Just nerves? He drinks out of his daughter's water and gives it back to her!!!!!
CORONA Main Coronavirus thread
- Thread starter Heliobas Disciple
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Profit of Doom
Dismember
Might look into this;
marsh
On TB every waking moment
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Death toll, infected number, how to prepare, CDC testing, reinfection, and more 14:24 min
RADIO FEBRUARY 28, 2020 This site has a video of the radio segment
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Death toll, infected number, how to prepare, CDC testing, reinfection, and more
RADIO FEBRUARY 28, 2020 This site has a video of the radio segment
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Death toll, infected number, how to prepare, CDC testing, reinfection, and more
Husband, who is actually more afraid of this than me, promised me he would wear the mask, but wouldn't wear his mask until it was time to get on the plane. <shrug> He said he was worried mostly about being on the plane rather than walking around the airport, so ok I think the whole airport is bad news but anyway... picking my battles. picking my battles
I booked him in seat 1C or 1D all the way through and he is the last on (at final boarding call) and then first off the plane wearing the mask, but then no doubt self consciously pulling it off as he exits the jetway......
marsh
On TB every waking moment
.50 min
COVID 19: This nurse creates novel way to communicate with patients
Chen Yuxi from the Jiangxi medical team has come up with a unique idea to help coronavirus patients communicate certain requirements. She has made a board highlighting specific symptoms and requirements that the patients can point out depending on their needs.
Ah MERDE!.....
2nd case of US community spread coronavirus confirmed in NorCal
A second known case of community spread novel coronavirus has been confirmed in the United States, a spokesperson for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.www.kcra.com
See Video on site
SANTA CLARA COUNTY, Calif. —
A second known case of community spread novel coronavirus has been confirmed in the United States, a spokesperson for the Centers of Disease Control said Friday.
This is the third case of the new coronavirus, or COVID-19, in Santa Clara County, officials said.
"The individual had no known exposure to the virus through travel or close contact with a known infected individual, making it the second possible instance of COVID-19 community transmission in California," the California Department of Public Health said in a statement.
The patient is an adult woman with known chronic health conditions. Health officials said she was hospitalized for difficulty breathing.
The woman's physician called the Santa Clara County health department on Wednesday night to discuss the case and to get her tested for the coronavirus. The county lab got a specimen from the patient to test Thursday morning and the got the results later that day.
“Since receiving the results (Thursday night), we’ve been working to identify the woman’s contacts and to understand who she might have exposed while contagious,” said Santa Clara health officer Dr. Sara Cody during a news conference Friday.
Cody added that the investigation is just beginning and can’t share anymore details about the case.
“This is a fluid situation but we have plans and protocols in place for public health events like this to protect the health and safety of Californians and the state’s visitors. We are actively working with the CDC, with local governments, health facilities, and health care providers across the state to respond as new cases are identified,” CDPH Director Dr. Sonia said in a statement.
The first case of community spread coronavirus was reported Wednesday. A Solano County patient “had no known exposure to the virus through travel or close contact with a known infected individual,” according to the California Department of Public Health.
__________________________
Comment: Map of N. CA. The red counties are the ones with China travelers who tested positive. Two of those are now community spreads (yellow line.) San Francisco is the green dotView attachment 184318
The patient was taken to UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, the hospital said.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Generic Firms Brace for Coronavirus-related Drug Shortages Next Summer
As the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said yesterday that it’s tracking 20 drugs that could fall into shortage (no shortages have been reported yet), generic drugmakers are predicting shortages due to the coronavirus could occur as early as June or July.
www.raps.org
Generic Firms Brace for Coronavirus-related Drug Shortages Next Summer
Posted 26 February 2020 | By Zachary Brennan
As the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said yesterday that it’s tracking 20 drugs that could fall into shortage (no shortages have been reported yet), generic drugmakers are predicting shortages due to the coronavirus could occur as early as June or July.
The predictions come as the list of 20 drugs will remain confidential and as FDA is following up with generic firms regularly, according to comments detailed in a Bernstein investor note on Wednesday.
One unidentified generic company told Bernstein that FDA’s drug shortage office has sent inquiries on molecules with four or less manufacturers and asked companies about their ability to supply on each.
But he said he did not “get a sense of panic” from FDA and that the agency seems like it is betting on the ability of generic drug supplies to last for about six months. If China comes back online in the next two months it may blow over, he said, but if the outbreak and supply issues linger for longer without a solution, FDA may get worried.
Part of the problem for FDA is that although the number of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) facilities is known in China (13% of the world’s total serving the US, by FDA’s numbers), Janet Woodcock explained last October that FDA “cannot determine with any precision the volume of API that China is actually producing, or the volume of APIs manufactured in China that is entering the U.S. market.”
Prices of some of the API and other raw materials are also beginning to increase, and patients may end up bearing the brunt of those increases.
So which drugs should consumers and others look out for? According to an op-ed last September by Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-CA) and Adam Schiff (D-CA), China produces the APIs found in almost every antibiotic and blood pressure medicine.
Rosemary Gibson, senior advisor at the Hastings Center and author of the book China Rx, told Focus that some of the generics that may fall into shortage include propofol, fentanyl, vancomycin, azithromycin, as well as some of the antihypertensives and anti-inflammatories.
According to Woodcock, FDA previously determined that there are three WHO Essential Medicines whose API manufacturers are based only in China: capreomycin and streptomycin, both indicated to treat tuberculosis; and the antibiotic sulfadiazine, used to treat the venereal infection chancroid and the bacterial eye infection trachoma.
Ciprofloxacin and doxycycline are two other drugs considered critical as medical countermeasures and used to treat anthrax and plague. FDA said the US has one facility for ciprofloxacin, versus three in China and 21 in other foreign countries. And the US has fewer facilities than China or other foreign countries for doxycycline.
Another generic firm told also Bernstein that although it has not seen any shortages yet, the two provinces where the infection is concentrated create exposure to eight of its finished products.
To help keep prices stable, generic drug manufacturer Sandoz said Wednesday that after conducting an internal assessment, it will not raise the prices of certain medicines if they may help in the treatment of coronavirus disease.
“The medications identified are priority antibiotics recommended in guidelines applicable for the management of Coronavirus Respiratory Infections: Amoxicillin oral and i.v, AmoxiClav oral and i.v., Piperacillin/Tazobactam i.v., Ceftriaxone, Clarithromycin oral and i.v., Levofloxacin aral and i.v., Meropenem, Vancomycin i.v., Gentamicin and Tigecycline,” a spokesperson said.
Certain Sandoz antivirals and hospital care products will also see their prices remain stable, including: Lopinavir/Ritonavir, Ribavarin, Oseltamivir, Atazanavir, Efavirenz, Ritonavir, Dolutegravir, Dobutamine, Ranitidine, Omeprazole i.v., Pantoprazole i.v., Heparin and Enoxaparin.
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PLEASE NOTE: It is alleged by many that the Global Times is the propoganda outlet of the Chinese gov't. So this is officially being released. This isn't woo from a conspiracy site.
www.globaltimes.cn
(fair use applies)
Autopsies offer key clues for early stage COVID-19 patients
By Leng Shumei and Zhao Yusha
Source:Global Times
Published: 2020/2/29 0:33:48
Autopsies show severe damage to COVID-19 patients' lungs and immune system, according to a doctor in Wuhan reached by the Global Times, who called for measures to prevent fibrosis of the lungs at an early stage of the disease.
"The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems," Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times on Friday.
Peng said he had just talked to Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Liu's team has reportedly conducted nine autopsies on deceased COVID-19 patients as of February 24.
"The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis," Peng noted.
If irreversible damage is done, other measures, like those to prevent patients from oxygen deficit, will not be of much use, he said.
Liu's team published a paper on an autopsy they conducted in the Journal of Forensic Medicine on Tuesday.
The paper said there was apparent damage to the patient's lungs. An excess production of mucus spilled out of the alveoli, indicating COVID-19 causes an inflammation response that damages deep airways and pulmonary alveoli.
The patient, an 85-year-old man, exhibited similar pathological changes to those caused by SARS and MERS. Fibrosis in his lungs was not as serious as was seen in SARS patients, but an exudative reaction was more apparent, possibly due to the short course of his disease.
News about the paper went viral on Chinese social media platforms on Friday.
Some news reports said that Liu's team's autopsies showed that sputum bolt is one the main reasons that caused COVID-19 patients' deaths. Some medical staff have used sputum aspirators for patients based on the results, which led to a decline by half in the number of deaths in Wuhan on Wednesday.
The National Health Commission (NHC) said Wuhan reported 42 deaths on Tuesday and 19 on Wednesday.
However, Peng doubted the reports, saying that he believes the decline was due to the improving situation and shrinking patients pool.
"Even if the autopsy results are helpful, the effectiveness would not come out so quickly. It takes at least one week to observe," Peng said.
He warned that the number of deaths may rebound as he knows many critical patients in Wuhan have held out for one month but are still in danger and could die anytime.
There were 6,775 critical patients in Wuhan as of Thursday and the number of deaths Wuhan authority reported on Thursday was 28, according to NHC.
The patient mentioned in the paper was hospitalized in January for a cerebral infraction, the death of tissue in the brain resulting from inadequate blood supply. He was confirmed to be infected with novel coronavirus 13 days later and died after a further 15 days. The autopsy was conducted within 12 hours of his death.
No apparent pathological changes were found in his digestive system, spleen or brain, the report said.
Liu's team conducted the first on February 16, about a month after the outbreak.
Liu previously told media that he and his team had proposed to the Wuhan government to conduct autopsies soon after the outbreak.
The government and local hospitals agreed on the necessity of autopsies but could not provide proper locations. They also worried about risks of viral transmission during such autopsies.
Yang Zhanqiu, deputy director of the pathogen biology department at Wuhan University, explained that preparation and risk evaluation of the autopsy of COVID-19 patients is crucial, as it may cause containment of the hospital or medical members.
Also, Chinese traditional thoughts of preserving the body of the deceased may hinder the autopsy process, which requires family consent, Yang told the Global Times.
Autopsies offer key clues for early stage COVID-19 patients - Global Times
www.globaltimes.cn
Autopsies offer key clues for early stage COVID-19 patients
By Leng Shumei and Zhao Yusha
Source:Global Times
Published: 2020/2/29 0:33:48
Autopsies show severe damage to COVID-19 patients' lungs and immune system, according to a doctor in Wuhan reached by the Global Times, who called for measures to prevent fibrosis of the lungs at an early stage of the disease.
"The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems," Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times on Friday.
Peng said he had just talked to Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Liu's team has reportedly conducted nine autopsies on deceased COVID-19 patients as of February 24.
"The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients' lungs from irreversible fibrosis," Peng noted.
If irreversible damage is done, other measures, like those to prevent patients from oxygen deficit, will not be of much use, he said.
Liu's team published a paper on an autopsy they conducted in the Journal of Forensic Medicine on Tuesday.
The paper said there was apparent damage to the patient's lungs. An excess production of mucus spilled out of the alveoli, indicating COVID-19 causes an inflammation response that damages deep airways and pulmonary alveoli.
The patient, an 85-year-old man, exhibited similar pathological changes to those caused by SARS and MERS. Fibrosis in his lungs was not as serious as was seen in SARS patients, but an exudative reaction was more apparent, possibly due to the short course of his disease.
News about the paper went viral on Chinese social media platforms on Friday.
Some news reports said that Liu's team's autopsies showed that sputum bolt is one the main reasons that caused COVID-19 patients' deaths. Some medical staff have used sputum aspirators for patients based on the results, which led to a decline by half in the number of deaths in Wuhan on Wednesday.
The National Health Commission (NHC) said Wuhan reported 42 deaths on Tuesday and 19 on Wednesday.
However, Peng doubted the reports, saying that he believes the decline was due to the improving situation and shrinking patients pool.
"Even if the autopsy results are helpful, the effectiveness would not come out so quickly. It takes at least one week to observe," Peng said.
He warned that the number of deaths may rebound as he knows many critical patients in Wuhan have held out for one month but are still in danger and could die anytime.
There were 6,775 critical patients in Wuhan as of Thursday and the number of deaths Wuhan authority reported on Thursday was 28, according to NHC.
The patient mentioned in the paper was hospitalized in January for a cerebral infraction, the death of tissue in the brain resulting from inadequate blood supply. He was confirmed to be infected with novel coronavirus 13 days later and died after a further 15 days. The autopsy was conducted within 12 hours of his death.
No apparent pathological changes were found in his digestive system, spleen or brain, the report said.
Liu's team conducted the first on February 16, about a month after the outbreak.
Liu previously told media that he and his team had proposed to the Wuhan government to conduct autopsies soon after the outbreak.
The government and local hospitals agreed on the necessity of autopsies but could not provide proper locations. They also worried about risks of viral transmission during such autopsies.
