03/02 | Daily Bird Flu Thread: Bird flu spreading faster, says WHO

PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?p=1764325

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Iraq
(see preliminary report)

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Niger
o Nigeria

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina (H5)
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o France
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Romania
o Russia
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Switzerland (H5)
o Turkey
o Ukraine

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran

* South Asia:
o India
o Kazakhstan

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web site.

Updated March 1, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm#animals

:vik:

PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Bird flu spreading faster, says WHO

28/02/2006- The deadly bird fu strain H5N1 has spread to 17 new countries in February alone, says the World Health Organisation, re-iterating to consumers that poultry is still safe to eat.

New figures from the World Health Organisation (WHO) show the virus has spread to birds in countries previously unaffected in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East this month.

The new cases show how the disease is capable of spreading rapidly along migratory lines. Yet, the WHO re-iterated that consumers could not be affected through food as long as “poultry products are safely handled and properly cooked”.

The message echoes that given by France’s agriculture ministry last week after tests confirmed that the disease had arrived at one the country’s domestic turkey farms.

Poultry consumption in France has fallen by around 30 per cent, while Japan and Hong Kong have already banned the import of French poultry.

The outbreak is particularly threatening for France as the European Union’s largest poultry producer. The country's poultry export market is worth €983m per year.

French authorities began vaccinating around 900,000 free-range ducks and geese in the high-risk departments of Landes, Loire-Atlantique and Vendée this Monday, after winning a fiery debate to do so at the European Commission last week.

Others, however, have continued to question whether vaccination was the right thing to do at this time.

UK environment secretary Margaret Beckett yesterday refused to rule out vaccinating birds in Britain, though said there were still question marks over how effective it would be in preventing the disease.

Birds must be vaccinated for a second time, three weeks after their first dose, for the drugs to work.

Vaccinations in France have been followed up with strict controls on movement. Vaccinated birds can only be moved to other vaccinated holdings, to holdings where there is complete separation of vaccinated and non-vaccinated birds, or to a slaughterhouse for immediate slaughter.

European Commission proposals published last December state that vaccinated live poultry, their hatching eggs and day-old chicks should not be exported or moved to another member state or third country.

Fresh meat and meat products from the vaccinated poultry can be marketed in the EU and dispatched to third countries, provided it comes from approved holdings. The flock from which the meat originates must have been inspected by a vet 48 hours prior to slaughter.

http://www.foodproductiondaily.com/news/printNewsBis.asp?id=66117

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PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Age Distribution of Human H5N1 Cases

10.2.2006

An analysis of demographic data published by WHO shows the following age distribution of human H5N1 influenza cases (n=116). 50% of cases were 16 years or younger; 75% of cases were 29 years or younger; 90% of cases were 39 years or younger. Most patients were born after 1968.

http://influenzareport.com/ir/figures/ad060210.htm

PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Indonesia

'Govt waited for people to die'

March 02, 2006

Two Jakarta residents died this month of bird flu, bringing the city's death toll to nine. The city administration has only carried out limited culling of ducks and chickens. The Jakarta Post asked people in the city about the issue.

Grisilde Papilaja, 52, works in Kuningan, South Jakarta. She lives with her children in Cilandak, South Jakarta:

Bird flu is a scary disease. It is nearly as dangerous as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). My husband, who lives in Singapore, says that, if the virus mutated, our family would be in the eye of the storm.

I am careful to check the hygiene standards of an establishment before I eat there.

I think the government has been slow to act. It waited for people to die before it did anything. Other countries carried out mass culls straightaway, when their first birds tested positive.

I am not scared to eat chicken, so long as it is cooked well.

Marcia Estrelita Gunadi, 30, is a housewife who lives in Pamulang:

I keep myself up to date on the bird flu issue. I still eat chicken but have always been stricter about what my two girls eat.

In any case, they are both allergic to chicken.

At home I take preventative measures. I remove bird nests from our yard and wash away any droppings.

I'm in constant fear my girls will get too close to those birds.

-- The Jakarta Post

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060301.G04&irec=5

:vik:

Seabird · Mar 1, 2006

41. Up from 32 yesterday.

PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Bahamas

Bird Flu Suspected in Bahamas?

Recombinomics Commentary
March 1, 2006

Experts probed the unusual deaths of 14 birds on a southern Bahamian island to determine whether they marked the first cases of bird flu in the Americas.

The dead birds were found by a park warden in a wildlife reserve on Great Inagua, which has a population of about 50,000 flamingos and a large lake popular with migrating birds.

Ten flamingos, three roseate spoonbills and a cormorant were found dead in the park, authorities said.

The linkage of the dead birds to migrating birds is cause for concern. Although no H5N! has been reported in the Americas, there is indirect evidence suggesting H5N1 may have entered northeast Canada over the summer.

In the summer of 2005 the H5N1 in southern Siberia was widely reported, However, in August there were reports of new H5N1 infections north of the band of prior infections, suggesting H5N1 was migrating south from northern Siberia. Northern Siberia is in the East Atlantic Flyway and the north portion connects northern Siberia, northern Europe, and northeastern Canada.

H5N1 in northern Siberia would also explain the sudden rise in reported infections in western Europe due to wintering of birds from northern Siberia,.

H5N1 in the north would also explain the presence of North American polymorphisms in H5N1 in Astrakhan. H5N1 in northern Canada would also spread H5N1 into the Atlantic Americas Flyway, which could bring H5N1 to the Bahamas.

H5N1 in the Bahamas would suggest H5N1 is widespread in the eastern portion of the United States. Although poultry deaths have not been reported, there have been bird die-offs, which may involve additional H5N1 infections.

Updates on the testing in the Bahamas and CDC would be useful.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03010601/H5N1_Bahamas.html

:vik:

PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Hungary

[March 01, 2006]

More dead birds test positive for bird flu in Hungary

(Comtex Community Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)BUDAPEST, Mar 1, 2006 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- Dead birds found at four different locations in Hungary have tested positive for the bird flu virus, government spokesman Andras Batiz said Wednesday.

Batiz added that precautionary measures had been taken in Szazhalombatta, Dunaszentbenedek and Szentendre, while in Nagybaracska, where dead birds had been found earlier, the quarantine was underway.

Hungarian experts said the death of the birds, including a seagull, a wild duck and two swans, was caused by the deadly H5N1 strain. But official results are to be issued by the European reference laboratory in Weybridge, Britain.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/03/01/1422081.htm

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PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Bird Flu Flying Toward US
By J. Grant Swank, Jr.
Mar 2, 2006

The pandemic could strike at any time. If it does, the US is not prepared. Nor is any other nation prepared. If the bird flu remains only within lower animals, humans could go unscathed. But if the virus mutates to humans, then billions could die.

That would set loose pandemonium: clinics deluged, emergency rooms overwhelmed, doctors and nurses in short supply, scrambles for supposed help-vaccines, industry shut down due to employees sick, educational systems likewise shut down and so forth.

Society as we know it could come to an uneasy, unpredictable halt.

Biblical scholars research the divine writ for prophetic passages, particularly those containing the words of Jesus Christ. He prophesied that in the End Times there would be "pestilence." Could bird flu pandemic include that? It could.

Then there are skeptics who say that epidemics have killed millions before. It goes in cycles. So this could be just another one of those. And that could very well be true from the secular perspective.

However, biblical students understand that with the increase of sin, as Jesus predicated would occur in the End Times, God's wrath could be spilled out on a wayward humanity. That could have been His wrath in the past. His wrath could be spilled out again in the future.

Given: There is an increase of sin in all sorts of forms taking place globally.

Therefore, those in science and religion are taking a close look at the newsfeeds regarding bird flu. The latest is from US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt. He has been a voice to the world cautioning the planet about bird flu, traveling far and wide to conduct seminars and conferences.

According to Reuters' Richard Cowan: "In testimony to a congressional panel on his agency's budget for combating a possible avian flu outbreak among humans, Leavitt told senators that no one knows when or if the virus will pose a threat to people. But, he said, 'it's just a matter of time -- it may be very soon' when wild birds and possibly poultry flocks contract the disease."

One factor that is amazing to me is that today's preachers by and large have sidelined this topic in their preaching. The pulpit is not dealing with this potential disaster. There is little caution given to congregations let alone explaining the possibility of it being a divine message. There are few warnings related to soul preparation for a pandemic.

Why?

Because many clergy are not all that aware of the bird flu specifics. They then rely on their usual sermonic themes. Instead, there is a needed a teaching of this subject from the pulpit and teaching lecterns to the congregations which gather every seven days. The clergy have a captive audience; yet they are not taking advantage of presenting to their listeners the biblical predictions as related to End Times, bird flu specifically.

There is a dryness within the clergy related to biblical prophecy. Many of the younger pastors did not have studies in this regard in their seminaries. Especially the theologically liberal clergy do not regard biblical prophecy as necessarily accurate historically; therefore, they discount it altogether.

Evangelicals are the clergy who believe the Bible to be the Word of God—divine revelation. However, even they are not all that well informed on biblical prophetic detail. That is sad for the laity need to learn how to relate daily news, particularly bird flu, for example, to their daily devotions from the Bible.

"The H5N1 disease so far has killed 94 people in seven countries.

"'It could be the disaster of our time. Two billion dollars is not enough,' North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad, the senior Democrat on the committee, told Leavitt.

"Conrad was referring the $2.3 billion in additional emergency funds the Bush administration has requested from Congress. Late last year, Congress approved a first injection of more than $3 billion in emergency money.

"Recently, the animal disease has been found in western Europe and worries escalated this week when German authorities said avian flu may have jumped species and killed a cat."

Every new surge westward should cause increased awareness of what could be. How are the churches prepared for this? How do Christian laypersons understand such a distress in light of God's wisdom, comfort and End Times fulfillment? How do clergy intend on comforting their parishioners when the pandemic hits and they have not preached on the subject in these preparatory months?

"'In the first six months of a pandemic we are dependent on basic public health, social distancing; every business, every school, every church, every county to have a plan,' Leavitt said, adding, 'We are overdue (for a pandemic) and under-protected, but we are moving with dispatch.'"

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/health/article_2128714.shtml

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PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Bird flu likely in US flocks soon: Health Secretary

March 1, 2006

WASHINGTON - The lethal avian flu that is spreading rapidly around the world could soon infect wild birds and domesticated flocks in the United States, US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said on Wednesday.

In testimony to a congressional panel on his agency's budget for combating a possible avian flu outbreak among humans, Leavitt told senators that no one knows when or if the virus will pose a threat to people. But, he said, "it's just a matter of time -- it may be very soon" when wild birds and possibly poultry flocks contract the disease.

Leavitt said that infection of birds alone in the United States with the H5N1 virus would not create a public health emergency. Such an emergency would occur if the disease mutated so that it became easily transferred from human to human.

