WAR China Can No Longer Invade Taiwan

M

Mac

Veteran Member
Not sure why they would need to invade. It's an island that is totally dependent on imports for almost everything. A naval blockade, or high tech seige, could be effective if given time.

Now, China would have to face down the US Navy in that scenario, but probably would anyway. And if China could threaten the world supply of semiconductors the west could back down.

It would be a high stakes gamble bit wouldn't call for a costly ground invasion across the straits.
 
raven

raven

TB Fanatic
The PRC believes they are the legitimate government of China.
Taiwan also believes they are the legitimate government of China.

They can just have an election and the losers have to suck it up . . . just like America or Ukraine or anywhere else.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Mac said:
Not sure why they would need to invade. It's an island that is totally dependent on imports for almost everything. A naval blockade, or high tech seige, could be effective if given time.

Now, China would have to face down the US Navy in that scenario, but probably would anyway. And if China could threaten the world supply of semiconductors the west could back down.

It would be a high stakes gamble bit wouldn't call for a costly ground invasion across the straits.
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Covered in the video, really. Basically, Winnie the Xi cannot stand that a part of China is not under his direct control, and his sad little ego will not allow this to continue. The problem is that his army cannot cash the check his mouth is writing, and therefore, there will be no invasion.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Mac said:
Not sure why they would need to invade. It's an island that is totally dependent on imports for almost everything. A naval blockade, or high tech seige, could be effective if given time.

Now, China would have to face down the US Navy in that scenario, but probably would anyway. And if China could threaten the world supply of semiconductors the west could back down.

It would be a high stakes gamble bit wouldn't call for a costly ground invasion across the straits.
Click to expand...

Yeah, 3 or 4 USN SSNs would be one heck of a counter blockade to the PLAN.
 
T

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Blacknarwhal said:
Basically, Winnie the Xi cannot stand that a part of China is not under his direct control ...
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As far as I know it's been China's policy to "recover" quite a few "lost provinces" for many decades now, long before Xi rose to power. So it's not about Xi's ego, it's about China's "face."
 
Illini Warrior

Illini Warrior

Illini Warrior
I personally think China missed their chance - the very second Trump enters the WH China's economic problems just went 10X further in the hole - there's leftover biz for Trump - he holds them responsible for Covid and the $$$$$ involved ....

in addition - their program << whatever it is >> to dump these military edged illegals into the country is going to get it's own deportation task force >>> if investigation shows what everyone else thinks it is - whole new game play starts
 
F

fi103r

Veteran Member
I think the biggest recalculation going on is due to the close to no hitter thrown by Isreal v Iran missle barrages,
Yes you can launch a curtian or missiles but golden bb works both ways
I’m still puzzled that the IDF didn’t “allow”
a series of “hits”on the dome of the rock
golden opportunities and all that
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Well, the point remains, regardless of whether you disapprove of the synopsis or are plotting invasions on candy instead.

China's window for invasion has closed. And quite possibly for good. That means there will be no convenient distracting war to take the average Xian's eyes off the crippling economic depression that China is in right now and that will be getting worse. There will also be no mighty Chinese colossus invading the United States, so the Jeremiads will have to find a new woe to bitterly crow.
 
Dobbin

Dobbin

Faithful Steed
raven said:
They can just have an election and the losers have to suck it up . . . just like America or Ukraine or anywhere else.
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The CCP can hire Dominion Systems to run the election - just like the US.

Weren't Dominion Servers located in Ukraine?

Dobbin
 
raven

raven

TB Fanatic
There's a billion and a half people in China and Taiwan is only a hundred miles offshore.
Sneaky little f'ers can just swim, over.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
raven said:
There's a billion and a half people in China and Taiwan is only a hundred miles offshore.
Sneaky little f'ers can just swim, over.
Click to expand...

The video actually talked about that. The Chinese could get into the ports, but there's not much to stop the Taiwanese from denying China the ports through simple destruction. And the Taiwanese military is mostly located in mountain bases, so even if the Chinese get sneaky, they'll end up on the beach with no idea where to go.

That and somehow I think China planning to build a bridge of corpses to Taiwan won't sit well with those about to be the building material....
 
lisa

lisa

Veteran Member
Synopsis:
Chinese rocket force in the military is in disarray because Xi did a big purge of his rocket force military powerbase in 2023. A USA spy report says the missiles and missile bases are in terrible disrepair and many aren't even functional. The missiles are the main focus for the attack but are unavailable.
Taiwan has mountain bases and can hunker down long-term even if China takes the ports.
China's economy is failing with high youth unemployment and a real estate market in shambles.
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
lisa said:
Synopsis:
Chinese rocket force in the military is in disarray because Xi did a big purge of his rocket force military powerbase in 2023. A USA spy report says the missiles and missile bases are in terrible disrepair and many aren't even functional. The missiles are the main focus for the attack but are unavailable.
Taiwan has mountain bases and can hunker down long-term even if China takes the ports.
China's economy is failing with high youth unemployment and a real estate market in shambles.
Click to expand...