Yang Zhanqiu, deputy director of the pathogen biology department at Wuhan University, explained that preparation and risk evaluation of the autopsy of COVID-19 patients is crucial, as it may cause containment of the hospital or medical members.
Also, Chinese traditional thoughts of preserving the body of the deceased may hinder the autopsy process, which requires family consent, Yang told the Global Times.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Four new coronavirus cases in Pacific Northwest suggest community spread of the disease
California, Oregon, and Washington State reported #coronavirus cases with no travel history or known contact with another case.
www.statnews.com
Four new coronavirus cases in Pacific Northwest suggest community spread of the disease
By Helen Branswell
February 28, 2020
The new coronavirus may to be spreading in parts of the Pacific Northwest, with California, Oregon, and Washington State reporting Friday that they have diagnosed cases with no travel history or known contact with another case.
Health officials in Santa Clara County reported a case of so-called community spread late Friday afternoon — the second in the northern part of the state in the past few days.
Later on Friday health officials in Oregon reported diagnosing a case of Covid-19 — the disease the virus causes — in a person from Washington County who had neither a history of travel to a country where the virus was circulating nor close contact with a confirmed case.
And a teenager from Snohomish County, north of Seattle, was diagnosed with the disease, Washington State health authorities announced late Friday. This individual had not traveled outside the country nor had contact with a known Covid-19 case, they said.
These cases raise the specter that the virus may be spreading stealthily in the Pacific Northwest region of the country.
The discovery that the virus may be spreading in the country should not come as a surprise, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.
“It just tells us where there is testing, there are cases. And that’s what we have to understand,” Osterholm said. “There is no such thing as a barrier containment to keep these out. It’s going to happen. And what we have to do now is get on with how we’re going to deal with them.”
Health officials in Oregon said the infected individual there had spent time in a school in the Lake Oswego school district and may have exposed students and staff there. An investigation is underway and employees and families of children are being contacted, a press release from the state said.
The findings come as more and more states are starting to test for the virus. Many state and local laboratories have been unable to test for the virus until recent days, because of a problem with a test developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The discovery that the virus may be spreading in the country should not come as a surprise, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy.
“It just tells us where there is testing, there are cases. And that’s what we have to understand,” Osterholm said. “There is no such thing as a barrier containment to keep these out. It’s going to happen. And what we have to do now is get on with how we’re going to deal with them.”
As of Friday, the World Health Organization reported that there were more than 82,000 cases worldwide, from 46 countries. While most of the cases are still from China, cases elsewhere are on the rise.
The new California patient is a 65-year-old with chronic conditions who had not recently traveled outside the country and who had had no known contact with a confirmed case, health officials in Santa Clara County said.
“This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission but the extent is still not clear,” Dr. Sara Cody, health officer for Santa Clara County said. “I understand this may be concerning to hear, but this is what we have been preparing for. Now we need to start taking additional actions to slow down the spread of the disease.”
Cody said individuals need to start practicing good hand hygiene and learn to stop touching their faces — people can infect themselves if they pick up viruses off a contaminated surface, then put a finger in their mouth or rub their eyes or nose.
Families should start working on emergency planning, and schools should make plans for dealing with high levels of absenteeism, she said, adding businesses should be thinking about allowing employees to telecommute, if needed.
Santa Clara is about 90 miles from Solano County, where earlier this week the first known case of a person who was infected in the community lives. The first case, a woman, is reportedly seriously ill and on a ventilator.
Cody said an infectious diseases physician contacted the health department Wednesday about a patient she was treating. The doctor was concerned the individual might have Covid-19 and wanted to submit a sample to be tested. That was done Thursday and an investigation into the individual’s possible source of infection began Thursday evening.
The United States has reported more than 60 cases at this point. The bulk of the cases, 47, are people who were evacuated from China or from the Diamond Princess Cruise ship. There have been 15 previous cases in people who contracted the virus overseas, and three cases where people were infected in the United States. Two of those were spouses of travelers infected abroad.
Problems with a coronavirus test developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have meant that little testing for the new virus has been done in the U.S.
Worried infectious diseases experts have warned that the lack of apparent cases in the country cannot be taken as a sign the virus isn’t spreading, undetected in some places. And CDC officials have been trying to prepare the public for the likelihood that there will be some transmission of the virus in the United States.
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TB Fanatic
Some posts from the CNN newsfeed:
edition.cnn.com
(fair use applies)
Iceland confirms its first case of coronavirus
1 hr 20 min ago
Elizabeth Wells in Atlanta
An Icelandic man in his 40s who recently traveled to Italy has been infected with the coronavirus, according to Icelandic authorities.
The man traveled to Northern Italy -- where most of the coronavirus cases are centered -- but he didn't go to what authorities have termed the "designated risk zone," according to Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management.
He's now in isolation at Landspitali National University Hospital in the country's capital, Reykjavik.
He is not considered severely ill but is showing common symptoms of the virus. The government is working to trace the man’s path to see who else may be at risk of exposure.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Kim Jong Un holds meeting stressing coronavirus prevention in North Korea
Karen Smith and Jennifer Hauser in Atlanta
1 hr 59 min ago
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced steps to prevent coronavirus from spreading into North Korea during a meeting with his Workers' Party of Korea Saturday, according to state-run KCNA.
"In case the infectious disease spreading beyond control finds its way into our country, it will entail serious consequences," KNCA reported Kim as saying, "noting that the strong measures taken by our Party and the government from the beginning have been the surest and highly reliable, preemptive and decisive preventive measures as this viral infection spreads so rapidly, its incubation period is uncertain and its contagion route is also scientifically uncertain."
North Korea has not confirmed a single case of the virus inside its borders, but global health experts have warned the country is highly susceptible to an outbreak given its close proximity to China and limited medical capabilities. Every other country in East Asia has confirmed numerous cases.
On Thursday, a United Nations sanctions committee announced it had given approval for diagnostic equipment to enter North Korea to combat a potential outbreak.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are now 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Canada
Jamiel Lynch, Paula Newton and Elizabeth Joseph
2 hr 46 min ago
Canada has 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus.
The latest case is an 80-year-old man with a travel history to Egypt, according to a statement from Dr David Williams, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health. Egypt only has one reported coronavirus case.
The man arrived in Toronto on February 20, and went to the Scarborough Health Network’s emergency hospital on February 27.
The patient was cared for at the hospital and was tested and isolated while there. He was discharged home the same day and went into self-isolation, where he remains.
Most of Canada's cases are in British Columbia or Ontario, with one case in Quebec.
124 health workers at one US hospital have been forced to self-quarantine after possible coronavirus exposure
Over 120 health care workers from one hospital in California have been asked to stay home over fears they may have been exposed to a coronavirus patient.
Iceland confirms its first case of coronavirus
1 hr 20 min ago
Elizabeth Wells in Atlanta
An Icelandic man in his 40s who recently traveled to Italy has been infected with the coronavirus, according to Icelandic authorities.
The man traveled to Northern Italy -- where most of the coronavirus cases are centered -- but he didn't go to what authorities have termed the "designated risk zone," according to Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management.
He's now in isolation at Landspitali National University Hospital in the country's capital, Reykjavik.
He is not considered severely ill but is showing common symptoms of the virus. The government is working to trace the man’s path to see who else may be at risk of exposure.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Kim Jong Un holds meeting stressing coronavirus prevention in North Korea
Karen Smith and Jennifer Hauser in Atlanta
1 hr 59 min ago
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced steps to prevent coronavirus from spreading into North Korea during a meeting with his Workers' Party of Korea Saturday, according to state-run KCNA.
"In case the infectious disease spreading beyond control finds its way into our country, it will entail serious consequences," KNCA reported Kim as saying, "noting that the strong measures taken by our Party and the government from the beginning have been the surest and highly reliable, preemptive and decisive preventive measures as this viral infection spreads so rapidly, its incubation period is uncertain and its contagion route is also scientifically uncertain."
North Korea has not confirmed a single case of the virus inside its borders, but global health experts have warned the country is highly susceptible to an outbreak given its close proximity to China and limited medical capabilities. Every other country in East Asia has confirmed numerous cases.
On Thursday, a United Nations sanctions committee announced it had given approval for diagnostic equipment to enter North Korea to combat a potential outbreak.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There are now 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Canada
Jamiel Lynch, Paula Newton and Elizabeth Joseph
2 hr 46 min ago
Canada has 16 confirmed cases of coronavirus.
The latest case is an 80-year-old man with a travel history to Egypt, according to a statement from Dr David Williams, Ontario's Chief Medical Officer of Health. Egypt only has one reported coronavirus case.
The man arrived in Toronto on February 20, and went to the Scarborough Health Network’s emergency hospital on February 27.
The patient was cared for at the hospital and was tested and isolated while there. He was discharged home the same day and went into self-isolation, where he remains.
Most of Canada's cases are in British Columbia or Ontario, with one case in Quebec.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
US military scrambles to cope with global 'threat' posed by coronavirus | CNN Politics
In a striking contradiction to White House assertions that the coronavirus is under control, the Pentagon's chief of personnel is sharply warning that the virus poses an increased "threat" in areas where US troops and defense personnel are located around the globe.
www.cnn.com
US military scrambles to cope with global 'threat' posed by coronavirus
By Barbara Starr and Nicole Gaouette, CNN
Updated 12:48 AM ET, Sat February 29, 2020
In a striking contradiction to White House assertions that the coronavirus is under control, the Pentagon's chief of personnel is sharply warning that the virus poses an increased "threat" in areas where US troops and defense personnel are located around the globe.
In a February 25 memo, Matthew Donovan, who is filling the top personnel job on a temporary basis, informed the military's most senior leaders that as the novel coronavirus continues to spread, it is "an increasing force health protection (FHP) threat in areas where Department of Defense (DoD) personnel live and work."
CNN has learned that top US commanders around the globe are increasingly concerned that as allies shut down borders and travel in response to the virus' spread, there's a risk that by the end of March, US military readiness may start degrading, according to several defense officials.
The military leaders' concerns and Donovan's memo are the latest signs that the virus is becoming a national security challenge. It is affecting the military, curtailing diplomats' movements, straining global supply chains and shaking the US economy, which saw stock markets drop more in the past week than they have since the economic crisis of 2008.
Rapid response
A key joint military training exercise has been canceled in South Korea, while the Pentagon is sending additional medical and lab personnel, doctors and nurses to support US forces on the peninsula.
Navy ships that have stopped at Pacific ports recently have been ordered to stay out at sea for two weeks in a self-quarantine to allow time to observe whether any sailors have picked up the virus. A US service member in South Korea has tested positive for coronavirus, and US Forces Korea confirmed the service member's spouse has also tested positive. Four total US Forces Korea-related individuals have been confirmed to have the virus.
At US Army installations in Vicenza, Italy, commanders have restricted access to public areas such as church, gyms and childcare centers and ordered extra Meals Ready to Eat in case they have to quarantine.
In the Middle East, United States Central Command, which overseas operations and bases there, has canceled all liberty and leave.
With coronavirus now present in 55 countries, infecting almost 84,000 and killing nearly 3,000, the Trump administration's fitful, uncoordinated response is raising questions, particularly among public health and security experts who note that just last year, the intelligence community and the White House flagged the need to prepare for the disruptive risk of a major disease outbreak.
"If you go and look at the National Biodefense Strategy, the National Security Strategy or the new National Defense Strategy, any one of those documents point to this and acknowledge that these outbreaks have the potential, if not managed properly, to be destabilizing," said J. Steven Morrison, who directs the global health policy center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"They can overwhelm society, overwhelm health systems, have crippling economic consequences and stability issues, they can obviously strike at [military] readiness, trigger mass migration," Morrison said.
The national security risk of a disease outbreak is highlighted on page eight of the Trump administration's National Security Strategy. The intelligence community's Worldwide Threat Assessment, issued January 2019, said that the US and the world "will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, ... increase calls on the United States for support" and destabilize fragile states.
Other intelligence assessments note that "the relationship between disease and political instability is indirect but real," and that US military forces deployed in support of humanitarian and peacekeeping operations in developing countries are at highest risk.
Greg Treverton -- a former chair of the US National Intelligence Council, an office within the US intelligence community -- said that during one exercise a decade ago to evaluate the level of various threats, including terrorism, the only one that ranked as "existential" was a pandemic. "The national security implications are potentially very big," said Treverton, a founder of Global TechnoPolitics Forum conference, which partners with the GeoTech Center from the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank.
"It has already wreaked havoc with markets and supply chains -- that has national security implications because the economy is critical," Treverton said.
Disruptions to US military and diplomats -- America's eyes and ears overseas -- are already clear.
The State Department has been raising restrictions on US government employees in China since late January and has ordered the departure of all family members under the age of 21. In February, the department allowed for the voluntary departure of US government employees and their families from Hong Kong.
