CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Heliobas Disciple said:
These are the numbers are coming from China today:


xhnewsapi.zhongguowangshi.com

China sees rising recovery rate of COVID-19 patients

xhnewsapi.zhongguowangshi.com
(fair use applies)

China sees rising recovery rate of COVID-19 patients
Xinhua February 12 , 2020

The proportion of patients who recovered from the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in China had increased to 10.6 percent on Tuesday from the lowest 1.3 percent on Jan. 27, Mi Feng, an official with the National Health Commission, said Wednesday.

The number of cured patients had seen relatively rapid growth, and the epidemic situation also had some positive changes in general due to the country's reinforced measures against the virus, Mi said at a press conference in Beijing.

As of Tuesday, a total of 4,740 people had been discharged from hospitals after recovery.
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I am still thinking they are under reporting the numbers of dead...
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
marsh said:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkCqYQdD-Lo
5:39 min

How novel coronavirus outbreak has disrupted life across China
PBS
•Feb 11, 2020

_______________

Interesting how we are beginning to see more and more indications of discontent about the government's handling of this from Chinese people.
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Seriously,

Who actually though a revolution would even be possible in China this year? The fact it is even possible is amazing to me.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
Population of the US is about 320 million.
In 1975, there were about a million and a half hospital beds.
By 2017, that number had dropped to under a million.
There are 3,553 crematoriums
 
Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
ainitfunny said:
I’ve been warned not to, and don’t want banned from this thread.
You now have the book,chapter, and verse, go read for yourself if you dare..
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I have noted that, on the Bomb, and especially in the threads _initiated_ by a select few.....some thread drifters are created far more equal that others.

I choose to humbly stand by and let the self-importance run it’s course.

Thank you to all those who allow me thread drift in your posts, and especially those who enthusiastically thread drift with me. :)
 
library lady

library lady

Veteran Member
About that cruise ship that couldn't dock anywhere:



HALpartnerSHIPS
@HALpartnerSHIPS

Westerdam is now sailing for Sihanoukville, Cambodia, arriving at 7am local time on Feb 13 & will remain in port for several days for disembarkation. All approvals have been received & we are extremely grateful to the Cambodian authorities for the support//bit.ly/2OO8lHv
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
library lady said:
About that cruise ship that couldn't dock anywhere:

HALpartnerSHIPS
@HALpartnerSHIPS

Westerdam is now sailing for Sihanoukville, Cambodia, arriving at 7am local time on Feb 13 & will remain in port for several days for disembarkation. All approvals have been received & we are extremely grateful to the Cambodian authorities for the support//bit.ly/2OO8lHv
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I wanted to go to Cambodia. You can get a lobster dinner for a dollar.
 
S

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Ragnarok said:
Are we allowed to eat Bat?
In the name of Allah, We praise Him, seek His help and ask for His forgiveness. Whoever Allah guides none can misguide, and whoever He allows to fall astray, none can guide them aright. We bear witness that there is no one (no idol, no person, no grave, no prophet, no imam, no dai, nobody!) worthy of worship but Allah Alone, and we bear witness that Muhammad (saws) is His slave-servant and the seal of His Messengers.

There is no specific injunction from either the Quran or Sunnah whether the bat is halaal or haraam as food for the believers. Allah and His Messenger (saws) have provided us with a short haram list; if the animal is not in that list, then it will be considered halaal as food.

The flesh of swine

Any animal that dies of itself.

Any animal not duly slaughtered Islamically.

Any animal which has canine-type teeth with which it hunts like tigers, lions, wolfs, etc.

Any impure animal.
islamhelpline.net

Are we allowed to eat Bat? - Islamhelpline

Are we allowed to eat Bat? - Encyclopedia of searchable Islamic Questions & Answers - Islamhelpline
islamhelpline.net islamhelpline.net
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This guy never looked at a bat, if he thinks it doesn't fit the last stricture, and is thus harm!

Summerthyme
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
TxGal said:
So, if the incubation period could be over 40 days, and those infected could be non-symptomatic during that time - how many days (months) would people now have to consider self-quarantining to limit exposure to the virus?

To quote the movie 'Jaws' - I think we're gonna need a bigger boat.

Perhaps we all best plan and prep for a much longer period of hunkering down once the decision is made.
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once you say this out loud a couple of times, you will finally realize that there are a lot of people in the US that already have this virus
 
Peter

Peter

Veteran Member
raven said:
Population of the US is about 320 million.
In 1975, there were about a million and a half hospital beds.
By 2017, that number had dropped to under a million.
There are 3,553 crematoriums
Click to expand...
Last week I heard that the US has only 100k ER beds, believe it was on War Room.
 
