WHO: H5N1 Pandemic Threat growing

Reborn

Seeking Aslan's Country
Kimber said:
Reborn,

I don't know if you've seen this page, or if not, if you're interested :

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/vaccine.htm

David

Thanks for this link. Because I'm on the Specific Carbohydrate Diet (health reasons) I have been made aware of the crap that occurs from these vaccines. Autistic folks have done well with the diet above, and many of them tell personal stories about vaccines, but I hadn't seen the website that you posted here before. We're screwed either way. If the vaccine doesn't kill you the disease will. I read these posts above, and then read the threads (main) about how illegals are bringing in diseases like TB, LEPROSY, Polio, etc, and it makes my head spin. When I first started prepping I was concerned about things like, "no electricity, food spoilage, ammo supply, etc", but I'm gonna have to start putting more attention into the "health-medicine chest" needs that we could face. What a total mess...
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Lack of bird flu action a national scandal </font>
Effect Measure
May 23 2005
China is taking vigorous measures to contain H5N1 infection allegedly brought to the country via migrating wildfowl, apparently bar-headed (or spot-headed) geese, possibly from India (see coverage by Recombinomics)</B></center>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...hina_India.html">http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...hina_India.html</A>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...ndia_Geese.html
">http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...aded_Geese.html</A>

178 dead geese were found on bird island in Qinghai Lake in remote Western China. The lake is China's largest saltwater lake and the quarter-square kilometer island, said to be home to more than 100,000 birds, is a tourist attraction, especially for birders.

It has now been closed cf: <A href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/22/news/virus.php">http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/22/news/virus.php</A>
and farms near migration routes have been ordered to vaccinate their birds.

From <A href="http://www.thedailystar.net/2005/05/23/d5052301129.htm">http://www.thedailystar.net/2005/05/23/d5052301129.htm</A>
Agence France Presse (AFP) also reports a much wider provincial vaccination campaign underway:

China has ordered the immediate vaccination of three million birds among other emergency measures to stop the spread of bird flu after discovering the H5N1 virus had killed some migratory birds, state media said yesterday.

[snip]

Poultry in farms around the affected area had been mostly vaccinated by Saturday, Xinhua said.

The dead birds were found on the edges of Lake Qinghai, where the presence of migratory birds is a tourist attraction.

The area has been sealed off for more than 10 days, with police stationed there around the clock to prevent tourists from entering, the Beijing News said.

[snip]

Veterinary institutions across China were also asked to determine the species and territory of migratory birds in their regions and to take precautionary measures.

The agriculture ministry has asked local governments to prohibit people from entering the habitats of migratory birds and to prevent contact between migratory birds and poultry, Xinhua said.

Confusion remains about the source of the migrating birds, with news report
cf: <A href="http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_...ontent_id=91632">http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_...ontent_id=91632</A>
with news reports quoting Chinese authorities as suspecting southeast asia but adding that the virus is not the same as the one currently circulating there. China last reported H5N1 infection in birds last July. The H5N1 virus is not always highly pathogenic for geese, although it apparently is in this case. A previous outbreak in China in 1996 also was deadly for geese.

The Chinese authorities are clearly taking this outbreak seriously, but it is hard to see how they will be able to prevent the spread if migrating birds are indeed the source, as there are major migratory flyways across this vast country. Once H5N1 infection in birds becomes an Asian panzootic we will be in yet another segment of an extremely worrisome trajectory for global public health.

Meanwhile, deaths from bird flu continue to be reported from Vietnam, the latest a 46 year old man from an area 40 km west of Hanoi. Two other cases are hospitalized.
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...rn_Vietnam.html
">http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...rn_Vietnam.html</A>

All national health authorities are now on notice that pandemic planning should be highest priority. If this were intelligence regarding a possible terrorist action we would be on Red Alert. Yet there is still no visible action from the US CDC or most state health authorities. This must now be counted a national scandal.

posted by Revere

<A href="http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/">FWIW: I reccommend that this site be book marked</A>
 
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<B><center>Bird Flu Picks a Genetic Lock
Asia's H5N1 virus may be getting less virulent—but more dangerous
<font size=+1 color=red>Avian flu may be adapting better to humans</font>
Monday, May. 23, 2005</B></center>
The most frightening aspect of avian flu has always been its astonishing virulence, but the human death rate in hard-hit northern Vietnam has fallen to 34% this year, down from almost 80% for the entire country in 2004. Good news? Not if you're an epidemiologist. Investigators for the World Health Organization (WHO) have raised concerns that even though the H5N1 bird-flu virus appears to be weakening, it may be adapting better to human beings—potentially opening the door to a flu pandemic.

LATEST COVER STORY
May 30, 2005 Issue
The Class of 9/11

CNN.com: Top Headlines

Researchers have found that as the fatality rate dropped in northern Vietnam, there has been an increase in the number of cases clustered close together and in the age of those infected—signs that the virus may be finding more efficient ways to infect people, including human-to-human transmission, the principal barrier to a pandemic. The falling death rate could mean that this process of adaptation is accelerating. "In gaining the ability to go from one person to another, a virus may well lose its virulence," says Dr. Jeremy Farrar, director of the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City. The 1918 Spanish flu, for example, the worst pandemic in history, had a fatality rate of 2.5%. But it was extremely contagious, infecting hundreds of millions.

The data from Vietnam is still far from conclusive, and the reduced fatality rate may be due to more experienced investigators detecting the sort of mild cases they might have missed last year. But that wouldn't explain the difference between situations in Vietnam's north and in the south, where the death rate has remained high and infections have remained comparatively low. Either way, public-health experts are preparing for the worst. Says Dr. Peter Brown, a WHO epidemiologist: "If we wait until we definitely know there is a problem, it may be too late."

