FOOD Who to believe.

Wyominglarry

Veteran Member
A friend of mine I see at the gym each morning was raised on a farm in eastern Wyoming on the border with Nebraska. He said most farmers usually order and lock in prices for their seeds and fertilizer in the fall and do not wait for the spring to order. He said most are more concerned about the drought than what seeds and fertilizer costs and many hedge their energy costs to avoid spikes in oil or natural gas.
He said the drought is the major cause of what will be a very poor fall harvest and not the war with Iran. He did not know any farmers that are concerned about the higher costs for seeds and fertilizer that many are predicting will bankrupt farmers this fall. He said with crop insurance farmers will survive.
It will be the reduced amount of most major crops like corn, wheat, and soy that are the big concern for all the Wall Street analysts due to those are needed for the beef, pork, and chicken industry to feed their animals. The cattle inventory for all of the US is sitting at a 75 year low, so less crops may not be a problem to feed the cattle.
Also, with less wheat the junk food industry may not have enough wheat to make their poison food. I think that is a big positive.
He thinks that all this fear about famine is BS and there will be plenty of food this coming fall and winter.
Perhaps in other places around the world it might be a problem, but he says not in America.
I appreciate his views, since he knows what is really going on with the farms in America.
 

Rabbit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A friend of mine I see at the gym each morning was raised on a farm in eastern Wyoming on the border with Nebraska. He said most farmers usually order and lock in prices for their seeds and fertilizer in the fall and do not wait for the spring to order. He said most are more concerned about the drought than what seeds and fertilizer costs and many hedge their energy costs to avoid spikes in oil or natural gas.
He said the drought is the major cause of what will be a very poor fall harvest and not the war with Iran. He did not know any farmers that are concerned about the higher costs for seeds and fertilizer that many are predicting will bankrupt farmers this fall. He said with crop insurance farmers will survive.
It will be the reduced amount of most major crops like corn, wheat, and soy that are the big concern for all the Wall Street analysts due to those are needed for the beef, pork, and chicken industry to feed their animals. The cattle inventory for all of the US is sitting at a 75 year low, so less crops may not be a problem to feed the cattle.
Also, with less wheat the junk food industry may not have enough wheat to make their poison food. I think that is a big positive.
He thinks that all this fear about famine is BS and there will be plenty of food this coming fall and winter.
Perhaps in other places around the world it might be a problem, but he says not in America.
I appreciate his views, since he knows what is really going on with the farms in America.
That really sounds about right. When my father farmed, he said that if drought was predicted, plant seeds deeper. It worked for him.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
…plenty of food? At what price? The food does little good if people can’t afford it and that is the other side of the coin. The inflation headed our way is breathtaking. Not only because of drought, fertilizer and diesel prices but the government paying it’s bills by printing more funny money.

One statement can be made with confidence I think…..the grocery bills won’t be going down six months from now. All these pricing factors are boding a very ill wind famine or not.
 

dstraito

TB Fanatic
I believe farmers are at the mercy of market pricing both in selling and consuming, one of the issues with things like fertilizer and seeds is making sure you are able to get a slice of the finite portion of resources. Higher costs are still better than not being about to get the seeds and you are competing with other farmers. If there is excessive demand, the prices will go up as resources are consumed. The resources will be purchased as the fear of not being able to get any increases.

OTOH, the demand might fall and they lock in a higher price than they could have obtained them at later, which puts the people buying them later at a competitive edge.

I do not have a crystal ball about the availability of food but it is my belief TPTB have been planning on food shortages for quite a while. It is right out of the Communist handbook, control the food, control the people. I am not sure when they will pull the trigger on that but it is probably sooner rather than later.

If you listen to any WEF announcements, they actively talk about a famine.

In the last few years, major meat distributors and plants have been burned. Millions of chickens have been culled when they find one or a few birds with possible bird flu.

They are dropping Lonestar ticks which cause AlphaGal syndrome where people get allergic to red meat for the rest of their life.

There are onerous rules and restrictions about using GMO seeds and products.

Since it will be a while before fertilizers and production can scale up, it seems this coming year would be a good candidate for shortages.
 

