sanctions while permitting the regime to hide much of its nuclear activities, lacks enforcement mechanisms in case of Iranian deceit, and expires in a decade. As one analysts put it, the viability of the nuclear agreement rests on hope rather than on technical formulations.

The hope that Rouhani is able or willing to deliver a true rollback to the nuclear program is limited. Three arguments support this conclusion.

First, biographical analysis reveals Rouhani to be a hardened but consummate politician, adept at maneuvering the international community to buy time for the nuclear project.

Second, even if Rouhani had become truly convinced about the merits of terminating the military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program, decisions on all things nuclear rest with Ayatollah Khamenei, his circle of advisers and the Revolutionary Guard.

Third, the sanctions regime that propelled Rouhani to power and raised hopes of a rollback failed to fracture the regime and put the hard-liner Supreme Leader and the Guards on the defensive, even though it degraded the country’s economy. Still, the increasingly harsh sanctions gave Rouhani an opportunity to use his excellent negotiation skills to reach an agreement that would satisfy the minimum requirements of the international community while preserving the weapon program.

Ironically, in launching his new initiative, President Rouhani has benefited from the seeming willingness of the international community to lower the standards of proliferation protocols, and from the turmoil that has been shaking the Middle East. While the future of the conflict and Iran’s standing in the region are hard to predict, it is easier to envisage the continuation of the regime’s ballistic and nuclear quest.

The writer is a Middle East and Iran analyst.

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...hinzo-Abe-urges-talks-for-Russia-peace-treaty

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35219262

Japan PM Shinzo Abe urges talks for Russia peace treaty

43 minutes ago
From the section Asia

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin so that the two countries can negotiate a peace treaty.

The two never signed a treaty after the end of World War Two because of a dispute over four islands.

Mr Abe told reporters that both leaders recognised that the lack of such a document for 70 years was "abnormal".

Since taking office in 2012 Mr Abe has tried to improve relations with Moscow.

The former Soviet Union had seized several islands which Japan calls its Northern Territories in 1945. Russia calls them the Southern Kurils.

The two leaders last discussed the issue in 2013.

Mr Abe told reporters at his New Year press conference in Tokyo that he and Mr Putin "share the view that it is abnormal" for their countries not to have a peace treaty. The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1956.

"But without a summit meeting this Northern Territories problem cannot be resolved,'' he said.

He added that he would continue discussions with Mr Putin "when opportunities arise".

The disputed island chain stretches north across the Pacific Ocean from the Japanese island of Hokkaido to the southern tip of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.

 

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Sweden's Border Checks Anger Danes

by Peter Levring and Amanda Billner
January 3, 2016 — 10:56 PM PST
Updated on January 4, 2016 — 1:19 AM PST

Sweden’s decision to start imposing official border checks is leading to a rapid deterioration in relations with its neighbor to the south as Denmark warns the measures may have a ripple effect that bleeds deeper into Europe.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen used his New Year’s speech to warn that his government may now be forced to impose controls at the German border as Swedish efforts to stem the flow of Middle Eastern refugees exacerbate an already tense immigration situation. As of Monday, Sweden is checking the IDs of people crossing their border by bus, train or ferry.

“For the first time since the 1950s, one will now need an ID-card to cross” over to Sweden, Rasmussen said in the Jan. 1 speech. “This shows what’s at stake. And this can create a situation in which we will need to introduce border controls toward Germany, if we decide that’s what’s best for Denmark.” In a Facebook post on Monday, Rasmussen said the decision will create “difficulty and problems for the many people who every day commute” between the two countries, describing it as a “major step backwards.”

The spat marks a low point in Danish-Swedish relations after Prime Minister Stefan Loefven last year joined Germany in welcoming hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers fleeing persecution in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Sweden was then forced to backtrack on its generous policy, arguing that Europe’s failure to share the burden of absorbing refugees made its position untenable. About 80,000 asylum seekers arrived in Sweden in October and November, roughly as many as entered the country in all of 2014.

Travelers headed for Sweden on Monday were met by manned controls at the train station at Copenhagen airport, the last stop before trains cross the Oeresund bridge to Malmoe, Sweden’s third-largest city. Each day, about 74,900 people cross the bridge, which connects Sweden to Denmark and is the longest road and rail link in Europe. Another 20,900 use the ferry between the towns of Elsinore and Helsingborg.

In the 1990s, the two countries wanted to create a cross-border business and urban area, which they estimated would more than justify the 30 billion-krone ($4.4 billion) cost of building the Oeresund bridge. The plan also received European Union funding, and has been held up as a prime example of economic integration across borders.

But the border checks, to which Norway has also resorted, are testing the Schengen agreement that was supposed to ensure passport-free travel across much of Europe. The influx of people fleeing war in the Middle East may pose an even bigger threat to Europe’s economy than the debt crisis from which it has only just emerged, Nobel economics laureate Angus Deaton said last month. The development “could certainly make the economic situation very much worse,” he said in an interview in Stockholm.

 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia-idUSKBN0UH0I720160103

World | Sun Jan 3, 2016 12:18pm EST
Related: World

Failed Catalan government makes another Spanish election more likely

MADRID | By Sonya Dowsett


Catalan far-left party CUP said on Sunday it would not support acting regional head Artur Mas in his bid for another term, forcing new local elections and increasing the likelihood all Spaniards may have to return to the ballot box this year.

The drawn-out process of forming a government in Catalonia echoes the political stalemate gripping Spain at a national level following an inconclusive general election two weeks ago.

The prospect of new elections in Catalonia, most likely in March, increases the likelihood of a second general election this year as the receding threat of a strong Catalan government seeking a split from Spain will reduce pressure on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's center-right People's Party (PP) and the opposition Socialists to form a grand coalition to stand up to a separatist Catalan administration.