From the May. 30, 2005 issue of TIME Asia Magazine

<A href="http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501050530-1064512,00.html">(LINK)</A>
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>WHO warns of bird flu mutation</font>
May 23 2005
The World Health Organisation has been warning for several months now that the avian influenza virus could combine with a human flu strain – making it resistant to any existing human flu vaccine and creating a worldwide human flu pandemic. </B></center>
Now, clusters of human bird flu cases indicate the deadly virus may have mutated into a germ more easily passed between people.

Last week, a Vietnamese female nurse who cared for her bird flu patients was hospitalised with bird flu symptoms despite having no known contact with fowl and other birds, according to wire service reports. Although tests haven't confirmed this diagnosis yet, a 26-year-old nurse, who cared for the same patients, has already tested positive for bird flu.

<B><center>Red alert</B></center>

No one can say with certainty that an H5N1 flu pandemic is on the cards. But there are several warning lights flickering: the virus keeps popping up in different areas despite vigorous efforts to contain it; certain animals with which humans have frequent contact have become hosts; and it looks like H5N1 is becoming more aggressive.

Experts reckon that, with global travelling being what it is, an outbreak could spread around the world within a month. And, as the avian H5N1 strain seems to be extremely infective, a large-scale outbreak of the virus could be a lot more serious than the Sars pandemic of 2003.

Situation carefully monitored
Despite these reports, "South Africans have no need to panic at the moment," says virologist Dr Gert van Zyl from the Department of Medical Virology, University of Stellenbosch.

To date, no cases of human-to-human transmission of bird flu have occurred in Africa.

And "The World Health Organisation is monitoring the situation in the East carefully," Van Zyl says. If the H5N1 virus should ever spread to South Africa, our government would work closely with the WHO to contain the virus.

In the past, flu pandemics have hit so fast, that scientists didn't have a chance to keep up with them. But surveillance of the virus has become good enough to enable health officials to come up with a vaccine fast enough to limit a pandemic's path of destruction.

Get your flu shot
At this stage, South Africans should make it a priority to get their annual flu shots. Note, however, that these injections protect only against the influenza viruses A and B. Vaccines that protect against H5N1 are only in the early stages of development.

The WHO and the National Health Authority this winter recommend vaccination against the A/Wellington (H3N2)-, A/New Caledonia (H1N1)- and B/Shanghai-like strains for South Africa.

Although "there is no indication that this year's strains are more aggressive than previous ones," Van Zyl still recommends that people should go for a shot at the end of March or early April – especially if you fall into a risk group:

Risk groups include:

People of all ages with chronic debilitating disease, especially those with chronic cardiac, pulmonary, renal and metabolic disorders.

People over 65 years of age. People receiving immunosuppressive therapy. Women who would be in the second or third trimester of pregnancy during the flu season. Pregnant women with medical conditions which place them at risk for flu complications should be immunised at any stage of pregnancy.

Medical and nursing staff responsible for the care of high-risk cases. Children on long-term aspirin therapy.
The first flu outbreaks usually start occurring late in April. – (Health24)
<A href="http://www.health24.com/medical/Condition_centres/777-792-811-1700,31197.asp">(LINK)</A>
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>U.N. agrees new rules to prevent diseases spreading</font>
In a further concession from member states normally jealous of their sovereignty...
May 23 2005
GENEVA (Reuters) - Member states of the World Health Organization Monday agreed new rules, including possible travel and trade restrictions, to help prevent deadly diseases such as bird flu or SARS crossing borders.</B></center>
The regulations, adopted by the U.N. agency's 192 member states after two years of negotiations, oblige countries to tighten up disease detection, and lay down guidelines for international measures to be taken.

In future, the WHO must be quickly informed of any outbreak of four diseases -- two new threats identified in Asia, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and bird flu, and two traditional virulent viruses, smallpox and polio.

But any "potential international public health concern," including outbreaks from unknown causes or sources, and potentially deadly sicknesses such as cholera and yellow fever, must also be reported when they are sufficiently serious.

China, which was the source of the 2003 SARS outbreak which spread to 30 countries and killed 800 people, was accused of being slow to inform the WHO and neighboring countries of what was at the time a new disease.

"This is a major step forward for international health," said Dr. Lee Jong-wook, WHO director-general. "These new regulations recognize that diseases do not respect national boundaries. They are urgently needed to help limit the threats to public health," he added.

The regulations greatly extend the scope of the previous guidelines, drawn up in 1969, which required countries to report three diseases -- cholera, plague and yellow fever -- to the U.N. agency, but demanded little else.

HELP PREPARE

In any disagreement between the WHO and a member state on the seriousness of an outbreak, the rules allow the head of the U.N. body to summon a committee of experts to make recommendations on tackling the health threat.

Such recommendations could range from continued vigilance to the requesting of proof of vaccination and to travel bans for people or goods.

In a further concession from member states normally jealous of their sovereignty, the WHO can also take account of disease reports from sources other than the government concerned when making its assessments.

Officials said that the rules, which it is hoped will help the world prepare for a long-predicted influenza pandemic, did not so much break new ground as put what had been established practice on a formal footing.

"What went before was ad hoc, nobody could be held responsible," said Irish diplomat Mary Whelan, who chaired the negotiations on the new regulations.

The rules are also about what countries cannot do. Any state imposing what others consider "inappropriate restrictions," such as holding up cargo or passengers, must justify their actions.

