CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

goosebeans said:

Thanks for this, jward! This is so interesting.

Since my Mom contracted TB ( England, 16 years old, three years in hospital in the 1940s, lost a lung, expected to die, saved at the last minute by what was then a new drug, Streptomycin) I received the BCG vax at 5 days old then again at 5 years old ( the age most kids got it) I remember the joy at not needing the booster shot, unlike all my class mates, at age 14. The elderly British couple who ended up in the hospital in Japan had very mild symptoms from the virus. I'm sure they will have had the BCG shot when they were kids.

Sure hope there's something to this!

Click to expand...

Oh my goodness, I certainly hope so as well! Those in the discussion seemed hopeful, but, as we know, only time will tell.
...your mom's story is an amazing one in it's own right, and I'm tickled pink to hear such good tidings!
Excellent point you make, too, about the british couple's experience and how it would tend to lend support to this data.
::: crossing fingers and praying fervently that we will see this line of inquiry bear fruit! ::: thanks for the feedback!

Aleph


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@no_itsmyturn
13m

Europe sends medical gear to Iran through first sanction-bypass deal: Berlin #IranVia
@lummideast

Keith McCullough
@KeithMcCullough
· 19m
China just made-up the best made-up # I've ever seen them make up > China March official manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 35.7 in prior month

LOL- I know some of us - and our pets - can relate!

ShotsRangOut
@ShotsRangOut
5h

NO, I’M NOT COMING DOWN! We’ve been on 20 walks today. Leave me alone.

View: https://twitter.com/ShotsRangOut/status/1244829613252997120?s=20

...isn't plywood and TP made of the same product?
Matt Quinn
@BoboBichonFrise
2m

Social Disorder / Plywood. The US will soon be experiencing widespread social disorder. Business fronts desperately need plywood to board up window fronts from hoodlums. It's already started in Seattle. #ChinaVirus
View: https://twitter.com/BoboBichonFrise/status/1244919196510646278?s=20

Marnie O'Neill
@marnieoneill7
5h

Around 50 THOUSAND people have been warned by the QLD Gov about possible exposure to the coronavirus That's a lot of contact tracing

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244838101605703680

View: https://twitter.com/marnieoneill7/status/1244838101605703680?s=20

Lenore Taylor
@lenoretaylor
3h

Australians in their 20s have more confirmed cases of coronavirus than any other age group

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244868454173175809

View: https://twitter.com/lenoretaylor/status/1244868454173175809?s=20

ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ
@MackayIM
4h

Why so few Covid-19 infections in Singapore’s health workers? https://scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3077345/coronavirus-why-so-few-infections-singapores-health
via
@scmpnews
View: https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1244855953456893954?s=20

Nothing is really shut down in North Carolina except inside dining, haircuts, tattoo parlors and health clubs. Lowes, Home Depot, WalMart, Food Lion, OfficeDepot, Uber, Lyft, Taxis, Tax Agencies, Car Dealerships, Auto Repair shops, and everything else is still business as usual. At our Chevrolet Dealership old men line up to get oil changes every morning. Having your oil changed during a pandemic is a essential service BTW.. You can't find parking spaces at Home Depot or Walmart... The places are packed. They closed the beaches so everyone is just shopping at Walmart or buying new flowers at the garden center. Unless they get serious this will never end!

Trevor Bedford
@trvrb


A thread on #SARSCoV2 mutations and what they might mean for the #COVID19 vaccination and immunity, in which I predict it will take the virus a few years to mutate enough to significantly hinder a vaccine. 1/12

I'm writing this thread because I have a bunch of mentions talking about 100s of "strains" and no ability to vaccinate against them. I want to clarify scientific usage of strain vs mutation. 2/12

RNA viruses such as influenza mutate very rapidly. The molecular machinery they use to replicate in the body is highly error prone. 3/12

If you follow a transmission chain in which one person with flu infects another person and they infect another person and so on, you'll find that the virus mutates about once every 10 days across its genome. 4/12

Almost all of these mutations will have little to no effect on virus function. Evolution weeds out the mutations that "break" the virus and mutations that make a virus replicate better are extremely rare. 5/12

For influenza, the major driver of evolution is immunity. Mutations will occasionally appear that cause people's existing immunity to no longer protect as well against a newly emerged mutant virus. 6/12

This is why the strain used in the influenza vaccine needs to be updated by the @WHO every year. Here you can see evolution of influenza H3N2 over the past 12 years and the amount of "antigenic drift", ie evolution relevant to vaccines and immunity. nextstrain.org/flu/seasonal/h… 7/12
Importantly, this evolution takes takes place over years. When pandemic swine flu emerged in 2009, it took the virus a solid 3 years before we saw any evidence at all of antigenic drift. nextstrain.org/flu/seasonal/h… 8/12
If I had to guess, I would predict that #SARSCoV2 will behave similarly to existing seasonal coronaviruses in its ability to mutate to avoid vaccines and immunity. 9/12

Here we see that seasonal coronaviruses may behave similarly to seasonal flu in which frequent mutations to spike protein (the protein targeted by immunity) are observed (microbiologyresearch.org/content/journa…,


Genetic drift of human coronavirus OC43 spike gene during adaptive evo Coronaviruses (CoVs) continuously threaten human health. However, to date, the evolutionary mechanisms that govern CoV strain persistence in human populations have not been fully understood. In this … https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11451
). 10/12

Here's @firefoxx66's analysis of seasonal coronavirus OC43 where we see frequent mutations to spike protein. nextstrain.org/community/next… 11/12
So, my prediction is that we should see occasional mutations to the spike protein of #SARSCoV2 that allow the virus to partially escape from vaccines or existing "herd" immunity, but that this process will most likely take years rather than months. 12/12

COVID19 Perspective
@covidperspectiv
11m

An update on the situation in Africa following news that Nigeria is putting its two largest cities into lockdown. We've been worried for Africa since January. It will tragically be developing nations that get slammed the hardest by this.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244923843921080320

