CORONA Main Coronavirus thread
- Thread starter Heliobas Disciple
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Hfcomms
EN66iq
Agree fully with all your observations.
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
I will hard pass on that.... thank very much!You could think about Rubella or Polio if its more cheerful
Same difference.
jward
passin' thru
Actually many suggest it is a flawed modality for valid extrapolation due to its overcrowed and confined conditions...at present, that argument rings true to me.... Singaporean numbers have been praised by many diverse sources, though, for their transparency, timely reporting, and accuracy...
bcingu
Senior Member
COMPILATION OF VIDEOS SHOWING THE CHINESE GOVERNMENTS RESPONSE TO THE VIRUS
View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB3N2m9_nT0#action=share
RUN TIME 4:15
0:00-:42 Cleaning out school dormitories for quarantine housing
0:42-:57 Fighting in the street
:57-2:34 Military removing suspected sick for quarantine
2:34-3:32 Man on phone screaming in anguish about having the virus and what that means
3:32-4:15 Arresting the sick and random street fights
GRAPHIC violence and language
RUN TIME 4:15
0:00-:42 Cleaning out school dormitories for quarantine housing
0:42-:57 Fighting in the street
:57-2:34 Military removing suspected sick for quarantine
2:34-3:32 Man on phone screaming in anguish about having the virus and what that means
3:32-4:15 Arresting the sick and random street fights
Trivium Pursuit
Has No Life - Lives on TB
As always, any post from rondaben is most worthy of your attention on this thread. This time he brings up a very important economic point that bears thinking about in terms of impact to us in the US. This really bears repeating, so I will repeat it here.. .that China has probly burnt through much if not all of its foreign currency reserves in the course of fighting this.
I highlight this, because if it is true and I see no reason to believe that it wouldn't be, what is their next step? Does this mean at some point soon they are going to start selling off all their remaining US Treasury bonds? If they do I am certain we will feel that. IIRC, They had been starting to sell them somewhat more over last year or 2, but I think this would be a wholesale dumping. Thoughts and speculations on this?
library lady
Veteran Member
Andy Biotech@AndyBiotech
Largest study to date from China CDC of first 4021 laboratory confirmed cases w/ #2019nCoV #COVID19 from 30 provinces R0 ~3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05) Case fatality rates (CFR) ~3.06% with significant gender difference - Male 4.45% - Female 1.25% https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110
Dr. Angela Rasmussen
@angie_rasmussen
People are still freaking out over "asymptomatic" patients, so here's some info on virus incubation, symptoms, and lab confirmation of #nCoV2019 #coronavirus tests. It's not unusual for patients to test negative (for this or any other virus) in the early days after infection
Replying to
@angie_rasmussen
When a virus infects a cell, it takes time to replicate itself inside that cell and produce new virus particles. The period of time when a virus is replicating but hasn't yet begun producing new virus particles (called virions) is called the eclipse
During the eclipse phase, viral RNA (the genetic material of the virus) and proteins are produced in cells. Proteins are involved in replicating the virus, hijacking host cell functions, evading immunity, and making the virus "shell" (capsid/structural proteins)
Viral RNA is packaged into the capsids and the virus particles are released from the cell. They go on to infect other cells nearby and the process repeats, resulting in exponential increases in the amount of virus (called titer)
Current virus testing technology (qRT-PCR) detects viral RNA. These tests are sensitive, but there's a limit of detection. qRT-PCR can only detect virus if there are sufficient viral titers. Early in infection, there may not be enough RNA to reliably detect this.
Also, cells in the human respiratory tract are highly structured. There are different kinds of cells that are organized into tissues. Not all of these cells are susceptible to infection, and certain cell types may produce more virus than others.
There are also natural barriers, such as mucus, that trap viruses and prevent them from infecting cells. So it can take time to achieve detectable virus titers. That time depends on a whole lot of variables.
Infectious dose, mode of transmission, viral genetics, viral fitness, host genetics, host cell receptor expression, antiviral response, amount of mucus, other underlying conditions, sampling procedure--these can all impact titer and hence the time it takes to detect infection
Note I haven't even mentioned symptoms. That's because symptoms are largely due to the host response to infection, rather than the infection itself (S/O to host responses, that's what I study!).
For coronaviruses, symptoms are generally the result of host cells (either infected cells or other immune cells nearby) detecting that infection and triggering antiviral responses. This process is complicated and plays out differently in every infected host.
