ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
FJ
@Natsecjeff

The propaganda I'm seeing against the King of Jordan and his government is incredible in scope and widespread on Islamist social media & Telegram, across continents and in multiple languages. The coming weeks may be difficult for Jordan. I hope Israel and the US are ready to defend Jordan when Iran makes the push.

I also hope that the governments in other Muslim countries also take anti-Jordan propaganda in their public sphere seriously. It should be strongly discouraged. Understand this: Destabilisation of Jordan will be a disaster for the region

6:05 PM · Apr 14, 2024
908
Views
The Hashemites could very well be overthrown by the people living in Jordan, including a ton of people displaced from Palestine.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
Claims have recently surfaced that Russia has officially stated that if the US attacks Iran proper, they will intervene. Anyone have any information on this.
The US won’t intervene based on the current Iranian attack imho, and Russia knows this so this is political posturing.

If Israel intervenes Russia has every excuse to say well we said US, so not our game.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Claims have recently surfaced that Russia has officially stated that if the US attacks Iran proper, they will intervene. Anyone have any information on this.
I'm searching the other thread for you now, Johnny, to find that post. (It's only 4 pages so hopefully it won't take me long). When I find it I will post the link (I'm not allowed to copy the post). Will be back in a few.

I think this threat is significant so it's good to document it.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Claims have recently surfaced that Russia has officially stated that if the US attacks Iran proper, they will intervene. Anyone have any information on this.
Found it.

Came from Amir Tsarfati..

Only one line--so hopefully OK if I post?--
"The smallest American attack on Iranian territory will force us to support Iran."

On page 398 of the thread. (only pages 397, 398, 399, and 400 cover the attack, beginning about 5 pm EDT which is when I first saw it yesterday).

Link: INTL - "Israel is in an all-out war. " MAJOR Palestinian Ground Incursion From Gaza Into Israel Ongoing. Hundreds Killed. (Please watch for dups #1881)
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Somehow, if Israel were getting ready to hit Iran tomorrow, I don't think they'd be letting the schools reopen (if I'm reading this correctly):

From Israel Defense Forces, on Telegram

IDF: Following a situational assessment, it was determined that as of 00:00 Israel time tonight (Monday), changes will be made to the Home Front Command’s defensive guidelines.

As part of the changes, it was decided to restore educational activities across Israel. In the areas of the northern border and communities near the Gaza Strip, educational activities will resume in subject with restrictions. In addition, the restriction on gatherings is removed in green areas.

Attached is the Home Front Command's defensive guidelines: https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC15042422

The instructions published on the official Home Front Command channels must be followed. The full instructions are updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
If they do attack, it will be at night time, when it is dark and long after the children are home. At that time, they will tell people schools closed tomorrow. Schools are expecting it - "soon" so are fully prepared for it to happen quickly and they are the most prepared school system in the world for immediate response to changing situations.

School went to session today and now the kids are home as dusk falls on Israel.
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
The time difference between CST (Dallas) is 8 hours.

Midnight is 0.00 in Israeli and 4 pm CST.

Texican....
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
If they do attack, it will be at night time, when it is dark and long after the children are home. At that time, they will tell people schools closed tomorrow. Schools are expecting it - "soon" so are fully prepared for it to happen quickly and they are the most prepared school system in the world for immediate response to changing situations.

School went to session today and now the kids are home as dusk falls on Israel.
Just heard via the IDF site on Telegram--sirens sounding in northern Israel.
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!

5:11 AM IDT (UTC+3)​

Jerusalem, Israel • Monday, April 15, 2024
Yup, I goofed, the dark I am watching is dawn, not dusk. Still they have shelters in every school, in every residential and business building and shelters every block or so in residential areas that families that live there stock. This isnt new to them, they all know what to do.
 
Last edited:

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Yup, I goofed, the dark I am watching is dawn, not dusk. Still they have shelters in every school, in every residential and every business and school and shelters every block or so in residential areas that families that live there stock. This isnt new to them, they all know what to do.
Question bethshaya--in your experience, is it so common a thing for there to be "sirens" going off in Israel, would that be a notable event that I should post, or not?
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
Question bethshaya--in your experience, is it so common a thing for there to be "sirens" going off in Israel, would that be a notable event that I should post, or not?
It is. At least several times a week at least one city is hearing sirens.