At the same time, pro-independence Catalan parties with seats in Spain's parliament will now be less likely to support a coalition government that does not allow a referendum as they begin campaigning for another round of regional elections on a separatist platform.

CUP, a fringe anti-capitalist party which rejects Catalan membership of NATO and the European Union, has held the key to the formation of the regional government since September elections awarded a majority to pro-independence parties, but it has repeatedly rejected the candidature of Mas, who heads a center-right, business-friendly party.

The future of Catalonia is at the center of talks between national parties on whether to form a grand coalition after Spaniards, disillusioned by recession and high-level corruption cases, turned away from establishment political forces and voted for new parties in last month's general election, leaving no party with a majority.

Whether to allow Catalonia a referendum on independence is a major sticking point preventing a left-wing alliance between newcomer Podemos, which supports a vote, and the Socialists, who don't.

However, the messy and protracted process to choose a Catalan leader in the aftermath of the September election, hailed at the time as a victory for separatists, has cast a pall over the independence movement and highlighted its divisions.

Separatist fervor has dulled since 2012 when at the height of Spain's recession around one million people turned out onto the streets of Barcelona clamoring for independence.

A tentative economic recovery has started to chip away at one of the highest unemployment rates amongst developed nations and Catalan businessmen have warned that political uncertainty in the region could put off investors.

Meanwhile, high-level corruption cases have also touched the independence movement with former regional president and prominent Catalan nationalist Jordi Pujol charged with money laundering on Wednesday as part of a long-running investigation into his hidden bank accounts.


(Reporting By Sonya Dowsett; Editing by Susan Fenton)

 

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http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-chinese-aggression

Deterring Chinese Aggression

by Nathan Jennings
Journal Article | January 3, 2016 - 11:11am

Tensions between China and nations across the South China Sea have simmered for the past decade as competing states contest territorial waters and economic exclusion zones. As the leading power in the Asia-Pacific region since World War II, the United States, and its peerless military in particular, should begin deploying diverse and scalable elements of national power to promote coalitions to deter Chinese aggression. This would fulfil the 2015 National Security Strategy’s imperative to, “manage competition from a position of strength while insisting that China uphold international rules and norms.”[1] While objectives should both limit and accommodate Chinese ambitions, the judicious application of diplomatic, military, economic, and informational capabilities in the South China Sea and across the Pacific basin—in concert with empowering coalitions—offers the best hope for achieving a peaceful balance of power.

Any effort to form coalitions to deter Chinese belligerence begins with American diplomatic leadership. As the traditional guarantor of international freedom of navigation and commerce in the region, the United States is uniquely positioned to sponsor and guide any emerging multinational partnerships. It alone possesses the national power and influence and lead combinations of conciliatory and provocative diplomacy. This would include both bi-lateral and multi-lateral economic arrangements and broader military coalitions with long-standing allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, and newer partnerships with modernizing powers like India, Vietnam, and Burma.

The reemergence of a 21st century version of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization—similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Europe—would be offer a possible diplomatic objective. While the President and State Department officials would lead these efforts, senior military leaders would play a pivotal role in securing agreements by adding martial credibility. The commander of U.S. Pacific Command, in particular, would emerge as an important figure in any security cooperatives and provide multinational and joint leadership as the lead flag officer. As a final and important task, American diplomats and senior officers could mediate disputes over coveted islands, both natural and artificial, to prevent hostilities between China, South Korea, and Japan.

The U.S. military itself, as a second and decisive element of national power, would provide the foundation of any multi-national security agreement. As recently argued by the commander of U.S. Pacific Command before the U.S. Senate, American strategy in the region must include “the forward presence of military forces to engage allies and partners and deter aggression.”[2] With the ongoing build-up of the Chinese armed forces, the formation of a robust and vigorous military coalition would be necessary to provide credibility to diplomatic initiatives. Though American naval and aerial forces would remain central to any attempts to project national power, the U.S. Army, as the premier landpower institution in the Free World, would also remain crucial to multi-national efforts with increased rotational presence by combined arms forces across islands and the main-land continent.

This military coalition, perhaps arriving as a reimagined SEATO, would include multiple lines of effort to create multiple and simultaneous dilemmas to confound Chinese responses. Beginning with large-scale, multinational exercises, American joint forces could lead numerous small-scale naval, land, and air training events that could culminate in an annual coalition-wide exercise designed to demonstrate ability to conduct major campaigns. Similar to REFORGER exercises by NATO in Europe in decades past, this kind of cooperation would solidify the alliance and communicate resolve. In addition to multi-lateral engagements, the U.S. military could provide assistance and training to partnered navies, armies, and air forces. With the assurance of American presence and technical expertise, the armed forces of nations like Japan and South Korea would continue to benefit from long-standing partnerships while others like India, Australia, and Vietnam would gain confidence against Chinese intimidation.

A third opportunity for deterring Chinese aggression in the South China Sea centers on economic agreements and partnerships designed to incentivize coalition members. According to the U.S. Department of Defense’s Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy, America remains “committed to ensuring free and open maritime access to protect the stable economic order that has served all Asia-Pacific nations so well for so long.”[3] This interest could be furthered by lucrative trade deals with both established and emerging economies like Australia and India, in addition to numerous smaller states, to encourage meaningful participation. The current Association of Southeast Asian Nations, though historically lacking capacity to coerce, may provide a forum to both incentivize and counter Chinese economic behavior. Taking economic initiatives further, the U.S. could sponsor targeted loans and grants for emerging partnered economies from international financial institutions.

While increased trade with coalition members would prove strategically beneficial—with the U.S. military playing a significant role with its local purchasing power and mandate to protect sea and air lanes for commerce—continuing trade with China would be equally important for maintaining a peaceful equilibrium. Seeking to both accommodate and limit Chinese expansionist interests, America could use its massive imports from Chinese manufacturing as incentive and leverage to attain desirable behavior in the South China Sea. Should the world’s oldest nation choose volatile courses of action, the U.S. could simply shift vital economic relationships to other nations with massive and inexpensive labor reserves like India and Vietnam.