View: https://twitter.com/covidperspectiv/status/1244923843921080320?s=20

100 Questions of Peter Piot, LSHTM Director

By:
Jay Walker, TEDMED Curator

Thursday 12 March 2020

Q&A with Peter Piot



Share


1. TEDMED: Let’s start with the basics. What is a virus?
A virus is a very tiny particle of RNA or DNA genetic code protected by an outer protein wrapper.
2. TEDMED: How common are viruses?
Viruses are everywhere. It’s amazing to realize that if you add them all up, all the viruses in the world weigh more than all the living matter in the world – including all of the plants, animals and bacteria. 10% of the human genome is derived from virus DNA. The Earth truly is a “virus planet!”
3. TEDMED: Why is it so hard to stop a virus from spreading?
Because virus particles are so incredibly small, billions can float on tiny droplets in the air from just one cough.
4. TEDMED: Exactly how small is a virus?
Tiny. Even with a regular microscope, you can’t see a virus. 100 million viral particles of the novel coronavirus, can fit on a pinhead. That’s how incredibly small they are.
5. TEDMED: What do virus particles do?
Virus particles try to insert themselves into living cells in order to multiply, infect other cells and other hosts.
6. TEDMED: Why do viruses try to get into living cells?
It’s how viruses “reproduce.” Viruses act like parasites. They hijack living cells in order to force each cell to make more viruses. When a cell is hijacked, the virus sends out hundreds or thousands of copies of itself. It often kills the hijacked cell as a result.
7. TEDMED: What does it mean to be infected with the new coronavirus, which scientists have designated “SARS-CoV2”?
It means that SARS-CoV2 has started reproducing in your body.
8. TEDMED: What is the difference between SARS-CoV2 and COVID-19?
SARS-CoV2 is the virus; COVID-19 is the disease which that virus spreads.
9. TEDMED: Is it easy for a virus to get into a living cell?
This depends in the first place whether the cell has the right receptor for the particular virus, just as a key needs a specific keyhole to work. Most viruses are blocked by our immune system or because we don’t have the right receptors for the virus to enter the cell. Thus, 99% of them are harmless to humans.
10. TEDMED: How many kinds of viruses exist, and how many of them are harmful to humans?
Of the millions of types of viruses, only a few hundred are known to harm humans. New viruses emerge all the time. Most are harmless.
11. TEDMED: On average, how many particles of the virus does it take to infect you?
We really don’t know yet for SARS-CoV2. It usually takes very little.
12. TEDMED: What does it look like?
SARS-CoV2 looks like a tiny strand of spaghetti, wound up in a ball and packed inside a shell made of protein. The shell has spikes that stick out and make it look like the corona from the sun. This family of viruses all have a similar appearance; they all look like a corona.
13. TEDMED: How many different coronaviruses affect humans?
There are 7 coronaviruses that have human- to-human transmission. 4 generate a mild cold. But 3 of them can be deadly, including the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, and now the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV2.
14. TEDMED: Why is it called the “novel” coronavirus?
Novel just means it is new to humans, meaning that this specific virus is one that we’ve never seen before. Our immune system has been evolving for 2 million years. But since our bodies have never seen this virus before, there has been no opportunity for humans to develop immunity. That lack of immunity, combined with the virus’s ability to spread easily and its relative lethality, is why the arrival of SARS-CoV2 is so disturbing.
15. TEDMED: How often does a novel virus emerge that we need to care about?
It’s rare… but it happens. Examples include the viruses that cause diseases such as HIV, SARS, MERS and a few others. It will happen again. The emergence of a novel virus is a very big problem … if it can easily spread among people and if it is harmful.
16. TEDMED: How easily does the new virus spread?
SARS-CoV2 spreads fairly easily from person to person, through coughs and touch. It is a “respiratory transmitted” virus.
17. TEDMED: Is there any other way that the virus spreads?
Recent reports indicate that it may also spread via fecal and urine contamination, but that requires confirmation.
18. TEDMED: How is this new virus different from the earlier known coronaviruses that spread SARS or MERS?
SARS-CoV2 is different in 4 critical ways:
First, many infected people have no symptoms for days, so they can unknowingly infect others, and we don’t know who to isolate. This is very worrisome because SARS-CoV2 is highly infectious.
Second, 80% of the time, COVID-19 is a mild disease that feels like a minor cold or cough, so we don’t isolate ourselves, and infect others.
Third, the symptoms are easily confused with the flu, so many people think they have the flu and don’t consider other possibilities.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the virus is very easy to spread from human to human because in the early stages it is concentrated in the upper throat. The throat is full of viral particles so when we cough or sneeze, billions of these particles can be expelled and transmitted to another person.
19. TEDMED: I thought the virus leads to pneumonia? How is the throat involved?
The disease often starts in the throat (which is why tests often take a swab from the throat) and then as it progresses it moves down to the lungs and becomes a lower respiratory infection.
20. TEDMED: I hear the word “asymptomatic” used a lot. What does it mean?
It simply means having no symptoms.
21. TEDMED: Are you saying that someone can be infected with the new virus and never show symptoms at all?
Unfortunately, yes. Many infected people do not show any symptoms for the first few days and then a mild cough or low fever shows up. This is the opposite of SARS, where you had clear symptoms for a few days but were only contagious when sick.
22. TEDMED: If you have no symptoms, can you still infect other people?
Unfortunately, yes. And that makes it much more difficult to slow the spread.
23. TEDMED: How likely is it that scientists will develop a vaccine to prevent people from getting infected?
It is reasonably likely, but there are no guarantees that we will even have a vaccine. Failure is possible. For example, we’ve been searching for an HIV vaccine for 35 years and we still don’t have one. I’m optimistic that we will develop a vaccine for SARS-CoV2, but we will have to extensively test it for efficacy and safety – which takes a lot of people and time.
24. TEDMED: Assuming that a vaccine for coronavirus is possible and further assuming that it will be discovered fairly quickly, how long before we have a vaccine that we can start to inject into millions of people?
We will have vaccine “candidates” in a month or two. But because of the need for extensive testing to prove it protects and is safe, it will be at least a year before we have a vaccine we can inject into people that is approved by a major regulatory agency. In fact, 18 to 24 months is more likely by the time we scale it up to millions of doses, and that is optimistic.
25. TEDMED: Why will it take so long to develop a vaccine if this is an emergency?
It’s not necessarily vaccine discovery that takes so long, but vaccine testing. Once a “candidate” vaccine exists in the lab, a series of clinical trials are needed, first on animals and then on successively larger groups of people.
26. TEDMED: Have we made progress already?
The good news is that only weeks after the discovery and isolation of SARS-CoV2, which occurred in early January of 2020, vaccine development started immediately. Funding has been allocated by many governments and many companies and scientists around the world are working on it with great urgency.
27. TEDMED: Are scientists in these countries cooperating, or are they competing with each other?
A bit of both, and that is not a bad thing. But international cooperation has generally been good. That’s encouraging.
28. TEDMED: Can’t we develop a vaccine faster?
Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts. The human body’s immune system is complex and unpredictable. Viral mutations may occur. Children are different from adults. Women may respond differently than men. We need to be sure that any vaccine is 100% safe for everyone who gets it. To accomplish that, we need to test drugs and vaccines at various doses on a wide range of healthy human volunteers under carefully measured conditions.
29. TEDMED: How deadly is the new virus?
Most scientists believe that it kills 1% to 2% of all the people who become infected. The WHO currently reports a higher figure of more than 3%, but that estimate is likely to come down as they figure out how to count many unreported or mild cases. Mortality is clearly higher in older people and those with underlying conditions.
30. TEDMED: Is the average death rate the figure to focus on?
Not really. You can drown in an “average” of 3 inches of water. A better way to understand the risks are recognizing that it can be deadly for certain groups of people and much less so for other groups – with a wide range of outcomes.
31. TEDMED: So what are the numbers and checkpoints to focus on?
80% of the time it’s a mild disease, but in 20% of cases it becomes more severe, with the worst cases reporting high fever or shortness of breath. As a result some people require hospitalization, and some will need intensive care to survive through a few critical days when their lungs are extensively infected.
32. TEDMED: Which groups of people are most at danger here?
First of all, older people like me: I'm 71. The older you are, the higher your risk. Also at greater risk are people with underlying diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease and pulmonary disease or cardiovascular disease or immune deficiencies.
33. TEDMED: How much danger do these high-risk groups face?
Their mortality rate can be as high as 10% or even 15%. And, your risk increases when you have more health conditions. The scientific data about all of this is regularly updated on the web.
34. TEDMED: So your risk increases significantly if you have other conditions, such as diabetes. Why?
Because your immune system reacts poorly to any infectious virus, but particularly to this one.
35. TEDMED: It seems that generally speaking, children and young people are only mildly affected, if at all. Is that true?
This is what it looks like, but as for so many other issues on COVID-19, this requires confirmation.
36. TEDMED: If true, why would SARS-CoV2 affect older people much more, but not younger people and children?
We actually don’t know. It’s going to be a while before we figure it out.
37. TEDMED: Anything else unusual?
You can infect other people even if you are totally asymptomatic and feeling fine. That’s unusual, though it can also happen with HIV infection.
38. TEDMED: We often hear COVID-19 compared to the seasonal flu. What’s the right way to frame this comparison? For example, are the seasonal flu and coronavirus equally dangerous?
The seasonal flu typically infects up to 30 million people a year in the U.S., and fewer than 1/10th of 1% of the infected group will die – but that is still a big number. Worldwide, in an average year, a total of 300,000 people die from seasonal flu. But, on an average basis, the new coronavirus is 10-20 times more deadly, and in contrast to influenza, we cannot protect ourselves through vaccination.
39. TEDMED: Does the new virus spread as easily as the flu?
The new virus appears to spread as easily the flu.
40. TEDMED: Continuing with the comparison of flu and COVID-19, what about causes? Is the flu also caused by a virus?
Yes. Flu is caused by the influenza virus. But the influenza virus and coronavirus are very different. A flu shot doesn’t help you with the new coronavirus, but it greatly reduces your risk of flu. The common cold, for which there is no vaccine or cure, is often caused by another type of tiny virus called a rhinovirus, and occasionally another coronavirus.
41. TEDMED: How does the infection progress when the new coronavirus gets a foothold in your body?
It usually starts with a cough. Then a low fever. Then the low fever turns into a high fever and you get shortness of breath.
42. TEDMED: At what point is good medical care the difference between life and death?
It is usually when your fever is very high and your lungs are compromised so that you are short of breath or you need help to breathe.
43. TEDMED: How is the new virus different from a disease such as the measles, mumps or chicken pox?
SARS-CoV2 is currently far less infectious and dangerous but there is still a lot we don’t know about it. The other diseases are well understood.
44. TEDMED: If the new coronavirus is less dangerous than other viruses, why are many people so afraid of it?
Because new things that can kill us or cause us to be sick, make us very nervous. But accurate knowledge is the antidote to fear, so here in the U.S., I urge you to pay attention to CDC.gov. In other countries go your national health ministry or WHO websites.
45. TEDMED: How often should people check the CDC or WHO websites, or the website of their national health ministry?
We continuously update our knowledge as we learn more about the new virus, so these sites should be checked frequently.
46. TEDMED: Has mankind ever wiped out a virus completely?
Yes. Smallpox, which used to kill millions of people. And, we’re very close with polio thanks to the Gates Foundation and many governments around the world such as the U.S. Let’s not forget what a terrible plague that was in the world.
47. TEDMED: How does the new virus get to new places around the world?
By road, air and sea. Viruses travel by airplane nowadays. Some of the passengers may carry SARS-CoV2.
48. TEDMED: So, every international airport is a welcome mat for the new virus?
The reality is that SARS-CoV2 is already firmly present in most countries, including in the U.S., and far from any major international airport.
49. TEDMED: Since the epidemic began in China, do visitors from that country represent the biggest danger of importing coronavirus into the U.S.?
Since the new virus emerged in China in 2019, 20 million people have come into the U.S. from countries all over the world. The U.S. stopped most direct flights from China 4 weeks ago, but it did not prevent entry of the virus. Now cases of COVID-19 in China are often imported from other countries as the epidemic in China appears to be declining for the time being.

