DISASTER EMP expert says no military in 30-60 days after major EMP attack

Melodi

Disaster Cat
While I am not that concerned about an EMP attack on its own (as Dennis points out, that is a nuclear attack), the Sun is a whole different issue. We KNOW a Carrington Event can happen and did happen in the 1850s. But because that sort of event only directly affects modern technology (back then, it was the telegraph), we have no idea how frequent or rare these events are.

Scientists know a smaller version took out a large part of the Canadian Eastern Grid a few years back, but it wasn't a full-on Carrington-style destroyer.

There is a sunspot big enough to do something like that right now, but it would have to produce a flare at the right time and directly in the right place to cause anything but some spectacular aruras. If it could go away, we might even see some in Ireland.

In a Carrington-style event, the military personnel in the line of fire would be affected, but if their equipment is hardened, they may be some of the only functional services.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
EMP is highly unlikely without nuclear exchange.

What is far more likely is cyberwarfare, which shares the same threat patterns as an EMP.

The OPLAN for both scenarios are periodically revised, comms would be hampered, but there are non-digital redundancies like HFGCS, NETCOM, etc... for comms. Most of our legacy hardware is hardened or not connected to digital infrastructure.

The issue is going to be the DoD is admin and records, it's all digital at this point.
It isnt the weapon systems that are the issue but all the support systems. The military relies on commercial rail and air traffic to move things. Relies on the commercial grid to power its bases and manufacturing. Relies on commercial logistics for food and parts. Lose the commercial side and the military cant function long term.
 

Grumphau

Veteran Member
EMP is highly unlikely without nuclear exchange.

What is far more likely is cyberwarfare, which shares the same threat patterns as an EMP.

The OPLAN for both scenarios are periodically revised, comms would be hampered, but there are non-digital redundancies like HFGCS, NETCOM, etc... for comms. Most of our legacy hardware is hardened or not connected to digital infrastructure.

The issue is going to be the DoD is admin and records, it's all digital at this point.
Yes that makes sense. And I think the DoD is probably less likely to respond effectively to a cyber attack.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Thought we were having an EMP attack this morning. At the farm & fleet, and two SUV's car alarms went off. It's not that big of a parking lot, not that big of a store. And seriously, here? You hardly ever hear one of the obnoxious things. :confused:

Then I remembered - opening of fishing season on Saturday. The early bird idjots from the Twin Cities are migrating north for the weekend and probably stopped on their way through town for fishing tackle. Never mind. :rolleyes:
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
You mean you think another Carrington event is not in the cards? That was 1859. For all we know they come on average every 100+ years. How would we know? Until electricity started to be used, there was no impact from large sunspots.......
But NOW? Hoo boy
Strange you should mention that :siren:
This just happened, full halo CME, will hit us tomorrow, and then a few more follow up cme's over the next few days. Best look now because these disappear off spaceweather every few days. https://spaceweather.com/images2024/09may24/so_many_cmes.gif
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
If we have a widespread EMP attack on the US then it really does not matter how effective it is in destroying the grid.

If it happens, life as we know it is over. The followup will make the Patriot Act and FISA Court look like kindergarten.
Go listen to the guy on the video I posted, jump in on the 18 minute mark if you don't want to listen from the beginning. It's all worth while. He is not an EMP expert. He is a member of the Homeland Security commission on preparedness. He was there when they wargamed, in a scif, the effects of an EMP attack that does take down the grid, in a worst case scenario. There won't be a government of any type. Military bases will collapse very quickly and he gives many reasons why. There is NO long term recovery plan, period. Hence no patriot act, no central control. Basically Mad Max and his view it to survive the first year by staying quiet while the other 90% die off.

He has been at the planning and wargaming sessions at the top levels; I haven't. Neither have anyone else on this forum I would bet. It's a short listen and he looks at surviving the first year in a way I hadn't thought of in some respects. Again, this is worst case.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
EMP is highly unlikely without nuclear exchange.

What is far more likely is cyberwarfare, which shares the same threat patterns as an EMP.

The OPLAN for both scenarios are periodically revised, comms would be hampered, but there are non-digital redundancies like HFGCS, NETCOM, etc... for comms. Most of our legacy hardware is hardened or not connected to digital infrastructure.

The issue is going to be the DoD is admin and records, it's all digital at this point.
Non digital? I don't think so. Digital or analog communications are both electronic. I spent my life in electronics, both analog at the beginning and then both but mostly digital. It is all electronic. It all needs a reliable power system. In a widespread emp/nuclear attack all three will go away in a meaningful way. Ok, so deep under the Pentagon systems are up and running for 3 months but 90% of the rest of the military is not. Trucking is gone. Gasoline is gone. Electronics and electricity is out. Bases will fall apart very quickly. The guy on the vid brings up some good points.

Just imagine the effects of no more flush toilets. Not only do they no longer flush; methane starts backing up and permeating bathrooms and living quarters. No water. Period.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
It isnt the weapon systems that are the issue but all the support systems. The military relies on commercial rail and air traffic to move things. Relies on the commercial grid to power its bases and manufacturing. Relies on commercial logistics for food and parts. Lose the commercial side and the military cant function long term.