One administration source tells CNN there are currently discussions about ordering the departure of some US diplomats and their families in South Korea and Japan, but no final decision has been made.
In Asia, two US diplomats tell CNN they haven't been told about those very early stage talks, but are on edge, waiting to see not only how the virus spreads, but how their host countries and Washington respond. There is concern about the economic impact on US businesses if the White House moves to restrict travel from Japan or South Korea to the US, the diplomats tell CNN.
Government messaging both to employees and the broader public is an essential part of a national security response, said Nada Bakos, a national security expert and former CIA analyst.
"A pandemic can induce fear-based individual behavioral changes, similar to reactions to terrorist attacks and not all behavior changes are productive," Bakos told CNN, adding that clear, transparent communication about risks and prevention can "make a big difference in how accurately a threat is perceived."
"The public can't adequately prepare without clear guidance and confidence in their government," Bakos said. "Without clear communication, political stability is stressed and the situation can spark violence between authorities and citizens. Failure to utilize national security frameworks to address a pandemic may have severe human and economic costs."
Treverton said that while he thinks "the administration has done OK," President Donald Trump "by being so Pollyannaish about it, I think he hasn't prepared people for what might come."
'This is moving pretty quickly'
Defense Secretary Mark Esper told the House Armed Services committee Wednesday that US Northern Command has been put in charge of synchronizing the department's Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Disease plans, coordinating with other commands to assess potential impacts.
Esper also said that he has not yet held talks about whether the Defense Department will need additional funding from Congress to meet the coronavirus threat, saying he would have to discuss that with the combatant commanders first.
"This is moving pretty quickly," he told lawmakers.
Already, US military planners are quietly trying to figure out if the regular rotations of tens of thousands of personnel can take place this spring and summer, a routine occurrence that could be complicated as countries begin to shut down their borders.
Trump seeks a 'miracle' as virus fears mount
Thousands of personnel worldwide usually change assignments mid-year, often as soon as the school year ends. If they and their families cannot readily travel overseas to new jobs, and troops currently overseas cannot rotate, this could lead to further turmoil and uncertainty in the military personnel system officials say.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley assured the House committee that the department is "taking all the appropriate measures right now," adding that estimates of the situation were underway. "We owe you some answers," Milley said.
Not waiting
But field commanders are not waiting to request supplies or take action.
Approximately 70 additional US military medical personnel -- doctors, nurses and medical technicians -- will now deploy to US installations in South Korea, one official said. They will provide clinical care and laboratory support, but their main mission will be to help test military, dependents and contractor personnel for the coronavirus once test kits arrive from the CDC.
Several officials say it still is not clear when those kits will arrive even though the outbreak in South Korea has grown in recent days.
Liberty -- the ability of troops to leave their bases -- is being heavily restricted in the Persian Gulf region by US Central Command. Steps by host countries in the Middle East are also affecting US troops.
With the land border heavily restricted between Iraq and Kuwait, all resupply of forces in Iraq will now be done by air.
And more than 60 US personnel who traveled to Israel for an exercise to train against regional threats such as Iran began returning to their bases in Europe on Friday at the request of the Israeli government, although none of them were reported to be ill.
The head of US European Command, Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, told the Senate Tuesday that they are carefully monitoring the infection's impact and anticipate an increase of coronavirus cases in Germany that could lead to restricted troop movement. The lockdowns in Vicenza could be extended as well, he said.
Major exercise under threat
In addition, the virus could affect the Pentagon's decision to proceed with a lengthy upcoming exercise, involving as many as 20,000 troops training against a Russian threat.
Privately, defense officials say that as these long-planned US military exercises are postponed or canceled, troops will be less up to date on critical training for future operations. Publicly, Pentagon officials are not discussing details of how training and operations could be impacted.
A specially commissioned National Intelligence Estimate in 2000 identified exactly this kind of fallout. Possibly the first to look at the threat posed by infectious outbreaks, it predicted that, "these diseases will endanger US citizens at home and abroad, threaten US armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests."
Morrison told CNN that for the past few decades, national security professionals have recognized that the dangers of infectious diseases have been growing, a dynamic, the intelligence community's 2019 threat assessment also noted.
That report said tenuous improvements to global health security -- which the administration has moved to defund -- "may be inadequate to address the challenge of what we anticipate will be more frequent outbreaks of infectious diseases because of rapid unplanned urbanization, prolonged humanitarian crises, human incursion into previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade, and regional climate change."
Morrison pointed to health scares such as SARS, Ebola, swine flu and Zika that have erupted in the last few years.
"The more that the global economy gets interconnected, the higher those consequences become," Morrison said. "We can predict to some degree we're going to see these [events happen] with greater frequency, higher velocity and come with a higher human and economic impact."
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
(URGENT) S. Korea reports 1st case of person reinfected with new coronavirus | Yonhap News Agency
sam@yna.co.kr
(URGENT) S. Korea reports 1st case of person reinfected with new coronavirus
All Headlines 14:43 February 29, 2020
(END)
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Coronavirus: central Chinese city of Wuhan targets price gougers
Deputy mayor says vendors in nearly 300 cases ordered to rectify charges for their goods; metropolis has enough food for a month.
www.scmp.com
Coronavirus: Infections rise in China and South Korea, as Seoul reports nearly 3,000 cases
Sarah Zheng , Teddy Ng , Gigi Choy , Echo Xie and Liu Zhen
Published: 10:24am, 29 Feb, 2020 | Updated: 2:20pm, 29 Feb, 2020
- Chinese manufacturing activity also plunged in February, in the first official confirmation of the economic impact of the outbreak
- New infections in South Korea exceeded China’s for the third straight day
It was a day after China’s National Health Commission reported a record low in new infections for February, at 327. Only four new cases were recorded outside Hubei province – where Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus emerged – the lowest figure recorded outside the province since January 23, when lockdowns and other massive emergency measures were implemented.
A further 47 new deaths were reported in China, bringing the total to 2,835. Mainland China has now recorded 79,251 infections, with 39,002 patients recovered. In South Korea, the total number of infections has reached 2,931.
Coronavirus hits Chinese economy
The first official economic data confirmed fears that the Chinese economy has been badly hit by the coronavirus, with a February plunge in manufacturing activity.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slowed to 35.7, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday, having slipped to 50.0 in January when the full impact of the coronavirus was not yet evident.
A PMI reading of 50 marks the point between expansion and contraction.
‘Don’t discriminate’ China says to Russia
China has responded to reports that its citizens are being targeted in Russia’s hardline precautions against the coronavirus, with a reminder to Moscow of the close political and military ties between the two countries in recent years.
The Chinese embassy in Russia said on Friday that there should be “no discrimination” against its citizens and that measures applied to Chinese living in the country should be “moderate”.
“We hope the measures will be in line with the friendship and the high-level relationship of China and Russia,” an embassy spokesman said.
Virus’ link between bats and humans still unknown
The World Health Organisation published a report on Friday which said bats appeared to be the reservoir for the new coronavirus, but the intermediate host which transmitted the disease to humans has not yet been identified.
The report – prepared by a joint mission of 25 national and international experts, as well as the WHO – said more than 2,000 health care workers from 476 hospitals across China had contracted the illness, but added hospitals were not major centres for transmission.
Military exercises suspended
China’s defence ministry has said some major military exercises will be suspended because of the coronavirus.
“Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, the military has been focused on epidemic prevention and control on the one hand, and military training and war preparation on the other, seeking to minimise the impact to our military training,” spokesman Wu Qian said on Saturday.
No details were provided of what exercises would be affected as part of the adjustment to the annual training schedule.
US raises travel warning for Iran, Italy
The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has raised the travel advisory for Italy and Iran to Warning Level 3, recommending travellers avoid all non-essential travel to those countries due to “limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas”.
South Korea and China are in the same category, but the CDC’s advice does not apply to Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan.
Italy is Europe’s worst-affected country, while Iran has the highest coronavirus death toll outside China.
China offers help to Tehran, Rome
Test kits, medical supplies and a team of infectious disease experts have been offered by China to Iran, where the numbers of infections and deaths continue to surge, with 388 total infections and 34 deaths reported, as of Friday.
Iran’s health ministry denied a report by BBC Persian that at least 210 people in the country had died from the new coronavirus.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has spoken to his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif by telephone and said China was willing to help Iran by sending test kit and medical supplies.
Global Times, a nationalist newspaper affiliated to Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily, reported that China would be sending a team of four infectious disease experts to Iran.
Wang also spoke with Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio on Friday to offer Chinese aid to Italy over the outbreak, including cooperation on medicine and vaccine development and exchanges for epidemic prevention and controls.
Italy has the highest number of cases in Europe, with a death toll of 21, as of early on Saturday, and confirmed cases growing to 888 from 650 one day earlier.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Iran outbreak raises fears of mass Middle East contagion
Iran has confirmed 388 cases of coronavirus and 34 deaths, with dozens of cases in other the Middle East countries linked to people who travelled to Iran.
www.scmp.com
Coronavirus: Iran outbreak raises fears of mass Middle East contagion as pilgrims and workers move across borders
John Power
Published: 11:00pm, 28 Feb, 2020 | Updated: 5:33am, 29 Feb, 2020
- Iran has confirmed 388 virus cases and 34 deaths, with dozens of cases in neighbouring countries linked to people who travelled to Iran
- Saudi Arabia has banned foreigners from making pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina to halt the further spread of the virus
Iranian health authorities have confirmed 34 deaths, the highest death toll outside China, and 388 cases, most of them in the holy city of Qom, a popular destination for Shiite pilgrims and scholars.
After insisting the country was free of the virus as recently as the start of last week, health authorities confirmed the first cases on February 19, after the deaths of two elderly patients from the coronavirus,
which causes the disease officially known as Covid-19.
The Middle East is considered to be at major risk of a mass outbreak because of the constant movement of pilgrims and workers across borders, weak governance in many countries, and questions about the capacity of local health care systems to handle a surge in infections. Dozens of cases among people who have travelled to Iran have already emerged in Lebanon, Bahrain, Afghanistan, Oman, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Pakistan.
“Due to Iran’s geographical positioning as a crossroads in the Middle East, the Covid-19 virus has already spread to Iran’s neighbouring countries, and if Iran doesn’t act proactively, there is a big risk for the virus to travel more intensely far and beyond,” said Asif Shuja, a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.
Saudi Arabia, the location of the two holiest cities in the Islamic world, Mecca and Medina, which attract millions of worshippers each year, said on Thursday that it was suspending pilgrimages to halt the further spread of the virus.
Turkey, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Armenia have all closed their borders to Iran or introduced restrictions on travellers.
Iranian President Hassan Rowhani this week ruled out quarantining affected cities and regions, but authorities have flagged restrictions at Shiite holy sites that attract millions of pilgrims each year.
Parvaiz A Koul, an infectious diseases expert at the Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences in Srinagar, India, said he believed it was only a matter of time before the virus crossed borders in the Middle East on a grand scale with “disastrous consequences”.
“Poor public health capacity, ill-compensated and uninterested health care workers, inappropriate emphasis on the right measures, wishful thinking, illiterate populace and the like seem challenges for the authorities and despite their efforts, the measures may simply not be enough,” said Koul.
The growing fears of a major outbreak across the region come ahead of the haj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, in July. The pilgrimage last year attracted some 2.5 million pilgrims from all over the world, including nearly 90,000 worshippers from Iran.
But this year’s haj is threatened by Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it was taking “proactive preventive measures to prevent the arrival of the new coronavirus” by banning foreigners from Mecca and Medina.
“I believe if the cases do not abate in the countries from where pilgrims originate, it might call for a forced stoppage of the pilgrims from attending the haj,” said Koul, who described the pilgrimage as the “ideal environment” for the spread of the virus.
Although Iran has confirmed relatively few cases of the virus, the high fatality rate in the country – with about one in 10 people succumbing there compared to one in 50 in China, where more than 78,000 people have taken ill – has fuelled suspicion that the extent of the outbreak may be far greater than official figures suggest.
In a study published this week by medRxi, a website that publishes research that has not yet been subject to peer review, a group of Canadian scientists estimated the number of cases in Iran could be upwards of 18,000, basing their analysis in part on cases linked to Iran in other countries.
“This elevated fatality rate could be due to the strain put on their health infrastructure, but it is more likely that only the severe cases are being detected, in which case we may see continued spread throughout the country and region,” said Jeremy Rossman, a lecturer in virology at the University of Kent. “It is too early to tell for sure at this point.”
Rossman added that health care systems across the region appeared to be coping, but would struggle if localised transmission began emerging as it has in China.
The sudden spike in cases in Iran has led internet users in the country and outside observers to accuse authorities of mishandling and even covering up the extent of the outbreak, only weeks after thousands marched in Tehan to demand the resignation of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the military’s downing of an Ukrainian airliner and its initial denials of responsibility.