It's kind of like a football game. There are different specialized players on each side and different coaching strategies. Sometimes the host keeps the virus in check, sometimes the other way around.
But when a virus is able to spread--for example, to the lower respiratory tract--then the host response also is more widespread. That response to viruses includes inflammation. Localized, controlled inflammation is good--it's needed for immune function to clear virus
More widespread, uncontrolled inflammation is bad. That's how a patient gets pneumonia. When this happens, a patient is definitely symptomatic. These patients have plenty of detectable virus.
However, a patient who is asymptomatic but still infected might not. If a patient controls the infection locally, they might not be shedding tons of detectable virus. They might still be capable of transmitting virus, albeit less capable than a patient who is very sick.
Similarly, a patient in the very early stages of infection may test negative because virus titers have not yet met the threshold for detection, regardless of the eventual severity of disease. In both situations, it is not unexpected to have a negative nasal swab test.
The important things to note are that "OMG this patient is asymptomatic" or "OMG this patient tested negative and later tested positive" are not abnormal. These are fully consistent with how viruses replicate, spread, and cause disease.
Asymptomatic patients generally don't transmit virus as efficiently, because they have lower virus titers and because they aren't experiencing clinical features that encourage virus spread (coughing, sneezing, excess mucus production)
And patients with negative test results early in infection may likewise be capable of spreading virus, but are also less likely to do so because they aren't shedding very much virus. This is expected. It's just viruses doing what viruses do.
So I wish the media and some scientists would cut out all the Typhoid Mary hysteria. #nCoV2019 #coronavirus spread is not some aberration or a silent epidemic in which we'll all only find out we're doomed once it's too late.
We need to focus on improving testing, treating patients, and our fundamental understanding of virus pathogenesis (again, s/o to the host response!). The misdirected focus is harming our ability to adequately contain spread and is responsible for some truly shitty policy choices
The cruise ship sitch, involuntary quarantines and travel bans, confusing diagnostic criteria, criminalized epidemiology...these are all further complicating an already complex situation by fixating on this asymptomatic transmission issue, which, again, is just viruses virusing.
people
Dr. Angela Rasmussen
@angie_rasmussen
Virologist at Columbia University. All about the host response to emerging pathogens and systems-level mind-blowing. And pugs. 1X Jeopardy! loser.
Thank you for this post. Dr. Rasmussen explains this very well!
SmithJ
Veteran Member
If this was posted I missed it. I guess they didn't get the memo about the longer incubation time.
abc7.com
Coronavirus outbreak: Quarantine lifted for nearly 200 evacuees at Riverside military base
RIVERSIDE, Calif. (KABC) -- Nearly 200 evacuees ended a two-week quarantine at a Riverside military base where they have been living since flying out of China in the wake of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
Quarantine orders were lifted after 9:30 a.m. for the 195 people held at March Air Reserve Base.
None tested positive for the novel coronavirus, which has claimed more than 1,000 lives overseas. The large group, many who work for the U.S. Department of State, also underwent a final examination before they were cleared to leave.
Those being held were isolated from base personnel - who were not at an increased risk of infection - and not allowed to leave a fenced area, officials say.
Days after arriving, an evacuee tried to leave the base and was ordered to stay for the duration of the incubation period or until otherwise cleared. Officials said the person, who was not identified, did not try to sneak away but merely tried to leave before the 72-hour monitoring period was over. The person later stayed for the 14-day incubation period.
Following their release, evacuees will board buses traveling to Los Angeles International Airport or Ontario International Airport. A couple dozen will stay on the base until Wednesday, when they can secure travel arrangements.
The first confirmed case of novel coronavirus was found among hundreds of people who were evacuated from China to military bases around the United States.
The case was diagnosed among evacuees at the Miramar Marine base in San Diego. A second person is being evaluated for possibly having the virus.
"Both patients are doing well and have minimal symptoms," according to the UC San Diego Health system.
The Miramar group was initially thought to be free of coronavirus. Four individuals had been isolated in a hospital after showing symptoms, but on Sunday federal health officials said they had tested negative and they were sent back to the base.
On Monday morning, however, officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention informed county health officials that "further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive" for novel coronavirus and the person was returned to hospital isolation, UC San Diego Health said.
This is the seventh confirmed case of novel coronavirus in California and the 13th in the United States.