Scrapman

Veteran Member
The auquafir in the grain belt has been dropping 6 foot a year farmers are fighting for well drillers to dig deeper wells on a yearly basis. My father told me 30 years ago that the rest of the country will eventually look to the great lakes for pipelines to keep areas that have no water to continue to be profitable.
 

bracketquant

Has No Life - Lives on TB
…plenty of food? At what price? The food does little good if people can’t afford it and that is the other side of the coin. The inflation headed our way is breathtaking. Not only because of drought, fertilizer and diesel prices but the government paying it’s bills by printing more funny money.

One statement can be made with confidence I think…..the grocery bills won’t be going down six months from now. All these pricing factors are boding a very ill wind famine or not.
At what price?

Wheat flour at $0.39/lb. white rice at $0.59/lb, pinto beans at $0.89/lb, and bone-in skin-on chicken thighs at $0.99/lb are examples of food prices, here. At minimum wage income for employment in most states, current food prices have likely never been much cheaper. Working 30 hours/week, or less, can be a larger problem of affordability for some people.

Now, if people only want to buy and eat far more expensive food, like many cuts of beef at $20 to $30/ lb, they might find a reality check coming soon.
 

jward

passin' thru
He thinks that all this fear about famine is BS and there will be plenty of food this coming fall and winter.
Perhaps in other places around the world it might be a problem, but he says not in America.
I appreciate his views, since he knows what is really going on with the farms in America.

I do not wish to denigrate the good faith opinions that see the problems ahead of us- on paper one possible future does show us suffering a bit.

The other side of the coin is that we always have one thing or another that portends bad news for one segment or another, and people who profit by peddling the bad news noise. Even when it does hit, though, we somehow keep on keeping on and it is rarely the Doom-a-gasm with a capital D that it was forecast.

Estimates seemto reliably run some 30-40% food waste, so there clearly is fat, no pun intended, left to be cut in our domestic/individual food supplies.
 

King Samson

I'm Here
He thinks that all this fear about famine is BS and there will be plenty of food this coming fall and winter.
Perhaps in other places around the world it might be a problem, but he says not in America.
I think he is right, and here's the reason why. No one yet mentioned this.

If we have lower crop volumes here, because of drought or fertilizer, we still have an Ace in the Hole. We just reduce our food Exports to other countries, and keep it here. We Export a ton of food now:

Overview of U.S. Agricultural Exports​

In 2024, the United States exported nearly $176 billion in agricultural products. This amount represented about 10.2% of all goods exported that year.

Key Export Products​

The main categories of agricultural exports include:
  • Grains
  • Soybeans
  • Beef
  • Pork

Top Export Markets​

The leading markets for U.S. agricultural exports are:
RankCountryExport Value (in billions)
1Mexico$30.32
2Canada$28.4
3ChinaNot specified
4European UnionNot specified
These markets are crucial for U.S. agricultural trade, with Mexico and Canada being the largest buyers.
USDA USAFacts
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Why would we change what we are doing now? We are draining our SPR at a rapid pace and sending most of it overseas in a really stupid move. For our government to reserve our oil or food for U.S. citizens means they would have to start putting us first….which would be a first btw.
 

CaryC

TB Fanatic
@Wyominglarry a personal observation and situational awareness:

Concerning the Natchez Trace corridor from Tupelo, MS to Florence, AL roughly 90 miles and borders all farm land (meaning it doesn't go through any cities/towns/communities).

That corridor did not get to plant anything last year in spring through early summer due to an excess in rain. They could not get tractors in the fields. Except when it dried out in middle summer then they planted 6 week soybeans. Short plants at maturity and much less produce.

The year before it was all planted in cotton. The entire corridor was in cotton.

This year with few exceptions for soybeans it is entirely in corn. And the fields are so big they go as far as the eye can see. 90 miles of nothing but corn.

A question: last year when there was no planting of corn or cotton did you notice the price of things? And the year before when there was only cotton?

I know this about the fields because we take my MIL to her sister's twice a year. Where she stays for a couple of weeks. MIL lives in Tupelo, sister lives in Florence. Spring and Fall every year like clockwork.

