05/11 | Daily BF: No specifically targeted vaccines are yet available for H5N1

Link to yesterday's thread:http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=196840

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria
o Sudan

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o Czech Republic (H5)
o Denmark
o France
o Georgia
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia & Montenegro
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine
o United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated April 24, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

No specifically targeted vaccines are yet available for H5N1.

Computer Models Predict Future Flu Pandemic​

By Rosanne Skirble
Washington
10 May 2006

Public health officials across the globe want answers to the same urgent question: What will they do if the deadly H5N1 avian flu virus mutates and sparks a human pandemic? Since 2003, the virus has spread to Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa killing millions of birds and infecting more than 200 people -- half of whom have died because of contact with diseased poultry.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University developed computer models to analyze a variety of public health emergency scenarios, including restrictions on travel, isolation of infected patients, stockpiling of antivirals and the use of less effective but more available generic vaccines. The model simulated the spread of a pandemic across the United States and England using data based on population density, demographics and human travel patterns.

Researcher Derek Cummings says the model shows that no single response can control a pandemic, should one develop. "We found that you really need suites of interventions in order to significantly alter the course of the pandemic."

The the spread of the flu by a few weeks, Cummings says. He adds, however, that an approach that includes antiviral use for infected and non-infected individuals living in the same household, combined with school closures, could lower infection rates by more than 50 percent.

"But we also found that the resources… [required] to do that are more than most nations have accumulated thus far. In order to employ the antiviral strategies that we found most effective, you would need antivirals for 50 percent of the population," he says. "Thus far, the United States and the UK have targeted 25 percent of the population as their antiviral stockpile."

No specifically targeted vaccines are yet available for H5N1. But there are plenty of vaccines developed for other similar strains of avian flu. While they're less effective against H5N1, Cummings says they could help reduce the impact of a pandemic -- though, again, only in combination with other responses.

He says the most effective strategy is to stop the pandemic in its tracks, at its source. "Even though it is a challenging task, given that this could emerge in any of a number of locations that might have very poor surveillance systems and very poor public health systems, I think that both the U.S. and the WHO (World Health Organization) have recognized that we should support nations across the world in shoring up the surveillance and getting ready to mount a response if there is an emergence [of the virus]."

Should a pandemic emerge, the models suggest the public health scenario could be grim. The sick would swamp the hospitals, millions would die and basic social services would be interrupted.

The U.S. avian flu plan unveiled by the Bush Administration last week outlines specific recommendations for businesses, schools and the health care industry in a worst-case scenario. Anthony Faucci with the National Institutes of Health says preparing for the worst makes sense. "Given the track record of what we know pandemic influenza can do historically from our experience in the 20th century (the 1918 flu pandemic), it would be irresponsible not to prepare for the worst. And that doesn't mean to panic," he says. "That doesn't mean to think that the world is coming to an end. That means to pay attention to what is going on and to prepare ourselves."

Derek Cummings from Johns Hopkins University says the simulated epidemic models he and his colleagues have developed can help nations better assess their risks and direct scarce public health resources where they are needed the most.

The project is a joint effort by Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Imperial College, London, and RTI International in North Carolina. The research was published in the journal Nature.

http://www.voanews.com/english/AmericanLife/2006-05-10-voa46.cfm

Go figure PCV..John Hopkins eh? It says alot........

Smugglers Spreading Bird Flu, Experts Warn​

Brian Handwerk
for National Geographic News
May 9, 2006

Unlike the events depicted in tonight's made-for-TV movie about a bird-flu pandemic, so far avian influenza can't easily be transmitted from person to person.

But humans may still be responsible for much of the disease's spread.

"The most common way that avian influenza is spread is by the movement of poultry and poultry products—both legal and illegal," said William Karesh, director of the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society's (WCS) field veterinary program.

In the battle against bird flu, international health authorities must handle a thriving legal trade in live birds and chicks.

Illicit dealers also move poultry products, from meats to more unusual items, such as a large cargo of Chinese duck feathers recently seized at a North Carolina port.

Estimates place the market value of such illegal international trade well into the billions of U.S. dollars.

H5N1, the deadly bird flu strain responsible for 114 known human deaths since 2003, is tough enough to survive even in frozen products.

Bird flu can be spread through physical contact with foodstuffs or if those products are used as stock food or fertilizer for other animals.

The disease cannot be acquired by consuming properly cooked poultry even if that poultry is infected. (Read more bird flu facts.)

Africa's Open Borders

Migratory birds have been in the spotlight for their role in spreading H5N1 among wild birds and possibly introducing the virus into domestic flocks.

Karesh is among those tracking the flu in wild birds in hopes of short-circuiting its spread (related photos: tracking bird flu).

"We're monitoring wild birds around the world and organizing global avian-influenza surveillance programs in wild birds—both in the pet trade and free ranging," he said.

"We're trying to bring together government groups and [nonprofits] working with wild birds to generate what's almost an early warning system."

But in some places migratory animals don't appear to play a role.

"If you look at what's going on in Africa, it looks like almost all of that spread is due to [smuggling] birds," Karesh said.

Nigerian authorities believe that H5N1 entered their country with a shipment of illegally imported day-old chicks and has spread to at least seven states through the trade in domestic birds.

The virus appeared in Nigeria's northern Kano state (map of Nigeria) back in February and has proliferated despite its apparent absence in the area's wild birds.

Smuggling is a serious concern in the developing world, where regulators lack the funding to enforce controls.

"[Many such] governments say that they are going to ban the movement of birds, but they don't really have the funding or support to do that," Karesh explained.

How Might Bird Flu Reach the U.S.?

Still, no country is immune to the illegal bird trade, not even the U.S., experts warn.

"It is a possible risk in the U.S.," said Brett Sandercock, an avian ecologist at Kansas State University in Manhattan.

"There have been outbreaks of Exotic Newcastle disease carried by poultry, and it's thought that those birds came [illegally] from Mexico."