The person confirmed to have the illness arrived at Miramar Feb. 5 from Wuhan. That locked-down city of 11 million is the epicenter of the highly contagious disease, which has killed more than 1,000 people overseas.
Recent chartered flights have sent hundreds of people back to the U.S. They are being held in quarantine at military bases in California, Texas and Nebraska.
Five evacuees taken to Travis Air Force Base, located between San Francisco and Sacramento, were hospitalized after showing symptoms of the virus but none of those possible cases has been confirmed, authorities said.
No symptoms were reported among evacuees at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio or a Nebraska national Guard training base in Omaha.
Coronavirus outbreak: Quarantine lifted for nearly 200 evacuees at Riverside military base
Nearly 200 evacuees ended a two-week quarantine at a Riverside military base where they have been living since flying out of China in the wake of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
abc7.com
Coronavirus outbreak: Quarantine lifted for nearly 200 evacuees at Riverside military base
RIVERSIDE, Calif. (KABC) -- Nearly 200 evacuees ended a two-week quarantine at a Riverside military base where they have been living since flying out of China in the wake of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
Quarantine orders were lifted after 9:30 a.m. for the 195 people held at March Air Reserve Base.
None tested positive for the novel coronavirus, which has claimed more than 1,000 lives overseas. The large group, many who work for the U.S. Department of State, also underwent a final examination before they were cleared to leave.
Those being held were isolated from base personnel - who were not at an increased risk of infection - and not allowed to leave a fenced area, officials say.
Days after arriving, an evacuee tried to leave the base and was ordered to stay for the duration of the incubation period or until otherwise cleared. Officials said the person, who was not identified, did not try to sneak away but merely tried to leave before the 72-hour monitoring period was over. The person later stayed for the 14-day incubation period.
Following their release, evacuees will board buses traveling to Los Angeles International Airport or Ontario International Airport. A couple dozen will stay on the base until Wednesday, when they can secure travel arrangements.
The first confirmed case of novel coronavirus was found among hundreds of people who were evacuated from China to military bases around the United States.
The case was diagnosed among evacuees at the Miramar Marine base in San Diego. A second person is being evaluated for possibly having the virus.
"Both patients are doing well and have minimal symptoms," according to the UC San Diego Health system.
The Miramar group was initially thought to be free of coronavirus. Four individuals had been isolated in a hospital after showing symptoms, but on Sunday federal health officials said they had tested negative and they were sent back to the base.
On Monday morning, however, officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention informed county health officials that "further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive" for novel coronavirus and the person was returned to hospital isolation, UC San Diego Health said.
This is the seventh confirmed case of novel coronavirus in California and the 13th in the United States.
The person confirmed to have the illness arrived at Miramar Feb. 5 from Wuhan. That locked-down city of 11 million is the epicenter of the highly contagious disease, which has killed more than 1,000 people overseas.
Recent chartered flights have sent hundreds of people back to the U.S. They are being held in quarantine at military bases in California, Texas and Nebraska.
Five evacuees taken to Travis Air Force Base, located between San Francisco and Sacramento, were hospitalized after showing symptoms of the virus but none of those possible cases has been confirmed, authorities said.
No symptoms were reported among evacuees at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio or a Nebraska national Guard training base in Omaha.
jward
passin' thru
I read a potentially plausible explanation for declining numbers that basically reminded us that if the streets were full of mild, moderate, and recovered cases, ( as I assume must be true, and have baked into my evals all along ), then the disease may be running out of victims to infect, and thus the numbers be declining legitimately. :: Shruggin :: dunno.
Capt. Eddie
Veteran Member
That's always a consideration when trying to use experimental results in the real world, but I think it will establish what the virus CAN do in a given situation with at least some control over most variables. IMHO it gives us the best opportunity to establish baseline numbers. These are of course not necessarily how it will perform in the wild. As an example the crowded conditions would be about the same as an urban apartment building, but far different from my AO. Sanitation would be on a first world level, not slit trenches. Food hygiene would be excellent, no bat soup etc...
Since I spend half my life at sea (although not on a cruise ship) and I have never been to Singapore, I can probably more easily relate to shipboard conditions than those in Singapore so I do have a bias toward believing the ship data more. YMMV
DazedandConfused
Veteran Member
And the a dose of crotch cricket's for free!
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India's solution to Covid-19 (if this was already posted, I missed it)
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
Saw this picture, an' vented ma nasal cavities empty... Damn! That's a real pisser!
