WAR Trump threatens Iran with "dire consequences" if Houthi attacks continue; US bases in ME placed on War Alert
- Thread starter jward
- Start date
jward
passin' thru
INTL - The U.S. embassy in Baghdad is preparing for an ordered evacuation, citing “heightened security risks.”
Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal 5m U.S. EMBASSY TO BOUNCE AS IRAN THREATENS STRIKE The U.S. embassy in Baghdad is preparing for an ordered evacuation, citing “heightened security risks.” This comes hours after Iran’s Defense Minister threatened to strike U.S. bases if nuclear talks collapse or...
jward
passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
9m
Mideast escalation coming up?
US prepares to evacuate embassy in Iraq due to heightened security risks in the region, Reuters reports.
View: https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1932857025647817086
@IsraelRadar_com
9m
Mideast escalation coming up?
US prepares to evacuate embassy in Iraq due to heightened security risks in the region, Reuters reports.
View: https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1932857025647817086
auxman
Deus vult...
Massive cyber attacks across the Middle East have started.
Iran is attacking Kuwaiti and Jordanian military servers.
View: https://twitter.com/LauraLoomer/status/1932908594237776299?t=ydvzMVNN4_B70-SDDG0QHA&s=19
Iran is attacking Kuwaiti and Jordanian military servers.
View: https://twitter.com/LauraLoomer/status/1932908594237776299?t=ydvzMVNN4_B70-SDDG0QHA&s=19
jward
passin' thru
zerohedge.com
Is something brewing amid US-Iran tensions, given the stalled nuclear negotiations and ratcheting accusations, demands, and counter-demands?
The State Department has ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iranian assets - including missions in the Middle East but also Eastern Europe and Northern Africa - to convene emergency action committees (EACs) and send cables back to Washington about measures to mitigate risks. The Associated Press also adds that the US Embassy in Baghdad is preparing to order all nonessential personnel to leave due to potential regional unrest.
“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” said a State Department official who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq.”
Meanwhile the WaPo - a conduit for the deep state - writes that "the United States is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, with the State Department authorizing the evacuation of some personnel in Iraq and the Pentagon green-lighting the departure of military family members across the Middle East."
In recent months, U.S. intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the United States. Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets in the region.
As GMI summarizes the latest situation:
“We are watching and worried,” said one senior diplomat in the region. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
Both oil and gold prices spiked on the alarming headlines which suggest new regional conflict could be imminent, with Israel poised to act...
Gold gaining...
Meanwhile, Iran has urged the United States to prioritize a negotiated solution, with its mission to the United Nations saying that “diplomacy — not militarism — is the only path forward.”
“Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and U.S. militarism only fuels instability,” the Iranian mission warned in a social media statement.
Iran and the United States are tentatively scheduled to hold a sixth round of direct talks in Oman on Sunday between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with discussions between their technical teams. But people familiar with the planning said Wednesday that it is possible that talks may not happen.
Trump has described the negotiations, which began in April, as heading in a positive direction and has said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any military plans. But on Wednesday, Trump said he was “less confident” that Iran would agree to U.S. demands that it completely shut down its nuclear enrichment program.
“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said. He has frequently said that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and threatened military action if an agreement is not reached.
In a post on X Wednesday, Araghchi said that Trump’s demand that Iran not develop a nuclear weapon “is actually in line with our own doctrine and could become the main foundation for a deal. … It is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program is within reach — and could be achieved rapidly,” he said.
Although Witkoff indicated early in the negotiations that some kind of compromise could be reached allowing Iran to continue producing a small quantity of low-level enriched uranium for civil purposes, the administration has since rejected that possibility.
The escalating tension comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors is meeting in Vienna, where Director General Rafael Grossi reported Tuesday that Iran has dramatically increased the amount of near weapons-grade material it possesses.
In a contentious meeting Wednesday, Iran’s envoy to the agency, Reza Najafi, charged the Europeans with violating the decade-old agreement, which technically still remains in effect, claiming they failed to lift all of their own sanctions when the original deal was struck.
In a separate post Wednesday, Araghchi said that “instead of displaying remorse or a desire to facilitate diplomacy,” the Europeans were “promoting confrontation through the absurd demand that Iran must be punished for exercising its right” under the agreement “to respond to non-performance by counterparts.”
If the IAEA governors proceed with plans to vote on a resolution against Iran at the end of their week-long meeting Friday, Araghchi said, Iran will “react STRONGLY. Blame will lie solely and FULLY with malign actors who shatter their own relevance.”
www.zerohedge.com
US On High Alert In Anticipation Of Potential Israeli Strike On Iran. WaPo Reports
Is something brewing amid US-Iran tensions, given the stalled nuclear negotiations and ratcheting accusations, demands, and counter-demands?