continued

50. TEDMED: In other words, major airports are all you need to guarantee that any country will have the virus everywhere in less than 3 months.
Yes. I think you say in America, “The horse has left the barn.” This is not a reason to completely stop all travel.
51. TEDMED: Why might a country like Japan close its schools?
Other countries such as Italy and France are doing the same. It’s because scientists don’t know how much of the spread is accelerated by children who are carriers. Japan is trying very hard to slow the spread. Children generally pass along viruses quickly since they don’t wash their hands or practice much personal hygiene. They play a big role in how the flu spreads which is why many countries have been closing schools in affected areas.
52. TEDMED: If I get infected, are there drugs I can take to make the virus less severe, or make it go away entirely?
No drugs have yet been proven effective as a treatment or what doctors call a “therapy.” A lot of different drugs are being tested in clinical trials, so hopefully that will change for the better soon.
53. TEDMED: How likely are we to come up with new therapeutic drugs, and how soon?
I'm quite confident that probably in a matter of a couple of months, we are very likely to find “off-label” uses of current drugs that help treat an infected person. In other words, we'll have a new use for existing drugs that were originally used against other viral infections such as HIV. It will take time and a lot of real tests to be sure though. New therapeutic drugs are being tested in clinical trials, particularly in China, but also elsewhere. It looks promising.
54. TEDMED: What about antibiotics? Everybody always turns to them in a crisis.
This is a new virus, not a bacteria. Antibiotics work against bacteria but they do not work against viruses. They may be helpful in hospital usage with secondary infections that are bacterial, but antibiotics have no effect at all on the new virus itself.
55. TEDMED: What about all kinds of new cures and therapies and treatments I’ve heard about on the Internet?
There are going to be endless false claims. Only when you read about it on multiple reliable websites, you can feel confident there is real science. But most of what you hear will be total rubbish, so be very careful, and don’t spread unconfirmed rumors.
56. TEDMED: How about masks? Are those blue surgical masks or an N95 facemask useful?
Masks have very limited value except in certain specific circumstances. For example, depending on the type of N95 mask, just under 50% of inbound virus particles will be filtered out, but they may reduce spread from airborne droplets.
57. TEDMED: What are the advantages of masks when used properly and who should wear masks?
The best masks, carefully fitted and worn properly, slow down the spread FROM sick people coughing. Meaning, the mask is not to protect you from other people; it is to protect other people from you. It is a courtesy to others to wear a mask when you get what you think is a cold, and you start coughing. Masks have an additional benefit: they make it less likely that you will touch your mouth, so it becomes less likely that if you have the virus on your hands, you will transfer it into your body. Masks provide benefits for healthcare workers. If you work in a healthcare setting or in elder care, masks are mandatory.
58. TEDMED: Is there anything I can do to prevent from becoming infected in a global pandemic outbreak?
Washing hands frequently, not touching your face, coughing and sneezing in your elbow or a paper handkerchief, not shaking hands or hugging all reduce your risk. If you are sick, stay home and consult with a doctor over the phone to see what to do next, and wear a mask when seeing other people.
59. TEDMED: What does “mitigation” mean? I hear scientists using that word a lot.
Mitigation means slowing the spread of the virus, and attempting to limit its effects on public health services, public life and the economy. Until there’s a vaccine, what we can do is slow it down. That is really important.
60. TEDMED: What other ways can we slow down the spread of the virus?
Good hygiene and common courtesy can slow down the spread. In addition, “social distancing” measures — such as working from home, not taking a plane, closing schools, and banning major gatherings — will help slow the spread of SARS-CoV2.
61. TEDMED: Do different viruses spread more easily than others?
Yes. Measles is the worst. You can get measles by walking into an empty room that an infected person left 2 hours earlier! That’s why we have measles outbreaks when vaccination rates go down. It’s a very tough disease. The common cold spreads fairly easily. HIV is much harder to spread, and yet we’ve had 32 million deaths.
62. TEDMED: What will it take to stop this virus?
Nobody really knows for sure, but China has shown that it is possible to stop the spread significantly. A vaccine may be necessary to fully eliminate SARS-CoV2.
63. TEDMED: How long will it take for the new virus to spread through a population the size of the United States?
Left to spread with normal measures of good hygiene, SARS-CoV2 appears to double its infected population about every week. That means it will go from 50 people who are infected to 1 million people infected in about 14 weeks. That's the simple arithmetic of contagion. Of course, we can do things to slow it down.
64. TEDMED: How effective is good hygiene in slowing down the spread of coronavirus? Do the numbers of infected people decrease noticeably if people follow the guidelines?
The numbers change based on how careful people are, and even small changes are important to avoid stressing the healthcare system more than absolutely necessary.
65. TEDMED: Can a few thousand cases be hidden among our population? How would that be possible?
Every year, there are millions of flu cases. This year, some of these cases are actually COVID-19. In addition, many infected persons show no symptoms or very mild symptoms, so they are hiding in plain sight.
66. TEDMED: Exactly what does it mean to test positive?
It means that a sensitive test has detected that the virus is present in fluids from that person.
67. TEDMED: Should everyone be tested as quickly as possible?
Testing for COVID-19 should be much more widely available because we still don’t know enough about who is infected, and how the virus spreads in the community. We need far more testing to learn important data.
68. TEDMED: Why has South Korea set up a system of “drive-through” testing?
South Korea has drive-through testing because they are trying very hard to slow the outbreak by finding every infected person as fast as they can.
69. TEDMED: What is the main symptom that people should be on the lookout for?
Coughing is the #1 symptom.
70. TEDMED: Is fever a good way to identify infected people?
A high fever may be cause for concern and is worth getting medical attention. But screening for fever alone, at an airport or checkpoint for example, lets a lot of infected people pass.
71. TEDMED: What percentage of the people who tested positive in Chinese hospitals arrived without a fever?
About 30% of Chinese coronavirus patients had no fever when they arrived at the hospital.
72. TEDMED: Is the new virus likely to come back to a country again once it peaks and the number of new cases drops off?
SARS-CoV2 is likely to never leave us without the same effort that eliminated smallpox and has almost eliminated polio.
73. TEDMED: Meaning, the only way to beat the new coronavirus in the long term is global population-wide vaccinations?
We really don’t know. Population-based measures may work, but a vaccine may be necessary and is probably viable as long as the virus stays stable and does not mutate too much.
74. TEDMED: Might the new virus “burn out” like other viruses have seemed to do?
We don’t know, but it is unlikely. SARS-CoV2 is already too well established around the world. This is no longer just a Chinese issue; there are probably hundreds of thousands of people infected but not yet tested — not only in China but in close to 100 other countries. SARS-CoV2, like the influenza virus that causes the seasonal flu, will likely be with us for a long, long time.
75. TEDMED: Will the new virus come back in waves or cycles, and if so, when?
Again, we don’t know, but it is a very important question. Probably, although at this early stage, nothing is sure. The 1918 pandemic flu circled the world in 3 waves. The new virus may have a second wave in China with the reopening of schools and factories. But until we see what actually happens, we don’t know how SARSCoV2 will behave.
76. TEDMED: If we get a “lucky” break or two in the coming months, what does being “lucky” look like?
Warm weather may slow down the spread, although we don’t have any evidence yet that this is the case. Singapore, which has 120 cases already, and has one of the best COVID-19 control programs in the world, is just 70 miles from the equator — so at least in that case, a warm climate has not stopped the virus from spreading. It’s possible that SARS-CoV2 could steadily mutate into a less dangerous form so that fewer people die from it, as happened before with the swine flu in 2009. But I wouldn't count on it. Quickly finding an effective drug therapy or cocktail of drugs would be excellent news. That’s about it for luck.
77. TEDMED: Do people who are at high risk for COVID-19 have the same chance of dying everywhere?
Unfortunately, your risk of death depends a lot on where you are in the world. If you need and get cared for in a well-equipped modern hospital, which we hope is accessible to lots of people, the death rate will be far lower because of intensive care respirators and fewer secondary infections.
78. TEDMED: How do I know if I’m going to be in the mild group or the one that needs hospitalization?
You don’t know for sure, but being over 70 or having a chronic condition increases your risk of severe illness, and even death. We can only speak in terms of probabilities, because we don’t yet know enough about COVID-19.
79. TEDMED: Should I be worried that I’m going to get COVID-19? How worried are you, Peter?
If you’re not at high risk, I wouldn’t worry too much, but I would do everything I can to avoid becoming infected as you don’t know individual outcomes. Everyone is eventually going to be at risk for acquiring this infection in the next few years, just as no one avoids the common cold or the flu over time. So all of us should be ready to stay home at the first signs.
80. TEDMED: What do you mean everyone is going to be at risk for getting the virus?
I mean that all humans spend time with other humans, so we are all connected -- and biology is relentless. However, I would take sensible precautions and, at the same time, not worry obsessively. That isn’t helpful.
81. TEDMED: If everyone is going to get the new virus, why try to avoid getting it? If I get the virus immediately, then I can be done with it and move on.
We want to slow down the infection, which means slow down the number of new cases and total cases so our hospitals can handle the most affected patients without getting overwhelmed or turning away patients with other types of illnesses that require immediate attention.
82. TEDMED: It appears that after people recover from the new virus, they may still be contagious. Is that true?
We don’t know, although it appears that may be the case for a while after recovery. We are not totally sure. More research is needed.
83. TEDMED: Once you get the virus, are you then permanently immune to getting it again, like with measles or mumps?
Here again, we don’t know the answer to that important question yet.
84. TEDMED: Obviously, permanent immunity against COVID-19 would be important for individuals who came through one bout of the disease. Is such immunity also important for society as a whole? Why?
This question is extremely important for the vaccine development, because vaccines rely on the ability of our body to mount a protective immune response and on a stable virus. And obviously the number of people susceptible to becoming infected would gradually decrease over time.
85. TEDMED: Is the new virus seasonal, like the flu?
We haven’t gone long enough to see if there is a seasonal mutation to SARS-CoV2, or how the trillions of new virus particles change as they pass through millions of people.
86. TEDMED: So this virus can mutate by itself into new forms with new symptoms?
We don’t know at all. If it does, new vaccines may be necessary to prevent the mutated version of SARS-CoV2 from spreading.
87. TEDMED: If the virus naturally mutates, does that mean it could become more deadly, and on the other hand, it could also become less deadly?
Yes, either one is possible. It’s a new virus, so we have no idea what the mutations will do.
88. TEDMED: If coronavirus becomes a threat that doesn’t go away, what does that mean for myself and my family?
It means we will all learn to deal with it, and make sure we are all adopting safe behaviors. We should be particularly mindful of the needs of older family members.
89. TEDMED: I heard the virus can live for 9 days on a countertop. Is that true?
It’s probable that SARS-CoV2 can stay viable on some surfaces for quite a while, but we don’t know for how long.
90. TEDMED: The greatest pandemic of modern times was the 1918 flu pandemic right at the end of World War I. In that pandemic, influenza simply mutated – it was not a new virus. How does SARS-CoV2 compare to that mutation?
SARS-CoV2 is just as contagious as the 1918 influenza pandemic and appears to be nearly as lethal, but time will tell. Remember, back in 1918 there was no medical system anything like what we have in the developed world, and there were no antibiotics to treat bacterial pneumonia, which was a major cause of death.
91. TEDMED: Is there any chance that this is one giant false alarm and that we’re going to look back this summer and say “wow, we all panicked over nothing!”?
No. COVID-19 is already in well over 100 countries and it’s highly contagious. Virtually every day there are more and more cases, in more countries. This is not a drill. It is the real thing.
92. TEDMED: It’s hard to believe that suddenly a truly new virus that mankind has never seen can infect millions of people. When is the last time that happened?
SARS and MERS were new – but they did not reach scale. HIV was new to the world and has infected 70 million people – of whom 32 million have died from the HIV Pandemic.
93. TEDMED: HIV affects poor countries much more than wealthier ones. Will that likely be true for the new virus?
Yes, absolutely. Wealthy countries such as the U.S. are going to have much lower death rates because of better hydration, supplemental breathing equipment, proper handling of infections, and the like. This is potentially a giant problem for low-resource countries that have poor health systems. Many countries in Africa will face enormous risks. When it reaches the most resource-challenged countries of the world, it's very likely to be catastrophic.
94. TEDMED: It sounds like the bottom line is that you are not terribly optimistic.
In general, I'm definitely an optimist but at the same time, there is a lot to be very uncomfortable and nervous about. I understand people have fears, especially if they are in one or more of the high-risk groups. But there is also good news, because we are already seeing progress in global cooperation, especially in science and medicine. We are seeing more transparency among governments. The number of cases in China is currently rapidly declining, but that could change. And, we are seeing very rapid development of therapeutics, for example.
95. TEDMED: You also said there is a lot to be concerned about. What are your biggest worries for the new virus?
Poorly managed, the spread of coronavirus can quickly overload any country’s healthcare system and block people who really need all kinds of medical access. Another worry is that overreaction and fear can cripple a country’s economy, which causes another kind of suffering. So, this is a very tough trade-off.
96. TEDMED: And, what should we be psychologically prepared for?
We should be psychologically prepared to hear about lots of “new” cases being reported in every city in the U.S. that begins testing, as well as an increasing number of deaths, particularly among the elderly. In reality they are often not “new” cases; they are existing cases that have become visible for the first time.
97. TEDMED: What things are you encouraged about?
1. Modern biology is moving at breakneck speed.
2. In addition to the public health community worldwide, including the World Health Organization, Government leaders at the highest levels are focusing on the threat.
3. We isolated the virus in days and sequenced it quickly. 4. I am confident we will soon have a treatment. 5. We are hopefully going to have a vaccine. 6. This is truly the age of modern communication. That can help us, as long as we debunk fake and dangerous news.
98. TEDMED: How ready is the U.S. for this?
The U.S. has had ample time for a head start to prepare for this pandemic, and so have other high-income countries. We all benefitted from China’s unprecedented mass quarantines that slowed down the spread. The U.S. will handle the serious cases correctly from the start by being more prepared.
99. TEDMED: Who are you most worried about?
It’s the low-resource countries that I am very worried about. Each death is a tragedy. When we say that on average, 1% to 2% of infected people will die from coronavirus, that is a lot. After all, 1% of a million is 10,000 people, and it is the elderly I am very worried about. But 98%-99% of people won't die from this. The seasonal flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year and you don’t panic – even if we actually should take flu far more seriously and make sure we are all vaccinated against it every year. Just as we have learned to live with seasonal flu, I think we will need to learn how to go about our lives in a normal fashion, despite the presence of COVID-19, until an effective vaccine becomes available.
100. TEDMED: Are there more pandemics in our future?
Definitely yes. This is part of our human condition and of living on a “virus planet.” It is a never-ending battle. We need to improve our preparedness. That means committing ourselves to seriously invest in pandemic preparedness and building a global fire brigade, long before the house catches on fire next time.


© 2020 London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved.


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Am inclined to agree with her.


SCREAMING IN THE FOREST
Posted on March 30, 2020by accordingtohoyt



"If a sane person screams in the forest of madness, but the circus goes on, did it really happen? Asking for a friend.

Look, guys, I know I’m not exactly “sane,” since sanity consists of fitting really well with the herd. I remember being called crazy in the seventies in Europe, when I said that “hey, how come if Russia is so wonderful people risk death to get out of it?” “How come if Cuba is a paradise no Americans are floating in an inner tube to Cuba, instead of the other way around?”

I am, as you guys know, suspicious by nature, but I’m not BY NATURE a conspiracy theorist. Even after things lie Journolist, I refuse to believe that most human beings can either create a conspiracy or keep it secret, in the face of being human and the temptations thereof.

But you know what? I don’t blame the conspiracy theorists this time. Believing that there’s something massive afoot beats believing everyone has gone howling mad.

I don’t in any way believe any of the fringe lunatic conspiracies going around from “this all to arrest pedophiles” (Oh, for f*ck’s sake people. Even if Trump COULD orchestrate that kind of operation, I wouldn’t want him to. Talk about abuse of executive power and cutting off your head to cure a headache. Also seeing pedophiles under every bed is kind of an American thing. You have to be born and raised here to believe it. Yes, like the Wu-flu pedophilia is really bad in certain sub-cultures and clusters, but probably not above normal human depravity. And most of it is probably ephebophilia and a love for “almost legal” girls. There is a baseline for this stuff across human history, and no I don’t think we’re any worse. Yes, a lot of them will be very powerful. That’s the nature of the game. BUT you don’t need a big secret operation to “get rid” of them, nor would that be the way to do it) or linked to but divergent “this is when the democrats get arrested” (really, like all the prominent people in the administration who were also in Obama’s? Or do you have others in mind? Last I checked Hillary was still running her mouth. Seriously. If you buy any theory that requires CHINA and IRAN to cooperate with the US government on a massive lie and you think that lie would be to our benefit, you aren’t naive. Naive is too mild a word for this. I think you’ve gone crazy, just in a different way from the majority.) And holy hell and all the furies, no, I don’t believe G5 is causing this. There is a danger of G5 being basically wholly owned by China and therefore vulnerable, but it’s not MAGICAL. I’m more likely to believe that G5 gives little girls the power to turn people into frogs.