The 2002-03 California outbreak of Exotic Newcastle disease—a fatal and highly contagious viral disease in birds—killed more than 3 million birds and cost poultry producers upwards of 150 million U.S. dollars.

Some birds are smuggled into the U.S. for illegal cockfighting, while others supply specialty markets.

Recently officials at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) uncovered shipments of frozen, boneless Thai chicken feet in Connecticut and Massachusetts.

Thousands of pounds of the illegal chicken feet had been imported since 2004, labeled as jellyfish in frozen containers holding various other seafood products.

Jim Rogers, APHIS spokesperson in Riverdale, Maryland, says that, while USDA personnel no longer patrol the nation's borders, they do run a compliance team that looks to uncover illegal trade in potentially harmful agricultural products.

"They go to places where they'd be likely to find prohibited products—ethnic markets and restaurants. That's one of the ways we look for smuggling," he explained.

"We'll trace it back along the supply chain. For us it's more important to shut down the supply line than to just find the person that received it at the end."

Wild Birds May Increase Exposure

Still, some experts say such measures, along with tighter border security by the Department of Homeland Security, may not be enough to stop birds from getting into the country illegally.

The prospect concerns APHIS head Ron Dehaven.

Dehaven told the Associated Press late last month of his worries regarding "millions of international passengers coming into the United States—any one of which could be bringing poultry or poultry products … that could be infected."

James Gilardi, an ecologist and director of the World Parrot Trust in Davis, California, agrees.

"When people bring the birds onto passenger airlines, that's contained air space," he said.

"For many hours those animals are breathing the same air as the passengers and you have very, very direct exposure. The risk is great."

Yet Gilardi is even more worried about the legal trade in wild birds, such as parrots and songbirds.

His organization opposes the trade in wild-caught birds because of conservation and cruelty concerns, but he warns of its health hazards as well.

"We've grown comfortable with the idea that quarantines protect us, when in fact there are many cases where they don't protect us," he said.

"[Think of] everybody upstream of that quarantine: the trapper, the trader, the exporter, the importer, the baggage handlers. None of those people are protected from this disease, because [quarantine] happens after all of those people have been exposed," he said.

Gilardi also explained that human exposure to the disease is likely to be at higher levels from pet birds than from poultry animals in a country like the United States.

"What's unique about the wild-bird trade is that they are going directly into people's homes, sitting in the kitchen and singing away and pooping away," he said. "The exposure to the general public is really direct."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060509_flu-smuggling.html

Myanmar (Burma)

Bird flu experts to help combat virus in Myanmar​

Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 9-May-2006 09:12 hrs

Veterinarians examine chickens at a laboratory in Mandalay. International bird flu experts will spend two months in Myanmar to increase awareness of and combat the spread of the deadly virus.
.
International bird flu experts will spend two months in Myanmar to increase awareness of and combat the spread of the deadly virus.
.
The British and Australian experts will travel to farms in central Myanmar after more than 100 outbreaks were detected in two districts around the city of Mandalay in March.
.
"They will make field trips to restricted townships in Mandalay and Sagaing divisions and discuss control of the disease in cooperation with Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department (LBVD) staff," the official New Light of Myanmar newspaper said.
.
The visit comes after United Nations officials expressed grave concern about the bird flu situation in Myanmar because of the country's poor economy and its crumbling health care system.
.
Some 660,000 chickens and quails from 545 farms have been slaughtered since the H5N1 virus was first confirmed in 13 central townships around Mandalay, the newspaper said Monday.
.
The military-run government claimed late last month that the outbreaks were under control and lifted a ban on poultry sales in the area.
.
However the newspaper said farms will only be allowed to restock after livestock officials have declared them bird-flu free for two months.
.
"Only when the situation is safe will restocking programmes and the provision of chickens and feedstuffs be implemented," it said.
.
"Illegally imported chickens and quails and those that fail to register at the LBVD and have no animal health certificates will not be allowed on farms." Myanmar has received millions of dollars in donations of laboratory and medical equipment from UN agencies, Thailand, China and Japan to fight the disease.
.
The H5N1 strain has killed more than 100 people in nine countries since 2003. Scientists fear a global pandemic if the virus mutates and becomes easily transmissible between humans.
.
No human cases have been reported in Myanmar. — AFP
.
http://www.todayonline.com/articles/117400.asp

Indonesia... Indonesian new version...

May 11, 2006

Three suspected bird flu patients die in Medan​

Apriadi Gunawan, The Jakarta Post, Medan

Three suspected bird flu patients have died in North Sumatra during the past week, with the latest victim passing away in a Medan hospital Wednesday morning.

According to the North Sumatra Bird Flu Prevention Team, the three victims, all from Kubu Simbelang village in Karo regency, died several days after being admitted to hospitals in Medan.

The team said three other suspected bird flu patients are currently being treated at Adam Malik Hospital in Medan.

Nur Rasyid Lubis, the head of North Sumatra's Suspected Bird Flu Patient Management team, said Wednesday the three dead victims had eaten chicken together.

Several days after eating the chicken, "the first suspected victim, Fuji Ginting, experienced breathing problems and a high fever. The same symptoms were also suffered by the two other victims, Anta Ginting and Roy Karo-Karo", Nur said.

Anta, 29, died at Adam Malik Hospital on Wednesday morning, while Roy, 18, died at the same hospital Tuesday. Roy's father, Fuji, 40, passed away May 4 at Elisabeth Hospital.

Nur, who is also deputy director of medical services at Adam Malik, said the hospital did everything in its power to treat the patients, but was unable to save them.

North Sumatra Health Office chief Fatni Sulani said the office was investigating the cases and had sent blood samples from the three to Jakarta for testing.

"We expect the results of the blood tests to be completed in the next two weeks. For the meantime, the three victims are still suspected, not positive, bird flu patients," Fatni said.

She said that North Sumatra has not had a confirmed case of bird flu in humans.

"So far, the bird flu virus in North Sumatra has only affected fowl. Thirteen regencies/cities have been put on bird flu alert after the virus was found in local birds," Fatni said.