Yes, all of this is in the video. Also enjoy such high-quality points as "Our missiles are full of water," and "Our troops are using rocket fuel to cook hotpot."

Thank you, Lisa. Hopefully now people can stop complaining about the quality of the synopsis and instead talk about the content. :rolleyes:
 
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Grumphau

Grumphau

Veteran Member
raven said:
The PRC believes they are the legitimate government of China.
Taiwan also believes they are the legitimate government of China.

They can just have an election and the losers have to suck it up . . . just like America or Ukraine or anywhere else.
Click to expand...
I don't think either side would accept the results of such an election.
 
writerrecluse

writerrecluse

Contributing Member
The PRC doesn't have to be able to invade Taiwan successfully to cause a world of hurt. They just have to think they can invade Taiwan successfully to give it a try. The problem in a world with a weak America is that a lot of two bit tyrants see this as one big obstacle out of the way. If Xi listens to a bunch of PLA yes men who weathered the purges, sees the state of American leadership and has a need for distractions on the home front, he might just get the party started.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Blacknarwhal said:
...um...it...it sure looks like that invasion's out of the picture. But check it out, see what you think.

19:12 Why China's invasion of Taiwan is now impossible.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QekoFR-tlZs
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I think that this is disinformation, Sun Tzu wrote "when you are strong, let your enemy think that you are weak." All war is based on deception.

Also I have not heard this from Bill Gertz who writes on China.
 
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raven

raven

TB Fanatic
China has a population of 1.3 Billion and is 100 miles from Taiwan
The US has a population of 330 Million and is 6500 miles from Taiwan

it is only a matter of time
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
raven said:
There's a billion and a half people in China and Taiwan is only a hundred miles offshore.
Sneaky little f'ers can just swim, over.
Click to expand...

The Taiwan Straits are as bad as the North Sea a lot of the year. That's not something you want to do a "reverse Dunkirk" into. That requires real amphibious warfare assets.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
raven said:
China has a population of 1.3 Billion and is 100 miles from Taiwan
The US has a population of 330 Million and is 6500 miles from Taiwan

it is only a matter of time
Click to expand...

Considering Biden's latest performances a "matter of time" can be applied to a lot of things......
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
northern watch said:
I think that this is disinformation, Sun Tzu wrote "when you are strong, let your enemy think that you are weak." All war is based on deception.

Also I have not heard this from Bill Gertz who writes on China.
Click to expand...

I understand where you might think that, but when you consider the sheer amount of negative information coming out of China--a cratering economy, a teetering banking system, a dictator with a tenuous, at best, grip on power--it's difficult to brush it all aside as merely propaganda. Because right now, China looks like it's one disaster away from anarchy, and that can't possibly mean it's ready to break the world in two with a footstep.
 
BadMedicine

BadMedicine

Would *I* Lie???
A few things China cannot factor into this little equation.

A *FEW* of the more salient are:

WHO is running the country? By now SOMEONE other than sleepy geriatric JOE MUST have the codes to the football otherwise *WHEN* he dies in his sleep we'd be open/ dead in the water. This is VERY VERY VERY unlikely.

WHERE are the boomer subs? Can be anywhere in a few days, but with this sable rattling and show of force around the SE see, they SHOULD ASSUME there are a few in the vicinity. They might not be, joe being the anti-american POS that he is, but they should sure as hell assume it.

What countries will join in and on which side? Australia, the Philippines, SK, Japan, pretty much every neighbor to China hates them.

What will Russia do? Nuetral? Attack china- their biggest regional competitor? Attack the US-as they may have plans together, or will they double cross china, and let them smolder?

Too many unknowns. and "Xi" may be saying "reunification" for political and face saving reasons, when in reality he is about the 3rd most powerful person in the world (after US pres & Putin.. maybe tied with putin..) He has a LOT to lose, is reaching his golden years, has family and loved ones.... do you really think HE REALLY THINKS the CCP would come out of a global fracas? They wouldn't. If shit went thermal they'd be so far under ground they have to use a bat's ass for light. I don't think Xi wants to spend his last good years in a musty cellar or worse. It would not be quick. Would not be pretty, and would not be decisive.

The commies decided and implemented a LONG time ago, they would take us from WITHIN.
 
Meadowlark

Meadowlark

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Xi is presently feasting on humble pie after learning, due to corruption, his mighty military machine is a paper tiger filled with water fueled ICBMs instead of rocket fuel and aircraft engines that are laughably behind the times.
 
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