WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

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defence-blog.com
Leaked files: China deploys WZ-8 spy drones to fly over Taiwan
By Dylan Malyasov



According to classified papers cited by The Washington Post, the WZ-8 drone, capable of flying at speeds three times faster than the speed of sound and at an altitude of 30 kilometers inaccessible to air defense systems, could significantly enhance China’s intelligence-gathering capabilities.

Satellite images obtained by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) reportedly show two advanced WZ-8 jet-powered reconnaissance drones stationed at an airbase in eastern China, approximately 560 kilometers from Shanghai. These drones, as per The Washington Post, have the capability to collect cartographic data and may be utilized for missile strikes.

The documents suggest that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has likely deployed its first squadron of WZ-8 drones at a base under the command of the Eastern Theater Command, responsible for enforcing Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan.



According to disclosed files, the WZ-8 drone is slated for reconnaissance flights over Taiwan and South Korea, raising concerns among regional stakeholders about potential surveillance activities and military provocations.

The Washington Post reports that the US Department of Defense declined to comment on the matter, while the Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China has not responded to requests for comment.

As geopolitical tensions persist in the Indo-Pacific region, the deployment of advanced surveillance drones such as the WZ-8 raises questions about regional security and stability.

Dylan Malyasov
 

jward

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US House passes bills to aid Ukraine, bolster Taiwan, threaten TikTok ban
AFP
4–5 minutes


Lawmakers in the US House of Representatives on Saturday quickly passed legislation to provide to Ukraine and Israel, bolster Taiwan while also threatening a ban on TikTok if it fails to divest from Beijing.

The bills, passed in a rare Saturday session, were approved by overwhelming bipartisan votes, though they leave the future of House speaker Mike Johnson in doubt as he seeks to fend off angry far-right detractors.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the long-delayed aid package, saying the military and economic assistance would “save thousands and thousands of lives.”

The bills are the product of months of acrimonious negotiations, pressure from US allies and repeated pleas for assistance from Zelensky.

Spending bills cost the last Republican speaker of the House his job, and funding for Ukraine has been at the heart of the partisan squabbling.

The United States has been the chief military backer of Ukraine in its war against Russia, but Congress has not approved large-scale funding for its ally for nearly a year and a half, mainly because of the cross-aisle bickering.

President Joe Biden and Democratic lawmakers in Congress have been pushing for a major new weapons package for Ukraine for months.

But Republicans, influenced by the party’s presidential candidate Donald Trump, have been reluctant to provide funding to Kyiv for the drawn-out conflict.

The financing of the war has become a point of contention ahead of a presidential election in November that is expected to pit Biden against Trump once again.

Johnson, after months of hesitation, finally threw his support behind the $61 billion package for Ukraine that includes economic assistance and weapons.

“To put it bluntly, I’d rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys,” Johnson said.

Writing on social media after the bill was passed, Ukraine’s Zelensky expressed hope that the bill would soon clear the US Senate and be signed into law by Biden. “Thank you, America!” he added.

The bill also allows Biden to confiscate and sell Russian assets and provide the money to Ukraine to finance reconstruction, a move that has been embraced by other G7 nations.

The upper chamber could take the bill up as early as Tuesday, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said.
– ‘World is watching’ –

At the request of President Joe Biden, some $8 billion under one bill would be used to counter China through investment in submarine infrastructure and boosting competition with Beijing on projects built in developing countries.

Several billion dollars would be devoted to weapons for Taiwan, the self-ruled island that is claimed by China.

The first of the bills passed Saturday would force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or face a nationwide ban in the United States, where it has around 170 million users.

Western officials have voiced alarm over the popularity of TikTok with young people, alleging that it is subservient to Beijing and a conduit to spread propaganda — claims denied by the company.

TitTok sharply denounced the bill, saying it “would trample the free speech rights of 170 million Americans, devastate seven million businesses, and shutter a platform that contributes $24 billion to the US economy annually,” a TikTok spokesman said.

A total of $13 billion in military assistance has been allocated for America’s historic ally Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza.

The money will essentially be used to reinforce Israel’s Iron Dome air defenses.

More than $9 billion will be earmarked to address “the dire need for humanitarian assistance for Gaza as well as other vulnerable populations around the world,” the legislation says.

US allies are expected to warmly welcome passage of the bills in the House, but it could cost the Republican House speaker his job.

A handful of far-right isolationist Republican lawmakers have warned they may oust Johnson for supporting the bills.
 

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#Chinese fighter jets could reach #Taiwan Presidential Office in minutes: expert


Taiwan’s defense ministry reported on April 21, Chinese fighter jets were only 76 km from Keelung outside Taipei.

A Taiwanese military expert has warned that Chinese military aircraft are now flying closer to Taipei on a regular basis and could reach the Presidential Office within minutes.

Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Chang Yen-ting said that, according to Ministry of National Defense’s data, on Apr. 21, two Chinese fighter jets were spotted 41 nautical miles (76 kilometers) away from Keelung, a port city just 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) north of Taipei.

“That means they would need only around five minutes to reach the Presidential Office,” Chang told Radio Free Asia.

Taiwan’s military jets would take at least six minutes to take off in order to intercept the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, the retired general turned military expert said.

“The Taiwanese air force won’t be able to deal with it effectively,” Chang added.

According to Taiwan defense ministry’s daily reports, Chinese warplanes and vessels are now crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait – which serves as the de-facto boundary between Taiwan and mainland China – on a daily basis.

Experts say Beijing has established a “new normal” in the Strait to exert pressure on Taipei.

Responding to the general’s warning, Taiwan’s defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng was quoted by the official Central News Agency as saying that the Taiwanese military has a regular intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance system in place precisely for the purpose of preventing such scenarios from happening. He did not elaborate further.

President-elect Lai Ching-te announced Thursday the names of ministers of defense and foreign affairs among new posts in his cabinet. Lai will be sworn in officially on May 20 after winning the election in January.

His party – the Democratic Progressive Party – has been in power since 2016 and before that, between 2000-2008.

The current National Security Council (NSC) Secretary-General Wellington Koo, a former lawyer, will replace Chiu Kuo-cheng as minister of national defense.

Former Taichung Mayor Lin Chia-lung will become foreign minister, replacing Joseph Wu, who has been appointed NSC secretary-general.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use........

Thu, 05/02/2024 - 6:12am
Taiwan: Insurgents Needed
Dr. Lumpy Lumbaca
The shadow of Chinese military aggression looms large over Taiwan. While the island nation has invested in conventional military capabilities, the reality is that a conflict with China could be a classic David and Goliath scenario. To effectively deter an invasion and resist occupation, if necessary, Taiwan needs to move beyond its traditional military focus and embrace a multi-layered defense strategy that includes insurgency and resistance.[1]

An Irregular Warfare approach may raise eyebrows and concern. Some in Taiwan, the US, and the world perhaps, might worry that such preparation will be seen as provocative by the People's Republic of China (PRC), further escalating tensions.[2] However, this argument overlooks the deterrent effect a robust multi-layered defense can have. A well-prepared Taiwan, with the capability to inflict significant casualties on an invading force and make occupation a costly endeavor, is a far less attractive target.