Critics have accused Tehran of playing down the outbreak to avoid disruption to last week’s parliamentary elections, which had the lowest turnout since the 1979 Islamic revolution – an outcome Khamenei blamed on “negative propaganda” about the virus by enemy countries– and bungling the opportunity to contain the virus by not immediately halting flights with China.
“The Iranian political elite were too busy in the parliamentary elections as they were worried about a lower voter turnout threatening their legitimacy and this may have caused them to overlook as well as underplay the threat due to Covid-19,” said Shuja from the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.
In a stark illustration of the government’s credibility issues, deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi and vice-president Masoumeh Ebtekar, President Rowhani’s deputy for women’s affairs, are among seven government officials to have tested positive for the virus.
Harirchi earlier this week held a press conference while visibly ill during which he denied any attempt to cover up the outbreak, only to announce the following day that he himself had been infected.
Kamiar Alaei, an Iranian doctor and co-founder of the Institute for International Health and Education in Albany, New York state, noted that authorities had only announced the first cases of the virus after the death of two patients, “which means they had already been infected for a week or so, but the government didn’t admit that they were infected.”
“In the next several weeks, we will have a lot of new cases in Iran,” Alaei added.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Saudi Arabia halts travel to Islam’s holiest site over coronavirus fears
Extraordinary decision by Saudi Arabia stops foreigners from reaching the holy city of Mecca and the Kaaba, the cube-shaped structure the world’s 1.8 billion Muslims pray toward five times a day.
www.scmp.com
Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia halts travel to Islam’s holiest site to prevent spread
Published: 1:04pm, 27 Feb, 2020 | Updated: 3:51pm, 27 Feb, 2020
- Decision comes as growing number of cases outside China deepened fears of a pandemic
- It was unclear if the haj pilgrimage, which is scheduled to begin in late July, would be impacted
Saudi Arabia on Thursday halted travel to the holiest sites in Islam over fears about a new viral epidemic just months ahead of the annual haj pilgrimage, a move coming as the Middle East has over 220 confirmed cases of the illness.
The extraordinary decision by Saudi Arabia stops foreigners from reaching the holy city of Mecca and the Kaaba, the cube-shaped structure the world’s 1.8 billion Muslims pray toward five times a day. It also said travel was suspended to Prophet Muhammad’s mosque in Medina.
The decision showed the worry about the outbreak potentially spreading into Saudi Arabia, whose oil-rich monarchy stakes its legitimacy on protecting Islam’s holy sites. The epicentre in the Middle East’s most-affected country, Iran, appears to be in the holy Shiite city of Qom, where a shrine there sees the faithful reach out to kiss and touch it in reverence.
“Saudi Arabia renews its support for all international measures to limit the spread of this virus, and urges its citizens to exercise caution before travelling to countries experiencing coronavirus outbreaks,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement announcing the decision. “We ask God Almighty to spare all humanity from all harm.”
Disease outbreaks always have been a concern surrounding the haj, required of all able-bodied Muslims once in their life, especially as pilgrims come from all over the world. The earliest recorded outbreak came in 632 as pilgrims fought off malaria. A cholera outbreak in 1821 for instance killed an estimated 20,000 pilgrims. Another cholera outbreak in 1865 killed 15,000 pilgrims and then spread worldwide.
More recently, Saudi Arabia faced a danger from a related coronavirus that caused Middle East respiratory syndrome, or Mers. The kingdom increased its public health measures in 2012 and 2013, though no outbreak occurred.
While millions attend the 10-day haj, this year set for late July into early August, millions more come during the rest of the year to the holy sites in the kingdom.
The virus that causes the illness named Covid-19 has infected more than 80,000 people globally, mainly in China. The hardest-hit nation in the Middle East is Iran, where 22 have died amid 141 confirmed cases, according to the state-run IRNA news agency on Thursday.
Experts are concerned Iran may be under-reporting cases and deaths, given the illness’s rapid spread from Iran across the Persian Gulf. For example, Iran still has not confirmed any cases in Mashhad, even though a number of cases reported in Kuwait are linked to the Iranian city.
In Bahrain, which confirmed 33 cases as of Thursday morning, authorities halted all flights to Iraq and Lebanon. It separately extended a 48-hour ban over flights from Dubai and Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, through which infected travellers reached the island kingdom off the coast of Saudi Arabia.
Iranian President Hassan Rowhani said there were no immediate plans to quarantine cities but acknowledged it may take “one, two or three weeks” to get control of the virus in Iran.
As Iran’s 80 million people find themselves increasingly isolated in the region by the outbreak, the country’s sanctions-battered economy saw its currency slump to its lowest level against the US dollar in a year on Wednesday.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Southeast Asian supply chains feel the squeeze from Covid-19
Construction in Singapore, garlic in Indonesia and lobsters in Australia: all have been hit as the coronavirus wreaks havoc on the region’s supply chains.
www.scmp.com
Coronavirus: Southeast Asian supply chains feel the squeeze from Covid-19
Kok Xinghui and Dewey Sim
Published: 12:30pm, 29 Feb, 2020 | Updated: 2:47pm, 29 Feb, 2020
- Construction in Singapore, garlic in Indonesia and lobsters in Australia: all have been hit by the supply chain havoc caused by the coronavirus
- Singapore learned the need to diversify years ago, but do others really have any other option than relying on China?
For Kenneth Loo, chief operating officer and executive director of Straits Construction in Singapore, the coronavirus outbreak is posing a headache on two fronts: his pipeline of workers and construction materials.
Loo estimates that although mainland Chinese workers comprise under 10 per cent of the construction industry’s workforce in Singapore, companies rely on them to do higher-skilled structural and architectural works.
Meanwhile, much of the construction materials in Singapore also come from China. “The tiles, the aluminium, doors, metal work, moulds for precasting … We’re worried we won’t get our supplies because our dependency on the Chinese is significant,” Loo said.
Since the Covid-19 outbreak started in China in late December, Chinese cities have been locked down, with workers stuck in their homes. Factories are slowly limping back into production, but analysts from investment bank Nomura – gauging pollution levels to determine the productivity of factories – estimate that the worker return rate for 15 cities was just 25.6 per cent as of February 19.
In addition, Chinese migrant workers who work in other parts of the world are also unable to return to their host countries as they restrict entry or slap quarantine orders on anyone who has recently travelled to China.
Globally, the coronavirus has resulted in more than 83,000 infections and 2,800 deaths. While the bulk of both infections and deaths have occurred in China, countries including South Korea, Italy, Japan and Iran have seen an alarming spike in cases, leading to even more travel bans. Israel has stopped the entry of travellers who have been to either Korea or Japan, and Turkey and Pakistan have temporarily closed their land borders with Iran.
SHUTTING THE DOORS
Singapore was one of the first countries to implement a travel ban on January 29 when it restricted entry to travellers from Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak. Starting February 1, the restriction was extended to all travellers who had been to China, and this past week it was expanded to anyone coming from Daegu city and Cheongdo county in Korea.
Singapore’s restrictions applied to about 30,000 Chinese workers who had returned to China for the Lunar New Year break in January, and now these workers have to apply for permission to return in staggered batches, leaving employers like Loo juggling to maintain a viable workforce.
“If we depend on one subcontractor and he doesn’t have workers, we’ll have to look for alternative subcontractors” to take over some of the company’s building projects, Loo said, adding that this means paying more in labour costs to meet construction deadlines.
The situation is not unique to Singapore. Indonesia has about 30,000 Chinese workers employed in various plants and businesses in the country. Nickel miner PT Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, for example, has about 5,000 Chinese workers, of whom about 100 had returned to China for the Lunar New Year. Since the outbreak, they have been barred from entering Indonesia and the company has also stopped hiring new Chinese workers. Singapore construction companies said they were also losing Bangladeshi workers who were either leaving Singapore or choosing to give the country a wide berth because five Bangladeshi workers employed by an aerospace park worksite had contracted the virus. Singapore has reported more than 90 infections so far.
An owner of nickel and zinc mining and smelting assets in Indonesian also said he was facing a few months’ losses because only Chinese workers had been trained to use his ore smelters and they were stuck in China because of travel bans.
Lim, who owns a recruitment agency supplying foreign workers to the constructor sector and asked to be identified by his surname, said there has been a 20 to 30 per cent drop in workers applications this past month.
Most Singapore businesses expect the labour impact to ease once China has contained the outbreak and travel restrictions are lifted, but for now they are left to struggle through their supply chain issues.
CARGO, LOBSTERS AND GARLIC
In Myanmar, the typically busy office of Winner Global Logistics Services has workers sitting idle. The usual trading deals they discuss and close with regularity are no longer happening.
The 200-plus containers of cargo they dealt with each month had dwindled to just 40 since the outbreak, said the company’s general manager, Aung Myo Zaw. Now, he said, “I just want to go back to normal.”
The Philippines also has not been spared a drop-off, with the total volume of containers from China falling by 62.5 per cent in the first 18 days of February. Christine Pardinas, president of the Supply Chain Management Association of the Philippines, told local media that a “good percentage” of the Philippines’ imported goods and raw materials came from China, and that there would be a significant impact on manufacturers, distributors and retailers.
Lesser supply chain concerns include Indonesia’s fear that China, which supplies 90 per cent of Indonesia’s imports of garlic, would cut its supply of the product. Those worries caused garlic prices to shoot up 70 per cent in just a week. Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw toilet paper fly off store shelves
and even an armed toilet-paper heist on fears supplies from China would come to a halt.
OCBC economist Wellian Wiranto said about the rash of issues: “When you think about it, it is staggering how dependent our daily lives and broader economies have become on supply chains working smoothly.”
Wiranto said that even if countries were not directly dependent on goods from China, their other source countries still used raw materials from the mainland.
For clothing retailer Uniqlo, for example, China is home to half of its core sewing factories, while 20 per cent of its factories are in Vietnam– but the Vietnam factories still get most of their raw materials from China.
China is also a key supplier of apple juice and vitamin C – basic ingredients made in bulk for other companies to turn into effervescent drinks or tablets, said CIMB Private Banking economist Song Seng Wun.
Worse, the impact on the supply chain has been cutting both ways. With China stopping imports of lobsters amid the virus outbreak, Australia’s lobster industry has seen prices drop 50 to 80 per cent.
Meanwhile, goods from Thailand have been piling up in Chinese ports because of a lack of ground transport. Major Thai exports to China include rubber, cassava, frozen and dried fruits, frozen chicken, and mobile phone screens. “Rubber blocks and other processed rubber products used in producing car tyres and gloves have seen a halt in orders and many in the [Thai] rubber industry are having cash-flow problems,” said Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council.
A CLOSER LOOK AT SOURCING
As countries brace themselves for the full economic impact of the virus, one country has its eye on the future. Singapore’s Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing said the country had a two-pronged line of attack for dealing with the virus: a S$6.4 billion (US$4.7 billion) war chest to help companies and individuals through the economic storm, and a plan to ensure the city state would be first out of the gate towards full recovery.
The plan involved having Singapore businesses re-examine their labour and material supply chains to “make sure that we’re never held to ransom by a single source or a single market”, Chan said at a meeting with business leaders on Wednesday.
Singapore learned a similar lesson in 2007, when the construction sector – then reliant on Indonesia for 90 per cent of its sand – nearly came to a standstill after Indonesia banned sand exports to the republic. With a new train line and the two integrated resorts in the works, the government released its national stockpile of sand to the market and bore 75 per cent of the price hike of sand for public projects.
Since then, the government has made it mandatory for the sector to diversify its sources of sand.
Chan said at the business meeting that the Singapore government wanted to delve deeper and examine where the suppliers of Singapore businesses got their raw material from. “We’re not just talking about the first layer of the supply chain, we’re even going into the second, third layer to look at where the components form that supply chain in order for us to have a really resilient supply chain for our respective businesses,” said Chan.
“If the supply chain breaks, even if it’s the smallest part, it disrupts the entire supply chain.”
THE BOOMERANG EFFECT
What is unclear is how much countries really can diversify their sourcing, given that China is the top supplier of intermediate goods for many countries. China’s size, broad-based supply chain, and infrastructure provisions made it an “unmissable market for most”, said Wiranto.
Half of Vietnam’s imports come from China, Korea and Japan; almost half of Korea’s come from China, Japan and the United States; while over 20 per cent of Malaysia’s imports are from China.
Raw materials aside, there is also a fear that the rapid spread of the coronavirus outside China will affect other supply chains. “Businesses might be looking at alternatives from Vietnam, but as the virus becomes more global over recent days, even supply chains which they thought are safe from interruptions could be disrupted,” said Song, the CIMB economist.
Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at OCBC Bank, warned some of the impact would only show up later. “You may not directly feel it, but it will boomerang back and hit you because it will show up in growth numbers and trade numbers going forward.”
