Part 3
Updates on Key States’ Activities:
Russia
Russia sent a “humanitarian aid” convoy to Donetsk on November 25. The convoy arrived in the DNR on November 25 and is Russia’s 104th so-called humanitarian aid convoy to Donbas to-date.[29] Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry claimed the convoy caried more than 92 tons of medicine and medical equipment.[30] This convoy likely carried weapons and ammunition given documented past Russian weapon shipments to Donbas under the guise of “humanitarian aid convoys.”
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom and Ukraine signed a 1.7-billion-pound loan agreement for the development of the Ukrainian navy on November 12. The deal stipulates that the UK will transfer two decommissioned UK Royal Navy minehunters to Ukraine, jointly produce eight missile ships, deliver and retrofit weapons systems to existing Ukrainian vessels, produce a Ukrainian frigate, and provide technical support for building Ukrainian naval infrastructure.[31]
The UK announced it established a security force assistance brigade and a NATO holding area in Germany on November 25. The brigade has tanks and drone elements.[32] UK Lieutenant General Ralph Wooddisse stated, “we are putting a substantial number of armored vehicles forward in order to be able to move more quickly should they be required anywhere on the continental [European] landmass.”[33] This is a reversal of the UK’s 2020 permanent force presence withdrawal from Germany in late 2020.[34] – GB: Perhaps the “why now” is connected to an overall weaker European force posture that shaped up well for the Kremlin in 2021.
United States
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met with Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksii Reznikov in Washington on November 18. The two officials agreed to work closely together to advance the shared priorities outlined in the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Defense Framework signed on August 31.[35] Austin stated interest in deepening cooperation in Black Sea security, cyber defense, and intelligence sharing.
The US imposed new sanctions against Nord Stream 2 on November 22. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the Department of State submitted to Congress a list with two vessels and one Russia-linked entity involved in the pipeline to be sanctioned.[36]
The Biden Administration is reportedly considering sending military advisors and weapons to Ukraine. CNN reported on November 22 that the Biden Administration is considering sending Ukraine US military advisers and weapons (Javelins, stingers, Mi-17 helicopters, and mortars).[37]
Ukraine’s navy received two refurbished former US Coast Guard patrol boats on November 23.[38]
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov and US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley had a phone call on November 23. TASS reports that Russian Ministry of Defense stated they “discussed topical issues of international security.”[39] The Joint Chiefs of Staff readout states they discussed “several security-related issues of concern.” This was likely on Ukraine given Milley had a phone call with the Commander of Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny on November 22.[40]
US Sixth Fleet announced that the USS “Arleigh Burke” guided missile destroyer began deploying to the Black Sea “to operate with NATO allies and partners in the region” on November 25.[41] Missile ship “Shuya” of the Black Sea Fleet conducted an exercise in response to the announcement of “Arleigh Burke’s” deployment on November 26.[42]
France and Germany
French, German, and Ukrainian foreign ministers had a working meeting in Brussels on November 15. France and Germany issued a joint statement in support of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.[43] France and Germany called on Ukraine to implement the Minsk Accords and expressed regret that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has refused to meet at the ministerial level for a Normandy Format meeting.
Germany temporarily suspended Nord Stream 2’s certification on November 16. Germany's energy regulator reportedly suspended the process because a Swiss-based consortium behind Nord Stream 2 reportedly first needed to form a German subsidiary company under German law to secure an operating license.[44] German regulators stated they would not resume the approval process until the Nord Stream 2 company, which is registered in Switzerland, transfers its main assets and staffing budget to its German subsidiary.[45]
French officials issued forceful statements against a Russian offensive in Ukraine in November. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov attended the Russian-French Security Cooperation Council meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Defense Minister Florence Parly in Paris, France, on November 12.[46] The Russian and French ministers reiterated the necessity of compliance with the Minsk Agreements. The ministers discussed nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, prevention of an arms race in outer space, Russia-EU and Russia-NATO relations, and other topics. Le Drian and Parly warned the Kremlin of “serious consequences related to any new harm to Ukraine’s territorial integrity” in a joint French ministers’ statement.[47] Le Drian gave an interview on November 21 in which he reiterated that “Any [Russian] violation of the [Ukrainian] border, any intrusion would lead to extremely grave consequences.”[48]
Ukraine Political Activity
Zelensky had a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the Russian buildup on November 25. They agreed to coordinate international community efforts on Russian threats and preserving sanctions policy.[49] They also discussed the migration crisis on the border with Belarus and Poland.
Zelensky had a telephone conversation with the President of the European Council Charles Michel on November 25. They agreed to coordinate efforts and discussed the Russian buildup.[50] Michel discussed the results of his call with Putin from November 24.[51] Michel said that de-escalation of the situation could be helped by contacts between the Ukrainian and Russian sides with the participation of the EU.
Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov (former Party of Regions funder, Viktor Yanukovych partner, and alleged Donetsk mafia boss) of planning a coup on December 1 or 2 in a carefully orchestrated press conference on November 26. Zelensky’s quote: “we received information that on the first day there will be a coup d'etat in our state. December 1-2... This is not only intelligence information, but also sound information, or representatives of Ukraine, let's say, with representatives of Russia, let's say, are discussing Rinat Akhmetov’s participation in the coup in Ukraine, which will attract a billion dollars, etc. I believe that this is a setup, an insult for Akhmetov, he is being drawn into a war against state of Ukraine. I think that he started it, I think that it would be his big mistake, because you cannot fight against your people and the president they have elected. I believe that it is his environment that involves him in such a war period... I am very calm about this, I think he may not know about it. Or know. I invite Rinat Akhmetov to Bankova (the Ukrainian presidential administration building) to listen to information that can be shared. Or the relevant authorities…”[52] Zelensky did not present any evidence to support of these claims. Zelensky also stated that Ukraine has received assurances from allies - the United States, Canada, UK, the EU, Turkey - that they will support Ukraine in the event of an escalation.[53]
Ukrainian defense officials continue to issue contradictory statements about a Russian offensive. Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov contradicted Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kirill Budanov’s claims of a Russian offensive around mid-January on November 25.[54] Danilov stated, “Today we do not see the threats that Mr. Budanov is talking about for January 15.” Danilov characterized Russian threats against Ukraine as not new, and that Ukraine is ready to respond.
Ukrainian Force Deployments
Ukraine launched a new operation to reinforce the Ukrainian-Belarusian border on November 24. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service announced a new special operation on the border with Belarus called “Poissya” with Ukrainian border guards, national police, national guard, Ukrainian Army, and “other reserves” to counteract illegal migrant risks on November 24.[55] Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastyrskiy announced on November 11 that Ukraine would reinforce the border with Belarus with 3,000 border guards, 3,500 national guardsmen, and 2,000 national police.[56] Ukraine has not openly deployed military units to the Belarusian border or elsewhere as of November 24.
Ukraine used Javelins for the first time in training exercises in Zaporizhia. Ukraine’s General Staff Stated on November 23 that Ukraine used Javelins in training exercises at the Shiroky Lan Training Ground, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine.[57] Ukrainian forces also exercised with Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones at this exercise. Ukraine has not used the Javelin in combat operations yet.
The OSCE observed a likely Ukrainian electronic warfare system near Donbas for the first time on November 23. The OSCE reports that they spotted a “probable” Ukrainian Khortytsia-M electronic warfare (EW) system about 5 kilometers from the front line, east of Mariupol.[58] This is the first sighting of the Ukrainian EW system near the front.
Belarus
Russian elements’ presence in Belarusian exercises will likely further expand in 2022. Chief of the Belarusian General Staff Viktor Gulevich stated on November 23 that the Belarusian MoD “significantly adjusted” the training process of the Belarusian Armed Forces in 2021-2022 after “taking into account the difficult military-political situation created by Western countries” in regard to the migrant crisis. Gulevich stated, “We are forced to respond to the intensification of military activity along the outer contour of the State Border of the Republic of Belarus.” Gulevich accused a “belt of unfriendly states” surrounding Belarus like an “anaconda.”
Russia and Belarus decided to increase the quantity of combined Russian-Belarusian air patrols in Belarusian airspace on November 25. The Belarusian MoD stated that it made the decision to increase joint patrols due to an increase in foreign aviation around Belarus’ border – a reference to claimed NATO flights near Belarus. A combined Russian-Belarusian tactical group of Su-30SM conducted a flight patrol along the Belarusian border on November 25.[59]
The Belarusian MoD continued to accuse Poland and Lithuania of deploying forces closer to Belarus on November 26. The Belarusian Head of the Main Directorate of Ideological Work of the Ministry of Defense on November 26 stated, “Unfortunately, we cannot note any positive steps taken by our neighbors [regarding alleged Polish and Baltic military deployments near Belarus]. Along with the previously announced unfriendly steps to deploy troops and infrastructure, which make it possible to significantly increase the combat strength and create groupings in a short time, we note the further actions of our neighbors aimed at escalating the situation.”[60] The official claimed that Lithuania concentrated approximately 4,000 troops and criticized Ukraine’s new “Poissya” border security operation. The Belarusian MoD stated it is prepared to quickly create its own force groupings if necessary.
Strategic Calendar:
November – December: Waterways near the Pinsk Marshes freeze.[61] Some bogs in Russia do not ever freeze.[62] Generally, freezing of Russian bog massifs usually begins about two weeks after the stable transition of air temperature through 0 degrees Celsius to negative values.[63] Pinsk historically gets to around this condition in late December through February.[64] Russian geographic information indicates that traversing the Pinsk Marshes, even in winter, is dangerous; the ice is thin in many spots and even experienced adventures who traverse it on foot can fall through and drown.[65] It’s unclear how traversable the marshes actually are for mechanized forces, even in best winter conditions.
December 1: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers an address to the Verkhovna Rada on the “internal and external situation in Ukraine.”[66]
December 6: Likely new German Cabinet.[67]
December 23: Tentative date for a Putin end-of-year address.[68]
January 15 – February 15: Freeze in Ukraine that Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) is forecasting the Russians will plan maneuvers around. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council contradicts GUR’s claims and does not see these dates as particularly significant as of November 25.[69]
Late March- Mid April: Rasputitsa – the Russian mud season in which dirt roads become untraversable due to spring thawing. Rasputitsa varies by region and local climate factors.
End of Part 3