"You can be asked to justify on a scientific basis the reason for having applied those restrictive measures," said Max Hardiman, WHO's coordinator for the new health regulations.

Although the regulations do not mention specifically biological or chemical agents, as the United States had wanted, health officials said these were covered by the requirement to report any serious threat to international health.

<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2005-05-23T141020Z_01_L23348045_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-HEALTH-RULES-DC.XML">(LINK)</A>
 

outnumbered10

Sleep? What is that?
Dear Shakey,
The more I read here and the less I hear in the mainstream news, the more I believe we are in big trouble. I just returned from an overseas pilgrimage and I encountered pilgrims from all over the world, including Asians, and I must say, it is a little disconcerting to think of how everyone was touching and grabbing at my babies...may God protect us all! It most certainly could travel back to the US very quickly, as with international flights we met folks making connections from everywhere...and i mean everywhere!

Thanks again and keep posting this info - it is VERY important.
I have been pretty sick since the trip and so is DH, so this is making me think!

ON10
 
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<B><center>AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - EAST ASIA (81)
*************************************</center>
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Sun 22 May 2005
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Canadian Press, Canada.com, Sun 22 May 2005 [edited]
<http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=b0648128-36ff-474a-bbcc-f0f8444b56ca>


WHO report charts disturbing changes in avian influenza virus
-----------------------------------------------</B>
The World Health Organization urged countries to make full haste with
pandemic influenza preparations on Wed 18 May 2005, as it released a report
outlining disturbing changes to the H5N1 virus circulating in Asia. The
report raises concerns that molecular and disease pattern evidence may
indicate the virus is becoming more adept at infecting people. It also
reveals some strains of the H5N1 virus may be developing resistance to
oseltamivir, the drug wealthy nations are flocking to stockpile as fears of
a pandemic mount.

An influenza expert who helped draft the report said it's meant to convey
the message that the level of anxiety regarding the virus has risen. I
think it's fair to say that the report signifies a definite step up in
concern," said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, a flu specialist from the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control who is being seconded to WHO's global influenza program.

The report concedes the authors had limited scientific evidence on which to
determine whether H5N1 is becoming an even graver risk to mankind. "We're
basically worried that that's what is happening, but we're also saying that
there's not quite enough information available, not quite enough data and
cases and patterns to really solidly say that is the case," Fukuda said
from Atlanta. Fukuda was part of a recent 3-person WHO mission to Viet Nam,
where the alarming changes are being observed in the northern part of the
country. His team reported last week to a meeting of international experts
in Manila; the report was drawn up from their deliberations.

A leading U.S. epidemiologist said the report contains no single smoking
gun to suggest H5N1 is becoming a pandemic strain, but the combined
evidence paints a compelling picture that cannot be ignored. "I think it
tells us that everything about H5N1 is headed in the direction that none of
us would like to see it go," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy [CIDRAP] at the
University of Minnesota. "Do I say that that's going to mean there's an
impending pandemic? I don't know that. Does it tell me that ... there's a
growing concern about it? Absolutely."

The report of a case in which the virus was partially resistant to
oseltamivir will give public health officials around the world pause.
Oseltamivir (sold as Tamiflu) is one of only 2 antiviral drugs known to
work against H5N1 and is the 1st choice for pandemic planners, because it
is easier to use [can be taken by mouth] than the alternative, zanamivir,
which is not licensed in Canada. Dr. Frederick Hayden, an antiviral expert
at the University of Virginia, insisted it wasn't necessarily disturbing to
find limited resistance to the drug, because it has also been documented in
a small percentage of infections with human flu strains. Still, the finding
raises the specter of a resistant strain of the virus becoming dominant and
spreading among people, creating a situation in which the world has
virtually no therapeutic weapons to combat pandemic flu in the months
before a vaccine could be produced. Hayden noted that human flu strains
resistant to oseltamivir are generally less fit and don't transmit as well.
But Dr. Earl Brown, an influenza virologist at the University of Ottawa,
said oseltamivir is too new a drug for anyone to assume that pattern will
persist across all subtypes of influenza. "The indications from the lab
data are that the virus is sort of a wimpier virus when it's resistant to
the drug," he said. "So if that's always the case, that's good. But I
think, given limited experience with the drug, you can't be too categorical
at this point."

Fukuda said the authors of the report felt the situation demands close
observation. "It's definitely a warning sign that we need to monitor
resistance to oseltamivir," he said. "Clearly, that's what we have to do."
The report also outlined the disturbing changes in infection patterns in
northern Viet Nam, where this spring, there have been more clusters of
cases, clusters that lasted for longer periods of time, and a greater age
range among human cases. The changing patterns suggest the virus has
altered. Among the possibilities is that the genetic mutations have allowed
the virus to be transmitted more easily to people in the 1st place, or
among them after a 1st case occurs. At the same time, molecular analysis of
the virus shows genetic changes near what's known as the "receptor binding
site," the point where the invading virus attaches to the cell walls of a host.

Influenza viruses comprised entirely of avian influenza genes don't tend to
bind well to human receptor binding sites. But these changes may indicate
the virus is evolving to be a better fit. Still, given how little is known
about influenza, no one can predict with certainty the implications of
these changes.

