Chapter 1
Wednesday, 7:10PM
Just got the strangest ever "Amber Alert" on my phone. "Winter Storm Amber" will hit us in 48 hours. A 48 hour warning before a "Winter Storm" at the end of October? This is Georgia, part of the "Sunny South" - we may get a little freezing rain this early but not the foot or more of snow I would associate with a "Winter Storm". Then the alarm from the SAME weather radio with the audio and scroll of "Winter Storm Emergency" - like when an F5 tornado is on the ground and not expected to lift any time soon. Better go to weather.com or noaa.gov so I can see what's coming, how bad it's been where it's already hit and how bad they think it will be here.
Seems 100 million other people had the same ideas. I'm seeing assorted numerical internet errors* trying to get to weather.com plus some text messages of "Network Congestion", "Network Overload" and "Server Busy". Get more of the same messages trying to reach noaa.gov. Maybe Weather Underground? Nah, same messages when trying wunderground.com. The internet weather information appears to be very popular today. Guess I'll fall back to the least inaccurate local weather-guesser and see what Channel 11's TV weatherman has to say.
Looks like they did their homework on this one: time- and date-stamped log of NOAA bulletins and airport weather reports from across Canada. The storm came down from the Arctic and is currently dumping the last few inches of a forecast four feet of snow on Winnipeg, Canada after four inches of ice four days ago and tonight's low there will be -36C which is about -33F. First the ice and then a foot of snow each day - that certainly puts a large number of people and businesses with aerial power feeds in the dark and in the cold unless they have heat which doesn't require power.
Driving time from there to us is about 25 hours so the "48 hours" in the forecast says the storm is moving at about 35MPH. Even if the storm decreases in intensity by the time it gets here - typical winter storm behavior as they move into the warmer air of the Southern US - our forecast is "more than an inch" of ice from the freezing rain on the front side of the storm and then the temperature dropping and "12 to 18 inches" of snow - and people here thought the 7 to 12 inches of snow we got across the county a few years back was "a lot" of snow (although that forecast started as "one half to one inch of snow on grassy areas"; sure hope this storm doesn't escalate like that) - and then the low temperatures after this storm being around -5F (-20C). I'll need to use the inside shutoff valves for the outside hydrants so I can drain those hydrants and also roll the hoses out and drain them. Probably need the small air compressor running to clean out the mechanism on the hose reel as it's otherwise impossible to empty it completely.
I muted the TV sound but they just popped up a crawl at the bottom of the screen:
'Stay tuned at 8PM for our two hour Special Report on "Safe and Warm in a Winter Storm". Go to tv11.com/storm for PDF files you can download on food, water, staying warm and other important topics for a major Winter Storm. If possible, print a copy so you'll have a reference if your phone or the internet isn't available after the storm hits. Similar information is available at fema.gov, gema.gov and redcross.org.'
You never see the mainstream media admitting that there might be a situation out of people's control. Wonder who got that special dispensation from the Pope? How many people only have an electronic copy of important documents these days? Half? More than half? Are they aware that the usage time for those documents is limited by the phone's average battery life? No battery equals no readable document.
I'll bet the grocery store parking lots are already jammed and every cart and handbasket is being piled with the "ice" and "snow" essentials of bread, milk and eggs. Does that typical list mean that French toast is the official food for a winter storm? We won't be part of that hysteria - nice to have a multi-week pantry.
I will check that the generators all start and produce power OK, but that will be during daylight tomorrow. Yes, more than one generator. A 1600 watt inverter generator for most things - fridge, freezer, blower on the gas-fired furnace, although we'd use the solar power system for the first twelve to sixteen hours of a power outage. The inverter gen is also first choice for recharging the battery bank if there's not enough sun. The storm is forecast to hit us around 8AM which means the freezing rain will likely have done all of its damage before dark and I don't want to be out in the dark, in freezing rain, trying to get a generator started. The fridge should be OK for eight hours if the doors aren't opened and the freezer for sixteen hours, so both should be fine even if they didn't have power overnight. The 3000 watt 120 volt generator is the next choice (power for fridge, freezer and furnace plus an electric chainsaw, circular saw or reciprocating saw - one tool at a time) and the 5000 watt 120/240 volt gen if we have damage from the storm and I need to run multiple power tools at the same time (simultaneous power for everything previously listed and a 10 inch table saw).