The State Department has ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iranian assets - including missions in the Middle East but also Eastern Europe and Northern Africa - to convene emergency action committees (EACs) and send cables back to Washington about measures to mitigate risks. The Associated Press also adds that the US Embassy in Baghdad is preparing to order all nonessential personnel to leave due to potential regional unrest.
“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” said a State Department official who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq.”
Meanwhile the WaPo - a conduit for the deep state - writes that "the United States is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, with the State Department authorizing the evacuation of some personnel in Iraq and the Pentagon green-lighting the departure of military family members across the Middle East."
“I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told the New York Post.
In recent months, U.S. intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the United States. Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets in the region.
As GMI summarizes the latest situation:
- The IDF have elevated their operational readiness. In response, the United States has mirrored this posture, anticipating potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- A senior diplomat, speaking to the Washington Post, stated: “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
- The U.S. State Department has directed all embassies within Iranian strike range—including several in Europe, to immediately convene Emergency Action Committees and transmit updated risk assessments to Washington.
- The Trump imposed deadline on Iranian nuclear negotiations expires tomorrow, June 12th. U.S. officials speaking to Axios now assess it is increasingly unlikely the sixth round of talks in Oman will proceed as scheduled on Sunday.
- General Kurilla, Commander of U.S. Central Command, has postponed his scheduled testimony before Congress due to mounting tensions across the Middle East.
“We are watching and worried,” said one senior diplomat in the region. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
Both oil and gold prices spiked on the alarming headlines which suggest new regional conflict could be imminent, with Israel poised to act...
Gold gaining...
Meanwhile, Iran has urged the United States to prioritize a negotiated solution, with its mission to the United Nations saying that “diplomacy — not militarism — is the only path forward.”
“Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and U.S. militarism only fuels instability,” the Iranian mission warned in a social media statement.
President Trump has definitely expressed his preference for negotiated solution, but Iran insists that it be able to keep enriching uranium, at least at low levels, as a matter of national sovereignty.
Iran and the United States are tentatively scheduled to hold a sixth round of direct talks in Oman on Sunday between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with discussions between their technical teams. But people familiar with the planning said Wednesday that it is possible that talks may not happen.
Trump has described the negotiations, which began in April, as heading in a positive direction and has said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any military plans. But on Wednesday, Trump said he was “less confident” that Iran would agree to U.S. demands that it completely shut down its nuclear enrichment program.
“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said. He has frequently said that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and threatened military action if an agreement is not reached.
In a post on X Wednesday, Araghchi said that Trump’s demand that Iran not develop a nuclear weapon “is actually in line with our own doctrine and could become the main foundation for a deal. … It is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program is within reach — and could be achieved rapidly,” he said.
Although Witkoff indicated early in the negotiations that some kind of compromise could be reached allowing Iran to continue producing a small quantity of low-level enriched uranium for civil purposes, the administration has since rejected that possibility.
The escalating tension comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors is meeting in Vienna, where Director General Rafael Grossi reported Tuesday that Iran has dramatically increased the amount of near weapons-grade material it possesses.
In a contentious meeting Wednesday, Iran’s envoy to the agency, Reza Najafi, charged the Europeans with violating the decade-old agreement, which technically still remains in effect, claiming they failed to lift all of their own sanctions when the original deal was struck.
In a separate post Wednesday, Araghchi said that “instead of displaying remorse or a desire to facilitate diplomacy,” the Europeans were “promoting confrontation through the absurd demand that Iran must be punished for exercising its right” under the agreement “to respond to non-performance by counterparts.”
If the IAEA governors proceed with plans to vote on a resolution against Iran at the end of their week-long meeting Friday, Araghchi said, Iran will “react STRONGLY. Blame will lie solely and FULLY with malign actors who shatter their own relevance.”
US On High Alert In Anticipation Of Potential Israeli Strike On Iran, WaPo Reports<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Iran Says It Will Accelerate Nuclear Work After U.N. Atomic Agency Censure; Iran's new nuclear steps will cast a fresh shadow over struggling U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
Thursday, June 12, 2025, 6:07 AM ET
Wall Street Journal
By Laurence Norman
Iran said it would open a new uranium enrichment facility and increase its production of highly enriched fissile material after the U.N. atomic agency member states declared Tehran had failed to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, casting a fresh shadow over struggling U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
Iran’s announcement comes ahead of a sixth round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran expected on Sunday. President Trump said on Monday he had grown less confident about striking a deal with Tehran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency board resolution, which passed by 19-3, is the first time Iran has been found in noncompliance with its nuclear duties in 20 years. The vote was called over Iran’s repeated refusal over the past six years to explain the presence of undeclared nuclear material in Iran.