"The information is pretty sketchy," said Dr. Frank Plummer, scientific
director of Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, which
sent a team of 3 scientists to Hanoi on Wednesday [18 May 2005]. "And till
we know quite a bit more, it's hard to know whether these things are real
or not." The team, led by Dr. Yan Li, chief of the influenza laboratory,
will help scientists at Viet Nam's National Institute of Hygiene and
Epidemiology analyze blood samples from contacts of H5N1 cases to determine
whether additional undetected infections have occurred. "It will help a lot
in, I think, clarifying the extent of infection," Plummer said.

[Byline: Helen Branswell]

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[Apart from information on the appearance of resistance to the
anti-neuraminidase drug -- oseltamivir --, this report adds little to
previous comments on the WHO Consultation Document
<A href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/H5N1%20Intercountry%20Assess
ment%20final.pdf">(LINK)</A>
which summarized the outcome of the WHO Meeting in Manila in early May
2005. The risk of a major pandemic of influenza remains unquantifiable.
There have been more apparent clusters of human avian influenza virus
infection in the north of Viet Nam than in the south of Vet Nam or
elsewhere, but in virtually all situations, there has been exposure to or
consumption of diseased chickens. There is still no firm evidence that the
H5N1 virus transmits directly from human-to-human, although this
possibility cannot be excluded. Although the avian influenza viruses
isolated from humans appear to be more heterogenous in terms of the
nucleotide sequence of the hemagglutinin gene (which encodes the virus
protein that binds to the virus receptor on the surface of host cells), it
should not be concluded that the virus may be changing to a form capable of
human-to-human transmission. There is no directionality in virus variation
unless there is an external selective force favoring a particular change.
It is possible that a virus capable of transmission between humans may
evolve by chance, but there is no reason to suppose that such a virus
evolving by mutation alone would be exceptionally virulent, rather the
reverse. In the H7N7 avian influenza outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003,
many poultry workers developed mild infections (conjunctivitis) with very
limited spread to household contacts, but no pandemic ensued. The greatest
risk remains the generation of a novel human pathogen by reassortment of
genes between the H5N1 avian virus and human influenza viruses. - Mod.CP]

<A href="http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=b0648128-36ff-474a-bbcc-f0f8444b56ca">(LINK)</A>
 
-FWIW: <i>There are several bug hunters who believe that the Indian Govt. is in error reporting these illnesses and deaths as meningococcemia; becuase H5N1 exhibits the same symptoms as meningococcemia.

And the barred Geese are flying into China (and they are known to have H5N1) from India........</i>



<B><center>DISEASE
<font size=+1 color=red>Three more deaths, meningococcemia afflicts 357 </font>
NEW DELHI, MAY 23 (PTI)
Three more deaths reported due to suspected meningococcaemia since the last 24 hours taking the toll to 36 even as three new probable cases were admitted in various hospitals here. </B><center>
Two of the three deaths occurred at Safdarjung Hospital while one patient died at Deen Dayal Upadhayay hospital in the capital since yesterday, a MCD release said here today.
With these, the death toll has risen to 36 and the total number of people suspected to be infected by the bacteria causing Meningococcemia has risen to 357, it said.

The disease is showing no sign of abating even as the health officials had said that it would die down with rise in temperature.

Seventy-three people are still undergoing treatment for the disease in various hospitals in the capital whereas 248 people have been discharged, the release added.

<A href="http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=299982">(LINK)</A>
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Migratory Birds As Terrorist Bioweapons</font>
By: Brad Arnold
Tuesday, May 24, 2005

The Asia H5N1 avian flu reservior appears to be in migratory birds. These hardy fowl withstand infection and shed virus across state and country borders. Their feces hits the barnyard, drys, and then blows in the wind. The RNA strand of influenza is actually composed of eight segments that are adapt at reassortment. The more strands in circulation, the more of a chance that the H5N1 avian flu will change into a supervirus that would infect people. Since animal pathogens are less controlled, and RNA is so adaptable, the bioterrorism strategy of sowing an animal pathogen would not only be agriculture bioterrorism, but would be an effective strategy to create a human pandemic. </B></center>
WHO is not recommended culling migratory birds, which are the obvious reservior of the H5N1 avian flu. This is equivalent to our not seeking to exterminate mosquitos that carry the West Nile virus, and are a presumed reservior of the disease. Basically, there are potential animal/virus reserviors that can't be eliminated, and that would make any bioweapon that used such a niche unextinguishable. The viral smoldering could last for years, or even decades, before a supervirus flared. One person could be infected with a highly contagious bioweapon, and they could fly airplanes and walk through crowds while sheding the virus, causing a epidemic, then a pandemic. You could infect one migratory bird, and cause an avian pandemic, which could turn quickly into a human pandemic. North American birds will be returning from the South this Spring. Will a deadly, highly contagious pathogen be delivered with them? How easy would it be to smuggle a sample of H5N1 avian flu from Asia, where it is a pandemic, to America, to be introduced to our migratory bird population? Such a sly attack probably wouldn't even be labeled a bioterrorism attack, but just a natural occurrence. Who needs airplanes filled with gasoline to use as a missiles? All you need is one migratory bird shedding the H5N1 avian virus.
<A href="http://maconareaonline.com/letters/letter.asp?id=36">(LINK)</A>
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>China bird flu could 'cause mayhem'</font>
Monday, 23 May, 2005, 20:24 GMT 21:24 UK

By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
BBC News, Beijing

The Chinese government says there is no need to be alarmed. So far, the only deaths reported from the latest bird flu outbreak are 178 wild geese found on the shores of Lake Qinghai earlier this month.</B></center>
There are no reported cases of the disease among China's domestic poultry, let alone any cases of human infection.

But if there is no reason to be alarmed, why has China rushed to shut down all its national parks, sealed off Lake Qinghai, and ordered the vaccination of millions of poultry across vast areas of western China?