For domestic garrison operations. Yes.

The general outline of the OPLAN for something like an EMP on US soil is for units located in the CONUS (Continental United States) is to assume combat posture as they would in a LSCO, (Large Scale Combat Operation...because use of scalar weaponry would be the initiation of a LSCO) while utilizing existing supplimental sustainment stocks until domestic production capabilities are brought back online.

This is done regularly by Civil Affairs & Engineering Battalions using the SWEAT (Sewer, Water, Electricity, Academics & Trash) method or what is now called "Infastructure Reconnaissance" in overseas environments.

Airlift capabilities for domestic operations is a moot, rail and road are the big concern, but the majority of Class 3 rail prime movers a built with mechanical redundancies in their control and operation systems.

Switches are still required to have a local mechanical switch to allow a conductor to throw it.

Adminitratively STRACTNET and STRAHNET would implement, which moves about 40% of road and rail directly under military control and gives military/gov traffic priority on rail line and roadways.

Sustained EMP would be unlikely, because as old as our ABM and ICBM systems are, they're still effective.

Only the Russians or Chinese would have the ICBM platforms and stockpiles to even dream of sustained EMP strikes, even then we have forward deployed systems like Arleigh-Burke's carrying the SM-3 which are capable of limited-ABM.

EMP would also mean nuclear weapons are on the table, and unless it's a decapitation strike where they hit all our silos, forward deployed nukes in Europe, and take out all our Ohio's...than the EMP will be of limited effect and would certainly illicit a response, even if limited.

EMP as a risk is just low on the list and even then isn't an all encompassing risk.
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
Go listen to the guy on the video I posted, jump in on the 18 minute mark if you don't want to listen from the beginning. It's all worth while. He is not an EMP expert. He is a member of the Homeland Security commission on preparedness. He was there when they wargamed, in a scif, the effects of an EMP attack that does take down the grid, in a worst case scenario. There won't be a government of any type. Military bases will collapse very quickly and he gives many reasons why. There is NO long term recovery plan, period. Hence no patriot act, no central control. Basically Mad Max and his view it to survive the first year by staying quiet while the other 90% die off.

He has been at the planning and wargaming sessions at the top levels; I haven't. Neither have anyone else on this forum I would bet. It's a short listen and he looks at surviving the first year in a way I hadn't thought of in some respects. Again, this is worst case.
I understand- I’m just saying it doesn’t even have to be worst case for lives to change forever
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
As far as the EMP part, nobody is going to toss sunshine and get THAT desired result. There may be smaller (localized) attacks on specific valuable targets with HPM-EMP based devices (like the cruise missiles and small plane pods that now can do HPM EW attacks), but nothing nuclear from a human source is going to be a real threat.

I would suggest that a CME event could cause some damage, but two things with that will be our "saving grace" as long we keep our eyes open just before the event. A solar outburst of any kind will be detected a day or two before it happens, and give us at least a few hours to "prepare". All of the power companies that I have talked to DO have a plan for islanding (disconnecting into smaller segments) in the event of a CME or other event that may cause harsh enough GIC (Ground Induced Currents) and other system imbalances. Just like they can remotely kill power to anyone's house with the smart meters that they have installed, they can also do similar "realignments" at all of the substations, including the big ones that interlink the big parts of the whole grid. They have even installed both propane generators (and craploads of battery backup) and dedicated fiber at most of these substations so that they can be isolated, keep "alive" as far as "in communication" and once the threat is over, they can be remotely put back online as warranted. If they shed loads, and at the same time, scale back generation, they can island fairly quickly leaving just the emergency loads "online" for as long as possible (or warranted).

Of course, this also allows them to control exactly where the power goes at other times as well...
I worked for PG&E in Cali when parts of SF and the Bart system went down for parts of 3 days. It was one tiny inconsequential 17K Volt breaker on a pole at the Tesla Substation east of Oakland. It popped and took down parts of SF and BART, for days. Yes it was a long time ago, but with all the financial problems and REGULARTORY problems they had/have in commieforonia, I seriously doubt they are prepared for anything like an EMP or CME 'attack'. I had one of the substation people walk out and point the breaker out to me and we laughed.

To emphasize: one little ole' 17KVolt breaker popped EAST of Oakland and Bart went down for days. Imagine 3000 little ole' breakers all across the USA not only popping but burning out. Or, what the heck, 100,000 breakers and transformer and untold millions of wires burning up or insulation melting/burning off and shorting.

I think you are far too sanguine, especially concerning how interconnected everything is now. Last company I worked for when Covid first broke was transferring its internal server farm out to Amazon. This company did the database storage and the work for the top 17 major flood insurance companies in the USA. You got flood insurance, the odds are we did ALL the back end work and most of the front end processing during major flood and storm damage as far as insurance goes. Not a small local company you may say. Yeah, there comes a time when I see that becoming a big mistake. In effect they were not only transferring their hardware capability, they are also destroying the local inhouse expertise.