Last month, the IAEA warned it couldn’t say with certainty that Iran hadn’t diverted undeclared nuclear material—potentially for a military purpose—that was found in the country after 2018, when the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear accord.
The U.S. says it has no evidence Iran has decided to develop a nuclear weapon, but U.S. officials say it could take Iran just a few months. U.S. intelligence officials said last year it was becoming more likely Iran might decide to build a bomb and that Tehran was conducting work that could help it do so.
The IAEA vote opens the way for Iran’s nuclear work to be referred to the U.N. Security Council for action. European diplomats, who pushed the resolution alongside Washington, say that unless Iran reverses course, they would later this year reimpose the international sanctions lifted on Iran under the 2015 deal.
Iran has said that if sanctions are snapped back it could kick out inspectors and leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which obliges participants not to develop nuclear weapons.
Iran has repeatedly responded to IAEA board censures of its nuclear work by escalating its program.
In a statement from Iran’s Foreign Ministry and atomic agency immediately after the IAEA vote, Iran said that it would open a new enrichment facility and would switch all its basic centrifuges at its underground Fordow site into more advanced machines, which can enrich uranium more swiftly, Iranian media said.
Iran is already producing enough highly enriched uranium each month to make one nuclear weapon, mainly at Fordow. Advanced centrifuges there will speed that production. Tehran says its nuclear program is for entirely peaceful energy purposes but it is the only nonnuclear weapons power to be producing 60% enriched uranium.
It isn’t clear how long it would take Iran to open a new enrichment site. At a minimum, that is likely to take many months. There have long been concerns that Tehran intends to set up an enrichment site in tunnels it has dug deep underground at its Natanz facility.
The vote comes as the U.S. moves to draw down its presence in parts of the Middle East to essential personnel, the State Department and Pentagon said Wednesday.
Experts and former officials say that Israel could try to defuse what it sees as the threat to its security of a nuclear-armed Iran if the deal talks are stymied. Trump said recently that he warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against taking action—such as a military strike—that could threaten the talks with Iran.
Iran has warned it would respond to any attack by hitting U.S. bases in the region.
Iranian Defense Minister Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh said Wednesday that if “a conflict is imposed on us…all U.S. bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries.”
Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, was supposed to testify on Capitol Hill Thursday but canceled his appearance to return to Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Fla., a U.S. official said.
The U.S. and European powers say Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the probe places Tehran in breach of its basic nuclear safeguards duties under the NPT. Iran has claimed the nuclear material was there because of sabotage by Israel and others.
The three countries that opposed Thursday’s resolution were Russia, China and Burkina Faso.
The nuclear talks have stumbled over a fundamental divide between the two sides. Trump has said he wants a deal that ends Iran’s enrichment of fissile material, saying that is the only way to ensure Tehran can’t develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has made continuing enrichment its core red line over two decades of nuclear negotiations.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
Iran Says It Will Accelerate Nuclear Work After U.N. Atomic Agency Censure - WSJ
Thursday, June 12, 2025, 6:07 AM ET
Wall Street Journal
By Laurence Norman
Iran said it would open a new uranium enrichment facility and increase its production of highly enriched fissile material after the U.N. atomic agency member states declared Tehran had failed to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, casting a fresh shadow over struggling U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
Iran’s announcement comes ahead of a sixth round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran expected on Sunday. President Trump said on Monday he had grown less confident about striking a deal with Tehran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency board resolution, which passed by 19-3, is the first time Iran has been found in noncompliance with its nuclear duties in 20 years. The vote was called over Iran’s repeated refusal over the past six years to explain the presence of undeclared nuclear material in Iran.
Last month, the IAEA warned it couldn’t say with certainty that Iran hadn’t diverted undeclared nuclear material—potentially for a military purpose—that was found in the country after 2018, when the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear accord.
The U.S. says it has no evidence Iran has decided to develop a nuclear weapon, but U.S. officials say it could take Iran just a few months. U.S. intelligence officials said last year it was becoming more likely Iran might decide to build a bomb and that Tehran was conducting work that could help it do so.
The IAEA vote opens the way for Iran’s nuclear work to be referred to the U.N. Security Council for action. European diplomats, who pushed the resolution alongside Washington, say that unless Iran reverses course, they would later this year reimpose the international sanctions lifted on Iran under the 2015 deal.
Iran has said that if sanctions are snapped back it could kick out inspectors and leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which obliges participants not to develop nuclear weapons.
Iran has repeatedly responded to IAEA board censures of its nuclear work by escalating its program.