I know in Sderot, it is a few times a week rockets come over, sirens go off and they take cover from incoming rockets.

However, these are NOT the standard rockets and not in the usual amount or way, so in that, it is unique and widespread. Post worthy!

As of late Sunday night, they have cancelled school until further notice.

 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
It is. At least several times a week at least one city is hearing sirens.

I know in Sderot, it is a few times a week rockets come over, sirens go off and they take cover from incoming rockets.

However, these are NOT the standard rockets and not in the usual amount or way, so in that, it is unique and widespread. Post worthy!

As of late Sunday night, they have cancelled school until further notice.

Thanks! That was quick--an hour ago school is on; one hour later school is off.
Good thing they're pro-active, though; would be horrible if kids were on buses in transit and bombs started falling.
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yup, I goofed, the dark I am watching is dawn, not dusk. Still they have shelters in every school, in every residential and business building and shelters every block or so in residential areas that families that live there stock. This isnt new to them, they all know what to do.
I didn't realize that you goofed. I just wanted to know for myself what time it was there and decided to share it.
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
Thanks! That was quick--an hour ago school is on; one hour later school is off.
Good thing they're pro-active, though; would be horrible if kids were on buses in transit and bombs started falling.
Since it is outbound, I think that was in their planning, not wanting people on their way home from work or school.

Typically they wouldnt do anything in the light of day anyway for many reasons. Not always, but usually.

I dont think it is too far off. I wouldnt be shocked to find out they are on their way tonight, but also wouldnt shock me if they didnt do anything for days either. But since they cancelled school until further notice, my guess is that it is sometime tonight into tomorrow.
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
Even though this sounds completely woo woo crazy, it is factual and well documented.
The October attack on Israel boils down to the red heifers.
Those heifers loom over the entire situation and the clock is ticking.
The various countries engaged in tension and warfare are not going to stand down for long.
Too much is at stake, along with centuries of anticipation.
This is what is fueling the hemorrhaging of US tax dollars. Your blood sweat tears and labor are paying for this.

So when we read today that the US has pressured Israel not to respond to Iran, that brief stop cannot last.

(this article has already been posted but I link it just in case somebody doesn't know -- it is Newsweek, mainstream news, and there are many articles about this situation)

Holy War: Red Cows, Gaza and the End of the World​

 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Just found this--I know something like this is posted but am not sure this particular one is:


1713148598360.png

Last night's interceptions of ballistic missiles from Iran cost Israel 4.5 billion shekels ($1 billion).

That was just one night!

Imagine multiple nights.

For those "experts" out there who think a war with Iran is easy, best you keep doing what you do best which is not related to this topic.
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
I am watching Source Global Live if anyone wants a live feed of Israel, Iran and Syria cameras. Was pretty amazing to watch last night and the mods there are nice. Just no religion posts in that chat. There are people from all faiths in there, but its civilized or taken care of real fast if it isnt. I'm WildandFreeRv in that chat. Come say hi!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omzgCCPgIIA
 

jward

passin' thru
John Ʌ Konrad V
@johnkonrad

Drones will INCREASE the cost of war for the not decrease it

I’m getting lots of comments about how warfare is rapidly changing with the proliferation of cheap drones, cyber, informational warfare and other low cost methods.

The incredible job Ukraine is doing in defense & what the Houthis are doing offensively are prime examples

Both are running relatively (key word relative) inexpensive campaigns

This type of warfare is new in practice but has been predicted by an increasing number of military experts over the last 10 years

Author @peterwsinger
was banned from the Air Force war college for suggesting it only to be invited back more recently

I have been far behind the likes of Singer but I mention it because I know first hand that discussion of drone swarms was met with resentment & skepticism as late as 6 months ago

Now that the majority of military thinkers have (some begrudgingly) accepted the extent of the problem the has emerged a new threat: rosy budget predictions

It goes lime this: amassing large numbers of drones is relatively cheap and effective so large bombers and ships are no longer necessary.

We can save money and increase lethality by investing in large numbers of drones. This is the general basis for the DoD’s replicator project

I personally am a great believer in these new forms of warfare and believe they should be fully funded and developed. They will increase lethality BUT will save us money

The reason is tonnage. Wars require people, people require food and parts and shelter and ammunition and defense

Drones cannot supply armies.

Even if drones could supply or replace armies and navies war is politics by other means and politics requires caring for people.