There are competing schools of thought on the most effective way ahead for Taiwan.[3] Some within the US defense establishment and parts of Taiwan itself advocate for a "resilience" focus as the primary strategy.[4] This approach focuses on bolstering civil defense, economic self-sufficiency, and international support in support of conventional military preparation to deter and – if necessary - weather a potential invasion. While resilience has merit and is a necessary first step, it underestimates the deterrent value of a robust resistance capability and the potential to inflict significant damage on an invading force by way of organized insurgency.[5]

A multi-layered defense that embraces resistance would be a far more formidable shield. A well-trained and equipped paramilitary force,[6] distinct from the regular military and reserves,[7] but integrated into the overall defense strategy, can serve as a crucial first line of defense. These forces could be deployed alongside the regular military, performing tasks like delaying enemy advances, securing key infrastructure, and conducting counter-attacks.

But deterrence isn't just about frontal defense. A well-organized and trained civilian guerilla force can become a thorn in the side of any occupying power. Leveraging knowledge of the terrain and utilizing unconventional tactics like hit-and-run attacks, sabotage, and disruption of PLA supply lines, a civilian guerilla force can significantly raise the cost of occupation for the PLA, making a swift victory a distant dream.

While eliminating PLA occupation forces on the ground will be a top priority for Taiwan if deterrence fails, just as it is for Ukraine against their Russian invaders today, a multi-layered defense goes beyond the battlefield.[8] A clandestine network,[9] including an "underground" for covert communication and support, "auxiliary networks" that provide logistical support to the resistance, and a robust "shadow government" capable of maintaining a semblance of civilian order and leadership during occupation, is crucial for sustaining resistance efforts. Training and organizing these elements of the insurgent movement should ideally be done now, ahead of the invasion, to maximize training and education opportunities.

This strategy also leverages Taiwan's existing cooperation with US Special Operations Forces (SOF) like the Green Berets.[10] Building upon these training programs, Taiwan could establish specialized units focused on space and cyber warfare. These units could disrupt Chinese communications, gather intelligence, and potentially target key infrastructure behind enemy lines, further complicating the PLA's operations. While the US Army’s SOF-Space-Cyber “triad”[11] is still in the nascent stages of development for actual joint force implementation, its applications for Taiwan will hopefully go beyond kinetic action and find creative applications for Unconventional Warfare[12] (UW) and Foreign Internal Defense[13] (FID).

Of course, implementing such a strategy faces challenges. Public support for some aspects, particularly the more proactive elements like a civilian guerilla force, may be limited.[14] Legal frameworks for paramilitary forces and civilian engagement may need to be established or revised.[15] Resource allocation and training for all these different elements will require careful planning and investment.

Despite these challenges, the benefits outweigh the costs. A multi-layered defense system that embraces resistance strengthens deterrence by showcasing Taiwan's unwavering commitment to self-defense, discouraging the PRC from initiating an invasion in the first place. Public support can be cultivated through effective communication campaigns that emphasize the importance of citizen involvement in national defense.

More important than any specific strategy or tactic discussed to this point, however, is the necessity to understand the human dimension of insurgency. Successful resistance embraces the motivations, fears, and desires that will drive people to action. In the context of Taiwan, a multi-layered defense strategy cannot succeed without a deep dive into the cognitive aspects of the conflict. This will require understanding the Taiwan people’s will to fight. Are they prepared to endure the hardships of Irregular Warfare and a protracted occupation? What are their fears and anxieties about a potential Chinese takeover? A second human element requires an analysis of the psychology of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This is admittedly challenging and something that many around the world try to understand, but it must be considered carefully. What are the CCP’s true objectives regarding Taiwan? What happens to the Party’s calculus if insurgency follows occupation? What motivates them, and what might deter them from an invasion in the first place? Finally, the thinking of international community cannot be ignored. Of course, this is a complex matter, and nations and leaders will likely react differently and change positions as time elapses. How do we expect key partners and allies to react to a protracted insurgency? Will they offer military or economic support to Taiwan's resistance, or will they remain on the sidelines? By carefully considering these human factors, Taiwan, its allies, and the US can craft a comprehensive strategy that resonates with the people of Taiwan, discourages the CCP from aggression, and garners international backing in the face of a crisis.

Taiwan's current defense strategy is insufficient in the face of a growing threat. High-tech weapons sales and training focused primarily on the Taiwan military may prove insufficient in either deterrence or resistance. A multi-layered defense that includes insurgency offers a far more robust deterrent and increases the cost of a potential invasion for China. While politically sensitive, this approach is ultimately essential for safeguarding Taiwan's security and freedom. By taking these steps, Taiwan sends a clear message: an invasion may be swift, but occupation will be a bloody and protracted affair. This, in turn, strengthens deterrence and increases the likelihood of a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait tensions through diplomatic means. The future of Taiwan's security hinges on its ability to prepare for the worst, and a multi-layered defense strategy that includes insurgency offers the best chance to deter conflict and ensure a bright future for the island nation.

The views expressed here are those of the author alone and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Government or Department of Defense.

[1] ROC Annual Defense Report. 2023. https://www.ustaiwandefense.com/tdn...23/09/Taiwan-National-Defense-Report-2023.pdf

[2] Walsh, John. 2023. “Arming Taiwan an unacceptable provocation.” Arming Taiwan an unacceptable provocation - Asia Times; Cai, Vanessa. 2024 “Mainland China says it will watch Taiwanese military exercises closely for signs of ‘provocation.’” Mainland China to watch Taiwan military exercises for signs of ‘provocation’

[3] Swaine, Michael, and Shidore, Sarang. 2022. “A Restraint Recipe for America’s Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships.” A Restraint Recipe for America's Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships

[4] Dominguez, Gabriel. 2024. “Taiwan civil defense groups push for more resilience as China threat grows.” Taiwan civil defense groups push for more resilience as China threat grows

[5] Greer, Chris and Bassler, Chris. 2022. “Resist To Deter: Why Taiwan Needs To Focus On Irregular Warfare.” Resist to Deter: Why Taiwan Needs to Focus on Irregular Warfare - Modern War Institute

[6] Minnick, Wendell. 2019. “Taiwanese Civilians Have an Answer to Chinese Threats: Paramilitary Groups.” Taiwanese Civilians Have an Answer to Chinese Threats: Paramilitary Groups

[7] Wu, Huizhong. 2022. “Military reserves, civil defense worry Taiwan as China looms.” Military reserves, civil defense worry Taiwan as China looms

[8] Braw, Elisabeth. 2024. “Taiwan and the art of societal resilience.” Taiwan and the art of societal resilience | George W. Bush Presidential Center

[9] Lumbaca, Lumpy. 2023. “Every Taiwan Citizen A Resistance Member: Preparing For A Chinese Occupation.” Every Taiwan Citizen a Resistance Member: Preparing for a Chinese Occupation - Modern War Institute