The final, and most pervasive, element of American power is informational capabilities. Similar to the role of information operations in U.S. Joint military doctrine, the broader, national ability to message, counter-message, network, and construct wining narratives ties together and empowers all other elements of national and international power. The U.S. military, in particular, possesses the world’s most robust and capable network of platforms and communications technologies. The American 7th Fleet, as the traditional lead force in the East Asia, enjoys vast communications potential with mobile platforms while the U.S. Army’s Pacific-oriented I Corps wields significant psychological means from land-based facilities to enable national messaging.

While the United States’ armed forces possess much of its means for networking, impactful narrative construction would have to be multi-faceted while synergizing cultural, economic, and diplomatic initiatives. Any attempt to deter Chinese aggression with trade partnerships and military coalitions would require a ‘comprehensive’ and ‘whole of government’ approaches with emphasis on unifying diverse means towards common ends. Even though informational superiority would be crucial for binding regional alliances under American leadership, it would also prove necessary in creating narratives to win global approval and potentially, if need be, internationally isolate the Chinese and North Korean position.

The ongoing contention over the South China Sea is a problem that must be addressed lest tensions rise and competing powers move to seize territorial primacy. While America seeks to avoid conflict and preserve stability in the region, it should form dynamic coalitions to limit Chinese aggrandizement of vital commerce lanes. Though economic cooperation could incentivize favorable regional behavior, expanded military partnerships would ensure, as promoted by the 19th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, preservation of the United States “as the security partner of choice for most nations in the region.”[4] As an important factor in the projection of national power—including diplomacy, force, economic strength, and informational superiority—the U.S. military would serve as a central implementing agent for coalition efforts. Though the United States desires commerce and peace in East Asia, it must achieve this equilibrium through a nuanced strategy of deterrence and accommodation.

End Notes

[1] National Security Strategy, February 2015, pg. 24.

[2] Admiral Harry Harris, Statement to Senate Armed Service Committee on Maritime Security Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region, September 17, 2015.

[3] The Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy: Achieving U.S. National Security Objectives in a Changing Environment, July 27, 2015, pg. 2.

[4] General Joseph F. Dunford to U.S. Senate Advanced, Questions for July 9, 2015 Confirmation Hearing.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...n-south-korea-u-s-diplomats-meet-month-tokyo/

Senior Japan, South Korea, U.S. diplomats to meet this month in Tokyo

Kyodo
Jan 4, 2016
Article history

Senior diplomats from Japan, South Korea and the United States plan to meet in Tokyo in the middle of this month to reaffirm trilateral security cooperation amid growing concerns over an increasingly assertive China and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, diplomatic sources said.

The diplomats are hoping to push for stronger ties by building on the momentum of the deal struck between Japan and South Korea last month to “finally and irreversibly” resolve the “comfort women” dispute, the sources said Monday.

Japan will be represented by Vice Foreign Minister Akitaka Saiki, the United States by Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and South Korea by Lim Sung-nam, first vice minister of foreign affairs, the sources said.

Both Japan and the United States are increasingly concerned about China’s recent step to land a plane on an airstrip it constructed in a contested part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China claims sovereignty over most of that sea and has overlapping territorial claims with the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Tokyo and Washington will urge Seoul to get onboard with them when it comes to China’s maritime forays, the sources said. South Korea has been hesitant to criticize China’s assertiveness.

Some people in Japan and South Korea have been critical of the landmark deal to settle the comfort women issue, which includes the Japanese government contributing to a fund to provide support for the women.

Washington, eager to see strong ties between Tokyo and Seoul, is expected to reiterate its support for the agreement in hopes the issue will not be raised again in the future, the sources said.

The diplomats plan to agree on the importance of working together to address North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

They are also likely to discuss the long-stalled issue of Japan and South Korea signing an agreement on sharing classified military, the sources said.

Tokyo and Seoul put off signing the agreement in 2012 due to opposition in South Korea.

Another issue that could be on the agenda is that of concluding an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) between the Self-Defense Forces and the South Korean military, which would enable reciprocal provision of supplies, the sources said.

The diplomats may discuss a proposal for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, South Korean President Park Geun-hye and U.S. President Barack Obama to hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit that starts March 31 in Washington, according to the sources.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com...aid=3013530&cloc=joongangdaily|home|newslist1

It is time to prepare for peace and unification

EDUCATION FOR UNIFICATION Special column
Jan 05,2016

Opportunity comes as the political situation fluctuates. From the South China Sea to the Korean Peninsula, East Asia is in turmoil as the United States and Japan clash with China in creating a new political order.

This power structure is only expected to become more complicated as Russia sets its sights on the Pacific. It seems there is no better time for Korea to prepare for peace and unification on the Korean Peninsula with the support of the world’s four major powers.

However, let’s ask ourselves, “Are we ready to take advantage of this opportunity?”

The answer is “no.”

Our diplomacy has yet to foster an environment in which the United States, China, Japan and Russia can support peace and unification without interests colliding.

One lesson we have to learn from German unification is that West Germany first secured support from neighboring countries, including the United States and the Soviet Union, and then it negotiated with the East.

During the unification process, Helmut Josef Michael Kohl, who served as chancellor of a reunified Germany, reiterated the necessity that European unity and the unification of Germany be carried out at the same time.

Political indifference makes the situation even more desperate. There is not a single lawmaker sincerely considering peace and unification with North Korea from the opposition party, much less a plan that can succeed the engagement policy on North Korea developed by former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.

The ruling party is no exception. Last May, a deplorable incident occurred in the National Assembly.

Sergey Naryshkin, the chairman of Russia’s State Duma, addressed the Assembly.

However, it was only attended by five officials, including National Assembly Speaker Chung Ui-hwa; Rep. Kim Han-gill, the chairman of the Korea-Russia Inter-Parliamentary Council; and Rep. Woo Yoon-keun, who studied in Russia.