She said the cities on bird flu alert included Binjai, Deli Serdang, Langkat and Medan.

North Sumatra Husbandry Office head Rahim Siregar said Wednesday his office had added Karo regency to the list of bird flu prone areas in the province.

"Fowl in North Sumatra have been affected by bird flu since July 2005, but there have been no confirmed cases in humans," Rahim said.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20060511.G02&irec=3

Indonesia... Chinese news version

Three suspected bird flu patients die in Indonesia​

www.chinaview.cn 2006-05-11 12:47:05

JAKARTA, May 11 (Xinhua) -- Three suspected bird flu patients have died in Indonesia's North Sumatra province during the past week, all were the residents of a same village in Karo regency, a newspaper reported Thursday.

The province's Bird Flu Prevention Team also announced three other suspected bird flu patients are currently being treated at Adam Malik Hospital in the provincial capital of Medan, said The Jakarta Post.

The three dead victims reportedly had eaten chicken together, and several days later they experienced breathing problems and high fever.

North Sumatra Health Office chief Fatni Sulani was quoted as saying the office was investigating the cases and had sent blood samples from the three to Jakarta for testing.

"We expect the results of the blood tests to be completed in the next two weeks. For the meantime, the three victims are still suspected, not positive, bird flu patients," Fatni said.

She said that North Sumatra has not had a confirmed case of bird flu in humans.

"So far, the bird flu virus in North Sumatra has only affected fowl," she said.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 25 bird flu deaths in Indonesia. Enditem
Editor: Wang Yan

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/11/content_4533760.htm

This morning when I woke up, I checked one of my BF new sources... There were over fifty Bird Flu stories, dominated by the US MSM with stories of 'don't worry - be happy' Then there were 2 articles from Asian sources about these three people in Indonesia who died last week of suspected BF (posts 6 & 7).

IMHO, what's scary is what's not in the news as what is in the news...

To go with posts 6 & 7 above:

Suspect Sumatra H5N1 Cluster Raises Pandemic Concerns​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05100603/H5N1_Sumatra_Pandemic.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 10, 2006

Last casualties who died were Ana Br Ginting, the woman was 29 years old, the citizen Street Veteran, Kabanjahe, the capital of the Karo Regency. He died around struck 05.00 WIB, during in the maintenance in the central Public Hospital (RSUP) Adam the Owner, Street Bungalow Medan.

Two casualties beforehand that died was Roy Karo-Karo, 19 years. He
Died on May 9 2006, now his mother Praise Br Ginting died last May 4. Both of them were expected strong terjangkit the bird flu virus.

Now casualties that still was treated at this time, numbering five people. Four people that was treated in isolation space of RSUP Adam the Owner, respectively Jones Ginting (25), Bonny Karo-karo (18) and Renaita Tarigan (1.8 years), as well as Obviously Ulina Ginting (8).

While Rafael Ginting, 8 years, was treated in RS Elisabeth, Street Imam Breakingprep Bonjol Medan.

The above detail on the suspected H5N1 bird flu fatalities raises additional pandmeic concerns. The mother died on May 4 followed the death of her son on May 9 and another family member on May 10. The delay of 5-10 days between the index case and family members is the hallmark of person-to-person transmission of H5N1. In Indonesia, as many as 2/3 of cases are linked to family clusters and the vast majority of the clusters have the 5-10 day gap.

However, in the past familial clusters were smaller, generally invoving 2 or 3 people. This cluster has 8 family members who have died or are hospitalized with bird flu symptoms, signaling a more efficient transmission of H5N1.

H5N1 has been present in Indonesia since 2003, but the first reported human cases were reported last year. If the current cluster is positive for H5N1, they will be the largest cluster in Indonesia and the largest confirmed cluster if all test positive.

In any event, the large number of family members, ranging in age from 40 to 1.5 and the differences in onset dates suggests this cluster is cause for concern.

Widespread H5N1 Bird Flu Migration in Western Europe​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110601/H5N1_Europe_2006.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 11, 2006

Letschin / Maerkisch-Oderland / BB* / White Stork / 3 May 2006
Harburg / Danube-Ries / Bavaria / Swan / 2 May 2006
Molfsee / Rendsburg-Eckernfoerde / SH** / Crested Grebe / 2 May 2006
Denklingen / Landsberg on the Lech / Bavaria / Merganser / 28 Apr 2006
Parkstetten / Straubing (town) / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 28 Apr 2006
Kirchroth-Nierachdorf / Straubing (town) / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 26 Apr 2006
Kirchroth-Muenster / Town of Straubing / Bavaria / Mute Swan / 26 Apr 2006
Letschin / Maerkisch-Oderland / BB / White Stork / 26 Apr 2006
Bautzen (Neumalsitz) / Bautzen / Saxony / Wild Duck / 26 Apr 2006


The above list of wild birds in Germany recently testing positive for H5N1 bird flu provides additional positive data that H5N1 is widespread throughout Europe.

The list of H5N1 positive birds in Denmark, between March 14 and May 2

26 Tufted ducks (_Aythya fuligula_)
6 Common buzzards (_Buteo buteo_)
4 Mute swans (_Cygnus olor_)
3 Whooper swans (_Cygnus cygnus_)
1 Peregrine falcon (_Falco peregrinus_)
1 Rough-legged buzzard (_Buteo lagopus_)
1 Greylag goose (_Anser anser_)
1 Great crested goose (_Podiceps cristatus_)

provides more evidence of H5N1 migrating through Europe, and is in marked contrast to the negative data announced by the Wetlands International, who collected 7500 samples in Africa and failed to find one H5N1 positive bird. There was no mention of the detection of 100’s or 1000’s of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI), which would have been expected from testing 7500 wild bird samples.

The results in Africa were similar to the DEFRA results in Britain where a similar number of birds were tested and a single H5N1 positive was found. Genetic information for two LPAI was found, but no virus was isolated. The failure to detect or isolate LPAI in 7500 collections over multiple months indicates the collection and/or testing of the samples was fatally flawed, generating many more false negatives than true positives.