The Economist Intelligence Unit has predicted that global real GDP growth will dip below 2.5 per cent this year, from 3 per cent in 2019.
Loo, the Straits Construction COO, hoped the impact would not be as long-lasting as some predicted. His company was digging into its stockpile of construction material, and new orders had just left Chinese ports for Singapore after a lengthy delay. “In a couple of weeks’ time, we’ll have a clearer picture of where the gaps [are],” he said. “With China starting work now, maybe everything will get back to normal by April or May.”
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
There's an interesting twitter page set up for people complaining that they think they may have COVID but can't get tested. I'm not copying over any of the tweets because they are anecdotal and there's no way to verify if the person is telling the truth (vs lying to get attention.) The ones I read seemed truthful, but it social media so everyone should use their own discernment and judgment for themselves.
Here's the link to the page:
twitter.com
Here's the link to the page:
#CDCwonttestme hashtag on Twitter
On Mar 10 @kim tweeted: "@A_Rosie_Life @GOPLeader @VP The chart d.." - read what others are saying and join the conversation.
twitter.com
Ragnarok
On and On, South of Heaven
*cough* *cough* *bullshit* *cough* *cough*
jed turtle
a brother in the Lord
Almost sounds like when multiple arsonists set out to destroy a countryside as in a war.
Ragnarok
On and On, South of Heaven
And, there is the reality we all live in at the moment...
bcingu
Senior Member
Corona Virus the truth
run time 40:17
1:40 The Pope is sick
2:00 Explanation of the virus and review of U.S. statements
3:47 Police riot control Ukraine. Pakistan, and China
4:40 Haz mat team picking up a victim in a mall Italy
5:28 Haz mat team Barcelona Spain
5:40 Haz Mat team Kuwait
6:00 Family fighting with haz mat team collecting sick for quarantine China
7:50 Israel bans flights to and from infected countries ans public gatherings
9:22 Haz mat team digging holes and disposing bodies Iran
10:30 Firetruck spraying disinfectant on sidewalks and store fronts Iran
11:00 Haz mat team using blower to disinfect school children Iran
11:12 Empty grocery store S. Korea
11:40 Empty Grocery store Milan
12:39 No mask Iran
13:30 Chinese billionaire talks of portable crematorium, disposal practices and fatality count
15:53 Chinese woman in taxi describing elderly placed in body bag alive and removed to be creamated
18:55 Viewing a new quarantine facility built in 10 days China
20:19 Ramming through a checkpoint China
20:44 Phone call between mother and daughter, mother is locked in house and left to die China
23:06 Police riot control and violence Ukraine
24:17 Philippians from cruise ship placed in quarantine
24:56 Public announcement Iran, Hospitals closed to all except corona virus patients. Many Dr. and nurses now sick
27:39 Iranian mother chewing out Mr. Rouhani
28:30 Hospital videos, abandoned streets with closed shops, street protest, police violence, hospital admitting chaos, body
35:47 on subway platform, disinfecting dormitory(?)
35:47 Italy now has the most cases and highest reported deaths
36:10 Welding apartment doors shut China
38:12 Cargo ships anchored off shore blocked from entering the port
38:30 Woman questioning San Fransico mayor's decision to declare emergency
39:00 Elderly couple, husband caring for wife in hospital bed.
Last edited:
Ok I find this interesting... Different boards of health are recommending that people have enough food, water and medicine for 2 weeks on hand. It is not buried in the information and right out front with that. The other thing I find interesting is the water storage. I get food as you need to go out to get it but water is delivered via your taps. Are they so unsure of how this is spreading that they are including water or when or if they plan to quarantine they are shutting down the utilities as well? Just food for thought as any answer would be speculations as you can not possible know their intent.
Ragnarok
On and On, South of Heaven
As fast as this virus mutates, IMHO, the only vaccine that goes to market will be similar to the current flu vaccine...
In other words, " This is our best guess as to how it will mutate "... And the success rate will be no better than the current flu vaccine...
marsh
On TB every waking moment
There is a state certification for people who operate the water treatment plant and ensure the water is safe for delivery. If someone is sick, his backup better be certified or at least they have to have one of the crew who is still certified.
Bensam
Deceased
The problem with municipal water systems is three fold:
1. The operators are as just as vulnerable to the disease as the rest of us.
2. Water treatment chemicals/supplies supply is a weak point.
3. The treatment plant/process is definitive power dependent. If there are interruptions in the electrical system, the plant goes off line. Most have generators but then the limiting factor is fuel.
As water is so critical, we all need an alternate supply. At the very least, a water filtration system so as to be able to salvage what water we can find. Water (after good air) is definitely the most important prep.
Jubilee on Earth
Veteran Member
Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus
The CDC designed a flawed test for COVID-19, then took weeks to figure out a fix so state and local labs could use it. New York still doesn’t trust the test’s accuracy.www.propublica.org
Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus
The CDC designed a flawed test for COVID-19, then took weeks to figure out a fix so state and local labs could use it. New York still doesn’t trust the test’s accuracy.
by Caroline Chen, Marshall Allen, Lexi Churchill and Isaac Arnsdorf
Feb. 28, 12:13 a.m. EST
A health worker taking a woman’s temperature in the triage area of a hospital in Turin on Wednesday as Italy stepped up efforts to prevent the spread of coronavirus cases. (Mauro Ujetto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published.
As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.
The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.
As a result, until Wednesday the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration only allowed those state labs to use the test — a decision with potentially significant consequences. The lack of a reliable test prevented local officials from taking a crucial first step in coping with a possible outbreak — “surveillance testing” of hundreds of people in possible hotspots. Epidemiologists in other countries have used this sort of testing to track the spread of the disease before large numbers of people turn up at hospitals.
This story is based on interviews with state and local public health officials and scientists across the country, which, taken together, describe a frustrating, bewildering bureaucratic process that seemed at odds with the urgency of the growing threat. The CDC and Vice President Mike Pence’s office, which is coordinating the government’s response to the virus, did not respond to questions for this story. It’s unclear who in the government originally made the decision to design a more complicated test, or to depart from the WHO guidance.
“We’re weeks behind because we had this problem,” said Scott Becker, chief executive officer of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents 100 state and local public laboratories. “We’re usually up-front and center and ready.”
The CDC announced on Feb. 14 that surveillance testing would begin in five key cities, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. That effort has not yet begun.
On Wednesday, under pressure from health experts and public officials, the CDC and the FDA told labs they no longer had to worry about the portion of the test intended “for the universal detection of SARS-like coronaviruses.” After three weeks of struggle, they could now use the test purely to check for the presence of COVID-19.
It remains unclear whether the CDC’s move on Wednesday will resolve all of the problems around the test. Some local labs have raised concerns about whether the CDC’s test is fully reliable for detecting COVID-19.
In New York, scientists at both the city’s and state’s laboratories have seen false positives even when following the CDC’s latest directions, according to a person familiar with their discussions.
“Testing for coronavirus is not available yet in New York City,” city Department of Health spokeswoman Stephanie Buhle said in an email late Thursday. “The kits that were sent to us have demonstrated performance issues and cannot be relied upon to provide an accurate result.”
Until the middle of this week, only the CDC and the six state labs — in Illinois, Idaho, Tennessee, California, Nevada and Nebraska — were testing patients for the virus, according to Peter Kyriacopoulos, APHL’s senior director of public policy. Now, as many more state and local labs are in the process of setting up the testing kits, this capacity is expected to increase rapidly.
So far, the United States has had only 15 confirmed cases, a dozen of them travel-related, according to the CDC. An additional 45 confirmed cases involve people returning to the U.S. having gotten sick abroad. But many public health experts and officials believe that without wider testing the true number of infected Americans remains hidden.
“The basic tenet of public health is to know the situation so you can deal with it appropriately,” said Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. He noted that Guangdong, a province in China, conducted surveillance testing of 300,000 people in fever clinics to find about 420 positive cases. Overall, Guangdong has more than 1,000 confirmed cases. “If you don’t look, you won’t find cases,” he said.
A video monitor inside the California Department of Public Health showed the number of coronavirus cases around the world on Thursday. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Janet Hamilton, senior director of Policy and Science at Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, said that with the virus spreading through multiple countries, “now is the time” for widespread surveillance testing.
“The disease,” she said, “is moving faster than the data.”
It remains to be seen what effect the delay in producing a working test will have on the health of Americans. If the United States dodges the rapidly spreading outbreaks now seen in Iran and South Korea, the impact will be negligible. But if it emerges that the disease is already circulating undetected in communities across the country, health officials will have missed a valuable chance to lessen the harm.
The need to have testing capacity distributed across local health departments became even more apparent Wednesday, when the CDC said it was investigating a case in California in which the patient may be the first infected in the United States without traveling to affected areas or known exposure to someone with the illness.
Doctors at the University of California, Davis Medical Center, where the patient is being treated, said testing was delayed for nearly a week because the patient didn’t fit restrictive federal criteria, which limits tests only to symptomatic patients who recently traveled to China.
“Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19,” UC Davis said in a statement. UC Davis officials said because neither the California Department of Public Health nor Sacramento County could test for the virus, they asked the CDC to do so. But, the officials said, “since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered.”
After this case, and under pressure from public officials, the CDC broadened its guidelines Thursday for identifying suspected patients to include people who had traveled to Iran, Italy, Japan or South Korea.
The debate over whether federal, state and local officials should have already been engaged in widespread surveillance testing has become more heated as the virus has spread globally. The CDC had said the purpose of its five-city surveillance program was to provide the U.S. with an “early warning signal” to help direct its response. The cities were selected based on the likelihood that infection would be present, Hamilton said.
But Mark Pandori, director of the Nevada State Public Health Laboratory, which began offering testing on Feb.11, said surveillance testing may not be the best use of resources right now. “A lot of people look at lab tests like they are magic,” Pandori said. “But when you run lab tests, the more chances you have for getting false answers.”
There are other ways to expand the country’s testing capacity. Beyond the CDC and state labs, hospitals are also able to develop their own tests for diseases like COVID-19 and internally validate their effectiveness, with some oversight from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. But because the CDC declared the virus a public health emergency, it triggered a set of federal rules that raises the bar for all tests, including those devised by local hospitals.
So now, hospitals must validate their tests with the FDA — even if they copied the CDC protocol exactly. Hospital lab directors say the FDA validation process is onerous and is wasting precious time when they could be testing in their local communities.
Alexander Greninger, an assistant professor in laboratory medicine at the University of Washington Medical Center, said after he submitted his COVID-19 test, which copies the CDC protocol, to the FDA, a reviewer asked him to prove that his test would not show a positive result for someone infected with the SARS coronavirus or the MERS coronavirus — an almost ridiculous challenge.
The SARS virus, which appeared in November 2002, affected 26 countries, disappeared in mid-2003 and hasn’t been seen since. The MERS coronavirus primarily affects the Middle East, and the only two cases that have been recorded in the U.S., in 2014, were both imported.
There are labs that can create parts of a SARS virus, but the FDA’s recommended supplier of such materials said it would need one to two months to provide a sample, Greninger said. He spent two days on the phone making dozens of calls, scrambling to find a lab that would provide what he needed.
Greninger said the FDA was treating labs as if they were trying to make a commercially distributed product. “I think it makes sense to have this regulation,’’ he said, when “you’re going to sell 100,000 widgets across the U.S. That’s not who we are.”
Commercial manufacturers are working to mass-produce coronavirus tests, but there isn’t a precise timeline for their release. The drug company Cepheid, based in California, is targeting the second quarter of this year for the release of its test, a company spokeswoman said in an email. Massachusetts-based Hologic didn’t have an estimated release date for its test, a company spokesman said. “We’re responding to the public health need as rapidly as possible,” the spokesman said.
Correction, Feb. 28, 2020: This story originally misstated the number of positive COVID-19 cases found via surveillance testing in the Chinese province of Guangdong. The testing found 420 positive cases, not 1,000.
Everyone needs to read this article again and again. We’re screwed, people. The CDC effed up BIG TIME. Whether it was just an unfortunate series of bad decision-making or on purpose, we’ll probably never know. But this story basically admits we messed up bad. With all the potential infected citizens walking around out there right now undetected, we are at the moment in a bad, bad place.
Old Gray Mare
TB Fanatic
Had to run a pick up today. First time at an Airport that I saw non-Asians wearing face masks. DH said he wanted to cough as he passed by people while mumbling ''.... coronavirus...". He didn't but I could see he was thinking about it.
alpha
Veteran Member
The link revealed in yesterday's Chris Martenson's video to the CDC's 2007 pandemic planning and preparedness guideline should be a 'must read'. It is clear, after reading this .pdf, that the CDC has compromised the common sense it exhibited merely a decade ago. As to whether or not that was politically motivated by its current leadership is unimportant as it's our well-being that is now threatened by their recent inaction and poor decision making.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
Coronavirus: cost to China’s economy may be larger than Beijing hopes as February manufacturing and service sectors plunge
Published: 7:00pm, 29 Feb, 2020
Updated: 7:00pm, 29 Feb, 2020
The damage caused by the coronavirus outbreakto China’s US$14 trillion economy could be much worse than Beijing hoped, as official measures for the country’s factory and service activity indicated on Saturday, threatening President Xi Jinping’s vision for 2020 and underscoring his urgent appeal to get production back to normal.