Korean lawmakers are so ignorant about Russia’s rising influence on North Korea amid the estranged relationship between North Korea and China. Furthermore, Russia’s role in the unification process accounts for a fourth of the support by the four major powers.

What about our government? Paralyzed by “principle,” the government cannot make progress in high-level inter-Korean talks. It’s a matter of asking what we want, including regular family reunions, after boldly resuming the tourism program on Mount Kumgang, a prerequisite the North demands.

The reason why Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe conceded to Korea despite an expected backlash from the Japanese right wing is because he had a firm desire to persuade conservatives, his political support base.

The Korean public’s indifference about peace and unification is another reason why the government has succumbed to indolence and formalism. Basic education that explains why peace is essential, how unification can be achieved and how Germany persuaded its neighbors to agree to unification isn’t even a reality.

But security education is not the only thing that is important. Resolving insensitivity to security is also essential, but it has to be taught under the balance between peace and unification. If security is the only thing to be emphasized, peace and unification will be pushed to the wayside.

Otto von Bismarck once said that a “statesman cannot create anything himself. He must wait and listen until he hears the steps of God sounding through events, then leap up and grasp the hem of his garment.”

The government must improve the relationship with North Korea based on a practical stance, and civil society must prepare future generations for peace and unification through education. This is why the JoongAng Ilbo will start its 2016 Peace Odyssey.

The JoongAng Ilbo greets the new year with the determination that we will participate in providing humanitarian support to the North, and focus our effort and resources to spreading awareness about the importance of peace and unification to students and citizens.

BY KIM YOUNG-HIE [kim.sohee0905@joongang.co.kr]

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/afghanistans-successes-and-failures-in-2015/

Afghanistan’s Successes and Failures in 2015

2015 saw Afghanistan face several challenges, but the National Unity Government saw modest success as well.

By Aziz Amin Ahmadzai
January 04, 2016

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2015 was a year full of ups and downs for both the Afghan people and their government, and, by the same token, for the international community and the region as a whole. The rise and expansion of security threats in the form of the Islamic State, the growing insecurity in northern Afghanistan, the fall of Kunduz into the hands of Taliban, and the exodus of Afghans into Europe are marked failures. On the other hand, the kicking off of the TAPI Project, accession of Afghanistan into the WTO, the development work of Salma Dam, and building regional consensus by involving regional and global players in the Afghan conflict are recorded as successes by the National Unity Government of Afghanistan.

The Failures of 2015: From Security to Brain-Drain

The Taliban’s fragmentation

After news of the death of the Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar was leaked by Afghan intelligence, the Taliban divided into two groups, with one led by Mullah Akhtar Mansour and the other by Mullah Mohammad Rassoul. The Afghan government failed to make use of the initial internal division to gain the upper hand. Of course, whether it was possible to gain an advantage is debatable because of the security gaps and internal fragmentation in the National Unity Government itself. Moreover, the rise of the Islamic State is, in part, a product of the Taliban fragmentation.

The fall of Kunduz

The fall of Kunduz and the Taliban’s brief control thereof was significant for two reasons. First, it demonstrated that the Taliban is far stronger and more organized than before and has the ability to challenge the writ of the government. Secondly, the fall of Kunduz highlighted not only the significant gaps in the government’s security institutions, but also how those gaps are exacerbated by internal problems and disagreements plaguing the National Unity Government.

Failing to form a consensus

The Afghan National Unity Government’s internal issues are most reflected in its inability to form a consensus over appointing key candidates for security posts, such as the defense minister, and on key policy endeavors. A critical policy endeavor such as the signing of an intelligence agreement between the Afghan National Directory of Security (NDS) and the Pakistani intelligence agency (ISI) was sabotaged in part by internal fragmentation.

The rise of the Islamic State

Further confounding the security problems in 2015 was the rise of the Islamic State in the eastern and southern parts of Afghanistan, which are traditionally Taliban stronghold areas. The Islamic State is likely to continue gaining ground in the absence of solutions for these security failures, the continued fragmentation of both the Taliban and the National Unity Government, and a failure to bring about peace and reconciliation.

Migration and the resultant brain-drain

While the deteriorating security situation and the increase in violence are driving factors in the recent uptick in numbers of Afghans fleeing the country, it is not the only cause leading to their exodus. The stagnant economy and a lack of employment opportunities are also leading factors. Leaving Afghanistan is no guarantee of prosperity for those fleeing in the long term. With the support of the young and the people across the divide, the National Unity Government can pursue a balanced approached to both development and security — it must be able to pursue a path of sustainable security.

The Gains of 2015: From Awareness to Action

One of the major achievements of the NUG government was bringing to light the predicament the country is facing and pursuing a regional approach to help facilitate peace and stability. Regional actors have a stake in stability in Afghanistan. President Ashraf Ghani and the National Unity Government tirelessly strove to drive that point home to not only the people of Afghanistan, but to leaders across the region.

Ghani partnered with regional actors to bring about much needed improvements in Afghanistan’s infrastructure. For example, the NUG signed an agreement with India to facilitate the development of the Salma Dam, located in the southwestern province of Herat, to produce electricity and to help with the irrigation of the land of local farmers. Infrastructure development and projects in rural areas have been seriously neglected in the past.

Enabling future infrastructure development was another success last year. In particular, the inauguration of the TAPI (Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India) pipeline stands out. The pipeline will transfer energy to the energy-hungry states of Pakistan and India via Afghanistan. It will also have salutary benefits for Afghanistan by enabling it to meets its own energy demands while simultaneously generating income, investment, and development in other sectors of the Afghan economy.

Finally, Ghani successfully convinced China and Central Asian states to play an active role in bringing peace and stability. He also sought to mend ties with Pakistan, an initiative which the United States, China, and Russia have supported.