Avian influenza is common in wild birds. Studies in Canada found H5 in 24% of healthy young mallards collected in British Columbia in August, 2005. Low path H5 (H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N9) was also found in other Candian provinces tested. There are 16 H serotypes and 9 N serotypes, creating 144 possible serotypes. All known serotypes have been isolated from wild birds, which generally have an LPAI positive rate of 1-10%. 2005 LPAI from wild birds in Alaska have also been collected. Negative data on H5N1 from thousands of wild bird samples are meaningless without the detection of 100’s or 1000’s of LPAI to validate the collection / screening process.

The positive data above from Germany and Denmark, as well as additional countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, leaves little doubt that wild birds in all areas were H5N1 positive in the winter, and wild birds are transporting and transmitting H5N1 in the spring. Recent outbreaks of H5N1 in three regions in Russia and two counties in Qinghai Province in China provide additional positive data for H5N1 migration through several continents.

The negative data cited by wildlife conservation groups assisting FAO remains highly suspect, and these groups have been citing their negative data on H5N1 since they conducted tests in Mongolia last August, where H5N1 was also confirmed. Thus, in 12 months of generating thousands of negative data points, they have yet to publish the 100’s or 1000;s of LPAI that would have been detected if appropriate collection and testing methods were used. The publication of the negative data, without appropriate controls, by the New York Times / International Herald Tribune and National Geographic remains highly misleading to an uneducated and misinformed readership.

Bird Flu in Wild Birds in North America in 2005​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05110602/Bird_Flu_NA_2005.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 11, 2006

Recent reports of failures to detect H5N1 bird flu in Britain and Africa have raised serious concerns about collection and testing methodologies. In each report, about 7500 birds were tested and from the 15,000 birds, a single H5N1 positive was detected in Scotland. The DEFRA screening in Britain listed the date and number of birds tested. Only two birds were positive for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and attempts to isolate virus failed from those two birds failed. These data raised concerns about storage methodologies, which allow the swabs to dry out, reducing the likelihood of detection or isolation of HPAI or LPAI. The report from Africa does not mention LPAI detection, creating significant credibility issues.

Failure to detect or isolate LPAI is of concern because avian influenza (bird flu) is common in wild birds. LPAI H5 was readily detected throughout southern Canada when August, 2005 collections from young mallards were tested.

Listed below are a number of LPAI isolates from North America collected between August and December 2005 that are being submitted by Ohio State for whole genome sequencing at The Institute for Genome Research as part of the NIAID flu blueprint project.. Although it remains unclear why H5 was not identified in the United States, because many of the H5 positive birds in Canada would have been expected to migrate into the United States, the listing below does highlight the fact that LPAI in wild birds in 2005 is common.

A listing of LPAI detected in the 7500 wild birds in Africa would be useful.


A/pintail/Alaska/20/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/49/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/53/2005(H3N6)

A/pintail/Alaska/99/2005(H4N6)

A/pintail/Alaska/102/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/211/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/246/2005(H8N4)

A/mallard/Alaska/256/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/279/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/310/2005(H4N6)

A/mallard/Alaska/312/2005(H12N5)

A/pintail/Alaska/314/2005(H8N4)

A/pintail/Alaska/315/2005(H3N8)

A/mallard/Alaska/708/2005(H8N4)

A/mallard/Alaska/715/2005(H3N8)

A/pintail/Alaska/779/2005(H3N8)

A/longtail duck/Maryland/295/2005(N8)

A/common scoter/Maryland/297/2005(H3N8)

A/white winged scoter/Maryland/301/2005(H11N9)

A/environment/Ohio/1007/2005(H9N2)

A/mallard/Delaware/418/2005(H7N3)

A/longtail duck/Maryland/291/2005(H3N8)

A/snow goose/Maryland/353/2005(H6N1)

A/snow goose/Maryland/364/2005(H6N1)

A/snow goose/Maryland/410/2005(H6N1)

YEMEN: Poultry business loses US $1 million a day due to bird-flu fears​

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/ec3b56e5547629b79e838192ba507511.htm

SANAA, 10 May (IRIN) - Yemen's poultry industry is losing roughly US $1 million a day due to the potentially deadly H5N1 avian flu, according to officials at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, who say this figure could reach as high as $5 million if the problem goes unchecked.

"Due to consumers' fears of the pandemic, losses to the poultry sector are estimated at US $1 million per day," said Ghalib al-Eryani, director of the government-run Animal Resources Department.

Even though Yemen is officially free of the disease, many citizens have abstained from eating chicken or eggs due to frenzied reports of bird-flu epidemics elsewhere in the region. "I'm trying to keep my meals free of chickens and eggs – I haven't eaten them for months," said Abdulfatah Ahmed, a bookseller in the capital, Sana'a. "I'm afraid."

According to al-Eryani, his department had received numerous requests from poultry sellers for compensation for lost business. While addressing the Consultative Council late last month, Minister of Health Abdulkareem Ras'e suggested that poultry owners be compensated with US $1 per chicken culled in the event of the bird flu's appearance.

Ras'e has already warned of the potentially dire consequences of a domestic bird-flu outbreak. The World Health Organization predicted that, in the event of the disease's appearance, some five million heads of poultry could be destroyed, while the cost to local industry could rise as high as US $2 billion per year. The local poultry sector produces approximately 100 million chickens annually.

In an effort to pre-empt such a scenario, the government had already prepared an emergency plan, say officials. "We set up an operation room last October to undertake preventive measures and prepare a national anti-bird flu plan," he said al-Eryani. "We're keeping a ban in place on poultry imports from countries hit by avian influenza and have also begun field serology surveillance and collected 1,781 specimens which have all tested negative."

Al-Eryani went on to cite additional precautionary measures, such as bird-flu specific training for health workers and the establishment of vast slaughterhouses wherein birds can be culled en masse according to health standards.