As for the Carrington Event it electrified the tiny amount of telegraph wires the world had then and many of them caught fire. We now live in a world with a trillion times more wires stretched out around the world. Not trying to put you on the spot but have you ever been in a Central Office in a large/huge city like Vancouver (Vancouver BC had several CO's handling the city and environs) with it's millions and millions of telco wires? The world may have gone cell phone but those wires are all still there. The basic telecommunications are still handled there (the internet, hubs, etc).

Major Ed Dame's "Shot Across the Bow" took place in fall 2004. Magnitudes larger than the Carrington Event. We missed getting hit by that by two days. Two days.

As for talking to people in Power Companies, I can state with certitude that 99.9999% of people at a higher level than your managers managers manager haven't got a real clue about the technology and people they are involved in. The vast majority ARE yes men and women and 99.9999% won't say boo to higher management; I've seen it over and over again at several companies including Utilities and in Canada and the USA. They get told once to sit down and shut up, they sit down and shut up including every time they knew there was a problem.

Yes. YOU might survive and large scale EMP/NUKE attack. YOU are prepared for it and very knowledgeable. The majority won't. But as for the N. American telecommunications AND electric power systems being prepared for anything larger than a local issue let alone a real Statewide catastrophe I think is a joke. Just a major collapse of the financial system as we know it will cause more issues than most can even imagine.
 
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Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Do we know what response is in US military doctrine for an EMP? If someone is hitting North America repeatedly I would expect they would be taking damage on their side too. They might not have the ability to do more than one attack.
From what I've read about the Russian Doomsday systems (and I don't know for sure, I doubt anyone here really does) they are set up to keep firing even after all central control has been lost (assumed destroyed). If I was wargaming it you'd bet I'd have a system of sustained nuclear strikes and EMP attacks over weeks and months. Russia has many thousands of missiles and many are MIRVS. Is it possible a single MIRV could hit several areas of the USA with EMPS? I would think it is possible and probable.

Most strikes would be in the first hours and days. After that, who knows, 1 or 2 low level EMPS per month for a year; that is how I'd game it out. What the hell, I'd be dead and buried under piles of rubble in Moscow, at that point, what would I care?
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Back in 1859 our magnetic shield protecting the earth from CMEs was at 100%. Now it is down about 40% from the last report. It will not take a CME or X Class flare of the type in 1859 to destroy the grid worldwide. Do your own research and you will see why there is such a big concern about the CMEs headed toward earth.
and it is right around that magic 40% magnetic field strength where some have said the earth's poles could suddenly flip, it doesn't have to go to 0. That is the North Pole has shifted, MASSIVELY, since 1998, on it's way to Siberia (left Canadian space years ago and about 300 years quicker than the experts said it would back in 1998), as well as the magnetic planetary field dropping in power.

Just another thing to worry about :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

Reasonable Rascal

Veteran Member
I worked for PG&E in Cali when parts of SF and the Bart system went down for parts of 3 days.

Not something I would want to admit to on my resume.

I think you are far too sanguine, especially concerning how interconnected everything is now.

Pretty sure you don't know who Loop is, nor his qualifications. But there I go repeating myself.

RR
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
Are we going to go through all this yet AGAIN??


There will be no EMP attack.

An EMP ATTACK wouldn’t harm the military anyway; their electronics have been hardened against if for over 20 years

An EMP attack is in fact a NUCLEAR WEAPON attack. Thus, we would be in WW3.

EMP is a Doomer’s favorite porn.


This has been settled over and over and over again.

So military equipment is protected from EMP, but not civilian equipment, cars, trucks, semis, communications, electric grid, power plants, etc.

After a few days with no help coming, the general public will go crazy and it will be hell on earth.

Texican....
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Not something I would want to admit to on my resume.



Pretty sure you don't know who Loop is, nor his qualifications. But there I go repeating myself.

RR
Lol. Why not? Largest electric utility on the West Coast, HUGE I.T. infrastructure. At the time 22,000 employees, 18,000 computers, 300 Banyon Servers (number went down quite a bit when we cut over to Windows NT during Y2K).

I'd been in electronics for close to 20 years, several countries, many many companies and different kinds of tech but never really paid much attention to that 120V AC coming out of the wall. Boy PGE was an experience to see what it took to get that to houses and buildings. And deadly, 2 techs that my group knew got fried. One from rotted plywood giving way; the second because he broke all the safety rules and tried to get his friend out.

I also learned that even back in the 90's the .gov of Cali was hamstringing the company with rules, laws, regulations. PGE wasn't allowed to do a great many things because commieland was making up rules and regs with NO understanding of the reality of the infrastructure and WHERE they can spend what, WHAT technical infrastructure changes they are ALLOWED to make. That company is controlled by the whims of DEI morons in Sacramento. That was in the 90's, I shudder to thing about today.

I saw Erin Brockovitch. I've seen the news stories of how PGE caused the wildfires up north. Paradise was DEWS, it wasn't downed power lines.

Yes the corporate part of PG&E is corrupt, vile, and venal. Just like Proctor and Gamble, Just like Nabisco, just like BOA. Just like just about every thing above the local level in the USA.

