ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war

Shadow

Shadow

Swift, Silent,...Sleepy
Wildweasel said:
I have to wonder if the F-35's full capabilities were demonstrated? There's always been talk that the ECM suite and radar could be used to deliver a microwave pulse to disable the electronics of an attacking aircraft.

Maybe it could be used against missiles as well? Get a radar lock-on, send a pulse and the missile goes out of control. F-35s flying over Iraq would be close enough to get a radar lock shortly after launch and missiles in their boost phase would be moving slowly, so plenty of time for engagement. Maybe even for the missiles to fall on Iran.
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That would certainly be an embarrassment to the enlisted men who launched them. I wonder how many they would shoot before realizing it wasn't a faulty launch procedure?

Shadow
 
Wildweasel

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
jward said:
FJ
@Natsecjeff
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?
APRIL 14, 2024 12:27
Updated: APRIL 14, 2024 17:38



Iran took its best shot (or a very significant one) at Israel with over 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and over 100 drones, totaling over 300 forms of aerial attack from many different sides and vectors.

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.

Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.

Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries' opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.

The main aim would be to eliminate Iran's air defense​

They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.

An Iranian missile system is seen during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022. (credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Their job would be to eliminate Iran’s serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.

Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel’s F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.

There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.

Fordow’s main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.

But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.

That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran’s access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.

Such an operation might not be free.

Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.

Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or midway landing spot as part of the plan.

On the positive side, despite the massive number of aerial attacks by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, which reportedly also included F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft at times, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and has never lost an F-35.

Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran to assist close-up could be lost one way or another.

There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities where Iran has moved forward on weaponization issues – though these facilities might be a lower priority as they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.

As of mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence formed a new unit of dozens of officers with one goal: to collect and assess intelligence to develop a massive target bank for hitting Iran far beyond just its nuclear program.

The targets were to include key power sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to bring them to their knees much the same way IDF intelligence had collected intelligence for years on an enormous number of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.

Israel might not undertake a huge attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If it does, it might not open up the much larger target bank of IRGC targets.

Maintaining US and allied support is also a crucial value.

On the other hand, the main reason not to attack Iran for years has been the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas, and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.

Being that most of the worst case scenarios have already transpired – and even worse including Yemen who was not viewed as for sure taking part in a theoretical larger war as they have in fact in the current very real war – there would seem to be a lot less of a reason to hold back at this moment than at anytime in decades.

How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
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Israeli cruise missiles launched from their subs off the southern coast of Iran could block the entrances to those tunnel complexes with exposure of aircrews to hostile fire.
 
alchemike

alchemike

Veteran Member
Abert said:
First NATO - by definition - is a defensive operation. Granted they have taken part in a number of offensive actions attacking other nations FIRST. But in the end there is NO requirement that they act in lock step. Even in the often called out Article 5 - an attack against one is an attack against all - does not require all members to take military action. Even under Article 5 each nation gets to decide on what and how much they will do - they can even sit out the conflict.
As for Turkey - they are foremost a Muslim nation - an attack on another Muslim nation - especially acting in support of Israel would politically be impossible.
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Then Turkey is an enormous security risk.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
colonel holman said:
Could be an Iranian war plan. On the first Iranian attack, throw few hundreds lightweight generic drones and missiles at Israel, discovering how Israel defends itself and sap off some of Israel’s (and its allies’) very expensive defensive tools, while expending only low-dollar ordnance. Then fine tune the real Iranian offensive as a response to a measured Israeli offensive revenge response (a response that, as a bonus, looks like it may only go without US active support).

That real Iranian response would be all-out, full-blast, flood-the-zone with 100,000 thousand missiles/drones from Iran and its heavily-equipped allies Hezbollah (120-150,000 of its own missile) and from Shia rebels in Syria and Iraq and Yemen (compared to the mere few hundred incoming during Iran’s first time around launches). No way could Israel defenses keep up with that inundation. Could easily be a ELE for Israel, Especially if US is pissed at Israel for not standing down on their revenge attack, and will not (and cannot) give a timely response on this full-fledged attack. Especially ominous if the Iraqi fundamentalist leaders do not fear nuclear conflagration (or have arranged with Russia for a nuclear umbrella that Washington decides “just aint worth fighting.”