2nd to this I think much of the "news" about is coming from headlines. Not in depth reading in articles.

An article I read yesterday had the headline something like "Grain shortages will cause an increase in prices." Reading the article the grain they were talking about was "rice". Ark, is No. 1 in rice production in the US. It wasn't THAT rice. and the increase in prices was in SE Asia, NOT the US.
 

mecoastie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Drought is the big factor for now. If the fertilizer and fuel prices stay high they will affect farms this fall. Fuel for the harvests and fertilizer for winter wheat and following 2027 lock ins. Fuel prices will also impact transportation and production. All adding costs to the consumer. That said we grow about twice what we consume so we can in theory lose half production and still feed the country.
 

Terrwyn

Has No Life - Lives on TB
…plenty of food? At what price? The food does little good if people can’t afford it and that is the other side of the coin. The inflation headed our way is breathtaking. Not only because of drought, fertilizer and diesel prices but the government paying it’s bills by printing more funny money.

One statement can be made with confidence I think…..the grocery bills won’t be going down six months from now. All these pricing factors are boding a very ill wind famine or not.
Not just headed our way already breathtaking.
 

changed

Preferred pronouns: dude/bro
I think he is right, and here's the reason why. No one yet mentioned this.

If we have lower crop volumes here, because of drought or fertilizer, we still have an Ace in the Hole. We just reduce our food Exports to other countries, and keep it here. We Export a ton of food now:

Overview of U.S. Agricultural Exports​

In 2024, the United States exported nearly $176 billion in agricultural products. This amount represented about 10.2% of all goods exported that year.

Key Export Products​

The main categories of agricultural exports include:
  • Grains
  • Soybeans
  • Beef
  • Pork

Top Export Markets​

The leading markets for U.S. agricultural exports are:
RankCountryExport Value (in billions)
1Mexico$30.32
2Canada$28.4
3ChinaNot specified
4European UnionNot specified
These markets are crucial for U.S. agricultural trade, with Mexico and Canada being the largest buyers.
USDA USAFacts

Commodities go to the highest bidder. If that happens to be China, then we will be SOOL. Start your survival garden now.
 

Terrwyn

Has No Life - Lives on TB
At what price?

Wheat flour at $0.39/lb. white rice at $0.59/lb, pinto beans at $0.89/lb, and bone-in skin-on chicken thighs at $0.99/lb are examples of food prices, here. At minimum wage income for employment in most states, current food prices have likely never been much cheaper. Working 30 hours/week, or less, can be a larger problem of affordability for some people.

Now, if people only want to buy and eat far more expensive food, like many cuts of beef at $20 to $30/ lb, they might find a reality check coming soon.
I dont know what state you all live in but white rice and pinto beans were never part of our diet in Nebr. Or chicken thighs. When we had chicken it was either whole or whole cut up my Mom's special way. We were heavy on Pork, Beef Roasts, Pheasant etc. We ate Great Northern Beans and Yankee cornbread. The cheapest organic beans are 3 bucks on Amazon for a lb. I doubt many would even believe how much it costs me at Sprouts weekly .8 bucks a loaf for organic bread.
 

Just Plain Mom

Rockin' the Ozarks
I'm not sure it matters who you believe. Believe what your eyes and recent prices tell you.

Can it hurt you to prepare for potentially higher prices? (Because when do prices go down? Rarely...) It can't. If prices stay the same, you'll be great. If prices go up, you'll be ahead of the game.

We don't eat rice any more (due to diabetes) and beans sparingly, so some of the cheaper options are off the table. But Husband has increased the number of tomato plants so that we can can more salsa and sauce, and we're considering drying as well. He has increased the number of holes in our hydroponic system(s) for lettuce. Planted more cabbage to store. These things won't hurt us at all, but they may help over the winter.
 

