PREP 75% Drop in Clothing being Shipped to U.S.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30c89a2e-c620-11dd-a741-000077b07658.html

US clothing slump hits shipments
By Jonathan Birchall in New York

Published: December 9 2008 19:12 | Last updated: December 9 2008 19:12

The slump in US clothing sales since the summer has led to a precipitous drop in the number of overseas factories shipping to the US, import documents show.

Panjiva, a firm that analyses information drawn from shipping manifests filed with US Customs, said the number of global suppliers actively serving the US market fell from 22,099 in July to just 6,262 in October, a decline of more than 70 per cent.

The firm, which has provided data to customers including Kellwood, a leading branded clothing company, and Hudson’s Bay Company, the Canadian retailer, lists as “active” any supplier that has made a shipment into the US over the previous three months.

Josh Green, chief executive of Panjiva, said the numbers “paint a frightening picture of the state of the world’s suppliers”.

Mr Green said the decline contrasted with the picture last year, when he said there was a slight increase in the number of active suppliers over the same three-month period.

Panjiva also said 40 per cent of the suppliers still listed as active had seen year-on-year drops of 75 per cent or more in the volumes they were shipping to the US.

The percentage of active suppliers based in China and Hong Kong has remained steady at about 60 per cent – suggesting that the effects of the slowdown are being felt equally across the global clothing supply chain.

Eric Autor, international trade counsel at the National Retail Federation noted that China had already been seeing some consolidation in the number of its export factories due to rising domestic costs, even before the US economic crisis worsened.

In China, government statistics estimate that at least 67,000 factories across all sectors closed during the first half of the year.

He also argued that the credit crisis could be pushing some big apparel buyers to direct their orders to suppliers that they know well, to reduce risks of problems with fulfilment.

“It may be that the retailers are focusing on those suppliers with whom they’ve had a longer and closer relationship,” he said.

Panjiva’s data reinforce a picture of declining imports at the largest US retail container ports, where volumes are estimated to have fallen 8.5 per cent in November against last year.

The monthly Port Tracker report produced for the NRF by IHS Global Insight said the decline marked the 16th straight month in which incoming container volume at leading US cargo ports had fallen.

In China, government statistics estimate that at least 67,000 factories across all sectors closed during the first half of the year.

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I Think this is as worthy of bold as the above.

MikeD said:

I Think this is as worthy of bold as the above.

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Thanks Mike.

Fisher

Very welcome.

I am in freight transportation. I see the number of trucks out there looking for freight / to the number of freight loads being offered. This scares the hell out of me. There use to be a lot of scrap materials to haul to ports heading to China. Also, alot of finished (if you want to call it that) product, coming out of China, into the ports to haul out.

As of late there has been many 10 / 1 ratios of trucks to loads. I don't like to jump on the band wagon of "teotwawki", but damn getting hard not to.

Thanks Fisher and Mike D. This thread should be getting a whole lot more attention. Global trade is screeching to a halt, and who knows for how long. Two years, five years? The recent news regarding the collapse of the shipping industry is astonishing. The point is, EVERYTHING imported will become more expensive. Electronics, optics, commodities, clothing, etc. However, I do believe there will be a lag time as surplus exports overseas are offloaded even if at a loss. (A small loss now is better than a large loss later.) Which means in the short run, I think we'll continue to see fairly low prices. But when that surplus is gone and the shortages trickle down to the retail level, look for prices to increase, perhaps dramatically. NOW would be a very good time to stock up on QUALITY clothing (especially quality underwear, socks, shoes, boots), optics, and important electronic items that are imported. I give it 6 to 12 months before the pinch is being felt. Think of what is NOT being manufactured in the US right now that you might need later and go with that. Now would be a good time to start thinking about this.

Now is a good time to start buying more clothes even if it's just sweat pants and swaet and tee shirts among other clothing. If you notice, the majority of all clothing comes from oversea's.

