What do you think the market will be for electric vehicles?

[Bill P]

I have a meeting Monday with the CEO of an Indian electric vehicle manufacturer.

I would appreciate any insight on the near to intermediate outlook for EVs in North America.

I am thinking that now might be an interesting time so as to be in position for a market demand in the future when Peak Oil really starts to impact our economy.

Thanks in advance for any comments.

 

[hitssquad]

Any growth in electric vehicles will come in the form of pluggable hybrids.

autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/gridable-hybrids

 

[von Koehler]

The questions I would have are: What is different about your vehicle that would make it better then the earlier, failed GM attempt? It would seem the major hurdles are battery storage capacity, recharge times, cost, and range.

The engineering of the electric drive train/motor seems to be mature.

Flavius Aetius

 

[SmartAZ]

Maybe you need to be more specific.

Electric vehicles are already very popular for specialized applications. In Sun City (retirement city near Phoenix) almost a third of the vehicles on the streets (daytime) are golf carts. The local university has hundreds of electric vehicles, from two seater golf carts to fully equipped maintenance trucks comparable to vans or pickups. Every company big enough to have security guards also has some number of golf carts for them to get around.

What all these examples have in common is that the vehicles never get more than a half mile from where they live. Are you thinking of a longer range or some more general application?

 

[LoupGarou]

Check with your local electrical company (Dominion VA power here in CVA). A lot of them across the country are locked into a certain price for a specific time frame. Ours here is 7.4c/KWH (last time I checked). While we have two nuclear plants and several hydro units, A lot of out power does come from either coal or oil/NG. The prices here become uncapped in 2008, and I have already heard rumors of 300-500% increase to cover both fuel costs rising and the damage from the three hurricanes we got hit with a few years ago. Again, these were rumors, but even if they were only partly right and it doubles, it could change the minds of people thinking about EV's. I have already noticed more people riding bicycles around town, and it's winter. You might want to talk to your local producer/distributor and see what they are speculating the price will do in your area before committing on the dotted line. You also might want to see what the price is for a battery pack rebuild if they are the "plug in at night" hybrids, a few of them are in the $10K-15K region and needed every few years. Not exactly on the "oil change" or even engine replacement level of $$$s. Also, if you would, find out the MPG for both highway and city on their models, some of the ones I have seen have great city MPG, but drop like a brick when on the highway.

I'm still trying to figure out how to sneak one of the VW Lupo TDIs (no relation) into the country.

Loup Garou

 

[Charlie]

IMHO at this time they are just "toys" and not functional. Add in the fact that even tho they are electric, you still have to hook them up to a coal, natural gas, nuclear, whatever kind of generator to power em up and what the heck good are they? Solar is a joke as it takes more energy to make solar panels than they produce over their lifetime. At least so far. So far a big portion this "alternative energy stuff" for the most part is smoke and mirriors. The REAL stuff in alternative energy is conservation. And there are many neat things there. However, on the topic of transportation....not much worth a crap so far.


Get a bicycle if you really want to make a "energy statement". If you need actual transportation.....good old gasoline and diesel is still the way to go until something major comes down the pike.

 

[Doc1]

Your answers

Bill,
This is an area I've studied with more than passing interest. I'll give you MY ideas of what will make a viable electric/hybrid vehicle, however, you will need to negotiate a minefield of regulatory issues and a fairly stupid consumer base.
Firstly, current hybrids marketed in North America are ridiculous: They all, to date, use gasoline engines and expensive, exotic battery packs.
"My" hybrid would use conventional lead-acid batteries (much like a golf cart), a small diesel engine/generator and have the ability to be charged overnight by household mains current. Additionally, your dealerships should also serve as a battery recycling depot where, much like a one hour oil change franchise, a customer could drive in, have their worn out battery changed quickly - and relatively inexpensively - and be on their way.
Do these things and I believe you have a practical, saleable vehicle which could be produced for far less than current hybrids.

Best regards
Doc

 

[hitssquad]

"My" hybrid would use conventional lead-acid batteries (much like a golf cart), a small diesel engine/generator and have the ability to be charged overnight by household mains current.
[...]
Do these things and I believe you have a practical, saleable vehicle which could be produced for far less than current hybrids.

Diesel cars, for smog-emission reasons, are about to be largely outlawed in the United States. To get around the emissions laws, a diesel car will have at least to be designed to inject urea.

google.com/search?q=diesel+cars+emissions+2008+%22united+states%22+urea

The qualifying diesel models will be exotic and expensive.

 

[Jerry]

Hi Bill,

Jumping to a conclusion here, would it be the Reva ? In my opinion, the vehicle was designed for a very urban environment, and will be at a disadvantage in suburbia and rural environs. Although it claims to hold 2 adults and 2 kids, it is really packing them in.

It is my opinion that an electric would slowly be accepted in the US if it could hold 4 comfortably, have 100 mile range and an on board charger capable of at least 5 kWh, or preferably 7 kWh on 240 VAC and could be throttled down to 2.0 kWh when on 120 VAC. The Toyota RAV 4 EV was pretty close and had a waiting list when manufacturing was halted. In fact, all the production highway capable electric models had waiting lists when the manufacturers won the suits in CA against the ARB, and halted production. The vehicle should have a battery warming and management system, and preferably AC drive for regenerative braking.