In a statement from Iran’s Foreign Ministry and atomic agency immediately after the IAEA vote, Iran said that it would open a new enrichment facility and would switch all its basic centrifuges at its underground Fordow site into more advanced machines, which can enrich uranium more swiftly, Iranian media said.
Iran is already producing enough highly enriched uranium each month to make one nuclear weapon, mainly at Fordow. Advanced centrifuges there will speed that production. Tehran says its nuclear program is for entirely peaceful energy purposes but it is the only nonnuclear weapons power to be producing 60% enriched uranium.
It isn’t clear how long it would take Iran to open a new enrichment site. At a minimum, that is likely to take many months. There have long been concerns that Tehran intends to set up an enrichment site in tunnels it has dug deep underground at its Natanz facility.
The vote comes as the U.S. moves to draw down its presence in parts of the Middle East to essential personnel, the State Department and Pentagon said Wednesday.
Experts and former officials say that Israel could try to defuse what it sees as the threat to its security of a nuclear-armed Iran if the deal talks are stymied. Trump said recently that he warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against taking action—such as a military strike—that could threaten the talks with Iran.
Iran has warned it would respond to any attack by hitting U.S. bases in the region.
Iranian Defense Minister Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh said Wednesday that if “a conflict is imposed on us…all U.S. bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries.”
Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, was supposed to testify on Capitol Hill Thursday but canceled his appearance to return to Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Fla., a U.S. official said.
The U.S. and European powers say Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the probe places Tehran in breach of its basic nuclear safeguards duties under the NPT. Iran has claimed the nuclear material was there because of sabotage by Israel and others.
The three countries that opposed Thursday’s resolution were Russia, China and Burkina Faso.
The nuclear talks have stumbled over a fundamental divide between the two sides. Trump has said he wants a deal that ends Iran’s enrichment of fissile material, saying that is the only way to ensure Tehran can’t develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has made continuing enrichment its core red line over two decades of nuclear negotiations.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
Iran Says It Will Accelerate Nuclear Work After U.N. Atomic Agency Censure - WSJ
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northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
Faytuks Network
@FaytuksNetwork
45m
BREAKING: We are fairly close to an agreement with Iran - Trump says
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
45m
BREAKING: Trump says Israel should not strike Iran, as nuclear deal 'close'
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1933203478807011421
@FaytuksNetwork
45m
BREAKING: We are fairly close to an agreement with Iran - Trump says
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
45m
BREAKING: Trump says Israel should not strike Iran, as nuclear deal 'close'
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1933203478807011421
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
With apologies to Mal: "I smell a lot of 'HOPIUM' coming off this..."
jward
passin' thru
this refers to yesterday- june 11'25s action, not the heightened alert the ME bases were put on at the beginning of this thread...
OSINTWarfare
@OSINTWarfare
U.S. President Donald Trump on why he put U.S. assets in the Middle East on high alert:
“There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said we gotta to tell them to get out, because, something could happen soon.
I don't want to be the one who didn't give any warning, and missiles are flying into their buildings. It's possible.”
rt 32s
View: https://twitter.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1933209357845508111
OSINTWarfare
@OSINTWarfare
U.S. President Donald Trump on why he put U.S. assets in the Middle East on high alert:
“There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said we gotta to tell them to get out, because, something could happen soon.
I don't want to be the one who didn't give any warning, and missiles are flying into their buildings. It's possible.”
rt 32s
View: https://twitter.com/OSINTWarfare/status/1933209357845508111
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
According to CBS News, the Trump Administration is in discussions with the Pentagon and weighting options on how to support potential military action by Israel against Iran without leading to it, with options including aerial-refueling and/or intelligence sharing for the Israeli Air Force, though officials are unaware of any commitments made so far to Israel.
@sentdefender
According to CBS News, the Trump Administration is in discussions with the Pentagon and weighting options on how to support potential military action by Israel against Iran without leading to it, with options including aerial-refueling and/or intelligence sharing for the Israeli Air Force, though officials are unaware of any commitments made so far to Israel.
jward
passin' thru
Justin
@Justin077116818
7m
You and I disagree on a lot but we both know this. This not just about Israel. This is about the Middje East. Iran is already backing a proxy war with the Saudis. We have never put boots on the ground for Israel, but we have done so for other Iranian enemies. We have defense cooperation agreements with many of Iran's enemies including Turkey a member of NATO. Or Saudi Arabi, Kuwait, etc. On June 12, 2025, the IAEA declared Iran in violation of its nuclear obligations, citing undeclared nuclear materials and restricted inspector access.