This is why my DH and I bought good new boots for him and a "hunting" type parka for me, and insulated mud boots for both of us...for Christmas. In spite of his being laid off, and me not working.

Get what you will NEED now...

Soon it will be: "GOT SOCKS?" or "GOT UNDERPANTS?".

Rucus Sunday said:

Thanks Fisher and Mike D. This thread should be getting a whole lot more attention.

Global trade is screeching to a halt, and who knows for how long. Two years, five years? The recent news regarding the collapse of the shipping industry is astonishing.

The point is, EVERYTHING imported will become more expensive. Electronics, optics, commodities, clothing, etc.

However, I do believe there will be a lag time as surplus exports overseas are offloaded even if at a loss. (A small loss now is better than a large loss later.) Which means in the short run, I think we'll continue to see fairly low prices.

But when that surplus is gone and the shortages trickle down to the retail level, look for prices to increase, perhaps dramatically.

NOW would be a very good time to stock up on QUALITY clothing (especially quality underwear, socks, shoes, boots), optics, and important electronic items that are imported.

I give it 6 to 12 months before the pinch is being felt. Think of what is NOT being manufactured in the US right now that you might need later and go with that. Now would be a good time to start thinking about this.

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what rucus said is true, plus 1000. we don't make hardly anything in the U.S., and when the imported stuff stops coming in, we're going to be SOL.

TIP: at our local fleamarket, there are vendors who sell upper name-brand items, at steep-steep discounts. for instance, 12-count packages of mens socks, for 6 bucks. the same package in a department store will run you 18 to 22 bucks. the only thing wrong with them is that the color pattern in the weave, in the part above your ankle, does not match. the pattern is "off".

I bought elastic to make jeans for the little ones, using our old ones for the material. I've hung onto all our old ones, even ripped up ones. We might be able to wear the ones that are too small now, but the ripped ones can be re-cycled either for toddler jeans or for quilts!
I think some of the family will be getting socks and underwear for Christmas this year! Dollar Tree has infants socks for $1 a pack.
Getting sweat pants is a good idea also. They're comfortable, and allow for differences in weight gain or loss! I have some in the attic that I hung onto, despite my better judgement at the time. I might be glad that I did!
All adult clothing can be cut down to make clothes for the little ones, but underwear and socks are something I can't make! I sure wish it was still yard sale season around here!!!

around here, the salvation army stores have half off all clothing on wednesdays. I've made it a point to go each week, mainly to buy extra winter clothing.
Breezyhill

Dinghy said:

I bought elastic to make jeans for the little ones, using our old ones for the material. I've hung onto all our old ones, even ripped up ones. We might be able to wear the ones that are too small now, but the ripped ones can be re-cycled either for toddler jeans or for quilts!
I think some of the family will be getting socks and underwear for Christmas this year! Dollar Tree has infants socks for $1 a pack.
Getting sweat pants is a good idea also. They're comfortable, and allow for differences in weight gain or loss! I have some in the attic that I hung onto, despite my better judgement at the time. I might be glad that I did!
All adult clothing can be cut down to make clothes for the little ones, but underwear and socks are something I can't make! I sure wish it was still yard sale season around here!!!

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Every few weeks, Kmarts has sales on socks and underwear, buy one get the other 50% off. Each time they have the sale, I go and buy different sizes, you can never have too many in my book. As for sweats, they are easy to wash and easy to dry.

breezyhill said:

around here, the salvation army stores have half off all clothing on wednesdays. I've made it a point to go each week, mainly to buy extra winter clothing.
Breezyhill

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This is the time of year to buy winter or fall clothing, they are all on sale right now because next month, they put out the spring stuff.

Notice something folks? Atlas shrugs and the world crashes. Lesson there.

I rarely get any duds except from Goodwill, and I find really classy clothes, there....people can't believe my stylish wardrobe comes from GW. They have a lot of half price days, too, so the price is right.

I hope they don't raise their prices because prices in retail stores might go up, due to shipping problems.

