HEALTH 11/1-11/18/09 Weekly Bird&Other Flus Thread:189 Deaths Ukraine - Belarus 223K Cases

JPD

Inactive
189 Deaths Reported in Ukraine - Belarus to 223K Cases

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11100902/Ukraine_189_Belarus.html

1,122,188 Influenza/ARI

57,286 Hospitalized

189 Deaths

The above numbers are from the latest report from Ukraine. Numbers in all categories continue to rise, The two locations with the biggest increases were Kiev (8062 to 76,285) and Kiev Oblast (6,522 to 56,688). These increases indicate the H1N1 is spreading east and the high numbers in the Kiev region may be associated with the jump of cases in the Gomel region in Belarus, with 48,754 cases in influenza/ARI (see map). Belarus also reported 8 fatal pneumonia cases fro the region, and larger numbers of fatalities had been reported earlier for Minsk. For the entire country, Belarus reported 223,349 cases, further supporting the H1N1 spread in the region.

Although the number of fatalities in Belarus is increasing, and may rival Ukraine, samples were sent to Mill Hill from Ukraine at the beginning of the month, and an announcement of sequencing data has been delayed.

The steady increases of H1N1 cases and hemorrhagic pneumonia deaths in Ukraine, as well as similar numbers reported for Belarus, increase concerns about the sequencing delays.

The sequences should be made public immediately.
 

JPD

Inactive
Suspect H1N1 Death in Romania Near Ukraine Border

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11100901/Romania_Death.html

A man of 47 years of common Botosani Spear died Tuesday morning at home or, and authorities are considering alternative that they were sick of swine flu, informs Agerpres.Cops have limited access area and male family members are not allowed to leave the house. Prefect Botosani, Cristian Roman, president of the County Committee for Emergency, says that this case is treated, for now, as "suspicious death", the expected results necropsiei to be taken are appropriate.Ministry of Health was informed about this case. Doctors have taken samples to be sent to the Institute for Infectious Diseases "Matei Bals".

Oana Grigore, communications director for Health, said they did not confirm any cases of death by influenza A/H1N1 virus, adding that if the patient died in Botosani it is a man of 47 years, smoking, obesity , which was not seen by any doctor.

The above translation described a suspect swine flu death in northern Romania near the southern border of Ukraine (see map). This report follows a similar report from Belarus regarding a doctor who died in southern Belarus, near the northern border of Ukraine.

However, it is not clear if these recent reports reflect spillage of the H1N1 in Ukraine, or simply represents deaths identified through enhanced surveillance. Ukraine has now reported over 1 million influenza/ARI cases, including 174 deaths. The cause of these alarming numbers has been said to be later treatment, but the magnitude of the outbreak raises concerns that there have been genetic changes leading to enhanced transmission and increase lethality from hemorrhagic pneumonia.

The recent description of 90 hemorrhagic pneumonia cases has left little doubt that these deaths were due to H1N1 due to lab confirmation on a sub-set and an age distribution which matches H1N1 outbreaks worldwide.

The genetic changes can be addressed through sequence analysis, but the sequences and/or a description of the sequences has been delayed.

Release of sequences is overdue.
 

JPD

Inactive
Belarus Reports Almost 1/4 Million Flu Cases

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11100903/Belarus_QMillion.html

The press service of the Gomel regional executive committee BelaPAN reported that in the Gomel region died of pneumonia eight people. Pneumonia was diagnosed in 827 people, including a 643 adults and 184 children.

According to the press service of Belarus continues to rise in the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infections (ARI). From 2 to 9 November in 18 cities of the republic controls 223,349 registered cases of influenza and ARI. Among the control of cities, the highest incidence rates of influenza and ARI recorded in Rechitsa, Gomel, Mozyr, Molodechno, Mogilev, Vitebsk, Borisov, Minsk, Soligorsk.

In the region from 2 to 9 November diagnosed with influenza and acute respiratory infections (ARI), put 48,752 people, of which the proportion of children was 49% (24051), adults - 51% (24701). Share hospitalized was 2.7% (1,299 people). Among the hospitalized children predominate (60%).

At all administrative territories of the Gomel region introduced a set of preventive measures. In connection with a high incidence in Gomel region on November 9 in 169 schools and three vocational training institutions suspended the learning process.

The above translation describes a significant influenza outbreak in Belarus, which has many similarities with Ukraine. Eight pneumonia deaths have been reported in Gomel, which is adjacent to the Kiev Oblast in Ukraine (see map). In the latest report from Ukraine, the largest increases in cases were in Kiev and Kiev Oblast. In addition, 10 suspect H1N1 deaths in Minsk have been reported suggesting that the deaths may also be linked to H1N1 and hemorrhagic pneumonia. 90 such fatalities were described in Ukraine, and the total disintegration of both lungs is similar to cases described in the United States and Mexico, as well as cases in 1918.

The cases in Belarus are widespread and the numbers cited for Gomel would be above the epidemic threshold. Most areas in Ukraine are also above the epidemic threshold, while the remaining areas are near the threshold.

These high rates are driven by H1N1 because levels of other seasonal flu's throughout Europe and North America are negligible. Well over 99% of sub-typed flu is swine H1N1.

The deaths in Belarus and Ukraine raise concerns that there have been small genetic changes in the virus position 225. These changes (D225G, D225N, and D225E) have been reported in multiple swine H1N1 isolates, including recent isolates from fatal cases in Sau Paulo, Brazil.

The expanding number of cases and fatalities increases concerns created by the delay in the release of H1N1 sequences from Ukraine
 

JPD

Inactive
WHO Appeals to Ukraine for Help with Hemorrhagic Pneumonia

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11110901/Ukraine_Help_WHO.html

WHO experts appealed to Ukrainian physicians requested to report positive experiences in treating patients with severe influenza A/H1N1, so it can be used not only in Ukraine but other countries, the WHO European Region.

The above translation is from a report today by the Ukraine Ministry of Health. It is an appeal for Ukrainian physicians to detail positive outcomes from efforts to deal with the fatal pneumonia cases in Ukraine (see map). Ninety such patients were described earlier. H1N1 infections led to the "total destruction" of both lungs.

This request further highlights the need to release the sequences from these patients. Mill Hill has had the samples for well over a week, and should have had full sequences last week. Recent sequences from fatal cases in Sao Paulo, Brazil had receptor binding changes (D225N and D225G), and there are concerns that these changes or other single nucleotide polymorphisms could significantly affect clinical presentations and outcomes.

Release of H1N1 sequences from Ukraine is long overdue.
 

JPD

Inactive
Media Myths on Swin Flu in Ukraine Raise Concerns

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11110902/Ukraine_MM.html

Some 1.1 million people were infected with the flu on Wednesday, according to the ministry's estimates, down from a Tuesday high of 1.3 million.

At least 30 people had been infected by the virulent A/H1N1 swine flu virus, according to the most recent official data.

The above comments in the same English language report continue to confuse. The Ukraine Ministry of Health has been putting out daily updates on influenza/ARI cases (see map), which now top 1 million. Since there is virtually no seasonal flu circulating in Europe, the vast majority of these cases are due to swine H1N1. Moreover, the clinical presentation of ninety fatal cases was presented. These patients were coughing up blood and their lungs totally disintegrated. A small number were tested and were shown to be H1N1 positive.

However, the number of lab confirmed cases is small because of limited testing. Consequently, the reports of over 1 million flu cases and 30 H1N1 cases gives the false impression that the number of H1N1 cases is a tiny fraction of the flu cases, when just the opposite is true.

The situation is further distorted by official reports of flu in European countries, which show the absence of serotypes other than swine flu (which represent well over 99% of flu cases), yet show one fatality in Ukraine, when the official tally of influenza/ARI pneumonia deaths is 189.

These media and agency reports create significant confusion, which is true for countries throughout Europe. H1N1 testing in most countries is minimal, so the vast majority of cases are not tested. However the flu0like cases are reported, creating an illusion that only a small portion of flu cases are due to H1N1. In neighboring Belarus, almost ¼ million cases were reported in the past week, but only a small percentage at classified as lab confirmed H1N1.

Thus, media and agency reports continue to confuse, by reporting influenza cases based on symptoms followed by numbers for lab confirmed cases which are a tiny fraction of the number of cases.

Moreover, even though the number of cases and deaths in Ukraine continue to rise, the sequences from the Ukraine cases have not been released.
 

JPD

Inactive
Fresh Bird Flu Outbreak Worries Health Officials

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/11/11/2009111100713.html

The resurgence of bird flu in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province is causing concerns to health authorities as the H1N1 flu scare continues. A low pathogenic bird-flu virus was found in excrement of migratory birds in a reservoir in Chuncheon. Despite the low infectiousness, health authorities claim they cannot rule out danger to humans or mutation and pledged to stay alert.