The reason is the potential this virus has to cause mayhem. The virus in question is known by the code name H5N1, and it is extremely deadly, not just to birds, but to humans.

On Monday, Vietnam confirmed a further death from the virus, bringing the total in South-East Asia to 54. Up to now outbreaks of the virus have been largely confined to southern China and South-East Asia.

Slaughter

The first outbreak was in Hong Kong in 1996. Every single chicken in the territory was slaughtered to bring the outbreak under control.

Tens of millions more have been slaughtered in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. But H5N1 has not been contained.

It continues to pop up all over South-East Asia, and has now been discovered among migratory birds 2,000 kilometres away on the edge of the Tibetan plateau.


H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS
Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997
Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds
Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed

Every spring, millions of migratory birds leave South-East Asia and head north across China to their summer nesting grounds. The fear now is that many more than the 178 geese which died may be carrying H5N1.

Fifty-four human deaths don't sound many. In fact, bird flu has so far proved very poor at spreading to humans. Almost all of those who died had been in close daily contact with infected chickens and ducks.

But that may change. Viruses constantly mutate. Already H5N1 has mutated into a form that can pass from bird to human. Next it may mutate again into a form that can pass from human to human.

If it does, the scenario is terrifying. A new and deadly flu epidemic would break out. It would spread around the world in a matter of weeks. No-one would have any natural resistance to the virus.

Tens, perhaps hundreds of millions would be hospitalised. Anywhere between two and fifty million people could die.

The world is overdue for a new "flu pandemic". Many scientists now say it is not a matter of if, but when. No one has died in China from this latest outbreak. But that is no reason to feel reassured.

<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4573393.stm">Story from BBC NEWS:</A>
 

phoenix7of7

Deceased
Thanks for all the info Shakey.

I'm beginning to think that we don't need to worry about hordes of mexicans/illegals; or chinese; or anybody else. IF this thing starts - it will wreck such havoc as to keep everbody concerned with their own home front rather then anything international.
 

suzy

Membership Revoked
Lets hope this one receives the international attention it should, BEFORE, it hits us all in the face. Since it probably won't, its time to check the flu preps.

Shakey, thank you for taking the time to post.

suzy
 

closet squirrel

Veteran Member
Why isnt something like this heard all over the news? God forbid that you give the people a bit of heads up, they might Panic!! I think that most people wouldnt panic at all, they would ignore it until it is right on their doorstep.

It just seems like this is pretty important.
 
*Bump to the Top*

[edited to add]:

Ladies and gentlemen;

This Thread is an example (a poor one - I must admit) of news, event defining news, being linked.

This is the first time I have been able to post a series of days' of a developing situation.

And then Post them as a combined unit - so that one can see a steady progression of what I can only describe as the Virus from Hail!

This complied thread came at a cost to me. And I won't do it again; quite simply because the thread will disappear into the archive limbo with- in a short time (and it took me days to compile it). But maby it will have alerted some few that things are not as they seem in the world.....

I *know* you can see the static which while occured compiling the threads- I left the accompaning posts on the thread. LOL ...Quite simply because I could not discern on how to remove them (those posts) - however, they do have their deserved position on this thread, I sure got a lot of flack trying to compile the darn thing

ROTFLMAO - But I did get it done! For once I got A linking thread I wanted for years; and I did it right...

Now, if only one of you, after you read through it, will be so kind as to bump the thread occasionally; and not let it go quietly into the dark......

Shakey
 

old bear

Deceased
Thanks for putting this on the main page Shakey.

IMHO this is too important to take a chance that some people not see it.
I am kind of busy right now, moving back to Arkansas after the Minuteman project and all, but I and others can start doing some digging for possible things that just plain people could be doing to get ready for the flu if/when it hits here.
Maybe a separate thread for that stuff ?

Thanks again for all the hard work tracking all of this down. old bear.
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
old bear said:
Thanks for putting this on the main page Shakey.

IMHO this is too important to take a chance that some people not see it.
I am kind of busy right now, moving back to Arkansas after the Minuteman project and all, but I and others can start doing some digging for possible things that just plain people could be doing to get ready for the flu if/when it hits here.
Maybe a separate thread for that stuff ?

Thanks again for all the hard work tracking all of this down. old bear.


Ask and ye shall receive. Here is a very extensive thread on Bird Flu preps.


http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=141047


Maybe should just put it back up on main page.
 

Christian for Israel

Knight of Jerusalem
shakey, your efforts are appreciated by many here. i usually don't reply simply because i don't wish to distract from the thread, but i will definately bump this from time to time, because of your effort as well as the grave importance of the material compiled here.
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
My turn to bump for the evening crowd. This is a vitally important thread.

A matter of life and death is not too dramatic a term. :siren:
 

whitebird

Inactive
And another bump from Australia - thanks Shakey.

This developing situation gets quite a lot of mention on the A.B.C. television news here, and last Sunday I think in was on S.B.S. Television (many people's and my favourite news broadcast) there was this Chinese doctor being interviewed. When asked "if this thing becomes a pandemic (or words to that effect) - he replied "it is not a case of if - but when"! Anyone watching would have sat up and taken notice - we certainly did. Sorry I just don't remember his name

Just as a matter of observation - it's is very quiet in Sydney town these days - especially retail, and also business/financial in general, and it's particularly noticeable by many on this May day 25.05.2005. Perhaps everyone is hibernating - but it's not cold enough for that yet?

Will bump again later.
Whitebird.
 