America is too widely spread and our way of life & future is inextricably linked to our alliances. These alliances will get attacked and not just militarily… their supply lines of food, energy & goods will be squeezed

Food, energy and goods of sufficient quantity & weight that they could not possibly be airlifted

The Berlin airlift was a monumental undertaking that required a vast majority of our nation’s air resources- resources that were more abundant then - & still almost failed

We can not fight an vast & powerful enemy like China alone, we need allies and those allies need supplies

Those supplies need to come via ship, there is no other way, ships that will be shot at, damaged, run aground, run into mines. Ships that will require ports that are targeted

Drone swarms are not expensive but the protection, repair & replacement of great fleets of merchant ships are. Ships that can only be protected by naval convoy

Now those ships could possibly be protected by defensive drone swarms but anyone who this is practical doesn’t understand the defense industry & commercial sector. Even 6 months after the Houthis first struck, both sides have little to no desire to put basic passive protection like flares on cargo ships

We aren’t even considering basic cwis in navy owned and navy operated USNS resupply ships. I know because I asked @SECNAV
this question personally last week

So lethality can be obtained relatively cheap with drones but logistics and supply can not be defended & repaired by technology alone

And this is NOT a new lesson. The use of submarines greatly reduced the cost of sinking a ship in WW2, Germany didn’t need a huge navy to cripple supply lines to Europe, but we needed to build a great fleet of escort destroyer and carriers to protect them. This drove our war spending up incredibly

We used submarines too in the Pacific & it helped immeasurably but marines still needed to land on islands and fight.

So drones and cyber & other modern weapons WILL change the face of warfare but will have significantly less impact on reducing logistics and infrastructure costs. Logistics & infrastructure that will become more vulnerable and we will have to spend more to defend and replace because of these new warfare tools

Last edited
9:43 PM · Apr 14, 2024
from Massachusetts, USA
838
Views
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Even though this sounds completely woo woo crazy, it is factual and well documented.
The October attack on Israel boils down to the red heifers.
Those heifers loom over the entire situation and the clock is ticking.
The various countries engaged in tension and warfare are not going to stand down for long.
Too much is at stake, along with centuries of anticipation.
This is what is fueling the hemorrhaging of US tax dollars. Your blood sweat tears and labor are paying for this.

So when we read today that the US has pressured Israel not to respond to Iran, that brief stop cannot last.

(this article has already been posted but I link it just in case somebody doesn't know -- it is Newsweek, mainstream news, and there are many articles about this situation)

Holy War: Red Cows, Gaza and the End of the World​

Yep. I think I mentioned this somewhere. Religious crazies, MANIPULATING events to "prove" their religious hypothesis and psychologically weak belief systems, trying to drag this world into a blood fest gut ripping "religious" end to the human race; well, except for those chosen ( in their underground bunkers we paid for) to survive and rule the remaining little people who remain; those resembling the mud covered peasants in Monty Python's The Holy Grail.

My God doesn't need man (or woman) to carry out the will of IT's creation.

Quite frankly, I think Satanists have taken over the West, and are just playing some religionists as fools and tools.

But that is just me.

The GOD I believe in doesn't need man (or woman) to carry out IT's will. It created everything, and still runs it all. If 'men' need to carry out certain physical actions that cause the death of millions or billions, it isn't from God, it is from demons.
 
They are Persians. They are not Arabs. They are not Afghani's. They are not Paki's nor Indian muslims. Iran is sophisticated, and when I was very young it was a secular country, as was even Afghanistan. Too bad the religious nuts took over. The big question who STARTED that? Someone funded, supported, and trained the original ayatollah khamani.
What was zero doing back then?
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
No matter how insane and crazy WE think it is, THEY believe it and it fuels their ACTIONS.
The point is, there's a deadline, and it all has to happen soon, they all believe.
So there cannot be a long pause in the action.
This war is going to escalate past any rational reasoning.
I believe a huge war of this size will bring down the entire financial system.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Somehow, if Israel were getting ready to hit Iran tomorrow, I don't think they'd be letting the schools reopen (if I'm reading this correctly):

From Israel Defense Forces, on Telegram

IDF: Following a situational assessment, it was determined that as of 00:00 Israel time tonight (Monday), changes will be made to the Home Front Command’s defensive guidelines.