The worst-case scenario is that patients infected with the H1N1 virus could additionally contract bird flu, leading to a mutation that gives rise to a new supervirus. "But that doesn't necessarily mean that a new form of virus will be formed when the bird flu virus appears amid the spread of H1N1 virus," a health official said. "But if that did actually happen, the situation we've seen so far would be a mere shadow of what lies ahead. That's why we have to take preventive measures."

Disease prevention headquarters on Tuesday said it will vaccinate some 40,000 fowl breeders from the third week of this month instead of December as originally planned.
 

JPD

Inactive
More ferrets in Oregon get swine flu from owners

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/more_ferrets_in_oregon_get_swi.html

More ferrets in Oregon have developed swine flu from their owners, fueling worries that the virus could jump from the pets to people.

“We are advising vets to take care because of the possibility of animal to human transmission,” said Emilio DeBess, the state public health veterinarian.

So far, the virus has only gone one way — from owners to their ferrets.

In early October, the first case of human to ferret transmission of the H1N1 virus was documented by DeBess in the Portland area. Then at the end of last month, nine ferrets owned by a family in Roseburg came down with flulike symptoms, he said.

That was a week after two kids in the Roseburg family — a teenager and a child younger than 10 — got sick with the swine flu.

Like the kids, the ferrets developed high fevers, red eyes, runny noses and they were coughing and sneezing.

“If the ferrets could talk, they’d say ‘Oh my God, my body aches,’” DeBess said.

Tests on three of the ferrets confirmed that they had the H1N1 virus. DeBess suspects that the others had the virus as well.

Ferrets, which mimic human flu symptoms, are used in labs researching the flu. DeBess said ferrets are especially susceptible to catching pneumonia.

A pet ferret in Nebraska that caught the H1N1 virus from its family died, and a cat in Iowa has come down with the virus, said Michael San Filippo, spokesman for the American Veterinary Medical Association.

Pigs in Indiana have also contracted the virus along with swine in Canada and other countries. Two health inspectors were infected with the H1N1 virus when they visited the sick swine herd in Canada, San Filippo said.

“These are the only two cases that we know of of animals passing the virus to people,” San Filippo said. “All the other cases involve are people passing it to animals.”

Still, DeBess has warned veterinarians in the state to protect themselves from sneezing and coughing ferrets and other pets. Owners need to take precautions as well, he said.

The virus passes from humans to ferrets — or cats — the same way it is transmitted among humans. Coughing and sneezing can spread the virus which can remain infectious for about a week outside the body. That means that owners — and vets — need to thoroughly wash their hands when handling sick pets or when they are sick.

The ferrets and their owners in both the Portland area and Roseburg are fine, DeBess said.

The flu season is far from over. So far, 1,015 people have been hospitalized in Oregon with influenza-like illness and 33 people have died, the Department of Human Services said today.
 

JPD

Inactive
Swine Flu Deaths in Europe Doubling Weekly, Health Agency Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a0lsBa8v.yew

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu deaths in Europe doubled in three of the last four weeks, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said.

Eighty-four people in 31 European Union and European Free Trade Association countries died from swine flu last week, compared with 43 the week before, Stockholm-based ECDC said in a bulletin on its Web site. Two weeks ago, 49 people died, up from 24 and 12 the previous weeks, the agency said.

“We are globally entering the acceleration phase” of the pandemic, Denis Coulombier, head of the ECDC’s unit of preparedness and response, said in a telephone interview late yesterday. “We are heading toward the peak for sure.”

The region’s swine flu outbreak has been most severe in northern countries such as Ireland, Iceland and the Ural region of Russia, according to the World Health Organization’s regional office in Copenhagen. Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands are also experiencing significant levels of the illness, the WHO said in its Nov. 6 weekly report.

A total of 414 people in Europe have died from swine flu since the outbreak began in Mexico and the U.S. in April, ECDC said. The figure includes 155 deaths in the U.K., 73 in Spain, 31 in Italy and 30 in France since the beginning of the pandemic.

Almost 80 percent of all swine flu cases in Europe have occurred in people under 30 years of age, according to a risk assessment published by ECDC on Nov. 6.

Young People

“In the acceleration phase, it’s not a surprise that the younger ones are the ones who are most contributing to the spread,” Coulombier said. “It doesn’t mean at the end of the wave you will have the same pattern.”

ECDC was established five years ago by the European Union to assist its member states in responding to communicable diseases. Its statistics are probably “gross underestimates” because health-care systems, laboratory testing, surveillance and definitions used to identify cases vary across Europe and affect reporting, the agency said.

The Geneva-based WHO estimated on Nov. 6 that 482,300 people worldwide have been sickened by the H1N1 virus that causes swine flu and 6,000 have died.

Russia has confirmed 4,560 cases of the disease, almost 4,000 of them since Oct. 6, the state public health service Rospotrebnadzor said on Nov. 6. Nineteen people aged 20 years to 53 years had died as of Nov. 2, the majority of them from pneumonia after failing to seek medical attention, the agency said.

Cold Weather

Cold weather and humidity have spurred Russia’s swine flu outbreak, said Oleg Kiselev, head of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Influenza Institute in St. Petersburg. The pandemic is expected to peak in the country in December, Kiselev said.

“We are planning to vaccinate as many as 20 percent of the population, which will cut the number of swine flu cases by half and significantly reduce the death toll,” Kiselev said in a telephone interview on Nov. 10.

Swine flu immunization programs are under way in most European countries. Risk groups such as pregnant women and people with existing medical conditions are among the first people getting the shots.

An estimated 620,000 people in England, about 1 in 82, had contracted swine flu through last week. About one-fifth of those hospitalized for the illness last week were in intensive care, the highest level since the pandemic began, Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson said.

Projected Peak

The pandemic is projected to peak in the U.K. this month, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College in London, said through his spokeswoman Emily Lyons on Oct. 29.

Admissions to Dutch hospitals for swine flu doubled over the previous week for the second week in a row, according to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. Seven people died from the illness last week, bringing the total number to 17.

Norway had 6,300 confirmed cases of swine flu as of Nov. 4, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Sixteen people had died from the illness as of Nov. 9 and all but two of them had risk factors, the institute said.

The Norwegian government temporarily removed the requirement for a prescription for Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline Plc’s Relenza last week, enabling pharmacies to directly dispense the antiviral drugs. It also started an intensive-care registry to track severely ill swine flu patients last month.

Sweden had 647 laboratory-confirmed cases of swine flu in the week ended Nov. 1, compared to 350 cases in the week ended Oct. 25 and 197 cases in the week ended Oct. 18, according to the Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control. A total of 2,771 cases have been recorded since May, and three people have died, all of them middle-aged and suffering from underlying medical conditions.

The pandemic is at the beginning of its cycle in Sweden, the institute has said.
 
.......

thank you JPD. The most recent 'news' has been hard to come by from the East.



Kiev (8062 to 76,285) and Kiev Oblast (6,522 to 56,688). These increases indicate the H1N1 is spreading east and the high numbers in the Kiev region may be associated with the jump of cases in the Gomel region in Belarus, with 48,754 cases in influenza/ARI (see map). Belarus also reported 8 fatal pneumonia cases fro the region, and larger numbers of fatalities had been reported earlier for Minsk. For the entire country, Belarus reported 223,349 cases


I simply don't believe the death rates. In Kali, of those hospitalized, 11% died. And that was regular ole' swine flu. The last reports had about 60,000 in the Ukraine hospitalized. That should equal out to 6,000 deaths give or take a thousand or two. And I suspect that health care in the Ukraine is somewhat less elegant and widespread as it is in Kali.


In addition, the latest reports have said that over 2000 health care workers are sick, and of those 667 or so are doctors.

Well, doctors have access to the best anti-virals and anti-bacteriums, as well as vaccinations, and the best of equipment.

And it is my understanding that doctors don't get sick - in a general sense - during flu season.


That is a huge warning sign. And now it has spread to Belarus, in a huge way.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine Dead Increase to 213 - Still No Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11110903/Ukraine_213.html

1,192,481 Influenza/ARI

62,462 Hospitalized

213 Dead

The above figures are from the latest update from the Ukraine Ministry of Health. The biggest increase in cases was again in Kiev, with 6958 new cases report in the past 24 hours. The 83,243 reported cases is the second highest, which again signals the spread of the virus to the east. Lviv oblast still has the most cases, 171,781, and deaths, 81. Only 7 of the 27 reporting locations have not crossed the epidemic threshold, and now most locations have reported deaths (see map). The jump in reported deaths to 213 represents an increase of 24 in 24 hours and raises concerns that the death toll will continue to rise due to the large number of patients who are still hospitalized (25,968 of the hospitalized patients above have been discharged).