We should plan on not having grid power for at least a week, possibly longer, based on previous outages from freezing rain and "a lot" of snow. We typically would have sun again after the storm passes - that's been four to six days where this storm hit in Canada so we can plan based on that time frame. We'll be using the inverter gen for perhaps six to eight hours on each non-sunny day. That many hours is about a gallon of gas at the loads we'll have on it. There's 15-20 gallons of treated gasoline out in the lawn equipment shed so we're good for at least two weeks of non-sunny days. If things go as far sideways as they did in Texas in February of 2021, we might be getting gas from the tanks of our vehicles - yes, I can do that in spite of the anti-siphon bit in the filler neck. We "fill at half" on both vehicles so that's gas for at least another two weeks.
Thinking of Texas - will our local natural gas feeds also by affected by that level of cold for an extended period? If so, will there be enough pressure/flow to keep our 95,000BTU furnace supplied? If not, will there be enough pressure/flow so we can drop back to the 30,000BTU gas logs in the huge wood-rated masonry fireplace in the family room? That ton of brick and mortar radiates heat into the room for hours after the gas logs are turned off and the logs don't need AC power because the remote and the gas valve operate from AA or D cells and I have a stock of both. Then there is the 22,000BTU kerosene heater to fall back on and there are a couple weeks of kero in the shed. We heated with the gas logs plus the kero heater for two weeks when the then-almost-new, high-tech, high efficiency gas-fired furnace ate its controller board and the promised "three day" board repair turnaround took 14 days - thankfully parts and labor were under warranty. Not quite as cold that January as the current forecast (those lows were only in the teens) but we do have experience with alternate heating in cold weather and this time I could use the furnace blower occasionally to move warm air around and ensure the pipes in the basement don't freeze.
The gas logs have an input for LP so maybe use the tanks from the gas grill for as long as they last? My spreadsheet on propane tank size versus burner BTU versus hours says a full five gallon / 20lb tank is good for about 15 hours at 30,000BTU. A full tank plus maybe half a tank would be 22 hours. If we must drop back to that level of heating, we can close off most of the house and live in a much smaller space - probably spending a lot of time near the fireplace and having the gas logs on for one hour out of four or whatever is needed to have comfortable space and the longest possible life from the tanks of propane. I should check craigslist.org for any free tanks and see about getting them refilled - lots cheaper than buying a new tank.
That was a good thought but checking the manual for the gas logs lists one 100lb tank as the minimum supply for the gas logs. As cold as things will be, that should probably be two 100lb tanks feeding a tee to ensure there's enough vapor pressure to drive the gas logs to full output. A 100lb tank is 25 gallons but the tanks are typically filled to 80% so effectively 20 gallons per tank. It's rare that I see tanks that big on Craig's List so I'll do a search as far back as it goes and see if there are any.
I found two tanks for free and they're just ten miles away. How long would that run the gas logs? That's 40 gallons at 91,500BTU/gallon or 3,700,000BTU. Divide that by the 30,000BTU the gas logs need and I get 123.3 hours. Divide that by the 16 hours/day we might be awake and I get 7.7 days. The current price of propane is the same as unleaded regular: $3.59/gallon. That makes 40 gallons $143.60 or $18.65/day or a little over $1/hour to stay warm for 16 hours. Expensive, but better than being cold if there is a problem with the natural gas supply - and propane stores almost forever if I don't need it for this event. The dual-stage regulator to get tank pressure down to 11" WC is about $45 and lowes.com says a store near me has them. That takes the total initial cost to about $180 but the regulator is to be amortized over a period of years. If I can get all these things before the weather goes to crap...
There is a "four man" tent which could be erected in the family room and we have four sleeping bags, so a warm place to sleep once the mass of the fireplace has been warmed but perhaps a bit chilly when you get out of the sleeping bag(s) the next morning - if we stay on the same sleep schedule and aren't keeping watch overnight. Keeping watch? Maybe not needed until that foot-plus of snow has partially melted and people can sneak around. However, it's always possible that a watch might be needed when power is off for multiple days, even with the snow. I'm not looking forward to being armed and awake at 4AM.