The H5N1 disease so far has killed 94 people in seven countries.

Nevertheless, Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee criticized the Bush administration's preparedness, saying not enough federal funds were being allocated for vaccine production, stockpiling other medical supplies, disease detection and community readiness.

"It could be the disaster of our time. Two billion dollars is not enough," North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad, the senior Democrat on the committee, told Leavitt.

Conrad was referring the $2.3 billion in additional emergency funds the Bush administration has requested from Congress. Late last year, Congress approved a first injection of more than $3 billion in emergency money.

While US poultry flocks have suffered from isolated cases of highly contagious avian flu, they have not yet been hit by the virulent H5N1 strain that has killed or led to the culling of about 200 million birds, mostly in Asia, since late 2003.

Recently, the animal disease has been found in western Europe and worries escalated this week when German authorities said avian flu may have jumped species and killed a cat.

Contact with sick birds

So far, human fatalities have largely been limited to people who have had close contact with sick birds.

Leavitt told the committee that by the end of this year, the United States will have about 20 million doses of anti-viral drugs, mostly Tamiflu, stockpiled.

But the development of a vaccine is three to five years away, Leavitt said. He downplayed chances that this timetable could be accelerated significantly and added that even with vaccine technology, it would take drug companies six months after the start of a pandemic to produce an effective one.

"In the first six months of a pandemic we are dependent on basic public health, social distancing; every business, every school, every church, every county to have a plan," Leavitt said, adding, "We are overdue (for a pandemic) and under-protected, but we are moving with dispatch."

Leavitt also was skeptical that the federal government could provide all localities with the full arsenal of basic medical equipment, such as ventilators, masks, gauze and gloves, needed during a pandemic. That surprised Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, who said he had thought the billions of dollars being spent would cover such stockpiles.

Instead, Leavitt put the responsibility of local preparedness mostly with local officials.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=31498

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PCViking · Mar 1, 2006

Euro-Status

FACTBOX - Bird Flu in Europe

March 1 - Switzerland has confirmed its first case of the deadly H5N1 avian flu strain in a bird found last week in Geneva, the Federal Veterinary Office said on Wednesday.

Following is the latest information about the status of bird flu and some measures taken in Europe:

AUSTRIA - Austria confirmed H5N1 in two chickens and three ducks in an animal sanctuary in Graz.

BOSNIA - Bosnia said tests had confirmed its first case of H5N1 in two swans. Bosnia has banned hunting wild fowl, ordered all poultry kept indoors.

BULGARIA - Bulgaria announced H5N1 found in a wild swan in wetland near Romania. On Feb 16, the EU banned imports of poultry and products from Bulgaria.

CROATIA - Croatia confirmed H5N1 on a dead swan on Ciovo island, off the largest coastal city of Split. A second bird has been found with H5 near Trogir in the southern Adriatic. More tests were being carried out.

FRANCE - France, Europe's biggest poultry producer, has confirmed the first outbreak of H5N1 at a farm in the European Union. The news has prompted 43 countries to announce a partial or total embargo on poultry imports from France.

GERMANY - Germans in areas hit by bird flu have been told to keep their cats indoors and their dogs leashed after the discovery of a dead cat infected with H5N1.

- More than 100 wild birds, mostly on the Baltic island of Ruegen, have tested positive for H5N1 since it first reached Germany on Feb 14. Germany has a ban on poultry outdoors.

GREECE - Greece has reported 17 cases of H5N1 in the country. Poultry sales have collapsed.

HUNGARY - Hungary confirmed new cases of bird flu - yet to be confirmed as H5N1 - in a dead mallard and a gull found near Budapest, and in two dead swans in the south. It has confirmed eight cases of H5N1.

ITALY - Italian poultry producers said demand for chicken meat had plummeted by 70 percent since news that H5N1 virus had been found in swans in the south of the country.

NETHERLANDS - The Netherlands has secured EU approval to vaccinate backyard poultry and free-range laying hens, most at risk of contact with wild birds, throughout the country. It has also extended its order to keep poultry indoors to the whole country. NORWAY - Norway ordered chickens and turkeys kept indoors.

ROMANIA - Romania said it had found new cases of H5N1 in domestic birds in the village of Topalu, in the south-east. Avian flu has been detected in 35 villages and a small Black Sea resort across the country.

RUSSIA - Bird flu has been registered in wild fowl in six regions of southern Russia and in domestic fowl in four of these regions. More than half a million chickens were culled in Russia this year after new cases of H5N1 were discovered in domestic fowl in Dagestan.

SLOVAKIA - Slovakia's first cases of H5N1 have been confirmed by tests on two birds.

SLOVENIA - The number of wild birds with H5N1 virus found in the country rose to 20 after the virus was detected in another two swans. So far H5N1 avian influenza virus was found in 19 swans and 1 grey heron. All birds were found near the city of Maribor in northeastern Slovenia close to the Austrian border.

SWEDEN - Sweden said it had detected its first cases of an aggressive form of bird flu, likely to be confirmed as H5N1 in two wild birds near the southeastern port of Oskarshamn. Sweden has ordered farmers to keep chickens and turkeys indoors.

SWITZERLAND - Switzerland confirmed its first case of H5N1 in a bird found in Geneva. Switzerland has ordered a nationwide poultry lock-up.

TURKEY - Of a total 106 locations around Turkey where bird flu has been confirmed since late December, 66 are still under quarantine. 2.27 million poultry have been culled to date.

UKRAINE - Ukraine has begun testing several types of vaccine for H5N1 but will take no decision on mass vaccination of poultry pending the results. More than 200,000 birds have been destroyed in Ukraine since H5N1 was discovered last year.

Story Date: 2/3/2006

http://www.planetark.com/avantgo/dailynewsstory.cfm?newsid=35417

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JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Bahamas Bird Flu Testing Prompts U.S. to Triple Drug Stockpile

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aaCYriY2He1s&refer=top_world_news

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. more than tripled its national flu medication stockpiles as the Bahamas, 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Florida, tested whether dead birds found there carried the Western Hemisphere's first cases of avian influenza.

The U.S. government yesterday ordered 12.4 million courses of the flu treatment Tamiflu from Roche Holding AG and 1.75 million of Relenza from GlaxoSmithKline Plc, raising the country's National Strategic Stockpile to almost 20 million courses of treatment, the Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said.

China may have culled about 6,000 chickens on a farm in the southern province of Guangdong after as many died of an undetermined cause. China's Ministry of Agriculture ordered the farm, near the city of Guangzhou, to destroy all its remaining chickens while an investigation takes place, the Hong Kong-based newspaper Apple Daily reported today. The outbreak would be China's second in poultry since the beginning of February.

Bird flu has spread, most likely through the movement of migratory birds as winter ends, to at least 14 countries since the beginning of February. The H5N1 bird virus has been found in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. Test results from the Bahamian birds may be ready in four days.

The virus has infected 174 people since late 2003, mainly through contact with birds. At least 94 of those patients have died, and researchers say if H5N1 gains the ability to spread quickly among people it could touch off a lethal, worldwide epidemic, or pandemic.

Health Concern

``The recent appearance of the virus in birds in a rapidly growing number of countries is of public health concern, as it expands opportunities for human exposures and infections to occur,'' the World Health Organization said on its Web site.

President George W. Bush's pandemic readiness plan calls for health officials to buy enough Tamiflu to treat one in four Americans, or about 75 million people.

Canadian food authorities quarantined the eight Quebec poultry farms that imported live ducks and hatching eggs from France, and collected samples from the farms for testing, the Canadian Press reported yesterday, citing the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

Canada has banned all live birds from France, the first European Union country to find bird flu, the Press said.

German health authorities last weekend found the body of a bird flu-infected cat on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen, where the country's first cases of the virus were detected. There is no evidence that bird flu infections in domestic cats aid the spread of H5N1 to humans, the WHO said.

An Indonesian boy hospitalized with bird flu symptoms died, doctors in Jakarta said yesterday.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

US govt buys 2m doses of Biota's Relenza

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busin...-Biotas-Relenza/2006/03/02/1141191779976.html

March 2, 2006 - 3:59PM

Bird flu drug developer Biota Holdings Ltd says the US government has ordered almost two million doses of its influenza drug Relenza.

Biota says the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had ordered 1.75 million courses of the anti-viral drug from global pharmaceutical giant, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

Biota licenses Relenza to GSK.

The company said HHS secretary Mike Leavitt announced the order as part of preventative measures being taken by the government in the event of a pandemic of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, including a rival drug - Tamiflu - made by Roche.

The US has already stockpiled 5.5 million courses of antiviral drugs.

"Having a stockpile of drugs is an important part of our pandemic influenza preparedness plan," Mr Leavitt said.

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Florida

Quarantines envisioned if bird flu hits county

By Bill Douthat
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 02, 2006
<A href="http://www.palmbeachpost.com/pbccentral/content/local_news/epaper/2006/03/02/s1a_birdflu_0302.html">www.palmbeachpost.com</a></center>
County health officials are quietly drafting a plan to combat the potential spread of bird flu that includes mass distribution of antiviral drugs, house-to-house quarantines and closing of shopping malls and sports stadiums.

A surge of the influenza virus could overwhelm local hospitals and require hurricane shelters to be used as temporary health clinics, according to the plan being written by the Palm Beach County Health Department. 

Nearly 7,000 people may need hospitalization if the bird flu virus infects 35 percent of the county's residents, according to the document. At that infection rate, the virus could kill from 1,041 to 2,207 county residents.

Because the virus possibly could be spread by contact or through coughs, the health department likely would advise the public to observe "social distancing." That means no handshakes or hugs and staying at least 6 feet away from others.

The 31-page plan has been shared with key emergency management officials but has not been widely distributed to city officials or emergency response agencies. The plan was released this week after a request from The Palm Beach Post. It had been considered confidential even though the Miami-Dade County Health Department has posted its similar plan on its public Web site.

"We're still in the process of getting this out to everybody," said Tim O'Connor, spokesman for the Palm Beach County Health Department. "It's a work in progress."

Dr. Jean Malecki, the health department's director, said there is no immediate threat to the public because there have been no reports of human-to-human transmissions anywhere the world.

"Right now, the threat is the regular flu," Malecki said. "The best message is that people should get their flu shots."

Calls for meetings, planning

The drafting of the plan behind closed doors has left some city officials worried that not enough planning is under way to respond to a major outbreak of bird flu here.

Lantana's town manager, Michael Bornstein, sent an urgent e-mail to the county health department last week expressing frustration that local planning does not measure up to the seriousness of the threat.

"We should have been meeting months earlier to identify key issues and determine which ones need to be addressed," Bornstein wrote. "However, nothing has happened, and bird populations around the globe are becoming infected."

Bornstein had attended a regional conference that addressed the potential social and economic disorder that could face communities stricken with bird flu.