[10] Honrada, Gabriel. 2024. “US Green Berets deploying to Taiwan’s front-line.” US Green Berets deploying to Taiwan's front-line - Asia Times

[11] White, Dottie. 2024. “Top Army’s generals for cyber, space and special operations convene for Triad partnership.” Top Army’s generals for cyber, space and special operations convene for Triad partnership

[12] US Army Special Operations Command. 2016. “Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide.” https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide_v1 0_Final_6 April 2016.pdf

[13] Joint Chiefs of Staff. 2018, 2021. “Joint Publication 3-22: Foreign Internal Defense.” https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_22.pdf

[14] Fried, Caroline. 2024. “Political compromise key for Lai to build Taiwan's resilience.” https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Political-compromise-key-for-Lai-to-build-Taiwan-s-resilience

[15] Shattuck, Thomas. 2023. “How Taipei Can Achieve Greater Civilian Buy-in for its Military Challenges.” https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/01/ho...-civilian-buy-in-for-its-military-challenges/

About the Author(s)​

J. “Lumpy” Lumbaca
Jeremiah “Lumpy” Lumbaca, PhD, is a retired US Army Green Beret officer and current Department of Defense professor of irregular warfare, counterterrorism, and special operations at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS). He can be found on X/Twitter @LumpyAsia.
 

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Jack Detsch

@JackDetsch
3h • 9 tweets • 3 min read •
Read on X


The U.S. may finally have the tool that it needs to help Taiwan turn itself into a “porcupine” to deter China: the national security supplemental.

While the $2B national security aid package doesn’t legislate what weapons will be heading over, here are 3 ways how it might be a game-changer.

() Image
1⃣ Asymmetric Defense

U.S. officials have long urged Taiwan to buy an asymmetric toolkit – mostly munitions that could sink Chinese boats before they land.

Taiwan has instead mostly opted for a more conventional diet of submarines, fighter jets, and tanks.
With Taiwan getting US military aid instead of just being another weapons buyer, the Biden admin – or any US admin – has much more say.

“The US has more say—a lot more say—in how the money will be spent because it’s US taxpayer money,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a fmr NSC official.
A congressional aide who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about ongoing military sales told @ForeignPolicy that the US has managed to speed up some of the $19B in military sales to Taiwan that have been backlogged for years ... some of which have caused concern in Washington for being decidedly un-porcupine.

Here's a list compiled by the Cato Institute of what's backlogged – note that a lot of it is more traditional weapons systems, not the asymmetric stuff. Image
2⃣ More money

Now, Taiwan will be getting more military aid through presidential drawdown authority—the same mechanism that the Biden admin has used to give Ukraine weapons right off of the Pentagon’s shelves—as well as through FMF, a program run by State and DoD that provides grant money to fund foreign militaries.

Shifting Taiwan onto the U.S. military’s dole will give the Pentagon more leverage to focus on providing Taipei weapons from Washington’s priority list.
3⃣ Boosting Taiwan's defense base

The U.S. government is also looking into building more weapons on the island, as Taiwan has done with its attempts to build itself a fleet of submarines.

“The challenge that Taiwan has is, in essence, they need two types of militaries,” said Heino Klinck. “One to deal with steady-state operations such as contending with PLA incursions into the [air defense identification zone]. And then they need a different type of military to deal with the worst-case scenario—an invasion.”

PLA incursions into the ADIZ have spiked dramatically–here's a chart from the IISS think tank. Image
Building up both of those capabilities is difficult to do for all the obvious reasons, not least being the cost.

U.S. officials have long urged Taiwan to spend more on its military. It has boosted spending by more than one-fifth, to about 2.6 percent of GDP, the highest figure in its history.

Taiwan has also acquired U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers and Sea Guardian drones.
Read more from @ForeignPolicy on Taiwan's latest defense moves:


Congress Helps Steer Taiwan Toward the ‘Porcupine Strategy’ The national security bill gives Biden more leverage to tell Taiwan what weapons to buy. Congress Helps Steer Taiwan Toward the ‘Porcupine Strategy’
First image is a Congressional Research Service graphic.
• • •
 

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US and Philippine forces stage combat drills near strategic channel off southern Taiwan
By JIM GOMEZ and AARON FAVILA



Updated 8:23 AM CDT, May 6, 2024

ITBAYAT, Philippines (AP) — U.S. Marines and their Filipino counterparts darted out of Black Hawk helicopters during combat drills Monday in the Philippines’ northernmost island town along the strategic Bashi Channel off southern Taiwan — a flashpoint in the military rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

The show of allied battle readiness in Itbayat in Batanes province is part of annual military exercises that started last month, dubbed Balikatan, Tagalog for “shoulder-to-shoulder,” and involving more than 16,000 American and Philippine military personnel.

This year’s exercises by the longtime treaty allies — the largest yet — are meant to deter possible aggression. They come against the backdrop of China’s increasingly assertive actions in the disputed South China Sea, where Chinese and Philippine coast guards and accompanying ships have had several increasingly tense faceoffs since last year.

More than 250 French and Australian forces are also participating, along with observers from several allied and security partner nations, led by Japan and European nations. The drills, which began April 22, end later this week.

In Monday’s mock battle scenario, American and Filipino forces took positions at the airfield, ringed by low-lying hills, as three Army CH-47 Chinook helicopters landed to deliver combat supplies.

Marine 1st Lt. Annie Pentaleri said aerial combat reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance drills were also planned in the far-flung region. The Associated Press was among a small group of journalists invited to attend the maneuvers.

“We are absolutely battle-ready and that’s what we train for day in and day out,” Marine Maj. Robert Patterson said. “It’s important to enhance inter-operability with our Filipino counterparts.”

Washington and Manila say the drills are not directed at any country and are crucial for improving the response to emergencies in the Philippines, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.

However, this year’s drills focus on territorial defense and are being staged mainly in two of the most sensitive fault lines in the regional rivalry between China and the United States: the disputed South China Sea and the Bashi Channel.

The critical waterway between Taiwan and the Philippines, an important trade conduit laden with international undersea cables, has been closely watched and guarded by Chinese and American forces. China considers Taiwant a part of its territory, to be annexed by force if necessary.

In a telephone call last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed to President Joe Biden that Beijing will not tolerate separatist activities by Taiwan’s independence forces, as well as “exterior indulgence and support,” an apparent reference to Washington’s support for the island.

Biden raised concerns about China’s actions in the South China Sea, including efforts to impede the Philippines, which Washington is treaty-obligated to defend, from resupplying its forces on the fiercely disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, said the message of deterrence was important. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s decision to allow U.S. forces indefinite access to two Philippine air force and naval bases in Cagayan province near Batanes under a 2014 defense pact, “would likely upgrade the U.S. military’s ability to intervene in a Taiwan contingency in a more timely manner,” he said.