While Charlie's observations on solar were true at one time, increasing efficiencies have allowed solar panels to replace the energy used in their manufacture within 3 or 4 years. Of course, I doubt that includes mining and transportation of materials, but one can get the idea of the energy return. Typical life spans of solar PV are in excess of 30 years.

When the next fuel crisis approaches, then the electrics will gather market share. (Actually, there are not any electric vehicles in production in the U.S.) Price of electricity compared to gasoline on a cost per mile basis will win for a very long time. Case in point; I have a TDM Ranger, a battery powered Ford Ranger pickup that was assembled off the shelf to prove concept to Ford for their Ford EV Ranger. That pickup gets the equivalent of 66 miles per gallon when comparing the energy in a gallon of regular gasoline to its watt hours per mile energy usage. (That efficiency is at least 4 times greater than the energy used in a hydrogen fuel cell.) Even though my average cost for electricity is 22 cents per kWh, the price of gasoline would have to drop to about $1.11 per gallon to be cost equivalent for my 12 mpg 4 wheel drive pickup.

If we were to apply the same reasoning to a compact four seater (150 Wh/mile), at 22 cents per kWh the equivalency for a 25 mpg car would be gasoline at $1.47 per gallon. Where do those numbers go with your cost of electricity ?

Back to your topic, sorry for the drift, the car should look like a car, not a mini version of some prototype. It should run at freeway speeds for an hour. It should be rechargeable within 4 or 5 hours. Battery life should be in excess of 100,000 miles (Panasonic NiMH at SoCal Edison proved in excess of 150,000 miles with less than 10 percent degradation !) It should have creature comforts, and a warranty up the wazoo.

 

[AusieGrandad]

There will never be much of a market for electric cars beacuse the maximum amount of energy stored is too small and if you put in more batteries, you need a bigger vehicle to carry the weight, so you dont improve performance.

With a lead-acid battery powered vehicle the maximum sized hill that you can drive up is about 600 ft. then the battery is almost flat.

You can go further on flat areas, but range is still very limited.

Of course you can go further with a lighter battery, but there is a limit to how light you can make a battery.

For efficiency/ cost it is very hard to beat a small internal combustion engine, which is basically what hybrids use.

Electric cars maybe OK if you only need to travel a mile or 2 in flat areas.

AG

 

[Onebyone]

Depends. If your vehicle has a battery pack that is easily taken out and a new one replugged in in 5 mins or less at a service station then you may have a good seller.

What needs to happen to electric cars is to have that type of battery. That way the vehicle can go long distances and get a refill of a battery just like we fill our cars with gas now. This thinking is what has been wrong with the electric car planning so far. Electric is a good way to go but the battery(ies) to to be able to be plugged in like an electric plug, quickly recharged, lightweight, safe and inexpensive so the gas stations can keep them in stock.

You would be getting a recharged battery like you get a refilled gas tank now for your gas grill.

 

[Nuthatch]

Speaking as a consumer, the electric vehicle could never justify its expense. RT to town for me, with no running around-parking it and walking everywhere, is 14 miles. Little wiggle room in an all electric vehicle to go anywhere I really need to go, like the larger town where I teach- 25 miles RT.

Not to mention cost for maintanence, keeping charged, etc. I'd get a moped or something first.

 

[don24mac]

Well, besides what's been mentioned, what's the expected service life of the EV. And, more importantly, after the service life has expired, how/where are the vehicles disposed of. With all the electrical/computer components in them, they can't just be dropped at a landfill. This could become a big problem for manufacturers/retailers of EV's and Hybrids. How is Toyota gearing up to handle 10 year old Prius'? They're designed to not last any longer than that. You don't want to be stuck with this liability down the road.

 

[biere]

Right now the market could use a small diesel car with some of the technology the hybrids use, like high pressure tires for low rolling resistance and stuff like that.

Emissions are an upcoming problem so the time to get something is most likely now.

Electric has to either be cheaper than gas or diesel for me to consider it, or it has to get rid of some its problems like short range and lifespan expected costs being as high as gas.

So I guess I am not in the market for what is going to be offered.

 

[Hokey]

It comes down to an individuals economics and the market segment you're trying to target. IMO, for an electric vehicle, if you want your market to get into mainstream you have to find a niche. Like others have said here, I think electrics have to solve a few issues before it becomes a truly useful vehicle..and face it, energy storage is the main issue.

For myself, I might actually consider an electric if the price was right. I would use it as a second vehicle to run around town, run into work, etc. in other words not travel far. It wouldn't have to be any bigger than a Smart car, but it would have to seat four. It would also have to meet all safety standards for a North American vehicle.

 

[TJA]

Ditch the batteries for the most part and power them from orbital solar panels that beam the power down through microwave beams along the major highways.