Michiana MaJo said:

I rarely get any duds except from Goodwill, and I find really classy clothes, there....people can't believe my stylish wardrobe comes from GW. They have a lot of half price days, too, so the price is right.

I hope they don't raise their prices because prices in retail stores might go up, due to shipping problems.

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well, there's even a bigger problem, that I hope folks are seeing. if there are shipping problems, that means less is coming in.

it doesn't matter what the prices are. if there's only 10,000 pairs of shoes and they're all $1,000, that's still only 10,000 pairs of shoes.

wait until this 75 percent decrease in shipping shows up in the stores, for everything we buy. not want. but what we NEED.

all the DGI's will finally open their eyes when they figure out that we don't even make stuff here anymore.

object lesson: buy now, what you can afford, from the thrift stores. at the after christmas sales, scrounge out the bargains and buy more.

we're all going to look like ragamuffins before this is over. I'd just prefer to have the kinds of clothing that will keep me warm in winter and durable for all the hard/harder work, we're going to have to perform, to keep us in food and firewood, etc.

and, keep in mind, just like we don't blab about our personal food preps, don't BLAB about your clothing preps.

trust me on this. this is not woo-woo moonbat theories, or scary stories around the campfire. it IS getting worse. it is going to get A LOT WORSE, before it even thinks about getting better.

pray-plan-pray-prep-PRAY....

breezyhill

Stock up at thrift shops and put aside what you can (and if you don't do the thrift shop thing, you'll be shocked what you can find) and leave the money for other preps. If you go out and prep clothing buying everything new, you will be spending a lot of money---JMHO.

I do this as a normal part of our household purchasing but will be kicking it into high gear.

Remember... those who now use thrift stores... get what you need there NOW! (and I agree, if you're in the right area, the deals can be amazing. Unfortunately, I'm not- this area has been depressed for far too long, and there's simply not enough "good" clothes there to bother spending time looking. My kids live in a much better off city, and have found stunning deals- including one son finding a 100% cashmere overcoat which fits him like it was tailored for him, for $10)

The thing is, once the normal shopping venues for people start showing significant holes in their inventory, people will not only start looking anywhere for what they need- including the thrifts- but no one who has a clue will be donating "unneeded" items.

Summerthyme

Notice something folks? Atlas shrugs and the world crashes. Lesson there.

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Stop the communism?

Freight Haulers Slam on the Brakes

In a normal year, Gordon Trucking Inc. might replace 20% of its fleet of 1,500 big rigs with new trucks. But given the bleak outlook for the freight business, the Pacific, Wash., hauler doesn't intend to buy a single new truck next year.

"We're settling in for nuclear winter in the first half of 2009," says Steve Gordon, operating chief for the company, which hauls everything from paper products to electronics.

He's not alone. Some industry executives and analysts predict that 2009 could be the worst year for freight-transportation volume in three decades or more. As a result, companies in industries ranging from trucking to railroads to ocean shipping are scaling back sharply.

Ocean freighters are docking vessels and putting off delivery of new ships. Rail-car production is expected to plummet as railroads put box cars in storage rather than buy new ones. And U.S. trucking companies are projected to buy just 101,000 tractor trailers next year, down an estimated 22% from this year and 64% from two years ago, according to freight-transportation forecaster FTR Associates.

In a normal year, Gordon Trucking Inc. might replace 20% of its fleet of 1,500 big rigs with new trucks. But given the bleak outlook for the freight business, the Pacific, Wash., hauler doesn't intend to buy a single new truck next year.

"We're settling in for nuclear winter in the first half of 2009," says Steve Gordon, operating chief for the company, which hauls everything from paper products to electronics.

He's not alone. Some industry executives and analysts predict that 2009 could be the worst year for freight-transportation volume in three decades or more. As a result, companies in industries ranging from trucking to railroads to ocean shipping are scaling back sharply.