As part of the changes, it was decided to restore educational activities across Israel. In the areas of the northern border and communities near the Gaza Strip, educational activities will resume in subject with restrictions. In addition, the restriction on gatherings is removed in green areas.

Attached is the Home Front Command's defensive guidelines: https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC15042422

The instructions published on the official Home Front Command channels must be followed. The full instructions are updated on the National Emergency Portal and the Home Front Command app.

The other way to look at that is that the schools throughout Israel have probably got better shelters than the "safe rooms" at home and they have their own QRFs in the form of armed teachers so they might in fact be doing this to put the Iranians "at ease" in a prelude to a strike.
 

jward

passin' thru

Oil heading towards $100 fuelled by Iran’s attack on Israel​



Israel claimed to have intercepted 99% of the incoming weapons and said one seven-year-old girl, in a critical condition from flying shrapnel, was the only casualty.

In an unusual move, Oslo-based analyst Rystad Energy issued a statement yesterday evening revealing that its Geopolitical Risk index increased to 1.35 in the week to April 13th, up from 1.22 the week before and the highest figure so far this year. Over the last two days, up to 14:00 hrs UK time, the index rose further, to 1.41.

Rystad warns that if global attempts by countries coordinated by the US to persuade the combatants against further hostilities were to fail, geopolitical energy premiums would rise significantly. The firm has calculated the ‘fair value’ of Brent crude for the month of April based purely on supply and demand fundamentals, at around $84 per barrel.
Spot Brent closed at $92 per barrel on Friday, up 10% on the week. The increase, therefore, could be attributed almost entirely to the ongoing conflict, Rystad said. Meanwhile, oil prices are likely to rise further on Monday.
Rystad
Political risk graph

The analysts pointed out that the response from OPEC+ is a significant unknown so far. Increasing geopolitical tension has undoubtedly complicated the cartel’s task of managing the oil market. Currently, the group has extended its voluntary production cuts until the end of June with a decision on whether to extend the cuts likely to be taken at the group’s Ministerial Meeting on June 2nd. In light of developments this weekend, however, a meeting before then cannot be ruled out.

OPEC+ currently has about six million barrels a day of spare capacity which could be brought on stream if the conflict were to escalate, Rystad said. It cited several reasons for this to be a likely course of action, including the fact that higher oil prices would fuel inflation in western economies and prompt central banks to postpone any monetary normalisation efforts, leading to weaker global economic growth.
If the Rystad analysis proves correct, higher oil production could dampen rising energy prices and generate more demand for tankers.

Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. Seatrade, a trading name of Informa Markets (UK) Limited.

 

jward

passin' thru
toddstarnes
@toddstarnes

So the United States signed off on Iran's attack on Israel "within certain limits." They knew exactly how it was going to go down. And now, Biden will use that attack to convince Republicans to sign off on a joint military aid package that will ultimately provide funding for Ukraine -- and a few bucks for Israel.

8:02 PM · Apr 14, 2024
14.8K
Views
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

Israeli Defense Officials have now Submitted a “Spectrum of Response Options” for last night’s Large-Scale Iranian Attack to Prime Minister Netanyahu and rest of the Israeli Government, with these Options likely to be discussed at the next Meeting of the War Cabinet; according to Officials these Response Options range from “Strikes on Iran to No Strikes on Iran” as well as many Scenarios in between, with it believed that a Decision will likely be made Monday on which Option to utilize.

6:32 PM · Apr 14, 2024
188.7K
Views
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
toddstarnes
@toddstarnes

So the United States signed off on Iran's attack on Israel "within certain limits." They knew exactly how it was going to go down. And now, Biden will use that attack to convince Republicans to sign off on a joint military aid package that will ultimately provide funding for Ukraine -- and a few bucks for Israel.

8:02 PM · Apr 14, 2024
14.8K
Views

And Biden is trying to keep the DNC's "crazy left" from trying to remove him by doing this....
 

jward

passin' thru
abcnews.go.com


Israel-Gaza live updates: WH says it's up to Israel how to respond to Iran's attack​



LIVE UPDATES
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, the IDF said.
April 14, 2024, 7:54 PM ET
Iran on Saturday night unleashed a retaliatory strike against Israel, sending a volley of more than 300 uncrewed drones and missiles toward targets throughout the country, Israeli military officials said. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said.
The attack on Israel came more than six months after Hamas terrorists invaded the country on Oct. 7, after which the Israeli military began its bombardment of the Gaza Strip.