Seeker22

Seeker22

Has No Life - Lives on TB
marsh said:

Coronavirus: US Postal Service suspends items destined for China and Hong Kong amid outbreak - FluTrackers News and Information

Coronavirus: US Postal Service suspends items destined for China and Hong Kong amid outbreak US Postal Service says it will temporarily suspend shipments to China and Hong Kong 5:56am, 12 Feb, 2020 The United States Postal Service (USPS) will temporarily suspend items destined for China and...
flutrackers.com

Coronavirus: US Postal Service suspends items destined for China and Hong Kong amid outbreak
Today, 05:47 PM

Coronavirus: US Postal Service suspends items destined for China and Hong Kong amid outbreak

  • US Postal Service says it will temporarily suspend shipments to China and Hong Kong
5:56am, 12 Feb, 2020
The United States Postal Service (USPS) will temporarily suspend items destined for China and Hong Kong.

In a note informing its counterparts all over the world, USPS said it was “experiencing significant difficulties” in dispatching.....https://www.scmp.com/news/china/arti...china-and-hong
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And not a word about refusing packages that COME FROM China, etc. That says a lot by saying nothing at all.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
raven said:
Population of the US is about 320 million.
In 1975, there were about a million and a half hospital beds.
By 2017, that number had dropped to under a million.
There are 3,553 crematoriums
Click to expand...
Peter said:
Last week I heard that the US has only 100k ER beds, believe it was on War Room.
Click to expand...
There are not enough hospital beds for even 1/2 of 1 percent of the population.
And they predict that 60% of the population will be infected.
Get comfortable with your recommended method of over the counter treatment - as with China, they will run out of hospital beds very quickly
 
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WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Peter said:
Last week I heard that the US has only 100k ER beds, believe it was on War Room.
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Beds are one thing, and can make-do but back during the H1N1 scare, I saw planning people shaking their heads. One of the biggest bottlenecks (after personnel shortages of course!) ? There aren't nearly enough respirator/ventilators. That's why I say...don't look to the hospitals for answers. If this gets out into the wild, hospitals will eventually turn away virus patients to the purpose of keeping their staff and facilities "clean" and available for birthing, accident victims, cardiac, etc. They aren't gonna be knee-deep warehousing hacking/gacking Corona patients in the hallways.

Buck up, plan and hope the fatality rate is truly only 2%...and 98% recover on their own.
 
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Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Watching Cramer on CNBC and he is taking it seriously. Shares how he bought a case of masks and carries a ‘go’ bag with him since 911. He is talking about a huge economic hit not only in China but around the world even if they get the virus under control. His co-hosts try to moderate his viewpoint. Says you can’t believe the numbers coming out of China. Also interesting that he said he is getting a lot of pressure from Wall Street who just want him to shut up about it. In a confidence game keeping the rubes asleep means everything.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Eunice Yoon‏Verified account @onlyyoontv 8m8 minutes ago

State TV reports President Xi chaired cabinet meeting on #virus prevention. #China to implement prudent yet flexible monetary policy; roll out targeted tax, fee cuts; boost investment projects; lower loan rates to firms; push factories to resume work; vows to avoid mass layoffs.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
bw said:
Tens of thousands, but probably not hundreds of thousands. A month from now this will be different. I read an estimate that this will detonate in the US in mid- to late-March, and that feels about right.
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Not even sure if we are at the tens of thousands yet, but it sure is increasing....There is no doubt about that.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
northern watch said:
Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD 4h4 hours ago

Deeply concerning: Singapore has 3 new cases of #COVID-19, bringing to 50 the country’s total case count. 8 are in intensive care. Singapore, with an excellent public health system, is going to provide far more information on viral epidemiology than China.
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Good! Maybe we can start using Western numbers and such. That at least will allow us to moderate our woo.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
northern watch said:
Eunice Yoon‏Verified account @onlyyoontv 8m8 minutes ago

State TV reports President Xi chaired cabinet meeting on #virus prevention. #China to implement prudent yet flexible monetary policy; roll out targeted tax, fee cuts; boost investment projects; lower loan rates to firms; push factories to resume work; vows to avoid mass layoffs.
Click to expand...
If can understand what they are aiming for, but if the factory isn't running and the people aren't working or getting paid, is that not a mass layoff?

Just asking
 
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rondaben

Veteran Member
A couple of points...

The declining numbers, changes of reporting standards, etc are for one purpose only. It is to give the appearance that this is under control and that "China is open for business" again.

They are in a lose/lose situation. If they do what is necessary to control this (quarantine/limit movement) until mid april their economy will be over as will their reputation as a reliable trade partner. Companies--Countries for that matter--will realize the folly of putting their manufacturing/industrial eggs in the CCP basket. They would likely have a -20%+ growth rate for 2019. 400 million chinese who are in the middle class will suddenly find themselves out of work, with greatly diminished food stocks due to the "swine ebola" and "bird flu" culls, and an already bubbling protest movement.