As long as the natural gas lasts at even a low pressure/flow, we can use the burners on the cooktop - they're quite happy with a grill lighter instead of the electronic spark lighter. We could even use the Coleman camp stove oven on a burner to bake a cake, but we're more likely to be baking biscuits or cornbread in a Dutch oven or a cast iron skillet. Having the camp oven in place and heated for a baking session would warm the kitchen for a while. If we lose natural gas, we have Coleman fuel, unleaded gas and propane options for the Coleman stove. The propane option is best for cooking indoors (have several one pound cylinders plus the hose and regulator for a 20lb tank and an adapter to fill the one pound cylinders from a 20lb tank). Outdoor cooking would be on the grill, with the grill lid open to serve as a windbreak and the actual cooking might be done using the Coleman stove which would be sitting on the grill's cooking racks. I'd be close to the house's back door and partially shielded from wind by the house, so that's probably the least bad place for cooking outside during a winter storm. That cooking would be done using Coleman liquid fuel or unleaded gasoline because it's outside and the ventilation is excellent. Other indoor cooking could be on a Sterno stove - OK for heating water for tea or coffee or for heating soup - or a small camping stove burning scrap wood in the other fireplace.
Extended periods at -5F might cause problems with the County Water System so I should put the WaterBOB in the bathtub in the basement and fill it to have 80 gallons of potable water and ensure all eight of the five gallon water totes are full - and bring two of those up to the main level to have water in the kitchen and bath as needed for cooking and hand washing if we lose County Water. 120 gallons / two people / two gallons / person / day comes out to 30 days so that should be enough. Maybe bring in the remaining food grade barrel that never saw service as a rain barrel? That could store another 55 gallons of potable water and we could use water from there for showers, washing clothes and bathing and not affect our drinking/cooking water supply. I should make a paper list of these things and mark off items as they are completed.
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I have my written list and it's on the first page of a wire-bound notebook - plenty of space to add to my list and space to keep a diary / log / history of our experience with Winter Storm Amber. Having a weather warning 48 hours in advance makes this feel as serious as a hurricane, but I'm concerned that there will be people who ignore this warning with the same levels of stupidity and stubbornness as those who refuse to evacuate because of a hurricane until they're on the roofs of their houses and waiting for a boat.
If we don't have grid power, the heat pump that serves the upstairs bedrooms and bath won't be running. The gas-fired furnace for this level isn't big enough to heat that space which means the gas logs and kerosene heater certainly can't heat it, so I'll close off the doors leading to those stairs. Add a note in ALL CAPS:
DRAIN UPPER LEVEL PIPES AND PUT MINERAL OIL IN THE P-TRAPS.
That can be done when/if we lose power. I'll go ahead and take the bottles of mineral oil up there as a reminder.
Anything else?
Be sure all the flashlights, phones, tablets, laptops, powerbanks and spare laptop batteries are charged. Include the Chromebook in case we just want a quick check of email or weather - if any sites are available. If power is out over a large area, the U-verse phone / TV / internet service will also be out so the only internet access will be via our cell phones - if they have service. Either phone can do "hotspot" so we could use the phone for internet access and connect the Chromebook or a tablet via the phone as a low power internet access device with a much bigger screen.
I know exactly where the tire chains for the truck are stored but I'm not likely to be out in more than three inches of snow as the truck is two wheel drive and three inches of snow is about its comfortable limit - even if the ground clearance is eight inches.
If we lose grid power over a large area or it stays cold too long, will we also lose the County Sewage Treatment Plant? Will there be a "Don't flush" email / Amber Alert / whatever or will the working radio / TV stations (if any) be telling us "If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, flush it down." or will the message be "Use a trash bag"? We're good on that, as the commode chair (an unused leftover from my back surgery several years ago - the bathroom was just a few steps farther away and a much better choice) - could be adapted to being placed over a five gallon bucket with a "Double Doodie" bag in it and we'd have a sturdy seat with arms instead of a toilet seat on a not-very-stable five gallon plastic bucket. I think the chair is the better choice for someone over 70.