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<i>This is where it gets dangerous - the pigs can carry human flu viruses to.....

Shakey</i>



<B><center>26 May 2005

David Cyranoski, Tokyo

<font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird flu spreads among Java's pigs</font>
Concerns over the presence of a dangerous strain of avian flu virus in Indonesia's pigs are growing, as government tests confirm the existence of infection. In some areas, the H5N1 virus could be infecting up to half of the pig population, without causing any signs of disease.</B></center>
The initial discovery was made earlier this year by an independent researcher working outside national and international surveillance systems. Chairul Nidom, a virologist at Airlangga University's tropical-disease centre in Surabaya, Java, found the H5N1 virus in five of ten pigs tested from Banten in western Java.

The presence of the virus in pigs is a particular worry because the animals can harbour both bird and human flu viruses, and act as a 'mixing vessel' for the emergence of a strain of avian flu that can easily infect humans. There are now signs that the virus could be spreading unchecked through the pig population.

Nidom says that the pigs he tested showed no signs of illness, and the only reason he tested them was that they were kept near a chicken farm that was struck by avian flu last year. Nature has discovered that a government survey has since found similar results in the same region.

The virus was not found in 150 pigs tested from outside the area. Although the government says it has stepped up the surveillance of pigs in its seven satellite laboratories, it may fail to spot any spread of the virus because resources are short. "It's a big country," says Tri Satya Putri Naipospos, director of animal health at Indonesia's agriculture ministry. "If you want to commit to eradicating a disease, you need more money."

Nidom is also frustrated by a lack of resources. He says he has samples from another 90 pigs in Banten, but cannot afford to test them or to expand his survey to other areas.

Some health officials in Asia fear the presence of avian flu in pigs even more than in chickens or ducks. "I think pigs pose a much greater threat of spreading the disease to humans than poultry," says Nidom.

The virus was found in pigs in China in 2001 and in 2003 (see Nature 430, 955; 2004). The country stepped up its surveillance, and two surveys in 2004 found that all 8,457 samples tested were free of H5N1.

Nidom's discovery of H5N1 in pigs is a wake-up call for the Indonesian government. He says that when he first alerted the government to his findings in February, there was no reaction. "I don't know why they are so passive," he says. Nidom took his findings to a local newspaper, the Jakarta-based Kompas, which ran the story on 9 April. The news spread to international media earlier this month.

The government responded to the media attention by carrying out its own survey, and found H5N1 in three out of eight pigs it tested in Banten, Naipospos told Nature. Like those tested by Nidom, the pigs showed no outward signs of disease.

Despite this worrying result, communication has faltered between Indonesia and the international organizations charged with monitoring animal health, such as the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). When interviewed by Nature last week, the OIE's regional representative for the Asia-Pacific region still referred to the presence of H5N1 in pigs as "a rumour".

The FAO and OIE cannot act until they have received official government reports, says Carolyn Benigno, animal-health officer at the FAO's regional headquarters in Bangkok. She hadn't heard of Nidom's work until Nature contacted her last week. However, Naipospos complains that although she is preparing an official report for the FAO, she cannot fast-track it because the FAO and the OIE do not classify the case as an emergency. "This is not an outbreak, it's a finding," she says, because the pigs are not ill or dying. As Nature went to press, the Indonesian government was preparing to send a report on the matter to the OIE. (See Box).

Nidom says he would like to expand his project, and to sample pigs from eastern Java. But he is not counting on being given the resources to do so. This is his second run-in with the government — in 2003 he caused a stir by releasing data showing that mass deaths of chickens at the time were caused by H5N1.
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05250506/H5N1_Indonesia_Swine_Confirmed.html">(LINK)</A>
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
whitebird said:
And another bump from Australia - thanks Shakey.

This developing situation gets quite a lot of mention on the A.B.C. television news here, and last Sunday I think in was on S.B.S. Television (many people's and my favourite news broadcast) there was this Chinese doctor being interviewed. When asked "if this thing becomes a pandemic (or words to that effect) - he replied "it is not a case of if - but when"! Anyone watching would have sat up and taken notice - we certainly did. Sorry I just don't remember his name

Just as a matter of observation - it's is very quiet in Sydney town these days - especially retail, and also business/financial in general, and it's particularly noticeable by many on this May day 25.05.2005. Perhaps everyone is hibernating - but it's not cold enough for that yet?

Will bump again later.
Whitebird.
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
whitebird said:
And another bump from Australia - thanks Shakey.

This developing situation gets quite a lot of mention on the A.B.C. television news here, and last Sunday I think in was on S.B.S. Television (many people's and my favourite news broadcast) there was this Chinese doctor being interviewed. When asked "if this thing becomes a pandemic (or words to that effect) - he replied "it is not a case of if - but when"! Anyone watching would have sat up and taken notice - we certainly did. Sorry I just don't remember his name

Just as a matter of observation - it's is very quiet in Sydney town these days - especially retail, and also business/financial in general, and it's particularly noticeable by many on this May day 25.05.2005. Perhaps everyone is hibernating - but it's not cold enough for that yet?

Will bump again later.
Whitebird.


Good Grief!!! We don't get anything like that around here!!!!
:sht:
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Bird flu: 20% of globe may be hit</font>
Thursday, 26th May 2005
A FIFTH of the world's population could be struck down with a new influenza pandemic, triggering global economic meltdown and a complete freeze on international travel, experts have warned. </B></center>
Scientists say world leaders should start planning now for an outbreak that could lead to several million deaths, widespread panic and the collapse of international trade.