Been mentioned already but that is what I fear is coming
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And the likely Israeli response to such a coordinated attack with high casualties in Israel would be "Old Testamental" in nature.
 
J

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
CaryC said:
Just talking and giving opinion, nothing more:

They absolutely have won in Ukraine. It's just a matter of the collective west recognizing it.

Saw an article over at zerohedge this am where an Army guy of some sort was testifying in Congress, that Russia now has the largest Army on the continent. They are a big dog now.

From sources we can't talk about, Russia has "been destined" to move into the Middle East for a while now. Even without that source, it should be at least contemplated, that Russia has pay back on their mind. Against the west. For how they have been treated because of Ukraine. And that a hot war doesn't have to be on the horizon with the west. Just an economic one. And oil is at the top of that list. In conjunction with BRICS+.

While the US came in as the big dog backing Israel, a weakened US, and we really are weak, not being able to supply a small army with 155 shells (what's up with that?????) to an economy that can't support a war. 34 trillion in debt. Mumble mouth and Karens as our leadership. I'm not sure weak is accurate. There is coming a time when the US either can't or won't back Israel (might loose votes ya know) and that will make Russia the big dog in the ME who will back Iran, and then let's see what happens.

Don't think that will be the case in the next few days but maybe Nov. or four years from Nov.
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The USA is hovering on the brink of financial collapse. Attacking Iran directly we could be on the brink of a military disaster. I know most here are unable to even psychologically contemplate it, but the WORLD is not supporting us militarily any longer, not in Ukraine, not in Israel, and yes, we CAN be defeated.

Iran has a strong military capability, I for one don't care to see how strong it is used against us. It is obvious to all but the most brain dead that the US (and Europe) are currently controlled by powers that WANT us (and Europe) destroyed as a strong Christian nations that get to select who leads them. And it is not ONLY the Chinese; but most are too blind to see who it is (and it is not just the WEF). How many pretend to hate our very government but are chomping at the bit to follow it into a large regional, if not global war? Madness, and stupidity.

We as a nation are already swirling down the financial toilet bowl. A large Regional War in the M.E. will hasten that, without doubt, this very year.
 
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Mark D

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
Johnny Twoguns said:
Iran has a strong military capability, I for one don't care to see how strong it is used against us. It is obvious to all but the most brain dead that the US (and Europe) are currently controlled by powers that WANT us (and Europe) destroyed as a strong Christian nations...
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Take a look at how many Western leaders adhere to Mr. Kalergi's thought process... How many of them openly participate in his legacy.
 
J

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Mark D said:
Take a look at how many Western leaders adhere to Mr. Kalergi's thought process... How many of them openly participate in his legacy.
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Yes, somewhat. There are many forces at work to destroy White Euro Culture and traditions, and POWER. Those in charge and directing the destruction use every 'philosophical' tool available, the majority of which they have invented. I don't think there is a single group of politicians or parties anywhere in the West that are not employees, or manipulated by the same group, just call them the money lenders. There are factions of course, I don't believe in a single Smersh like entity as in the James Bond books, or the In Like Flint movies (or Undercover Brother for that matter :lol: ).
 
D

Donghe Surfer

Veteran Member
Dash said:
This isn’t true. Freedom of religion is guaranteed in Israel.

From embassies.gov.il

The Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel (1948) guarantees freedom of religion for all. Each religious community is free, by law and in practice, to exercise its faith, to observe its holidays and weekly day of rest, and to administer its internal affairs. Each has its own religious council and courts, recognized by law and with jurisdiction over all religious affairs and matters of personal status such as marriage and divorce. Each has its own unique places of worship, with traditional rituals and special architectural features developed over the centuries.

https://embassies.gov.il/holysee/AboutIsrael/Pages/Religious-Freedom-.aspx#

Below is an AP article from last year about Netanyahu blocking a bill against Christian proselytizing.

Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing

Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing​


JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said he would prevent the passage of a proposal by a powerful ally in his governing coalition to punish Christian proselytizing with jail time.

The proposal had raised an uproar with evangelical Christians — one of Israel’s strongest and most influential supporters in the United States.