Their only option is to force people back to manufacturing. You can bet they have burned through the bulk of their foreign currency reserves dealing with the loss of manufacturing, efforts at infection control, and maintaining military readiness. Doing this assures continued infection if not an outright acceleration. The view of the CCP, however, is that human capital is plentiful and easily expended if it restarts the manufacturing engine. You can already see the pressure being exerted by foreign auto manufacturers like Nissan, Toyota, Honda and Hyundai to get the factories running due to shortages in the JIT supply chain causing production losses. Another side effect of this is that it will cause additional infection to spread beyond the borders of china due to business travel. If the scope of the disaster in China becomes known (I fully believe that we have HUMINT and Satellite imagery that can show this) it undercuts their credibility and stokes the fear of the "Chinese Plague". This will again cause the trade flows to reverse as nations pull manufacturing and heavy industry back home.

As far as the new data on the disease...

A R0 of 4.7-6.6 is bad. Smallpox bad. I don't think that this can be controlled with any reasonable measures. The US is in a good position strategically with oil independence, food independence. Our manufacturing base is in shambles, however. I could see a possible "war footing" here where facilities are brought back, converted, etc much as what happened in WWII. At least I hope that is a possibility--particularly with pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

I am still looking for the ethnic distributions of people who have caught the virus and their outcomes. It may be due to lack of info, but the distribution of cases is not normal.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Eric Feigl-Ding‏ @DrEricDing 3m3 minutes ago

Indonesia might be a hidden epicenter: “man who recently visited the Indonesian resort island of Bali has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to Chinese authorities, raising the possibility there might be undetected cases of
1f9a0.png
in (Indonesia).“
 
ChicagoMan74

ChicagoMan74

ULTRA MAGA
Seeker22 said:
And not a word about refusing packages that COME FROM China, etc. That says a lot by saying nothing at all.
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There's been plenty of words...most of which have included the statements,

"viruses don't last very long on surfaces, and that's particularly the case for a very porous surface like cardboard"

and

"because of poor survivability of viruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures"

AND

"there is no evidence from any previous virus that anyone has ever gotten infected from a package"

I tend to believe this more than the speculative fear that this is some super-spreader version of the virus has morphed into some mutation that can exist for days at room temperature on cardboard/paper products. Its not a biological possibility.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
William Yang‏Verified account @WilliamYang120 1h1 hour ago

Shanghai city announced that it will start intensify its screening of incoming mails and deliveries. It will sanitize all mails and deliveries, as well as improving the management of ventilation and transportation
 
EMICT

EMICT

Veteran Member
alpha said:
China has changed the game... According to Dr. Niman - Now, if asymptomatic or mild case, doesn't get counted as suspected.
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Please don't think that I'm a China apologist 'cause I'm not, but I have been involved with the 'counting' of patients in the past during large scale exercises. It is a frickin' nightmare just dealing with small numbers in the range of 100 to 300 patients... sorting (triaging), classifying severity, choosing destinations, and just controlling that small number of patients.

Anything over 1000 patients would start start revealing ever increasing errors in counting and anything over 5000 would get into the realm of WAG (Wild Ass Guess).

That's why when we are talking tens of thousands being counted then all bets are off for accuracy there, here, and elsewhere.

(... as an exercise, once having read this post, start counting normally and when you get to 100,000 see how long it took... hint, you'll be close to 40 hours +/- a few hours)
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Personally, I suspect that there are a lot of undiscovered cases all over Asia, not just Indonesia.

Many of these countries are too poor and the Island nations too spread out, to catch something that starts out as a common cold and then goes to the lungs, especially in more rural areas (or poor city slums).

Especially in countries where "no money-no doctorie" so the poor almost never used them unless they are dying (or in an accident and taken by others); Nightwolf said at least some of the more "primitive" (aka traditional) areas may still have some pretty good herbal and traditional knowledge on how to treat severe breathing problems, probably better than most modern city folks in the West.

He said with something you really can't cure anyway, that may put some areas in the third world actually ahead when treating MODERATE cases of the disease.

He also said that in the West, if things get really bad and a large outbreak occurs, the severely ill will mostly die anyway without modern tech machinery but at least even then, the herbal/traditional knowledge can help people stay more comfortable and it might give them a bit of a chance.
 
Capt. Eddie

Capt. Eddie

Veteran Member
EMICT said:
Please don't think that I'm a China apologist 'cause I'm not, but I have been involved with the 'counting' of patients in the past during large scale exercises. It is a frickin' nightmare just dealing with small numbers in the range of 100 to 300 patients... sorting (triaging), classifying severity, choosing destinations, and just controlling that small number of patients.

Anything over 1000 patients would start start revealing ever increasing errors in counting and anything over 5000 would get into the realm of WAG (Wild Ass Guess).

That's why when we are talking tens of thousands being counted then all bets are off for accuracy there, here, and elsewhere.

(... as an exercise, once having read this post, start counting normally and when you get to 100,000 see how long it took... hint, you'll be close to 40 hours +/- a few hours)
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This is why I'm trying to keep a close eye on info from the cruise ship in Japan. I feel horrible for the people onboard, but it's almost set up like an empirical experiment, fixed sample size, at least basic demographic data about participants, closed environment, etc. I expect the most reliable data no this thing to come from the ship. YMMV of course.
 
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