That although technically doable, you won't get past the high cost of putting anything into orbit let alone truly building something really large there. Toss in the problems with actually beaming microwaves through the air, legal, opinion, etc and even if you could build such a system economically you'd never be able to get past the red tape.

I'm sure that we will see an increase in the usage of electric vehicles but the problems are, first where does the electricity come from and second how do you store enough in a transportable form to compare to what we have now.

 

[Worrier King]

Good chance that even if the best case scenario happened, the PTB would raise electric rates to control the market, or pander the industry to preferred friends via regulation. Biggest problem is you need a chain of plug in stations to create mass market. Government regulations are probably investment prohibitive, plus you'll have a whole new breed of "electric vehicle" lawyers and insurance men.

So invest in the electical plug-in franchise chains instead. Or have built-in, carry-along, grid-free solar chargers for them.

Or invent anti-gravity...

 

[Head'n Home]

I recently did a search on the internet for hybrid wehicles and turned up an interesting vehicle. I found that up to about 1999 Nissan had built a station wagon that looked rather nice and was used in California but has been discontinued without much info as to why.

This was the Nissan Electra and seemed to be a better choice than some others I have seen. Due to our general driving habits (retired) an electric car with at least a 100 mile range between charges is easily supported. We drive rather locally or up to 20 miles each way to a larger shopping city.

If you consider that most personal vehicles sit in your garage overnight and in the company parking lot all day there would seem to be a good amount of time for recharging for many folks. Of course, in my life as a traveling sales guy, this would never do. We could rack up 60-70,000 miles a year without too much trouble but they were long days.

I'd love to see a nice electric or hybrid without 75 cupholders, 3 DVD's, GPS, off road capable, etc., just to go to the supermarket and back.

 

[Desperado]

What do you think the market will be for electric vehicles?

The markets for electric vehicles would be golf courses and for mall security.
Until they can find a way to recharge it in the same time it takes to gas up your car... they market is very limited.

 

[Windy Ridge]

During the past year several laboratories have reported getting 37-38% efficiency in some new types of solar cells. It was also reported (in Science News) that they might get even better efficiencies in the future. They might also be much cheaper to manufacture. Current common ones get 10-15% efficiency. One produced power from infrared light. It occurs to me that a clean burning flame that heats a surface to a temperature that produces the optimal infrared light frequency which would be absorbed and converted to electricity by one of these cells would be more efficient than any portable generator. If they could get the cell efficiency up to 50% it would be as efficient as a large powerplant. It would also be a lot simpler and take less maintenance. Build vehicles with a large roof area covered with these high efficiency solar cells and have a small generator using the infrared cell with a moderate sized NIMH battery. It would be very thrifty for commuters who park outdoors but people who park indoors would also save.

Windy Ridge

 

[hitssquad]

Carnot's Law and its discontents

solar cells. [...] Current common ones get 10-15% efficiency. One produced power from infrared light. It occurs to me that a clean burning flame that heats a surface to a temperature that produces the optimal infrared light frequency which would be absorbed and converted to electricity by one of these cells would be more efficient than any portable generator.

Non sequitur fallacy.

If they could get the cell efficiency up to 50% it would be as efficient as a large powerplant.

That would break Carnot's law.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_heat_engine#Carnot.27s_theorem

==
No engine operating between two heat reservoirs can be more efficient than a Carnot engine operating between the same reservoirs.
==

Build vehicles with a large roof area covered with these high efficiency solar cells

...and you would be producing less than one horspower.

It would be very thrifty for commuters who park outdoors

Non sequitur fallacy.

 

[Bill P]

Thanks everyone for your valuable insight - this is a main reason I like TB2K.

 

[Trivium Pursuit]

The Golden Eagle bicycle engine will already propel a bike at 35 mph, getting 250 mpg. If there was some whay to have a relatively lightweight electricsetup hybridized with that, it would be very interesting.

 

[hitssquad]

Trivium,

One could tow an electric-motorized trailer filled with lead-acid batteries. In fact, that has been done.

 

[idelphic]

Ditch the batteries for the most part and power them from orbital solar panels that beam the power down through microwave beams along the major highways.

That although technically doable, you won't get past the high cost of putting anything into orbit let alone truly building something really large there. Toss in the problems with actually beaming microwaves through the air, legal, opinion, etc and even if you could build such a system economically you'd never be able to get past the red tape.

I'm sure that we will see an increase in the usage of electric vehicles but the problems are, first where does the electricity come from and second how do you store enough in a transportable form to compare to what we have now.

No can do.... You can not beam that kind of power needed back to earth. How many cars are on the road...

Now,.. Think of all the airplanes that are aloft every day... Do you want to get into an airplane knowing you will be 'sliced' repeatedly by a few megawatts of HF Microwave Energy?

I think not..

A minor fifty watts from my mobile is enough for me,.... Ouch.

 

[Ice]

This site is in Canada but they have this Electric Scooter

that sure looks good to me and seems very well built

not those cheap things I think this would be good for

folks that don't have to go far to work it has a

max. range of 40 miles per charge


http://www.nationalmotorsports.ca/showroom.php#evade


ICE