The deaths include the 90 who were detailed previously, but media reports claim that only 17of the 213 are due to swine flu, which is due to the limited testing / collection of samples. These under-representations of swine flu cases and deaths are widespread and create continual confusion. The only flu circulating in Europe is swine flu, which accounts for the vast majority of the more than 1 million cases listed above.

The number of cases and fatalities is unusually high, and has raised concerns about the sequences of the H1N1 circulating in Ukraine. Although earlier announcements from WHO indicated details on the sequences would be forthcoming, such information has been delayed. The recent release of H1N1 sequences from fatal cases in Sau Paulo, Brazil with receptor binding domain changes at position 225 (D225N and D225G) have raised concerns that similar changes will be present in the Ukraine sequences, leading to more virulence resulting in the hemorrhagic pneumonia described in fatal cases when both lungs were destroyed. Although such cases have been reported previously, the number of such cases in Ukraine was unusually high.

The sequences at Mill Hill should be released immediately.
 

JPD

Inactive
Indonesia

Lebak, Banten ::: Bird flu outbreak in several villages.
Bird flu infected chickens disposed to irrigation canal

http://birdflucorner.wordpress.com/

Lebak, Banten – Livestock Service of Kabupaten Lebak, Banten Province monitored several villages of bird flu outbreak in Kecamatan Kalanganyar after hundreds of chickens were found suddenly died.

One of dead chickens was tested positive bird flu infection.

Following to this finding, disinfection has been done to chicken cages around the infected cage. Dead chickens were buried to prevent bird to human virus transmission.

Up to present moment, there is no report about bird flu symptom in people.

To prevent any bird flu transmission to human, Livestock service has done public socialization. People were asked to keep their chickens caged; to maintain self-hygiene, by washing hand after contact with birds; and to apply farm bio-security practice by cleaning chicken cages with detergent.

Source: Indonesia news office, ANTARA. http://antaranews.com/berita/1257703957/ratusan-ayam-mati-mendadak-di-kalanganyar

Lebak, Banten – Dozen of dead chicken bodies tested positive bird flu infection have been disposed into irrigation canal of Kampung Babakan, Desa Aweh, Kecamatan Kalanganyar on Monday (9/11).

Worrying of bird flu infection, people reported bad smell of rotten chicken bodies came from the irrigation canal to local livestock service. According to this report, officials dispatched to investigate the location. Examination to several chicken samples showed those chickens had died of bird flu infection.

It is assumed those chickens belong to farms of Desa Aweh that had bird flu outbreak several days ago.

Head of Health Service of Kabupaten Lebak, Maman Sukiman mentioned health service officials have investigated any incident of bird flu infection in human in affected areas, Kecamatan Kalanganyar and Cikulur. So far, no bird flu infection in human reported. However, for prevention health service has distributed 4,000 Tamiflu to all public health centers in Kabupaten Lebak.

Source: Indonesia newspaper, HuPelita. http://www.hupelita.com/cetakartikel.php?id=83044
 

JPD

Inactive
West, North Sumatera ::: Bird flu outbreak

http://birdflucorner.wordpress.com/

Padang, West Sumatera – Agriculture, Livestock and Horticulture Service (Dispernaktura) of Kabupaten Pasaman Barat identified hundreds of chicken infected by bird flu H5N1 virus in Kecamatan Pasaman, Jorong Padang Durian Hijau and Kecamatan Luhak Nan Duo, Jorong Padang Lawas.

“After field investigation, we found bird flu positive from those two districts. Confirmation made by laboratory test in Bukittinggi,” said Head of Dispernaktura of Pasaman Barat, Jhonniwar on Monday (9/11).

Preventive measures have been done by disinfection of flocks and surrounding area in 500 meter, followed by depopulation to infected chickens.

Source: Indonesia local newspaper, Padang Today. http://padang-today.com/?today=news&id=10912



Tapanuli Selatan (Tapsel) , North Sumatera – Head of Agriculture Service Tapsel stated no more death birds found after last bird flu outbreak in six villages of Kecamatan Batang Angkola, Kabupaten Tapanuli Selatan.

Agriculture service has taken appropriate measures to prevent further spreading of the disease, such as disinfection of affected and border area, also vaccination to survived chickens. Prohibition of free rearing chickens is also applied.

Bird flu virus attacked several villages in Kecamatan Batang Angkola, Kabupaten Tapsel last month.

On October 23rd, about 500 chickens died in Desa Pintu Padang I. In two days after, about 250 chickens died in Desa Pintu Padang II. Since then, sudden death in chickens was continuing in other villages; Desa Pintu Padang III, Desa Pintu Padang IV, Desa Pasar Lama Sigalangan, Desa Sorik, Desa Sori Madingin Lama and Desa Sitampa/Simatoras. By Monday (2/11), suddenly died chickens count reached 2,609 in Kecamatan Batang Angkola.

Health Service of Tapsel conducted anticipation and preventive measures by public socialization, and disinfection to infected villages. High-risk villages that are located next to infected villages, Desa Tolang, Sipange and Sialang, were also disinfected.

Disinfection was done continuously since October 23rd until no more dead chickens found.

Of 2,609 dead chickens belong to 200 households. Vaccination is ongoing to survived chickens.

Meanwhile, to prevention further spreading to other areas, government official of Kabupaten Tapsel, has directed twelve districts of Kabupaten Tapsel to be aware and to maintain farm biosecurity.

Source: Indonesia local newspaper, http://metrosiantar.com/Metro_Tabagsel/Tidak_Lagi_Ditemukan_Ayam_Mati_Mendadak_di_Batang_Angkota
 

JPD

Inactive
(It has to be higher)

CDC Estimate of US H1N1 Pediatric Deaths Raised to 540

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11120901/CDC_540_Ped_Deaths.html

At today's press conference, the CDC raised the estimate of pediatric deaths to 540, which is markedly higher than the 129 lab confirmed cases listed in last Friday's weekly report. Adjustments were made for false negative test results as well as a ratio between hospitalizations and deaths. The estimates also indicated there have been 8 million pediatric infections and 3600 hospitalizations.

These numbers only begin to reflect the severity in children because flu season deaths are historically focused between December and May, so marked increase are expected.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine Dead Increase to 239 - Still No Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11120902/Ukraine_239.html

1,253,558 Influenza/ARI

65.615 Hospitalizations

239 Deaths

The above numbers are from the latest update from the Ukraine Ministry of Health. The number of deaths increased 26 to 239, so 50 new deaths have been reported in the past 2 days. Although the virus continues to spread (only 5 of the 27 reporting areas have not topped the epidemic threshold) many of the deaths are still being reported from the hard hit areas in western Ukraine(see map). However, the biggest jump in cases was 6.096 in Kiev to 89,339.

The steady increase in the high level of deaths continues to raise concerns about genetic changes in the H1N1. In this morning's press conference the WHO discussed the need for prompt treatment with Tamiflu, but did not address genetic changes in Ukraine. Only general statements on the stability of the H1N1 were made in response to questions on genetic changes in Ukraine. Today's conference is a week after the last comments on the Ukraine H1N1 sequences which indicated that there were no large changes, but an update would be forthcoming in a "few days". It has now been over a week and no updates on genetic changes have been forthcoming.

The release of the sequences from Ukraine is long overdue.
 

JPD

Inactive
Thailand's North alerted of bird flu outbreak

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/12/content_12443785.htm

BANGKOK, Nov. 12 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's North has alerted of the bird flu outbreak after almost 100 poultries died recently in a northern province of Nan.

As Thailand's North is now experiencing the winter, during Oct.7 to Nov. 5 some 79 poultries died in six districts of Nan province, a senior official at Nan's livestock department said Thursday, Thai News Agency reported.

The department collected some examples of the dead poultries and sent them to a nearby province of Lam-pang, where a regional office of the National Institute of Animal Health, is located, to examine, the official said.

It will take about two weeks to know if the dead poultries were affected with the bird flu or A/H1N1 influenza, the official said.
 

JPD

Inactive
Czechs Find LPAI in Wild Duck

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/18916/czechs-find-lpai-in-wild-duck

CZECH REPUBLIC - The veterinary authorities have reported finding H5N3 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in a wild duck.

On 6 November, the Czech veterinary authority sent an Immediate Notification to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

It reported the finding the previous day of sub-clinical LPAI in one bird in a flock of 280 mallard ducks reared for hunting in Trebin in the state of Jihoceský in the south of the country.

The remaining birds in the flock were destroyed.

The presence of the H5N3 sub-type of the virus has been confirmed.

A Follow up Report dated 13 November indicates no further outbreaks in the meantime.
 