A recent report issued by the United States Agency for International development (USAID) made a number of further recommendations for pre-emption, including more health training, public awareness campaigns and the establishment of laboratories and surveillance centres. The report also noted that more coordination was needed between relevant government agencies, and that more funding should be made available to combat potential outbreaks of the disease.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060509_flu-smuggling.html?source=rss


Smugglers Spreading Bird Flu, Experts Warn
Brian Handwerk
for National Geographic News
May 9, 2006

Unlike the events depicted in tonight's made-for-TV movie about a bird-flu pandemic, so far avian influenza can't easily be transmitted from person to person.

But humans may still be responsible for much of the disease's spread.

"The most common way that avian influenza is spread is by the movement of poultry and poultry products—both legal and illegal," said William Karesh, director of the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society's (WCS) field veterinary program.

In the battle against bird flu, international health authorities must handle a thriving legal trade in live birds and chicks.

Illicit dealers also move poultry products, from meats to more unusual items, such as a large cargo of Chinese duck feathers recently seized at a North Carolina port.

Estimates place the market value of such illegal international trade well into the billions of U.S. dollars.

H5N1, the deadly bird flu strain responsible for 114 known human deaths since 2003, is tough enough to survive even in frozen products.

Bird flu can be spread through physical contact with foodstuffs or if those products are used as stock food or fertilizer for other animals.

The disease cannot be acquired by consuming properly cooked poultry even if that poultry is infected. (Read more bird flu facts.)

Africa's Open Borders

Migratory birds have been in the spotlight for their role in spreading H5N1 among wild birds and possibly introducing the virus into domestic flocks.

Karesh is among those tracking the flu in wild birds in hopes of short-circuiting its spread (related photos: tracking bird flu). (click on link to page 2)

http://www.tfponline.com/QuickHeadl...ry.asp?Path=ChatTFPress/2006/05/11&ID=Ar04000


Alaska using jail inmates to watch for bird flu
By Ann Potempa c. Anchorage Daily News

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Alaska biologists are gearing up for a massive project: sampling about 15,000 wild birds across the state and looking for the arrival of H5N1 bird flu.

But domestic birds aren’t being ignored.

Last week, state veterinarian Bob Gerlach visited the Point MacKenzie Correctional Farm in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough to teach staff members how to swab chickens and turkeys, looking for the virus in birds raised to feed inmates. So far, H5N1 has not been found in North America, but many experts think the first sighting could be in Alaska because of the large influx of migratory birds from infected Asian countries.

The exact number of domestic birds raised here is unknown, but Gerlach said Alaska has a much smaller population than other states have. This smaller population, however, may be at higher risk for infection due to possible contact with migratory birds.

Gerlach has his eye on Point MacKenzie, one of the largest Alaska domestic bird operations. He and Point MacKenzie’s superintendent, Joe Schmidt, came up with a plan to train the farm’s safety officer to sample birds for avian flu and teach the inmates how to watch for dead birds nearby.

Point MacKenzie is a minimum-security facility with about 100 inmates who have proven good behavior, Schmidt said. All are men serving time on charges ranging from drunken driving to murder.

The facility is set up as a farm, teaching prisoners how to give back to the community and build a strong work ethic, Schmidt said. Prisoners tend to fields and animals. The farm receives about 600 chickens every month. They’re raised and slaughtered to provide meat for the prisoners. Point MacKenzie also has about 400 turkeys.

Butchering the birds instead of buying meat at the store saves money for the Department of Corrections, Schmidt said. The poultry and other butchered animals also feed inmates at other state correctional facilities.

"We do not distribute to the public at all, nor do we sell any product," Schmidt said.

He said using his prison as a bird flu test site makes sense because he has such a large flock of domestic birds, and wild birds that may carry the flu virus visit nearby fields. Since his inmates rely on their domestic birds for food, "I want them to feel safe," he said.

If H5N1 is found at Point MacKenzie, nearby families and farmers who raise domestic birds will be informed. If deadly strains of bird flu are confirmed among Point MacKenzie’s birds, the flock would be quarantined and possibly killed, Gerlach said.

Gerlach will train Point MacKenzie’s safety officer to swab the rectal areas of birds when they arrive at the farm and collect samples or whole birds if there’s any suspicious sickness or death. He’ll also study droppings from wild birds that visit the farm’s fields.

Gerlach works at the state’s new environmental health lab in Anchorage. That lab is seeking approval to do the preliminary H5N1 tests.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aadRE1PxXQsc&refer=asia


Human Genetics May Play a Role in Avian Flu Cases (Update1)

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Some people are more susceptible to bird flu than others, suggesting human genetics may play a role in the viral infection that's killed more than 100 people in the past three years, virologist Robert Webster said.

``There are a few humans that are extraordinarily sensitive,'' said Webster, 74, the Rosemary Thomas professor at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. ``This seems to be in families on the maternal side,'' he said in an interview in Singapore last week.

Scientists are trying to increase their understanding of the disease in humans and of the lethal H5N1 strain of avian influenza, which has the potential to evolve into a pandemic form that may kill millions of people.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 115 of 207 people known to have been infected since late 2003, the World Health Organization said on May 8. Some of the human cases involved multiple family members.

The human genome contains an estimated 30,000 genes. One hundred or more genes may be involved in the human response to influenza infection, Webster said.

``Which one matters for H5N1 more than another?'' Webster said. ``We don't know enough about cell biology, let alone enough about virology to put these two together.''

The number of humans infected by H5N1 has increased this year after 34 countries across three continents reported initial outbreaks in birds since February. In Asia, almost 200 million domestic fowl have died or been culled to contain the spread of H5N1, costing countries more than $10 billion, the World Bank said in January.

Family Members

This year, 39 fatalities have been reported, almost as many as the 41 deaths recorded in the whole of 2005. Cases in which multiple family members were infected occurred across Asia and Eastern Europe, including in Azerbaijan, Vietnam and Indonesia.

``The question of genetic susceptibility to H5N1 has certainly been raised in the past,'' said Maria Cheng, a WHO spokeswoman in Geneva. ``It may have some credence, given the millions of people that have likely been exposed to sick birds and the relatively small number of confirmed cases.''