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* 200, 301, 404, & Other Numbers: HTTP Error Codes
Wednesday, 7:10PM
Just got the strangest ever "Amber Alert" on my phone. "Winter Storm Amber" will hit us in 48 hours. A 48 hour warning before a "Winter Storm" at the end of October? This is Georgia, part of the "Sunny South" - we may get a little freezing rain this early but not the foot or more of snow I would associate with a "Winter Storm". Then the alarm from the SAME weather radio with the audio and scroll of "Winter Storm Emergency" - like when an F5 tornado is on the ground and not expected to lift any time soon. Better go to weather.com or noaa.gov so I can see what's coming, how bad it's been where it's already hit and how bad they think it will be here.
Seems 100 million other people had the same ideas. I'm seeing assorted numerical internet errors* trying to get to weather.com plus some text messages of "Network Congestion", "Network Overload" and "Server Busy". Get more of the same messages trying to reach noaa.gov. Maybe Weather Underground? Nah, same messages when trying wunderground.com. The internet weather information appears to be very popular today. Guess I'll fall back to the least inaccurate local weather-guesser and see what Channel 11's TV weatherman has to say.
Looks like they did their homework on this one: time- and date-stamped log of NOAA bulletins and airport weather reports from across Canada. The storm came down from the Arctic and is currently dumping the last few inches of a forecast four feet of snow on Winnipeg, Canada after four inches of ice four days ago and tonight's low there will be -36C which is about -33F. First the ice and then a foot of snow each day - that certainly puts a large number of people and businesses with aerial power feeds in the dark and in the cold unless they have heat which doesn't require power.
Driving time from there to us is about 25 hours so the "48 hours" in the forecast says the storm is moving at about 35MPH. Even if the storm decreases in intensity by the time it gets here - typical winter storm behavior as they move into the warmer air of the Southern US - our forecast is "more than an inch" of ice from the freezing rain on the front side of the storm and then the temperature dropping and "12 to 18 inches" of snow - and people here thought the 7 to 12 inches of snow we got across the county a few years back was "a lot" of snow (although that forecast started as "one half to one inch of snow on grassy areas"; sure hope this storm doesn't escalate like that) - and then the low temperatures after this storm being around -5F (-20C). I'll need to use the inside shutoff valves for the outside hydrants so I can drain those hydrants and also roll the hoses out and drain them. Probably need the small air compressor running to clean out the mechanism on the hose reel as it's otherwise impossible to empty it completely.
I muted the TV sound but they just popped up a crawl at the bottom of the screen:
'Stay tuned at 8PM for our two hour Special Report on "Safe and Warm in a Winter Storm". Go to tv11.com/storm for PDF files you can download on food, water, staying warm and other important topics for a major Winter Storm. If possible, print a copy so you'll have a reference if your phone or the internet isn't available after the storm hits. Similar information is available at fema.gov, gema.gov and redcross.org.'
You never see the mainstream media admitting that there might be a situation out of people's control. Wonder who got that special dispensation from the Pope? How many people only have an electronic copy of important documents these days? Half? More than half? Are they aware that the usage time for those documents is limited by the phone's average battery life? No battery equals no readable document.
I'll bet the grocery store parking lots are already jammed and every cart and handbasket is being piled with the "ice" and "snow" essentials of bread, milk and eggs. Does that typical list mean that French toast is the official food for a winter storm? We won't be part of that hysteria - nice to have a multi-week pantry.
I will check that the generators all start and produce power OK, but that will be during daylight tomorrow. Yes, more than one generator. A 1600 watt inverter generator for most things - fridge, freezer, blower on the gas-fired furnace, although we'd use the solar power system for the first twelve to sixteen hours of a power outage. The inverter gen is also first choice for recharging the battery bank if there's not enough sun. The storm is forecast to hit us around 8AM which means the freezing rain will likely have done all of its damage before dark and I don't want to be out in the dark, in freezing rain, trying to get a generator started. The fridge should be OK for eight hours if the doors aren't opened and the freezer for sixteen hours, so both should be fine even if they didn't have power overnight. The 3000 watt 120 volt generator is the next choice (power for fridge, freezer and furnace plus an electric chainsaw, circular saw or reciprocating saw - one tool at a time) and the 5000 watt 120/240 volt gen if we have damage from the storm and I need to run multiple power tools at the same time (simultaneous power for everything previously listed and a 10 inch table saw).