Patrick Morris, special operations chief for West Palm Beach Fire-Rescue, agreed that more countywide planning and public education is needed. Morris, who attended the same Indian River Community College conference as Bornstein, said he's not seen a copy of the health department's plan.

"The biggest misnomer is the name bird flu," Morris said. "If they called it the plague, maybe people would respond differently. If you look at the numbers, it's killing over half the people it infects."

Of the 173 humans who have contracted the H5N1 strain of the virus, 93 have died, according to the World Health Organization. The outbreaks began in Southeast Asia in mid-2003 and have spread to Africa and Europe. The deaths have been linked to direct contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the virus could mutate and be spread from human to human.

U.S. health officials say bird flu, which could evolve into a pandemic, so named because of its global reach, has a high probability of eventually making it to the United States. But so far the strain has not reached the U.S. or anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere.

"It's kind of a nebulous thing because you don't know when that mutation is going to occur," Morris said. "If it occurs next week, it's going to be a problem."

Bornstein said better communication is needed.

"I'm sure the health department is fulfilling their part of the responsibility," Bornstein said this week. "But the cities and the county need to be coordinated somehow." He said cities need to know what supplies they should stockpile, how quarantines would affect tourists and boaters and how food would be distributed if stores were shut down.

Some law enforcement officials are concerned that the health department's policy of voluntary quarantines in neighborhoods with a surge of influenza may not go far enough.

"During the hurricanes we have people intentionally violating the curfews," Lantana Police Chief Rick Lincoln said. "I don't expect this to be any different."

While hurricane curfews expire after a few days, an influenza quarantine could last weeks. Adding to the security concerns is a handwritten note in the health department's plan that says up to 80 percent of residents may believe they have symptoms and rush needlessly to hospitals or clinics in search of medicine.

Lincoln is heading a pandemic committee being formed by the Law Enforcement Planning Council, a countywide group of law enforcement executives.

"It's a good idea for us to keep closer tabs on what's occurring so that we can make decisions," Lincoln said.

Although not spelled out in its response plan, the health department has the authority under state law to call in police to handle people who refuse to stay indoors and observe the quarantine. Violators could be arrested and taken to quarantine detention facilities.

The state Department of Health has sent to counties a packet of quarantine regulations that includes copies of quarantine detention orders that can be issued to violators by local health departments.

Palm Beach County may be more susceptible to bird flu deaths because the over-65 population is considered high-risk. "We have well over a quarter of a million people that meet that criteria," O'Connor said.

No local drug stockpile

Like most parts of the country, Palm Beach County has no stockpiles of antiviral drugs to treat those who fall ill, although emergency managers said federal stockpiles can be shipped within six to eight hours. But warehousing vaccines to prevent infections may not help because the exact makeup of the virus would not be known until it mutates to a form that passes from human to human, O'Connor said. Developing a vaccine specific to the strain that emerges in human-to-human contact could take about six months, he said.

The health department plans a major distribution of antiviral drugs in the event of a local outbreak of bird flu. More than 20 local distribution sites would be opened, with the initial medications going to police and fire first-responders, health workers and public service workers who would need to keep water and sanitation systems functioning.

Those key workers, including their families, number about 300,000, O'Connor said.

Bornstein said the county's planning should address every possible scenario, including "worst case."

"Hopefully it will be like Y2K 2000," he said, referring to the doomsday theory that computers would crash as the year 1999 ended. "We'll prepare for it and hope nothing will happen."

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Israeli Product "Sambucol" Effective Against Avian Flu

18:14 Feb 28, '06 / 30 Shevat 5766
<A href="http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=99387">www.israelnn.com</a></center>
(IsraelNN.com) Retroscreen Virology, a medical research institute subsidiary of Queen Mary College, University of London, has announced that an Israeli medical preparation, Sambucol, reduced the quantity of cells infected with the avian flu virus by 99%, compared with a control group not treated with the virus. So reports Globes.

Another clinical trial on the product, developed by Razei Bar Industries, is currently underway at the Hadassah Medical Center in Ein Karem.

Sambucol was found to be effective at significantly neutralizing the infectivity of the virus in cell cultures. These results were presented during the International Conference on Bird Flu: “The First Pandemic of the 21st Century. A Central Role for Antivirals,” held at St. Bartholomew’s Hospital on January 19-20, 2006.

For research information please visit Retroscreen Virology Ltd.
and Razei Bar Industries.

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>'Military-style' flu network call

March 01 2006
<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4763224.stm">news.bbc.co.uk</a></center>
Wild birds, including swans, have been hit by avian flu
A military-style surveillance network should be set up in developing countries to identify early signs of a human flu pandemic, US doctors say.
The labs should be modelled on ones set up after World War II, they add.

The call, by US military doctors, is made in an article published in the journal Nature. 

In addition, UK scientists are to investigate if there are gaps in the scientific understanding of flu and how it spreads across the world.

What we want to be sure of is that we use as much expertise as possible to identify any gaps in our understanding

Sir John Skehel, Medical Research Council

The doctors want to see a network of rapid-response laboratories set up based on US Naval Medical Research Units (NAMRUs), which were put in place after WWII to protect American service men and women from infectious diseases overseas.

The doctors from the US Department of Defence Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System have since been working with countries and the World Health Organization (WHO), and have made important contributions to infection control strategies as well the development of vaccines and treatments.

But only a few such labs still operate, with many - such as those in Panama, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Congo, Uganda, Ethiopia and Malaysia closing.

The American doctors, led by Dr Jean-Paul Chretien and Dr David Blazes, argue that a new network of state-of-the art laboratories mirroring the NAMRU model is now urgently needed.

These would support the existing work of the World Health Organization and regional collaborating centres.

It is hoped they would pick up the earliest signs of human-to-human transmission of a pandemic flu strain, which could occur in a very rural area.

Writing in Nature, they said: "The world needs such laboratories now, more than ever, as platforms for sustained epidemic detection and response - for avian influenza, and as-yet unknown diseases.

"The time has come to build on their experience and create a new generation of multilateral, WHO-aligned laboratories as a front-line of defence against future pandemics."

'More weapons'

In a separate development, the Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences is to look at the science which has informed policy development and planning in the UK for what would happen in a flu pandemic, particularly in relation to the avian flu virus H5N1.

It will examine if there are other areas of science, or other pieces of specific research, which can inform such policies and plans for the immediate future and in the longer term.

Particular areas to be examined include whether it would be possible to develop new drugs to give doctors more weapons in the armoury against flu, and if it would be feasible to develop a vaccine which was effective against various strains of flu.

Part of the concern over a flu pandemic is that an effective vaccine could not be developed until a strain which could spread between people emerged.

It will also look at whether scientific 'modelling', designed to show how flu might spread across the world, could be improved - perhaps with information from other areas of science.

Sir John Skehel, director of the National Institute for Medical Research for the Medical Research Council, who is leading the study, said: "What we want to be sure of is that we use as much expertise as possible to identify any gaps in our understanding."

The academies will publish their report in the summer.

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>2 siblings die of suspected bird flu in Indonesia

<A href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/02/content_4247469.htm">www.chinaview.cn </a>
2006-03-02 13:28:07 </center>
JAKARTA, March 2 (Xinhuanet) -- Two children of the same family died recently of suspected bird flu virus at a hospital in Indonesia's Central Java province, a report said Thursday.

Hanif Cahya Fitri, 12, died at the Moewardi Hospital in the town of Solo late Wednesday, one day after her brother Nandya Kurniawan, 10, passed away at the same hospital, reported Detikcomnews website. 

Doctors said the two siblings had developed bird flu symptoms like respiratory problems and high fever.

They had been hospitalized for one week, it said.

Indonesia now ranks second in global casualties caused by the avian influenza. The World Health Organization has confirmed 24 bird flu fatalities in the country. Enditem

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>[March 01, 2006]

Brace for avian flu, Recto warns

<A href="http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-brace-avian-flu-recto-warns-/2006/03/01/1420629.htm">www.tmcnet.com</a></center>
(Manila Standard Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)Senator Ralph Recto yesterday warned of another threat to the country.

The threat comes from migratory birds and it could be equally if not more devastating than the coup plots to oust the administration, Recto said. Recto urged the government to come up with response measures to counter bird flu as the death toll from the dreaded avian virus mounts in the region.

All but five of the 92 human fatalities attributed to the bird flu so far had come from countries near the Philippines, Recto said.

Vietnam tops the list with 42 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19, Thailand with 14, China with eight, and Cambodia with four, according to World Health Organization's (WHO) data on confirmed human cases of avian influenza.

"The real national emergency may come from air, and it would be harder to stop than the Marines. It will be easier to recapture jailbirds like (Lt. Lawrence San Juan) but how can you ask thousands of birds to surrender," Recto said.

The senator noted that Malaysia reported just over a week ago of a fresh outbreak of avian influenza virus in poultry after having been considered free of the disease for more than a year.

"Some of these countries are, in some points, less than a 100 km away from us as the crow flies," Recto noted.

Scientists have attributed the spread of the avian influenza virus to the migration of wild birds which could have transferred the virus to domestic birds.

The senator warned authorities to be complacent and treat the seas surrounding the Philippines as a sort of "quarantine moat" that would stop the entry of the virus.

"Migratory birds have used many of our islands as their traditional stopover points. In fact, some of our islets, particularly in Cebu, look like the avian version of a busy international airport," the senator said.

WHO recently said that 13 new countries have reported their first cases of H5N1 (the scientific name of the bird flu virus) infection in birds since the beginning of February this year.

Bird flu has a devastating effect on the poultry industry because in addition to the birds it kills outright, many more must be slaughtered to prevent the spread of the virus.

Recto said the local poultry industry alone is expected to suffer at least P100 billion in losses if bird flu infection would led to the shut down of farms and the mass culling of birds.

While Recto agreed that the Department of Health was prepared what seems to be a good plan to prevent the spread of bird flu in the country, the senator said it should be given enough funding to implement it.

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

Poultry industry root cause of bird flu crisis: GRAIN

Small-scale poultry farming and wild birds are being unfairly blamed for the bird flu crisis now affecting large parts of the world. A new report from GRAIN shows how the transnational poultry industry is the root of the problem and must be the focus of efforts to control the virus.

The spread of industrial poultry production and trade networks has created ideal conditions for the emergence and transmission of lethal viruses like the H5N1 strain of bird flu. Once inside densely populated factory farms, viruses can rapidly become lethal and amplify. Air thick with viral load from infected farms is carried for kilometres, while integrated trade networks spread the disease through many carriers: live birds, day-old-chicks, meat, feathers, hatching eggs, eggs, chicken manure and animal feed.