JPD

Inactive
Fragile Care Worsened Swine Flu in Ukraine

http://news.google.com/news/search?...as_nsrc=&as_nloc=&geo=&as_author=&as_occt=any

LVIV, Ukraine — When patients began arriving in Vyacheslav Bonder’s intensive care unit two weeks ago, their lungs so saturated with blood that they could barely gasp, the only thing he could compare it to was a field hospital in wartime. As soon as he hooked one patient up to a ventilator, a second and third would appear in the doorway.

Ukraine's prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, talked to a mother and her child during a visit to a hospital in Chernivtsi on Nov. 5 amid an outbreak of swine flu.
Enlarge This Image
James Hill for The New York Times

Doctors and nurses at the Regional Pulmonary Center in Lviv, Ukraine, tended to swine flu patients in the intensive care unit.

By that time, hospitals were clearing wards to make room for a wave of pneumonia cases, and people were crowding into drugstores to buy whatever they could get their hands on. Rumors were circulating that the government had ordered the city aerially sprayed with chemicals, to cure Lviv (pronounced luh-VEEVE) of disease or, in a grimmer version, to exterminate its carriers.

The panic lifted almost as quickly as it had arrived, and the World Health Organization announced Friday that the swine flu illnesses and deaths so far in Ukraine — 265 fatalities nationwide, with 87 in the Lviv region — were statistically no worse than those in other countries. But what happened here has drawn rapt attention from experts bracing for the epidemic to hit Europe, and especially the fragile health care systems of countries of the former Soviet Union.

Early findings are that serious cases mounted because the sick avoided hospitalization until their illness was dangerously advanced, stockpiles of Tamiflu were locked in centralized locations and the supply of ventilators fell short, said David Mercer, of the World Health Organization’s European regional office.

“It’s not like this caught us by surprise; we’ve known for months that this was coming,” said Dr. Mercer, who heads the office’s communicable disease unit. “We’ve been working very hard on plans, but sometimes the battle plan doesn’t survive the first contact with the enemy. We’ve had to change a lot of things on the fly.”

With the worst of the health care crisis here past, many in Ukraine’s western provinces are trying to puzzle out what led to it. Doctors blame the news media and politicians for spreading fear and misinformation. The mayors of Ternopyl and Lviv, which reported their first deaths from atypical pneumonia on Oct. 12 and 19, have complained that the federal epidemiological service refused to act without laboratory confirmation that the virus was present, delaying serious measures by nearly two weeks.

Others point to more remote causes, among them the desperate poverty of Ukraine’s health care system 20 years after the Soviet Union collapsed.

In Lviv, senior doctors earn a monthly salary of 1,500 hryvnas, approximately $184, pay so low that many physicians leave their practices to work as home health aides in Western Europe. Though health care is officially free, patients typically pay a stream of cash bribes for services as large as X-rays and as small as blood tests or linen changes.

Ukrainians rely heavily on home remedies, and that is what they did for the third and fourth weeks of October, resorting to garlic and lemons and waiting so long to check into hospitals that by the time they did, many were beyond treatment.

“Medicine is underdeveloped in Ukraine, and people don’t believe in it — it’s a vicious circle,” said Oleh Berezuk, a physician who heads the mayor’s administration in Lviv. “In a mature country, if you get sick you will not say, ‘Nobody can help me.’ ”

Now, the doctors at Lviv’s main pulmonological hospital have the shaky good humor of people who have come through a crisis, though portions of their hospital are clammy and unlighted (“to scare the viruses,” one doctor joked), and some of their breathing equipment dates from Soviet times.

Two weeks ago, though, doctors here thought they were looking at a medical mystery: the deaths of healthy young people — not the drunks or addicts they usually see — with lungs so inflamed that they resembled liver. Dr. Bonder recalls the numb realization that his ordinary protocol for treating pneumonia was having no impact at all.

“You would come in to work and the next time you looked at your watch it was midnight,” said Dr. Bonder, who heads the intensive care unit. “You didn’t even think what could happen next.”

Nurses and doctors were falling ill at an alarming rate, in part because of shortages of gloves and disinfectant. Irina Mykychak, the assistant director of Lviv’s regional medical department, said around 3,500 medical professionals fell ill, of whom 300 were hospitalized and 4 died.

When they did suspect H1N1, physicians were stuck in a Catch-22. Though the government had stockpiled Tamiflu in preparation for an outbreak they expected later in the year, the drug was available only at the region’s single infectious disease station — and only with proof that a patient had H1N1. Obtaining proof was a three-to-four-day process that required that samples be sent to Kiev, said Lyubomir Rak, the hospital’s director.

Nadia Rudnitskaya, chief of pulmonology, was carefully putting the pieces together. On Oct. 27, she examined the body of a 32-year-old man — the latest in a series of four deaths from four parts of western Ukraine that, as she put it, “shouldn’t have happened.” Dr. Rudnitskaya gathered her samples together and appealed urgently to Kiev.

Right then the logjam broke: The next day the governor ordered a quarantine and released the emergency stockpile of Tamiflu to clinics and hospitals. A day after that, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko announced on television that the virus had “reached epidemic threshold,” and all of Ukraine was talking about H1N1.

“It was a riddle,” Dr. Rudnitskaya said. “There was an answer.”

For some, it came too late. Marta and Nazar Martin insisted that their mother, Galina, 43, check into a hospital on Oct. 23, after her cough worsened into shallow, labored panting. A dentist, she had been treating herself with intravenous antibiotics and flu medications, as she had always done before.

“No one knew there was an epidemic,” said Marta, 18. “Nothing was said, not at work, not on television.”

The hospital offered no answers either. Doctors first prescribed antibiotics for bronchitis, then punctured Ms. Martin’s spinal column to test for meningitis and encephalitis, then gave her an M.R.I. to rule out a brain tumor. With every new prescription, her children scraped up the money and set off to find a pharmacy where it was available, Marta said.

“A poor person would just die,” she said. “They will not start a medication until you pay for it.”

On Oct. 29, when information about H1N1 flooded the region, doctors and nurses showed up wearing masks for the first time, Nazar said. He watched incredulously; his mother had already declined so much that she was “half a corpse,” he said. After she died, the next day, samples from her body were sent to be tested for swine flu.

Her children estimate they paid 35,000 hryvna, or about $4,300, in cash payments to nurses and doctors during the week she spent in the hospital. The more they hear about swine flu, the angrier they get.

“Why didn’t they take measures before then?” said Nazar Martin, 19. “I’m interested in knowing what they were thinking. They took this seriously only when people began to die, when the death statistics began to rise. Where were they before then?”

“It’s on their conscience,” he said, of the medical authorities. “They should have done something to prevent it.”
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine Dead Increase to 299 - Still No Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11150903/Ukraine_299.html

1,364,939 Influenza/ARI

75,862 Hospitalized

299 Dead

The above numbers represent the latest update for the Ukraine Ministry of Health. Once again the number of dead increased by 17, but weekend numbers tend to be lower than weekday reports. The 299 dead are almost double the 155 reported week ago. The increased number of dead includes those from locations in central and eastern Ukraine. Last Sunday 13 of the 27 reporting regions had not exceeded the epidemic threshold, but today only 5 regions remained below the threshold (see map).

There has been more recent media coverage which have suggested that the high number of fatal cases was linked to late treatment or a lack of Tamiflu. However, at least 6 of the fatalities were healthcare workers and most of the reported deaths were after the warning was issued and schools were closed down, suggesting that many, if not most cases, were not due to late treatment. The initial WHO report indicated the time between disease onset and hospitalization was 5-7 days, but the more recent report from Ukraine cited a 3-7 day lag, which again suggested that many die in spite of awareness, modest time differentials between symptoms and hospitalization, and appropriate treatment.

Moreover, 90 of the initial cases were describe as having a hemorrhagic component, which again raises concerns about small genetic changes, especially in the receptor binding domain. Answers to questions about such changes have been evasive, and the sequences have not been released by Mill Hill.

The sequence silence remains deafening, and erodes public confidence in agencies controlling these samples and sequences.
 

JPD

Inactive
WHO Evades Ukraine Sequence Questions at News Conference

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11150902/Ukraine_WHO_Evades.html

Phil Serafino, Bloomberg: Dr Shindo........I have a second question also which may not be your area of expertise but have you heard anything about the mutation of the virus or has it changed at all - are we looking at anything different than a few months ago.

Dr Shindo: Well, I can answer that question first. The virus is quite stable. It hasn't changed........

Joseph: This is Joseph from Kuala Lumpur - I am from the Sun Media......I just want to ask whether or not any slight mutation even a drift variant has been noticed so far.

Dr Shindo: Amazingly this virus is very stable and part of the reason, virologists (are saying) is because of the lack of pre-existing immunity in population so that virus doesn't have to mutate to escape from people's immunity. So it's quite stable.

