A very interesting read: Gojus Notes and Thoughts-
Safe America Pandemic meeting for Business
that took place in NYC on Sept. 6, 2006.
http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.GojusNotesAndThoughts-SafeAmericaConferenceNYC
07 September 2006
Goju – at 12:11
These are my notes and thoughts from the Safe America Pandemic meeting for Business that took place in NYC on Sept. 6, 2006.
Safe America is a 12 year old company encouraging people to prepare for emergencies. They have partnered with many large corps now for the prep for BF
The conference was Business focused
It was held in NBC-TV’s Studio where they shoot SNL (Saturday Night Live – go figure!)
They are holding similar events in Major and secondary cities
www.safeamerica.org
They gave out a CD with Power point presentations, PSA tv spots, and all slide shows presented at the conference – I have uploaded them to
www.mipodcast.com/H5N1
There are many valuable gems there – look for the file named - SafeAmericaPresentation
On to the Meeting…..
First panel CDC Dept of Homeland Security National Center for Disaster preparedness – Columbia University (Megadisasters)
My notes: Talked about Migratory birds and and poultry trade as spreading disease Said most bird problems in Asia. Will ask families of sick people to stay home Navu study – wash hands 5x a day reduced illness by 45% Kept using 1918 figures of 30% sick & 2.5% fatality, 1–2 months to reach US after Efficient H2H in asia Initial response may be travel restrictions
Trying to push the first wave later in time and lower case rate Used comparison of 1918 – Phili vs St Louis – Phili had big parade biggest death rate. St Louis instituted social distancing measures and had lowest death rate Goals:
1 – Plan for impact on Biz
2 – Protect People
3 –Establish policies
4 – Allocate resources
5 – Communicate and educate
6 – Coordinate plans and responses
They hope to not have to distribute critical resources during pandemic 1-telecommunications 2 – Electricity 3 – Water expect 30–50% worker outages
Gut from Columbia said We are facing a Megadisaster Not facing reality Says public is very worried Hospitals need $5 billion now and $1 billion each year to hope to deal with this.
Overall it was good general BF coverage – they were begging for biz to pay attention Say it ultimately comes down to the individual
GOJU ASKED THE FIRST QUESTIONS: 1 – Why do you use CFR of 2.5% when the current rate has been 50% and Indonesia is seeing 80% - It seems to be getting worse 2 – You say the birds are a problem in asia, what about the LPAI found in the birds in PA and Mich this past week?
Answers We don’t know what the CFR will finally be so we are using history as a guide They were stumped at the bird question said wasn’t problem at this point in time – It seems they were talking heads sent by the agencies to give the party line. –
Someone in the audience said they ran simulations and did a study where they had 80–90% worker outages.
Bottom Line – We know more
During break I met a woman who works for the company who will be distributing Tamiflu for Roche to biz – she knew nothing and has not prepped herself
Panel 2 Understanding corporate threat 2 consultant companies and homeland security
talked about Train studies of London underground maintenance and part supply was biggest long term problem How could Biz lower their staffing needs to 50% Big empasis on not planning but DOING – moving to ACTION Said this is NOT 1918 – medical, population, society, politics 73% of Biz who had 10 day disruption had to close 43% never recovered Doing is the key Communication tools very important to develop All comes down to taking action NOW
Break
Panel 3 Plotting Prevention and Treatment Solvay Pharma (making vax) Roache labs NYC Dept of health Affiliated Physicians 3M
I missed most of the vax guy talk – had to talk a call from my biz Roche – they are making 400 million dose by end of year and have enough to deal with problem in 2 years US is stockpiling Tami in 10 locations to be used by emergency personal NYHD – he was funny – he complained about the lack of preparedness and that NYC and other health depts. Are not being given what they need – he wanted toi be booked on SNL – only funny moment of the day (leave it to us New Yorkers to laugh in the face of disaster)
This was a disappointing section – not much to report
Break – I turn and see Dr Nabarro (UN) sitting by himself in the front row. He must have just arrived. So… I sat next to him, introduced myself, told him I have followed his career and thought he was very brave to say 150 million would die only to have to retract it next day. Next we talked… for 10 minutes… alone… uninterrupted.
There is NO news from China
Indonesia is a mess & not cooperating Going to Indo next week to see what happened w/ tami blanket – he didn’t know results yet of that & roadblocks
Key people ARE supplied
He is prepped but wouldn’t talk about it
Africa is a BIG concern
He was impressed with my knowledge He reads the flu forums sometimes He is exhausted and very concerned When I mentioned Qinhai – his eyes lit up and muttered “you know about that?” We exchanged cards and he introduced me to his UN assistant. We exchanged cards – I put the flu forums URL on the back of my cards
NEXT was a teleconferenc call with Dr Houssin – Chief Med officer National flu coordinater – FRANCE They are developing plans Improving regional and local responses Stockpiled: 14 mill antivirals 350 mill masks 160 mill other masks ? 40 mill vax ? they are working with: embassies hospitals airports cross border relations doing social distancing experiments with Sanove vantris (spelling?) involving: mask usage, eworking, how to deal w/ sick workers AT THE WORKPLACE People not taking it seriously – they think Gov will take care of them
QUESTION TIME Goju gets first question:
When WHO raises the pandemic level to 4, 5 & 6 what will Frances response be?