"Everyone is focused on migratory birds and backyard chickens as the problem," says Devlin Kuyek of GRAIN. "But they are not effective vectors of highly pathogenic bird flu. The virus kills them, but is unlikely to be spread by them."

For example, in Malaysia, the mortality rate from H5N1 among village chicken is only 5%, indicating that the virus has a hard time spreading among small scale chicken flocks. H5N1 outbreaks in Laos, which is surrounded by infected countries, have only occurred in the nation's few factory farms, which are supplied by Thai hatcheries. The only cases of bird flu in backyard poultry, which account for over 90% of Laos' production, occurred next to the factory farms.

"The evidence we see over and over again, from the Netherlands in 2003 to Japan in 2004 to Egypt in 2006, is that lethal bird flu breaks out in large scale industrial chicken farms and then spreads," Kuyek explains.

The Nigerian outbreak earlier this year began at a single factory farm, owned by a Cabinet minister, distant from hotspots for migratory birds but known for importing unregulated hatchable eggs. In India, local authorities say that H5N1 emerged and spread from a factory farm owned by the country's largest poultry company, Venkateshwara Hatcheries.

A burning question is why governments and international agencies, like the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, are doing nothing to investigate how the factory farms and their byproducts, such as animal feed and manure, spread the virus. Instead, they are using the crisis as an opportunity to further industrialise the poultry sector. Initiatives are multiplying to ban outdoor poultry, squeeze out small producers and restock farms with genetically-modified chickens. The web of complicity with an industry engaged in a string of denials and cover-ups seems complete.

"Farmers are losing their livelihoods, native chickens are being wiped out and some experts say that we're on the verge of a human pandemic that could kill millions of people," Kuyek concludes. "When will governments realise that to protect poultry and people from bird flu, we need to protect them from the global poultry industry?"

http://southasia.oneworld.net/article/view/128602/1/?PrintableVersion=enabled

http://www.grain.org/briefings/?id=194

:vik:

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Bird flu hits seven regions in southern Russia - ministry 

13:11 | 02/ 03/ 2006
<A href="http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060302/43867933.html">en.rian.ru/russia</a></center>
MOSCOW, March 2 (RIA Novosti) - Cases of bird flu have been registered in seven regions in southern Russia, a major stopover area for migrating birds, a spokesman for the agriculture ministry said Thursday.

As of March 1, the spokesman said, bird flu had hit seven regions in the Southern Federal District: the republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, Daghestan, Chechnya, Kalmykia and Adygea, and the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories.

A spokesman for the Emergency Situations Ministry said headquarters of experts had been set up in each region to prevent the spread of the virus, and stricter control had been imposed over people arriving to Russia from neighboring countries. All hospitals and veterinary services are on high alert, he added.

The ministry said earlier that about half a million birds died of bird flu in February in southern Russia.

"The third wave of the disease swept the country starting February 3 and is still ongoing," a ministry spokesman said. "About 500,000 birds have died from a virus that lab research identified as bird flu since the pandemic broke out, and more than 215,000 birds have been culled."

Over 1.3 million birds have died or been slaughtered in three outbreaks of bird flu since July 2005, or over 44,000 every day, the ministry said. This includes more than 416,000 birds, or about 17,500 every day, that died from the virus.

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

The End of 'Free Range Chicken'

It's a given that H5N1 is traveling around the world in migrating wild birds... IMHO, I don't think there is much to argue against that.

The reason I posted the above post (#18), is that it struck me as interesting... It seems lke everything is 'GM' (gentically manufactured or mutated) these days... from crops, to produce to meats. We've heard the horror stories of these chicken factories... etc. etc. Now wouldn't that be the ideal place to breed something like H5N1? Then it's interesting that the first attack is on individual farmers, who are rasing enough to take care of their families, be it in Asia or Africa. Then in developed countries, we know organic foods and free range chicken are the healthiest... hmmmm

:ld:

Measures to control bird flu targeting backyard poultry in a selection of countries

Country / Measure

Austria / Ban on outdoor poultry from October to December. Ordinance extended indefinitely around area where H5N1-infected swans were found.

Canada / Ban on outdoor poultry in the Province of Quebec

China / Anhui provincial government decrees all backyard poultry must be kept in cages. Complete ban on backyard birds in Hong Kong

Croatia / Ban on outdoor poultry during migration season

France / Ban on outdoor poultry, with exceptions

Germany / Ban on outdoor poultry.

Italy / Free range birds (15-20% of poultry sector) have to be under wire-screens

Netherlands / Ban on outdoor poultry, with exceptions

Nigeria / Backyard poultry and birds banned within the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja

Norway / Ban on outdoor poultry in eight southern counties

Slovenia / Ban on outdoor poultry

Sweden / Ban on outdoor poultry

Switzerland / Poultry must be kept within roofed enclosures

Thailand / Restrictions on free-ranging ducks. Ban on live poultry markets in Bangkok and slaughterhouses moved to outskirts. Forced collectivisation of small poultry flocks in central provinces.

Ukraine / Sale of live poultry and poultry products produced by private village households is prohibited in the Autonomous Region of Crimea. Ban does not apply to factory produced poultry.

Viet Nam / Ban on poultry farming in towns and cities

http://www.grain.org/briefings/?id=194

:ld:

For all you conspiracy theorists.... here's one to stick in your pipe to smoke... who's to gain from this? If BF becomes this horrible epidemic, then it's real... if it dies out... and then takes all the small farmers and 'free range' chicken growers with it... then... hmmmm.... Either way it appears, we all lose.... millions of people die, or our food supply is severely degraded. :dot5:

Btw, have you-all been following the chipping articles posted here in previous 'daily bird flu threads'? BF and animal ID are going hand in hand... hmmm

:vik:

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Indonesia expects to eradicate bird flu by 2010

03/04/2006 -- 17:00(GMT+7)
<A href="http://www.vnanet.vn/NewsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=33&NEWS_ID=188736">www.vnanet.vn</a></center>
Jakarta (VNA) - Indonesia is expected to eliminate avian influenza in its territory by 2010, according to Samsul Bachri, Director of the Animal Health Department under the Indonesian Agriculture Ministry.

He said that if the governmental anti-bird flu programmes are implemented successfully, Indonesia is likely to contain the H5N1 virus by 2008 and eliminate the pandemic by 2010.

Earlier, Sarimudin Sulaiman, marketing director of the pharmaceutical company PY Bio Farma, said the production of vaccine against H5N1 virus for human is under tests.

Meanwhile, at least two patients in Jakarta suspected of carrying bird flu carriers were admitted to the Sulianti Saroso hospital on March 1, bringing the total number of suspected cases treated at the hospital to 133. Of the figure, 24 died and 11 others tested positive for the virus.--Enditem

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Cats could spread bird flu

<A href="http://www.nursingtimes.net/nav?page=nt.news.story&resource=4454133">NT Online News</a>
posted on 02 03 2006 </center>
Public health experts are warning that domestic cats will have to be kept indoors if bird flu arrives in the UK.

The news comes after a cat in Germany died this week from infection with H5N1 virus.

Dr Kuiken, a veterinary pathologist from the Netherlands, where bird flu is already present said that a range of species had now been infected in the field with the virus, including cats, dogs, pigs, leopards and tigers as well as humans.

Although cats have not appeared to play a significant role in outbreaks in the Far East, where birds play the dominant role in spreading the disease, they should be subject to control measures in affected areas, he said.

'It is good to use your common sense. If it is known that the virus is present in a given area, it is sensible to stop the cats getting into contact with infected birds. One possibility would be to keep the cats indoors,' he said.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Results of avian-flu tests in Quebec expected today

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060302.NATS02-1/TPStory/National

TU THANH HA

Montreal -- The Canadian Food Inspection Agency expects to know today the results of tests for the bird flu virus conducted at four Quebec farms that recently imported live ducklings from France.

Four other Quebec farms that were also inspected were told yesterday that their imported French ducks have tested negative for the H5N1 avian influenza virus.

"We're just being cautious," an agency official told reporters during a briefing yesterday. The eight Quebec farms had imported their poultry from France in the past month.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Bird flu discovered in Serbia

http://www.b92.net/english/news/index.php?&nav_category=&nav_id=33951&order=priority&style=headlines

BELGRADE -- Thursday – It has been confirmed that a swan found dead 20 kilometres from Sombor was infected with the H5 strain of the bird flu.

The swan was found in the Veliki Backi canal, in the municipality of Sombor, and according to the diagnosis, the swan died because of the H5 bird flu, according to the Serbian Agriculture Ministry’s Veterinary Council.

The remains of the swan were taken in for analysis at the Veterinary Institute in Novi Sad and the Veterinary Specialist Institute in Kraljevo, where it was confirmed that the avian flu strain was present and responsible for the swan’s death.

The findings will be sent to England and the Weybridge laboratories in order to be confirmed. The Agriculture Ministry has stated that Serbia has been in the process of taking preventative safety measures against the spread of the bird flu long before this first case was uncovered.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Bird watchers on the front line
Advancing avian flu forces U.S. into defensive posture

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...7B-7499-42BB-904A-62EB5E17CD7A}&siteid=google

By Kristen Gerencher, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:44 PM ET Mar 1, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- With bird flu being found in a growing number of flocks throughout Europe, Africa and Asia, the United States needs to prepare for the possibility that the virus will make its way to poultry here, experts said.
In February alone, the virulent avian influenza strain H5N1 spread to 17 new countries in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Monday. The virus was first discovered in Hong Kong in 1997.

The virus is deadly to birds, masses of which have been destroyed to try to contain the disease that's believed to pass from their contact with wild migratory waterfowl, either through shared contaminated water like a pond or via droppings that adhere to farm straw and other materials.

On Tuesday, German health officials said a dead cat on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen tested positive for bird flu. Last week, France confirmed an outbreak of bird flu on a farm, prompting several nations to ban French poultry imports.

Though rare, bird flu in humans has a death rate of about 50%. Confirmed human cases worldwide stand at 173, resulting in 93 deaths since December 2003.

Most of the human cases happened after people had close contact with sick birds, and none have been linked to eating properly cooked poultry or poultry products, the WHO said.

The worst fear -- that the virus acquires the ability to pass easily between people -- hasn't happened, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC,) which monitors public-health concerns. Still, a few human cases appear to have passed from an infected person to a family member caregiver who had no direct contact with birds.

"There's no evidence it's efficiently transmitted from person to person, nor is it being sustained in the human population when it comes to person to person transmission," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said. "An overwhelming majority have gotten this from handling sick or dying birds."

However remote the possibility of a bird-flu pandemic, bird watchers may be able to help authorities mount an early and swift response to a potential one by reporting any suspicious group bird deaths to their state health department or the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said Dr. Leon Russell, president of the World Veterinary Association, a nonprofit federation of 80 national veterinary associations.

"It's analogous to West Nile (virus) in that we started having big die-outs in the crow family," he said.