As 2016 begins, Afghans far and near should ponder their dreams. The dreams of each and every Afghan, from those who are old to those who have yet to be born, are tied to the decisions made today and the actions taken tomorrow. Afghans will not be able to grow as individuals, as a people, and as a nation without looking to the past — without contemplating both the successes and failures of those who came before — and without committing to working together for the future.

Aziz Amin Ahmadzai writes on political, security and social issues of South Asia, West and Central Asia. He is based in Kabul and tweets at@azizamin786.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/attack-near-kabul-airport-targets-u-s-convoy-n489816

News
Jan 4 2016, 12:05 pm ET

Attack Near Kabul Airport Targets U.S. Convoy

by Fazul Rahim and Sarah Burke

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN — The Taliban has claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack on a compound for civilian contractors near the Kabul airport on Monday, a senior security official said, hours after another suicide bomber blew himself up.

A convoy of U.S. embassy guards who live at Camp Sullivan was targeted in the second attack, the official said, but none of the guards were injured. The Ministry of Public Health said 19 civilians in the area were injured and taken to various hospitals, but there were no indications they are Americans.

The official added that the attacker missed the convoy and detonated the explosives at the gate that leads to Camp Sullivan, a residential compound for civilian contractors attached to Camp Baron.

"The car bomb detonated at the gate of Camp Baron on the military side of Kabul airport," a spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior Sediq Sediqqi confirmed.

The explosion was the second in the same area on the same day. On Monday morning, a suicide car bomb exploded at a police checkpoint after the driver refused to stop. No one was injured in that attack.

Overnight, insurgents battled with Afghan forces near the Indian consulate in the northern town of Mazar-e-Sharif. Three civilians were injured in the attacks, the Balkh province police chief told NBC News. The operation to contain the insurgents lasted through the night and into Monday morning.

Afghanistan has had a tense and violent start to the new year, as talks to revive the peace process loom next week. The winter in Afghanistan usually sees a lull in insurgent violence.

On Friday, a suicide bomber attacked a French restaurant popular with foreigners in Kabul, killing two people and injuring 18 others.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-security-israel-idUSKBN0UI1C320160104

World | Mon Jan 4, 2016 1:19pm EST
Related: World, Syria, Israel

Hezbollah targets Israeli forces with bomb, Israel shells south Lebanon

BEIRUT | By John Davison and Suleiman Al-Khalidi


Hezbollah set off a bomb targeting Israeli forces at the Lebanese border on Monday in an apparent response to the killing in Syria last month of a prominent commander, triggering Israeli shelling of southern Lebanon.

Israel has struck its Iran-backed Shi'ite enemy Hezbollah in Syria several times, killing a number of fighters and destroying weapons it believes were destined for the group, whose support for President Bashar al-Assad has been crucial in the country's civil war.

Israel's army said Monday's blast, targeting military vehicles in the Shebaa farms area, prompted Israeli forces to respond with artillery fire. It made no mention of casualties.

Hezbollah said in a statement that the explosive device had been detonated in the Shebaa farms area and carried out by a group whom it named after Samir Qantar, a commander killed in December. The group has accused Israel of killing Qantar in an air strike in Syria, and vowed to retaliate.

The U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, urged both sides to avoid an escalation, saying it had stepped up patrols on the ground after the incident.

In a statement, head of mission Major-General Luciano Portolano urged both sides "to exercise utmost restraint against any provocation."

Lebanese media said Israeli shelling had hit the nearby town of Al Wazzani and other areas, with reports of material damage but no serious injuries.

Witnesses said at least 10 Israeli shells had hit Al Wazzani shortly after the blast.

A Reuters witness said the shelling had stopped later in the day. Al Manar TV reported that calm had returned to the Shebaa area.

An Israeli air strike killed Qantar on Dec. 20 in Damascus, Hezbollah said. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said a week later that retaliation would be inevitable.

Israel stopped short of confirming responsibility for the strike that killed Qantar, but welcomed the death of the militant leader, who had been jailed in Israel in 1979 and repatriated to Lebanon in a 2008 prisoner swap.

Hezbollah did not say which role Qantar played in the Syrian conflict, but Syrian state media said he was involved in a major offensive earlier this year in Quneitra, near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Hezbollah is fighting on the side of Assad in Syria's civil war. The conflict has exacted a heavy toll on Hezbollah, with many hundreds of its fighters killed.

In January last year, an Israeli helicopter attack killed six Hezbollah members including a commander and the son of the group's late military commander Imad Moughniyah. An Iranian general was also killed in that attack.

Two Israeli soldiers and a Spanish peacekeeper were killed later that month in one of the most violent clashes between the two sides since a 2006 war.

Israel and Hezbollah have avoided large scale confrontation along their 80-km (50-mile) frontier since the 34-day war in 2006, which killed 120 people in Israel and more than 500 in Lebanon.

Nasrallah has made repeated threats against Israel since then, part of what is seen as a calibrated policy of deterrence.


(Additional reporting by Tom Perry and Laila Bassam; Ori Lewis in Jerusalem; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://atimes.com/2016/01/turkey-nato-and-risk-of-nuclear-escalation-with-russia/

Turkey, NATO, and risk of nuclear escalation with Russia

By Christina Lin on January 4, 2016 in China, Middle East, AT Opinion

On Sunday, Nov. 7, Californians watched the US Navy’s nuclear-capable Trident II (D5) ballistic missile move across the sky in Los Angeles.[1]

Image of Trident missile over Los Angeles
A Trident missile shown from the Fourth Street bridge over 110 Freeway in Los Angeles. Photographer: Preston Newman, www.PrestonNewman.com

It was the first of two tests that coincided with tough talk from US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter on how Russia and China threatened the world order, and days earlier he had been aboard an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea to send a robust message to China regarding the disputed region.[2]

Addressing Reagan National Defence Forum in California that same day, Mr. Carter warned: “We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot, war with Russia. We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake, the United States will defend our interests, our allies, the principled international order, and the positive future it affords us all.”