OA
bw
Fringe Ranger
Oh good. I was hoping someone would test the cow urine idea. It seemed promising to me, but I don't have a ready source for it.
This is very bad with an RO of 3.77 this virus is unstoppable without draconian (think china-like) quarantines And even then it probably won't stop and then a death rate of 3%, it's literally a civilization ending event in a year the world won't even look the same I hope and pray that these numbers are wrong with a 60 % infection rate that's 6,700,000 deaths in the US alone
Andy Biotech@AndyBiotech
Largest study to date from China CDC of first 4021 laboratory confirmed cases w/ #2019nCoV #COVID19 from 30 provinces R0 ~3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05) Case fatality rates (CFR) ~3.06% with significant gender difference - Male 4.45% - Female 1.25% https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110
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library lady an' jaw1969, y'all have answered ma questions- all in one fell swoop... Couple this wi' a possible 42 day incubation time, an' ya do have an ELE... Damn. Jes' Damn...
OA
adgal
Veteran Member
Fair use cited.
This is from the .pdf of the report issued by the Los Alamos National Laboratory
The high R0 values we estimated have important implications for disease control. For example, basic theory predicts that the force of infection has to be reduced by 1 − 1 0 to guarantee extinction of the disease. At 0 = 2.2 this fraction is only 55%, but at 0 = 6.7 this fraction rises to 85%. To translate this into meaningful predictions, we use the framework proposed by Lipsitch et al (16) with the parameters we estimated for 2019-nCoV. Importantly, given the recent report of transmission of the virus from asymptomatic individuals (13), we considered the existence of a fraction of infected individuals who is asymptomatic and can transmit the virus (see Supplementary Materials). Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus (Fig. 3B). Given the rapid rate of spread, the sensitivity of control effort effectiveness to asymptomatic infections and the potential of transmission before symptom onset, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling 2019-nCoV once it establishes in a new population (17). Future field, laboratory and modeling studies aimed to address the unknowns, such as the fraction of asymptomatic individuals, the time when individuals become infectious and the existence of superspreaders are needed to accurately predict the impact of various control strategies (9, 17). Fortunately, we see evidence that control efforts have a measurable effect on the rate of spread. Since January 23, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province implemented vigorous control measures, such as closing down transportation and mass gatherings in the city; whereas, other provinces also escalated the public health alert level and implemented strong control measures. We noted that the growth rate of the daily number of new cases in provinces outside of Hubei slowed down gradually since late January (although most of us assume that's because they ran out of testing kits and started to not count people they didn't test) (Fig. 3B). Due to the closure of Wuhan (and other cities in Hubei), the number of cases reported in other provinces during this period shall start to track local infection dynamics rather than imports from Wuhan. We estimated that the exponential growth rate is decreased to 0.14 per day (CI: 0.12 to 0.15 per day) since January 30. Based on this growth rate and an R0 between 4.7 to 6.6 before the control measures, a calculation following the formula in Ref. (14) suggested that a growth rate decreasing from 0.29 per day to 0.14 per day translates to a 50%-59% decrease in R0 to between 2.3 to 3.0. This is in agreement with previous estimates of the impact of effective social distancing during 1918 influenza pandemic (18). Thus, the reduction in growth rate may reflect the impact of vigorous control measures implemented and individual behavior changes in China during the course of the outbreak. (Which I read as - using China's "official" numbers the R0 factor is 4.7 to 6.6 - what would the factor be if they had the real numbers?)
