BIRD FLU probe in BAHAMAS

We may not have much time left before H5N1 appears in the USA 48 states.

Preliminary testing can be done within hours. The fact that the results of the preliminary testing have not been announced, and H5N1 has not been denied, makes it easy to conclude that they have, indeed, found bird flu, but do not want to announce it until they are sure it is the HPAI variety, the deadly form of bird flu. If it is LPAI, the less deadly form, there is still danger. This form has a habit of shifting to HPAI in a matter of months.

I recall reading that the H5N1 has always tested as HPAI so far. Can anyone confirm this? Niman??

In studying bird migration, I've collected the following information, which doesn't lead to happy conclusions:
* On March 5, 1918, the first wave of flu struck Ft. Riley, Kansas.
* Ft. Riley is located at the confluence of two major rivers, and is right next to the Milford Wetlands, where flyways coming from the east and west coast converge in an hourglass shape before spreading out again towards South America. If you think history repeats itself, look to South America.
* Hunting at the Milford Wetlands this time of year focuses on ducks and snow geese returning from South America. Snow geese return to remote areas of Alaska, where die-offs can easily escape human notice.
* Ducks and geese have been identified as non-symptomatic carriers of H5N1 and other bird flus.
* Ducks find mates during the winter, when their flocks merge with others. The male duck leaves his flock to return with his mate to her nesting grounds. Whatever disease he carries is brought directly to his newly adopted summer home. Ducks have summer nesting grounds throughout the United States.
WHO states that H5N1 survives 6 days in a warm environment, outside any living host. (Seasonal flu only survives 18 to 24 hours.) and it survives over 35 days in the cold.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/fact...a/en/index.html

Quote:
Highly pathogenic viruses can survive for long periods in the environment, especially when temperatures are low. For example, the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus can survive in bird faeces for at least 35 days at low temperature (4oC). At a much higher temperature (37oC), H5N1 viruses have been shown to survive, in faecal samples, for six days.


Other websites show research has found H5N1 survives over 90 days in freezing water, with the upper limit not known. H5N1 could have been accumulating in both Arctic and Antarctic regions for years, and is now reaching critical mass, where the contaminated areas are infecting enough birds to spread it beyond the frozen regions.

It is important to note that the Arctic Tern flies straight from Newfoundland to the west coast of Africa, then across the Atlantic to the eastern point of South America. From there it travels to the coldest tip of South America and the Antarctic. The tern flies at high altitudes, skipping the '48 United States, as it jumps continents. It grabs food mid-flight from the ocean, and is not easily seen by humans, until comes ashore to rest with other water fowl. The disconnected discovery of H5N1 in Nigeria and Niger, supports the idea that the Arctic Tern may be spreading H5N1. If so, H5N1 may already be spreading in South America, sofar undetected.

Scientists have been puzzled by lack of apparent pattern to the spread of H5N1. There is no such surprise in a theory that postulates permanent accumulations of H5N1 in the polar regions, spread by the circumpolar migration of birds like the Arctic tern (and shear tail), to warmer climates, where it affects other birds, both local and migrating. These outbreaks would appear to pop up randomly, but generally near known migration routes. Such outbreaks would occur mostly during and immediately after the winter months, then diminish during the summer, because infection in warmer climates requires more direct contact with diseased birds. This theory would predict greater frequency of outbreaks in cold, wet regions, where contaminated mud is tracked around by tires and feet. We are seeing this in Europe now. It would also explain the apparent randomness of human and other mammal infections, when there has been no direct contact with infected birds.

Since I found all this information, I've been paying especially close attention to Africa, South America, and the Caribbean. H5N1 is approaching the United States from many directions now, including Asia, Russia, and Europe, through Alaska. The news media have overlooked the possibility of it coming from the Antarctic or South America, where little is known about bird migration. Let's be alert and not make the same mistake.

Please prepare to see H5N1 in your local bird population. We will eventually find the disease infecting other mammals besides cats. Bird flu is already known to infect cats, horses, pigs, primates, sea mammals - and mice. This means you have more to think about than keeping Fluffy inside. You may be in contact with waterways, streets, and paths contaminated by not only birds, but also mice and other outdoor animals.

There is no telling how soon H5N1 will arrive in the United States, but it is definitely coming. Understand that avoiding bird flu is not like avoiding seasonal flu. In addition to cleaning your hands frequently, you should learn how to disinfect your shoes and clothing after going outside in an area where the virus has become endemic. Watch the news carefully for any outbreak of avian flu in the Americas, whether HPAI or LPAI. Start practicing the new hygiene now, before an emergency comes to your door steps.

If H5N1 does become endemic in America, life as we know it will have to change, before a single case of human flu is ever confirmed

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