Monthly economic indicators for February sank to all-time lows as the coronavirus halted China’s manufacturing machine and froze activity in the service sector – from retailing to recycling – painting a bleak picture of the world’s second-biggest economy and challenging Beijing’s repeated assurance that the impact would be manageable and short-lived.
Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus – was first reported in Wuhan in December. Since then it has spread to more than 50 countries and more than 85,000 people have been infected. The outbreak has disrupted travel and cargo shipments, and caused stock markets to slump.
China’s official February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for both manufacturing and services, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, confirmed fears that China’s economy was in bad shape and fanned speculation that it may even contract in the first quarter.
Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital in Hong Kong, said in a note that Beijing might report negative growth for “the first time since the Cultural Revolution”.
The manufacturing PMI, which measures factory activity, dropped to 35.7 in February – below the previous all-time low of 38.8 set in November 2008 during the global financial crisis – from 50 in January when the impact of the epidemic was not apparent.
A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.
All of the sub-indexes of the PMI pointed to the difficult situation facing Chinese factories. Output plummeted, new orders vanished, exports and imports stopped, and logistics were badly disrupted. Input prices, which reflects the costs factories must pay, was the only sub-index that remained above 50.
The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped, to 29.6 from 54.1 in January. This was also the lowest on record, beating the previous low of 49.7 in November 2011, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which produces the index with the National Bureau of Statistics.
The declines in the February reflect the difficulties businesses are having in bringing production back online due to shortages of labour as well as difficulties receiving supplies or shipping goods to market because of transport restrictions enacted to contain the spread of the virus.
An extended slump would put upwards pressure on unemployment, especially among small, private sector service firms. Beijing, which worries that rising joblessness could cause social unrest, has called on local governments to remove unnecessary restrictions to get businesses back to work.
The employment sub-index in the manufacturing PMI fell to 31.8 in February.
“It is not because factories have stopped hiring migrant workers, it is because the flow of migrant workers to factories has been blocked,” said Hua Changchun, an analyst at brokerage Guotai Junan Securities. “There’s no point talking about resuming production if workers can’t return to their jobs.”
Zhang Qiqun, a researcher with the Development Research Centre of State Council, said in a statement that the major economic indicators for this quarter would see “obvious drops” and China must “be prepared”.
How quickly China can dig itself out of the coronavirus hole is a matter of debate. According to the PMI survey, about 90 per cent of medium and large-sized manufacturers are expected to resume production in March, meaning about 10 per cent will still be closed four weeks from now.
As for small firms, the industry ministry said this week that two-thirds would still be closed at the end of February.
China’s production difficulties have resulted in economic problems for nations around the world that rely on supply chains that begin or pass through the country. The global spread of the coronavirus will only exacerbate the problem.
Barclays and Nomura forecast China’s first-quarter growth at 2 per cent, while Capital Economics said it would contract in year-on-year terms.
“The sharp drop in China’s manufacturing PMI in February reinforces our view that the normalisation in economic activity will be delayed,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
“There’s scant chance for a V-shaped rebound – the authorities are using targeted aids more than stimulus to stabilise the economy and that will lead to a gradual bounce.”
The National Bureau of Statistics tried to put a brave face on the data, saying there would be a substantial improvement in March.
“The resumption of work is ramping up and market confidence is steadily recovering,” said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS.
“Although the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has caused a larger impact on production and operations of Chinese enterprises … currently the epidemic has come under initial containment, and the negative impact on production is gradually weakening.”
www.scmp.com
- Purchasing managers’ indexes for both manufacturing and service sectors drop to all-time lows
- Steep falls raise questions over extent of damage epidemic has caused to China’s economy and how long it will take the country to recover
Published: 7:00pm, 29 Feb, 2020
Updated: 7:00pm, 29 Feb, 2020
The damage caused by the coronavirus outbreakto China’s US$14 trillion economy could be much worse than Beijing hoped, as official measures for the country’s factory and service activity indicated on Saturday, threatening President Xi Jinping’s vision for 2020 and underscoring his urgent appeal to get production back to normal.
Monthly economic indicators for February sank to all-time lows as the coronavirus halted China’s manufacturing machine and froze activity in the service sector – from retailing to recycling – painting a bleak picture of the world’s second-biggest economy and challenging Beijing’s repeated assurance that the impact would be manageable and short-lived.
Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus – was first reported in Wuhan in December. Since then it has spread to more than 50 countries and more than 85,000 people have been infected. The outbreak has disrupted travel and cargo shipments, and caused stock markets to slump.
China’s official February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for both manufacturing and services, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, confirmed fears that China’s economy was in bad shape and fanned speculation that it may even contract in the first quarter.
Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital in Hong Kong, said in a note that Beijing might report negative growth for “the first time since the Cultural Revolution”.
The manufacturing PMI, which measures factory activity, dropped to 35.7 in February – below the previous all-time low of 38.8 set in November 2008 during the global financial crisis – from 50 in January when the impact of the epidemic was not apparent.
A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity.
All of the sub-indexes of the PMI pointed to the difficult situation facing Chinese factories. Output plummeted, new orders vanished, exports and imports stopped, and logistics were badly disrupted. Input prices, which reflects the costs factories must pay, was the only sub-index that remained above 50.
The non-manufacturing PMI – a gauge of sentiment in the services and construction sectors – also dropped, to 29.6 from 54.1 in January. This was also the lowest on record, beating the previous low of 49.7 in November 2011, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which produces the index with the National Bureau of Statistics.
The declines in the February reflect the difficulties businesses are having in bringing production back online due to shortages of labour as well as difficulties receiving supplies or shipping goods to market because of transport restrictions enacted to contain the spread of the virus.
An extended slump would put upwards pressure on unemployment, especially among small, private sector service firms. Beijing, which worries that rising joblessness could cause social unrest, has called on local governments to remove unnecessary restrictions to get businesses back to work.
The employment sub-index in the manufacturing PMI fell to 31.8 in February.
“It is not because factories have stopped hiring migrant workers, it is because the flow of migrant workers to factories has been blocked,” said Hua Changchun, an analyst at brokerage Guotai Junan Securities. “There’s no point talking about resuming production if workers can’t return to their jobs.”
Zhang Qiqun, a researcher with the Development Research Centre of State Council, said in a statement that the major economic indicators for this quarter would see “obvious drops” and China must “be prepared”.
How quickly China can dig itself out of the coronavirus hole is a matter of debate. According to the PMI survey, about 90 per cent of medium and large-sized manufacturers are expected to resume production in March, meaning about 10 per cent will still be closed four weeks from now.
As for small firms, the industry ministry said this week that two-thirds would still be closed at the end of February.
China’s production difficulties have resulted in economic problems for nations around the world that rely on supply chains that begin or pass through the country. The global spread of the coronavirus will only exacerbate the problem.
Barclays and Nomura forecast China’s first-quarter growth at 2 per cent, while Capital Economics said it would contract in year-on-year terms.
“The sharp drop in China’s manufacturing PMI in February reinforces our view that the normalisation in economic activity will be delayed,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
“There’s scant chance for a V-shaped rebound – the authorities are using targeted aids more than stimulus to stabilise the economy and that will lead to a gradual bounce.”
The National Bureau of Statistics tried to put a brave face on the data, saying there would be a substantial improvement in March.
“The resumption of work is ramping up and market confidence is steadily recovering,” said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS.
“Although the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has caused a larger impact on production and operations of Chinese enterprises … currently the epidemic has come under initial containment, and the negative impact on production is gradually weakening.”
China’s economic activity plunges as coronavirus hit intensifies
Official purchasing managers’ indices for both manufacturing and service sectors drop to all-time lows as steep falls raise questions over extent of coronavirus damage.
www.scmp.com
Hfcomms
EN66iq
China's schools will remain closed until epidemic basically under control: Ministry
Source: Xinhua| 2020-02-29 14:49:26|Editor: huaxia
BEIJING, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) -- Primary and middle schools in different regions shall not reopen until the epidemic is basically under control, according to China's Ministry of Education.
It also made clear two other conditions for such schools in starting the new semester: when schools have the capability in essential prevention and control, and the safety of teachers and students and the public health security in schools is effectively guaranteed.
For the period before the new semester, local education authorities and schools were asked to design reasonable schedules for pupils and middle school students and strengthen the guidance for their study at home, said a circular from the ministry released Friday.
It also urged colleges and universities to evaluate the effect of their online teaching projects and make timely adjustments.
China's schools will remain closed until epidemic basically under control: Ministry - Xinhua | English.news.cn
China's schools will remain closed until epidemic basically under control
So despite the happy BS that China is putting out with it's fake numbers the epidemic is not yet under control or the schools would reopen. The Chinese censors let that one slip. HF
Source: Xinhua| 2020-02-29 14:49:26|Editor: huaxia
BEIJING, Feb. 29 (Xinhua) -- Primary and middle schools in different regions shall not reopen until the epidemic is basically under control, according to China's Ministry of Education.
It also made clear two other conditions for such schools in starting the new semester: when schools have the capability in essential prevention and control, and the safety of teachers and students and the public health security in schools is effectively guaranteed.
For the period before the new semester, local education authorities and schools were asked to design reasonable schedules for pupils and middle school students and strengthen the guidance for their study at home, said a circular from the ministry released Friday.
It also urged colleges and universities to evaluate the effect of their online teaching projects and make timely adjustments.
China's schools will remain closed until epidemic basically under control: Ministry - Xinhua | English.news.cn
China's schools will remain closed until epidemic basically under control
So despite the happy BS that China is putting out with it's fake numbers the epidemic is not yet under control or the schools would reopen. The Chinese censors let that one slip. HF
Hfcomms
EN66iq
USAID Global Health Supply Chain Program
Coronavirus Update from GHSC-PSM
February 27, 2020
The USAID Global Health Supply Chain Program-Procurement and Supply Management (GHSC-PSM) project is closely monitoring coronavirus’ (COVID-19's) spread and its potential impact on the global health supply chain.
GHSC-PSM continues to monitor supply chain risks through the following mechanisms:
Currently we are seeing:
Employees in China are slowly returning to work after the extended Lunar New Year celebrations. GHSC-PSM continues to gather information and work with USAID and other global stakeholders to identify mitigation strategies to avoid supply chain disruption and to ensure that HIV/AIDS, malaria, family planning and reproductive health and maternal and child health commodities reach the people that need them.
Coronavirus Update from GHSC-PSM
February 27, 2020
The USAID Global Health Supply Chain Program-Procurement and Supply Management (GHSC-PSM) project is closely monitoring coronavirus’ (COVID-19's) spread and its potential impact on the global health supply chain.
GHSC-PSM continues to monitor supply chain risks through the following mechanisms:
- Receives bi-weekly status reports from GHSC-PSM’s suppliers in China and elsewhere and regular updates from all third-party logistics companies.
- Conducts market assessments to help identify capacity constraints affecting finished pharmaceutical products, key starting materials and active pharmaceutical ingredients.
- Ongoing reviews of orders pending pickup from Chinese manufacturers, as well as orders from Asia and elsewhere that are known to depend on China for key raw materials, as these orders represent the greatest risk to country-level delays.
Currently we are seeing:
- New disease hot spots are occurring in South Korea, Italy and Iran.
- China production appears to be 33%-50% operational, but some businesses remain closed.
- The Chinese government is incentivizing factories to boost production, but a spike in factory output is expected to cause congestion problems in China.
- China has issued force majeure certificates to over 1,600 companies, shielding companies from legal and financial damages arising from not performing or only partially performing contractual duties.
- Ground transport in China remains slow due to city restrictions. Some airlines have re-initiated operations in China, although cargo demands remain uncertain, and ocean ports are still operational but traffic is significantly reduced. Expected delays have decreased as employees in China return to work, however surcharges and crowding remain possible.
- China has approved an anti-viral drug called Favipiravir against Covid-19. Additionally, chloroquine has yielded positive data in COVID-19 trials. Supply and demand for LPV/r based ARVs continues to be monitored.
- Disruption in China continues to cause a ripple effect on global supply chains as China is the world’s largest exporter of intermediate goods used by other companies in their goods.