The above comments are from the WHO update on Thursday, announcing new recommendations on the use of anti-virals to treat pandemic H1N1. The two questions above are by reporters who were looking for comment on small changes in H1N1 in general, and Ukraine sequences in particular. A week earlier Keiji Fukuda made some general comments about the sequences, noting that final analysis would "probably take a couple of days" but in general there were no "big mutations". However, "big mutations" just refers to reassortment, and there have been no examples of big mutations due to reassortment in any recent sequences. All sequences reported thus far have the same original constellation of flu genes, one human, PB1; two avian (PA and PB2); and seven swine (North Americana and Eurasian).

The reporters were asking about "small" mutations, such as drift mutations, or those affecting the receptor binding domain. Sequence changes in the receptor binding domain are already published. One position (225) is of interest because it was associated with the spread and dominance of amantadine resistance (S31N) in seasonal H3N2. That particular change, D225N, has been reported in two pandemic H1N1 sequences from New York, as well as two recent sequences from Sau Paulo, both of which were from necropsy tissue from fatal H1N1 cases. Similarly, the same position changed during the 1918 pandemic to D225G. That change has also been reported from the lungs of two other patients who dies in Sau Paulo. Moreover, a third change at that position (D225E) was seen in the Tamiflu resistant sequence identified in Hong Kong from a San Francisco traveler who had not been treated with Tamiflu. That polymorphism is widespread and frequently reported in patients from Spain. Thus, the questions on small changes in sequences were focused on specific single nucleotide changes, but the answers to the questions were just general comments on the stability of the virus and did not address specific changes in the Ukraine sequences.

The failure of WHO to release the Mill Hill sequences, or to even comment on the presence or absence of such specific changes, raises questions. The delay in release of data or comments has led to wild speculation at conspiracy web sites, which are widely carried over the internet, creating significant confusion among those readers, as well as the general public concerned about the excessive and continuing deaths in Ukraine (see map). These concerns have been heightened by accelerating numbers of H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths throughout the northern hemisphere,

Non-responsive answers on the general stability of the H1N1 will not reduce these concerns.

Release of the Ukraine sequences is long overdue.
 

JPD

Inactive
H1N1 "super flu" plague in Ukraine spark concern, conspiracy theories about origins

http://www.naturalnews.com/027503_Ukraine_super_flu.html

(NaturalNews) Here's what we know with some degree of certainty about the H1N1 virus in Ukraine right now: nearly 300 people have died from the viral strain, and over 65,000 people have been hospitalized (the actual numbers are increasing by the hour). The virus appears to be either a highly aggressive mutation of the globally-circulating H1N1 strain, or a combination of three different influenza strains now circulating in Ukraine. Some observers suspect this new "super flu" might be labeled viral hemorrhagic pneumonia (meaning it destroys lung tissue until your lungs bleed so much that you drown in your own fluid), but that has not been confirmed by any official sources we're aware of.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has issued emergency quarantine orders for nine of the country's regions and ordered the deployment of mobile military hospitals. He announced that the nation had been simultaneously hit with two different seasonal flu strains plus H1N1 -- and then hinted that all three might have recombined into the deadly new Ukrainian super flu.

In his own words, as reported by Daily Mail, "Unlike similar epidemics in other countries, three causes of serious viral infections came together simultaneously in Ukraine: two seasonal flus and the Californian flu. Virologists conclude that this combination of infections may produce an even more aggressive new virus as a result of mutation."

On November 6, Ukraine's Deputy Health Minister Zinovy Mytnyk announced that over 600,000 citizens had already caught the new flu. British scientists are now conducting tests on the new viral strain to find out why it appears to be so deadly (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...).

The mainstream media is blaming Ukraine's poor health care system for the relatively high rates of hospitalization and death (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/14/w...), but they refuse to mention (yet again) the vitamin D deficiency found across this population living at high latitude in the winter, where sunlight is relatively scarce.

Here's a useful blog for staying up to date on the Ukrainian plague:
http://ukraineplague.blogspot.com/

What we don't know
Now here's what we don't know about the Ukraine outbreak:

What is the actual genetic composition of this mutated strain?

Scientists have not released any meaningful news about the genetic sequence of the Ukraine strain. For the moment, the WHO is somewhat quiet on the matter. The last WHO update was from November 3 (and the situation has become considerably worse since). (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_...).

Was this viral strain released as a bioweapon?

There are numerous reports circulating widely across the 'net that cite aerial spraying across Kiev in the days before the new "super flu" outbreak. People are speculating that this was a bioweapon attack intentionally unleashed upon the Ukrainian population. So far, NaturalNews can find no credible information supporting this theory, but it remains a possibility to be researched further.

Does Baxter Pharmaceuticals have anything to do with the outbreak?

You may recall that earlier this year, Baxter shipped live avian flu viral material to labs in 18 countries, including one in the Ukraine. (http://www.naturalnews.com/025760.html) There is suspicion that Baxter could be tied to a planned outbreak of a weaponized virus as a population control bioweapon of some sort, but NaturalNews has not been unable to find any credible information sources supporting this theory. Lacking any better leads on this subject, as far as we can tell right now this remains an unproven conspiracy theory. (If anyone has more credible info on this, please send it our way for review.)

It is plausible that Baxter had something to do with this, but we just don't have any convincing evidence to back it up at this point.

H1N1 vaccines likely offer little protect against the Ukraine super flu
People receiving H1N1 vaccine shots right now need to know that currently-available H1N1 vaccine shots may offer no protection whatsoever against the "Ukraine Strain." That's because once the virus mutates, changing it genetic structure, it can instantly render all existing vaccines obsolete.

Depending on the degree of genetic changes, there is a possibility that some level of immunity may be conferred to people who already have H1N1 antibodies, but here's the dirty little secret the vaccine industry doesn't want you to know: People who built their own natural immunity to H1N1 through exposure rather than vaccines have a much greater likelihood of exhibiting natural immunity to genetic variations of H1N1. In other words, people who overcame H1N1 exposure on their own, without being vaccinated, have a far stronger defense against H1N1 variations that might appear.

This is yet another reason why flu vaccines are so dangerous: The deny your immune system the important opportunity to exercise its own adaptive defenses and build stronger protections against future infections.

One possible scenario that could unfold with all this is that the Ukraine strain might spread around the world, wiping out those who got vaccinated against H1N1 because their immune systems suffer from a suppressed ability to naturally generate antibodies to a new strain. Meanwhile, drug companies will try to scramble and create a whole new batch of "super flu" vaccines, but they're always too little, too late. Theoretically, millions of people could die around the world while waiting in line for yet another vaccine shot.

All they really need is vitamin D3, some herbal anti-virals, a healthy diet and plenty of rest, but no one is telling them that.

Even the Ukraine super flu is no match for a healthy immune system. Remember: Out of 65,000+ hospitalizations, fewer than 300 people have died so far. That's still a very low mortality rate, even if the spread of the viral infection seems aggressive.

WHO cranking up anti-viral drug push
Meanwhile, the WHO is upping its push for anti-viral drugs, saying that drugs like Tamiflu should now be used earlier on swine flu victims (http://www.google.com/hostednews/af...).

They still won't recommend anti-viral herbs, foods, supplements or natural remedies, of course. The WHO remains a faithful pusher of Big Pharma's profit agenda, even while denying the People of the world the truth about how they can save their own lives with anti-viral natural remedies. To both the WHO and CDC, the swine flu pandemic has always been about pushing a pharmaceutical agenda at the expense of public health.

Had the public been informed about vitamin D and natural anti-virals like Lomatium, many lives could have already been saved. Instead, the drug pushers at the CDC and WHO have tens of millions of people standing in line waiting for vaccines instead of consuming natural supplements and remedies that could help protect them from influenza.

The profit agenda forces us to wonder: With the current H1N1 strain fizzling out -- and yet billions of dollars worth of vaccines still needing to be sold -- could the Ukraine strain have been engineered to scare up more demand and more sales of vaccines and anti-virals?

That's a question that all thinking people need to be asking right now. But we also need to be careful in assessing what's true here. Reading the postings about this on the 'net, I've noticed way too many people leaping to assumptions about what's happening in the Ukraine without any real evidence to back that up. The reports about Joseph Moshe, in particular, appear to be a complete hoax.

While it's possible this was an engineered bioweapon of some sort, it's not enough to just assume that's true and then declare it to be so. More evidence is needed before NaturalNews would back a theory like that.

We'll keep you posted on what we find. New documents tend to come our way after we post the first story on a subject like this, often leading to a follow-up story that benefits from more information.
 

JPD

Inactive
Bird flu anticipation, poultry destroyed

http://www.beritajakarta.com/2008/en/newsview.aspx?idwil=0&id=13002

BERITAJAKARTA.COM — 11/16/2009 7:21:27 PM

The East Jakarta Administration is seriously anticipating bird flu spread on its areas. One of the ways is destroying 3,752 poultries to stop the bird flu spread.