Only a global response, rather than countries focusing wholly on their own protection, would stand any chance of averting the catastrophe, it is claimed.

Fears of a pandemic have arisen after outbreaks of the H5N1 bird-flu strain in south-east Asia, which has caused a total of more than 50 confirmed human deaths. The fatality rate of humans infected by the virus is as high as 60 per cent.

At present, there is no evidence that the strain can be transmitted from one person to another, but it may only be a matter of time before the virus mutates into a form that can easily pass between people. Should that happen, it would spread rapidly around the world, with devastating consequences.

Scientists writing in the journal Nature said the world today was far more vulnerable to the effects of a pandemic than it was in 1918, when a deadly strain of influenza killed between 20 million and 40 million people.

An optimistic estimate suggests that the next flu pandemic could cause 20 per cent of the world's population to become ill. Within a few months, almost 30 million people would need to be hospitalised, and a quarter of them would die.

But the effects on today's highly interconnected world economy would be just as serious, it is claimed.

Professor Michael Osterholm, of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, said: "The arrival of pandemic flu will trigger a reaction that will change the world overnight.

"There will be an immediate response from leaders to stop the virus entering their countries by greatly reducing and even ending foreign travel and trade - as was seen in parts of Asia in response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] epidemic.

"These efforts are doomed to fail given the infectiousness of the virus and the volume of illegal crossings that occur at most borders. Global, national and regional economies will come to an abrupt halt."

International co-operation was vital to minimise the impact of a pandemic, Prof Osterholm said. In particular, a global effort was needed to develop a new type of vaccine that could be manufactured quickly and that targeted multiple strains. But he added: "Unfortunately, most industrial countries are looking at the vaccine issue through myopic lenses."

He warned that time was running out to prepare for the next flu pandemic and said there was a "critical need" for medical and non-medical planning, involving both the public and private sectors, at a level beyond anything considered so far.

Meanwhile, four Dutch experts, led by Dr Albert Osterhaus, from the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, made an urgent call for a global taskforce to control a future pandemic.

It would consist of leading specialists in the fields of human and animal medicine, virology, epidemiology, pathology, ecology and agriculture. It would also include experts in translating science into policy. Management teams would be available to target specific flu outbreaks occurring anywhere in the world.

"Given the large geographical area in which the H5N1 virus has become endemic, and the greater potential for rapid virus spread, an efficient, effective, outbreak management team strategy, with centralised guidance, is urgently needed," the Dutch team said. Early detection and a rapid response to bird flu at a global level would greatly reduce the cost of dealing with a full-blown outbreak, they added.

Hugh Pennington, the internationally renowned emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, said: "If the mutation takes place or some kind of gene exchange happens to allow it to spread from person to person, then we get into the severity that this article [in Nature] discusses.

"Against this virus, we don't have any immunity, and it is the fact that it is brand new to our immune systems that gets people worried.

"How serious it is will depend on the kind of virus that develops, but we have no way of knowing, so it is really quite difficult to make any definitive predictions or put any odds on it happening at all. They are right to be concerned, and to call for well-formulated contingency plans, but it is very much something that we will have to wait and see about."
<A href="http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=573902005">"The Scotsman" News paper</A>
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Countries face quarantine in bid to beat killer disease</font>

MARGARET NEIGHBOUR
Thursday, 26th May 2005

TRAVEL and trade restrictions could be placed on countries if there is a serious outbreak of deadly diseases such as bird flu and SARS under new rules agreed by the World Health Organisation yesterday. </B></center>
The regulations, adopted by the WHO's 192 member states after two years of negotiations, oblige countries to tighten up disease detection and lay down guidelines for international measures.

In future, the United Nations agency must be informed quickly of any outbreak of four diseases - bird flu, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), smallpox and polio.

The news came as China became the latest country to be caught up in the bird flu scare. It rushed millions of doses of vaccine to a western province near Tibet after migrating geese were found to have died from the virus.

The 178 bar-headed geese found in a nature reserve in Qinghai province were the first cases of bird flu that China has reported since last July. Health experts worry that the birds, which cross the country on routes that stretch from Siberia to New Zealand, could spread the virus to China's vast population of domesticated ducks and geese.

Humans in close contact with infected birds have died from the condition and scientists say it is only a matter of time before bird flu mutates to became a disease passed between humans.

The Chinese government closed all the country's nature reserves to the public and ordered ducks, geese and other poultry in Qinghai to be vaccinated against bird flu. Officials said three million doses of vaccine had been sent to the province.

Farms near bird migration routes elsewhere were also ordered to vaccinate poultry against the disease.

The Beijing government said the virus in Qinghai had not spread to humans or other poultry. However, the death toll in the latest Asian bird flu outbreak rose to 54 yesterday, when another fatality was reported in Vietnam.

China was the source of the 2003 SARS outbreak which spread to 30 countries and killed 800 people, and it has been accused of being slow to inform the WHO and neighbouring countries of what was at the time a new disease.

Under the new rules agreed yesterday, any "potential international public health concern", including outbreaks from unknown causes or sources, and potentially deadly sicknesses such as cholera and yellow fever, must be reported when they are sufficiently serious.

Dr Lee Jong-wook, the WHO's director-general, said: "This is a major step forward for international health. These new regulations recognise that diseases do not respect national boundaries. They are urgently needed to help limit the threats to public health."

The regulations greatly extend the scope of the previous guidelines, drawn up in 1969, which required countries to report only three diseases - cholera, plague and yellow fever - to the UN agency, but demanded little else.