Employees in China are slowly returning to work after the extended Lunar New Year celebrations. GHSC-PSM continues to gather information and work with USAID and other global stakeholders to identify mitigation strategies to avoid supply chain disruption and to ensure that HIV/AIDS, malaria, family planning and reproductive health and maternal and child health commodities reach the people that need them.
bw
Fringe Ranger
That's exactly what's going on. The public can instantly soak up the entire stock, and the CDC wants to keep it for medical people. Perfectly understandable. Also perfectly right and proper for the public to see through the ploy and take their own precautions.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
US Dependence on China for Pharma, Medical Supplies May Lead to Severe Interruptions
Even before a supply line interruption from China or a full blown U.S. coronavirus pandemic, hospitals and doctors nationwide in the U.S. are facing shortages of crucial lifesaving drugs, with 116 drugs currently running low, according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
For example, heperin, which is used as blood thinner used during cardiac surgery, is made from pig intestines. The ingredient source for most of this drug is from China, and 70% of China’s pigs have been destroyed by swine flu.
China is the largest and only global supplier for the active ingredients in many vital medications. Active ingredients for medicines that treat breast cancer and lung cancer, for example, and the antibiotic Vancomycin, which is a last resort antibiotic for some types of antimicrobial resistant infections. They’re made almost exclusively in China.
China is not only the dominant general global supplier of pharmaceuticals, but it’s also the largest supplier of medical devices for the U.S. These include items like MRI equipment, surgical gowns and equipment that measures oxygen levels in the blood.
Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, is a significant player in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry, with multiple pharmaceutical companies located in the city. What a coinkydink.
Drug shortages were increasing and lasting longer even before the outbreak, according to an FDA report published Oct. 29. Of the 163 drugs that were running low between 2013 and 2017, more than 62 percent were due to manufacturing or product quality problems. Fifty-six percent of U.S. hospitals reported delays or changes to patient care due to drug shortages during between 2015 and 2017, according to a survey cited by the FDA.
In a market the FDA calls “broken,” drug manufacturers have little incentive to produce older drugs that cost less, leaving only a few companies supplying certain drugs. These are Chinese. The last U.S. penicillin plant closed in 2004.
It could take years to redevelop the necessary infrastructure to reestablish U.S. manufacturing capacities and obtain required FDA licencing necessary to overcome the loss of resources from Chinese suppliers.
Amplifying the issue is the prevalence of bottom-line-focused JIT (just in time) inventory systems that provide little or no room for production curtailments or China First policies during a worldwide pandemic. This may happen by force majaere from China’s own national emergency needs to treat millions in the epidemic.
China will face decisions whether to prohibit the export of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and other vital medical components in order to treat or protect its own people. Such scenarios would be the logical outcome of an escalating situation. In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response, for example, the U.S. was pushed to the back of the queue for vaccine deliveries even though it had existing contracts with a major vaccine manufacturer located in another country.
Bob Woodward’s book, “Fear: Trump in the White House,” pointed out that Gary Cohn, then chief economic adviser to President Trump, argued against a trade war with China by invoking a Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China.
“If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics,” Cohn reportedly said.
Cohn’s national security warning was ignored and his tenure in the Trojan Horse Trump administration was short lived.
Cohn exaggerated a little, as actually 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to make drugs in the United States are said to come from China.
Many Indian pharmaceutical firms are leading API manufacturers, but India depends on China for sourcing nearly three quarters of APIs in generic drug formulations. In fact, epicenter Hubei province accounts for 50-60% of API imported into India. The Modi government published a list of 57 medicines that are likely to go out of stock following a shutdown.
Even among the drugs that are being imported, there are problems. In the summer of 2018, for example, one of China’s largest domestic vaccine makers sold to the U.S. at least 250,000 substandard doses of vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough. It’s the latest in a slew of scandals caused by poor quality drug products made in China over the last decade.
And now the FDA has pulled its inspectors out of China because of the spreading epidemic. By law U.S. supplies must come from FDA-approved and inspected manufacturers. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the FDA had told Congress it lacks the staffing needed for oversight in China. It said its work is also hampered by language barriers and its limited ability to conduct surprise inspections there.
Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), who serves as chairwoman of the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, said Thursday evening that China’s control of the global supply of many pharmaceutical ingredients is keeping her up at night. She complained she’s not getting answers from U.S. officials on what overseas factories may be shut down amid quarantines.
“We have every reason to worry because we don’t know. Have any of the agencies on behalf of the administration done an inventory?” Eshoo said. “I think they don’t know.”
Even the Pollyanna spinmeister, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed earlier this week that the coronavirus could lead to a drop in exports and production in China, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector.
www.winterwatch.net
Even before a supply line interruption from China or a full blown U.S. coronavirus pandemic, hospitals and doctors nationwide in the U.S. are facing shortages of crucial lifesaving drugs, with 116 drugs currently running low, according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
For example, heperin, which is used as blood thinner used during cardiac surgery, is made from pig intestines. The ingredient source for most of this drug is from China, and 70% of China’s pigs have been destroyed by swine flu.
China is the largest and only global supplier for the active ingredients in many vital medications. Active ingredients for medicines that treat breast cancer and lung cancer, for example, and the antibiotic Vancomycin, which is a last resort antibiotic for some types of antimicrobial resistant infections. They’re made almost exclusively in China.
China is not only the dominant general global supplier of pharmaceuticals, but it’s also the largest supplier of medical devices for the U.S. These include items like MRI equipment, surgical gowns and equipment that measures oxygen levels in the blood.
Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, is a significant player in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry, with multiple pharmaceutical companies located in the city. What a coinkydink.
Drug shortages were increasing and lasting longer even before the outbreak, according to an FDA report published Oct. 29. Of the 163 drugs that were running low between 2013 and 2017, more than 62 percent were due to manufacturing or product quality problems. Fifty-six percent of U.S. hospitals reported delays or changes to patient care due to drug shortages during between 2015 and 2017, according to a survey cited by the FDA.
In a market the FDA calls “broken,” drug manufacturers have little incentive to produce older drugs that cost less, leaving only a few companies supplying certain drugs. These are Chinese. The last U.S. penicillin plant closed in 2004.
It could take years to redevelop the necessary infrastructure to reestablish U.S. manufacturing capacities and obtain required FDA licencing necessary to overcome the loss of resources from Chinese suppliers.
Amplifying the issue is the prevalence of bottom-line-focused JIT (just in time) inventory systems that provide little or no room for production curtailments or China First policies during a worldwide pandemic. This may happen by force majaere from China’s own national emergency needs to treat millions in the epidemic.
China will face decisions whether to prohibit the export of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and other vital medical components in order to treat or protect its own people. Such scenarios would be the logical outcome of an escalating situation. In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response, for example, the U.S. was pushed to the back of the queue for vaccine deliveries even though it had existing contracts with a major vaccine manufacturer located in another country.
Bob Woodward’s book, “Fear: Trump in the White House,” pointed out that Gary Cohn, then chief economic adviser to President Trump, argued against a trade war with China by invoking a Department of Commerce study that found that 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States came from China.
“If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics,” Cohn reportedly said.
Cohn’s national security warning was ignored and his tenure in the Trojan Horse Trump administration was short lived.
Cohn exaggerated a little, as actually 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to make drugs in the United States are said to come from China.
Many Indian pharmaceutical firms are leading API manufacturers, but India depends on China for sourcing nearly three quarters of APIs in generic drug formulations. In fact, epicenter Hubei province accounts for 50-60% of API imported into India. The Modi government published a list of 57 medicines that are likely to go out of stock following a shutdown.
Even among the drugs that are being imported, there are problems. In the summer of 2018, for example, one of China’s largest domestic vaccine makers sold to the U.S. at least 250,000 substandard doses of vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough. It’s the latest in a slew of scandals caused by poor quality drug products made in China over the last decade.
And now the FDA has pulled its inspectors out of China because of the spreading epidemic. By law U.S. supplies must come from FDA-approved and inspected manufacturers. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, the FDA had told Congress it lacks the staffing needed for oversight in China. It said its work is also hampered by language barriers and its limited ability to conduct surprise inspections there.
Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), who serves as chairwoman of the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, said Thursday evening that China’s control of the global supply of many pharmaceutical ingredients is keeping her up at night. She complained she’s not getting answers from U.S. officials on what overseas factories may be shut down amid quarantines.
“We have every reason to worry because we don’t know. Have any of the agencies on behalf of the administration done an inventory?” Eshoo said. “I think they don’t know.”
Even the Pollyanna spinmeister, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed earlier this week that the coronavirus could lead to a drop in exports and production in China, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector.
Black Swan Supply Chain: US Dependence on China for Pharma, Medical Supplies May Lead to Severe Interruptions
Even before a supply line interruption from China or a full blown U.S. coronavirus pandemic, hospitals and doctors nationwide in the U.S. are facing shortages of crucial lifesaving drugs, with 116 …
www.winterwatch.net
Hfcomms
EN66iq
Coronavirus and Your Global Supply Chain, Rising Panic
We have been helping companies with their global tariff strategies because of the trade war and the resultant economic emergency. The Coronavirus is causing a different kind of economic crisis that is even more urgent.
By Rosemary Coates
Manufacturers are beginning to panic.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Coronavirus with, at that point 100 deaths, and the beginning of shipping and logistics issues with all products coming out of China. Since then, the crisis has geometrically progressed and nearly 1000 people have died, and 40,000 infected people are being treated. The infection has spread worldwide, to include Silicon Valley where I live.
No vaccine is currently available.
In parallel with the spread of the virus, Chinese New Year celebrations across the globe were banned or subdued as governments recommended against public gatherings. Chinese factory closures for the holiday were extended until today, Feb 10 or longer, depending on the perceived threat. Airlines including American, United, and Delta have suspended flights. Restrictions on ship dockings are rising.
Supply Chains within Supply Chains within Supply Chains
Panic is beginning to rise in global supply chains. Suddenly, all supply chains seem vulnerable because so many Chinese supply chains within supply chains within supply chains rely on each other for parts and raw materials. That tiny valve that is inside a motor that you are sourcing for your US-made product is made in China. So are the rare earth elements you require to manufacture magnets and electronics…and on and on. Purchasing departments declaring that they have alternate non-Chinese suppliers, may be naïve in thinking that their domestic suppliers don’t rely on parts from China and that shortages are eminent.
With no parts being received from China, a Hyundai manufacturing plant in Korea had to suspend operations. This is one of the first to declare an interruption in manufacturing and we are likely to see many more over the coming weeks. In an effort to deploy Lean Manufacturing techniques, manufacturer’s inventories are thin and many parts arrive just-in-time. The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable because Wuhan and Hubei province are the auto parts and auto production region of China.
Closures of factories and suspension of cargo movements
Several of my clients are busy trying to figure out how to get shipments out of China. Airlines and air cargo operations that have been on a restricted holiday schedule, are now completely suspended. Many of the factories and logistics warehouses are on extended leave, not only in Wuhan, but also Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. Hong Kong, with recent protest problems of its own, is also restricting incoming people and shipments from China and outbound flight operations. Some factories are being ordered to stay shut. Workers are afraid to go back to work even if their factory is open.
Some companies are trying to source parts to stock up on inventory, to try to outlast this critical virus period. This in turn, will eventually cause shortages of all kinds as companies pay premium prices and hoard parts.
Even if some parts start to trickle out of China, enhanced screening for the virus at seaports, airports, and all China boarder crossings are likely to cause long delays. How long before all the factories come back to life and global logistics are running smoothly is anybody’s guess.
Plan B and Plan C
I am hoping that this round of risk in your global supply chain, is yet another incentive to have your alternate plans developed and ready to go. If you are ready to execute your Plan B and your competitors are not, you have the competitive advantage. If they are ready and you are not, your company loses.
It’s time to worry and plan for disasters like the Coronavirus, trade wars, and global warning. They will all affect your supply chains. If you are already working on alternate plans, review them again and add detail and then give them a test. Make sure all your alternate plans will work.
We have been helping companies with their global tariff strategies because of the trade war and the resultant economic emergency. The Coronavirus is causing a different kind of economic crisis that is even more urgent.
We are being told not to panic because this virus so far, has resulted in far fewer deaths than the flu. But it is time for businesses to raise the threat level for their supply chains and take action now.
Ms. Coates is the Executive Director of the Reshoring Institute and the President of Blue Silk Consulting, a Global Supply Chain consulting firm.
We have been helping companies with their global tariff strategies because of the trade war and the resultant economic emergency. The Coronavirus is causing a different kind of economic crisis that is even more urgent.
By Rosemary Coates
Manufacturers are beginning to panic.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Coronavirus with, at that point 100 deaths, and the beginning of shipping and logistics issues with all products coming out of China. Since then, the crisis has geometrically progressed and nearly 1000 people have died, and 40,000 infected people are being treated. The infection has spread worldwide, to include Silicon Valley where I live.
No vaccine is currently available.
In parallel with the spread of the virus, Chinese New Year celebrations across the globe were banned or subdued as governments recommended against public gatherings. Chinese factory closures for the holiday were extended until today, Feb 10 or longer, depending on the perceived threat. Airlines including American, United, and Delta have suspended flights. Restrictions on ship dockings are rising.
