It's been drilled into every one's head how unlike Ebola is to the Flu, but that could blindside us to not look for any similarities.
It might surprise you, even though Ebola is not airborne like flu, just how many of the seasonal influences that unleash flu every fall and winter could also enhance Ebola contagiousness then, too!
According to..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season
The exact mechanism behind the seasonal nature of influenza outbreaks is unclear. Some proposed explanations are:
- People are indoors more often during the winter, they are in close contact more often, and this promotes transmission from person to person.
- A seasonal decline in the amount of ultraviolet radiation may reduce the likelihood of the virus being damaged or killed by direct radiation damage or indirect effects (i. e. ozone concentration) increasing the probability of infection.
- Cold temperatures lead to drier air, which may dehydrate mucous membranes, preventing the body from effectively defending against respiratory virus infections.[6][7][8]
- The virus may linger longer on exposed surfaces (doorknobs, countertops, etc.) in colder temperatures.
- In nations where children do not go to school in the summer, there is a more pronounced beginning to flu season, coinciding with the start of public school. It is thought that the creche environment is perfect for the spread of illness.
- Vitamin D production from Ultraviolet-B in the skin changes with the seasons and affects the immune system.[9][10][11]
- Research in guinea pigs has shown that the aerosol transmission of the virus is enhanced when the air is cold and dry.[6]
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html?_r=0 says...
- The virus was transmitted best at a low humidity, 20 percent, and not transmitted at all when the humidity reached 80 percent.
- Flu viruses are more stable in cold air, and low humidity also helps the virus particles remain in the air. That is because the viruses float in the air in little respiratory droplets, Dr. Palese said. When the air is humid, those droplets pick up water, grow larger and fall to the ground.
Seems to me, even though Ebola is not supposed to be airborne, every one of those same mechanisms above should make Ebola much more contagious then, too.
Especially as we already know Ebola in the lab when subjected to cooler temperatures, stays viable much longer on surfaces then, weeks longer, in fact. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20553340
And, we know that Ebola aerosol transmission is well documented. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola
We've never seen Ebola, that I'm aware of, infection contagion rates in an environment outside of African heat and humidity.
It's possible that whatever contagion risk level Ebola is today, while warmer, for surface, aerosol or airborne ability to infect others, come this fall and winter colder weather, it could become a whole different ballgame! Surface and aerosol infection risks will most certainly go up and, who knows, but it might just be the right environment then for limited airborne transmission, too.
- Shane
It might surprise you, even though Ebola is not airborne like flu, just how many of the seasonal influences that unleash flu every fall and winter could also enhance Ebola contagiousness then, too!
According to..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season
The exact mechanism behind the seasonal nature of influenza outbreaks is unclear. Some proposed explanations are:
- People are indoors more often during the winter, they are in close contact more often, and this promotes transmission from person to person.
- A seasonal decline in the amount of ultraviolet radiation may reduce the likelihood of the virus being damaged or killed by direct radiation damage or indirect effects (i. e. ozone concentration) increasing the probability of infection.
- Cold temperatures lead to drier air, which may dehydrate mucous membranes, preventing the body from effectively defending against respiratory virus infections.[6][7][8]
- The virus may linger longer on exposed surfaces (doorknobs, countertops, etc.) in colder temperatures.
- In nations where children do not go to school in the summer, there is a more pronounced beginning to flu season, coinciding with the start of public school. It is thought that the creche environment is perfect for the spread of illness.
- Vitamin D production from Ultraviolet-B in the skin changes with the seasons and affects the immune system.[9][10][11]
- Research in guinea pigs has shown that the aerosol transmission of the virus is enhanced when the air is cold and dry.[6]
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/health/research/05flu.html?_r=0 says...
- The virus was transmitted best at a low humidity, 20 percent, and not transmitted at all when the humidity reached 80 percent.
- Flu viruses are more stable in cold air, and low humidity also helps the virus particles remain in the air. That is because the viruses float in the air in little respiratory droplets, Dr. Palese said. When the air is humid, those droplets pick up water, grow larger and fall to the ground.
Seems to me, even though Ebola is not supposed to be airborne, every one of those same mechanisms above should make Ebola much more contagious then, too.
Especially as we already know Ebola in the lab when subjected to cooler temperatures, stays viable much longer on surfaces then, weeks longer, in fact. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20553340
And, we know that Ebola aerosol transmission is well documented. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola
We've never seen Ebola, that I'm aware of, infection contagion rates in an environment outside of African heat and humidity.
It's possible that whatever contagion risk level Ebola is today, while warmer, for surface, aerosol or airborne ability to infect others, come this fall and winter colder weather, it could become a whole different ballgame! Surface and aerosol infection risks will most certainly go up and, who knows, but it might just be the right environment then for limited airborne transmission, too.
- Shane