In any disagreement between the WHO and a member state on the seriousness of an outbreak, the rules allow the head of the UN body to summon a committee of experts to make recommendations on tackling the health threat. Such recommendations could range from continued vigilance to the requesting of proof of vaccination and to travel bans for people or goods.

Member states now have two years to make the regulations part of their own national law.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=161&id=565702005
 

libtoken

Veteran Member
The following, if true, indicates that the transmission of bird flu to humans has to date been relatively limited. It may just simply be wiping out most of those easily susceptible to catching the disease from birds with, at this date, very few cases of suspected human-human transmission.

But as in other endeavours, the opponent only has to be successful once. The upswing in the number of avian deaths suggests that there are more opportunities for humans to come into contact with infected birds, hence the Chinese push to try to stop the virus from jumping from wild into domestic birds.

The situation still bears watching.


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/050526/325/fjsnq.html

From Reuters:

Thursday May 26, 05:35 AM

China hails bird flu vaccine amid prophesies of doom


BEIJING (Reuters) - China has developed vaccines that block the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu among birds and mammals, Xinhua news agency reported, as scientists in the west warned of a possible global pandemic killing millions.

Scientists fear that avian flu, which is infectious in birds but does not spread easily among humans, could mutate into a form more capable of passing from animals to people.

The H5N1 strain first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

(snip)
China's Ministry of Agriculture had given its approval, and a sales permit, for the vaccines, Xinhua said, without mentioning whether the treatments had been evaluated outside the country.

The agency said supplies of the new vaccines had already been sent to far-flung western Qinghai province, where China has been scrambling to contain its first breakout since late 2004 after 178 geese were found dead of the H5N1 virus on May 4.

(snip)
Local departments were being told how to dispose of bird droppings and hospitals in the affected county had opened separate departments for screening patients with fever and to observe people who had close contact with the birds.

"All hospitals have been told to set up a task force and put aside medication and facilities for the treatment of any avian flu cases that might be detected," Ai said.

(snip)
"Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota, on Wednesday in a special section of the journal Nature devoted to avian flu.

"There is a critical need for comprehensive medical and non-medical pandemic planning at the ground level that goes beyond what has been considered so far."

(snip)
 

LMonty911

Deceased
reading thru the rough babelfish and other online translator english versions of the chinese reports posted on agonist, curevents etc, it appears we may be looking at a sparsely populated area, @ 1300 humans infected, at least 121 dead, and mass quarantine-by what they poetically refer to as the "birds and beast flu". goverment assistance is being given to families who agree to keep quiet, but talking with any outside sources is being prosecuted. many of the dead are dying in homes, since they cant afford medical care. quickly fatal pneumonia with vomiting and high fever. areas are being sealed off to prevent travel to other provinces, but great concern there could have been spread beforehand, due to goverment fear of export restrictions on animal products. in addition, there appears to be martial law imposed in areas in guangdong province, also being officially denied, this allegedly due to outbreak in cows of possible foot and mouth disease.scattered hints it may have also infected pigs earlier. massive culls of catlle ongoing.

nothing being admitted to by chinese ptb. articles sugest the goverment is replaying their stand from SARS for economic reasons. artcles are difficult to understand, translations may not be completely accurate. if correct, we may be seeing outbreaks in the near future-but china has already lowered the blackout on news to the west, so surrounding areas may give the first hint if sudden clusters of flulike illness and pneumonia appear.
 

outnumbered10

Sleep? What is that?
libtoken said:
The following, if true, indicates that the transmission of bird flu to humans has to date been relatively limited. It may just simply be wiping out most of those easily susceptible to catching the disease from birds with, at this date, very few cases of suspected human-human transmission.

But as in other endeavours, the opponent only has to be successful once. The upswing in the number of avian deaths suggests that there are more opportunities for humans to come into contact with infected birds, hence the Chinese push to try to stop the virus from jumping from wild into domestic birds.

The situation still bears watching.


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/050526/325/fjsnq.html

From Reuters:

Thursday May 26, 05:35 AM

China hails bird flu vaccine amid prophesies of doom


BEIJING (Reuters) - China has developed vaccines that block the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu among birds and mammals, Xinhua news agency reported, as scientists in the west warned of a possible global pandemic killing millions.

Scientists fear that avian flu, which is infectious in birds but does not spread easily among humans, could mutate into a form more capable of passing from animals to people.

The H5N1 strain first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

(snip)
China's Ministry of Agriculture had given its approval, and a sales permit, for the vaccines, Xinhua said, without mentioning whether the treatments had been evaluated outside the country.

The agency said supplies of the new vaccines had already been sent to far-flung western Qinghai province, where China has been scrambling to contain its first breakout since late 2004 after 178 geese were found dead of the H5N1 virus on May 4.

(snip)
Local departments were being told how to dispose of bird droppings and hospitals in the affected county had opened separate departments for screening patients with fever and to observe people who had close contact with the birds.

"All hospitals have been told to set up a task force and put aside medication and facilities for the treatment of any avian flu cases that might be detected," Ai said.

(snip)
"Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota, on Wednesday in a special section of the journal Nature devoted to avian flu.

"There is a critical need for comprehensive medical and non-medical pandemic planning at the ground level that goes beyond what has been considered so far."

(snip)

I think I have my answer here- since we are surrounded by lakes and get tons of migrating geese, kids get sick all the time from goose droppings in the water- that is why I don't often let mine swim in the small lakes...
So, it looks like people could pick up this bird flu simply by swimming in the lake, if there's enough droppings in it like it gets around here! :sht:
ON10
 
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