Supply Chains within Supply Chains within Supply Chains
Panic is beginning to rise in global supply chains. Suddenly, all supply chains seem vulnerable because so many Chinese supply chains within supply chains within supply chains rely on each other for parts and raw materials. That tiny valve that is inside a motor that you are sourcing for your US-made product is made in China. So are the rare earth elements you require to manufacture magnets and electronics…and on and on. Purchasing departments declaring that they have alternate non-Chinese suppliers, may be naïve in thinking that their domestic suppliers don’t rely on parts from China and that shortages are eminent.
With no parts being received from China, a Hyundai manufacturing plant in Korea had to suspend operations. This is one of the first to declare an interruption in manufacturing and we are likely to see many more over the coming weeks. In an effort to deploy Lean Manufacturing techniques, manufacturer’s inventories are thin and many parts arrive just-in-time. The automotive sector is particularly vulnerable because Wuhan and Hubei province are the auto parts and auto production region of China.
Closures of factories and suspension of cargo movements
Several of my clients are busy trying to figure out how to get shipments out of China. Airlines and air cargo operations that have been on a restricted holiday schedule, are now completely suspended. Many of the factories and logistics warehouses are on extended leave, not only in Wuhan, but also Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. Hong Kong, with recent protest problems of its own, is also restricting incoming people and shipments from China and outbound flight operations. Some factories are being ordered to stay shut. Workers are afraid to go back to work even if their factory is open.
Some companies are trying to source parts to stock up on inventory, to try to outlast this critical virus period. This in turn, will eventually cause shortages of all kinds as companies pay premium prices and hoard parts.
Even if some parts start to trickle out of China, enhanced screening for the virus at seaports, airports, and all China boarder crossings are likely to cause long delays. How long before all the factories come back to life and global logistics are running smoothly is anybody’s guess.
Plan B and Plan C
I am hoping that this round of risk in your global supply chain, is yet another incentive to have your alternate plans developed and ready to go. If you are ready to execute your Plan B and your competitors are not, you have the competitive advantage. If they are ready and you are not, your company loses.
It’s time to worry and plan for disasters like the Coronavirus, trade wars, and global warning. They will all affect your supply chains. If you are already working on alternate plans, review them again and add detail and then give them a test. Make sure all your alternate plans will work.
We have been helping companies with their global tariff strategies because of the trade war and the resultant economic emergency. The Coronavirus is causing a different kind of economic crisis that is even more urgent.
We are being told not to panic because this virus so far, has resulted in far fewer deaths than the flu. But it is time for businesses to raise the threat level for their supply chains and take action now.
Ms. Coates is the Executive Director of the Reshoring Institute and the President of Blue Silk Consulting, a Global Supply Chain consulting firm.
Coronavirus and Your Global Supply Chain, Rising Panic – Part 2
We have been helping companies with their global tariff strategies because of the trade war and the resultant economic emergency. The Coronavirus is causing a different kind of economic crisis that is even more urgent.
www.logisticsmgmt.com
www.jameslyonsweiler.com
Dr.James Weiler PHD in virology and( virus hunter, detective) was on Alex Jones Show Fri 2/28/20 3rd hour., watched on youtube.
Dr. Weiler was on with host Mike Adams, not Alex, so the 40 min. discussion was deep and on PHD level, but Mike Adams broke it down for us. Well worth a listen.
Dr. Weiler has issued a peer review paper on covid 19 .
I hope the medical members will give us their take.
Dr.James Weiler PHD in virology and( virus hunter, detective) was on Alex Jones Show Fri 2/28/20 3rd hour., watched on youtube.
Dr. Weiler was on with host Mike Adams, not Alex, so the 40 min. discussion was deep and on PHD level, but Mike Adams broke it down for us. Well worth a listen.
Dr. Weiler has issued a peer review paper on covid 19 .
I hope the medical members will give us their take.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
What the Coronavirus End Game Will Look Like
David Fickling
Bloomberg
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Pandemics come and pandemics go.
In the grip of a new infection spreading around a planet with no natural immunity, it can feel like the sky is falling. Over the coming months, it’s likely that a significant share of the world’s population will experience some of the dread of the Covid-19 coronavirus that people in China have suffered over the past few months. Many will die.
Still, the likely end-point of this outbreak will see it settle down as an endemic disease — one of the suite of respiratory viruses like influenza and the common cold that travel around the world year after year, with most of us regarding them as little more than a nuisance.
The great unknown is what will happen along the way. Doing the sums can produce alarming figures. The best estimates so far suggest that Covid-19 kills about 1% of people it infects. That number may go up somewhat or fall significantly; either way it could add up to a dreadful toll.
If 60% of the world’s population is ultimately infected, as suggested by Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, a 1% fatality rate would kill almost 50 million people — similar to the 1918 Spanish flu. If that falls to 0.1%, it could still be roughly 10 times more fatal than the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, which killed several hundred thousand in its first year.
A better comparison might be the influenza pandemics that emerged from China in the 1950s and 1960s, according to Benjamin Cowie, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Melbourne — but the differences are still significant. While our health systems are far better than they were 50 years ago, the channels of infection are more open, too.
“We’re in a very different world now, our world is much more interconnected,” he said. “What happens in one place is much more likely to be on the other side of the world in 24 hours.”
Attempts to contain this infection in existing hot spots in Asia, the Middle East and Europe appear to be failing. If that’s the case, expect to see low-level movement restrictions spread elsewhere. Such measures don’t serve so much to eliminate as to slow down a highly contagious infection like Covid-19. Still, that will spread out the burden of sickness over a longer period, putting less pressure on the health system.
The biggest impact is likely to be on the young and old. Children are less able to carry out the basic hygiene and touch-avoidance measures that help slow infections, so school closures like those imposed in Hong Kong and now in Japan could crop up elsewhere.
Aged care homes may see even more serious restrictions. Covid-19 seems to particularly target the elderly and those with other existing conditions. One recent study of more than 72,000 cases in China found a fatality rate of 2.3% across all age groups, rising to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people above 80. Minimizing the risks to older people will probably put significant pressure on aged care facilities, especially if staff are infected themselves, or called away to look after children sent home from shuttered schools.
Fortunately, the most severe period of initial infection could soon be fading. Respiratory diseases flourish in the cold season and taper off as the weather warms up. That should cause infection rates to slow in the northern hemisphere, while continuing at a lower level in tropical regions and spiking in temperate parts of the southern hemisphere where winter will be setting in. When a new year rolls around, the bulk of the disease will shift back to the northern hemisphere, to begin the cycle again.
Subsequent Covid-19 seasons probably won’t be as serious. Those who survive viruses should be immune from reinfection (though there have been reports of people being diagnosed with Covid-19 for a second time), and as the share of survivors in the population rises, it gets harder for a disease to spread.
“Most influenza pandemics last two to three years,” said Peter White, a professor of virology at the University of New South Wales. “That’s how long it takes before herd immunity is built up.”
In a best-case scenario, it’s even possible that vaccines may be available in not much more than a year. On top of that, doctors and nurses will get better at treating the condition and preventing severe illness, both through improved clinical knowledge; use of antiviral medicines like Kaletra, if they’re found to be effective; and because they’ll be much better-equipped to handle the crisis when infection rates are lower and fewer people are crowding into hospitals and clinics.
There’s no cause for complacency. Epidemics often move in waves, so that an apparent early peak in infections can be followed by further surges. That’s reason to maintain vigilance around measures like hand-washing and touch-avoidance, even if the pandemic seems to be on the ebb.
All of this will affect society in ways hard to predict. A global economy that’s off sick will struggle to grow in the manner previously expected. A disease that so aggressively targets older people may even shift the demographic structure of populations. The large number of men who died in the 1918 Spanish flu and the First World War has often been cited as one reason why the social and economic position of women improved so much in the 1920s.
We’re not on the brink of doom. As we’ve written, taking modest and sensible precautions should keep most people safe. In time, Covid-19 may be remembered not so much with dread as with historical curiosity. But the coming months, and years, will change us.
David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities, as well as industrial and consumer companies. He has been a reporter for Bloomberg News, Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the Guardian.
finance.yahoo.com
David Fickling
Bloomberg
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Pandemics come and pandemics go.
In the grip of a new infection spreading around a planet with no natural immunity, it can feel like the sky is falling. Over the coming months, it’s likely that a significant share of the world’s population will experience some of the dread of the Covid-19 coronavirus that people in China have suffered over the past few months. Many will die.
Still, the likely end-point of this outbreak will see it settle down as an endemic disease — one of the suite of respiratory viruses like influenza and the common cold that travel around the world year after year, with most of us regarding them as little more than a nuisance.
The great unknown is what will happen along the way. Doing the sums can produce alarming figures. The best estimates so far suggest that Covid-19 kills about 1% of people it infects. That number may go up somewhat or fall significantly; either way it could add up to a dreadful toll.
If 60% of the world’s population is ultimately infected, as suggested by Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, a 1% fatality rate would kill almost 50 million people — similar to the 1918 Spanish flu. If that falls to 0.1%, it could still be roughly 10 times more fatal than the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, which killed several hundred thousand in its first year.
A better comparison might be the influenza pandemics that emerged from China in the 1950s and 1960s, according to Benjamin Cowie, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Melbourne — but the differences are still significant. While our health systems are far better than they were 50 years ago, the channels of infection are more open, too.
“We’re in a very different world now, our world is much more interconnected,” he said. “What happens in one place is much more likely to be on the other side of the world in 24 hours.”
Attempts to contain this infection in existing hot spots in Asia, the Middle East and Europe appear to be failing. If that’s the case, expect to see low-level movement restrictions spread elsewhere. Such measures don’t serve so much to eliminate as to slow down a highly contagious infection like Covid-19. Still, that will spread out the burden of sickness over a longer period, putting less pressure on the health system.
The biggest impact is likely to be on the young and old. Children are less able to carry out the basic hygiene and touch-avoidance measures that help slow infections, so school closures like those imposed in Hong Kong and now in Japan could crop up elsewhere.
Aged care homes may see even more serious restrictions. Covid-19 seems to particularly target the elderly and those with other existing conditions. One recent study of more than 72,000 cases in China found a fatality rate of 2.3% across all age groups, rising to 8% for people in their 70s and 15% for people above 80. Minimizing the risks to older people will probably put significant pressure on aged care facilities, especially if staff are infected themselves, or called away to look after children sent home from shuttered schools.
Fortunately, the most severe period of initial infection could soon be fading. Respiratory diseases flourish in the cold season and taper off as the weather warms up. That should cause infection rates to slow in the northern hemisphere, while continuing at a lower level in tropical regions and spiking in temperate parts of the southern hemisphere where winter will be setting in. When a new year rolls around, the bulk of the disease will shift back to the northern hemisphere, to begin the cycle again.
Subsequent Covid-19 seasons probably won’t be as serious. Those who survive viruses should be immune from reinfection (though there have been reports of people being diagnosed with Covid-19 for a second time), and as the share of survivors in the population rises, it gets harder for a disease to spread.
“Most influenza pandemics last two to three years,” said Peter White, a professor of virology at the University of New South Wales. “That’s how long it takes before herd immunity is built up.”
In a best-case scenario, it’s even possible that vaccines may be available in not much more than a year. On top of that, doctors and nurses will get better at treating the condition and preventing severe illness, both through improved clinical knowledge; use of antiviral medicines like Kaletra, if they’re found to be effective; and because they’ll be much better-equipped to handle the crisis when infection rates are lower and fewer people are crowding into hospitals and clinics.
There’s no cause for complacency. Epidemics often move in waves, so that an apparent early peak in infections can be followed by further surges. That’s reason to maintain vigilance around measures like hand-washing and touch-avoidance, even if the pandemic seems to be on the ebb.
All of this will affect society in ways hard to predict. A global economy that’s off sick will struggle to grow in the manner previously expected. A disease that so aggressively targets older people may even shift the demographic structure of populations. The large number of men who died in the 1918 Spanish flu and the First World War has often been cited as one reason why the social and economic position of women improved so much in the 1920s.
We’re not on the brink of doom. As we’ve written, taking modest and sensible precautions should keep most people safe. In time, Covid-19 may be remembered not so much with dread as with historical curiosity. But the coming months, and years, will change us.
David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities, as well as industrial and consumer companies. He has been a reporter for Bloomberg News, Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the Guardian.
What the Coronavirus End Game Will Look Like
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Pandemics come and pandemics go.In the grip of a new infection spreading around a planet with no natural immunity, it can feel like the sky is falling. Over the coming months, it’s likely that a significant share of the world’s population will experience some of the dread...
Hogwrench
Senior Member
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
41m
BREAKING: Qatar reports first case of coronavirus
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1233714047801069568