“Right now, a big concern is the U.S. simply won’t get there in time,” Grossman added.

The Balikatan exercises have included live-fire drills in the disputed South China Sea during joint naval sails by the U.S., France and the Philippines. An aircraft also dropped food and other supplies on a disputed island occupied by Filipino forces as part of the maneuvers in the disputed waters.

Separately on Monday, U.S. and Philippine forces practiced repelling invading forces in the coastal province of Ilocos Norte by firing missiles and artillery rounds on floating targets at sea. The northwestern province faces the South China Sea.

“It was a huge success, the weapons were spot on,” Marine Lt. Gen. Michael Cederholm said.

In escalating high-seas encounters in disputed areas, Chinese coast guard vessels have resorted to water cannons, blocking and other dangerous maneuvers that have left Philippine navy personnel injured and supply boats damaged. The Biden administration has repeatedly warned the U.S. is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, should it come under attack.

China has strongly criticized the exercises, saying the Philippines and countries outside Asia are joining forces against Beijing, warned that the drills could lead to confrontation and undermine regional stability.

Ahead of the drills, China specifically opposed the transport of a U.S. ground-launched missile system to the northern Philippines. No missile was to be fired as the goal was only to familiarize military participants with the hi-tech weaponry in a tropical setting.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed China’s grave concern over the deployment of the missile system “at China’s doorstep.”
 

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Taiwan says four Chinese ships entered 'prohibited' waters
AFP



Four Chinese coastguard ships briefly sailed through Taiwan’s “prohibited” waters, Taipei said, urging Beijing to stop actions that “endanger” navigation safety.

China claims self-ruled democratic Taiwan as part of its territory, and has said it will not rule out using force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

The Chinese ships entered waters south of Taiwan’s outlying island of Kinmen, five kilometres (three miles) from the Chinese city of Xiamen, around 3:30 pm (0730 GMT) on Monday, Taiwan’s coastguard said in a statement later the same day.

The ships “sailed out of our prohibited and restricted waters” about an hour later, the agency said, urging Beijing to immediately stop “behaviour that endangers navigation safety”.

The sorties come weeks before the May 20 inauguration of new Taiwan president Lai Ching-te, who China regards as a dangerous separatist.

Like outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, Lai rejects China’s claim on Taiwan.

Beijing had also vowed to step up patrols around Kinmen, which is administered by Taipei, after a series of deadly fishing accidents earlier this year.

A Chinese speedboat carrying four people capsized near Kinmen on February 14 while Taiwan’s coastguard was pursuing it, leaving two dead.

Another Chinese boat capsized in the area in March, also resulting in the death of two crew members.

Taiwan’s coastguard had defended its actions, saying the boat was within “prohibited waters” and was zigzagging before it capsized, but Beijing accused Taipei of “hiding the truth” about the incident.

Defence ministry spokesman Sun Li-fang told reporters Tuesday during a flag-raising rehearsal for the May 20 inauguration that Taiwan would boost support to the coastguard in the form of surveillance and reconnaissance.

When asked if the presence of Chinese ships would disrupt the shipping of supplies to Taiwan’s offshore islands, he said “overall we are very well prepared and have full confidence in ensuring regional security”.

He added that “there is no abnormality in the Taiwan Strait at the moment”.

“We have made the most complete preparations taking into account the enemy’s threats and can cope with any unexpected situation,” Sun said.

Given the heightened tensions, Taiwanese authorities said they were on alert for potential military exercises by Beijing after May 20.
 

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#Taiwan must get serious on defense - By @ElbridgeColby



For an island facing a threat so acute, lethal and imminent, Taiwan is showing an alarming lack of urgency in dramatically strengthening its defenses.

The thinking of many Taiwanese: China threat? What China threat? I don't see any China threat. No worries, the Chinese are bluffing, they need our investment. Should focus on local issues, not China, don't warmonger. And anyway, if China invades, the Americans will fight for us, no worries.

With each passing day, the threat of a People’s Republic of China (PRC) assault on Taiwan grows. Whatever one’s view about the history, there is essentially no question that a PRC conquest of Taiwan would mark the end of the autonomy and freedom enjoyed by the island’s 23 million people.

Simply put, the PRC threat to Taiwan is genuinely existential for a free, democratic and autonomous Taiwan.

Yet one might not know it from looking at Taiwan. For an island facing a threat so acute, lethal and imminent, Taiwan is showing an alarming lack of urgency in dramatically strengthening its defenses.

This is incredibly dangerous because the fate of Taiwan depends on the military defensibility of the island. It will ultimately be military power that will deter and, if necessary, defeat a PRC invasion of Taiwan.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not be stopped by hashtags and good wishes from afar. Yet in August last year, Taiwan announced plans to spend just US$19 billion on defense — a measly 2.5 percent of the island’s GDP.

While it is true that Taiwan has made some progress, for instance in adopting an asymmetric approach to its defense, its spending and pace of preparations have been woefully inadequate given the awing scale of China’s military buildup.

Even worse, there are concerns about how serious Taiwan really is about the threat. There are few visible indicators of a society preparing to repel an attack as one might see in, say, Israel.

Indeed, Taiwanese leaders often appear more concerned about advertising their concern for the plight of others than about ensuring their own defenses, arguing, for example, that “the defense of Ukraine is also the defense of Taiwan.”

What might be causing Taiwan to be adopting this lackluster approach towards defense? Let’s examine the possibilities to see why they are all deeply unwise and ill-founded.

First, Taiwan may believe that it is already doing enough to protect its people and deter China. But let’s put things in context. China’s official defense budget is about 12 times more than what Taiwan spends. Some US government estimates put China’s actual defense spending at about $700 billion — about three times larger than the official figure.

If true, Taiwan may be spending up to 37 times less on defense than the country that is threatening to absorb it by invasion. By these numbers alone, Taiwan’s current defense spending is not just imprudent. It is borderline suicidal.

Nor is Taiwan’s level of spending especially onerous. Americans, by contrast, spend 3.5 percent of their GDP on defense.

Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, spends almost 4 percent. Israel, which faces fewer existential threats than Taiwan, spent 4.5 percent of its GDP on defense in 2022 and well over 5 percent for much of the past two decades.

Given the massive disparity in military power in the Taiwan Strait, spending 5 percent of its GDP on defense should be the floor for Taiwan. Indeed, if its security and autonomy are at stake, why not spend 10 percent?

Taiwan’s meager defense spending is doubly problematic because, despite progress in formally adopting an asymmetric strategy, the bulk of the spending still goes to big-ticket items like fighter jets and warships that are expensive and extremely vulnerable to PLA strikes.

Taiwan still remains very much behind in the acquisition of asymmetric capabilities that can meaningfully deter and deny a Chinese invasion.

The US must do everything in its power to get Taiwan these weapons as quickly as possible. Yet Taiwanese leaders themselves have undermined this effort by urging the US to send key weapons, industrial base attention, and money to Ukraine rather than Taiwan.