The bill was introduced in January by a pair of ultra-Orthodox Jewish lawmakers, including Moshe Gafni, who heads the parliament’s Finance Committee. It says soliciting someone to convert their faith should be punishable by one year in prison and solicitation to convert a minor would be punishable with a two-year sentence.

“Recently, the attempts of missionary groups, mainly Christians, to solicit conversion of religion have increased,” it said.

The bill was never advanced, but it drew widespread attention in the American evangelical world this week after All Israel News, an evangelical news site, reported on it.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu announced on Twitter: “We will not advance any law against the Christian community.”

Gafni said he had introduced the bill as a procedural matter, as he has done in the past, and there were no plans to advance it.

READ MORE
Evangelical Christians, particularly in the United States, are among the strongest backers of Israel, viewing it as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy, with some seeing it as the harbinger of a second coming of Jesus Christ and the end of days.

Israel has long welcomed evangelicals’ political and financial support, and it has largely shrugged off concerns about any hidden religious agenda. But most Jews view any effort to convert them to Christianity as deeply offensive, a legacy of centuries of persecution and forced conversion at the hands of Christian rulers. In part, because of those sensitivities, evangelical Christians rarely target Jews.

Joel Rosenberg, editor in chief of All Israel News, welcomed Netanyahu’s announcement, which comes at a time of domestic turmoil in Israel over his plan to overhaul the country’s legal system and rising tensions with the Biden administration over West Bank settlement activities.

“Netanyahu is a longtime and proven friend to the global Christian community and his action today — amidst all the other issues on his plate — is further proof,” Rosenberg said.
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Did you watch the video?
Even gave you time stamp where you can hear his comment.
 
D

Dash

Veteran Member
Donghe Surfer said:
Did you watch the video?
Even gave you time stamp where you can hear his comment.
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How much do you know about the man Tucker was interviewing? Munther Isaac is an anti-Semite and terrorist sympathizer.

Tucker Carlson’s ‘pastor from Bethlehem’ is ‘the high priest of antisemitic Christianity’​

Munther Isaac justified Oct. 7 attack and is on the board of an organization calling Judaism a ‘dead letter”​

By
Lahav Harkov
April 11, 2024
Interview choice
GettyImages-1873370287-1200x800.jpg

MARCUS YAM / LOS ANGELES TIMES
Rev. Munther Isaac poses for a portrait next to a Christmas nativity scene with a the symbolic Baby Jesus in a manger of rubble and destruction to reflect the reality of Palestinian children living and being born today, at the Evangelical Lutheran Christmas Church in Bethlehem, West Bank , Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
When Tucker Carlson said he wanted to know how the government of Israel treats Christians, he opted against interviewing Israeli Christians, choosing instead to speak to a Palestinian Christian pastor who founded an anti-Israel organization and justified Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

Munther Isaac, the pastor featured in a 40-minute interview with Carlson that aired on X on Tuesday, gave a sermon on Oct. 8, 2023, in which he said the attack — a day prior — in which 1,200 Israelis were slaughtered by Hamas was a logical outcome.

“What is happening is an embodiment of the injustice that has befallen us as Palestinians from the Nakba until now,” Isaac said in the sermon, using the Arabic word for “catastrophe,” that Palestinians use to mark the creation of Israel in 1948 and displacement of some 750,000 Palestinians. “Frankly, anyone following the events was not surprised by what happened yesterday… One of the scenes that left an impression on my mind yesterday, and there are many scenes, is the scene of the Israeli youth who were celebrating a concert in the open air [the Nova music festival] just outside the borders of Gaza, and how they escaped. What a great contradiction, between the besieged poor on the one hand, and the wealthy people celebrating as if there was nothing behind the wall. Gaza exposes the hypocrisy of the world.”

On Christmas Eve last year, Isaac, the pastor of the Evangelical Lutheran Christmas Church in Bethlehem, in the West Bank, delivered a sermon in which he said that “if Jesus were to be born today, he would be born under the rubble in Gaza.” Jesus, who was Jewish and not Palestinian, a term that was only officially used for the region by the Romans a century later, was born in Bethlehem, which is near Jerusalem and not where the war is currently taking place. Bethlehem is currently under Israeli military control, but civilian matters – such as official religious tolerance – in the city are the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority.