The tension is heightened with the US National Security Archive’s Dec. 22 publication of declassified Cold War documents on a nuclear attack against Russia and China.[3]

NATO’s “Trident Juncture” war games and launching of Trident missile

Just the previous day before launching the Trident missile, on Nov. 6 NATO also concluded its largest military exercise in 13 years called “Trident Juncture,” with 36,000 troops, over 140 aircraft, 60 ships and 7 submarines to defend against perceived Russian aggression.[4]

Shortly thereafter on Nov. 24, Turkey shot down Russian warplanes for violating its airspace in hot pursuit of Syrian jihadists, and got NATO to rally behind Ankara with a new air defense package against Russia.

Alarmed by US military escalation against Russia over Syria rather than focusing on fighting Al Qaeda affiliates and ISIS, US Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) in the House Armed Services Committee issued a stark warning to Defense Secretary Carter that Obama’s policies could trigger a devastating nuclear war with Russia.[5]

Gabbard said she could “only presume” that President Obama’s decision to send American fighter jets to the Turkey-Syrian border was to “target Russian planes” since ISIS does not have an air force. With US backing Turkey’s position of removing Assad and preventing the linking of Kurdish cantons Afrin and Kobane via Aleppo, she warned that US and Russia’s “diametrically opposed objectives” with air strikes in Syria could create a “strong potential” for a head-to-head military conflict escalating to a nuclear war.

Gabbard told Carter that “Russia’s installation of their anti-aircraft missile-defense system increases that possibility of — whether it’s intentional or even an accidental event — where one side may shoot down the other side’s plane.” She ended with these sobering words: “And that’s really where the potential is for this devastating nuclear war — for something that could blow up into something much larger.”

Others share her concern. On Dec. 18 Leslie Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, retired Lieutenant General Robert Gard, chairman emeritus of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, and retired Brigadier General John H. Johns, professor emeritus from US National Defense University penned an article in Foreign Policy calling for US-Russia cooperation to de-escalate current tensions and diffuse the increasing worrisome nuclear blustering.[6]

In the article the authors exhorted both Washington and Moscow are civilisations with shared interest in fighting the nihilistic ISIS, and joined US allies such as France urging a coalition of the willing that requires Moscow and Washington to overcome their “sometimes diverging interests” to forge a broader and stronger anti-ISIS coalition.

Citing cooperation in the Iran nuclear deal as a template for Syria, they urged the Obama administration to stop obsessing over the fate of one man Assad, and rebuked the US for blocking a UN vote on a practical Russian resolution to work with Assad in the short-term to end the Syrian conflict.

“This action is foolish, since working with Assad, at least in the short term, provides a more realistic roadmap for mitigating the conflict in Syria and rooting out ISIS.”

They further condemned US obsession with regime change of autocracies they dislike (as opposed to Wahhabi Saudi and Qatari autocracies US likes). “In the past, Washington has tried to sideline dictators like Assad, Muammar al Qaddafi in Libya, and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. We have advocated democratic norms and human rights in those countries. The results: increased chaos and destruction, rather than a shift to the norms and aspirations for a democratic revolution.”

In addition to chaos and destruction is the real risk of a devastating nuclear war between US and Russia. Recently there has been a barrage of articles from Reuters, Politico, National Interest and others warning of the increasing risk of nuclear exchanges between Moscow and Washington, especially over Syria in the aftermath of NATO member Turkey downing the Russian plane.[7]

Turkey-Russia spat becomes NATO-Russia nuclear war?

Pavel Felgenhauer, a leading Russian military analyst assessed that a nuclear war over continued Turkey/NATO-Russia standoff is “very likely.”

Given Putin sees NATO backing Turkey that he deems “accomplices of terrorists”, especially supporting Chechen jihadists in its Army of Conquest (Jaysh al Fateh), the risk increases for Turkey-Russia spat to draw in US/NATO into a nuclear exchange.

Bruce Blair, former “Minuteman”[8] and nuclear-missile launch officer, penned an article in Politico on Nov. 27 entitled “Could US-Russia Tensions Go Nuclear?” warning of this danger.

He stated that Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane “fits a pattern of brinkmanship and inadvertence that is raising tensions and distrust between Russia and US-led NATO,” and that “this escalation could morph by design or inadvertence into a nuclear threat.”[9]

Given US and Russian nuclear warheads are still on hair-trigger alert with only a few minutes to discern whether an attack is real or a false alarm before reacting, the build up of distrust that is egged on by Erdogan’s hostility towards Putin risks miscalculations, misinterpretations, and escalation to a nuclear dimension.

Indeed on Jan. 25, 1995, the US and Russia came close to a nuclear war when Moscow believed US launched a Trident missile towards Russia.

That day Norway launched a Black Brant rocket to study the aurora borealis, but the news never reached the proper Russian authorities.[10] Since the Brant is a large, four-stage rocket with similar flight characteristics of the Trident, Russian President Boris Yeltsin activated his “nuclear football” and retrieved launch codes for a retaliatory launch.

Fortunately after Russian early warning satellites confirmed US missile fields did not show any additional launches, the Russian leaders realized it was a false alarm and called off the counterattack.

Nonetheless, what is worrisome is that this was not an isolated incident, and there have been various other nuclear close calls including one involving NATO.

In 1983 NATO conducted Operation Able Archer involving 40,000 troops similar to the recent Trident Juncture exercise with 36,000 troops, and the operation was so realistic that Kremlin, believing it was a prelude to a nuclear strike on Russian territory, gave instructions for a dozen aircrafts in East Germany and Poland to be fitted with nuclear weapons.[11]

Soviet submarines armed with nuclear missiles were also sent under the Arctic ice to avoid detection with some 70 SS-29 missiles placed on heightened alert, and this reaction so alarmed Margaret Thatcher that she ordered her officials to “consider what could be done to remove the danger that, by miscalculating western intentions, the Soviet Union would over-react.”