Southside

Has No Timebombs, Lives on Life
The auquafir in the grain belt has been dropping 6 foot a year farmers are fighting for well drillers to dig deeper wells on a yearly basis. My father told me 30 years ago that the rest of the country will eventually look to the great lakes for pipelines to keep areas that have no water to continue to be profitable.
I stayed in a hotel east of Ogallala, NE. The water is exceptionally soft. Like the water was in Palm Coast FL. when my P's moved there 38 years ago. Now the hardness in Palm Coast is 100. Here in the Chicago area it is 130 to 150 or harder.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
If you refrigerate rice after cooking, it greatly reduces its carb bioavailability.
Pasta, too. Although it doesn't actually reduce carbs...just makes them absorbed much more slowly...
From Google AI:

Refrigerating cooked pasta does not reduce the total amount of carbohydrates. Instead, the chilling process changes the chemical structure of the starches, converting some of them into resistant starch. This acts like dietary fiber, slowing digestion and significantly blunting blood sugar spikes.

How it Works

The Chilling Process: When pasta is cooled in the fridge for 12 to 24 hours, the starches reorganize and harden into a crystalline structure.

The Result: Your digestive enzymes cannot easily break down this new "resistant" starch, meaning you absorb slightly fewer calories and the carbs hit your bloodstream much more slowly.

The Reheating Bonus: Interestingly, clinical studies show that if you reheat your chilled pasta, you retain these digestive benefits—and some studies suggest the glycemic impact can be reduced by up to 50%.

Summerthyme
 
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Southside

Has No Timebombs, Lives on Life
I stayed in a hotel east of Ogallala, NE. The water is exceptionally soft. Like the water was in Palm Coast FL. when my P's moved there 38 years ago. Now the hardness in Palm Coast is 100. Here in the Chicago area it is 130 to 150 or harder.
So, I looked it up. I was far east of Ogallala, like 2 hours, almost to Omaha. Stayed in Bellevue, NE. It has exceptionally soft water. the rest of the area is quite hard.
 

Just Plain Mom

Rockin' the Ozarks
If you refrigerate rice after cooking, it greatly reduces its carb bioavailability.
True, but only by about 50%. I've tried it, with several different types of rice and then tested. (Rice used to be my thing. :rolleyes:) It doesn't take me down enough to make it worth.

I mourned it for a second or two, then moved on. Turns out (potato) gnocchi and carbe diem pasta have a good effect. So I'm working on ways to fix them.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
As far as the OP, and "how close" we might be to actual famine...

Closer than any of us would like to think! Less than 2% of Americans are farmers, of any type. Personal observations tell me that the *vast majority* of active farmers don't raise ANY of their own food! 45 years ago, when we were starting out, almost every farm-big or small- had a vegetable garden near the house. Many had a chicken coop for eggs.

Those are all gone now. Most "farmers" know more about how to maintain machinery and how to use a computer program to figure out how much fertilizer, etc than they do about the "art" of growing food! I even saw that with hubby, especially in the first years of our marriage...ag classes do NOT start by teaching the basics that would allow soneone to start with fallow land and a supply of seeds...and actually have a chance of harvesting enough to justify the labor involved.

Hell, 25 years ago, I ran into a woman who was a small dairy farmer with her husband at Sam's Club. She was buying pre-made, frozen hamburger patties. She explained that "she's so busy, she doesn't have time to thaw their own bulk hamburger and make patties"...so she bought them! Pre-made patties at Sam's are the bottom of the barrel in terms of quality and flavor...

She also volunteered that she didn't keep a garden any longer..."too much work, and vegetables are so cheap in the store".

Interestingly, her main contribution to the farm income was from writing articles for farm publications... which all told about the joys of being "self sufficient"!!

But she wasn't an outlier...

If fuel, tractor parts, pesticides and fertilizers become too expensive to use... or simply unavailable... farmers will starve right alongside the cities...

Summerthyme
 

SouthernBreeze

TB Fanatic
As far as the OP, and "how close" we might be to actual famine...

Closer than any of us would like to think! Less than 2% of Americans are farmers, of any type. Personal observations tell me that the *vast majority* of active farmers don't raise ANY of their own food! 45 years ago, when we were starting out, almost every farm-big or small- had a vegetable garden near the house. Many had a chicken coop for eggs.