US forces destroy 80 drones, at least 6 ballistic missiles​

U.S. military forces destroyed 80 drones and at least six ballistic missiles out of the more than 300 launched from Iran, according to CENTCOM Sunday.
The drone number is an update from Saturday evening, when the U.S. said it had intercepted 70 drones.
CENTCOM said the total included a ballistic missile that was on its launcher vehicle and seven drones before they left the ground.
-ABC News' Anne Flaherty

Israeli military submitted a 'spectrum of response options' to the government​

Israeli military officials have submitted "a wide range of options" to respond to Iran’s missile strike Saturday, Israeli Defense Federation (IDF) spokesperson Peter Lerner told reporters early Monday morning in Tel Aviv.
The IDF’s response could be "strike or no strike," according to Lerner, who noted, there are "a lot of different scenarios in between those two."
The Israeli government will "decide on the steps forward" as early as Monday or within the coming days, Lerner said.
When asked about Iran’s "substantial" missile strike being intercepted with minimal damage, Lerner said, "Just because we were successful in intercepting, we shouldn't underestimate what Iran did."
"We can't take that lightly," Lerner said.

Israel reopens schools, relaxes restrictions on gatherings​

The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has eased homefront command guidelines after closing schools and limiting gatherings ahead of Iran’s missile strike Saturday.
"It was decided to restore educational activities across Israel," the IDF said in a statement early Monday, local time. The changes went into effect at midnight, according to Israel's Home Front Command.
Communities near the northern border and the Gaza Strip can also resume educational activities "in subject with restrictions."
-ABC News' William Gretzky

Congressional party leaders reach 'consensus' on aid to Israel and Ukraine, Schumer says​

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said that during a Sunday call between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders there was "consensus" that Congress needs to act quickly to send aid to both Israel and Ukraine.
Schumer said at a news conference in New York that "hopefully" something can be accomplished this coming week to aid both countries.
Earlier Sunday, Biden spoke to Senate Majority Leader Schumer, House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Schumer said the best way to send aid to Israel and Ukraine is for the House to take up and pass the Senate-approved national security supplemental that includes aid to both countries. The Senate passed the $95 billion package in February, but Johnson has not brought it to the floor for a vote.
"The best way to help Israel rebuild its anti-missile and anti-drone capacity is by passing that supplemental immediately. As I said, Israel expended about over a billion dollars in defending itself and the security supplemental would replenish the kind of anti-missile and anti-drone defenses that are in the Arrow, in the David's Sling, and in the Iron Dome," Schumer said.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said in a statement Saturday that the House would change its legislative schedule this week to "consider legislation that supports our ally Israel and holds Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable," but it's not yet clear what legislation that will be, or how drastically it might depart from the Senate-passed bill.
-ABC News' Allison Pecorin and Rachel Scott
 

jward

passin' thru
(houti response was another drone let loose on Elliot)

Amit Shah (Parody)
@Motabhai012

U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood earlier at an Emergency Meeting of the U.N. Security Council, following last night’s Iranian Attack against Israel, directly Addressed the Iranian Representative when he stated, “Let me be Clear, if Iran or its Proxies take Actions against the U.S. or further Action against Israel, Iran will be held Responsible.”
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
No matter how insane and crazy WE think it is, THEY believe it and it fuels their ACTIONS.
The point is, there's a deadline, and it all has to happen soon, they all believe.
So there cannot be a long pause in the action.
This war is going to escalate past any rational reasoning.
I believe a huge war of this size will bring down the entire financial system.
Well, a lot of people agree the financial system is toast, so some crazies think WAR is the only way out. They have to blame something and someone before lampposts and ropes loom in their near future (not to mention the effects from the Jab and those ramifications).

And then there are blood sacrifices and demons. Yes, I think that sacrifice of the Red Heifers could very well have a great deal to do with the sudden escalation in violence. Over all the last decades when has Iran been bold enough to directly attack the 'little Satan'?

I saw claims that rabbi's were petitioning the Jerusalem Police to be allowed to sacrifice the cow IN the muslim mosque in order to purify the mount for the new Temple of Solomon. True of not I can't say, but it could be. Imagine that minor insult to the muzzie's prophet.
 
Top