Ocean freighters are docking vessels and putting off delivery of new ships. Rail-car production is expected to plummet as railroads put box cars in storage rather than buy new ones. And U.S. trucking companies are projected to buy just 101,000 tractor trailers next year, down an estimated 22% from this year and 64% from two years ago, according to freight-transportation forecaster FTR Associates.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122895724389896631.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

wife works at walmart ..

no shortage there .. they're going like gangbusters with TONS of clothes coming in, getting stacked (thats her job), and - presumably - selling (not her job). i understand that target and other major discount stores arent seeing this drop either. so we wont run out of clothes for a little while longer ..

some day all those bashing wallyworld may be very happy they're still around.

I would like to see a drop in imported clothing from India and China. That clothing is made pretty much by slave labor. Those people get about .19 cents an hour to sew that clothing in India. I can't contribute to that and would just rather pay more for American made cloths.

Dex said:

I would like to see a drop in imported clothing from India and China. That clothing is made pretty much by slave labor. Those people get about .19 cents an hour to sew that clothing in India. I can't contribute to that and would just rather pay more for American made cloths.

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I agree with you, dex.

but, we have no clothing manufacturers anymore in the U.S.. or if we do, what's left of them can't clothe 300 million people if all the imported stuff stops coming in.

and, we no longer have a textile industry. all those mills that ran for a couple hundred years making cloth, they're all gone, and the machinery has been shipped to china.

looking at the big picture, this would be an opportunity for american industry to rise again. but at what point in the future could we expect that? and in enough quantity to clothe 300 million people?

the machinery to make raw goods and make material, all our tool and diemakers are practically long-gone from this world.

are there blueprints for the factory machines? how in the world can we get the machinery for these factories made without the tool and die makers?

and, since the tool and die making industry is gone, and all of that machinery has been shipped over to china and our factories dismantled, we'd have to get that up and running before we could even think about textile factories coming back and being functional.

and even before you get to making the cloth, we're going to need our farmers to grow cotton. and we're going to need sheep, lots of sheep, for wool.

I don't even know about all the synthetic stuff. that stuff comes from imports too. so, I guess we might just all be back to clothing made out of pre-synthetic materials.

I read somewhere yesterday that within the past year 67,000 factories in china have closed, within this year, 2008. I don't know what percentage of that 67,000 is related to clothing, and I don't know the total number of people that worked in those 67,000 factories. but, how many are going to close in china in 2009?

I'm just saying, we're all going to be SOL if we're not prepared. we must begin to think outside of the box, beyond just food and water. I'd hate to be hoeing the garden barefooted and in a flour sack. [oh, wait a minute. that was the other depression. flour doesn't come in cloth sacks anymore]

Breezyhill

Sad but true...

Manufactureing, farming, textiles, jobs, all gone so that corporate big wigs could make more money while selling our country down the river.

If we can't bring it back, there isn't much hope for us.

Dex said:

Sad but true...

Manufactureing, farming, textiles, jobs, all gone so that corporate big wigs could make more money while selling our country down the river.

If we can't bring it back, there isn't much hope for us.

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well, I think we can bring it back. unfortunately, I think we'll be fighting the illegals for our chance to work in the fields in the process.

Breezyhill

I just remembered something...two or three weeks ago I was up very early one Sunday morning watching US Farm Report. One of the stories was the cotton crop in the south and how there is less cotton planted this year because farmers chose to plant corn. In addition to that fact, the cotton crop is not good this year so expect the prices to go up. So, not only is there a drop in clothing production, but the cost of cotton fabrics will increase.

Bump---this is important.

Re: thrift stores...we are lucky as my SO travels all around for work and manages to find some significant deals, like a leather dress jacket for my neighbor for $5. My nieces are catching on and recently got a Pendleton wool long coat for $3.

here's a great link, american culture by the decades. I wonder what the 2000-2010 decade will turn out to be? obviously, the last two years are going to chronicle a major downturn.

http://kclibrary.lonestar.edu/decade30.html

I bought some extra virgin olive oil today bc of this news

Think it's bad NOW???

Related:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=314615

(I'd read this one if I were you...)