Which leaves me with “What is going on?” And “How many of us are seeing it makes no sense and think we’re all alone?”
As I’ve said, I’ve taken contra-popular positions before, but never this much. I’ve never seen people go this crazy in my life time and believe obvious deception, including very smart people who’ve never fallen for this sh*t before.

I like to say this is because people who love this country would rather believe that we’re facing the black death than that we’re being systematically destroyed by an enemy, domestic.
This is not only not the black death, this is very far from the black death.

And this is only in the US. The “Disaster” that’s Italy has killed ten thousand people, mostly very old. The normal flu in Italy normally kills four or five times that.

Honestly, the only two conspiracy theories that make sense is that this is a psy-ops from deeply embedded greenies seeking to reduce the numbers of humanity, or that China is coordinating this with everyone in the US who works for China and is in their pay and is afraid of getting discovered. And I don’t even believe THAT because someone would break ranks/get scared/realize that they too are made of flesh and will die in this.

Because guys, the situation is dire. Yes, farmers are still planting. BUT THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN DISTRIBUTE FOOD EFFICIENTLY OTHER THAN THE FREE MARKET and we’re taking the mother of all hammers to the free market.

And trust me, trust me, please trust me on this: IF the wheels come off in the US the rest of the world is going to die screaming this winter. And I don’t know if this bullshit of what amounts to five months in lock down hasn’t already done all the damage that guarantees that.
So…. What is going on, precisely?

At this point I feel like I’m living in 1984. Is it really bad in NYC? Has to be, in spots, at least, because otherwise they’d fake bigger numbers, right? But then again, who the hell knows?
Here’s what I know: almost everyone I know in the medical profession is getting half-time work. Why? Well, because hospitals are empty having kicked out/postponed everything and everyone but the most dire cases. Most people I know in the medical profession is staring at empty hospitals and being told the onslaught is coming “soon.” And if you post about it on twitter — I read a thread where someone did, yesterday — you get screamed at that they hope you get intubated.

People are going out of their minds. I’m an introvert, and most of what’s driving me bonkers is seeing the powers casually assumed — and not challenged — by mayors and governors. You know, I’m starting to wonder if an order went out to wear a tutu, would people do it? BUT most human beings need some contact, and those people are TRULY losing their sh*t. I saw a woman in vinyl gloves (the crazier ones are always in vinyl gloves. And do they realize that if they then touch things and their face, it’s just like their own skin, right?) go crazy in a Walmart parking lot because she dropped a bag of groceries. We’re talking epic toddler fit. And she wasn’t alone.

And then there’s the even crazier compliance. Yesterday I stepped back to get something from my cart at the grocery store, and the gentleman in line behind me stepped hastily back. Because six feet. Even though the six feet make absolutely no sense, and only applies to AEROSOLIZED virus. You don’t breathe aerosol. You don’t now, you never did. Sure, if you’re coughing violently some particles in your breath might be NEAR aerosolized. But no, not really. Some people think there’s an aerosol effect from the force of flushing a toilet but even that is not quite it. THIS IS NOT HOW ANY OF THIS WORKS.

From that paper, and yes, it’s Zero Hedge, but the paper is sane, except for believing China:

An author of a working paper from the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Princeton University said, “The current scientific consensus is that most transmission via respiratory secretions happens in the form of large respiratory droplets … rather than small aerosols. Droplets, fortunately, are heavy enough that they don’t travel very far and instead fall from the air after traveling only a few feet.”
The media was put into a frenzy when the above authors released their study on COVID-19’s ability to survive in the air. The study did find the virus could survive in the air for a couple of hours; however, this study was designed as academic exercise rather than a real-world test. This study put COVID-19 into a spray bottle to “mist” it into the air. I don’t know anyone who coughs in mist form and it is unclear if the viral load was large enough to infect another individual As one doctor, who wants to remain anonymous, told me, “Corona doesn’t have wings”.

Click to expand...

To summarize, China, Singapore, and South Korea’s containment efforts worked because community-based and airborne transmission aren’t common. The most common form of transmission is person-to-person or surface-based.

Click to expand...

So, don’t kiss strangers and don’t lick public toilets, wash your hands and don’t touch your face until you have WORK.

What we’re doing? Yeah, what we’re doing is straight up crazy.

Has anyone else noticed that for a month now “next week it’s going to get bad?” and “The peak is two weeks away?” DOES ANYONE ELSE REMEMBER or is everyone else getting memory wiped every day?

Has anyone else noticed that the homeless aren’t dying or even getting sick — as a bunch of us started pointing this out a bunch of stories started circulating about “This sick homeless man approached me and–” But those are exactly like the stories of Woke Eight Year Olds who are so scared of Trump they threaten suicide. They’re not credible. Also see thing above about empty hospitals. Yes, the homeless DO use the ED. They’re frequent flyers. They’re not using it any more than normal, or credibly sick more than normal from everything I’ve seen.

In our empty cities, they congregate in job lots, visibly not getting any unhealthier than they already were.

And the excuses I get for this? “Oh, they’re outside, the air takes the virus way.”
Uh uh. so why are deranged local governments closing public parks? And beaches? On the excuse that people WHO DON’T BREATHE IN AEROSOL weren’t respecting the six foot distance rule.

It’s like “Brazil, and the other places in the world where people can’t self-isolate (they can’t. Have you looked at housing/densitity/etc.) they don’t seem to be dying in massive batch lots. How come?” “Oh, the virus can’t survive in warm and humid environments.” I’ve actually seen this in serious articles.

AND YET they’re quarantining putting Florida under house arrest. (Quarantine is when you isolate the sick. — and btw, WHY not do that instead? Or even the vulnerable, if we can’t test for all the sick? — When you put the healthy under house arrest, it’s called tyranny.) Hot, humid. And Louisiana has a bad outbreak…. Does anyone know the climate in Louisiana? Gee, it must be as cold and dry as Colorado.

AM I THE ONLY PERSON SEEING THE OBVIOUS IN YOUR FACE DANCING CONTRADICTIONS?

Sometimes in the same article.

And why are very few people tallying the COST in lives of what we’re doing? Do most people think money rains from heaven or something?
Because just chronic stress, either from fear of the virus or fear that we’re now living in 1984 and will never be let out is going to result in deaths: suicides, autoimmune episodes (YOU don’t want to know) heart disease and cancer are all going to take their toll.
So is hunger (if you think we can stay on lock down five months and distribution will be fine, you must be a Marxist. They never understand distribution. Which is fine because the father of lies Marxism also didn’t.) Maybe famine won’t kill people in the US (I wouldn’t bet) but in the rest of the world, there will be massive deaths from famine.

And that’s without counting all the “minor” ailments that aren’t being seen or treated and which will turn out not to be minor.

Usually in this type of situation you can look at who benefits and figure out what is driving it.
Sure, the media benefits from captive audiences, which they haven’t enjoyed in a decade. Greens are all happy because we’re “reducing carbon.” And local politicians are getting their fascist boots on and strutting around enjoying their power. Oh, and Nancy Pelosi got to gloat early on that this was the end of Western civilization.

Is that it? Is this what it takes for our nation and culture to commit suicide? Gleefully? Is this all?
And again, do none of the people driving this realize that they too are human, and the destruction they’re wreaking will engulf them and destroy them and their lives as much as the rest of us?
How many more extensions of house arrest are we getting? At this point I’m not sure this makes any sense EVEN IF HIS WERE THE BLACK PLAGUE. The continued “fake quarantine” will destroy more than death on a massive scale. Because TANSTAAFL and people will die from this in droves within a year. (Sure the deaths will be less visible. But hell, the deaths from Wu-Flu are practically nonexistent on a scale of “what the flu does every year”.)

So, what is going on here? Am I the only one screaming in the forest of fear?
WHO ARE ALL YOU ZOMBIES?"

Boris Johnson's government is furious with China and believes it could have 40 times the number of coronavirus cases it says
Adam Payne

Mar 29, 2020

• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government is said to be furious with China, accusing it of spreading disinformation and lying about the number of coronavirus cases it has.
• "Some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC.
• Scientists have reportedly told Johnson that China could have up to 40 times the number of cases it says.
• Estimates from Radio Free Asia show that up to 42,000 bodies have been cremated in Wuhan since the crisis.
• It could prompt the prime minister to abandon his deal with the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government is said to be furious over China's handling of the novel coronavirus, with one British official quoted on Sunday saying Beijing would face a "reckoning" once the COVID-19 crisis was over.

UK government officials are accusing China of spreading disinformation about the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in its borders, the Mail on Sunday reports.
The newspaper says scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.

Officials also apparently believe China is trying to expand its economic power through offering help to other countries that are trying to combat the virus.
The newspaper quoted three UK officials, who all reported fury within Johnson's government.
"It is going to be back to the diplomatic drawing board after this," one said. "Rethink is an understatement."

The second unnamed official said "there has to be a reckoning when this is over," while the third said "the anger goes right to the top."
The newspaper added that Johnson's government was so angry with China's handling of the crisis that the prime minister could abandon his decision to let the Chinese telecoms company Huawei develop the UK's 5G wireless network.

Johnson angered his main ally, President Donald Trump, by giving Huawei a limited but significant role in improving the country's wireless infrastructure.
The Trump administration was angered by the decision, with the president himself reportedly expressing his disapproval before hanging up in an "apoplectic" phone call with Johnson last month.

The decision also riled swathes of lawmakers in Johnson's Conservative Party.
"We can't stand by and allow the Chinese state's desire for secrecy to ruin the world's economy and then come back like nothing has happened," one Cabinet minister quoted by the Mail on Sunday said.

"We're allowing companies like Huawei not just into our economy, but to be a crucial part of our infrastructure. This needs to be reviewed urgently, as does any strategically important infrastructure that relies on Chinese supply chains."

Johnson has written to every UK household urging people to continue following strict social-distancing rules.
In the letter, expected to reach Brits in the next few days, the prime minister, who this week tested positive for the coronavirus, said things would "get worse before they get better."
"But we are making the right preparations, and the more we all follow the rules, the fewer lives will be lost and the sooner life can return to normal," he said.

The prime minister last week introduced a national lockdown, telling people to leave their homes only for essential reasons and giving the UK police the power to fine those who do not comply."

MinnesotaSmith said:

Am inclined to agree with her.

Screaming In The Forest

If a sane person screams in the forest of madness, but the circus goes on, did it really happen? Asking for a friend. Look, guys, I know I’m not exactly “sane,” since sanity cons…

accordingtohoyt.com

SCREAMING IN THE FOREST
Posted on March 30, 2020by accordingtohoyt

"If a sane person screams in the forest of madness, but the circus goes on, did it really happen? Asking for a friend.

Look, guys, I know I’m not exactly “sane,” since sanity consists of fitting really well with the herd. I remember being called crazy in the seventies in Europe, when I said that “hey, how come if Russia is so wonderful people risk death to get out of it?” “How come if Cuba is a paradise no Americans are floating in an inner tube to Cuba, instead of the other way around?”