Poultry differences

Domestic chickens, ducks and other birds sometimes interact with wild migratory birds, especially on small farms, but contact is generally limited in the U.S. because most poultry is kept indoors, said Dr. Kathy Neuzil, chair of the pandemic influenza task force for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Russell agreed." Most parts of the world that have this problem have the birds outside. That's pretty common in Asia and Africa and Europe. The wild birds can fly in and land on the same water the domestic birds are on."

Overlapping migratory bird flyways are cause for concern, but chicken-raising standards are different in the U.S., said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council, a trade group in Washington that represents major chicken processors such as Tyson Foods (TSN :Cultural differences also play a role in trying to contain the virus. Some Asian cultures in particular integrate birds into the household and some American ethnic groups also hold live bird markets in big cities, both of which potentially increase bird-flu contact with humans, Neuzil said.

And there's no denying the impact poverty can have since trained workers, laboratory infrastructure and other resources are critical to effective surveillance.

"In areas of the world where you have a smaller number of chickens but spread out in more places, it's harder to spot an outbreak even if you're looking for it," she said. Plus, if poultry-handling education fails to reach remote areas, problems may be detected "later in the outbreak when it's more difficult to control."

Even so, bird flu is no stranger to the U.S.

"We haven't had H5N1, but other types of avian influenza viruses have been detected in the U.S.," Neuzil said. "Because we've had very active surveillance systems, they've been picked up quickly and have not caused much of a problem."

The last major outbreak of a highly infectious bird flu in poultry happened in Pennsylvania in 1983-84, according to the National Chicken Council. About 15 million chickens were destroyed or died in that outbreak of the strain H5N2.

Pandemic concerns in perspective

Of course, a human pandemic may not come from bird flu. It's just that avian flu -- with its accelerating serious effects on birds, adaptability and danger to people -- is a candidate at the moment, said Russell, also an epidemiology professor at Texas A&M in College Station.

"As long as we're having human cases, there's a possibility it may mutate and start transmitting person to person, and then we're in trouble," he said.

Similar to human pandemics in 1957 and 1968, a mild pandemic would infect an estimated 75 million Americans, kill 100,000 of them and reduce the gross domestic product by 1.5%, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released in December 2005.

A severe outbreak would sicken 90 million, lead to 2 million deaths and push the U.S. economy into a recession with a GDP drop of 5%, the CBO said. Such a scenario would be more akin to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed as many as 50 million people worldwide.

The regular seasonal flu sends an estimated 200,000 Americans to the hospital and kills about 36,000 mostly elderly or immune-compromised people every year.

Employers need to address issues such as crisis leadership, worker
communications, insurance coverage, telecommuting and travel restrictions in the event a pandemic does occur, according to Mercer Human Resource Consulting, which launched a Web site, www.mercerhr.com/avianflu, for this purpose. Visit the site.

"Business continuity planning for multinationals is particularly complex, but a flu pandemic will be challenging even for companies with a predominantly U.S.-based work force," Jim Reynolds, a principal in Mercer's Health and Productivity Management business in Denver, said in a prepared statement.

"Put simply, since a pandemic could incapacitate any member of the management team, there must be a plan to identify a group of managers who can back up one another and who will be available to exercise leadership in different locations and at different times during a pandemic."

Neuzil agreed. "There is a lot we can do now with telecommuting sort of options... To get those in place as much as we can would be a real benefit."

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Suspected bird flu death in Iraq

http://www.itn.co.uk/news/2105821.html

A woman has died in a suspected case of the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 close to the town of Nassiriya in southern Iraq.

Further tests are being carried out in Baghdad and Cairo, the government said.

Dr Ibtisam Aziz, a spokeswoman for the Higher Committee on Bird Flu in Iraq, said that suspected cases in the Shula area of Baghdad are still under medical care, with laboratory results yet to be received.

Other cases of infection from samples taken from two villages in Kefry, in Dayala province, northeast of Baghdad have prompted the killing of infected poultry and the sterilisation of villages, Aziz said.

One other suspected patient in Dayala province was sent to the health centre in Said Jabir village.

Two fatal cases of human bird flu - in a teenage girl and her uncle last month - were previously confirmed in the northern province of Sulaimaniya, close to the border with Turkey.

Meanwhile, a cat that was found dead in northern Germany with the H5N1 bird flu virus had the highly pathogenic Asian strain that can be transmitted to humans, an institute specialising in veterinary diseases said.

The Friedrich Loeffler Institute, which advises the government on animal diseases, said the discovery was neither a surprise nor a reason to take additional measures to curb the disease, which was identified in wild birds on the Island of Ruegen last month.

Experts believe the cat, which was also found on Ruegen, probably contracted the disease by eating infected birds.

And Serbia has detected its first case of bird flu in a swan found dead in the region of Sombor, close to the Croatian border.

The Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement the bird tested positive for the H5 strain of avian influenza and samples would be sent to a UK laboratory in Weybridge to determine whether the dangerous H5N1 strain was present.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Bird flu advice for travellers outlined

http://www.itn.co.uk/news/britain_1571368.html

The Department of Health has published public health information for people travelling to countries affected by bird flu.

The leaflet provides guidance on how to reduce the risk of exposure to the virus in a country affected by an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza, the symptoms of infection and what to do if a person thinks they may have been infected.

The leaflet advises travellers not to visit bird or poultry farms and markets, to avoid close contact with live or dead poultry, not to not eat raw or poorly-cooked poultry or poultry products, including blood, and to wash their hands frequently with soap and water.

Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer said: "The information we are distributing is to make sure that people travelling to countries affected by H5N1 have up-to-date health advice.

"H5N1 avian influenza is predominantly a disease of birds. The virus does not pass easily from birds to people and has not yet been shown to pass from person to person.

"Where people have been infected, it was as a result of close contact with infected poultry or birds. The virus has caused severe disease and a high proportion of people have died.

"H5N1 infections have not been reported in this country, but it is important that travellers from the UK have clear factual information to assist them."

The leaflet will be available from GP surgeries, health centres, and English air and sea ports.

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

New Sequences at Genbank 
Recombination Acknowledged

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/viewer.fcgi?db=nucleotide&val=61698134

From Dr. Niman on C&E Flu Clinic
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=41186

A cohort of AIV H5N1 subtypes isolated from wild aquatic birds and
domestic poultry revealed rapid transmission, frequent
reassortment, and identifiable recombination events

Hu,J., Chen,Z., Zhang,X. and Yu,J

Submitted (28-FEB-2005) Beijing Genomics Institute, Beijing Airport
Industrial Zone B6, Beijing 086/101300, China

JPD · Mar 2, 2006

Pandemic Avian influenza could be catastrophic for global economies: WHO

http://news.webindia123.com/news/showdetails.asp?id=266102&cat=India

New Delhi | March 02, 2006 8:12:27 PM IST

The experts of the World Health Organisation for the South-East Asia region today warned that the if the avian Influenza would turn pandemic then it could have a catastrophic implication on the global economies.

Dr. Samlee Plianbangchang, Regional Director WHO for South East Asia while addressing the members of the International Community said: "If the avian Influenza virus undergoes mutation or re-assortment, it could initiate Avian Influenza epidemic that could have a devastating impact on the health of millions of people around the globe".

Dr. Samlee further warned that in such a situation developing countries would be the worst affected since the health infrastructure in these countries was not ready or strong enough to tackle the situation.

Commenting on the recent outbreak of bird flu virus in Maharashtra, WHO representative in India Dr. S.J. Habayeb said that "the country reacted adequately which was partly due to the fact that the authorities quickly implemented defined control measures on the basis of the preparedness plans made jointly with WHO".

Dr. Habayeb showed confidence that the government is further stepping up its preparedness measure for the future.

Meanwhile, Dr. J.P.Narain, Director Communicable Diseases, WHO South-East Asia region, said that no countries could remain complacent to the threat of H5N1 virus as no one can predict that in which country the next pandemic will emerge.

With 11 member states, WHO South East Asia region has been working to enhance pandemic preparedness plans for the bird flu virus with several consultation process that has resulted in the preparedness plans adopted by all the member nations. (ANI)

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

(This article is seemingly confirming that the woman did die from H5N1 infection)

<center>HLT-IRAQ-BIRD FLU-DEATH
Woman infected with Bird Flu dies in Iraq

<A href="http://www.kuna.net.kw/Home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=834639">www.kuna.net.kw</a></center>
BAGHDAD, March 2 (KUNA) -- A woman infected with Bird Flu died on Thursday in Nasiriya, southern Iraq, a Ministry of Health official announced.

Spokesperson for the High Committee for Bird Flu Dr. Ibtesam Aziz said in a press release that samples were taken from birds that came in contact with the infected woman and were sent to laboratories in Cairo and Baghdad.

She added that suspected bird flu cases in the area of Shu'la in Baghdad are under medical supervision, noting that lab works on samples taken from the area did not confirm the presence of bird flu disease.

The spokesperson said that positive results were found in some samples taken from the villages of Sayid Mazri and Sayid Jaber in Kafri District, Diyala Province, noting that a suspected case of bird flu was admitted to the medical center in Sayid Jaber village.

Birds were also executed in seven villages within a three kilometer radius of the infected area, while a status of medical emergency was announced in Diyala to create an isolation zone and prevent the transportation of birds in and out of the area in an attempt to stop the spreading of the disease. (end) mhg.

fhd

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=
This article also appears to be an update to the one posted yesterday...

<center>Bahamas bird deaths raise fears avian flu has reached Americas

03-02-2006, 07h40
NASSAU (AFP)
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=110526">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>
Experts probed the unusual deaths of 14 birds in the southern Bahamas amid fears the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus strain had reached the Americas.

In Europe, meanwhile, Swiss officials confirmed the Alpine nation's first case of the disease's highly pathogenic strain that can kill humans, while the world's top health agencies played down the death of a German cat from H5N1.

Ten flamingos, three roseate spoonbills and a cormorant were found dead in a wildlife reserve on the Bahamas island of Great Inagua, which has a population of about 50,000 flamingos and a large lake popular with migrating birds.

"It is definitely an unusually high number, normally you don't find wild birds dropping out and dying," said Eric Carey, director of Parks and Science for the Bahamas National Trust, which runs the Inagua National Park.

He said, however "any number of things," including poisoning or weather, could have caused the deaths.

"We remain optimistic it is related to one of these factors rather than the anticipated speculation of bird flu or some other terrible disease," he told AFP.

Bahamian agriculture ministry director Simeon Pinder also stressed there was no indication at this stage as to what killed the birds.

To date, the Western Hemisphere has had no confirmed case of H5N1 bird flu, which has spread from Asia to Europe, Africa and parts of the Middle East, killing more than 90 people since it surfaced in 2003.