In response, Iran condemned the resolution as politically motivated and announced plans to expand its uranium enrichment capabilities, including a third facility and upgraded centrifuges. While Iran has not expelled international inspectors, it has warned it may do so if external threats continue, signaling a sharp escalation but stopping short of ending inspections altogether.
Israel is doing us a favor. We need to stay out and let Trump handle this on a whole different level.
@Justin077116818
7m
You and I disagree on a lot but we both know this. This not just about Israel. This is about the Middje East. Iran is already backing a proxy war with the Saudis. We have never put boots on the ground for Israel, but we have done so for other Iranian enemies. We have defense cooperation agreements with many of Iran's enemies including Turkey a member of NATO. Or Saudi Arabi, Kuwait, etc. On June 12, 2025, the IAEA declared Iran in violation of its nuclear obligations, citing undeclared nuclear materials and restricted inspector access.
In response, Iran condemned the resolution as politically motivated and announced plans to expand its uranium enrichment capabilities, including a third facility and upgraded centrifuges. While Iran has not expelled international inspectors, it has warned it may do so if external threats continue, signaling a sharp escalation but stopping short of ending inspections altogether.
Israel is doing us a favor. We need to stay out and let Trump handle this on a whole different level.
jward
passin' thru
Sean Davis
@seanmdav
There are rumors floating around that Kurilla hid post-Iran attack U.S. casualty projections from Trump while pushing for war in Iran. Kurilla, who is a key Mike Waltz ally, was also behind the pointless and counterproductive mess in Yemen.
The entire Yemen op was an attempt to get assets in place for war with Iran, and it was designed to prove to Trump that a U.S. attack on Iran would be clean and easy. It proved the exact opposite, which is why Trump pulled the plug on it.
View: https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1933176904334389525
@seanmdav
There are rumors floating around that Kurilla hid post-Iran attack U.S. casualty projections from Trump while pushing for war in Iran. Kurilla, who is a key Mike Waltz ally, was also behind the pointless and counterproductive mess in Yemen.
The entire Yemen op was an attempt to get assets in place for war with Iran, and it was designed to prove to Trump that a U.S. attack on Iran would be clean and easy. It proved the exact opposite, which is why Trump pulled the plug on it.
View: https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1933176904334389525
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Pending attack on Iran from Israel imminent
By Craig LangfordUKDJ
June 12, 2025
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has issued an elevated threat advisory for key maritime routes following what it describes as an Israeli ultimatum: either a nuclear agreement is reached between Iran and the United States by Sunday, or “Israeli leadership has an intent to initiate military action against Iran.”
According to Update 001 – JMIC# 008-25, released via the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) network, this development is based on “open-source media” and marks a serious escalation.“The statement introduces a short operational pause until Sunday to allow diplomatic efforts,” the advisory notes.
Although there is currently “no indication that the maritime nexus is changed,” JMIC stresses that it is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further updates if required.
The bulletin warns:
“Open-source information and regional diplomatic developments indicate a marked escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran. The situation remains fluid and highly volatile.”
“At present, there is no direct evidence that commercial shipping is being targeted. However, given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted.”
It also highlights the risk posed by other groups:
“Additional threats from non-state actors such as the Houthis, who have publicly stated their intent to respond if the U.S. is perceived to be involved, also increase the risk of a broader regional impact.”
JMIC provided a brief summary of the current landscape:
“Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran concerning nuclear negotiations have reportedly stalled.”
“Rhetoric from regional actors has intensified; increasing the probability of military operations involving direct engagement.”
“There is a possibility potential operations could spill over beyond bilateral hostilities into the wider region.”
UKMTO and JMIC continue to advise merchant vessels in the region to report their positions regularly and remain alert to updates. JMIC is expected to issue another update following the outcome of this weekend’s diplomatic deadline.
Pending attack on Iran from Israel imminent
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has issued an elevated threat advisory for key maritime routes following an Israeli ultimatum: either a nuclear agreement is reached between Iran and the United States by Sunday, or “Israeli leadership has an intent to initiate military action against...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
auxman
Deus vult...
BREAKING: The ENTIRE Trump administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran.
Trump is working as hard as possible to prevent any hot conflict.
View: https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1933272755148866036?t=AoOYjZquTYwu6Mm3dnSnnw&s=19
Trump is working as hard as possible to prevent any hot conflict.
View: https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1933272755148866036?t=AoOYjZquTYwu6Mm3dnSnnw&s=19
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I speculate that by being so public about trying to negotiate with Iran, he (President Trump) is distancing himself and the US from what he knows is about to happen.
It appears that behind the scenes, the US is aware of the situation and that Netanyahu, knowing his time in office may be limited (and it almost certainly is), is taking matters into his own hands.