Technically, damn! that was an experience. I took on a contracting job with them as a Software Analyst, after half a year was asked to become full time; then was asked to become the Network Admin for a good sized chunk of Central Cali leading up to the cut over from Banyon Vines to MS NT and Windows 95 in the lead up to the Y2K cutover.

Professionally, in I.T. it was quite an experience and adventure. The vast majority of employees were good people, doing their best to keep that 120Volts going out to keep your lights on. Trust me, it wasn't easy. It was mind blowing how HUGE that effort is.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
So military equipment is protected from EMP, but not civilian equipment, cars, trucks, semis, communications, electric grid, power plants, etc.

After a few days with no help coming, the general public will go crazy and it will be hell on earth.

Texican....
Listen to the guy on the vid, lol. Yes, an EMP attack would be nuclear war. And? There will never be a nuclear war? He is just making the point about what some events will take place IF a worst case scenario takes place.

Logistics, logistics, logistics. The US military will not be functioning, not in a meaningful way. So bloody what how hardened PART of the military is. They don't run their own power lines. They don't pull their own oil out of the ground and refine it.. They don't run their own fiber cables from one military site to another. They use to a large degree the same network hubs we do. Yes their own equipment, I get that. But to all intents and purposes if we lose the internet, they will lose most of it.

Most things you read about the power grid system and catastrophic recovery is BS, pure and simple. No electricity, or even very sketchy electric grid system and our modern life gets very tough, or just gone.

The guy is involved in high level discussions of catastrophic failure of the grid and what comes after. If you don't want to listen to him don't. The wargaming of the grid going down is only part of his discussion, the rest are his views of the next year and what his plans are.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
Non digital? I don't think so. Digital or analog communications are both electronic. I spent my life in electronics, both analog at the beginning and then both but mostly digital. It is all electronic. It all needs a reliable power system.
Yes, that's why analog systems like HFGCS, NETCOM, MEECN, ect.. are maintained globally and housed at multiple hardened sites with redundant support infrastructure.

In a widespread emp/nuclear attack all three will go away in a meaningful way.
I'm not speaking to commercial or public systems or operations.

Ok, so deep under the Pentagon systems are up and running for 3 months
Right, because DoD built a singular, hardened command and control node, but nothing for it to command or control...


but 90% of the rest of the military is not.
The military's primary function is to operate within non-permissive, austere environments which includes post-NUDET enviorments. Hence why every battalion has a special troops section with an CBRN platoon.

Great knowledge and insight can be gain into this subject matter by reading a copy of the first four levels of STP 21-24-SMCT, then I recommend AFDP 32-3 be read and then some of the thousands of white papers written on the myriad of post-nuclear operations.

Trucking is gone. Gasoline is gone. Electronics and electricity is out.
I'm not speaking to commercial or public systems and operations.

Bases will fall apart very quickly.
A woeful misunderstanding of how garrisons operate and function.

The institutions that wage war on our behalfcare more than capable in running their own facilities without John Q. Public having tap water and flushing toilets, let alone in a post-NUDET environment.

The guy on the vid brings up some good points.
I'm sure he does...

Just imagine the effects of no more flush toilets.
Yes, I've lived through extended periods without power and amenities.

Not only do they no longer flush; methane starts backing up and permeating bathrooms and living quarters.
Which is why a water barrier must be maintained in bowl.

No water. Period
Not from the tap.

A number of folks here have professional backgrounds and real world experience in Continuity of Operations, Disaster Response, Emergency Communitcations, CBRN Response, etc...

I appreciate your opinions on this subject.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Yes, an EMP attack would be nuclear war. And? There will never be a nuclear war?
See, this is why EEEE EMMMM PEEEE proponents receive derision on TB. They NEVER address the larger issue of what nuclear war would mean. They gloss right over the fact that in all likelihood there would be very little left AT ALL after 24 hours. The EMP’ers think that the nuke war will “come and go”, and everyone will be unscathed afterward, but society won’t “run.” Dude, you ever see the movie “The Postman”? If not, I suggest you rent it ASAP.

I look at EMP’ers as being out of touch with reality, while enjoying their flavor of Doomer Porn. Loup knows WTF he’s talking about. We’ve beat this horse to death over TWENTY YEARS, but I wouldn’t expect you’d know that. There is a vast storehouse of information on this forum. Take some time and study some of it.

CME maybe, EMP no.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
Logistics, logistics, logistics. The US military will not be functioning, not in a meaningful way. So bloody what how hardened PART of the military is. They don't run their own power lines. They don't pull their own oil out of the ground and refine it.. They don't run their own fiber cables from one military site to another. They use to a large degree the same network hubs we do. Yes their own equipment, I get that. But to all intents and purposes if we lose the internet, they will lose most of it.

The largest logistic entity in the world is the US military.

Yes, state-side garrisons utilize a portion of commerical/public hubs and the moment those assets cease to function/exist it will assume a combat posture and operation as such.

All the infastructure you speak of, the military must bring with it when it undertakes combat operations...which is what an EMP would be.