Hence as Blair argued, the current danger lays in misperception and miscalculation in a state of heightened distrust between US-led NATO and Russia, fueled by NATO member Turkey’s clash with Putin over Syria’s Assad rather than cooperating in the fight against ISIS and other Islamic extremists groups.

Fortunately, the recent NATO Trident Juncture war games and launching of the Trident missile did not inadvertently escalate to a nuclear dimension. However, without taking steps to de-escalate current tensions especially between Erdogan’s Turkey and Russia, the danger remains.

[1] http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-second-missile-launch-pentagon-20151109-story.html ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc0_wZat4nI; https://vimeo.com/145029572

[2] http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...elihood-of-nuclear-war-in-the-next-20-years/; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ts-and-allies-against-Russian-aggression.html

[3] Michael Peck, “America’s Cold War Master Plan to Nuke Russia”, The National Interest, 23 December 2015, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-cold-war-master-plan-nuke-russia-14714

[4] http://www.businessinsider.com/trident-juncture-2015-10

[5] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tulsi-gabbard-nuclear-war_56607e73e4b08e945fee6015

[6] http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/18/russia-putin-lavrov-obama-syria-ukraine-isis/

[7] Peter Apps, “Is the risk of nuclear war rising?” Reuters, December 20, 2015, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...elihood-of-nuclear-war-in-the-next-20-years/; Bruce Blair, “Could U.S.-Russia Tensions Go Nuclear?”, Politico, November 27, 2015, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/russia-us-tensions-nuclear-cold-war-213395; Polina Tikhonova, “Nuclear War Over Turkey Shooting Down Russian Jet Likely—Russia’s Top Defense Analyst”, Value Walk, November 26, 2015, http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/russia-vs-turkey-nuclear-war-likely/; http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-cold-war-master-plan-nuke-russia-14714

[8] Nuclear missile launch officers are called Minuteman because hair-trigger alert system only allows a decision for launch orders within minutes—in the US it is 1 minute.

[9] http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/russia-us-tensions-nuclear-cold-war-213395;

[10] http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/04/Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons.pdf; http://www.businessinsider.com/the-...ar-than-it-was-during-this-1995-event-2012-8;

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/military/nuclear-false-alarms.html

[11] http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/02/nato-war-game-nuclear-disaster; https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html

The opinions expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the view of Asia Times.

Copyright 2015 Asia Times Holdings Limited, a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://atimes.com/2016/01/saudi-arabia-in-policy-hell/

Home › David P. Goldman › Saudi Arabia stews in policy hell: Spengler

Saudi Arabia stews in policy hell: Spengler

By David P. Goldman on January 3, 2016 in David P. Goldman, Spengler, China, Middle East, AT Top Writers

Last week’s mass executions in Saudi Arabia suggest panic at the highest level of the monarchy. The action is without precedent, even by the grim standards of Saudi repression. In 1980 Riyadh killed 63 jihadists who had attacked the Grand Mosque of Mecca, but that was fresh after the event. Most of the 47 prisoners shot and beheaded on Jan. 2 had sat in Saudi jails for a decade. The decision to kill the prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, the most prominent spokesman for restive Saudi Shia Muslims in Eastern Province, betrays fear of subversion with Iranian sponsorship.

Why kill them all now? It is very hard to evaluate the scale of internal threats to the Saudi monarchy, but the broader context for its concern is clear: Saudi Arabia finds itself isolated, abandoned by its longstanding American ally, at odds with China, and pressured by Russia’s sudden preeminence in the region. The Saudi-backed Army of Conquest in Syria seems to be crumbling under Russian attack. The Saudi intervention in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthi rebels has gone poorly. And its Turkish ally-of-convenience is consumed by a low-level civil war. Nothing has gone right for Riyadh.

Worst of all, the collapse of Saudi oil revenues threatens to exhaust the kingdom’s $700 billion in financial reserves within five years, according to an October estimate by the International Monetary Fund (as I discussed here). The House of Saud relies on subsidies to buy the loyalty of the vast majority of its subjects, and its reduced spending power is the biggest threat to its rule. Last week Riyadh cut subsidies for water, electricity and gasoline. The timing of the executions may be more than coincidence: the royal family’s capacity to buy popular support is eroding just as its regional security policy has fallen apart.

For decades, Riyadh has presented itself as an ally of the West and a force for stability in the region, while providing financial support for Wahhabi fundamentalism around the world. China has been the kingdom’s largest customer as well as a provider of sophisticated weapons, including surface-to-surface missiles. But China also has lost patience with the monarchy’s support for Wahhabi Islamists in China and bordering countries.

According to a senior Chinese analyst, the Saudis are the main source of funding for Islamist madrassas in Western China, where the “East Turkistan Independence Movement” has launched several large-scale terror attacks. Although the Saudi government has reassured Beijing that it does not support the homegrown terrorists, it either can’t or won’t stop some members of the royal family from channeling funds to the local jihadis through informal financial channels. “Our biggest worry in the Middle East isn’t oil—it’s Saudi Arabia,” the analyst said.

China’s Muslims—mainly Uyghurs in Western China who speak a Turkish dialect—are Sunni rather than Shia. Like Russia, China does not have to worry about Iranian agitation among Shia jihadis, and tends to prefer Iran to the Sunni powers. As a matter of form, Beijing wants to appear even-handed in its dealings with Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example in recent contacts between their respective navies. Chinese analysts emphasize that Beijing has sold weapons to both—more in absolute to terms to Iran but more sophisticated weapons to the Saudis.

More pertinent than public diplomacy, though, is where China is buying its oil.