Current data provides too little information to draw any firm conclusions, Cheng said.

``Hopefully, as we get more information once more sophisticated clinical networks are set up in countries with human bird flu cases, we will have information that helps us distinguish between exposure issues and host susceptibility factors,'' she said. ``Until then, this remains only a theory.''

More Lethal

Variants of the H5N1 virus have become progressively more lethal over the past eight years in experimentally infected chickens and mice, the WHO said in February.

The virus is also becoming more capable of causing disease in mammals, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta said in March.

``These are all worrying things,'' said Webster, who has been studying influenza for more than 40 years. ``This highly pathogenic virus has been about for 10 years now and it keeps magnifying. Some of my colleagues are saying if it was going to go human-to-human, it would have happened now. You don't know.''

Just released: "Flu in Maine" -- website ......looks very well done IMO:


http://www.maineflu.gov/

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060511/BUSINESS/605110362/1003


KFC stickers aim to soothe avian flu fears

By David Goetz
dgoetz@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal

Science hasn't found a vaccine for avian flu yet, but KFC is "inoculating" customers against fear of the potentially deadly virus with a quality assurance sticker on every bucket of Kentucky Fried Chicken.

The round stickers have "FOOD SAFETY ASSURANCE" in bold, blue lettering over a light blue checkmark under the image of Col. Harland Sanders. The words "rigorously inspected, thoroughly cooked, quality assured" circle the blue border.


The stickers don't mention avian flu and aren't part of the marketing plan parent company Yum! Brands Inc. has in case the flu reaches the United States, KFC spokeswoman Laurie Schalow said.

"We want to just reassure consumers before there is a crisis or hysteria here … that we do have quality chicken, it is cooked properly, and it is safe to eat."

The World Health Organization says there is no evidence the flu can spread to humans through cooked chicken or other poultry. While humans have caught the disease after contact with infected birds, it has not spread from one person to another.

Schalow equated the stickers with the "quality check" or "blue ribbon" labels found on many consumer products, but they are clearly aimed at heading off flu concerns.

There have been thousands of news reports on avian flu in the last six months, she said, "so it's topical for consumers. We're the largest national chicken chain, so we felt it was important to reassure our consumers that our products are safe."

James McCoy, senior analyst at marketing and consumer researcher Mintel International Group Ltd., wondered if consumers are sufficiently worried about chicken to justify raising the quality issue.

"It may end up working, it may be ignored. But they're running a risk," he said.

"If you put a quality assurance logo on it, suddenly people might say, 'Hold on a second, why are they doing that?'

"People might turn cynical and think, 'Well, is there really something wrong with the meat? Why didn't they have this on there before? Why are they suddenly drawing this to our attention?' "

Quality labeling has been effective in England, McCoy said, but that's because the country has had several food scares in recent years, including mad cow disease and a mistaken fear of salmonella in eggs.

Moreover, those labels came from joint efforts of the producers and included information about the sources of foods and where they had been on the distribution chain.

By going out on its own, KFC could be sticking its neck out, McCoy said. "It could really backfire, not just against KFC but against the whole poultry industry."

The National Chicken Council will leave it up to KFC to decide if the stickers are a good idea, said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the poultry trade group.

"Our objective is to make sure there's no flu in the bird to begin with," he said

$1,000 Fine or 30 days imprisonment to those who violate quarantine

House bill addresses bird flu
Health officials could levy higher fines​

BY PRENTISS FINDLAY AND DAVE MUNDAY
The Post and Courier


The House has passed a bill that says people violating state quarantine laws would face higher fines. That's a lot less dramatic than the barbed wire featured in a movie Tuesday night about avian flu turning into a global pandemic in humans, but the $1,000 fine, supporters say, is enough to grab people's attention.

The bill will increase the authority of public health agencies, such as the Department of Health and Environmental Control, should disaster hit the state.

Rep. Walton McLeod, D-Little Mountain, who co-sponsored the bill, said it was not directly intended to address the avian flu, but it could certainly address that and other communicable diseases.

"Our intention was not to do something fresh or novel or revolutionary," McLeod said. "Rather, it was to improve the stationary authority DHEC has had since the late 1800s."

The bill, which has been referred to the Senate Medical Affairs Committee, attempts to bring up to date the state's power to combat communicable disease, he said. It adds a $1,000 fine or 30 days imprisonment to those who violate quarantine orders by leaving isolation or entering restricted premises.

While not originally directed at the bird flu, the proposed legislation will put in place some protections, he said.

"The avian flu is something we are really not yet able to fully anticipate and predict," McLeod said.

The bill allows the state to accept volunteer health care providers from South Carolina or elsewhere.

The proposed legislation relieves the workers of any liability during trauma care in an emergency as long as action was not negligent or willful. It is part of the state's much larger health code.

Rep. Shirley Hinson, R-Goose Creek, said the stricter fines could help the public take quarantine laws more seriously, especially in regards to the bird flu.

"It seems to be a very serious disease we are looking at," she said. "It's death. If that's what it takes to get people's attention, I support it.

"Often we say that happens elsewhere. I don't think we should turn our heads and say that's not something we should deal with."

Rep. Wallace Scarborough, R-Charleston, said the proposed legislation needs to be seriously considered from a homeland security standpoint as well.

"We need to take a very close look at everything coming in and protecting our resources," he said. "It is important. If you are going to get anybody's attention, you have to raise the fines."

While the nation debates the validity of the feared pandemic, Scarborough said it's better to be cautious.

"You have to consider it harmful until you can rule it out," he said. "The jury is still out on bird flu. I have heard a lot of conflicting reports on it"

In Tuesday's movie, bird flu kills millions of people as a mutated form of the virus spreads like wildfire. Emergency services are overwhelmed, and bodies are bulldozed into mass graves and burned on giant funeral pyres. Survivors fight for food, water and medical care. There's even a grisly autopsy scene in which a doctor explains how a bird flu victim died. It's enough to make a viewer think death from bird flu is just around the corner.