This is from the .pdf of the report issued by the Los Alamos National Laboratory
The high R0 values we estimated have important implications for disease control. For example, basic theory predicts that the force of infection has to be reduced by 1 − 1 0 to guarantee extinction of the disease. At 0 = 2.2 this fraction is only 55%, but at 0 = 6.7 this fraction rises to 85%. To translate this into meaningful predictions, we use the framework proposed by Lipsitch et al (16) with the parameters we estimated for 2019-nCoV. Importantly, given the recent report of transmission of the virus from asymptomatic individuals (13), we considered the existence of a fraction of infected individuals who is asymptomatic and can transmit the virus (see Supplementary Materials). Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus (Fig. 3B). Given the rapid rate of spread, the sensitivity of control effort effectiveness to asymptomatic infections and the potential of transmission before symptom onset, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling 2019-nCoV once it establishes in a new population (17). Future field, laboratory and modeling studies aimed to address the unknowns, such as the fraction of asymptomatic individuals, the time when individuals become infectious and the existence of superspreaders are needed to accurately predict the impact of various control strategies (9, 17). Fortunately, we see evidence that control efforts have a measurable effect on the rate of spread. Since January 23, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province implemented vigorous control measures, such as closing down transportation and mass gatherings in the city; whereas, other provinces also escalated the public health alert level and implemented strong control measures. We noted that the growth rate of the daily number of new cases in provinces outside of Hubei slowed down gradually since late January (although most of us assume that's because they ran out of testing kits and started to not count people they didn't test) (Fig. 3B). Due to the closure of Wuhan (and other cities in Hubei), the number of cases reported in other provinces during this period shall start to track local infection dynamics rather than imports from Wuhan. We estimated that the exponential growth rate is decreased to 0.14 per day (CI: 0.12 to 0.15 per day) since January 30. Based on this growth rate and an R0 between 4.7 to 6.6 before the control measures, a calculation following the formula in Ref. (14) suggested that a growth rate decreasing from 0.29 per day to 0.14 per day translates to a 50%-59% decrease in R0 to between 2.3 to 3.0. This is in agreement with previous estimates of the impact of effective social distancing during 1918 influenza pandemic (18). Thus, the reduction in growth rate may reflect the impact of vigorous control measures implemented and individual behavior changes in China during the course of the outbreak. (Which I read as - using China's "official" numbers the R0 factor is 4.7 to 6.6 - what would the factor be if they had the real numbers?)
adgal
Veteran Member
Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing 3m3 minutes ago
Indonesia might be a hidden epicenter: “man who recently visited the Indonesian resort island of Bali has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to Chinese authorities, raising the possibility there might be undetected cases ofin (Indonesia).“
The young man from England who had been a child-actor in Nanny McPhee died suddenly earlier this week - when he was jogging. His parents said he had no underlying health problems. He was in Indonesia in January.
SSTemplar
Veteran Member
The 1918-20 influenza killed 3% of world population yet here we are.
Spanish flu was estimated up to 20% mortality, and it didn't come near ending civilization.
True it did ..But we didn't have an interconnected world society I didn't say that the humanity would die out. I said that civilization would be ending as we know it now there's not going to be any more widgets or gadgets cheap from China there won't be any more cruise ships cruising around the world there won't be air flights easy to go from one point to another at least for another year humanity is going to go into a very dark period. And that's if somebody that has nukes doesn't decide that they want to take over somebody else
We tend to lose young people regularly from undiagnosed heart/circulatory issues. Every year or so a kid who's passed his physical will collapse on the high school football field at practice and unfortunately die anyway. The young man may have had the coronavirus, or he may have had something else. We may never know for sure. For the sake of everyone else in England, I hope it's "something else."
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20Gauge
TB Fanatic
The base is located in Moreno Valley.....unless Riverside grabbed the land later...I used to live there.If this was posted I missed it. I guess they didn't get the memo about the longer incubation time.
Coronavirus outbreak: Quarantine lifted for nearly 200 evacuees at Riverside military base
Nearly 200 evacuees ended a two-week quarantine at a Riverside military base where they have been living since flying out of China in the wake of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
Coronavirus outbreak: Quarantine lifted for nearly 200 evacuees at Riverside military base
RIVERSIDE, Calif. (KABC) -- Nearly 200 evacuees ended a two-week quarantine at a Riverside military base where they have been living since flying out of China in the wake of the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
Quarantine orders were lifted after 9:30 a.m. for the 195 people held at March Air Reserve Base.
None tested positive for the novel coronavirus, which has claimed more than 1,000 lives overseas. The large group, many who work for the U.S. Department of State, also underwent a final examination before they were cleared to leave.
Those being held were isolated from base personnel - who were not at an increased risk of infection - and not allowed to leave a fenced area, officials say.
Days after arriving, an evacuee tried to leave the base and was ordered to stay for the duration of the incubation period or until otherwise cleared. Officials said the person, who was not identified, did not try to sneak away but merely tried to leave before the 72-hour monitoring period was over. The person later stayed for the 14-day incubation period.
Following their release, evacuees will board buses traveling to Los Angeles International Airport or Ontario International Airport. A couple dozen will stay on the base until Wednesday, when they can secure travel arrangements.
The first confirmed case of novel coronavirus was found among hundreds of people who were evacuated from China to military bases around the United States.
The case was diagnosed among evacuees at the Miramar Marine base in San Diego. A second person is being evaluated for possibly having the virus.