Nonetheless, China’s oil import data show a significant shift away from Saudi Arabia towards Russia and Oman (which China considers part of the Iranian sphere of influence). Russia’s oil exports to China have grown fourfold since 2010 while Saudi exports have stagnated. Given the world oil glut, China can pick and choose its suppliers, and it is hard to avoid the inference that Beijing is buying more from Russia for strategic reasons. According to Russian sources, China also has allowed Russian oil companies to delay physical delivery of oil due under existing contracts, permitting Russia to sell the oil on the open market for cash—the equivalent of a cash loan to Russia.

China’s interests in Syria coincide with Russia’s. Both have reason to fear the growth of ISIS as a magnet for their own jihadis. Thousands of Chinese Uyghurs make their way into Southeast Asia via the porous southern border of Yunnan province, with financial assistance from Saudi supporters and logistical support—including passports—from local Turkish consulates. Chinese Uyghurs were implicated in the bombing of Bangkok’s Erawan Temple last August, and have linked up with ISIS supporters as far south as Indonesia. Turkey reported last month that most jihadists crossing its border into Syria to join ISIS are Chinese Muslims.

With Kurdish and allied forces gaining control of Syria’s border with Turkey, aided by Russian air support, Chinese Uyghurs may lose access to Syria. Late in December Kurdish forces crossed to the western bank of the Euphrates River and are in position to link up with Kurdish militias in northwestern Syria, eliminating Turkish hopes of a “safe zone” controlled by Turkey on the southern side of the Syrian border. For its part, Turkey risks paralysis from a low-intensity civil war with its Kurdish population. The Kurdish-majority southeast of the country is under siege and fighting has spread to Turkey’s western provinces.

It’s an ill wind that blows nobody good, and China seems hopeful that it has contained its jihadist problem. On New Year’s Day, the Communist Party leader in China’s Xinjiang province declared that “the atmosphere for religious extremism has weakened markedly.”

China is extremely reluctant to commit military forces to overseas conflicts, and its military is ill-prepared to do so even if Beijing were to change its mind. The People’s Liberation Army lacks ground attack aircraft like the two squadrons of Russian Su-24 and Su-25 deployed in Syria. Nonetheless, Beijing is happy that Russia is reducing ISIS forces in Syria as well as Saudi- and Turkish-backed Sunni Islamists like the Army of Conquest.

It will be hard to evaluate the success of Russian bombing in Syria until the dust settles, but there is a great deal of dust in the air. According to Israeli sources, Russia is dumping vast amounts of its Cold War inventory of dumb bombs on Syrian Sunnis with devastating effect. The Russian bombing campaign makes up in volume what it lacks in sophistication, killing far more civilians than Western militaries would tolerate, but changing the situation on the ground. That explains Russian President Vladimir Putin’s newfound popularity among world leaders. He is doing their dirty work.

Saudi Arabia’s proxies in Syria are in trouble. Early in 2015, the Army of Conquest (Jaish al-Fateh), a coalition of al-Qaida and other Sunni Islamists backed by the Saudis, Turks and Qataris, had driven the Syrian army out of several key positions in Northwest Syria, threatening the Assad regime’s core Alawite heartland. The coalition began breaking up in November, however, and the Syrian Army recently retook several villages it had lost to the Army of Conquest. One of the Army of Conquest’s constituent militias, Failaq al-Sham, announced Jan. 3 that it was leaving the coalition to defend Aleppo against regime forces reinforced by Russia.

Everything seems to have gone wrong at once for Riyadh. The only consolation the monarchy has under the circumstances is that its nemesis Iran also is suffering from the collapse of oil revenues and the attrition of war. Iran began withdrawing its Revolutionary Guard forces from Syria in December, largely due to high casualties. The high cost of maintaining the war effort as Iran’s finances implode also may have been a factor. Iran’s Lebanese Shia proxy, Hezbollah, has suffered extremely high casualties, virtually neutralizing its whole first echelon of combat troops. And Russia has shown no interest in interfering with Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah.

The oil price collapse turns the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran into a race to the bottom. But the monarchy’s panicked response to its many setbacks of the past several months raises a difficult question. In the past, the West did what it could to prop up the Saudi royal family as a pillar of stability in the region, despite the Saudis’ support for jihadi terrorism. Soon the West may not be able to keep the House of Saud in power whether it wants to or not.

The opinions expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the view of Asia Times.

Copyright 2015 Asia Times Holdings Limited, a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved.

 

[Housecarl]

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Ret. Gen. Zinni: Saudi, Iran Tensions Could Stir Up Hot War, Distraction from ISIS

By Julia Limitone
·Published January 04, 2016
·FOXBusiness

During an interview with the FOX Business Networks Sandra Smith, retired Unites States Marine Corps General and former Commander in Chief of U.S. Central Command Anthony Zinni explained why he is concerned about Saudi Arabia cutting ties with Iran.

“If this were to escalate in any major way, we have the potential for a hot war between Iran and Saudi Arabia which could close the Gulf, obviously the access to energy freedom and navigation. The implications for us… much like the old Iran-Iraq war in the 80’s could be, I think, deeply concerning for those who worry about the economy and stability in the region.” he said.

He also argued it could potentially cause a distraction from ISIS.

“The Saudis are deeply concerned about what’s going on in Yemen. The Houthis and the opposition are supported by Iran. They will have internal problems because their Eastern provinces and Bahrain and other places have major Shiite populations that are demonstrating now and obviously that unrest could cause internal problems,” he said.

When it comes to defeating ISIS, Zinni said the U.S could "crush them in a short period" if the White House made a commitment that matched actions on the ground.


“If we were really about defeat, we would mobilize NATO… Article 5 would be invoked and we would take stronger action. Even to the commitment of ground forces -- we would put pressure and give support to this new coalition that the Saudis are putting together for them to get more involved, and I think with our participation and our support they would… This would match what’s going on in Iraq now where the Iraqi military, along with the Kurds, are finally beginning to show some strength.”