While ABC offered a disclaimer at the beginning of the movie, saying it was fictionalizing the problem, the facts tell a dramatically different story than the film. There have been no reported cases of avian flu in the U.S., Canada and South America. That could change in the fall as birds begin migrating south from Canada and Alaska, said Dr. Mike Schmidt, professor and vice chair of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the Medical University of South Carolina.

Clemson University Extension Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture actively monitor wild bird populations for the presence of avian flu. In South Carolina, the major migratory flyways are along the coast, Schmidt said.

In its present form, the bird flu virus isn't much of a threat to people, but it can be transmitted if a person is exposed to high concentrations of the virus in blood or visceral fluid. That sort of thing could happen while slaughtering an infected chicken, he said.

"It's a pandemic in birds, not people," Schmidt said.

http://www.charleston.net/stories/?newsID=86299&section=localnews

Published online: 10 May 2006; | doi:10.1038/441137a

Avian flu and the New World​

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has not yet reached North and South America. What will happen when it does? Declan Butler and Jacqueline Ruttimann investigate.

The H5N1 virus once seemed a problem that was lurking in someone else's backyard farm. But since last summer, the lethal avian influenza virus has surged out of southeast Asia into Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Fifty-one countries — 36 this year alone — have now experienced outbreaks.

The New World is as yet untouched, but many experts consider it inevitable that the virus will reach North and South America. This area is home to the world's largest poultry exporters, Brazil and the United States. And although government and industry officials say they are well prepared for the arrival of H5N1, others argue that they have yet to take on board the full extent of the challenge.

"When H5N1 arrives," says Mark Cackler, the World Bank's agriculture manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, "it will concentrate minds wonderfully."

Trade, smuggling and migratory birds are all potential routes for H5N1 to reach the Americas (see page 138). How it arrives is ultimately less important than stopping a subsequent spread of the disease, says Juan Lubroth of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. And here there is no debate as to what causes spread, he adds: it's not migratory birds, but "human actions, trade and husbandry practices".

Experience in Asia and Europe provides best practices on controlling avian flu, says Jim Butler, director-general of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture in San Jose, Costa Rica. "We don't need to reinvent everything." The task for the Americas, he says, is more about "building consciousness" of the risks and existing best practices.

Such practices include setting up surveillance and diagnostic capacities that can quickly detect any initial outbreak. But despite all best efforts, some virus will always go undetected, so countries must also have policies in place to make their farming systems more resilient.

Such policies can be as simple as requiring the poultry industry to disinfect all material and people moving in and out of farms. Another is to reorganize national poultry industries into regional 'cells' that operate independently of one another, so that if one goes down with H5N1, the others do not.

France prepared by using both approaches, and so far the H5N1 found there has been stopped in its tracks. Turkey did neither well, and has suffered persistent outbreaks. The well-developed animal health services in the United States and Canada have implemented similar measures to those in France, and are widely expected to quickly contain any outbreak of H5N1.

Unlike regions of southeast Asia and Africa, where poultry live outdoors and mingle freely with each other and with wild birds, US flocks are highly concentrated in industrial farms, where birds are raised indoors, isolated from external contaminants. One potential weakness is the popular live markets in California and the northeastern states. In the northeast, these markets have sustained an avian flu virus of low pathogenicity, H7N2, since 1994. In the past, as many as 60% of birds sampled have carried flu viruses, although control measures have reduced the levels.

Such live markets "continue to be a major source of avian influenza viruses and a risk for introduction to commercial poultry operations". This is what David Swayne and David Suarez of the US agriculture department's main poultry research laboratory in Athens, Georgia, told an influential 2004 workshop on pandemic planning that was organized by the US National Academies.

South America is also preparing well, experts say, as it has decades of experience of handling other highly contagious diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease. Lubroth gives the continent good marks for "high awareness favouring quick detection and response".

Brazil's poultry industry is both larger and more complex than that in the United States. Backyard farms are common in the poor northeastern part of the country, and smallholdings are scattered throughout urban areas and along the Amazon. But its core production remains in large commercial farms, which are well aware of the economic risks of H5N1, says Lubroth. "If H5N1 entered," he predicts, "they would stamp it out quickly to preserve the main industry."

That view is overly optimistic, argues Cackler, who sits on the avian-flu taskforce for the World Bank. Many South American countries, he says, have only recently woken up to H5N1 as something they might need to worry about. He recalls speaking to the agriculture minister of "one to-be-unnamed country" last November, who "just didn't get it; H5N1 was nothing to worry about". Cackler met him again in January, after H5N1 had ripped across Europe. "This time, the guy got it."

Article brought to you by: Nature

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060508/full/441137a.html

Djibouti reports first human case of deadly bird flu in east Africa ​

http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=20707

DJIBOUTI 11/05/2006 19:17

The tiny Red Sea state of Djibouti reported east Africa's first human case of the deadly H5N1 deadly bird flu strain and said some chickens were also infected.

The health ministry said that virology tests from samples of an infected person taken last month were positive for the virulent strain of the flu virus, which had also affected three domestic fowl.

"Tests from a person suffering from flu-like symptoms on April 27 were positive for the disease," it said. "Three domestic hens were also affected by the virus."

The ministry said the tests were carried out with the collaboration of the World Health Organisation at a laboratory in Cairo.

Djibouti is the first country in east Africa to report the appearance of the H5N1 virus in either birds or humans and the eighth on the African continent to find the strain in birds.

Egypt is the only other country in Africa where people have been infected by the disease, of whom five have died.

Africa

Six African Countries Affected By Bird Flu ​

Standard Times (Freetown)
NEWS
May 9, 2006
Posted to the web May 11, 2006

By Saidu Kamara


The outbreak of the Avian Influenza Epidemic has been described as a global concern especially as six countries in Africa have now been affected.

This concern was raised by the Director General of Medical Services, Dr. Noah Conteh while addressing health care providers during a sensitization workshop on the Avian Influenza at the Western Area District Health Office in Cline Town.