All had caught the disease from handling domestic fowl believed infected by migrating birds, but scientists fear that if the virus mutates to become transmissible between humans, a pandemic could occur, resulting in millions of deaths.

Experts in the Bahamas, including the government's chief veterinary officer and public health officials, were on Inagua Wednesday to investigate the bird deaths.

Carey said they would collect samples for testing on New Providence Island, where the capital Nassau is located, and possibly in the United States.

He admitted there was concern over the fact Inagua is a major transit point for migratory birds on their way north to the United State, 850 kilometers (530 miles) away.

While the affected birds are not migratory, they do come into contact with migrating geese and ducks.

But Carey said that Inagua's 1,000 human residents lived at a safe distance from the national park, located about 25 kilometers from the nearest population center.

Authorities had suspended tours of the park until the cause for the bird deaths could be determined, he said.

Meanwhile, US authorities announced Wednesday they had purchased 14.15 million more doses of anti-viral drugs, nearly quadrupling to 19.65 million a stockpile to be distributed if a pandemic is believed to be imminent.

The UN World Tourism Agency for its part said it is preparing for an eventual pandemic of bird flu in humans to try to minimise its impact on the tourism industry.

But WTO head Francesco Frangialli stressed, "For the moment there is no reason to not travel to any country in the world, provided people observe the recommendations of health and veterinary authorities."

In Switzerland, test results from a wild duck found a week ago near Lake Geneva revealed the presence of the H5N1 strain, the federal veterinary office said, following confirmation from the European Union's reference laboratory in Weybridge, England.

In Geneva, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said in the wake of the German cat death that the risk of people contracting bird flu from felines appeared to be remote.

WHO spokesman Dick Thompson added: "You have to put this in perspective: there have been 180 million birds that have been killed because of this disease and yet we've identified fewer than 200 human cases.

"So the risk from direct exposure to any animal, and we know that these animals are infected, is vanishingly small."

Experiments nearly two years ago had already shown that cats could be infected with H5N1, mainly from eating infected raw chicken or direct inoculation, and pass it on to other cats.

The cat found dead on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen, where dozens of wild birds have fallen victim to bird flu, is the first known case of a mammal in Europe infected with H5N1.

The discovery caused alarm in Germany, with the government ordering cat owners in the region to keep their pets locked up at home.

In Paris, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), which monitors the veterinary side of the bird flu scare, noted that in 2004 more than 40 tigers died at a zoo in Bangkok after being fed H5N1-infected chickens, and there had also been cases of infection among domestic cats in Asia.

But it stressed that so far avian flu "has fundamentally remained a bird disease."

The Flying Dutchman · Mar 2, 2006

=

<center>Bird flu spreading rapidly; U.S. government warns population

Posted Thursday, March 02, 2006
by Mike Adams
<A href="http://www.newstarget.com/019180.html">www.newstarget.com</a></center>
(From BirdFluDefense.com) The news on bird flu just keeps getting worse. The virus has now reportedly jumped species and infected a cat in Germany. One infected cat by itself does not equal a pandemic, but it does demonstrate how easily this virus can jump species, potentially infecting humans in the near future. 

Bird flu is right now spreading more rapidly than anyone could have guessed six months ago. The virus has now infected poultry farms in France, and chicken consumption is already down 30 percent in that country. The virus is soon expected to reach the U.K.

A recent poll conducted in the U.S. by the Harvard School of Public Health reveals that if a bird flu outbreak hits the U.S. population, an astounding 68% of the population will stay home and skip their jobs. (Similar behavior is expected across Europe, although the number might not be exactly the same.)

This means that a bird flu outbreak in humans can be expected to cause massive infrastructure disruptions as the people who keep the national infrastructure running stop coming to work. Imagine the chaos that would ensue if 2/3rds of the truck drivers and train conductors across the country just stayed home. Think about it: no deliveries of fuel, food, car parts, industrial chemicals, livestock feed or even coal for power plants.

The situation could be far worse than most people realize. The virus isn't the only threat: It's the infrastructure failures that are also a huge concern.

Already, sales of our bird flu book (How to Beat the Bird Flu) are rapidly accelerating to readers in Europe. This book teaches you not only how to protect yourself from bird flu infections, but also how to survive the temporary shutdown of essential infrastructure services (water, power, fuel, food, police, hospitals, etc.) that are bound to accompany any human outbreak of the disease. It is essential to get this book ahead of the crowd, because preparedness can't be done as a last-minute project.

<center>------------------------------------------------------------------</center>

Related book:
How to Beat the Bird Flu: how to protect yourself from the coming bird flu pandemic
This downloadable ebook arms you with the information you need to protect you and your family from the possible bird flu pandemic the World Health Organization is warning about.
(bird flu)

<center>Bird flu is coming, says HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt</center>
Make no mistake, bird flu is coming. Just this week, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt warned that the bird flu virus infecting U.S. birds was, "only a matter of time." It's unusual for the U.S. government to so blatantly acknowledge such a threat, but perhaps the reason is because Washington knows it can't possibly rescue the entire population from a pandemic. Individuals and families are on their own, according to the U.S. government's document, "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza" (NSPI), which encourages people to start preparing for infrastructure disruptions. That same document also deliberately says that you should not rely on the government to save you.
Most of the U.S. public, of course, has done nothing to prepare. When an outbreak is actually reported in the mainstream media, this lack of preparedness will inevitably lead to panic runs on face masks, antiviral medicines (including herbal tinctures), and even basic supplies like water and sleeping bags (to keep warm when the heat is gone). The very best antiviral medicines that I recommend in the book -- ones that are far more effective than Tamiflu at killing various viral strains -- will be rapidly sold out. During a bird flu outbreak, these will probably be selling on eBay for $250 a bottle. I show you where to get them today for 1/10th that price, $25 a bottle from a reputable source. (As always, I have no financial involvement with this recommendation. I list them for your benefit, not mine.)

What will you eat if the food deliveries are disrupted?

Did you realize there's almost no buffer of food in the food distribution channels in the United States? Grocery stores only stock enough items for 2-3 days of typical sales. In a panic run on food, where supplies are not being replenished by trucks, expect the supplies to be wiped out in a single day. With bird flu now spreading like wildfire throughout the bird populations of the globe, and with some of the world's top virologists saying they are astonished at the aggressiveness of this virus, if you aren't preparing right now for infrastructure failures, I believe you're putting yourself and your family at risk.

<center>------------------------------------------------------------------------</center>
Related article
Bird flu timeline: A history of influenza from 412 BC – AD 2006
(Concept: bird flu) 

Every family, regardless of bird flu, should be able to live at least two weeks without outside supplies. And yet most U.S. households couldn't live two DAYS without municipal water and electricity.

We are a nation that is literally one meal away from a panic. If the food stops, all bets are off. Think Hurricane Katrina multiplied by a hundred cities and you'll get some idea of what could unfold. Martial Law is not out of the question.

I truly dislike describing such horrifying scenarios. I much prefer to talk about staying healthy, preventing disease, and enhancing quality of life through nutrition and natural medicine. But when a threat this large is on the horizon, I cannot ignore it. I would be irresponsible in my role as a communicator if I did not express the urgency of the need to prepare against what may become the most deadly human pandemic we've ever seen. This is not science fiction; it's biological fact.

Remember, you can stay up on bird flu news at http://www.BirdFluDefense.com

Sadly, the near-total lack of preparedness I see at the household, community, city, state and federal levels is the most frightening thing of all. This nation, and its people, are setting themselves for absolute disaster if bird flu becomes a human pandemic. Maybe we'll all get lucky and this virus will be beaten back. But that's clearly a roll of the dice, with stakes too high to gamble with (human lives) if you ask me.

<center>Why I'm not gambling with my life</center>

I am not a gambler. I don't play the slots at Vegas, I don't buy lottery tickets, and I don't gamble with the safety of my readers when it comes to telling the truth about the bird flu virus. The truth is that this virus is one mutation away from becoming a global pandemic that could kill tens of millions of people around the globe. And yet most people do nothing to prepare.
Do not be caught unprepared. Start preparing right now, even if it means just filling empty 2-liter bottles with water and storing those in a closet. Remember, you'll need 2 - 3 gallons of water PER DAY per person just to survive. How much water do you have stored right now?

<center>------------------------------------------------------------------</center>
Related book:
Water Cures: Drugs Kill : How Water Cured Incurable Diseases
"Water Cures: Drugs Kill" 

In 1992, the book "Your Body's Many Cries for Water" introduced a medical breakthrough to the public: the awesome medicinal properties of a simple glass of water for the treatment... continues...
(Concept: water)

The wrong thing to do is nothing. Do not let this "pre-panic" opportunity for calm preparedness slip by. Stay ahead of the crowd. Beat the rush. Start preparing today, just in case. It's like insurance. You buy insurance for your car. You buy it for your house or belongings. And if you're like most people, you probably even buy insurance for your body (health insurance). Insuring yourself against infectious disease only makes sense. Preparedness is cheap, but being caught unprepared can literally cost you your life.
If this is all a false alarm, and bird flu never becomes contagious in humans, then you've wasted nothing, because now you're prepared for anything: Hurricanes, floods, power grid failures, tornados, earthquakes and civil unrest (LA Riots, remember?).

In other words, there's no downside to preparing. But failure to prepare could literally jeopardize your life (and the safety of your family). Besides, the U.S. government has already blatantly said it can't help you (read the NSPI report yourself to see). Don't even think of hoping to be saved by the National Guard. There simply won't be enough medicine, water or food to go around unless the outbreak is contained to a few local regions.

Fortunately, preparing is affordable and simple to do if you plan ahead. And once you're prepared, you can rest easy, confident that you are fully equipped to survive whatever natural disasters the world throws your way. It will make you feel safer and more secure. Don't be scared, be prepared!

Kim99 · Mar 2, 2006

It already does jump to humans. It's the human to human jump that will be the pandemic.

NEWS
Speaker warns of impending avian flu pandemic

by Drew Hamm
Thursday, March 2, 2006

Concentrating on the avian influenza that has been spreading across the globe, a world acclaimed journalist addressed the issue of global health during a speech at the University of Wisconsin Wednesday.

Laurie Garrett, winner of the Pulitzer Prize, the Peabody award and two Polk awards in her distinguished career — the only person in history ever to do so — is a leader in her field of global health.

“No one in this room is immune,” Garrett said, referring to the strain of bird flu, H5N1, currently decimating much of the bird populations in southeastern Asia.

Cynthia Haq, director for the UW Center for Global Health, introduced Garrett and said Garrett was “the articulate, prolific spokeswoman for public and global health.”

Haq credited the establishment of the center in Madison a year ago to Garrett’s research.

Garrett hammered home the point that a pandemic was a distinct possibility with the bird flu.