I am, as you guys know, suspicious by nature, but I’m not BY NATURE a conspiracy theorist. Even after things lie Journolist, I refuse to believe that most human beings can either create a conspiracy or keep it secret, in the face of being human and the temptations thereof.

But you know what? I don’t blame the conspiracy theorists this time. Believing that there’s something massive afoot beats believing everyone has gone howling mad.

I don’t in any way believe any of the fringe lunatic conspiracies going around from “this all to arrest pedophiles” (Oh, for f*ck’s sake people. Even if Trump COULD orchestrate that kind of operation, I wouldn’t want him to. Talk about abuse of executive power and cutting off your head to cure a headache. Also seeing pedophiles under every bed is kind of an American thing. You have to be born and raised here to believe it. Yes, like the Wu-flu pedophilia is really bad in certain sub-cultures and clusters, but probably not above normal human depravity. And most of it is probably ephebophilia and a love for “almost legal” girls. There is a baseline for this stuff across human history, and no I don’t think we’re any worse. Yes, a lot of them will be very powerful. That’s the nature of the game. BUT you don’t need a big secret operation to “get rid” of them, nor would that be the way to do it) or linked to but divergent “this is when the democrats get arrested” (really, like all the prominent people in the administration who were also in Obama’s? Or do you have others in mind? Last I checked Hillary was still running her mouth. Seriously. If you buy any theory that requires CHINA and IRAN to cooperate with the US government on a massive lie and you think that lie would be to our benefit, you aren’t naive. Naive is too mild a word for this. I think you’ve gone crazy, just in a different way from the majority.) And holy hell and all the furies, no, I don’t believe G5 is causing this. There is a danger of G5 being basically wholly owned by China and therefore vulnerable, but it’s not MAGICAL. I’m more likely to believe that G5 gives little girls the power to turn people into frogs.

Which leaves me with “What is going on?” And “How many of us are seeing it makes no sense and think we’re all alone?”
As I’ve said, I’ve taken contra-popular positions before, but never this much. I’ve never seen people go this crazy in my life time and believe obvious deception, including very smart people who’ve never fallen for this sh*t before.

I like to say this is because people who love this country would rather believe that we’re facing the black death than that we’re being systematically destroyed by an enemy, domestic.
This is not only not the black death, this is very far from the black death.

And this is only in the US. The “Disaster” that’s Italy has killed ten thousand people, mostly very old. The normal flu in Italy normally kills four or five times that.

Honestly, the only two conspiracy theories that make sense is that this is a psy-ops from deeply embedded greenies seeking to reduce the numbers of humanity, or that China is coordinating this with everyone in the US who works for China and is in their pay and is afraid of getting discovered. And I don’t even believe THAT because someone would break ranks/get scared/realize that they too are made of flesh and will die in this.

Because guys, the situation is dire. Yes, farmers are still planting. BUT THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN DISTRIBUTE FOOD EFFICIENTLY OTHER THAN THE FREE MARKET and we’re taking the mother of all hammers to the free market.

And trust me, trust me, please trust me on this: IF the wheels come off in the US the rest of the world is going to die screaming this winter. And I don’t know if this bullshit of what amounts to five months in lock down hasn’t already done all the damage that guarantees that.
So…. What is going on, precisely?

At this point I feel like I’m living in 1984. Is it really bad in NYC? Has to be, in spots, at least, because otherwise they’d fake bigger numbers, right? But then again, who the hell knows?
Here’s what I know: almost everyone I know in the medical profession is getting half-time work. Why? Well, because hospitals are empty having kicked out/postponed everything and everyone but the most dire cases. Most people I know in the medical profession is staring at empty hospitals and being told the onslaught is coming “soon.” And if you post about it on twitter — I read a thread where someone did, yesterday — you get screamed at that they hope you get intubated.

People are going out of their minds. I’m an introvert, and most of what’s driving me bonkers is seeing the powers casually assumed — and not challenged — by mayors and governors. You know, I’m starting to wonder if an order went out to wear a tutu, would people do it? BUT most human beings need some contact, and those people are TRULY losing their sh*t. I saw a woman in vinyl gloves (the crazier ones are always in vinyl gloves. And do they realize that if they then touch things and their face, it’s just like their own skin, right?) go crazy in a Walmart parking lot because she dropped a bag of groceries. We’re talking epic toddler fit. And she wasn’t alone.

And then there’s the even crazier compliance. Yesterday I stepped back to get something from my cart at the grocery store, and the gentleman in line behind me stepped hastily back. Because six feet. Even though the six feet make absolutely no sense, and only applies to AEROSOLIZED virus. You don’t breathe aerosol. You don’t now, you never did. Sure, if you’re coughing violently some particles in your breath might be NEAR aerosolized. But no, not really. Some people think there’s an aerosol effect from the force of flushing a toilet but even that is not quite it. THIS IS NOT HOW ANY OF THIS WORKS.

From that paper, and yes, it’s Zero Hedge, but the paper is sane, except for believing China:


So, don’t kiss strangers and don’t lick public toilets, wash your hands and don’t touch your face until you have WORK.

What we’re doing? Yeah, what we’re doing is straight up crazy.

Has anyone else noticed that for a month now “next week it’s going to get bad?” and “The peak is two weeks away?” DOES ANYONE ELSE REMEMBER or is everyone else getting memory wiped every day?

Has anyone else noticed that the homeless aren’t dying or even getting sick — as a bunch of us started pointing this out a bunch of stories started circulating about “This sick homeless man approached me and–” But those are exactly like the stories of Woke Eight Year Olds who are so scared of Trump they threaten suicide. They’re not credible. Also see thing above about empty hospitals. Yes, the homeless DO use the ED. They’re frequent flyers. They’re not using it any more than normal, or credibly sick more than normal from everything I’ve seen.

In our empty cities, they congregate in job lots, visibly not getting any unhealthier than they already were.

And the excuses I get for this? “Oh, they’re outside, the air takes the virus way.”
Uh uh. so why are deranged local governments closing public parks? And beaches? On the excuse that people WHO DON’T BREATHE IN AEROSOL weren’t respecting the six foot distance rule.

It’s like “Brazil, and the other places in the world where people can’t self-isolate (they can’t. Have you looked at housing/densitity/etc.) they don’t seem to be dying in massive batch lots. How come?” “Oh, the virus can’t survive in warm and humid environments.” I’ve actually seen this in serious articles.

AND YET they’re quarantining putting Florida under house arrest. (Quarantine is when you isolate the sick. — and btw, WHY not do that instead? Or even the vulnerable, if we can’t test for all the sick? — When you put the healthy under house arrest, it’s called tyranny.) Hot, humid. And Louisiana has a bad outbreak…. Does anyone know the climate in Louisiana? Gee, it must be as cold and dry as Colorado.

AM I THE ONLY PERSON SEEING THE OBVIOUS IN YOUR FACE DANCING CONTRADICTIONS?

Sometimes in the same article.

And why are very few people tallying the COST in lives of what we’re doing? Do most people think money rains from heaven or something?
Because just chronic stress, either from fear of the virus or fear that we’re now living in 1984 and will never be let out is going to result in deaths: suicides, autoimmune episodes (YOU don’t want to know) heart disease and cancer are all going to take their toll.
So is hunger (if you think we can stay on lock down five months and distribution will be fine, you must be a Marxist. They never understand distribution. Which is fine because the father of lies Marxism also didn’t.) Maybe famine won’t kill people in the US (I wouldn’t bet) but in the rest of the world, there will be massive deaths from famine.

And that’s without counting all the “minor” ailments that aren’t being seen or treated and which will turn out not to be minor.

Usually in this type of situation you can look at who benefits and figure out what is driving it.
Sure, the media benefits from captive audiences, which they haven’t enjoyed in a decade. Greens are all happy because we’re “reducing carbon.” And local politicians are getting their fascist boots on and strutting around enjoying their power. Oh, and Nancy Pelosi got to gloat early on that this was the end of Western civilization.

Is that it? Is this what it takes for our nation and culture to commit suicide? Gleefully? Is this all?
And again, do none of the people driving this realize that they too are human, and the destruction they’re wreaking will engulf them and destroy them and their lives as much as the rest of us?
How many more extensions of house arrest are we getting? At this point I’m not sure this makes any sense EVEN IF HIS WERE THE BLACK PLAGUE. The continued “fake quarantine” will destroy more than death on a massive scale. Because TANSTAAFL and people will die from this in droves within a year. (Sure the deaths will be less visible. But hell, the deaths from Wu-Flu are practically nonexistent on a scale of “what the flu does every year”.)

So, what is going on here? Am I the only one screaming in the forest of fear?
WHO ARE ALL YOU ZOMBIES?"

Click to expand...

I like Sarah - she’s a personal friend of my oldest daughter - and generally I find a lot to agree with in her writing. I’m afraid she may be a little too optimistic about COVID-19, however.

Kathleen

COVID19 Perspective
@covidperspectiv

The UK's Office for National Statistics is due to release data shortly that will allegedly show all deaths in the country due to coronavirus, and not just those that have occurred in hospital - which are the figures we've known to date. These are thus expected to be higher.

Here's a quick summary:
- Initial data is for 1 week to March 20th (delayed)
- 103 deaths total due to coronavirus
- 60% male, 40% female
- 93% over the age of 65
- 59% in London & South East
- West Midlands the next hot spot, followed by North West

Health
Biotech VC Bob Nelsen called it right on the coronavirus. Now he has thoughts on therapeutics — and masks



By Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein
March 30, 2020

Dr. Fred Murphy, Sylvia Whitfield/CDC



Bob Nelsen was right.


The co-founder and managing partner of Arch Venture Partners is one of biotech’s most successful venture capitalists. He’s also deeply wary of unchecked viruses, a fear he shares regularly with friends, family, and his Twitter followers. “Flu. Get shot. Get antivirals. Don’t die,” Nelsen tweeted right before Christmas.


Most people don’t worry about viruses the way Nelsen does, so when his tweets started to take on a much darker tone in January, I paid little attention. It was just Bob being Bob.


STAT Reports: STAT’s guide to interpreting clinical trial results

“Very scary,” he warned on Jan. 20, linking to a report of human-to-human transmission of a novel coronavirus in China. A day later, he likened the emerging outbreak to the video game Plague and said he was shorting airline stocks.


And then on Jan. 31, there was this Nelsen tweet, which at the time seemed overly alarmist, but now reads eerily prescient:

Estimates: multiple sources: 500,000+ infected:China. R0 2.5-3+ Doubling time 3 days. Unprecedented speed. Fatality rate range .1-1%+: truly unknown. 2-14 day incubation. 20% diagnosed at hospital need critical care. If sustained transmission, could infect 15-20 percent world.
— Robert Nelsen (@rtnarch) January 31, 2020

Click to expand...

“By tomorrow, Bob will be living in a bunker,” I slacked to my STAT colleagues.


Sure enough, there was this Nelsen tweet in late February: A photo of his Costco shopping cart loaded with bottled water, Frosted Flakes cereal, a small generator, plastic bins, and six large bottles of Grey Goose vodka.

Look closely pic.twitter.com/zF9kIkK89N
— Robert Nelsen (@rtnarch) February 25, 2020

Click to expand...

I regret not listening to Nelsen sooner. I wanted to tell him that, and hear more about where he thought the pandemic was going and how we get out of it. Here is a condensed and lightly edited transcript of our conversation.


You were right, pretty much from the beginning, and I get the sense that you still believe the pandemic is being under-estimated and not taken seriously enough by some people.