Isaac is a board member of Kairos Palestine, an organization launched in 2009 whose founding document makes antisemitic statements, such as engaging in replacement theology to deny the Jewish people’s historic connection to Israel. The Kairos Document calls the Torah a “dead letter…used as a weapon in our present history in order to deprive us of our rights in our own land.” The document also states that “Christian love invites us to resist,” and describes the First Intifada, a campaign of attacks on Israelis as a “peaceful struggle.” The Kairos home page currently describes the war in Gaza as a genocide, and the organization supports boycotts against Israel.

Isaac is also the director of the Bethlehem Bible College’s biannual “Christ at the Checkpoint” annual conferences, meant to promote Palestinian nationalism among Christian leaders, or as they put it “challenge evangelicals to take responsibility to help resolve the conflicts in Israel-Palestine by engaging with the teaching of Jesus.” Its manifesto states that “the occupation is the core issue of the conflict.” While the conference’s manifesto states that it opposes antisemitism and delegitimization of Israel, it also describes current Israeli policy as “discrimination or privileges based on ethnicity” stemming from “worldviews that promote divine national entitlement or exceptionalism.”

Among the antisemitic statements made at the conference over the years, collected by NGO Monitor, an organization that researches the activities and funding of nonprofits relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict, are: “If God wanted the Jews to have the land…I didn’t want that God anymore!” “If you put King David, Jesus and Netanyahu [through a DNA test], you will get nothing, because Netanyahu comes from an East European tribe who converted to Judaism in the Middle Ages.” “Jews who reject Jesus Christ are outside the covenant of grace and are to be regarded as children of Hagar,” as opposed to Abraham and Sarah. The final quote is from Stephen Sizer, a British pastor who has engaged in Holocaust denial and blaming Israel for 9/11.

Rev. Johnnie Moore, president of the Congress of Christian Leaders, said that “those of us who track these things know that Munther Isaac has long been the high priest of antisemitic Christianity; sadly, he spreads his hate from the city of Jesus’ birth.”

“Since Oct. 7,” Moore added, “Isaac seems to have graduated from being an anti-Zionist Lutheran preacher to a terror sympathizer. There’s really just no other way to describe him.”

Jonathan Elkhoury, a Christian Lebanese refugee granted Israeli citizenship, said he was “appalled and ashamed” at Carlson’s choice to invite Isaac onto his show, preferring “rhetoric of lies and misinformation about Israel or its treatment of minorities” rather than “a voice that speaks about Christian life in the Holy Land.”

“Tucker Carlson should have taken his platform more seriously, and not invite political activists, in the disguise of a religious robe, to support the ongoing dehumanization of Israelis and the denial of the right of Israel to exist,” he said.

In his introduction to the interview with Isaac, Carlson said that Christians suffer disproportionately in wars in which the U.S. supplies weapons.

However, the Christian population in the West Bank and Gaza declined significantly in recent decades since coming under Palestinian control, amid pressure from the PA and attempts to Islamize the city, in addition to difficulties relating to Israel’s security control of the area experienced by Palestinians regardless of religion.

Elkhoury said that when Israel had control over Bethlehem, the city had a population that was over 60% Christian. After the 1993 Oslo Accords, which gave the PA control of the city, the number of Christians has since declined to about 12%.

There were 3,000 Christians in Gaza when Israel withdrew from the coastal enclave in 2005, a number that fell to about 1,100 as of last year, he said.

“Hamas prevented Christians [from] celebrat[ing] their holidays freely under its control since taking power, and Christians under the PA have faced many ongoing threats and attacks,” Elkhoury said. “The last one of them was an attack on the Jacob’s Well monastery in Nablus by a Palestinian mob last January.”

Israel’s Christian community, which is about 2% of the country’s population, has been rising steadily for the past few years, and is the only growing Christian population in the Middle East. Arab Christians are also the most educatedpopulation group in Israel, with a higher percentage of university graduates than Jewish or Muslim Israelis.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) said Carlson’s take on Israel’s treatment of Christians is “nonsense,” calling the former Fox News host “a cowardly, know-nothing elitist who is full of shit.”

“Tucker’s MO is simple: defend America’s enemies and attack America’s allies,” Crenshaw wrote on X. “There isn’t an objective bone left in that washed up news host’s body. Mindless contrarianism is his guiding principle…He uses his platform to sow doubt and paranoia and false narratives.”