We should plan on not having grid power for at least a week, possibly longer, based on previous outages from freezing rain and "a lot" of snow. We typically would have sun again after the storm passes - that's been four to six days where this storm hit in Canada so we can plan based on that time frame. We'll be using the inverter gen for perhaps six to eight hours on each non-sunny day. That many hours is about a gallon of gas at the loads we'll have on it. There's 15-20 gallons of treated gasoline out in the lawn equipment shed so we're good for at least two weeks of non-sunny days. If things go as far sideways as they did in Texas in February of 2021, we might be getting gas from the tanks of our vehicles - yes, I can do that in spite of the anti-siphon bit in the filler neck. We "fill at half" on both vehicles so that's gas for at least another two weeks.
Thinking of Texas - will our local natural gas feeds also by affected by that level of cold for an extended period? If so, will there be enough pressure/flow to keep our 95,000BTU furnace supplied? If not, will there be enough pressure/flow so we can drop back to the 30,000BTU gas logs in the huge wood-rated masonry fireplace in the family room? That ton of brick and mortar radiates heat into the room for hours after the gas logs are turned off and the logs don't need AC power because the remote and the gas valve operate from AA or D cells and I have a stock of both. Then there is the 22,000BTU kerosene heater to fall back on and there are a couple weeks of kero in the shed. We heated with the gas logs plus the kero heater for two weeks when the then-almost-new, high-tech, high efficiency gas-fired furnace ate its controller board and the promised "three day" board repair turnaround took 14 days - thankfully parts and labor were under warranty. Not quite as cold that January as the current forecast (those lows were only in the teens) but we do have experience with alternate heating in cold weather and this time I could use the furnace blower occasionally to move warm air around and ensure the pipes in the basement don't freeze.
The gas logs have an input for LP so maybe use the tanks from the gas grill for as long as they last? My spreadsheet on propane tank size versus burner BTU versus hours says a full five gallon / 20lb tank is good for about 15 hours at 30,000BTU. A full tank plus maybe half a tank would be 22 hours. If we must drop back to that level of heating, we can close off most of the house and live in a much smaller space - probably spending a lot of time near the fireplace and having the gas logs on for one hour out of four or whatever is needed to have comfortable space and the longest possible life from the tanks of propane. I should check craigslist.org for any free tanks and see about getting them refilled - lots cheaper than buying a new tank.
That was a good thought but checking the manual for the gas logs lists one 100lb tank as the minimum supply for the gas logs. As cold as things will be, that should probably be two 100lb tanks feeding a tee to ensure there's enough vapor pressure to drive the gas logs to full output. A 100lb tank is 25 gallons but the tanks are typically filled to 80% so effectively 20 gallons per tank. It's rare that I see tanks that big on Craig's List so I'll do a search as far back as it goes and see if there are any.
I found two tanks for free and they're just ten miles away. How long would that run the gas logs? That's 40 gallons at 91,500BTU/gallon or 3,700,000BTU. Divide that by the 30,000BTU the gas logs need and I get 123.3 hours. Divide that by the 16 hours/day we might be awake and I get 7.7 days. The current price of propane is the same as unleaded regular: $3.59/gallon. That makes 40 gallons $143.60 or $18.65/day or a little over $1/hour to stay warm for 16 hours. Expensive, but better than being cold if there is a problem with the natural gas supply - and propane stores almost forever if I don't need it for this event. The dual-stage regulator to get tank pressure down to 11" WC is about $45 and lowes.com says a store near me has them. That takes the total initial cost to about $180 but the regulator is to be amortized over a period of years. If I can get all these things before the weather goes to crap...
There is a "four man" tent which could be erected in the family room and we have four sleeping bags, so a warm place to sleep once the mass of the fireplace has been warmed but perhaps a bit chilly when you get out of the sleeping bag(s) the next morning - if we stay on the same sleep schedule and aren't keeping watch overnight. Keeping watch? Maybe not needed until that foot-plus of snow has partially melted and people can sneak around. However, it's always possible that a watch might be needed when power is off for multiple days, even with the snow. I'm not looking forward to being armed and awake at 4AM.