Yeah, that one tweet that I sent out in January. That was, I still believe, pretty close to being right. I said that there were something like 500,000 infected people in China. And it was doubling in three to five days with a [case fatality rate] of 0.5 to 1. And 20% of people were in the hospital. I still believe that is probably about right. And I got that from a bunch of really smart people who were in places where they couldn’t say it publicly because it might be viewed as alarmist.


There’s a lot that is sad about all of this. Obviously, the human cost is sad and it’s only going to get sadder. The devastation in some countries that we haven’t even seen yet, like India or throughout Africa is going to be profound, I think.


And the failure of our public institutions. And even some, you know, large private institutions. I would say that complete and utter failure of almost any of us to learn the lessons from what was happening, even from city to city. It’s amazing, every city seems to repeat the errors of every other city, even in the U.S. In New York, you have [Mayor Bill] de Blasio telling everybody to go out and party on March 2nd, and people in Seattle are going. What … are you doing? Are you kidding me?


Early in the epidemic, you argued for total lockdowns of cities in order to stop the spread of the coronavirus. What did you see that worried you so much?


We know there are asymptomatic spreaders. You have to do asymptomatic quarantine or self-isolation. And even when we re-emerge, we’re going to have to figure out a way if we’re in close proximity to other people in the workplace to reduce the probability of asymptomatic spread, which means you have to test like crazy and you probably have to wear masks.


Are Americans ready to wear masks in public?


The first thing is we don’t have enough masks because the supply was never replenished. There’s plenty of criticism of the current administration that can be made and plenty of criticism of the last administration for not refilling the supply. Our bureaucracies are failing, everywhere.


So we don’t have any masks. Therefore, they’re not going to tell everybody that wearing a mask is the right thing to do. Right now, all the masks need to go to health care workers. But really, everyone in an enclosed space needs to have a mask.


The U.S. is still not testing enough people.


We need to go to a system of rapid testing, and that’s going to happen, especially with this new Abbott machine. And some of the other machines, there’s several other efforts that are happening. After that, we need really fast home antibody tests. Nobody wants to go out, anywhere. If you’re healthy you need to get confirmed that you had it. We need to figure out the extent of community spread. My guess is a lot more people have had it. And we need to get those people back to work. We need to have an app that says, you’re clear.


How do you feel about the efforts right now to develop both treatments and vaccines? One the biotech companies you helped start, Vir Biotechnology, is working on antibody-based treatment against Covid-19.


I mean, I’m biased, but I think antibodies are probably the highest probability to work. I hope some mRNA works. I think if you ask scientists, they’re more skeptical. But I hope it works, especially in populations that tend to have weak immune systems. When you get skepticism about mRNA, it tends to be, ‘Yeah, it might work in a young person, but how is it going to work in the populations at risk?’ My own gut feeling is that mRNAt works a little and I hope it works a lot. And even then, there’s a role for all of the systems.


If mRNA works, it bides us time to develop more potent, longer term vaccines. Antibodies will likely work and have the highest probability of working. There are multiple companies pursuing antibody therapy. So you hope that mRNA and antibiotic therapy start ramping up by the fall.

And antivirals?


I think we’re going to get lucky on some stuff. I don’t know that it’s any of the things we’ve been talking about yet, but it could be. The Chinese really believe in chloroquine. The Japanese believe in favipiravir but they’re not letting anybody have it.


Any thoughts on the Gilead Sciences antiviral remdesivir?


I have no idea, but if I had the virus, I would absolutely take it. I mean, I have chloroquine and if I get the virus, I’m going to take chloroquine and Kaletra. But the idea that chloroquine is the answer — I mean, you have to be really careful with some of the side effects of chloroquine.


But getting back to antibodies, you can use them as a therapy and as prophylaxis. You can imagine a system where you’re using mRNA and antibodies as a ring prophylaxis. Going after health care workers, nursing homes, retirement homes. So if we could insulate the weakest people with underlying health conditions and the weakest in our society with the prophylaxis, they would have a lot less of a problem for round two.


What is the development timeline for antibodies right now?


I think what Vir and Regeneron have said is that they will be in the clinic this summer and have something in the fall, if everything goes well.


How do we get through this pandemic?


Social distancing is number one; contact tracing and antibody testing are number two; and therapeutics in the fall are number three. And then vaccines. We’re going to be fine. And I know this because the Chinese are asking me all kinds of questions about business stuff that I don’t want to answer because we’re in the middle of a pandemic.


Arch has not shut down.


We expect to close deals in the next few weeks of at least $500 million. None are Covid-19 related.


How are you doing?


I’m driving my wife crazy because I’m Covid-19 24-7. I’m highly motivated. I live in an industry that gets a lot of [criticism], but working on this is their sense of purpose like I’ve never seen, ever, with anything else. We have a common purpose, which is a wonderful thing. I mean, it’s a scary thing and it’s a wonderful thing.

posted for fair use

marsh said:

De Blasio threatens to permanently close places of worship that resist shutdown order

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned religious leaders that their places of worship could be shut down permanently if they did not follow the city’s order to pause services during the coronavirus pandemic. “A small number of religious communities, specific churches and specific synagogues...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

De Blasio threatens to permanently close places of worship that resist shutdown order
by John Gage
| March 29, 2020 06:44 PM

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warned religious leaders that their places of worship could be shut down permanently if they did not follow the city's order to pause services during the coronavirus pandemic.
"A small number of religious communities, specific churches and specific synagogues, are unfortunately not paying attention to this guidance even though it’s so widespread," the New York Democrat said Friday at his daily press briefing.
"I want to say to all those who are preparing for the potential of religious services this weekend: If you go to your synagogue, if you go to your church and attempt to hold services after having been told so often not to, our enforcement agents will have no choice but to shut down those services," he added.
De Blasio said that continued resistance of authorities to close religious services could mean a permanent shutdown.
"If that does not happen, they will take additional action up to the point of fines and potentially closing the building permanently," he said.
The mayor issued a stay-at-home guidance this month, which includes fines and penalties for anyone in noncompliance. All nonessential businesses have been shut down in the city.
New York City has been the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States. So far, over 33,000 people have confirmed cases in the city, with nearly 700 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.

Click to expand...

Hmmmm...synagogues, churches.....but no mention of mosques? I doubt his statement was all inclusive, so, are mosques still allowed to be open and not to be prosecuted for large gatherings? Just a thought.

"If you saw that meme going around about Joe Biden and his old friend Cornflake Jackson, well, Tom Woods Show guest Roger McCaffrey, whom I quoted to you last week, is my Cornflake Jackson. If he says something, you can take it to the bank, buckeroo.

Roger just sent this out to select friends:

"Friends, this is of immense importance and bears out what was already known. But the more reputable doctors who read and understand the results, the better for those of us who contract the virus.

"The medical profession resists all new drugs—until it stops resisting. The existence of envy among specialists is as prevalent as in the general population. If they don’t discover a drug, and don’t get onto it early, they tend to envy the professionals who do.

"At any rate: the drug combo is working in countless thousands of patients—rest assured Oz has plenty of contacts and the word is out. Just not quite accurately reported in the New York Times or on CNN and the big networks. What’s good for Trump, they hate. And yet as we know, the election will not turn on the success of this drug combination."

What's Roger talking about?

This:

Dr. Mehmet Oz spoke with the doctor in charge of a French study featuring 80 patients suffering from COVID-19.

The patients were given a combination of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin. According to Dr. Didier Raoult, 65 of the 80 were back home within five days.

One patient ("an 86-year-old man who was very ill when he came," according to Dr. Oz) died during the trial.

No complications were detected.

Dr. Raoult describes himself as "very optimistic" about his findings.

Dr. Oz summarizes the results:

"At five days, these patients were basically not infectious, he argues, and they could be transferred to the ward.... On average, the mortality rate for [coronavirus] patients in France coming to the hospital was about 4%. In his case, in 80 patients, one patient died. … [Raoult] said that's not something that you can hang your hat on, but it's certainly not trending worse and it seems to be meaningfully better."

So if you wanted some good news, there's some."

9 firefighters test positive for COVID-19
by: FOX59 Web
Posted: Mar 30, 2020 / 06:10 PM EDT / Updated: Mar 31, 2020 / 07:27 AM EDT

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- The Indianapolis Fire Department says nine of its firefighters have tested positive for COVID-19.
IFD Battalion Chief Rita Reith told FOX59 those firefighters are in quarantine at their respective homes and will not return to work until they have been medically cleared by a doctor.
Reith went on to say that firefighters who may have had close contact with those who tested positive are utilizing the Eli Lilly testing program.
Once test results are in, IFD will take appropriate measures in consultation with public health officials, according to Reith.

Looking at the numbers, it's no wonder Dr. Kristina Box refused to discuss them with reporters.

Indiana hospitals prepare for surge in COVID-19 patients
by: Brett Kast
Posted: Mar 31, 2020 / 04:26 AM EDT / Updated: Mar 31, 2020 / 07:14 AM EDT

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — As of Monday, Indiana reported over 1,700 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and hospitals believe this is only the beginning.

“We believe Indiana's COVID patient surge will begin soon, and peak surge is expected to be mid-April to mid-May,” said Dr. Jennifer Sullivan, secretary of the Indiana Family and Social Services Administration.

Since March 1, Indiana has added about 500 ICU beds, bringing the total from 1,432 to 1,940. About 60% of those already in use. The goal now is for hospitals to double capacity.

“Every hospital and hospital system in Indiana has been working on a surge plan, and we have been discussing those plans as a cross sector group,” Dr. Sullivan said

Part of that plan is to transform other hospital space into ICU areas. By stopping elective surgery, other rooms and facilities can be turned into ICUs. For example, IU Health is moving more of their younger patients to Riley to make space in hospitals across the region.

“That allows us to take the neonatal intensive care and other pediatric spaces and turn those into adult intensive care spaces, and really expand our capacity for those patients,” said Dr. Chris Weaver, an emergency physician with IU Health.

Plans also call for more equipment. At the beginning of March, the state had 1,177 ventilators. The goal is double that. There is now a statewide resource pool for hospitals, who are also finding resourceful ways to make more.

“As we mentioned stopping elective surgery, that allows us to have some anesthesia machines that we can re-purpose (to) use as ventilators," Dr. Chris Weaver said. "They have that capability.”

There is also now a statewide pool of healthcare workers. Providers in other areas of practice, medical students at local schools, and even retired clinicians are being called to help. So far, more than 5,000 have stepped forward. “As we see the surge coming, we see a true surge of Hoosier kindness, love and generosity,” said Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb.

While state health officials hope none of this will be needed, they are preparing for the worst. They’re asking Hoosiers at home now to do the same.

“We said that every hospital has a disaster plan in place. Those plans include decision-making for individuals and family members," said Dr. Lindsay Weaver, chief medical officer with the Indiana State Department of Health. "It is just as important now as it always is, to talk to your family and your loved ones about what your wishes would be if you fall ill and not be able to speak for yourself. It’s time to have that conversation now.”

marsh said:

Coronavirus: U.S. Manufacturers Fear Ventilators Will be Made in China

American manufacturers fear they are being passed over for contracts to help make essential medical supplies by multinational corporations.

www.breitbart.com

Coronavirus: American Manufacturers Fear Ventilators Will be Made in China
1,175

Marco Di Lauro/Getty ImagesJOHN BINDER30 Mar 20201,270
2:55
American manufacturers fear they are being passed over for contracts to help make essential medical supplies by multinational corporations like General Motors (GM) in favor of more outsourcing to China in the midst of the Chinese coronavirus crisis.

Act (DPA) to have GM begin the production of ventilators. On Monday, Ford announced its partnership with GE Healthcare to produce 50,000 ventilators in Michigan in 100 days.