Based on East Jakarta Sub-Dept. of Animal Husbandry and Fishery data, those 3,752 poultries comprise 1,537 chickens, 390 ducks, and 1,825 pigeons. The personnel found the highest number of poultry in Cipayung sub-district by 864 poultries. The next are in Pulogadung by 817 poultries, Makasar 451 poultries, Cakung 430 poultries, Kramatjati 325 poultries, Ciracas 291 poultries, Pasarrebo 319 poultries, Jatinegara 189 poultries, Durensawit 85 poultries, and Matraman 81 poultries.


Those poultries have been slaughtered and returned to the owners, while the cages have been already burned.


Adnan Ahmad for the agency said destroying the poultries is the implementation of Bylaw No 4/2007 about Poultry Husbandry Control in Jakarta. Poultries should be destroyed are chickens, ducks, and pigeons.


Based on the regulation, the citizens are not allowed keeping poultries in residential areas especially if the poultries have certificate to be kept. It has been socialized many times. “We hoped the society will understand this effort,” he said Monday (11/16).


He suggested the head of community and neighbor unit to socialize this regulation to the society. “I think the society have to understand about bird flu and its impact that can kill people easily. That is why keeping poultries in residential areas is banned,” he added.


Meanwhile, Sabdo Kurnianto for East Jakarta Section of Control and Supervision added the society should support the personnel destroying the poultries or at least obeying the regulation. “The residence must be free from poultries. We hope the society will report to us after finding poultries are kept in residence,” he stated.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine Dead Increase to 315 - Still No Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11160903/Ukraine_315.html

1,400,999 Influenza/ARI

78,326 Hospitalized

315 Dead

The above totals are from today's report from the Ukraine Ministry of Health. The increase of 16 fatalities was largely in areas with newer infections and now only 1 of the 27 regions, Luhansk, has not reported a death (see map). The largest jump in cases was in Kiev, with an increase of 4,964 cases to 104,154. The climb in patients who have been hospitalized to 78,326 suggests patients are being hospitalized and treated, but the number of deaths continue to increase at a rate of 16-26 per day.

The steady increase in the number of fatalities continues to cause concerns of small genetic changes. WHO has not directly answered questions at news conferences, and the role of single nucleotide chnages changes in the high number of hemorrhagic fatalities remains unclear.

Poland is now also reporting fatalities, although not at the level of Ukraine. However, there have been a significant number of fatalities in Belarus, raising concerns of spread.

Release of the Ukraine sequences is long overdue.
 

JPD

Inactive
Record Number of Lab Confirmed H1N1 Pediatric Deaths in US

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11160902/Pediatric_Death_Record.html

Thirty-five influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to CDC during week 44 (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas [2], California [8], Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan [2], Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio [2], Oklahoma [3], Tennessee [2], Texas [6], Utah, Virginia, and Washington). Twenty-six of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, eight were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype is undetermined, and one was associated with an influenza B virus infection. These deaths occurred between March 15 and November 7, 2009

The above comments from the latest CDC weekly report (week 44) describe a record number of pediatric deaths. This release follows the CDC announcement that the earlier report of 129 H1N1 deaths is an underestimate and the true number of deaths is closer to 540, due to false negatives and a lack of testing, even though reporting of pediatric flu deaths is mandatory. Prior to the H1N1 outbreak the reporting of mandatory cases had not exceeded 100 for any season. Last season that record was broken, due largely to the wave of H1N1 fatalities that began in late spring and extended through the summer. The latest table indicates that there were 82 swine H1N1 deaths prior to August 30, 2009. Thus, the number of H1N1 deaths after the peak of seasonal flu activity last season was greater than the 2006-2007 season and almost as high as the 2007-2008 season. However, the tally for pediatric deaths lags, and the newly reported deaths included two new H1N1 fatalities from last season, so eventually the recorded swine flu deaths may exceed the seasonal flu tally for 2007-2008.

Media reports have described dozens of pediatric fatalities that have not yet been entered, so the number of cases in the past several weeks will continue to climb as these fatalities are added. The current record of 127 deaths for last season will be broken in the next report because there are already 117 cases recorded for this season, and recent reports were well above the 10 case differential between this season and last.

Thus, the record for pediatric fatalities will be broken by every report going forward and the tradition date for large increases in flu deaths for this season has been reached.

The comparison of pediatric deaths season to season is more valid than media comparisons of lab confirmed deaths for swine H1N1 with estimates for seasonal flu, which are extrapolated from pneumonia deaths and other causes of death. These seasonal flu numbers are largely based on deaths of those over 65 (>90%), while swine flu deaths are predominantly cases below 65 (>90%).

Thus, the comparison of lab confirmed pediatric deaths clearly demonstrates the increased virulence which is on the rise. One or more additional waves of H1N1 are expected in early 2010, as conditions favor the spread of H1N1, which has already been previewed by the recent strong uptick in hospitalizations and deaths reported in the past few weeks across the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the record number of pediatric deaths reported in week 44 clearly demonstrates the increased virulence of pandemic H1N1, and the number of cases per week as well as the number of fatalities per season will continue to set new records, as the lab confirmed fatalities for H1N1 accelerate.
 

JPD

Inactive
Cluster of Tamiflu Resistance Near Edinburgh Scotland

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11160901/H274Y_Scotland_Cluster.html

One patient in the Lothians and another believed to be from Fife failed to respond to Tamiflu, one of the only treatments for the H1N1 virus.

Doctors around the world have seen a handful of cases where the virus has mutated to develop resistance to the drug.

NHS Lothian confirmed it has seen one patient with Tamiflu-resistant swine flu.

A spokesman for the Scottish Government said: "We are aware of Tamiflu resistance in two Scottish H1N1 patients.

"We have asked Health Protection Scotland to monitor the situation closely."

The above comments describe two patients in Scotland north of Edinburgh (see map) who were found to have Tamiflu resistant (H274Y) swine H1N1 after failing to respond to treatment. Initial reports do not describe the patients as being immune-suppressed or on prophylactic Tamiflu. Instead the cases appear to be independent but reported at the same time from the same area, raising concerns that swine H1N1 with H274Y is transmitting.

Prior reports of H274Y described cases that were not linked to Tamiflu usage, but were sporadic. The patients in Scotland, however, appear to come from the same geographic region and are being reported at the same time.

Currently the number of severe H1N1 cases and deaths is rising throughout the northern hemisphere, including Scotland, raising concern that the rise is due in part to H274Y.

More information on these two cases, as well as the release of the resistant sequences, would be useful.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine H1N1 Sequence Changes Raise Concerns

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11170901/Ukraine_SNPs.html

Preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus based on investigations of samples taken from patients in Ukraine. Analyses are being performed by two WHO influenza collaborating centres as part of the global influenza surveillance network.
Preliminary genetic sequencing shows that the virus is similar to the virus used for production of the pandemic influenza vaccine, reconfirming the vaccine's efficacy at this time.

A total of 34 samples were analysed independently by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK, and the WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza in Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

The above WHO comments from the latest update on sequences from isolates from Ukraine (see map) raised additional concerns. Earlier comments indicated that there were no "large changes", which simply meant that there was no significant reassortment with other influenza viruses, such as seasonal flu, and the constellation of genes was unchanged (5 swine, 1 human, and 2 avian).

However, the comments did not rule out small changes, such as receptor binding domain changes seen in other swine H1N1 isolates such as D225E, D225N, and D225G. The latter two changes were of concern because they had recently been isolated from Sao Paulo fatal cases, and three of the four isolates with D225N or D225G were found in lung samples, which were of conern because of reports of total destruction of lungs in Ukraine..

The recent comments from WHO stating that sequences are "similar" to other sequences does not rule out receptor binding domain changes, and such changes were not denied, as was done previously with H5N1 sequences from patients in Pakistan, which again raises concerns that the sequences from Ukraine do have receptor binding domain changes.

Such changes could affect transmission or tropism and could also affect the vaccine reactivity. The involvement of the CDC in Atlanta, as well as Mill Hill in London suggests the isolates were tested against the current vaccine, which would again suggest that there were sequence differences, but that the differences did not significantly reduce titers against reference anti-sera.

However, the involvement of the CDC would also raise questions about antiviral resistance which would be addressed in biological testing, which would be more sensitive that sequencing, which would be more prone to miss minor populations. The antiviral concerns have been also increased, due in part to the recent announcement of a cluster of H274Y patients in Scotland.

It has now been over two weeks since samples were sent to WHO collaborative center(s) and full sequences have been generated. The absence of any statement on the presence or absence of receptor binding domain changes continues to raise concerns that such changes are present in the Ukraine sequences and these sequences affect transmission or tropism.

