This is PURE SPECULATION on my part. Do not take this as the truth or even slightly valid--but this is how I am viewing numbers in China. I will explain my rationale.
To evaluate Chinese statistics we need to compare apples to apples. We can't do that with nCoV because frankly, it is primarilly a Chinese problem thus far. We have to look at historical records for a disease occuring in both places with similar properties (disregarding differences in R0, mortality rates, etc because we DON'T have real statistics). I chose influenza.
First assumption: You are no more likely to get the flu in the US or in China. I know that this is a best case scenario because we have more robust vaccinations, better healthcare, public education, etc. on the matter. But lets assume the risk is the same and the death rates are equivalent.
The US reports 10,000-25,000 flu related deaths (October 1-Jan 25--flu season. Others outside of the range are excluded):
Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates
CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.www.cdc.gov
The HIGHEST flu death report for an entire year was in 2018, accounting for 144 cases for the entire year. Assuming that the actual rate of infection, mortality rate are the same, this represents an under-reporting of approximately 70-174 for each actually tabulated case.
Next, we have the population difference. There is approximately 1.4 billion people in China. We will use approximately 350 million people in the US. This represents a correction factor of 4 (there are 4 times as many people, and hence cases/deaths as you would see in the US due to population difference).
At the time of this post there are 361 reported deaths in China. Using our factors, we get:
361 official deaths X 70 low underreported factor X 4 population adjustment =101,080
361 official deaths X 174 high underreported factor X 4 population adjustment = 251,256
For cases we have:
17238 cases X 70 low underreported factor X 4 population adjustment = 4,826,640
17238 cases X 174 high underreported factor X 4 population adjustment = 11,997,648
There are a lot of problems looking at it this way. Are they underreporting at the same factor that they do influenza? This likely won't translate to other countries. Again, this is pure speculation. Treat it as such.
This gives me reason to think it mutates like the common cold meaning there may never be a viable vaccine for it. We aren’t able to build a immunity to the common cold or have a vaccine, because mutates. The common cold is also a Coronavirus just not lethal. Will this be the same way, but always possibly lethal? Will this one be with us forever like the common cold? Will it become as common as the common cold, only more deadly? Will our kids and grandkids forever be bringing it home from the school and daycare pitri dish?Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing 16m16 minutes ago
Eric Feigl-Ding Retweeted SCMP News
Evidence emerging that the new#coronavirusseems to mutate rather fast. Authors say “Close monitoring of the virus’s mutation, evolution, and adaptation is needed”. In a family of 6 infected people, 2 ‘nonsynonymous’ mutations occurred during human-to-human transmission.
It won't.
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 39m39 minutes ago
#Oil tumbles <$50 a barrel as Virus saps Chinese demand. Chinese oil demand said to plunge 20% as outbreak worsens. Brent front month at discount for first time since July
I am more a fan of they just dropped the last few digits method of Chinese statistics.
I can't be!!! The darned taxes are that high if not higher in most places. Heck it seems if they gave away gas in California it still would cost you a $1 or so per gallon.
I am expect a few other countries like Korea being added to the no flights list. That is when it becomes real for a lot of people.
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Probably.... but California with the feds added in taxes at $ 66.65 per gallon..... not sure if that would include any sales tax at about $ 0.10 per dollar. So it is not too far off being true..... rather scary.
After China shuts down/quarantines about 70 million people, we're scare mongering?
Yeah, right. Ok then.
They could have looked at it like we were following their lead.
East TN has been hit HARD with the flu. Our district was closed Friday and today. Tomorrow my daughter goes back to school and I am worried that it’s just not over yet. They have to have a certain percentage out for them to call school off. Wish they would close for a week!Indiana school districts closing for flu
IDOE: Indiana Schools Closed For Flu No Cause For Concern
At least seven Indiana schools have closed due to the flu so far. And several others are reporting high absentee rates. But state education officials say there’s no cause for concern.indianapublicmedia.org
Heard 11 school districts in Tennessee closed for a week due to flu to disinfect, Nashville and Knoxville
My son is an RN and works in a large hospital in ICU cardiac care.
Who knows. But your are correct. We have been seeing a lot of these videos. Makes you wonder what we don't know yet about the virus.