Second, Taiwan may be banking on the idea that China will not invade. But there’s a reason that it’s a truism that basing one’s strategy and defense posture on hope is unwise.

For an island facing the very realistic prospect of conquest by a far stronger military, it is incredibly reckless — not least because China is very clearly preparing to invade Taiwan.

In case there was any doubt, CIA Director William Burns confirmed last year that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also said that Xi intends to unify Taiwan with China “on a much faster timeline” than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, China continues to develop, at historic speeds, the capabilities that would enable an invasion.

Taiwanese defense strategy must be based on a full recognition of these realities, however unpleasant they might be. US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo recently said that “we must be ready now, next week, next month, and in the decades to come” and that China could strike with little warning. Leaders in Taipei must take this message to heart.

Third, Taiwan may be thinking that, regardless of its lackluster defense spending, the US can always be counted on to come to its rescue. It is true that Taiwan is a very important strategic interest to the US. It is not, however, an existential interest. America has a strong interest in defending Taiwan, but Americans could survive without it.

Our leaders cannot and realistically will not ask the American people to sacrifice for Taiwan at a cost that would be intolerable to the US.

And they are unlikely to ask America’s sons and daughters to fight and give more than the Taiwanese themselves are willing to. It would in fact be immoral to put our troops in harm’s way for Taiwan when Taiwanese leaders haven’t done their part to ensure our doing so would not be reckless and futile.

The fact is that Americans already face a myriad of challenges at home. And after two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, Americans will undoubtedly be skeptical about entering into another costly, bloody war.

Taipei must not take America’s commitment for granted but must work hard for it — not as a favor to Americans, but to make it more palatable for America to help defend Taiwan.

In sum, Taiwan must dramatically increase its own defense spending, readiness and preparations if it is to stand a chance of deterring, let alone, defeating a Chinese invasion alongside American help.

Further — and crucially — if Taiwan does not get serious about its defense, then even if Americans do want to intervene, it may be a moot point.

As Paparo recently testified, Taiwan’s ability to defend itself will have an outsized effect on our collective ability to defeat a Chinese invasion — or deter one in the first place. The opposite is also true.

If Taipei fails to invest in the island’s defenses, then there may come a time when Taiwan is simply no longer defensible. At that point, America’s hands will be tied, and we will be forced to prepare to deny China’s hegemonic ambitions after Taiwan falls.

To be clear, we very much do not want this outcome, but Taiwan’s lassitude is raising the risks we will be forced to confront this awful choice.

Taiwan is running out of time. It is on a knife’s edge in terms of its defensibility against a determined Chinese assault that Beijing is manifestly preparing for.

Taiwan’s task is very challenging yet straightforward. Significantly increase your defense spending. Pursue every conceivable measure to strengthen the island’s defenses against invasion and blockade.

Make the case to the world about why the defense of Taiwan is critical rather than engage in triple bank shot posturing about battles half a world away.

Demand that production and deliveries of weapons needed for the island’s defense be prioritized over all else. And match your actions and rhetoric with the urgency the moment requires.

Taiwan must change before it is too late. It is now or never.

Elbridge Colby is a principal at the Marathon Initiative. He led the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy as US deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development. He is the author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.

Image
 

jward

passin' thru
US emboldening Philippines to square off with China at sea


US Marines joined Filipino counterparts on May 5, 2024, for a mock battle at a telling location: a small, remote territory just 100 miles off the southern tip of the contested island of Taiwan.

The combat drill is part of the weekslong Exercise Balikatan that has brought together naval, air and ground forces of the Philippines and the United States, with Australia and France also joining some maneuvers.

With a “maritime strike” on May 8 in which a decommissioned ship was sunk and exercises at repelling an advancing foreign army, the aim is to display a united front against China, which Washington and Manila perceive as a threat to the region. Balikatan is Tagalog for “shoulder to shoulder.”

Joint Philippines-US naval drills have become an annual event. But as an expert in international relations, I believe this year’s drills mark an inflection point in the regional politics of the South China Sea.

For the first time, warships taking part in the exercise ventured outside the 12-mile boundary that demarcates the territorial waters of the Philippines. This extends military operations into the gray area where the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone rubs up against the territory claimed by China and designated by its “nine-dash line.”
An infographic shows a map of the South China Sea and surrounding countries, with their claims to the waters represented by dotted lines.
Map: Omar Zaghloul / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images / The Conversation

Also for the first time, the US deployed an advanced mobile launcher for medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles of a type that had been banned under the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. In addition, the Philippine Navy is showing off its newest acquisition, a South Korean-built missile frigate.

The South China Sea has long been the source of maritime disputes between China, which claims the vast majority of its waters, and nations including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

In addition, heightened tensions over the status of Taiwan – a territory that the Biden administration has pledged to defend militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion – have made the South China Sea even more strategically important.
Containment at sea

The latest joint maneuvers come amid two developments that could go some way to influence the future trajectory of tensions in the South China Sea. First, the Philippines has grown increasingly assertive in countering China’s claims in the region; and second, the US is increasingly intent on building up regional alliances as part of a strategy to contain China.

The Philippines-US alignment is more robust than ever. After a brief interval during the 2016-22 presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, US warships and military aircraft once again operate out of bases in the Philippines.

Joint naval patrols resumed in early 2023. At the same time, Manila granted US troops unprecedented access to facilities on the northern Batanes islands, which have become the focus of current joint operations.

Meanwhile, Washington has become more vocal in condemning challenges to the Philippines from China.

US officials had carefully avoided promising to protect the far-flung islands, atolls and reefs claimed by Manila for seven decades following the signing of the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines in 1951.

Only in March 2019 did then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo assert that the treaty covers all of the geographical area over which the Philippines asserts sovereignty.

In February 2023, Presidents Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Joe Biden doubled the number of bases in the Philippines open to the US military. That May, the two leaders affirmed that the Mutual Defense Treaty applies to armed attacks that take place “anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Causing waves, rocking the boat

Firmer ties to the US have been accompanied by more combative behavior on the part of the Philippines. In May 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard introduced demarcation buoys around Whitsun Reef – the site of an intense confrontation with China’s maritime militia a year earlier.
Men in fatigues stand by a missile launcher.
US troops prepare to fire an M777 howitzer during a live-fire exercise in Laur, Nueva Ecija province, Philippines. Photo: Ezra Acayan / Getty Images via The Conversation

Reports circulated three months later that Philippine marines planned to construct permanent outposts in the vicinity of the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal.

And a Philippine Coast Guard ship, with the commander of the country’s armed forces aboard, approached Scarborough Shoal in November, before being forced to retreat by Chinese maritime militia vessels.

Then in January 2024, the Philippines broke with its adherence to a prohibition on erecting structures on disputed territory, which was part of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, by installing electronic surveillance equipment on Thitu Island, which sits beyond Scarborough Shoal in the heart of a cluster of disputed formations.

This was followed by announced plans to put water desalination plants on Thitu, Nanshan Island and Second Thomas Shoal, making it possible to maintain permanent garrisons on these isolated outposts.