By it's very nature the military is designed to operation in these enviorments and much of the support systems they rely on are Cold War designs built for the exact scenario we discussing, operating in a post-NUDET environment.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
@Johnny Twoguns , @LoupGarou is our resident expert in all things electronic. I suggest you read his other treatises on the subject, which go BEYOND eye-bleeding detail.
Thanks. I have been aware of the Wolf Lover for well over a decade ( he can really get irate when it comes to harming wolfs :lol:;)) and I've read some of his stuff, mostly over a decade ago. However, and this is only my opinion, I am not debating anyone or their views on the matter, but you will only really know during and after the sh_t hits the fan.

I've been in high tech for decades. I've run a few departments for some companies, including a global telecom company. I've been 'responsible' for some Disaster Recovery plans for one of the Big 5 Banks largest Customer Service sites. Disaster recovery is mostly a joke every where I've worked in large companies. It's too big, it's too complicated, it is too dependent on thousands of factors. It's not that I claim to know everything, but I know just how mucked up much of the tech world is :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:. I'm very impressed with our high tech world but I don't fall for a lot of the bull management and marketing puts out. I've seen a lot of sh_t and shinola put out by some very very big corporations on some big projects

I assume the US Mil is about the same.

Only if a super CME or nuke war happens in a large way, will we know for sure.

Anyway, it seems people are having some fun on this thread. And I'll bet not one in a hundred has contemplated a sustained EMP attack stretched out over days, weeks, then maybe even months. I'll bet someone in the Kremlin have ;)
 
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Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
See, this is why EEEE EMMMM PEEEE proponents receive derision on TB. They NEVER address the larger issue of what nuclear war would mean. They gloss right over the fact that in all likelihood there would be very little left AT ALL after 24 hours. The EMP’ers think that the nuke war will “come and go”, and everyone will be unscathed afterward, but society won’t “run.” Dude, you ever see the movie “The Postman”? If not, I suggest you rent it ASAP.

I look at EMP’ers as being out of touch with reality, while enjoying their flavor of Doomer Porn. Loup knows WTF he’s talking about. We’ve beat this horse to death over TWENTY YEARS, but I wouldn’t expect you’d know that. There is a vast storehouse of information on this forum. Take some time and study some of it.

CME maybe, EMP no.
Oh I totally agree with everything you say. Up until this clown show really took over the USA and is dumb enough to keep poking the Bear I haven't stressed nuc war nor EMPs, for well over a decade, actually probably the last time I looked at a basement and seriously thought about nukes going off would have been around 2002 or so. I still think about what to do, where to go locally, but it is more out of habit than stressing over it.

The whole EMP thing is to my thinking, is about China wanting our land. They definitely don't want it radiated to oblivion. To my mind then I'll bet a lot of their and Russia's R&D has gone into developing EMPS and Neutron type bomb technology. They have already bought out most of our politicians and corporate leaders but I don't think they are depending on that.

I think a large part, if not all of the development of the JAB was to decimate the US population so it will be easier to conquer. Deagle and all that. There are a LOT of connections between the DOD, Ft Detrick, Wuhan, Fauci, and the DS.

Anyway to set the record straight, I have been a long time doomer :lol::lol::lol:. Even now with all the poking at the Bear I think the probability of all out Nuke war being slim; that includes EMPs. My doom focus is financial collapse combined with the DS making their play to fully take over the USA via invasion, mass chaos, and violence not seen since the Civil War, but along the lines of the fighting in the Border States. I've seen Postman several times. Let me recommend Ride With the Devil about the Border Wars. That is what I see coming for sure at this stage.

But keeping poking the Bear idiots; keep poking.
 

1911user

Veteran Member
There is an advisory council but the speaker is not on it.


From the research I did no the guy quickly, he sells EMP for a living. His Task Force and personal website are all about selling his books on EMP survival as well as a fiction series. The only govt service I can find is his military service.
He was best buddies with the late Dr. Peter Pry of EMPact America fame. Do a search for Peter Pry, he has been discussed at length on this board in the past. That is his so-called credentials.

William Forstchen, author of One Second After, was also part of this group.

@mecoastie, this is worth reading if you haven't seen it.
 
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Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Oh I totally agree with everything you say. Up until this clown show really took over the USA and is dumb enough to keep poking the Bear I haven't stressed nuc war nor EMPs, for well over a decade, actually probably the last time I looked at a basement and seriously thought about nukes going off would have been around 2002 or so. I still think about what to do, where to go locally, but it is more out of habit than stressing over it.

The whole EMP thing is to my thinking, is about China wanting our land. They definitely don't want it radiated to oblivion. To my mind then I'll bet a lot of their and Russia's R&D has gone into developing EMPS and Neutron type bomb technology. They have already bought out most of our politicians and corporate leaders but I don't think they are depending on that.

Anyway to set the record straight, I have been a long time doomer :lol::lol::lol:. Even now with all the poking at the Bear I think the probability of all out Nuke war being slim; that includes EMPs. My doom focus is financial collapse combined with the DS making their play to fully take over the USA via invasion, mass chaos, and violence not seen since the Civil War, but along the lines of the fighting in the Border States. I've seen Postman several times. Let me recommend Ride With the Devil about the Border Wars. That is what I see coming for sure at this stage.