As long as the natural gas lasts at even a low pressure/flow, we can use the burners on the cooktop - they're quite happy with a grill lighter instead of the electronic spark lighter. We could even use the Coleman camp stove oven on a burner to bake a cake, but we're more likely to be baking biscuits or cornbread in a Dutch oven or a cast iron skillet. Having the camp oven in place and heated for a baking session would warm the kitchen for a while. If we lose natural gas, we have Coleman fuel, unleaded gas and propane options for the Coleman stove. The propane option is best for cooking indoors (have several one pound cylinders plus the hose and regulator for a 20lb tank and an adapter to fill the one pound cylinders from a 20lb tank). Outdoor cooking would be on the grill, with the grill lid open to serve as a windbreak and the actual cooking might be done using the Coleman stove which would be sitting on the grill's cooking racks. I'd be close to the house's back door and partially shielded from wind by the house, so that's probably the least bad place for cooking outside during a winter storm. That cooking would be done using Coleman liquid fuel or unleaded gasoline because it's outside and the ventilation is excellent. Other indoor cooking could be on a Sterno stove - OK for heating water for tea or coffee or for heating soup - or a small camping stove burning scrap wood in the other fireplace.
Extended periods at -5F might cause problems with the County Water System so I should put the WaterBOB in the bathtub in the basement and fill it to have 80 gallons of potable water and ensure all eight of the five gallon water totes are full - and bring two of those up to the main level to have water in the kitchen and bath as needed for cooking and hand washing if we lose County Water. 120 gallons / two people / two gallons / person / day comes out to 30 days so that should be enough. Maybe bring in the remaining food grade barrel that never saw service as a rain barrel? That could store another 55 gallons of potable water and we could use water from there for showers, washing clothes and bathing and not affect our drinking/cooking water supply. I should make a paper list of these things and mark off items as they are completed.
---
I have my written list and it's on the first page of a wire-bound notebook - plenty of space to add to my list and space to keep a diary / log / history of our experience with Winter Storm Amber. Having a weather warning 48 hours in advance makes this feel as serious as a hurricane, but I'm concerned that there will be people who ignore this warning with the same levels of stupidity and stubbornness as those who refuse to evacuate because of a hurricane until they're on the roofs of their houses and waiting for a boat.
If we don't have grid power, the heat pump that serves the upstairs bedrooms and bath won't be running. The gas-fired furnace for this level isn't big enough to heat that space which means the gas logs and kerosene heater certainly can't heat it, so I'll close off the doors leading to those stairs. Add a note in ALL CAPS:
DRAIN UPPER LEVEL PIPES AND PUT MINERAL OIL IN THE P-TRAPS.
That can be done when/if we lose power. I'll go ahead and take the bottles of mineral oil up there as a reminder.
Anything else?
Be sure all the flashlights, phones, tablets, laptops, powerbanks and spare laptop batteries are charged. Include the Chromebook in case we just want a quick check of email or weather - if any sites are available. If power is out over a large area, the U-verse phone / TV / internet service will also be out so the only internet access will be via our cell phones - if they have service. Either phone can do "hotspot" so we could use the phone for internet access and connect the Chromebook or a tablet via the phone as a low power internet access device with a much bigger screen.
I know exactly where the tire chains for the truck are stored but I'm not likely to be out in more than three inches of snow as the truck is two wheel drive and three inches of snow is about its comfortable limit - even if the ground clearance is eight inches.
If we lose grid power over a large area or it stays cold too long, will we also lose the County Sewage Treatment Plant? Will there be a "Don't flush" email / Amber Alert / whatever or will the working radio / TV stations (if any) be telling us "If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, flush it down." or will the message be "Use a trash bag"? We're good on that, as the commode chair (an unused leftover from my back surgery several years ago - the bathroom was just a few steps farther away and a much better choice) - could be adapted to being placed over a five gallon bucket with a "Double Doodie" bag in it and we'd have a sturdy seat with arms instead of a toilet seat on a not-very-stable five gallon plastic bucket. I think the chair is the better choice for someone over 70.
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* 200, 301, 404, & Other Numbers: HTTP Error Codes