What I don't know is if the US or parts of the US "Deep State" are involved in the planning and execution of what is about to happen; or if Trump is aware or some or all of it, if it is.
My hunch is that it is a sort of mix of the two, with the neocon faction doing everything they can (legal or otherwise) to make sure Iran is attacked, and the "American First" group being more cautious and hoping for a different outcome.
I suspect that if Israel is going through with this, it will be in the next few days, at least within the week.
The Orthodox Jewish Party has said that they will pull out of the government over the drafting of seminary students. In that case, Netanyahu's government is gone, and it is unlikely that his party will be re-elected with a large enough majority to "form a government."
It appears that behind the scenes, the US is aware of the situation and that Netanyahu, knowing his time in office may be limited (and it almost certainly is), is taking matters into his own hands.
What I don't know is if the US or parts of the US "Deep State" are involved in the planning and execution of what is about to happen; or if Trump is aware or some or all of it, if it is.
My hunch is that it is a sort of mix of the two, with the neocon faction doing everything they can (legal or otherwise) to make sure Iran is attacked, and the "American First" group being more cautious and hoping for a different outcome.
I suspect that if Israel is going through with this, it will be in the next few days, at least within the week.
The Orthodox Jewish Party has said that they will pull out of the government over the drafting of seminary students. In that case, Netanyahu's government is gone, and it is unlikely that his party will be re-elected with a large enough majority to "form a government."
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Da Boss is doing what he can to manage the optics of the coming deluge.
He's damned GOOD at this but some things just can't be opticed away.
He's damned GOOD at this but some things just can't be opticed away.
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
58m
Three drones were shot down earlier today approaching U.S. Forces at Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq, with the drones believed to have likely been launched by Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq in response to the United States supporting Israel.
@sentdefender
58m
Three drones were shot down earlier today approaching U.S. Forces at Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq, with the drones believed to have likely been launched by Iranian-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq in response to the United States supporting Israel.
jward
passin' thru
First Red Sea Attack On Commercial Shipping Since December Launched By Houthis (Updated)
The TWZ Newsletter
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
The Houthis rebels of Yemen launched their first attack on Red Sea shipping since December, striking the Liberian-registered Magic Seas bulk cargo vessel with drone boats, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and small arms fire. The ship is currently ablaze.
The Houthis claimed credit for the attack, saying it was in support of Palestinians in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. While official reports do not name the vessel, a maritime security official confirmed that it was the Magic Seas.
The bulk cargo ship was transiting north in the Red Sea about 51 nautical miles southwest of the Yemeni port of Hodiedah when it was attacked by eight skiffs that opened fire with small arms and RPGs, according to an alert from the Ambrey maritime security firm. The ship’s “Armed Security Team (AST) had returned fire. Ambrey assessed the situation as ongoing and will provide updates when available,” the alert stated.
A short while later, “the vessel was subsequently attacked by four Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs),” the Ambrey alert continued. “Two of the USVs impacted the port side of the vessel, damaging the vessel’s cargo. The remaining two USVs were intercepted and destroyed by the AST. Based on AIS data, the vessel was still underway at the time of writing. Ambrey assessed the vessel to meet the established Houthi target profile. Ambrey assessed the situation as ongoing and will provide updates when available.”
Ambrey advised that when a vessel is attacked by USVs, “non-essential crew gather in a safe muster point above the waterline.”
In a message posted on its Al Ansar Telegram channel, the Houthis also said the Magic Seas fit the profile of ships to be targeted.
“Four naval drones attacked a ship,” the Houthis stated. “Our assessment indicates that the attacked ship meets the Yemeni criteria for targeting ships. Two naval drones collided with the left side of the ship, causing damage to its cargo.”
The Houthi shipping attacks began in November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians over the latest war between Israel and Gaza. They have forced some ships to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around Africa, boosting shipping costs by nearly $200 billion. The Houthis’ attacks sank two vessels, damaged many others, caused the death of four mariners, and led to many being held hostage after a ship was seized. The Houthi Red Sea campaign also led to nearly constant military engagements with the U.S. and its allies, including air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and repelling the militant group’s frequent missile, aerial drone, and drone boat attacks on commercial and military vessels.
In March, the U.S. launched intensified airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the shipping attacks. A ceasefire was later reached.
It is unclear whether the U.S. Navy or any other navies have responded to the Magic Seas. We have reached out to the Navy and the European-led Operation Aspides maritime security task force for more information.
At the moment, we do not know whether this is a one-off attack or whether the Houthis have started a new campaign against Red Sea shipping. We will watch this situation and provide updates when warranted.
Update: 2:03 PM Eastern –
Ambrey issued a new update:
“Ambrey received information that the vessel was taking on water and that the crew were preparing to abandon ship.”