But keeping poking the Bear idiots; keep poking.
The largest logistic entity in the world is the US military.

Yes, state-side garrisons utilize a portion of commerical/public hubs and the moment those assets cease to function/exist it will assume a combat posture and operation as such.

All the infastructure you speak of, the military must bring with it when it undertakes combat operations...which is what an EMP would be.

By it's very nature the military is designed to operation in these enviorments and much of the support systems they rely on are Cold War designs built for the exact scenario we discussing, operating in a post-NUDET environment.
The US military USES the largest logistic chains in human history. It is the US public (more of less, mostly US) that keeps the military supplied with the material. That is part of the point he is making. The US military doesn't produce anything, more or less. It USES what others produce.

Just to throw some sand into the gears, there are now a couple of countries that are no longer accepting US dollar nor Treasury Notes for any more trade. I think it is UAE is one of them. UAE, think about that. Saudi Arabia is no longer restricting sales of oil to US dollar trades. Saudi Arabia now has a military pact with Russia, signed the week or so after biden's debacle in the Afghan retreat. much more damaging to US prestige than the 1842 Kabul retreat of the British.

Saudi Arabia, the bedrock of the US Treasury notes being the Reserve Currency. Think about that.

Many countries are talking about it, openly, at symposiums and what not. Many countries are gravitating to BRIICS. I think it is up to 139 countries expressing interest, with up to 11 more joining the original members plus Iran.

What happens when, and it is now when, not if, countries around the world say, yes, your Navy can fuel up here, but we don't take US dollars. We want gold, rubles, or yuan.

That is the world that is now forming around us. One has to start thinking outside the box we have been living in all our lives.
 
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Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
He was best buddies with the late Dr. Peter Pry of EMPact America fame. Do a search for Peter Pry, he has been discussed at length on this board in the past. That is his so-called credentials.

William Forstchen, author of One Second After, was also part of this group.
The interviewer is the one who said he was in the scif. You'll have to take it up with him. I generally take people at their word until I have reason not to. His points are still valid.
 

Doc1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
So military equipment is protected from EMP, but not civilian equipment, cars, trucks, semis, communications, electric grid, power plants, etc.

After a few days with no help coming, the general public will go crazy and it will be hell on earth.

Texican....

Most of the high tech stuff on this thread is over my head, but I have studied various militaries for decades. I have to assume that the Russians, Chinese and any other potential US enemies study the public's reaction to catastrophes very carefully and would seek to maximize those effects to military advantage.

The military would - and does - consider how (if at all) to assist civilians with food and medical care and how to deal with problematic civilians who might attempt to steal rations or block roads. In every known war civilians are always a - usually problematic - component.

You said, "the general public will go crazy and it will be hell on earth." That is certainly true and the only smart play is to avoid your fellow civilians to as great a degree as is possible.

Best
Doc
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Most of the high tech stuff on this thread is over my head, but I have studied various militaries for decades. I have to assume that the Russians, Chinese and any other potential US enemies study the public's reaction to catastrophes very carefully and would seek to maximize those effects to military advantage.

The military would - and does - consider how (if at all) to assist civilians with food and medical care and how to deal with problematic civilians who might attempt to steal rations or block roads. In every known war civilians are always a - usually problematic - component.

You said, "the general public will go crazy and it will be hell on earth." That is certainly true and the only smart play is to avoid your fellow civilians to as great a degree as is possible.

Best
Doc
The guy on the podcast makes strong point of that; a LOT of people are going to lose their minds, including people you know and probably in your group or their friends/relatives. The interview is only using a large EMP event as a foundation for his POVs on different subjects. People going crazy is one of them.

I recall an episode a long time ago on Vancouver Island. Older brother and I were illegal wetbacks trying to build a log cabin in the boonies to hide out in for the winter. We had the rough walls up to the point where we were debating a second floor ( :lol: :lol: :lol: ). Brother was trying to bang together a stove and pipe out of an old barrel we had found and some piping (our tool repertoire was an axe or two, and small saw, and our side knives).

He then pulled out a smoke and realized we were down to about 3 cigarettes left between us. He freaked out. Started throwing the barrel and pipe around, threw the axe, was literally going nutso, and finally said "I can't do this. I can't do without ciggys", so we went into town and our adventures as volunteers (illegal wetbacks at the time :lol::lol::lol:) at the local Crisis Center in an old haunted Church began.

He had as tough a life growing up as I did. He had recently done a tour in Vietnam. He went a bit crazy because he was down to his last few cigarettes. I've seen people freak out before and after, but that one just came to mind.

You simply have no idea how when and why someone will 'lose it', even if just for a few minutes, and how it affects their thinking and actions.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
And I'll bet not one in a hundred has contemplated a sustained EMP attack stretched out over days, weeks, then maybe even months. I'll bet someone in the Kremlin have ;)
Just because it's an idea, doesn't mean it's a good one.