"Both patients are doing well and have minimal symptoms," according to the UC San Diego Health system.
The Miramar group was initially thought to be free of coronavirus. Four individuals had been isolated in a hospital after showing symptoms, but on Sunday federal health officials said they had tested negative and they were sent back to the base.
On Monday morning, however, officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention informed county health officials that "further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive" for novel coronavirus and the person was returned to hospital isolation, UC San Diego Health said.
This is the seventh confirmed case of novel coronavirus in California and the 13th in the United States.
The person confirmed to have the illness arrived at Miramar Feb. 5 from Wuhan. That locked-down city of 11 million is the epicenter of the highly contagious disease, which has killed more than 1,000 people overseas.
Recent chartered flights have sent hundreds of people back to the U.S. They are being held in quarantine at military bases in California, Texas and Nebraska.
Five evacuees taken to Travis Air Force Base, located between San Francisco and Sacramento, were hospitalized after showing symptoms of the virus but none of those possible cases has been confirmed, authorities said.
No symptoms were reported among evacuees at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio or a Nebraska national Guard training base in Omaha.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
While I am in no way playing this down (heck Nightwolf turned pale when I showed him the Los Alamos numbers) I would like to point out that while Polio was horrific, shut down many towns in the US and result in many deaths and disabled people (some to this day or who are having relapses); neither the US nor the world fell totally apart.
The world did fall apart for individuals and families and the economies of many US towns and cities simply shut down for weeks in the Summers.
My mother used to take me to the GRAVES of the children she used to babysit who DIED during the epidemics, it affected her in profound ways and gave me an interest in diseases/natural disasters and history from an early age.
But again, these were not civilization-destroying events, they were family destroying events and local economic disasters but not extinction level either.
The Black Death has caused civilizations to pull back or even fade away (science recently discovered the first known cities of the Bronze Age in Scandinavia, up to nearly 30,000 people suddenly disappeared nearly overnight after an early visit from the disease) but even with 60 percent of the population of Europe gone, in the 14th-century people picked up the pieces and went on.
Even the horrific second wave in the s, that killed a huge portion of the children born since the first wave (no immunity) failed to destroy Europe, though it did forever change the ic outlook, culture and nearly reversed Christianity (a little known side effect was a lot of elites and upper-middle-class types worshiping Satan since God had obviously failed to prevent a major famine and two waves of the Black Death).
A century that starts out with a friendly Jesus with a nice father Joseph whose a carpenter like people you know and Mary who does tablet weaving and knitting, ends with Jesus the Mighty and Stern Judge of the Nations and Mary the Remote Queen of Heaven (this is in artwork, that I can show on another thread).
But while damaged, the world still survived; again I am not playing this down - the 1918 event was so horrific that people simply wouldn't talk about it much until they were in their 80s and 90s (when the serious wave of books came out and the hunt for the virus was going on).
That is very similar to veterans of horrific wars, who often simply don't discuss the worst parts of their experiences except sometimes with other vets; until great old age (if they talk about it at all).
Anyway, my point was just to get some perspective on this - yes a spreading count that bad probably does mean there is going to be a larger pandemic no matter what the world does, but it also doesn't mean it is a total civilization killer - though some places may look very different by next year, we just have to see.
The world did fall apart for individuals and families and the economies of many US towns and cities simply shut down for weeks in the Summers.
My mother used to take me to the GRAVES of the children she used to babysit who DIED during the epidemics, it affected her in profound ways and gave me an interest in diseases/natural disasters and history from an early age.
But again, these were not civilization-destroying events, they were family destroying events and local economic disasters but not extinction level either.
The Black Death has caused civilizations to pull back or even fade away (science recently discovered the first known cities of the Bronze Age in Scandinavia, up to nearly 30,000 people suddenly disappeared nearly overnight after an early visit from the disease) but even with 60 percent of the population of Europe gone, in the 14th-century people picked up the pieces and went on.
Even the horrific second wave in the s, that killed a huge portion of the children born since the first wave (no immunity) failed to destroy Europe, though it did forever change the ic outlook, culture and nearly reversed Christianity (a little known side effect was a lot of elites and upper-middle-class types worshiping Satan since God had obviously failed to prevent a major famine and two waves of the Black Death).
A century that starts out with a friendly Jesus with a nice father Joseph whose a carpenter like people you know and Mary who does tablet weaving and knitting, ends with Jesus the Mighty and Stern Judge of the Nations and Mary the Remote Queen of Heaven (this is in artwork, that I can show on another thread).