Those are all gone now. Most "farmers" know more about how to maintain machinery and how to use a computer program to figure out how much fertilizer, etc than they do about the "art" of growing food! I even saw that with hubby, especially in the first years of our marriage...ag classes do NOT start by teaching the basics that would allow soneone to start with fallow land and a supply of seeds...and actually have a chance of harvesting enough to justify the labor involved.

Hell, 25 years ago, I ran into a woman who was a small dairy farmer with her husband at Sam's Club. She was buying pre-made, frozen hamburger patties. She explained that "she's so busy, she doesn't have time to thaw their own bulk hamburger and make patties"...so she bought them! Pre-made patties at Sam's are the bottom of the barrel in terms of quality and flavor...

She also volunteered that she didn't keep a garden any longer..."too much work, and vegetables are so cheap in the store".

Interestingly, her main contribution to the farm income was from writing articles for farm publications... which all told about the joys of being "self sufficient"!!

But she wasn't an outlier...

If fuel, tractor parts, pesticides and fertilizers become too expensive to use... or simply unavailable... farmers will starve right alongside the cities...

Summerthyme

We live in a rural farming community with 1000's of acres of fields. Not a single one of these farmers grow their own gardens. Not one. They might be experts on growing their field crops, but I bet they know nothing, or very little, about growing their own food.
 

hd5574

Veteran Member
Summer
You are so correct..we went to town to pay the real estate taxes a couple of days ago..and stopped by the tractor dealership ..where DH used to work..
We went into parts..the back way and were standing behind the counter with parts manager..3 of them working the counter....no customers in the department..I have never been it there when there were no customers
On the way into town..we drove by fields normally planted with corn, soybeans, even hay....they were fallow...????? We usually see a number of gardens ...didn't see a single one..it was just crazy..never seen anything like it..

Talked last weekend to one of the people who sells micro greens at the corner's farmers market..asked him how his garden was doing...he said we didn't plant anything but peppers....tomatoes are too much trouble..shaking my head
Another person..new to me was there with garden plants in 3 and 5 gallon buckets..he had maters and cukes..one tomato plant was $30 or a bit larger one was even more....and one 8" cuke was $10..didn't even have the variety name..on the plants
Farmers" market...one with a few veggies....the crazy guy with buckets..one selling micro greens..one selling honey..one selling hot sauce...one selling home canned jam and pickles..one selling homemade wooden planters..another selling homemade cookies and cakes..
We live in a rural area..
It is crazy..don't see any gardens near us..
I'm thankful our garden can't be seen from the road..
 

bracketquant

Has No Life - Lives on TB
As far as the OP, and "how close" we might be to actual famine...

Closer than any of us would like to think! Less than 2% of Americans are farmers, of any type. Personal observations tell me that the *vast majority* of active farmers don't raise ANY of their own food! 45 years ago, when we were starting out, almost every farm-big or small- had a vegetable garden near the house. Many had a chicken coop for eggs.

Those are all gone now. Most "farmers" know more about how to maintain machinery and how to use a computer program to figure out how much fertilizer, etc than they do about the "art" of growing food! I even saw that with hubby, especially in the first years of our marriage...ag classes do NOT start by teaching the basics that would allow soneone to start with fallow land and a supply of seeds...and actually have a chance of harvesting enough to justify the labor involved.

Hell, 25 years ago, I ran into a woman who was a small dairy farmer with her husband at Sam's Club. She was buying pre-made, frozen hamburger patties. She explained that "she's so busy, she doesn't have time to thaw their own bulk hamburger and make patties"...so she bought them! Pre-made patties at Sam's are the bottom of the barrel in terms of quality and flavor...

She also volunteered that she didn't keep a garden any longer..."too much work, and vegetables are so cheap in the store".

Interestingly, her main contribution to the farm income was from writing articles for farm publications... which all told about the joys of being "self sufficient"!!

But she wasn't an outlier...

If fuel, tractor parts, pesticides and fertilizers become too expensive to use... or simply unavailable... farmers will starve right alongside the cities...

Summerthyme
Pre-made at Sam's are the bottom of the barrel?