Sustained EMP strikes would require that we be entirely neutered, with all of our C4ISR capabilities and our ability to respond or retaliate completely knocked out and destroyed in an initial decapitation strike, which would mean eliminating our Ballistic Missile Early Warning Systems, Anti-Ballistic Missiles Systems, Satellite Arrays, etc... as well as launching a combined counterforce and countervalue strike to remove our ability to regain an economic or military foothold which would require an exhaustive amount of their ICBM stocks and entire depletion of their SLBM stocks.

Even then, it would require each silo feild to be destroyed individually.

The reasoning behind why no one entertains the idea, is for it to be carried out would require a gargantuan amount of pre-planning effort that isn't strategically, numerically, or logically feasible, and would be nearly impossible to carry out secretively.

So unless the Russian can amass a fighting three times larger than their Soviet-era military while building the nessesary air and sea platforms to ferry said force to the US to siege us or just start a nuclear exchange to wipe US (and them out), for the expressed purpose of sustained EMP strikes against us, it's is just a pipedream within a Catch-22.
 

Weps

Veteran Member
The US military USES the largest logistic chains in human history. It is the US public (more of less, mostly US) that keeps the military supplied with the material. That is part of the point he is making. The US military doesn't produce anything, more or less. It USES what others produce.
Which is why the US military has sustainment stockpiles.

You really think they're unaware what a strike on us would result in?

Also, if buddy was in a SCIF...he's breaking a variety of laws.
 

fi103r

Veteran Member
I’m glad we’ve moved to an electrically woke military. I feel safer.
yup that whole wokturd thing
and the ‘old Army’ of my Dad’s service time
not there and what is there is not feeling any desire to do much more than pour more gasoline (err napalm, I stand corrected) on the self immolation of woketurds
 

Reasonable Rascal

Veteran Member
Anyway, it seems people are having some fun on this thread. And I'll bet not one in a hundred has contemplated a sustained EMP attack stretched out over days, weeks, then maybe even months. I'll bet someone in the Kremlin have ;)

"Sustained" EMP attack? Sustained how? Do you honestly think we or any country capable of mounting a response - whichever side of the Red curtain they are on - would simply say 'Oh golley gee gosh darn, they EMP'ed us. I hope they don't do it again.' And after the 2nd or 3rd wave? 'Please make it stop.'

You exhibit a serious lack of understanding of the forces and munitions involved. Some of us get our information from somewhere besides a fictional novel or three.

And yes, considering all the bad press PG&E brings to mind, yeah, not exactly a resume-enhancing entry. More than just the tree trimming crews screwed up over the years.

RR
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Yes, that's why analog systems like HFGCS, NETCOM, MEECN, ect.. are maintained globally and housed at multiple hardened sites with redundant support infrastructure.
You mean they operate on analog vacuum tubes? It's been over 40 years since I worked on any of those beasts. Anything since (that WAS analog) was analog equipment like measuring water flow in a canal or temperature increase and decrease in hot houses. They all then had to convert the analog information into digital form like Scada to be handled, process, stored to be used or analyzed. So when you say analog are you talking about the end point radio waves? I don't know, I'm just asking. My supposition is you are talking about end point communications, not the equipment that those signals then feed into, which I am guessing would be digital. There are a lot of systems that convert digital to analog, and analog to digital; I've worked with a fair bit of it in telecommunications. But in todays world it all falls into the digital world to be processed and handled.
I'm not speaking to commercial or public systems or operations.
My point is all about public systems. When and if public systems go down and stay down, so will the military systems, it is all then up to a matter of time, and how much of it. Except those living in well stocked DUMBS. Good luck to that.
Right, because DoD built a singular, hardened command and control node, but nothing for it to command or control...



The military's primary function is to operate within non-permissive, austere environments which includes post-NUDET enviorments. Hence why every battalion has a special troops section with an CBRN platoon.

Great knowledge and insight can be gain into this subject matter by reading a copy of the first four levels of STP 21-24-SMCT, then I recommend AFDP 32-3 be read and then some of the thousands of white papers written on the myriad of post-nuclear operations.


I'm not speaking to commercial or public systems and operations.


A woeful misunderstanding of how garrisons operate and function.
Who brings the food to the bases? Who brings the fuel? Who handles the close by cell phone towers that the soldiers, mil use? Again, I understand the US Mil is set up to fight a very limited nuclear war or wars against very small woefully non Peer to Peer adversaries. But if all else collapses around them, the US military will run out of steam fairly quickly.
The institutions that wage war on our behalfcare more than capable in running their own facilities without John Q. Public having tap water and flushing toilets, let alone in a post-NUDET environment.
That sounds very comforting but I don't believe it. They have stocks of water, parts for everything, mre's stored, on base, for a year for the troops let alone the people around them? They all have their own power generating facilities? Fuel for a year stored on base? Not buying it. I've worked in companies with giant chinese gennies backed up with large battery banks that kick in within a maybe 3 seconds of a local power company drop out. Yeah it's great. Certainly wouldn't last long if nobody brought the fuel truck for let's say two weeks? One week? Running full time?
I'm sure he does...


