Threat of new kind of flu
01/30/2006
Worldwide, concerns are emerging over the risk of a pandemic from a new, potentially deadly strain of influenza that could pass from human to human, reportedly capable of infecting perhaps one out of every four people because humans have no immunization against it. The big question is whether an outbreak of such a devastating virus could be contained at the early stages, keeping it from spreading.
Reacting to appeals from the World Health Organization, the world's nations are turning their attention to this threat. Earlier this month, experts from 23 countries gathered in Tokyo for the inaugural conference on early-stage responses to such epidemics.
This is the first time that mankind has embarked on a quest to contain a new influenza virus outbreak worldwide.
In the past, there has been no way to stop such a virus from spreading. Nowadays, however, antiviral drugs offer the potential to fight threats of this type.
No one, of course, thinks this will be easy. At the Tokyo conference, participants confirmed the importance of coordinating joint countermeasures against the threat.
How do new flu strains develop? The avian influenza virus is believed to either mix with human viruses or mutate, thereby acquiring the capacity of infection by human-to-human contact.
The rising number of people infected with the avian influenza virus is a warning sign. This infection pattern is being seen in Southeast Asia and China, and also brought deaths in Turkey this month. European countries are increasingly issuing alerts that the menace is "at the front door," with some experts going so far as to warn that the fuse igniting an outbreak has already been lit.
The chances are high that a new strain of avian influenza will emerge somewhere in Asia, a region that offers widespread opportunities for bird and human interaction. In any containment policy, the key to success lies in early detection if and when such a deadly influenza strain should emerge.
Reports about new infections of the avian influenza virus have taken 17 days on average to reach WHO. This would be too late. According to Shigeru Omi, director of the WHO's Regional Office for the Western Pacific, the crucial period for containing a new virus lies in the first two to three weeks after it appears.
Once a new strain is pinpointed, WHO sends experts and treatment drugs to the local area. In one scenario envisioned by WHO, in the event that 20 persons are found infected in a given region, quarantine restrictions should be placed on human movements and gatherings within a 5-kilometer radius of the place where the infections are centered. Drugs should be administered. The theory is that if drugs are administered quickly to 90 percent of the area's population, the virus can likely be prevented from spreading to other regions.
In practice, however, there is no guarantee that such a prompt response will occur.
In some regions, residents will need to be appealed to directly to ensure they visit medical institutions or public health centers immediately after symptoms suspected of being an avian flu, or even a new strain are confirmed.
Information must not be withheld and must be disclosed immediately. Governments must also enact legal measures to curtail the public movement and activities of residents to prevent a further spread of infection.
Most important are prompt and effective responses, regardless of where a new flu strain is discovered. Each country must draft detailed procedures, closely adapted to local conditions, that detail actions to be taken from the moment an initial report is received to the launch of countermeasures.
Japan can assist by supplying drugs, addressing appeals to residents, training human resources and in other vital areas. We must create an effective framework of support measures.
--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 29(IHT/Asahi: January 30,2006)
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200601300091.html