Manila has continued to assert its maritime rights by announcing that armed forces would escort exploration and mining activities in the exclusive economic zone.

Further acts that could be seen as provocative in Beijing followed, including the stationing of a Philippine navy corvette at nearby Palawan Island and a joint flyover by Philippine warplanes and a US Air Force B-52 heavy bomber.
A raft of Chinese responses

It is clear that the deepening of Philippines-US ties has given Manila the confidence to undertake a variety of combative acts toward China. The question is, to what ends?

A more assertive Philippines may end up contributing to the US strategy to deter Beijing from extending its presence in the South China Sea and launching what many in Washington fear: an invasion of Taiwan.

But it is possible that heightened truculence on the part of the Philippines will goad Beijing into being more aggressive, diminishing the prospects for regional stability.

As the Philippines-US alignment has strengthened, Beijing has boosted the number of warships it deploys in the South China Sea and escalated maritime operations around Thitu Island, Second Thomas Shoal and Iroquois Reef – all of which the Philippines considers its sovereign territory.

In early March 2024, two Chinese research ships moved into Benham Rise, a resource-rich shelf situated on the eastern coast of the Philippines, outside the South China Sea. Weeks later, a Philippines Coast Guard cutter surveying a sandbar near Thitu was harassed not only by Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia ships but also by a missile frigate of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, which for the first time launched a helicopter to shadow the cutter.

Washington has taken no public steps to dampen tensions between Manila and Beijing. Rather, Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed full-throated support for “our ironclad defense commitments” during a mid-March 2024 stopover in Manila.

Reassured of US backing, Marcos has amped up the rhetoric, proclaiming that Manila would respond to any troublemaking on Beijing’s part by implementing a “countermeasure package that is proportionate, deliberate and reasonable.” “Filipinos,” he added, “do not yield.”
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and US President Joe Biden walk to the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: Twitter / Screengrab / Pool

Such an approach, according to Marcos, was now feasible due to the US and its regional allies offering “to help us on what the Philippines requires to protect and secure our sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction.”

The danger is that as the Philippines grows more assured by US support, it may grow reckless in dealing with China.

Rather than deterring China from further expansion, the deepening Philippines-US alignment and associated Filipino assertiveness may only ramp up Beijing’s apprehensiveness over its continued access to the South China Sea – through which virtually all of its energy imports and most of its exports flow.

And there is little reason to expect that Washington will be able to prevent an emboldened Manila from continuing down the path of confronting China in the South China Sea.

To Beijing, the prospect of an emboldened Philippines forging active strategic partnerships with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and – most troublesome of all – Taiwan makes the situation all the more perilous.

Fred H Lawson is Professor of Government Emeritus, Northeastern University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

jward

passin' thru
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
·

Largest Chinese violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024

45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

TAIWAN CHIP MAKERS HAVE KILL SWITCH IF CHINA INVADES

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) revealed to U.S officials that it has a backup plan for its chip-making machines in case China invades.

Dutch-based ASML, which provides TSMC with one of its most important machines for manufacturing chips, can remotely switch them off and has run simulations to confirm that it would work in the event of China taking control of the plant.

ASML is the world’s only manufacturer of the machines, which sell for more than $217 million each.

Source: Bloomberg
 

mecoastie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

TAIWAN CHIP MAKERS HAVE KILL SWITCH IF CHINA INVADES

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) revealed to U.S officials that it has a backup plan for its chip-making machines in case China invades.

Dutch-based ASML, which provides TSMC with one of its most important machines for manufacturing chips, can remotely switch them off and has run simulations to confirm that it would work in the event of China taking control of the plant.

ASML is the world’s only manufacturer of the machines, which sell for more than $217 million each.

Source: Bloomberg
Or just have them rigged with explosives?
 

jward

passin' thru
Or just have them rigged with explosives?
Since our half assed sanctions functioned like only taking half a course of antibiotics, leaving the rest stronger than ever, I'm not sure how important Tiawan's semiconductor industry is to china at this point.

They may have dev. a robust enough industry of their own to blunt the effects?
 

Redleg

Veteran Member
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

TAIWAN CHIP MAKERS HAVE KILL SWITCH IF CHINA INVADES

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) revealed to U.S officials that it has a backup plan for its chip-making machines in case China invades.

Dutch-based ASML, which provides TSMC with one of its most important machines for manufacturing chips, can remotely switch them off and has run simulations to confirm that it would work in the event of China taking control of the plant.

ASML is the world’s only manufacturer of the machines, which sell for more than $217 million each.

Source: Bloomberg
Need to make it impossible for China to reverse engineer as well. Would need to destroy the tools.
Don't need to bring the tools back up if China takes them. They're lost anyway.
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#China warns #Taiwan independence forces will have "heads broken and blood flowing".

#Taiwan's military is responding to #Chinese exercises by deploying supersonic Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missile batteries & air defense systems around Taiwan.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense: "The CCP’s military exercises, which highlight its hegemony mindset, have undermined regional peace and stability. The ROC Armed Forces stand ready to defend our country. We seek no conflicts, but we will not shy away from one."
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1793657299837571528
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

BREAKING: TAIWAN PASSES CONTROVERSIAL 'PRO-CHINA' MEASURES

Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature has passed changes favoring China, reducing the president's power.

The Nationalist Party pushed these changes to give the legislature greater control over budgets, including defense spending.

Thousands protested outside, while inside, arguments on the floor broke into shouting and pushing matches.

The Nationalists Party officially back unification with China, from which Taiwan separated in 1949.

Source: Fox News
 

jward

passin' thru
@AlertChannel
CHINA COULD INVADE TAIWAN IN 1 HOUR

A military expert who accurately predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine now estimates that China could swiftly conquer Taiwan, completing the invasion in under an hour. In the first 15 minutes, China's forces would likely capture Taiwan's airports, and within 30 minutes, they could seize the capital. Such an invasion would have severe repercussions for the global economy, as Taiwan is responsible for manufacturing 70% of the world's semiconductors.
View: https://twitter.com/AlertChannel/status/1796141151495274900
 

mecoastie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
@AlertChannel
CHINA COULD INVADE TAIWAN IN 1 HOUR

A military expert who accurately predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine now estimates that China could swiftly conquer Taiwan, completing the invasion in under an hour. In the first 15 minutes, China's forces would likely capture Taiwan's airports, and within 30 minutes, they could seize the capital. Such an invasion would have severe repercussions for the global economy, as Taiwan is responsible for manufacturing 70% of the world's semiconductors.
View: https://twitter.com/AlertChannel/status/1796141151495274900
Did he predict how long it would take Russia to complete their invasion?
 

Donghe Surfer

Veteran Member
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

BREAKING: TAIWAN PASSES CONTROVERSIAL 'PRO-CHINA' MEASURES

Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature has passed changes favoring China, reducing the president's power.

The Nationalist Party pushed these changes to give the legislature greater control over budgets, including defense spending.