“When the crisis hits, we do not have answers,” she said, citing data which indicates New York City having only a tenth of the beds needed to support the minimum amount of victims in a hypothetical outbreak.

Garrett also noted a record number of bird flu viruses appeared in the fall of 2005 adding, “The whole flu scenario is accelerating.”

Garrett said the bird flu is a “threat on national security that would dwarf 9/11.”

If a worldwide epidemic were to occur, airlines would shut down and each country would be on its own in terms of finding vaccines and other supplies, Garrett said.

“We would keep American made products for Americans,” she added.

Tamiflu is a vaccine being touted as a combatant to the bird flu, as well as an effective treatment prescribed for influenza.

However, Switzerland has the only manufacturing plant of Tamiflu in the world, and America has a severe lack of the vaccine.

Garrett also stressed that currently, the H5N1 strain is only transferable from bird-to-human, and not human-to-human.

“The reaction at this point is nothing compared to a human-to-human pandemic,” she said, adding the death toll would overshadow anything except a nuclear war.

She also said it has not yet been proven if the bird flu can spread quickly from human to human.

The World Health Organization has proposed a policy of containment, which would take 30 days to get infected citizens out of the main population.

Unfortunately, Garrett said, many governments take up to 80 days to even report an outbreak of the bird flu in their area.

“How do we do a quarantine if we don’t know who is infected?” Garrett questioned. “And can the global community pour in resources to contain the virus?”

The World Bank, along with 38 other nations, have committed $1.9 billion to fight H5N1 in preparation for a human pandemic.

Garrett said she doubts the world governments’ commitment to fighting the potential worldwide disaster, saying politicians today worry about their next reelection instead of what they could do to better the world far into the future.

Those in attendance were eager to hear Garrett’s views on how large of a threat the bird flu poses to the United States.

“I found it interesting that she commented on how hard it was for the government to be imaginative and how they only focus on four years in the future as opposed to four decades,” said Univ. of Wisconsin junior Alex Grace, who attended Wednesday’s speech.

http://badgerherald.com/news/2006/0...arns_of_imp.php

Kim99 · Mar 2, 2006

Here is a copy of a post from QUIPLASH over on CE. I think this sums it up pretty well. this was posted on Feb. 28:

I've mentioned this news, plus MHSC's statistics on countries infected, in an email message I just sent out to friends and family (I send out periodic updates and I know that some, but not all, are taking my message seriously and already prepping.)

Here's the text of the message; feel free to modify for your own uses, I don't mind

-----

I have refrained from sending out updates recently because, frankly, the bad
news has been coming in fast and furious, and I wanted to make the
gravity of the current situation as clear to you as possible. I am not
joking: YOU NEED TO PREPARE FOR THIS.

If you want to skip all the bad news and get straight to the
what-do-I-do part, scroll down to the bottom of this email message for
three websites which have the best and most current information
available on what you need to know and what you need to have on hand.

-----

Here from thefluclinic.com, is the most recent list of CONFIRMED H5N1
infections in birds and humans, listed alphabetically by country.
Forty-five countries.

Legend: B=bird, H=human, Cat=cat, date=date of first reported
infection. Yes, cat; Germany has reported its first dead mammal from
bird flu: a cat, and there have previously been cases in Asia as well.

Note also: 23 of these countries had their first infections SINCE Feb.
1st, 2006. In other words, this list of countries has doubled in
size in just four weeks.

Confirmed - 45 countries

-- Algeria (H) 2-25-05
-- Austria (B) 2-14-06
-- Azerbaijan (B) 2-9-06
----- Absheron (B) 2-11-06
----- Gilyazi (B) 2-27-06
-- Belgium (B) 10-?-05
-- Bosnia/Herzegovina (B) 2-17-06
-- Bulgaria (B) 2-11-06
-- Cambodia (B) 1-24-04 (H) 2-?-05
-- China (B) ? (H) 2-4-03
----- Zhejiang (B) 2004 (H) 2-10-06
-- Croatia (B) 10-26-05
-- Cyprus (B) 1-30-06
-- Egypt (B) 2-16-06
-- France (B) 2-18-06
-- Georgia (Europe) (B) 2-24-06
-- Germany (B) (Cat 2-28-06)
----- Baden Wuerttemberg (B) 2-24-06
----- Bavaria (B) 2-28-06 (H5N?)
----- Brandenburg (B) 2-25-06 (H5N?)
----- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (which includes Ruegen Island) (B) 2-14-06
----- Schleswig-Holstein (B) 2-24-06
-- Greece (B) 2-11-06
-- Hungary (B) 2-15-06
-- India (B,H)
----- Maharashtra (B) 2-18-06 (H) 2-22-06
-- Indonesia (B) 2-2-04 (H) 7-?-05
-- Iran (B) 2-14-06
-- Iraq (B) (H) 1-2-06
-- Italy (B) 2-11-06
-- Japan (B) 1-?-04
-- Kazakhstan (B) 8-2-05
-- Kuwait (B) 11-11-05
-- Laos (B) 1-27-04
-- Libya (B) 10-9-05
-- Malaysia (B) 8-?-04
-- Mongolia (B) 8-12-05
-- Niger (B) 2-15-06
-- Nigeria (B) 2-8-06
----- Sokoto (B)
----- Katsina (B)
----- Kano (B)
----- Yobe (B)
----- Kaduna (B)
----- Bauchi (B)
----- Plateau (B)
----- Nassarawa (B)
----- Abuja (B)
----- Kogi (B)
----- Lagos (B)
-- Pakistan (B) 2-26-06 (H5N?)
-- Romania (B) 10-15-05
-- Russia (B) 7-23-05
----- Chelyabinsk (B)
----- Dagestan (B)
----- Kurgan (B)
----- Krasnodar (B) 2-28-06
----- Novosibirsk (B)
----- Omsk (B)
----- Tyumen (B)
-- Saudi Arabia (B)
-- Slovakia (B) 2-16-06
-- Slovenia (B) 2-12-06
-- South Korea (B) 12-19-03 (H) 2-24-06
-- Sweden (B) 2-28-06
-- Switzerland (B) 2-26-06
-- Taiwan (B) 10-?-05
-- Thailand (B) (Tigers 1-23-04) (H) 9-?-04
-- Turkey (B) 10-13-05 (H) 1-1-06
-- UK (finches in quarantine) (B) 10-?-05
-- Ukraine (B) 12-5-05
-- VietNam (B) 1-8-04 (H) 12-?-04

Plus another 18 countries have suspected cases of bird flu at this time.

Source: http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=325304 (go the
last page of this thread and scroll down to the bottom for the latest
statistics).

----

More bad news: According to the respected award-winning scientific
journalist Laurie Garrett (who wrote one of the earliest mainstream
media reports on the coming threat last summer):

"For at least a decade H5N1 has circulated among a small pool of
migrating birds, mostly inside China, and occasionally broken out in
other animals and people. Last May, however, more than 6,000 avian
carcasses piled up along the shores of Lake Qinghai, in central China,
one of the world's most important bird breeding sites. Most of the
dead included species that hadn't previously evidenced influenza
infection.

The Lake Qinghai moment was the tipping point in the bird flu
pandemic. The virus mutated, evidently becoming more contagious and
deadly to a broader range of bird species, some of which continued
their northern migration to central Siberia. By June, Russia's tundra
was, for the first time, teeming with H5N1-infected birds,
intermingling with southern European species that became infected
before flying home, via the Black Sea.

Not surprisingly, by October countries from Ukraine to Greece were
rumored to have H5N1, but only the Romanian government responded with
swift transparency, culling tens of thousands of chickens and ducks.
Most of the governments in the region did not confirm their H5N1
contaminations until Turkey, after at least three months of denial,
was forced on Jan. 6 to admit that the virus had infected birds in a
third of the country's provinces, and had caused several human
infections and deaths.

Since then, we have learned of confirmed bird and/or human H5N1 cases
in Iraq, Azerbaijan, Iran, Greece, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Austria,
Hungary, Slovenia, France, Germany, Denmark, Bulgaria and, most
disturbingly, Nigeria, Egypt and India.

Not a single one of these countries' outbreaks ought to have been
surprises. Each of them is located along either the Black
Sea/Mediterranean migratory bird flyway, which starts in Siberia and,
at its southernmost point, ends in Nigeria and Cameroon, or the
European flyway, which overlaps the former, and stretches from
northernmost Siberia to Nigeria.

Anybody tracking the birds could have seen it coming. Several
countries along the flyway between Saudi Arabia (which has confirmed
H5N1 infections in falcons) and Nigeria have not reported H5N1 cases,
but much of the region is North Africa's sparsely populated Sahara
Desert. Egypt reported widespread bird infection last week, and it is
likely that infected birds have landed along the few waterways in the
area, such as the Nile, Lake Chad and the Red Sea.

We should not be astonished to learn of H5N1 outbreaks in birds or
people in the next few weeks in nations located along the East Africa
flyway, which overlaps with the already contaminated Black
Sea/Mediterranean one: Cameroon, Chad, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda,
Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Gabon, Angola, Namibia, South Africa,
Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and the rest of the eastern African
countries.

Because H5N1 has been confirmed in Nigeria, Egypt, Germany and Spain,
which straddle the intersections of the Black Sea/Mediterranean and
the East Atlantic flyways, over the next six weeks we should not be
surprised to hear of H5N1 bird and even human cases in several
northern European nations, including Britain and Iceland.

By June or July, if the biological imperatives continue to follow
their course, H5N1 should turn up in eastern Siberia, and then Alaska,
via the East Asia flyway. It might also at that time jump from
Iceland, via Greenland, to northern Canada. Once in the Arctic zones
of the Americas, H5N1 will be able to follow any, or all, of the four
primary north/south flyways that span the Americas, from the Arctic to
Tierra del Fuego. It is in the realm of reasonable probability that
H5N1 will reach the United States this summer or early autumn."

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02...n/edgarrett.php

That's right: Even if a pandemic does NOT break out, Canada and the
United States will have H5N1 infections in birds (and likely animals
and humans) this summer or fall.

We will then be in the same situation as Europe, Asia, and Africa are
in right now: tens and hundreds of thousands of dead birds (11,000
dead turkeys in France this weekend), sending the poultry market into
a freefall as borders close to imports and consumers avoid chickens,
turkeys, and ducks. Dead wild birds of any and all kinds: sparrows to
flamingoes. Cases of dead cats and other mammals due to H5N1. And
human infections, some causing death and some also infecting other
humans--and yes, some limited human-to-human infection are happening,
this has been confirmed by the World Health Organization and the US
Centres for Disease Control.

That's the BEST case scenario, folks. The worst case scenario is that
a pandemic breaks out BEFORE the wild birds come this summer or this
autumn. Depending on where in the world it firsts breaks out, we have
anywhere from several days to several weeks to prepare.