Joe Padula, the President of the Tooling, Manufacturing & Technologies Association (TMT), told Breitbart News that the roughly 250 small to medium-sized manufacturers he represents in and around southeast Michigan have yet to secure contracts to help produce supplies necessary to fighting coronavirus.

“We really feel like we’re being left out of here,” Padula said. “They’re still sourcing out of China.”

In a survey, none of the Michigan-based manufacturers — who currently supply tools and components to Ford, GM, and Chrysler — said they have been asked to supply ventilator parts by GE Healthcare, Allied Healthcare, Medtronics, or Philips. Likewise, only a couple have been approached about supplying ventilator parts by Ford or GM.

A majority of the manufacturers who responded to the survey said they have the capability of manufacturing ventilator parts. Padula told Breitbart News his members are also able to help produce masks and circuit boards but he is not aware of any confirmed contracts for them to do so.

One medical device contract manufacturer said they have not been approached by any of the leading ventilator corporations, Ford, or GM to help supply parts for ventilators.

Instead, industry insiders say corporations are still outsourcing to China, as well as India.

“They’re still trying to go out to China to make this stuff,” an industry insider told Breitbart News. “Even now, American manufacturers are a last resort.”

“They’re taking this stuff to China or Turkey or wherever is cheapest and making expensive, time-consuming ventilators,” they said.

The manufacturers point to a design released by MIT researchers that they say is viable, a ventilator for just $100. Padula said his members need contracts and purchase orders from either the federal governmentnor corporations to even begin producing these components to build the ventilators.

“All the components of the MIT design can be made by [American manufacturers],” Padula said. “To see it sourced out of China would be heartbreaking.”

Click to expand...

I know that parts are being sourced in China.

Absolutely maddening

wvstuck said:

Nothing is really shut down in North Carolina except inside dining, haircuts, tattoo parlors and health clubs. Lowes, Home Depot, WalMart, Food Lion, OfficeDepot, Uber, Lyft, Taxis, Tax Agencies, Car Dealerships, Auto Repair shops, and everything else is still business as usual. At our Chevrolet Dealership old men line up to get oil changes every morning. Having your oil changed during a pandemic is a essential service BTW.. You can't find parking spaces at Home Depot or Walmart... The places are packed. They closed the beaches so everyone is just shopping at Walmart or buying new flowers at the garden center. Unless they get serious this will never end!
View attachment 189787

Click to expand...

It's a joke. Everyone is still out and about. Friend sent me a picture from Lowe's yesterday. It looked like Black Friday. I am not sure if the people even realized that they would still be open today. My friend has a landscape supply company, they are "essential" and going to work through. I mean getting mulch right now is vital dontcha know

wvstuck said:

Nothing is really shut down in North Carolina except inside dining, haircuts, tattoo parlors and health clubs. Lowes, Home Depot, WalMart, Food Lion, OfficeDepot, Uber, Lyft, Taxis, Tax Agencies, Car Dealerships, Auto Repair shops, and everything else is still business as usual. At our Chevrolet Dealership old men line up to get oil changes every morning. Having your oil changed during a pandemic is a essential service BTW.. You can't find parking spaces at Home Depot or Walmart... The places are packed. They closed the beaches so everyone is just shopping at Walmart or buying new flowers at the garden center. Unless they get serious this will never end!
View attachment 189787

Click to expand...

Same here

frazbo said:

Hmmmm...synagogues, churches.....but no mention of mosques? I doubt his statement was all inclusive, so, are mosques still allowed to be open and not to be prosecuted for large gatherings? Just a thought.

Click to expand...

Well, if you are of the anti Muslim slant it sure would be a very stealthy way to get rid of that group.

NCGirl said:

It's a joke. Everyone is still out and about. Friend sent me a picture from Lowe's yesterday. It looked like Black Friday. I am not sure if the people even realized that they would still be open today. My friend has a landscape supply company, they are "essential" and going to work through. I mean getting mulch right now is vital dontcha know

Click to expand...

When historians look back on this they will understand the fact that Walmart and Costco are the new cruise ship vectors. Absolute madness.

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence is companied with defects in adaptive immune system in non-severe COVID-19 patients
Bing Liu, Junyan Han, Xiaohuan Cheng, Long Yu, Li Zhang, Wei Wang, Lan Ni, Chaojie Wei, Yafei Huang, Zhenshun Cheng

doi: Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence is companied with defects in adaptive immune system in non-severe COVID-19 patients
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

• Abstract
• Info/History
• Metrics
• 
  
• 
  
• Preview PDF

Abstract
Background: COVID-19 has been widely spreading. We aim to examine adaptive immune cells in non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding. Methods 37 non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence transferred to Zhongnan hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively recruited to PP (persistently positive) group, which was further allocated to PPP group (n=19) and PPN group (n=18), according to their testing results after 7 days (N=negative).

Epidemiological, demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. Data from age- and sex-matched non-severe patients at disease onset (PA [positive on admission] patients, n=37), and lymphocyte subpopulation measurements from matched 54 healthy subjects were extracted for comparison. Results Compared with PA patients, PP patients had much improved laboratory findings, including WBCs, neutrophils, lymphocytes, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin, AST, CRP, SAA, and IL-6. The absolute numbers of CD3+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and NK cells were significantly higher in PP group than that in PA group, and were comparable to that in healthy controls. PPP subgroup had markedly reduced B cells and T cells compared to PPN group and healthy subjects.

Finally, paired results of these lymphocyte subpopulations from 10 PPN patients demonstrated that the number of T cells and B cells significantly increased when the SARS-CoV-2 tests turned negative. Conclusion Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence in non-severe COVID-19 patients is associated with reduced numbers of adaptive immune cells. Monitoring lymphocyte subpopulations could be clinically meaningful in identifying fully recovered COVID-19 patients. Abbreviations COVID-19: Coronavirus disease 2019; SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; HC: Healthy controls.

competing interests, funding, and author declarations found at source
posted for fair use

jward said:

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence is companied with defects in adaptive immune system in non-severe COVID-19 patients
Bing Liu, Junyan Han, Xiaohuan Cheng, Long Yu, Li Zhang, Wei Wang, Lan Ni, Chaojie Wei, Yafei Huang, Zhenshun Cheng

doi: Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence is companied with defects in adaptive immune system in non-severe COVID-19 patients
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

• Abstract
• Info/History
• Metrics
• 
  
• 
  
• Preview PDF

View attachment 189788
Abstract
Background: COVID-19 has been widely spreading. We aim to examine adaptive immune cells in non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding. Methods 37 non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence transferred to Zhongnan hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively recruited to PP (persistently positive) group, which was further allocated to PPP group (n=19) and PPN group (n=18), according to their testing results after 7 days (N=negative).

Epidemiological, demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. Data from age- and sex-matched non-severe patients at disease onset (PA [positive on admission] patients, n=37), and lymphocyte subpopulation measurements from matched 54 healthy subjects were extracted for comparison. Results Compared with PA patients, PP patients had much improved laboratory findings, including WBCs, neutrophils, lymphocytes, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin, AST, CRP, SAA, and IL-6. The absolute numbers of CD3+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and NK cells were significantly higher in PP group than that in PA group, and were comparable to that in healthy controls. PPP subgroup had markedly reduced B cells and T cells compared to PPN group and healthy subjects.

Finally, paired results of these lymphocyte subpopulations from 10 PPN patients demonstrated that the number of T cells and B cells significantly increased when the SARS-CoV-2 tests turned negative. Conclusion Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence in non-severe COVID-19 patients is associated with reduced numbers of adaptive immune cells. Monitoring lymphocyte subpopulations could be clinically meaningful in identifying fully recovered COVID-19 patients. Abbreviations COVID-19: Coronavirus disease 2019; SARS-CoV-2: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; HC: Healthy controls.

competing interests, funding, and author declarations found at source
posted for fair use

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence is companied with defects in adaptive immune system in non-severe COVID-19 patients

Background COVID-19 has been widely spreading. We aim to examine adaptive immune cells in non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 shedding. Methods 37 non-severe patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 presence transferred to Zhongnan hospital of Wuhan University were retrospectively...

www.medrxiv.org

Click to expand...

Looks as if everybody needs to be treated whether they felt ill or not. Let us hope the "silver bullet" drug works and also prevents the 'cured' from shedding virus.

member folks, can't believe anything you're told, or read, and only half or so of what you see with your own eyes!

Sharyl Attkisson

@SharylAttkisson
3m

CBS admits crowded "New York" hospital was actually in Italy https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/03/cbs-ad

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1244974119868862464

View: https://twitter.com/SharylAttkisson/status/1244974119868862464?s=20

11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home. 11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home

jward said:

Trevor Bedford
@trvrb


A thread on #SARSCoV2 mutations and what they might mean for the #COVID19 vaccination and immunity, in which I predict it will take the virus a few years to mutate enough to significantly hinder a vaccine. 1/12

I'm writing this thread because I have a bunch of mentions talking about 100s of "strains" and no ability to vaccinate against them. I want to clarify scientific usage of strain vs mutation. 2/12

RNA viruses such as influenza mutate very rapidly. The molecular machinery they use to replicate in the body is highly error prone. 3/12

If you follow a transmission chain in which one person with flu infects another person and they infect another person and so on, you'll find that the virus mutates about once every 10 days across its genome. 4/12

Almost all of these mutations will have little to no effect on virus function. Evolution weeds out the mutations that "break" the virus and mutations that make a virus replicate better are extremely rare. 5/12

For influenza, the major driver of evolution is immunity. Mutations will occasionally appear that cause people's existing immunity to no longer protect as well against a newly emerged mutant virus. 6/12

This is why the strain used in the influenza vaccine needs to be updated by the @WHO every year. Here you can see evolution of influenza H3N2 over the past 12 years and the amount of "antigenic drift", ie evolution relevant to vaccines and immunity. nextstrain.org/flu/seasonal/h… 7/12
Importantly, this evolution takes takes place over years. When pandemic swine flu emerged in 2009, it took the virus a solid 3 years before we saw any evidence at all of antigenic drift. nextstrain.org/flu/seasonal/h… 8/12
If I had to guess, I would predict that #SARSCoV2 will behave similarly to existing seasonal coronaviruses in its ability to mutate to avoid vaccines and immunity. 9/12

Here we see that seasonal coronaviruses may behave similarly to seasonal flu in which frequent mutations to spike protein (the protein targeted by immunity) are observed (microbiologyresearch.org/content/journa…,


Genetic drift of human coronavirus OC43 spike gene during adaptive evo Coronaviruses (CoVs) continuously threaten human health. However, to date, the evolutionary mechanisms that govern CoV strain persistence in human populations have not been fully understood. In this … https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11451
). 10/12

Here's @firefoxx66's analysis of seasonal coronavirus OC43 where we see frequent mutations to spike protein. nextstrain.org/community/next… 11/12
So, my prediction is that we should see occasional mutations to the spike protein of #SARSCoV2 that allow the virus to partially escape from vaccines or existing "herd" immunity, but that this process will most likely take years rather than months. 12/12

Click to expand...