Thousands protested outside, while inside, arguments on the floor broke into shouting and pushing matches.

The Nationalists Party officially back unification with China, from which Taiwan separated in 1949.

Source: Fox News
Foxnews so stupid.
They are not pro-China legislative changes.
They (KMT/TPP) want to call bureaucrats to Legislative Yuan to answer questions on anything, as well as conduct investigations (like corruption). These are things that DPP (hold Presidency now and previous 8 years) tried to ram through when DPP controlled LY, but were unsuccessful.


It's all Kabuki, but let uneducated think it's a "Communist plot".

I say this all the while hating KMT anyway, cuz it's an idiot aging party
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

War is coming over Taiwan​

Joint Sword 2024's operational and strategic meaning

China's war over Taiwan illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times
China's war over Taiwan illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

COMMENTARY
By James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer - - Wednesday, May 29, 2024
The Washington Times

OPINION:
China’s preparatory efforts to invade Taiwan are accelerating. The exercise for attacks on Taiwan, termed Joint Sword 2024A, is significant for the following reasons.

First, the naming convention suggests there will be follow-on exercises such as Joint Sword 2024 B and C, which corresponds to the three elements of the Chinese military’s doctrine for an invasion of Taiwan, the Joint Fire Strike Campaign, or JFSC, Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign, or JAARC, and the Joint Island Landing Campaign, known as JILC. The idea of follow-on exercises was also suggested by a Global Times commentator on May 23 to include a fourth, part D. This means that the pace of exercises is quickening in order to mask Beijing’s intentions and preparations for war.


Second, unlike the previous Joint Sword in April 2023, which was four days in duration, 2024A is just two days, an indicator that the Central Military Commission and People’s Liberation Army are honing their skills and sharpening their command and control to bring all their power to bear in a shorter, more concentrated time frame. In essence, fulfilling this iteration of exercises will fulfill their stated goal of being able to conduct a “short, sharp war.”

That matters, because if China believes it can win quickly and decisively, then the ability of Taiwan and partners like the United States to deter such an attack is weakened. In addition, the naming of specific training objectives and elements such as “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets” adds credence to the thesis of the “short, sharp war” objective for the Chinese Communist Party and Central Military Commission.

Third, and most obvious, the closure areas are much closer to Taiwan than they were in Joint Sword 2023 or even the August 2022 missile firing exercise. This time the Joint Sword 2024A closure areas are within Taiwan’s contiguous zones — 24 nautical miles. In addition, the Chinese coast guard was noted on May 23 sailing within the territorial waters of Taiwan’s offshore islands of Wuqui and Dongyin — as close as 2.8 nautical miles.

By doing this, China is testing to see just how close to Taiwan it will be able to operate before generating a kinetic response from Taiwan, Japan or the U.S. This is invaluable information to obtain and will provide Beijing a great advantage if and when they decide to conduct an invasion
.

Fourth, the joint nature of these operations is notable. With the reports of Chinese Strategic Rocket Force missile batteries being out of garrison and conducting “mock fire strike” launches, the main emphasis of this two-day Joint Force-2024A is on “joint precision strikes on key targets,” again, what the Chinese military doctrinally calls the Joint Fire Strike Campaign. This was occurring while the other services (army, navy and air force) were engaged in “joint sea-air combat readiness patrols” and “joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control.”

According to Chinese reporting, its navy and air force platforms also conducted “mock fire strikes.” In the case of the air force, bombers and fighters were noted carrying live ordnance. We should also note that Chinese navy warships and submarines already go to sea with live ordnance. Given that follow-on phases (B, C and D) of this exercise are expected, we should look for the Chinese army to transition from the JFSC into the JAARC in the next phase that will likely also be 48 hours in duration.

Fifth, Joint Sword 2024A is also a strategic signal to Taiwanese President William Lai letting him know that every day of his administration will be under the threat of invasion, regardless of whether or not it happens. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are betting this will have a huge psychological impact on Mr. Lai and perhaps he will crack under the pressure and give in, or he will make a mistake and give Beijing an excuse to invade Taiwan.

Sixth, this announcement and exercise are also a signal to the U.S., specifically to Adm. Samuel Paparo, the new commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and our allies’ militaries that the U.S. is helpless and cannot stop China from fulfilling its strategic goal of seizing and controlling Taiwan. Moreover, Beijing knows it has sympathetic advocates in the U.S. who will amplify this “defeatist” message to America’s national security community.

Seventh, the fact that China is conducting another Joint Sword exercise should be a warning to American and allied national defense planners about the scope, scale and seriousness with which Mr. Xi, the Chinese Communist Party, the Central Military Commission and China’s military are taking toward achieving their stated goal of “reunifying” Taiwan.

Eighth, the exercise also helps us understand the completeness of their target lists in the macro. Again, Chinese news reports discuss striking key targets in the north of the country, principally calling out political targets, but they also note that Chinese forces are focusing on military targets in the south and that they are also capable of striking from anywhere around the island.

Ninth, the exercise being held in late May also reminds us that Chinese military forces will not be constrained by weather or tied to a specific month. Recall in 2022, the Chinese army conducted an unprecedented JFSC rehearsal in August 2022, then in April they conducted Joint Sword 2023 closely following the JAARC, and now exercise Joint Sword 2024A in late May with other phases likely occurring through summer.

As such, American military and political planners must not get stuck in the mindset that China will invade Taiwan only during a specific month or weather pattern. This exercise demonstrates the Chinese Communist Party wants the military to be able to invade at any time, day or night, all weather, just like the U.S. military has trained and executed throughout our history. China wants to “own the night” as the U.S. military boasts about our own operations, which give surprise and increase lethality.

Tenth, it is important to point out that while Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin are mentioned as areas of focus for targeting and isolation, the Penghu and Pescadores are not mentioned and have no closure areas near them. While it is almost certain the Penghu Islands, in the middle of the Taiwan Strait, will be targeted in any invasion of Taiwan, it also seems increasingly clear that the Chinese would not risk their entire element of operational surprise by launching an attack on the Pescadores as some assert. China’s main objective is the main island of Taiwan. The neutralization (which does not equal total destruction) of islands like Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqui, Dongyin and the Penghus are required only as they are in the avenue of approach to Taiwan.

In light of the quickened pace toward war, America must build up our kinetic warfare capabilities. First, we must move existing forces into the Pacific. For instance, we should move at least two carriers west of the international date line, in order to have at least two of three carrier strike groups in continuous operations at sea within the first and second Island chains.

Second, the president should call for and drive a national military mobilization campaign immediately, to build rapidly the platforms necessary to deter and defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Americans must understand that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will very likely include an attack on American forces in Asia.

Third, there is no better time than now for U.S. forces to conduct a combined exercise between Taiwan, America, Japan, the Philippines, and other treaty allies in the region. The recent announcement of the inclusion of the Japanese military in Exercise Valiant Shield is a step in the right direction and should be expanded.