Tucker Carlson’s ‘pastor from Bethlehem’ is ‘the high priest of antisemitic Christianity’
 
D

Dash

Veteran Member
Donghe Surfer said:
Oh man... you are now quoting Dan Crenshaw. Jeesh....
and smearing anyone who says anything bad about Israel as anti-semitic. Israel is not a clean, innocent lamb. It does bad things.
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I posted an article that quotes Dan Crenshaw. I’m not quoting him. Big difference. Nice try though.

Where did I smear “anyone who says anything bad about Israel as an anti-Semite“? I posted an article that details the anti-Semitic history of one man. How does that equate to me smearing anyone else? Not sure why you are making this a personal attack on me.

I posted the article to show that Munther Isaac has an agenda. I also posted an article and links earlier that show that it is not in fact illegal to evangelize in Israel. Jews might not welcome it but it is not illegal. Did you read that article or the link I provided?

Have you been to Israel? I have and I visited a quite a few churches while I was there.

There are things you can criticize Israel for. In my opinion this isn’t it.
 
J

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
J

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Dash said:
This isn’t true. Freedom of religion is guaranteed in Israel.

From embassies.gov.il

The Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel (1948) guarantees freedom of religion for all. Each religious community is free, by law and in practice, to exercise its faith, to observe its holidays and weekly day of rest, and to administer its internal affairs. Each has its own religious council and courts, recognized by law and with jurisdiction over all religious affairs and matters of personal status such as marriage and divorce. Each has its own unique places of worship, with traditional rituals and special architectural features developed over the centuries.

https://embassies.gov.il/holysee/AboutIsrael/Pages/Religious-Freedom-.aspx#

Below is an AP article from last year about Netanyahu blocking a bill against Christian proselytizing.

Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing

Israeli leader halts bill against Christian proselytizing​


JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said he would prevent the passage of a proposal by a powerful ally in his governing coalition to punish Christian proselytizing with jail time.

The proposal had raised an uproar with evangelical Christians — one of Israel’s strongest and most influential supporters in the United States.

The bill was introduced in January by a pair of ultra-Orthodox Jewish lawmakers, including Moshe Gafni, who heads the parliament’s Finance Committee. It says soliciting someone to convert their faith should be punishable by one year in prison and solicitation to convert a minor would be punishable with a two-year sentence.

“Recently, the attempts of missionary groups, mainly Christians, to solicit conversion of religion have increased,” it said.

The bill was never advanced, but it drew widespread attention in the American evangelical world this week after All Israel News, an evangelical news site, reported on it.

On Wednesday, Netanyahu announced on Twitter: “We will not advance any law against the Christian community.”

Gafni said he had introduced the bill as a procedural matter, as he has done in the past, and there were no plans to advance it.

READ MORE
Evangelical Christians, particularly in the United States, are among the strongest backers of Israel, viewing it as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy, with some seeing it as the harbinger of a second coming of Jesus Christ and the end of days.

Israel has long welcomed evangelicals’ political and financial support, and it has largely shrugged off concerns about any hidden religious agenda. But most Jews view any effort to convert them to Christianity as deeply offensive, a legacy of centuries of persecution and forced conversion at the hands of Christian rulers. In part, because of those sensitivities, evangelical Christians rarely target Jews.

Joel Rosenberg, editor in chief of All Israel News, welcomed Netanyahu’s announcement, which comes at a time of domestic turmoil in Israel over his plan to overhaul the country’s legal system and rising tensions with the Biden administration over West Bank settlement activities.

“Netanyahu is a longtime and proven friend to the global Christian community and his action today — amidst all the other issues on his plate — is further proof,” Rosenberg said.
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Yeah. And the USA has Equal Protection Under the Law.
How's that little bit of legalize working out for you?
J6 ringing any bells?

"Laws" don't necessarily mean squat.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Dash said:
Sorry for taking the thread off topic. I shouldn’t have replied to his post here. But “children”? Really? I‘m starting to remember why I don‘t really participate here.
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Dash, when "stuff" gets as dynamic and kinetic as it is now we need all the help we can get in finding and posting relevant information. Please stay engaged here on the board and stay focused on what's important. The chaff is always with us.
 
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