Yes, I've lived through extended periods without power and amenities.
I and brother spent an entire winter in a small one room cabin on a small island off Vancouver Island with a kerosene lantern and an old fashioned wood cookstove with a fire box about 10x12x14 or so. All winter. So we are talking about 6 months or so in total. No electricity. No tv. No radio. No running water. I can't remember where we crapped but there was no bathroom. Almost no food except oysters from the beach down the rocky cliffs, occasionally a few potatoes or carrots. Been there and done that. I hear you brother. We were hearty men back then :lol::lol::lol:. Finlander. I'm sure you've heard of us :lol::lol::lol:. (full disclosure, Dutch landlord and family did invite us in a few times for supper and liquers!! lol).
Which is why a water barrier must be maintained in bowl.
I've looked into methane traps to run small cookstoves or old fashioned gas lights. Enough gas build up pushes through the water traps. You know, it bubbles, that kind of thing.
Not from the tap.

A number of folks here have professional backgrounds and real world experience in Continuity of Operations, Disaster Response, Emergency Communitcations, CBRN Response, etc...
I know and I do appreciate the knowledge base here. This thread is about a podcast in this guys views on a few things to think about if there is a catastrophic failure of our Grid where it won't be coming back and what to think about, in a general way, for the next year or so when everyone else is busy dying off. I have a fair bit of real world experience in electronics and telecommunications in that public sector you think the military doesn't need and can function just fine without it. Sounds delusional to me.

I know what you are saying. I've looked into much of this for decades. Like Doc I've studied military history, and history of civilizations for roughly 68 years or so (I started early- it all started with Tacitus......and Tarzan), all the way back to the ongoing debates of caveman days. I decided long ago in this life that I didn't want to go into the mil and peel potatoes, so odd fortunate brought me into high tech before there was high tech, at least in the way it is perceived today.

IF there is a catastrophic failure of our society, most of the military's continuity of operations won't mean crap to most of it and it won't take that long. It will start to fall apart in the first 30 days as soon as the majority realize that there won't be any coming back. Many, maybe most, will stick around for as long as it lasts, many won't. I suggest you read first hand accounts of the retreat of the French coalition Army under Napoleon during the retreat from Moscow. It started to fall apart with every man for themselves (in general) in the first 3 weeks leaving Moscow. In less than two months it was a mob. Largest military grouping in history up to that time, and it did not take long for all semblance of military discipline to fall apart.

Human nature doesn't change. Tech might, but human nature is the very same today as it was when Achilles was arguing with Agamemnon.

Anyway, thanks.
I appreciate your opinions on this subject.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
"Sustained" EMP attack? Sustained how? Do you honestly think we or any country capable of mounting a response - whichever side of the Red curtain they are on - would simply say 'Oh golley gee gosh darn, they EMP'ed us. I hope they don't do it again.' And after the 2nd or 3rd wave? 'Please make it stop.'

You exhibit a serious lack of understanding of the forces and munitions involved. Some of us get our information from somewhere besides a fictional novel or three.

And yes, considering all the bad press PG&E brings to mind, yeah, not exactly a resume-enhancing entry. More than just the tree trimming crews screwed up over the years.

RR
Yeah, sustained. I didn't say massive. Russia does have a Fail Safe Dooms Day system set up if central control is lost. Maintaining a country wide system dies when public utilities die. Self contained launch sites could go on for a long time. You really think Russia isn't set up to keep hitting us here and there with separate launch sites if they get destroyed in a nuclear war? Just like one of our nuclear subs, launch sites could go on for a long time if the USA and Russia die. A sub would run out of missiles quickly though in an all out war. Remote launch sites? I dunno. Are we set up for sustained launches for weeks once we are destroyed? I don't know. If I've ever read anything about it I'm not recalling it.

And the Russians are hard asses. They are still hard asses. 30% of our country now are proud to display limp wrists. Apples and oranges pal, apples and oranges. Many of our young people can't handle a 3 hour shift in a coffee shack.

You seem a bit miffed. PG&E charging you too much? Yeah. Ah well. Too bad. I wouldn't whine too much as long as you can still plug your washer and dryer in and they work. Less than resume enhancing? You know nothing about I.T. work; working on a network with 22,000 computers and hundreds of servers spread over a State as large as Cali and being a Network Admin at the time still looks good on a resume.

Russia has always taken nuclear war seriously. We don't. Where is your local bomb shelter? There are none. How much education and drills have you experienced the last 40 years? Zero?

That is not the way Russia is. Yeah they basically fell apart in the 90's, but they've recovered since then and seem to be back on their game. Us? We can't make the Houthis stop shooting at us.

Russia has never stopped thinking about nuclear war. We stopped taking it seriously soon after the Soviet Union fell. Russia does have a fail safe system set up, and they are set up to keep hitting us over weeks. We can destroy them in a day; but they are still set up with independent launch systems that can keep hitting us after Day One.

Have our nuclear forces been updated the last 30 years? Other than our sub fleet, no, not really. Has Russia? Oh yeah, they've been keeping up with things. Sorry you can't handle inconvenient truths like that. Maybe you need a break from this thread and go relax with a cold one or two.
 
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