Answer: They will not close borders but will put restriction on them and monitor them They may quarentine arirports for a time
Nabarro Speaks Says he lives and breaths this He was not happy with the French response to my question about the airports He kept saying “when the pandemic comes…” “the Possible pandemic” H5N1 is the nastiest virus ever seen” Talked about cats, gogs infected and limited H2H Showed an interactive map of H5N1 spread Emphasized how fast it is spreading this year He has BIG worries about Nigeria and Egypt – did not elaborate Quiet this summer but expect increases in asia and Africa Going to Indo next week to see whats going on there
He is sad about thailands recurring outbreaks after they effectively beat it last year Probably many more infections and deaths than reported Inefficient H2H in N Sumatra There will be a pandemic – may be H5N1 could be like 1918 or worse Would not estimate how many would die – said he got into trouble for doing that before Once it goes efficient H2H – BOOM it will be too late to prep Right now we have “God given time” to prepare Levels 4, 5 & 6 could happen very fast UN asked WHO to go to level 4 months ago – they refused – he said they were right to refuse Restriction of movement may be necessary
His job is to coordinate 100–200 international bodies to all work together in same direction Talked about how they did it for SARS and how close we were to a pandemic Possible threats – Rule of law, security, continuance of governments UN is following 2 models for pandemic – Heavy and Light Must engage the public Life goes on he said – must maintain functioning Most countries will keep borders open (hence the france comments) Keep transportation moving Talked about you cannot cull poultry if you don’t compensate farmers Said indo gov is scared to take money from World Bank due to certain Corruption.
Break
Panel 4 Red cross Homeland security – Cptn Lynn Slepski Walgreens Deloitte & Touche
Trying to recruit volunteers for Red Cross – very poor response Business continuity presentation – excellent Must – cross train workers Plan for leadership continuity Don’t do tabletop exercises – just do Make a continuity plan – any plan but institute NOW tweek as you go Quality assurance plan Preposition supplies Teach people how to use those supplies – used the example of N-95 mask usage for a bearded worker How do u pay for voluntary or forced quarentine of workers The homeland security officer (in a uniform – I loved this lady)….. She asked who washed their hands before eating lunch – 10 out of 250 – HA She talked about her preps and how UNPREPARRED she really was – She talked like a mom to her kids about behaving in a healthy and responsible way This woman put me to tears – tears were streaming down my face – I couldn’t help it – it was the first time I have heard anyone talk like me BEGGING each and every person in the room to begin prepping.
Break
Panel 5 Campell soup NBC Motorola St barnabas health system JMC Marketing
Motorola is making all wireless devices into emergency communication deveices with something she called – ICOE – In Case Of Emergency – it is a number you dial and they will contact you in case of national emergency They are going to start airing PSA’s on TV all over the country about hand washing and food prep – for 2 weeks per person in English and Spanish
GOJU’s TAKE ON ALL THIS
1 – We know more than almost everyone on the planet.
2 – TPTB are taking this VERY seriously
3 – I asked each member of Safe America if they themselves are prepared – 2 said they have 2 weeks of food… not much else – everyone else said… no. I asked why since I really didn’t understand how THEY knowing everything but haven’t prepped… there was stunning silence – from each and every one of them.
4 – of the 30–40 people I spoke with, 2 were prepped for 3 months, 5 for 2 weeks.
5 – I spoke with a rep from HESS oil. I expressed my feeling that if oil stopped, we are screwed. She agreed and then told me how this was on the front burner in all the oil companies plans. She said the wells, refineries and shipping all were 24/7 with multiple levels of backup both in parts and manpower – they are confident they can ride it out BUT… the problem they are having is further down the line at the regional and local level. They can’t guarentee that the oil will reach the pumps and if it did, that the pumps would work. That was an opinion echoed through the day. They are VERY aware that if they screw up, Power, Food, Water are all done for. I asked if they were making deals with the military to supply them first to run things like Power plants and food transport – she said they do have arrangements for this but she didn’t think that would be necessary due to the planning they have done… including the power industry
6 – many people who spoke and I spoke with were “talking heads” sent by their companies or agencies with a script (I use the word loosely). They were not experts in their fields nor very well informed outside of their directed framework.
7 – I spoke with a rep from UNICEF – they are planning a major campaign to educate KIDS to the BF – I heard this from multiple people there – they believe the way to get to the parents is through the kids. They believe that the pandemic will spread through the schools. They want hand washing and cough techniques to be a BIG part of the education process.
8- My final thought – the world is waking up to actually doing something. The problem IMHO is much larger than we as a planet can deal with… If we have a high CFR, We Are Screwed.
I have contact info for Dr Nabarro. As in my questions at the conference, I will contact him ONLY ONCE… so the message MUST BE ON POINT.
Lets mull over this meeting, all I have seen and decide as a group how to make use of this valuable resource. We have one bullet – lets use it wisely.
Wishing you all good luck. We’re gonna need it.