-----

The US government is now telling its citizens to prepare for a
six-week quarantine:

"Federal officials on a nationwide awareness tour urged communities to
prepare in advance for worst-case scenarios, including a possible
six-week quarantine, if avian flu becomes a virus transmitted from
person to person.

"You need to do this now. You need a plan and a strategy for
preparedness," said Alfonso Martinez-Fonts Jr., special assistant to
the secretary for the private sector of the U.S. Department of
Homeland Security.

Small communities and even neighborhoods need to organize, officials
said, because if a pandemic strikes, many people will be confined to
their homes. Under quarantine, people will have no way to get to
hospitals, grocery stores or town centers, officials said at the Feb.
21 meeting in Dover."

Source: http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=40948

You need to start stockpiling food and medicine and anything else you
might need for at least 6 weeks. Many people suggest longer, such as
3 months or even 6 months. THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN PROTECT YOURSELF
UNTIL A VACCINE IS MADE IS TO SELF-QUARANTINE. You need to decide now
WHERE you will do this, WITH WHOM you will be, WHAT supplies you will
need, etc.

We run on a just-in-time supply system, which mean that when a
pandemic hits and international borders close, we will run short of
almost all goods, including medications. 80% of US drugs either come
from or have components coming from other countries. I'm sure the
figure for Canada is the same or even higher.

Get all your prescriptions renewed, for three months if you are able.
Also get a prescription for Tamiflu from your physician; it's one of
the few drugs that might save your life if you get infected with H5N1.
(The other drug is Relenza. Two older drugs which might work are
amantidine and rimantidine.) Tell her/him you are traveling to Europe
or Asia if you need a good excuse. Try to get more than one box of 10
capsules; aim for 3 boxes for every person in your household. It is
by far the cheapest way to obtain it; it's currently selling for $20
or more per capsule via the Internet pharmacies, if you can get it at
all. Good luck.

-----

Your best sources of information for what to do are here:

The FluWiki
http://fluwikie.com

The Flu Clinic discussion group (check the Flu Prep subsection)
http://thefluclinic.com

Pandemic Reference Guide
http://home.san.rr.com/earlybird/Pa...ce Guides.htm

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

Thanks Kim99, your post #33 (above) and post #23 from yesterday's thread really bring the urgency home. However, whyever this started... H5N1 is coming down the tracks... right at us.

:vik:

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

Africa

Bird Flu Scare Hits Adamawa, 1,000 Dead Birds Dumped 

Daily Trust (Abuja)
NEWS
March 2, 2006
Posted to the web March 2, 2006

By Abdullahi Tasiu Abubakar

There is apprehension that the bird flu might have reached Adamawa state following the discovery of about one thousand dead chickens and turkey dumped near the main abbatoir in the state capital, Yola, yesterday.

The dead birds were packed in over 40 bags and dumped near the abattoir along Yola-Jimeta road in the state capital by unknown persons.

The state Commissioner for Animal Health, Alhaji Salihu Bello, who took journalists to the scene, described the action as a criminal act.

Alhaji Bello, who is also the state chairman of the Committee on Bird Flu, ordered the burning of the dead birds.

The committee had taken one of the dead birds for onward transfer to the National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom in Jos,for test to find out what sort of disease was responsible for their death.

The commissioner said that at the moment, the state has no confirmed case of bird flu, and that only the result of the expected test could show the true status of the state.

The commissioner had also reported the matter to Governor Boni Haruna who ordered a thorough investigation.

Daily Trust gathered that operatives of the state security service (SSS), have already been ordered to fish out those responsible for dumping the dead birds near the central abattoir.

Although there are no large scale commercial chicken farms in the state, there are many small scale chicken farms and individual chicken farmers who rear the birds in their homes.

Similarly, although the news of the discovery of the dead birds and their dumping has not yet spread widely in the state, the few people who heard of it in Yola have started expressing fears over its possible terrible conse-quences on both health and poultry business in the state.

Many of them said they would henceforth avoid eating chicken and turkey until further notice.

Even before this incident, poultry business was on the decline in the state with many chickens being sold at give-away prices in local markets.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200603020397.html

:vik:

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

France

France reports 11 new cases og H5N1 bird flu

02/03/2006 - 17:03:33

France reported 11 new cases of H5N1 bird flu in wild birds today in an area already hit by the lethal virus.

Laboratory tests detected the virus in a heron, a duck and in nine swans, raising to 29 the total number of cases found among wild birds in the southeastern Ain region, the farming ministry said in a statement.

In response to the new cases, the government was expanding a protection zone to about 300 towns in the area, from about 70 when the first cases of bird flu were confirmed there.

Dozens of countries have banned poultry imports from France after the H5N1 bird flu strain was found on a turkey farm last week in Ain, the first infection of the virus in commercial EU poultry stocks.

http://www.eecho.ie/news/bstory.asp?j=174611450&p=y746yzy56&n=174612210

:vik:

PCViking · Mar 2, 2006

Serbia reports bird flu; tests on dead Iraqi woman

Reuters

LONDON - Iraq, Serbia and Germany reported the latest cases in the spread of bird flu on Thursday and health officials and researchers around the world prepared to fight a possible deadly avian flu pandemic among humans.

Iraq said a woman had died in a suspected case of the H5N1 bird flu virus and Serbia said it had detected its first case of bird flu in a dead swan that was being tested to see if it had the deadly strain.

A cat in Germany became the first mammal in Europe to test positive for the Asian strain of H5N1 causing some concern in pet-loving nations, despite the World Health Organization saying it did not increase the risk to humans.

The latest cases in Europe and the Middle East came hours after U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said it was "just a matter of time" before wild birds and possibly poultry flocks in America contracted H5N1.

U.S. officials said they bought more than 14 million courses of antiviral treatments from GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Roche Holding AG to prepare for a possible human bird flu pandemic.

The United States plans to have enough medication to treat 25 percent of its population in the event of an outbreak.

In Tokyo, Japanese researchers said they had developed a new way of producing the anti-flu drug Tamiflu, considered one of the best defenses against bird flu in humans, that does not rely on natural ingredients and may help ensure more stable supplies.

The H5N1 avian flu virus has killed 94 people in seven countries -- Turkey, Iraq, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Cambodia. It has infected 174, giving it a more than 50 percent fatality rate, but experts are unsure if some people may have had less serious infections that went undetected. Since 2003, H5N1 bird flu has been found in more than 30 countries.

Experts fear that H5N1 will mutate just enough to allow it to pass easily from person to person. If it does so, it could cause a catastrophic pandemic, killing tens of millions of people, because humans lack immunity to the virus.

Iraq said the woman who died of the suspected case of H5N1 lived in the province around the town of Nassiriya in southern Iraq and more tests were being carried out in Baghdad and Cairo.

Two fatal cases of human bird flu, in a teenage girl and her uncle last month, were previously confirmed in the northern Iraqi province of Sulaimaniya, close to the border with Turkey.

SERBIA FINDS BIRD FLU IN SWAN

Serbia said on Thursday it had detected its first case of bird flu in a swan found dead in the region of Sombor, close to the Croatian border.

The Ministry of Agriculture in Belgrade said in a statement the bird tested positive for the H5 strain of avian influenza and samples would be sent to a British laboratory to determine whether the more dangerous H5N1 strain was present.

In Africa, where the H5N1 virus has been detected in Niger and Nigeria leaving African governments worried, Zimbabwe's health ministry warned people in rural areas against keeping poultry in residential houses.

The southern Africa country has been on alert since the H5N2 strain of avian flu, which is not dangerous to humans but can kill birds, was detected among ostriches last December.

The Greek government said on Thursday that it would help poultry farmers hit by bird flu fears with state-backed loans.

Greece has yet to find a single case of bird flu in farmed poultry but chicken consumption has dropped by up to 80 percent since the virus was discovered in the country in February. To date, 19 cases of bird flu have been found in migratory birds.

The Bahamas government said a mystery spate of bird deaths in the Bahamas involved only five birds, not the 21 initially reported, reducing the likelihood of a bird flu outbreak.

The H5N1 virus has been detected in birds in around 20 new countries over the past month alone, crossing into Europe and Africa. The spread is blamed on migratory birds, although some people argue that the poultry trade might play a role.

France, Europe's largest poultry producer, last week became the first country in the European Union to report an outbreak of bird flu on a farm. As many as 43 countries outside the European Union have since banned or restricted French poultry imports.

Dutch farmers have not decided yet whether to vaccinate free range chickens against flu, fearing that vaccination could damage exports, industry groups said on Thursday.

The farm ministry said last week Japan planned to ban Dutch imports when the country starts vaccinating as consumers shun meat from vaccinated animals because of possible health risks.

Dutch farmers fear other countries will ban imports from the Netherlands, a top world poultry exporter and Europe's second biggest producer after France.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1679244

:vik:

CeeBee · Mar 2, 2006

US Government is now pushing flu preps:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/checklist.html

Examples of food and non-perishables
Examples of medical, health, and emergency supplies

Ready-to-eat canned meats, fruits, vegetables, and soups
Prescribed medical supplies such as glucose and blood-pressure monitoring equipment

Protein or fruit bars
Soap and water, or alcohol-based hand wash

Dry cereal or granola
Medicines for fever, such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen

Peanut butter or nuts
Thermometer

Dried fruit
Anti-diarrheal medication

Crackers
Vitamins

Canned juices
Fluids with electrolytes

Bottled water
Cleansing agent/soap

Canned or jarred baby food and formula
Flashlight

Pet food
Batteries

Portable radio

Manual can opener

Garbage bags

Tissues, toilet paper, disposable diapers

Nuthatch · Mar 2, 2006

There are possibilities of bird flu outbreaks in Spring: official

www.chinaview.cn 2006-03-02 19:32:08

BEIJING, March 2 (Xinhuanet) -- There are possibilities of bird flu outbreaks in China during spring and more cases of infected humans may be reported, said Vice-Premier Hui Liangyu on Thursday, at a televised national conference on the prevention and control of the disease.

The forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis, the Vice-Premier said, calling on people to be aware of the gravity of bird flu in the country and to make every effort to implement preventative measures.

Hui is a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and head of the national headquarters on the prevention and control of the highly infectious disease.

Despite major victories in the fight against bird flu since last year, it is still a lengthy and tough job for China to prevent and control the disease, said the official.

As migrating birds move around en masse during the Spring, there are likely to be more epidemic cases, Hui said, noting that there have been reports of bird flu in many countries and regions, in the continents of Europe, Africa and Asia.

He urged all localities to step up monitoring the bird flu situation in 2006, the first year of the 11th Five-Year Program (2006-2010) period. Those who have been suspected of being infected of bird flu must be reported, diagnosed and treated promptly, he stressed.

03/02 | Daily Bird Flu Thread: Bird flu spreading faster, says WHO

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