Fourth, China’s joint operational command center in Fujian province is playing and will play a key role in any invasion of Taiwan. As such, American and allied leaders need to start planning on striking key targets on the mainland of China.
Fifth, as we state in our book, “Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure,” our allies in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan need to have tactical nuclear munitions.

The situation in the Western Pacific is dire, and Beijing must understand just how serious the U.S. and the world take Beijing’s aggression and that we will not allow such an invasion to occur without great cost to China. It may seem escalatory to some, but the fact is the China has been escalating conventional and nuclear forces for 25 years.

It is time for America to stand up and lead the fight against the illegitimate communist regime in China. The solution to the crisis in Taiwan is the eviction from power of the Chinese Communist Party.

• James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are the authors of “Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.”

 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru
Elbridge Colby
@ElbridgeColby
·

This is a clear tell that Beijing’s ambitions go well beyond Taiwan.


Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#China’s global military base strategy taking shape

RAND report identifies target countries including Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, the Solomon Islands, the UAE and Vanuatu. The report notes China already operates a logistics base in Djibouti and a paramilitary outpost in Tajikistan.

China is securing international military base access agreements to expand the global reach of its armed forces, a counter to America’s extended deterrence strategy for Taiwan while threatening India with encirclement.

This month, RAND released a report detailing how China is advancing its global military reach by negotiating base access agreements to expand its security footprint and enable overseas operations for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the People’s Armed Police (PAP).

Apart from those countries, Newsweek reported in March 2024 that China is also seeking base access in Cuba, Pakistan, Tanzania, Sri Lanka and Myanmar.

While these bases support peacetime operations like noncombatant evacuations and intelligence-gathering, their potential wartime utility is uncertain, the Rand report says. The PLA’s primary kinetic mission from these bases will likely be protecting sea lines of communication (SLOC) through 2030.

China’s military writings indicate a lack of plans or ability to utilize foreign bases for offensive actions against US forces by 2030, the Rand report says. It says China’s priority is the protection of maritime trade routes and response to possible US blockades.

The report also highlights the significant challenges the PLA faces in developing and sustaining these bases, including the political reliability of host nations, logistical support issues and base security. It notes that the PLA relies heavily on mobilized civilian assets for logistics, raising concerns about the effectiveness and resilience of the approach in wartime.

Despite efforts to build a network of strategic strongpoints and logistics support bases, including in commercial ports, the PLA’s capacity for higher-end combat operations from these locations is limited.

The Rand report suggests that increased PLA naval and air defense activities in overseas bases could indicate a shift to a more aggressive stance, but logistical and political challenges make it unlikely for PLA bases to pose a significant threat to US military interests over the next decade.

Still, this assessment might underestimate the rapid advancements in Chinese military technology and strategic planning.

In a June 2024 article for The National Interest (TNI), Brandon Weichert notes China is set to possess the biggest fleet of aircraft carriers worldwide, underscoring its massive shipbuilding advantage vis-a-vis the US.

Weichert asserts that the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) aims to use these assets to prevent US forces from entering the Indo-Pacific, thereby asserting regional dominance.

He says the PLA-N envisions its carriers as floating command centers in any potential conflict, such as an invasion or blockade of Taiwan. He also suggests that the US must adapt to a new era of contested regional waters and Chinese warships deployed in the Western Hemisphere.

China may be seeking base access in the Western Hemisphere to challenge the US’s extended deterrence in a Taiwan conflict by leveraging the threat of a direct attack on the US mainland.

In a 2023 article for the Peruvian Army Center for Strategic Studies, Robert Ellis points out that with base access in Cuba China could conduct special operations, disrupt the US military and attack the US mainland to snap key defense supply chains in a conflict scenario.

Moreover, Gordon Chang warns in a June 2023 Gatestone Institute article that China could deploy long-range missiles in Cuba to hit US Navy bases in Florida, block the movement of US vessels and shoot down planes over the southeastern US.

Meanwhile, India is concerned that China will use its economic clout to gain base access at Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, bolstering its lone overseas military base at Djibouti. This situation would challenge India’s dominance of the Indian Ocean and raise fears of encirclement.

Isaac Kardon notes in a February 2023 Foreign Policy at Brookings briefing that while China’s base at Djibouti can support its naval operations in the Indian Ocean, it lies at the end of tenuous supply lines.

Kardon says that China’s Djibouti facility is isolated and operationally limited because it does not receive mutual support from other Chinese military facilities in the Indian Ocean. However, Kardon points out that China’s dual-use commercial facilities at Gwadar and Hambantota have nonetheless become important nodes for its naval operations.

As for Gwadar, Kardon and other authors mention in an August 2020 China Maritime Studies Institute report that the facility can become a long-term rest and replenishment location for the PLA-N, noting its geographic location, military importance and Chinese port operator.

Kardon and others also say that some circles in the PLA believe that Chinese base access to Gwadar is already as good as established, quoting a PLA officer saying, “The food is already on the plate; we’ll eat it whenever we want to.”

Likewise, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported in July 2023 that Hambantota will most likely be China’s next military base in the Indian Ocean, pointing out that China has direct control of the facility and represents its single largest port investment.

In a military sense, Gwadar and Hambantota can support a more persistent Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean, which could eventually threaten India’s sea-based nuclear deterrent.

Asia Times noted this month that India may be planning to turn the Bay of Bengal into a bastion for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), with the area’s deep waters providing better cover than the congested waters of the Arabian Sea.

Operating from a massive submarine base at Rambilli, India’s SSBNs would patrol the Bay of Bengal with the area protected by surface assets such as aircraft carriers and destroyers. Such a strategy would allow India to launch nuclear-tipped submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) at Pakistan and China undetected.

However, China-India nuclear tensions are most likely to result from mutual penetrations of each other’s bastions using conventional assets. In that scenario, Chinese warships operating from Gwadar and Hambantota may track the movement of India’s SSBNs.

At the same time, India is considering boosting its South China Sea naval presence, where China intends to establish a bastion for its SSBNs, mirroring India’s intentions in the Bay of Bengal.

 

CGTech

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Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
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UNCONFIRMED — XI JINPING REPORTEDLY SUFFERS STROKE Social media in China is abuzz with news that President Xi suffered a stroke during a CCP meeting. Although there is no official confirmation yet, the viral news has caused significant unrest. Sources: Local Media

if true, things could get very interesting over there, while power struggles work themselves out. Of course, it does depend on how bad the hypothetical stroke is..
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
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UNCONFIRMED — XI JINPING REPORTEDLY SUFFERS STROKE Social media in China is abuzz with news that President Xi suffered a stroke during a CCP meeting. Although there is no official confirmation yet, the viral news has caused significant unrest. Sources: Local Media
yes, i've been posting on this on the "korea and asia-pacific thread- or whatever it's called.
-Anyway, as noted, it looked like faux news from bot farms, and the idea that it may have been one of those "loyalty tests" moves by Xi seems even more likely now that we learn his former foreign minister has been expelled from the highest gov. body......
 
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