After China shuts down/quarantines about 70 million people, we're scare mongering?
Yeah, right. Ok then.
They could have looked at it like we were following their lead.
I wonder if this is true, or written for such a day when those who work in hospitals only have the surgical masks, to keep them coming to work. If so, it would only matter for a short period of time as workers became sick...proving it did not function as in this article. Only time will tell, and this time it may make it very clear...either way. It appears it will be put to the test.Just an FYI, I'm not endorsing this. I would think the better the mask, the better the protection; But still, read the study. Surgical masks are CLEARLY NOT "USELESS"
Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection
The study reported 'no significant difference in the effectiveness' of medical masks vs. N95 respirators for prevention of influenza or other viral respiratory illness.www.sciencedaily.com
Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection
Date: September 3, 2019
Source: UT Southwestern Medical Center
Summary: The study reported 'no significant difference in the effectiveness' of medical masks vs. N95 respirators for prevention of influenza or other viral respiratory illness.
Researchers may finally have an answer in the long-running controversy over whether the common surgical mask is as effective as more expensive respirator-type masks in protecting health care workers from flu and other respiratory viruses.
A study published today in JAMA compared the ubiquitous surgical (or medical) mask, which costs about a dime, to a less commonly used respirator called an N95, which costs around $1. The study reported "no significant difference in the effectiveness" of medical masks vs. N95 respirators for prevention of influenza or other viral respiratory illness.
"This study showed there is no difference in incidence of viral respiratory transmission among health care workers wearing the two types of protection," said Dr. Trish Perl, Chief of UT Southwestern's Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine and the report's senior author. "This finding is important from a public policy standpoint because it informs about what should be recommended and what kind of protective apparel should be kept available for outbreaks."
Medical personnel -- in particular nurses, doctors, and others with direct patient contact -- are at risk when treating patients with contagious diseases such as influenza (flu). A large study conducted in a New York hospital system after the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, or swine flu, found almost 30 percent of health care workers in emergency departments contracted the disease themselves, Dr. Perl said.
During that pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended using the tighter-fitting N95 respirators, designed to fit closely over the nose and mouth and filter at least 95 percent of airborne particles, rather than the looser-fitting surgical masks routinely worn by health care workers, Dr. Perl said. But some facilities had trouble replenishing N95s as supplies were used.
In addition, there are concerns health care workers might be less vigilant about wearing the N95 respirators since many perceive them to be less comfortable than medical masks, such as making it harder to breathe and being warmer on the wearer's face.
Earlier clinical studies comparing the masks and respirators yielded mixed results, said Dr. Perl, also a Professor of Internal Medicine who holds the Jay P. Sanford Professorship in Infectious Diseases.
The new study was performed at multiple medical settings in seven cities around the country, including Houston, Denver, Washington, and New York, by researchers at the University of Texas, the CDC, Johns Hopkins University, the University of Colorado, Children's Hospital Colorado, the University of Massachusetts, the University of Florida, and several Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals. Researchers collected data during four flu seasons between 2011 and 2015, examining the incidence of flu and acute respiratory illnesses in the almost 2,400 health care workers who completed the study.
The project was funded by the CDC, the Veterans Health Administration, and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), which is part of the U.S. Health and Human Services Department and was founded in the years after Sept. 11, 2001, to help secure the nation against biological and other threats.
"It was a huge and important study -- the largest ever done on this issue in North America," Dr. Perl said.
In the end, 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections occurred in the N95 groups versus 193 among medical mask wearers, according to the report. In addition, there were 2,734 cases of influenza-like symptoms, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illnesses, and acute or laboratory-detected respiratory infections (where the worker may not have felt ill) in the N95 groups, compared with 3,039 such events among medical mask wearers.
"The takeaway is that this study shows one type of protective equipment is not superior to the other," she said. "Facilities have several options to provide protection to their staff -- which include surgical masks -- and can feel that staff are protected from seasonal influenza. Our study supports that in the outpatient setting there was no difference between the tested protections."
Dr. Perl said she expects more studies to arise from the data collected in this report; she now plans to investigate the dynamics of virus transmission to better understand how respiratory viruses are spread.
