naegling62
Veteran Member
UK scientists: "Resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine."
Hopes that life may soon be back to normal were dashed by Boris Johnson this week when he indicated that restrictions would remain in place to prevent a deadly third coronavirus wave. Predictably, the announcement relied on unduly pessimistic modeling, which suggested a full release from...
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UK scientists: “Resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine.”
Hopes that life may soon be back to normal were dashed by Boris Johnson this week when he indicated that restrictions would remain in place to prevent a deadly third coronavirus wave.
Predictably, the announcement relied on unduly pessimistic modeling, which suggested a full release from lockdown in June could trigger a new wave of hospital admissions every bit as bad as the January peak and result in up to 59,900 deaths.
Now, buried down below in the article by the Telegraph:
32. The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.
Who becomes seriously ill in a resurgence?
55. Figure 11 illustrates the age and vaccination status of those hospitalised (left) and dying (rig t) over time in Warwi ’s entral s enario for t e w ole Roadmap (equivalent to igure 4). The top plots are absolute numbers and the bottom plots are as a proportion of those admitted or dying.
56. This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines. This is because vaccine uptake has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds). There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x 10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake being so high.
Source UK government PDF file at the original article. I'm not really understanding this.
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