But while damaged, the world still survived; again I am not playing this down - the 1918 event was so horrific that people simply wouldn't talk about it much until they were in their 80s and 90s (when the serious wave of books came out and the hunt for the virus was going on).
That is very similar to veterans of horrific wars, who often simply don't discuss the worst parts of their experiences except sometimes with other vets; until great old age (if they talk about it at all).
Anyway, my point was just to get some perspective on this - yes a spreading count that bad probably does mean there is going to be a larger pandemic no matter what the world does, but it also doesn't mean it is a total civilization killer - though some places may look very different by next year, we just have to see.
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
and changed the world forever....we have yet to see if this will....
The highest mortality I saw from the Spanish flu was around 10% in the second wave and that was only an isolated areas So you saying that the Spanish flu killed 20% I would like to see this statistics on that
adgal
Veteran Member
Not that I would EVER drink something like that - but I bet that cow urine is highly alkaline, which could inhibit the growth of the virus.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Cow urine has been used as a "folk" remedy in India for thousands of years, I almost mentioned it in the thread on "weird things in Ancient China" but decided not to.
It is also not uncommon for some people there (usually but not limited to certain types of religious men) to drink their own urine, which isn't supposed to be dangerous but simply seen as "icky" to those of us in the West (and no I wouldn't do it either unless I was dying of thirst, which is how most Westerners feel about it).
As far as I know, cow urine (or people urine) has no actual healing properties but that could change, I mean human poo turns out to have some (in some cases) so I wouldn't totally close the door on it having unknown medical uses but I think the only power it would have over this virus is the placebo effect which is real but only works about 10 percent of the time.
Note: the real placebo effect is when a cure or relief is ACHIEVED, even though the "pill" or "medication" is an inert or sterile substance like sugar or water.
The patient really does recover, but the medicine obviously isn't the real because it isn't medicine (but it may be the amazing powers of the human body and/or divine healing/unknown healing mechanism).
It is also not uncommon for some people there (usually but not limited to certain types of religious men) to drink their own urine, which isn't supposed to be dangerous but simply seen as "icky" to those of us in the West (and no I wouldn't do it either unless I was dying of thirst, which is how most Westerners feel about it).
As far as I know, cow urine (or people urine) has no actual healing properties but that could change, I mean human poo turns out to have some (in some cases) so I wouldn't totally close the door on it having unknown medical uses but I think the only power it would have over this virus is the placebo effect which is real but only works about 10 percent of the time.
Note: the real placebo effect is when a cure or relief is ACHIEVED, even though the "pill" or "medication" is an inert or sterile substance like sugar or water.
The patient really does recover, but the medicine obviously isn't the real because it isn't medicine (but it may be the amazing powers of the human body and/or divine healing/unknown healing mechanism).
ainitfunny
Saved, to glorify God.
We no longer have societies with people that have a basic "common knowledge bank".
Everyone seems to be educated just to the point of "earning a living" in some highly specialized task.
a burn. The social worker can't bake bread. The IT specialist wouldn't know how to can meat.
The musician expects to eat in restaurants daily. Etc etc. etc.
Even driving, in some areas has become an "optional" to learn skill.
Such high specialization is what makes some societies vulnerable.
I expect that a lot of the skills and knowledge that most civilizations HAD but that were kept secret in "guilds" of workers who then fell suddenly due to epidemics, wars, and other historic, mass human die off events, are the reason that a Lot of things, like knowledge of natural medicines, and making cement as strong as Roman CEMENT was lost.
Everyone seems to be educated just to the point of "earning a living" in some highly specialized task.
a burn. The social worker can't bake bread. The IT specialist wouldn't know how to can meat.
The musician expects to eat in restaurants daily. Etc etc. etc.
Even driving, in some areas has become an "optional" to learn skill.
Such high specialization is what makes some societies vulnerable.
I expect that a lot of the skills and knowledge that most civilizations HAD but that were kept secret in "guilds" of workers who then fell suddenly due to epidemics, wars, and other historic, mass human die off events, are the reason that a Lot of things, like knowledge of natural medicines, and making cement as strong as Roman CEMENT was lost.
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bw
Fringe Ranger
I'm planning to stay with the elderberry.
20Gauge
TB Fanatic
Didn't they actually figure it out? Finally.....