Update: 2:43 PM Eastern –
Another update from Ambrey:
“Ambrey received further information that the crew had subsequently abandoned ship and were awaiting assistance.”
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
First Red Sea Attack On Commercial Shipping Since December Launched By Houthis (Updated)
The Liberian-registered Magic Seas was hit with multiple explosive-laden drone boats, rocket-propelled grenades and small arms fire.
www.twz.com
jward
passin' thru
Martin Kelly
@_MartinKelly_
US to resume strikes in Yemen?
Despite the below ships being assigned to ASPIDES, not a single asset moved to protect nor rescue crew from MAGIC SEAS or ETERNITY C.
Italian Navy: Andrea Doria (flagship), Virginio Fasan (initially flagship).
French Navy: Forbin and Chevalier Paul.
Hellenic Navy: Psara (replacing Hydra).
Dutch Navy: HNLMS Karel Doorman (support and supply ship).
Other: The French frigate Lorraine and the Belgian frigate Louise-Marie are also mentioned in connection with Operation Aspides.
However, 2x CSG = ~100-120 fighter aircraft, plus couple of Arleigh Burkes, Ticonderogas & Ohio SSGN, possibly B-52 remain at Diego Garcia - puts the US in a good position should it so choose.
2:59 PM · Jul 9, 2025
66.9K
Views
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping)
@mercoglianos
What are the options:
1⃣Bomb, again?
2⃣Withdraw more ships due to threat to ships & crews?
3⃣Put US naval forces in the southern Red Sea as they did in early 2024?
4⃣Expand Op Aspides convoy ops?
5⃣Exert some pressure against Iran to halt their support of the Houthis?
4:37 PM · Jul 9, 2025
2,153
Views
@_MartinKelly_
US to resume strikes in Yemen?
Despite the below ships being assigned to ASPIDES, not a single asset moved to protect nor rescue crew from MAGIC SEAS or ETERNITY C.
Italian Navy: Andrea Doria (flagship), Virginio Fasan (initially flagship).
French Navy: Forbin and Chevalier Paul.
Hellenic Navy: Psara (replacing Hydra).
Dutch Navy: HNLMS Karel Doorman (support and supply ship).
Other: The French frigate Lorraine and the Belgian frigate Louise-Marie are also mentioned in connection with Operation Aspides.
However, 2x CSG = ~100-120 fighter aircraft, plus couple of Arleigh Burkes, Ticonderogas & Ohio SSGN, possibly B-52 remain at Diego Garcia - puts the US in a good position should it so choose.
2:59 PM · Jul 9, 2025
66.9K
Views
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping)
@mercoglianos
What are the options:
1⃣Bomb, again?
2⃣Withdraw more ships due to threat to ships & crews?
3⃣Put US naval forces in the southern Red Sea as they did in early 2024?
4⃣Expand Op Aspides convoy ops?
5⃣Exert some pressure against Iran to halt their support of the Houthis?
4:37 PM · Jul 9, 2025
2,153
Views
jward
passin' thru
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
4h
This is bad news.
And for the Houthis, it’s even worse.
This isn’t the Biden administration.
View: https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1943016853724708927
@Osint613
4h
This is bad news.
And for the Houthis, it’s even worse.
This isn’t the Biden administration.
View: https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1943016853724708927
hiwall
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Bomb all infrastructure. Yemen does not have much. Yemen imports most of its food. Destroy ports, the couple of highways, and the couple train tracks, and any airports they have left along with the couple of power plants. Could be done in one night. All their food would run out in a couple weeks to a month. Dead men cannot fight. War over for good.
jward
passin' thru
S p r i n t e r
@GeoWarScope1
13s
Statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces:
View: https://twitter.com/GeoWarScope1/status/1949597004981563687
@GeoWarScope1
13s
Statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces:
View: https://twitter.com/GeoWarScope1/status/1949597004981563687
I couldn't get the full statement off the X-posting copied and pasted.....
Posted for fair use.....
Yemen's Houthis threaten to target ships linked to firms dealing with Israeli ports
By ReutersJuly 27, 2025 2:48 PM PDT Updated 42 mins ago
July 27 (Reuters) - Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities, as part of what they called the fourth phase of their military operations against Israel.
In a televised statement, the Houthis' military spokesperson warned that ships would be attacked if companies ignored their warnings, regardless of their destination.
"The Yemeni Armed Forces call on all countries, if they want to avoid this escalation, to pressure the enemy to halt its aggression and lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip," he added.
Since Israel's war in Gaza began in October 2023, the Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking ships they deem as bound or linked to Israel in what they say are acts of solidarity with Palestinians.