The recent outbreak of bird flu occurred in four West African countries including Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria.

He told the participants that the disease can spread from country to country through international trade in live poultry products, adding that the disease is now seen affecting humans.

The Director General of Medical Services stressed the need for the strengthening of our surveillance system as well as ensuring that the total ban on the importation of poultry and its products from all countries are strictly adhere to.

Alhassan Sesay pointed out that government has done a lot to prepare for any eventual outbreak citing the establishment of a national multisectorial task force to respond to the threat of Avian Influenza.

He added that sensitization have started through seminars and the media as well as the development of a National Plan of Action for the prevention and control of the Avian Influenza.

At the district level Dr. Sesay maintained that a District Task Force has been set up with the responsibility to monitor all entry points and borders as well as surveillance of migratory birds and their products.

The Acting Coordinator of the Avian Influenza Secretariat, Mr. Lansana Conteh said the secretariat was set up to respond to any threat of bird flu outbreak as well as coordinating the activities and disseminating recent developments about the Avian Influenza.

The W.A. District Medical Officer, Dr. Amara Jambai who chaired the ceremony appealed to participations to take the training seriously as well as disseminate correct information acquired during the deliberations to their respective communities.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200605110577.html

WHO: Baby in Djibouti diagnosed with bird flu​

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/africa/05/11/djbouti.birdflu.ap/

Thursday, May 11, 2006 Posted: 1902 GMT (0302 HKT)

GENEVA, Switzerland (AP) -- The World Health Organization said Thursday that a baby in Djibouti has contracted the H5N1 virus, the country's first human case of bird flu.

"I believe the person is still alive. It's a 2-year-old girl," WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told The Associated Press in Geneva. He said the girl was confirmed as H5N1 positive by the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU-3) in Cairo, but could not provide any further details.

The Djibouti government confirmed the human case in the capital and said three chickens also had been infected with the virus.

"Djibouti thus becomes the first country in the Horn of Africa to have detected a human case and bird cases of H5N1," the government said on the official Djiboutian Information Agency web site.

It was not clear from the government statement whether the case of the chickens was related to the human case.

It also did not provide any details on the health of the girl, saying only that she was tested after showing flu symptoms on April 27.

The Health Ministry said the infection occurred despite a heightened alert, but that the government would further increase surveillance of the disease. It told citizens to keep away from any birds showing symptoms of sickness.

Djibouti is now the 10th country where a person has been infected with the deadly virus. At least 207 people have contracted the disease globally and 115 have died over the last three years, according to the U.N. health agency. Virtually all the individuals were exposed to the disease in poultry.

As of April 27, there had been no reports of H5N1 in poultry or wild fowl in Djibouti, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health.

Health experts fear the bird flu virus could mutate into a form easily spread among people, potentially sparking a pandemic.

BREWER

Thank ALL of you guys for the commitment to these posts on H5N1. I am sure I can thank you all for the 1000's of us that review the articles perhaps without thanking 'you' as often as we should. GREAT JOB!

<table width="100%" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" bordercolor="#000000" height="43"><tr><td bgcolor="D08153"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="4"><b><font size="4" color="#FFFFFF">Telework could help in pandemic but US not ready</font></b></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f5f5dc" height="2"><div align="left"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="4"><b><font size="2">
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N11258733.htm</B>

WASHINGTON, May 11 (Reuters) - If a flu pandemic kept 40 percent of the workforce away from the office, telecommuting could help keep governments offices and many businesses running -- but hardly anybody is properly set up to do this, experts told the U.S. Congress on Thursday.

A report from the Government Accountability Office found that only nine of 23 federal agencies had plans in place for key staff to work from home, via computer, during a pandemic.

"One reason for the low levels of preparations reported is that FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) has not provided specific guidance on preparations needed to use telework during emergencies," the GAO report reads.

Only a few of the agencies documented that they had made the needed preparations to effectively use telework during an event, GAO Comptroller General David Walker told a hearing of the House Government Reform Committee.

"None of the 23 agencies demonstrated that it could ensure adequate technological capacity to allow personnel to telework during an emergency," Walker said.

The H5N1 avian flu virus has spread rapidly in recent months, leaving Asia and moving into birds across Europe and into Africa. It does not yet easily infect people, but it has made 205 seriously ill and killed 115 of them.

A few mutations could turn this virus into a pandemic strain that would pass easily from person to person and spread around the world in weeks or months.

Experts agree that at the peak of the pandemic, 40 percent of workers could be unable to leave home, either because they are ill, caring for someone who is ill, caring for children because schools would be closed, or simply afraid.

Many jobs can be done via computer, telephone or teleconference and U.S. agencies have been asked to be ready to do this.

YOU CAN'T JUST DIAL UP

But it requires planning, said Dr. Jeffrey Runge, acting under secretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security.

"It is one thing to say we are all going to use the Internet for work," Runge told the hearing. But there are fears that Internet access could be overwhelmed if millions of workers all try to use limited bandwidth at the same time.

"It turns out to be quite a more complex problem than saying, 'guys go home and log on'," Runge said.

Linda Springer, Director of the Office of Personnel Management said one agency needed to be put in charge of coordinating this, and said rehearsing telework plans was essential.

"Testing is just a critical part of contingency planning," Springer told the hearing.

"Under an emergency, particularly a pandemic, you might have a lot more people teleworking than normal. It is important to make sure you have the technological capacity to do this, you have the software licenses to do this. You don't know what you don't know."

Paul Kurtz, executive director of the Cyber Security Industry Alliance, said no one had evaluated the total capacity of the Internet's infrastructure.

"We simply don't know about what the impact would be if, for example, even half the 60,000-plus employees of the Department of Health and Human Services -- who help coordinate the entire national health care system -- were to attempt to work off-site," Kurtz said.

And, he said, agencies may have been reluctant to allow employees to telework up to now because it would save them money that would have to be returned to the Treasury.

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Link to tomorrows (5/12) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=197090