This article points out they have been working on a SARs vaccine since 2003 and stopped. Had they been successful, we might have a chance. Also that the duration of antibodies is unknown.

danielboon said:

11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home. 11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home

Click to expand...

by: Nancy Asiamah, Jada Furlow
Posted: Mar 30, 2020 / 06:58 PM EDT / Updated: Mar 31, 2020 / 08:49 AM EDT









HOLYOKE, Mass. (WWLP) – The superintendent of Holyoke Soldiers’ Home, Bennett Walsh, was put on paid administrative leave Monday, following the announcement of 11 veteran resident deaths, some of whom tested positive for COVID-19.
Department of Veterans Services spokesman Anthony Preston told 22News as of Monday, the Soldiers’ Home located at 110 Cherry Street in Holyoke had confirmed the following:

• 11 veteran resident deaths (5 tested positive for COVID-19, 5 pending test results, and 1 is unknown)
• 11 veteran residents have tested positive for COVID-19
• 25 veteran residents pending test results
• 5 staff tested positive
• Medical information regarding individual staff and veteran residents is deemed private and cannot be shared

Val Liptak, RN, CEO of Western Massachusetts Hospitals, will replace Walsh and assume responsibility for the administration of the Soldiers’ Home at this time. Preston said in accordance with CDC guidelines, the residents who tested positive or awaiting results have been isolated and staff members who had contact with them have been advised to quarantine until they are asymptomatic.
Governor Charlie Baker in a tweet on Monday said he was heartbroken by the news and that the loss of the residents to the virus is a “shuddering loss for us all.”

As someone who has visited the Holyoke Soldiers' Home on many occasions to catch up with staff and residents, I am heartbroken by today’s news. The loss of these residents to COVID-19 is a shuddering loss for us all.
— Charlie Baker (@MassGovernor) March 31, 2020

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He added that public health experts are at the Soldiers’ Home conducting a thorough review of the health status of staff and residents to plan appropriate next steps.
Health and Human Services Deputy Secretary Dan Tsai in a statement to 22News said it’s imperative the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home provides a safe environment for the veteran residents and the dedicated staff who serve them.

We have also implemented an onsite clinical command team comprised of medical, epidemiological, and operational experts responsible for the comprehensive and rapid response to the outbreak of COVID-19.
All of these enhancements will build upon the existing protocols and work that align with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Veterans Affairs, and Massachusetts Department of Public Health guidance.
Today’s actions underscore the state’s commitment to our veterans and frontline health care employees during this unprecedented public health crisis.
Dan Tsai, Health and Human Services Deputy Secretary

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On March 23, the state Department of Veteran’s Services confirmed a resident at the Soldiers’ Home tested positive for COVID-19. You can read more here. Mayor Alex Morse also released a statement expressing how devastating and grief-stricken it is to hear about the outbreak at the Soldier’s Home.
“It has been devastating to hear about the full extent of the COVID-19 outbreak at the Soldiers’ Home,” said Mayor Morse. “While I am grateful that the State is now taking swift action to ensure residents and staff get necessary care and treatment, I am grief-stricken for those we have already lost, and my heart goes out to their families and friends. The devastating impact of this virus on an individual is made worse by the limitations on their loved ones to mourn and grieve in traditional ways for those who have passed. To the families who have lost a loved one, know that all of Holyoke shares your grief. I’ve requested that flags in the City be lowered to half-mast tomorrow morning in their honor, for their service to our country, and to our community.”

This is a difficult day for our city, and it is almost certain that more difficult days will follow. Today is a painful reminder that while many people will experience mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, there are those among us who are at much higher risk, and we must be vigilant in our care for ourselves to ensure the safety of all. I call on all Holyokers to consider your actions, to be sure to follow social distancing to the best of your abilities, to contact your friends and loved ones, and to take care of yourselves both physically and mentally. While we need distance from each other now, we are in this fight together.
Secretary Sudders and her team have agreed to provide the City with frequent updates as the situation at the Soldiers Home unfolds, and I aim to continue to update the public with what we learn. It is in large part thanks to the outreach of staff from the State-run facility to my office on Saturday that I was alerted to the growing issues at the Soldiers’ Home. I want to thank Lieutenant Governor Polito and Secretary of Health and Human Services Sudders for taking immediate action upon my request, but most importantly, thank you to the nurses and staff at the Soldiers Home who cared for those whom we have lost, and who continue to care for those in need.”
Alex Morse, City of Holyoke Mayor

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On Sunday, Debra Foley the Director of Communications and Volunteer Programs of Soldiers Home in Holyoke released the following statement to 22News:

The Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke continues to fulfill its commitment to the safety and well-being of its resident Veterans while supporting the health and safety of our staff durin this unprecedented public health crisis – including meeting all federal and state health standards.

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The Massachusetts Department of Veterans stated the facility is taking additional precautionary measures that include the following:

• All visitors restricted to the facility.
• Taking the temperature of employees as they enter the building.
• Adding hand sanitation stations for employees as they enter the building and throughout the facility.
• Disinfecting and treating high touch areas throughout the day.
• Every employee receives Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as they enter the facility.
• Taking daily temperatures of the residents.
• Posting signage on proper hand hygiene and how to prevent the spread of respiratory diseases like the flu and COVID-19.
• Restricting movement of residents in the Long Term Care Facility and the Independent Living Facility.
• Sending regular communications to update veterans, families and staff on current guidance for infection control and prevention.

• 11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home
• Several residents, staff at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home test positive for COVID-19
• Statement released regarding positive COVID-19 cases at Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke
• Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke under review following COVID-19 related deaths

jward said:

by: Nancy Asiamah, Jada Furlow
Posted: Mar 30, 2020 / 06:58 PM EDT / Updated: Mar 31, 2020 / 08:49 AM EDT









HOLYOKE, Mass. (WWLP) – The superintendent of Holyoke Soldiers’ Home, Bennett Walsh, was put on paid administrative leave Monday, following the announcement of 11 veteran resident deaths, some of whom tested positive for COVID-19.
Department of Veterans Services spokesman Anthony Preston told 22News as of Monday, the Soldiers’ Home located at 110 Cherry Street in Holyoke had confirmed the following:

• 11 veteran resident deaths (5 tested positive for COVID-19, 5 pending test results, and 1 is unknown)
• 11 veteran residents have tested positive for COVID-19
• 25 veteran residents pending test results
• 5 staff tested positive
• Medical information regarding individual staff and veteran residents is deemed private and cannot be shared

Val Liptak, RN, CEO of Western Massachusetts Hospitals, will replace Walsh and assume responsibility for the administration of the Soldiers’ Home at this time. Preston said in accordance with CDC guidelines, the residents who tested positive or awaiting results have been isolated and staff members who had contact with them have been advised to quarantine until they are asymptomatic.
Governor Charlie Baker in a tweet on Monday said he was heartbroken by the news and that the loss of the residents to the virus is a “shuddering loss for us all.”

He added that public health experts are at the Soldiers’ Home conducting a thorough review of the health status of staff and residents to plan appropriate next steps.
Health and Human Services Deputy Secretary Dan Tsai in a statement to 22News said it’s imperative the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home provides a safe environment for the veteran residents and the dedicated staff who serve them.

On March 23, the state Department of Veteran’s Services confirmed a resident at the Soldiers’ Home tested positive for COVID-19. You can read more here. Mayor Alex Morse also released a statement expressing how devastating and grief-stricken it is to hear about the outbreak at the Soldier’s Home.
“It has been devastating to hear about the full extent of the COVID-19 outbreak at the Soldiers’ Home,” said Mayor Morse. “While I am grateful that the State is now taking swift action to ensure residents and staff get necessary care and treatment, I am grief-stricken for those we have already lost, and my heart goes out to their families and friends. The devastating impact of this virus on an individual is made worse by the limitations on their loved ones to mourn and grieve in traditional ways for those who have passed. To the families who have lost a loved one, know that all of Holyoke shares your grief. I’ve requested that flags in the City be lowered to half-mast tomorrow morning in their honor, for their service to our country, and to our community.”


On Sunday, Debra Foley the Director of Communications and Volunteer Programs of Soldiers Home in Holyoke released the following statement to 22News:


The Massachusetts Department of Veterans stated the facility is taking additional precautionary measures that include the following:

• All visitors restricted to the facility.
• Taking the temperature of employees as they enter the building.
• Adding hand sanitation stations for employees as they enter the building and throughout the facility.
• Disinfecting and treating high touch areas throughout the day.
• Every employee receives Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as they enter the facility.
• Taking daily temperatures of the residents.
• Posting signage on proper hand hygiene and how to prevent the spread of respiratory diseases like the flu and COVID-19.
• Restricting movement of residents in the Long Term Care Facility and the Independent Living Facility.
• Sending regular communications to update veterans, families and staff on current guidance for infection control and prevention.

• 11 veterans dead, several residents, staff exposed to COVID-19 at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home
• Several residents, staff at Holyoke Soldiers’ Home test positive for COVID-19
• Statement released regarding positive COVID-19 cases at Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke
• Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke under review following COVID-19 related deaths

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another VA center with a case....as of today, no deaths and only 20 cases recorded for the county, so hopefully that situation isn't FUBAR.

LEAVENWORTH, KS (KCTV) -- Leavenworth VA Medical Center says an employee has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

The employee will follow instructions of medical providers and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines.

After receiving this information on Sunday of a confirmed positive result, the Medical Center is collaborating with the local health jurisdiction for monitoring.


The risk of transmission to other patients and staff remains low at this time.

The Leavenworth VA Medical Center continues to screen veterans and staff who present with symptoms of fever, cough, and shortness of breath who meet the CDC criteria for evaluation of the COVID-19 virus.

IMPD says 10 officers tested positive for COVID-19
Posted: Mar 31, 2020 / 09:16 AM EDT / Updated: Mar 31, 2020 / 09:19 AM EDT

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — The Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department said 10 of its officers tested positive for the coronavirus. A total of 36 officers were tested. The other 26 tested negative.

This news comes just one day after the Indianapolis Fire Department said nine of its firefighters tested positive for COVID-19.

Ragnarok said:

Look at his eyes... He looks exhausted. The man is trying so hard. I can't even imagine where we would be today if Hillary had won...

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I'm not typing this as a joke, but an observation . . . I didn't think it was his eyes that looked tired - I honestly thought his hair showed it. Normally well styled and sprayed . . . yesterday it looked a bit bedraggled. Dr. Brix's face is REALLY showing strain (at least to me).

Just some observations . . .

HB

desertvet2 said:

... and fathers turn against sons, and daughters against mothers, brothers against......


Almighty Creator has decided.

we have been weighed and measured...we have come up short.

I hope I am wrong. but....look around. what do you see?

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BIL insists that "It is just a flu." He goes out daily. He won't wear gloves. Every time he goes out, we add another 14 days till we see him. Have't seen him since March 5.

Fair Use Cited
----------------
Kenosha-based Jockey International to produce gowns, masks for healthcare workers

By: CBS 58 Newsroom
Posted: Mar 30, 2020 10:31 PM CDT

KENOSHA, Wis. (CBS 58) -- A company with ties to Wisconsin got some attention at the White House briefing Monday.

As hospitals across the country sound the alarm on supply shortages, Jockey says it's stepping up to fill the gap.

"During WWII we made parachutes, and today we are eager to provide support for healthcare workers on the front lines of this fight," said Jockey International CEO Debra Waller.

Waller says the Kenosha-based company will produce thousands of gowns that will be used in hospitals across the country.
They'll also create thousands of masks for use by the Kenosha Fire Department.

So let me get this straight: You can't go to church in Florida without the threat of arrest and closing the church down forever but you can go to Florida to go on a cruise. Did I get that correctly?

TorahTips said:

So let me get this straight: You can't go to church in Florida without the threat of arrest and closing the church down forever but you can go to Florida to go on a cruise. Did I get that correctly?

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My understanding is that the cruise industry is now shut down except for returning ships, but someone closer to the issue may be better informed than I am.

Again, if they are going to hold services at the very least they should have to conform to whatever the temporary limit on the number of people attending is, along with six feet between worshipers.