In May, the U.S. announced a surprise deal with the Houthis where it agreed to stop a bombing campaign against them in return for an end to shipping attacks, though the Houthis said the deal did not include sparing Israel.
Reporting by Hatem Maher and Muhammad Al Gebaly; editing by Diane Craft and Marguerita Choy
Posted for fair use......
Following an attack launched by the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group on government forces’ positions in the Al-Ab area in the border Saada governorate, which resulted in the death of 27 of their fighters, government sources observed the group continuing to amass personnel and weapons toward three main fronts: Marib, Lahj, and the western coast. This signals a threat to the truce sponsored by the United Nations since April 2022.
The recent attack is considered one of the largest violations of the ceasefire and coincided with broad military movements by the Houthis toward the Marib fronts, Hodeidah governorate, and southern Yemen areas.
Field information indicates plans to besiege Marib city from several axes and cut supply lines, under the pretext of releasing a tribal leader detained by government authorities.
Meanwhile, the Yemeni government succeeded in repelling the attacks and foiled several advancement attempts, amid security warnings urging residents to avoid desert roads between Al-Jawf, Marib, and Hadramout governorates.
On another front, security sources in Aden reported uncovering cells cooperating with the Houthis that are recruiting youth from government-controlled areas. Local reports also confirmed the arrival of Houthi military reinforcements to contact zones south of Hodeidah, supported by modern weapons likely supplied through Iranian-backed channels.
These movements, according to UN warnings, reflect the fragile military situation and the unpredictability of its developments. The increasing escalation threatens the collapse of the truce, especially as the Houthis exploit the Gaza war to intensify mobilization efforts, as confirmed by Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in his recent speech.
ANHA
==============================================================
Escalation threatens the collapse of truce in Yemen
Government sources in Yemen have monitored the continued mobilization of Houthi forces and weapons toward the fronts of Marib, Lahj, and the western coast, signaling a potential undermining of the UN-brokered truce that has been in place since April 2022.
27 July, 2025 18:59Following an attack launched by the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group on government forces’ positions in the Al-Ab area in the border Saada governorate, which resulted in the death of 27 of their fighters, government sources observed the group continuing to amass personnel and weapons toward three main fronts: Marib, Lahj, and the western coast. This signals a threat to the truce sponsored by the United Nations since April 2022.
The recent attack is considered one of the largest violations of the ceasefire and coincided with broad military movements by the Houthis toward the Marib fronts, Hodeidah governorate, and southern Yemen areas.
Field information indicates plans to besiege Marib city from several axes and cut supply lines, under the pretext of releasing a tribal leader detained by government authorities.
Meanwhile, the Yemeni government succeeded in repelling the attacks and foiled several advancement attempts, amid security warnings urging residents to avoid desert roads between Al-Jawf, Marib, and Hadramout governorates.
On another front, security sources in Aden reported uncovering cells cooperating with the Houthis that are recruiting youth from government-controlled areas. Local reports also confirmed the arrival of Houthi military reinforcements to contact zones south of Hodeidah, supported by modern weapons likely supplied through Iranian-backed channels.
These movements, according to UN warnings, reflect the fragile military situation and the unpredictability of its developments. The increasing escalation threatens the collapse of the truce, especially as the Houthis exploit the Gaza war to intensify mobilization efforts, as confirmed by Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in his recent speech.
ANHA
==============================================================
jward
passin' thru
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
3m
Operation Aspides, the European Union’s maritime surveillance and protection mission in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, has announced that all 19 crewmembers onboard the Dutch-flagged cargo ship, M/V Minervagracht, have been rescued, after the ship was reportedly struck on Monday by an anti-ship ballistic missile fired by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
18 of the crew, consisting of Russians, Ukrainians, Filipinos, and Sri Lankans, are onboard vessels under EUNAVFOR Aspides, while one crewmember with serious injuries was transferred to Djibouti. The M/V Minervagracht is now ablaze and adrift in the Gulf of Aden, roughly 128NM to the southeast of Yemen.
@sentdefender
3m
Operation Aspides, the European Union’s maritime surveillance and protection mission in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, has announced that all 19 crewmembers onboard the Dutch-flagged cargo ship, M/V Minervagracht, have been rescued, after the ship was reportedly struck on Monday by an anti-ship ballistic missile fired by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
18 of the crew, consisting of Russians, Ukrainians, Filipinos, and Sri Lankans, are onboard vessels under EUNAVFOR Aspides, while one crewmember with serious injuries was transferred to Djibouti. The M/V Minervagracht is now ablaze and adrift in the Gulf of Aden, roughly 128NM to the southeast of Yemen.