Release of the sequences is long overdue and such a release would end speculation about the significance of such changes.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine flu death toll goes up - British labs test to
ID flu as H1N1, Spanish flu, or something else

http://www.examiner.com/x-29228-LA-...-ID-flu-as-H1N1-Spanish-flu-or-something-else

In the Ukraine, a strain of the flu has infected 1.4 million people. The death toll, according to the Ukraine Health Ministry, is at 315 people as of November 16, 2009. The World Bank Database gives the estimated population for the Ukraine as a little over 46 million. While the percentages do not appear high, the reported symptoms and contagion patterns of this flu are of concern to some doctors. The virus is being tested at the Medical Research Council laboratories, in Britain.

Symptoms of the Ukrainian flu

"We don't believe it's H1N1 swine flu. Neither do we know what kind of pneumonia it is," states Ukrainian emergency physician Myron Borysevych. The Daily Mail states that doctors are likening this strain of the flu to the Spanish flu, which included internal hemorrhage and edema in the lungs.

World Health Organization Comments about Ukrainian flu

Last week, the World Health Organization team working in the Ukraine stated that there would be a second wave of the epidemic. This prediction appears to be coming true. The Ukraine Health Ministry reports 16 new deaths in the past day alone.

Testing of the Ukraine flu virus is underway

Samples of the Ukraine flu virus were provided to a British lab, for testing to conclusively subtype the virus. Learning whether the virus is a mutated form of the H1N1 swine flu, or an entirely new type of flu virus, will help health officials and members of the public take necessary measures for protection from this deadly disease.
 

JPD

Inactive
Thailand: 1,500 Rapid Response Units On Bird Flu Watch Standby

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=455574

BANGKOK, Nov 16 (Bernama) -- Thailand's Minister of Public Health Witthaya Kaewparadai on Monday instructed provincial health chiefs to prepare 1,500 local rapid response units to monitor the bird flu situation following the death of 1,000 ducks in the central province of Suphan Buri in Thailand.

Kaewparadai made these remarks while expressing his amid concern of the re-emergence of bird flu outbreaks.

Although 1,000 ducks were found dead of unknown causes in Suan Taeng sub-district of the Suphan Buri provincial seat on Friday, he said: "Government veterinary workers destroyed the rest of the ducks in the flock to prevent a possible outbreak of influenza and are now awaiting for laboratory test results from Kasetsart University."

Witthaya said he has instructed provincial health officials nationwide to monitor bird flu in the human population and to keep publicising bird flu prevention advice to local residents, while urging hospitals to separate patients with flu-like symptoms from other patients.

The minister said that provincial health officials have been assigned to standby with their rapid response units.

If any suspected patients are found, the rapid response unit, together with animal husbandry officials will immediately move to inspect and control the spread of the disease wherever the outbreak.

Public Health Ministry Deputy Permanent-Secretary Dr Paichit Varachit said that although Thailand has had no report of new patients contracting bird flu for about three years, the ministry has closely monitored the situation.

All hospitals have been informed to pay attention to all patients with flu-like symptoms and report the data to the Bureau of Epidemiology on a daily basis.

Director-General Dr Manit Theeratantikanont of the Disease Control Department said bird flu patients from eight districts in lower northern and central provinces must be monitored closely.

Dr Manit also urged local residents to help keep close watch on the situation and inform concerned officials or health volunteers if any wildfowl or domestic fowl is found dead from unknown reason.
 

JPD

Inactive
Czech Republic - Avian flu

http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/171109/czech_republic___avian_flu.aspx

Avian flu is making a comeback in Europe as well as Asia, yet gets none of the attention that was give to the swine flue molehill that was made into a mountain.

The veterinary authorities have reported finding H5N3 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in a wild duck.

On 6 November, the Czech veterinary authority sent an Immediate Notification to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

It reported the finding the previous day of sub-clinical LPAI in one bird in a flock of 280 mallard ducks reared for hunting in Trebin in the state of Jihoceský in the south of the country.

The remaining birds in the flock were destroyed.

The presence of the H5N3 sub-type of the virus has been confirmed.

A Follow up Report dated 13 November indicates no further outbreaks in the meantime.
 

JPD

Inactive
This may or may not be credible, we shall see:

Ukraine; Virus Is Mixture Of H1N1 And Parainfluenza, Causes Cardiopulmonary Failure; Indicates BioWeapon

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2009/11/18/ukraine-virus-is-mixture-of-h1n1-and-par

Professor Victor Bachinsky, PhD., is a coroner in the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine. He provides evidence which indicates that parainfluenza mixed with the H1N1 virus, not pneumonic plague, has caused so much illness in Ukraine. Yet more strains of influenza which have combined, a strong indication that we are dealing with a laboratory developed bio-weapon. [Translated from Russian]

(Photo: Victor Bachynsky)

Based on autopsies, we have come to the conclusion: it’s not pneumonia, but cardiopulmonary insufficiency and cardiogenic shock … The virus enters directly into the lungs, there is bleeding … Antibiotics should not be used …

Why do we have such a high mortality rate in the country? Because people are going to pharmacies to get medicine instead of going to their doctors to be treated … No it is not pneumonic plague. It’s all nonsense … antibiotics do not help … Those with strong immune systems will survive. People with weak immune systems will succumb to the illness … Face Masks provide 30% extra protection. Wearing glasses gives an additional 10% protection, that is 40%, because the virus penetrates the mucose membranes.

The Head of the Chernivtsi regional forensic bureau, Professor Victor Bachinsky PhD, makes a strong statement: all the victims of the virus in Bukovina (22 persons aged 20 to 40 years) died not from bilateral (double) pneumonia, as previously thought, but as a result of viral distress syndrome, i.e. the total destruction of the lungs. We caught up with Professor Bachinsky, to find out how he came to this conclusion, and how people can protect themselves from this disease.

Professor, you said earlier that the virus, from which many people have died – is a mixture of types of parainfluenza and influenza A/H1N1. How do you cure this disease?

The question of how to treat this virus is not up to me. I am a pathologist. I just found out what it is and made an exact diagnosis. It is important to provide the correct treatment based on diagnosis.

There are strict protocols and standards of treatment in medicine. If a doctor treats a patient who dies, their relatives can make a complaint that they were not treated properly (misdiagnosed).The Ministry of Health has set the protocols and standards of treatment for each diagnosis. If diagnosed correctly, the treatment should be correct …

In the Chernivtsi region 18 people have died. We studied all the history and evidence from this disease, preclinical, clinical, resuscitation. When we perform an autopsy organs and tissues have histological studies (cell analysis) and we concluded that it was not pneumonia, and has no relation to pneumonia whatsoever.
These results are the foundation to ensure that doctors who treat this disease all over Ukraine, change their tactics and standards of care.

Can this new virus be cured?

It depends on the immune system. If a person’s immune system is strong, they will overcome it. There are people who carry this strain of H1N1 and remain on their feet and don’t even realise they are sick.

Antibiotics definitely should not be taken. Antibiotics are the reason we have such a high mortality and infection rate in this country, because people go to the pharmacy, describe their symptoms to the pharmacist and ask for drugs. They buy antibiotics, take them, this lowers their immune system and as a result they become sick. If prescriptions were required to buy these medications, like in other countries, this would not have happened. It is the ability to buy antibiotics over the counter without a prescription which has done so much harm to the State.

During autopsies, what did the lungs look like? Were they really black, which gave rise to so much talk of pulmonary plague?

No, they are not black … This is not pneumonic plague. It’s all nonsense. Pneumonic plague has a very different morphology. We have, for example, 60 thousand people who became sick and 23 have died. With pulmonary plague, we would now have a mortality rate of 59 thousand …

This is a viral attack that destroys the lungs.

It turns out that not only in Bukovina, but also throughout the Ukraine people did not die from pneumonia, but from this toxic strain?

Yes, It’s not pneumonia! This destruction of the lungs. This strain is very toxic, and if the immune system is weak, there is bleeding in the lungs. In the lungs there is a tiny structure – acinus, which looks like a bunch of grapes. When you breathe, oxygen enters this tiny “bunch of grapes” (pulmonary alveoli). On the surface of the acinus are the capillaries, where red blood cells saturate with oxygen and give blood, which supplies all tissues and organs in the body.

And once the virus enters the lungs – hemorrhaging begins immediately in the acinus. A continuous hemorrhage … It takes several hours. In the blood fibrin is formed, and from it – giolinovaya membrane, resembling a plastic bag. It envelops the acinus, and the person breathes in oxygen, but it is not transferred to the tissues. And people just gasp. There is a cardio-pulmonary insufficiency and cardiogenic shock. People die of cardiogenic shock. And there is no pneumonia. Pneumonia – an inflammation, which is treated with antibiotics. Antibiotics cannot help at any stage. There should be absolutely different treatment.

And how about “Tamiflu” – does it help?