It sounds like you've never had the delightful experience of Flanders beef patties. The first four ingredients...beef, water, beef hearts and textured soy flour, kind of says it all.

They start out round when frozen. When cooked they always turn into ovals. I never could figure that one out. The texture and flavor should never be mentioned in pleasant company.
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie
I've got CSAs in the area, so there's a fair amount of gardening going on. I don't know about other places, but most of the homestead farms I visit (as opposed to the larger commercial operations) have at least a few rows of something and summer chickens. They go to freezer camp in the fall.

Most of the homesteaders/hobby farmers have other jobs but they have the knowledge of how to grow food and raise animals, which is half of the battle, I think.
 

Big Kahuna

Contributing Member
Harnett county,NC here. Tobacco has ALWAYS been king crop. None planted. Everywhere I look I see corn. Everywhere. I reckon it's because E 15 is coming. Which brings more problems for small engines. But the farmers know something.
 

CaryC

TB Fanatic
We live in a rural farming community with 1000's of acres of fields. Not a single one of these farmers grow their own gardens. Not one. They might be experts on growing their field crops, but I bet they know nothing, or very little, about growing their own food.
And I would add to that: That all the fields that were farmed back in the 60's are the same fields that are farmed today.

The only difference is (meaning same owner, just much older) they rent their fields out to, not what I would call corporations like Monsanto, but to other farmers. Because of the cost of machinery, they have to rent fields to make the money to live and pay bills on.

And right where we live there are 3 such farmers. This land over here is owned by so and so, and he rents out to this guy. The next field is owned by a different guy and he rents to another guy. And the 3rd guy rents his fields out to yet a 3rd guy. And then which ever direction/town you head out to, from here are all rented/farmed by the same guy.

Same fields that were farmed in the 60's.
 

King Samson

I'm Here
…plenty of food? At what price?
Yep... seems to be plenty of corn, wheat and soy beans...

False alarm, everyone can come out of their bunkers!!

Corn Falls on Bearish Report, Is $4 in the Cards? Soybeans Make Fresh Lows​

Corn was down $.06 on the close as USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report showed stocks in all positions at 1.532 billion bu.

Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company says that was 195 million bu. above trade guesses and up 207 million from USDA’s projected ending stocks.

“Cash markets were telling us we wouldn’t have any shortages mind you, but I didn’t think that we find this much supply. This is the third largest miss on a stocks report on a bear side that we can find in history,” he explains.

Where Did the Extra Corn Come From?

However, going into the report the market saw spreads weaken and corn basis widened which would have indicated the extra bushels.

Soybeans Make Fresh Lows

Quarterly stocks for soybeans were slightly friendly at 317 million bu. which was down nearly 14 million bu. from USDA’s estimated ending stocks.

However, Basse says soybeans made new lows for the move as the market has realized it doesn’t matter because demand projections are too high if the U.S. does not get China back in the export market.

“We found our stocks down about 13 or 14 million bu. relative to what the USDA indicated back in September. It’s a nice modest amount but China as we get into the month of October seasonally was importing somewhere between let’s talk about 40 to 70 million bu.

Wheat Hit By Double Whammy

Wheat futures saw new contract lows, at least in the Soft red winter wheat class, as USDA raised production by 58 million bu. in the Small Grains Summary to 2.12 billion bu.

Stocks in all positions were also increased more than expected to 2.054 billion bu. which is 128 million bu. from last year.

 

King Samson

I'm Here

Corn Prices Hit 4-Month Low​


Corn futures dropped to around $4.2 per bushel, hitting a four-month low as nearly complete US planting and improving weather conditions boosted crop development.

Planting reached about 93% complete as of late May, ahead of the five-year average, with emergence also running above normal at 76%, signaling a crop that is both early and largely established.

Warm early-June temperatures are expected to accelerate growth, while forecasts for additional rainfall in the drier western Corn Belt improved soil moisture and reinforced expectations for strong yield potential.

USDA reported 67% of corn rated good-to-excellent in top producing states, slightly below expectations but still consistent with a broadly favorable supply outlook.

 
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