This is not an antibiotic, it is an antiviral drug, which should be applied on the second or third day of the disease. But you can not use Tamiflu as a preventitive, because it is toxic.

What are the best measures to resist the disease? Is it advisable to use a mask, garlic, vitamin C?

The primary method of prevention is a face mask. This give 30% extra protection. If you wear glasses – it is 40%, because the virus enters through the mucous membranes.

It is necessary to improve the human immune system. Not only now, but in general. Garlic, onions, wild rose, viburnum (guelder rose), raspberries, citrus fruit, honey, and other fruits and vegetables – whatever you want. Those with a strong immune system will survive. Those with weaker immune systems will succumb to the disease.

We have a lot of people in Ukraine who like shopping at the open markets. If we can avoid open markets, the less people will be in contact with each other and more lives will be saved.

You have contacted the Health Ministry and advised them to review the standards for treatment of patients. What did they say?

We sent them all our data, the necessary protocols and standards of treatment, our diagnosis. But it is clear that decisions cannot be instantaneous.

And why until now has nobody else known about this disease? What were the leading specialists in the Ministry of Health doing all this time?

Perhaps this is due to the fact that there are scientists who are working on a purely theoretical basis. And there are scientists who have seen the autopsy results. I practice as head of the regional forensic bureau and as a professor. The fact that we have established this diagnosis – it is not just to my credit, and this is not my personal opinion. This is the opinion of specialists, morphologists and doctors in Bukovina. There are five professors in our group – I just head the group.

¤ ¤ ¤ ¤ ¤

Source:
http://www.unian.net/rus/news/news-346721.html [Original article in Russian by Anna Yashchenko]
http://info-wars.org/2009/11/14/par...re-in-ukraine-total-destruction-of-the-lungs/

Via:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16088
 

JPD

Inactive
Ukraine Dead Increase to 328 - Still No Sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11170902/Ukraine_328.html

1,457,564 Influenza/ARI

83,526 Hospitalized

328 Deaths

The above numbers are in the latest update from the Ukraine Health Department and include 13 more deaths. Although the number of deaths has decline slightly from the prior two days, the increase in cases and hospitalizations suggest the decline in deaths may be temporary. The largest increase in cases was again in Kiev (5522 to 109,676) and two other eastern oblast (see map) had daily increases of more than 4000 cases (Dnipropetrovsk and Denetsk). The steady rise in deaths continues to increase concerns over an H1N1 genetic change leading to an increase in lung disease such as those described earlier.

WHO came out with a situation update which provided little specific information beyond earlier reports that the H1N1 did not have large changes. However, the new update did indicate that WHO regional centers in London and Atlanta were still investigating isolates, suggesting there have been sequences changes that are not fully characterized.

Recently released swine H1N1 from other locations have included receptor binding domain changes at position 225 (D225E, D225N, D225G) as well as 226 (Q226R) raising concerns that similar changes in Ukraine cold lead to the high frequency of fatal lung infections (Q226R has been seen previously in human H5N1 as well as H3 isolates from swine, ducks, and seals). The new update did not address receptor binding domain changes or other SNPs that could have significant effects on the pathogenicity of the virus.

Therefore, the release of sequences and comments on receptor binding domain changes would be useful
 

JPD

Inactive
If H1N1 joins with the bird flu, pandemic may be much worse

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/washington-post/2009/11/18/233202/If-H1N1.htm

When swine flu erupted this spring in the southwestern United States and Mexico, it had been 40 years since the last flu pandemic. The outbreak has dispelled any illusion that pandemic influenza belonged to a bygone era, like smallpox, polio or scarlet fever. But we haven't seen how bad things might yet get.

What's the worst-case scenario? It could be a continuing vaccine shortage. It might be a mutation in the swine flu virus that suddenly makes the strain resistant to Tamiflu, as some seasonal flu strains already are. Or it could be that hospital ICUs become so overwhelmed that people who could have been saved die.

These are all unnerving possibilities. Yet many flu specialists say their real nightmare is that swine flu could meet up and swap genetic material — or reassort, as these scientists say — with another, deadlier flu strain, breeding a new virus that is as contagious as but far more savage.

Such a strain is already circulating in Asia and Africa, and it could be ready for a chance encounter with swine flu. It is called bird flu. Unlike swine flu, which is no worse than a seasonal flu bug for most people, bird flu kills more than half of those who contract it: Of 460 confirmed human cases of bird flu, 268 of those people died. Bird flu preys on the young and healthy, ravaging their lungs — reminiscent of the 1918 flu that killed up to 50 million people.

So far, scientists haven't found proof that swine and bird flu will merge and spawn a deadlier virus. But the prospect is so chilling that health officials have been warning about it since earlier this year. Margaret Chan, director general of the World Health Organization, urged public health experts not to take their eyes off H5N1 bird flu even as H1N1 swine flu was sweeping the globe this spring.

“No one can say how this avian virus will behave when pressured by large numbers of people infected with the new H1N1 virus,” she told an assembly of the world's top health officials in May. Separately, she appealed to Asian health ministers: “Do not drop the ball on monitoring H5N1.”

Influenza is a cruel wonder of nature, one of the most promiscuous microbes. Its viruses have a rare gift for swapping genetic material with one another: The genetic material in a flu virus, unlike in nearly all other viruses, is composed of segments that can be individually replaced. If two different strains invade the same cell, they can trade attributes, then dispatch that progeny back into the world. So the WHO and other health agencies are watching closely as swine flu spreads to countries where bird flu is well established, particularly Egypt and Vietnam.

As a correspondent, I tracked bird flu for several years starting in 2004 in nine Asian countries, from jungle villages to squalid urban quarters, run-down hospitals and cutting-edge labs. I discovered how economic, political and cultural realities were conspiring to imperil us. In a single generation, East Asia's surging demand for protein has led to an explosion in poultry farming, and these flocks have become perfect breeding grounds for a pandemic strain. Meanwhile, age-old customs facilitated the virus's spread.

In Thailand, I went to cockfights at makeshift arenas where fans crowded around birds that may be carrying the disease. I visited breeders, witnessing how they cradle the birds, wiping down their bloodied feathers and even sucking mucus from their beaks. At live poultry markets in Indonesia, China and Vietnam, where the air was rank with the odor of chickens and ducks, and the floors slick with their blood, I saw how people and livestock were crammed together, a crucial nexus in the spread of the virus.

Several Asian countries (notably China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam) covered up their bird flu outbreaks, sometimes until it was too late to contain the virus's spread — then later claimed to have cornered the virus. But it keeps coming back, and each time it gets another chance to reassort with another virus.

And now, along comes swine flu. Although its mortality rate is well below 1 percent, there have already been tens of millions of cases worldwide. Is this more-contagious virus the key that might unlock bird flu's terrible full potential? Swine flu is so new that researchers have yet to plumb its secrets. How exactly is it transmitted, how does it attack the body, and why, in very few cases, is it catastrophic? Could it reassort with another flu strain?

Last summer, scientists from the University of Maryland, the Virginia-Maryland Regional College of Veterinary Medicine and the National University of Colombia published the results of their swine flu research on ferrets (ferrets are susceptible to human flu viruses and display some of the same symptoms as people). The study suggested that swine flu is unlikely to reassort with ordinary seasonal strains and instead is more apt to crowd them out. We can only hope that it will be equally chaste when it comes to bird flu.

But another study, also published this summer, showed that bird flu has the ability to reassort with at least some other strains of flu. A team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta confirmed this by infecting ferrets with bird flu and ordinary seasonal flu simultaneously. Testing secretions from the ferrets' noses, researchers found that they carried new flu strains that contained genetic material from both of the parent strains.

We cannot predict the twists and turns of the flu virus, which has repeatedly confounded some of the world's brightest scientists. No one expected bird flu would leap from birds to humans — until it did. Its initial, withering attack on a boy in Hong Kong 12 years ago was like a “visitation from outer space,” according to flu specialist Keiji Fukuda, who investigated the initial occurrences.

He recalled how the Hong Kong outbreak eluded understanding, even as it spread and began resembling the 1918 Spanish flu. “You feel like: 'I don't know what is going to happen. I don't know what is going on. But what is going on is not good, and it reminds me of the worst not-good of the century,'” he said.

Fukuda, now WHO's top flu official, says he remains humbled by the flu's stubborn unpredictability.

Already, the swine flu epidemic has chastened us by revealing the sorry state of our antiquated technology for producing vaccines and the limits of our brittle, under-funded system for emergency medical care. But swine flu is not merely a warning shot. The virus itself could be the catalyst for a new flu — and an even deadlier pandemic.

Sipress, The Washington Post's economics editor, is the author of “The Fatal Strain: On the Trail of Avian Flu and the Coming Pandemic.”
 
Top