WAR Trump threatens Iran with "dire consequences" if Houthi attacks continue; US bases in ME placed on War Alert

jward

passin' thru
I have to assume, at least for the moment, that the Public square being filled with reports of US-Israeli discord, and DJT cutting off contact with N. is some kind of psych ops or good cop-bad cop theatrics - ::shrug::


Clash Report
@clashreport
1h

US ambassador to Israel on the agreement with the Houthis:
We do not need permission from the Israelis
If an American citizen is injured, we will strike the Houthis otherwise, we have nothing to do with it.
 

jward

passin' thru
Open Source Intel
@Osint613

JUST IN

IRGC Chief warns Israel and the US:

“This is a serious warning to Zionist officials and US officials,”

“Make one wrong move, and we will open the gates of helI on you. Sit down and stay in your place we are fully prepared.”
 

jward

passin' thru
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
7m

Sunday’s nuclear talks are do-or-die.
Envoy Steve Witkoff warns if no progress is made, the talks will end.
Red line: No uranium enrichment. No Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan.
Iran says enrichment is non-negotiable.


Stakes couldn’t be higher.
 

jward

passin' thru
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
4h

FOLKS THIS IS HUGE: Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff, in a significant statement ahead of the round of nuclear talks with Iran on Sunday, said, “We must dismantle the three uranium enrichment facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The uranium enrichment program in Iran can no longer exist. They can't have centrifuges. That's our red line - no enrichment!

We will not accept a bad deal with Iran. We will withdraw if we feel the agreement is not strong. If we think the talks on Sunday will not be productive, we will choose a different path.
 

jward

passin' thru
Intelschizo
@Schizointel
15m

And the bombers have left. Operation Rough Rider is over and all the speculation of the US pulling the trigger destroying Iran's nuclear sites that idea also not happening anymore.
 

jward

passin' thru
Iran International English
@IranIntl_En
20s

“If no agreement is reached today, I can say without a doubt that the American side is to blame,” said Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator.

“There may have been times in the past when I couldn’t say this, but today I say it with complete certainty: our side has entered the talks with the will and authority to make a deal,” Zarif added during a speech at the Tehran Book Fair, shortly after the conclusion of the fourth round of Iran-US negotiations in Oman.

Zarif, the architect of the 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers, said that “if the other side does not want to reach an agreement and instead looks for excuses, the blame lies with them.”
 

jward

passin' thru
nytimes.com


Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia​






The New York Times
  • May 12, 2025
When he approved a campaign to reopen shipping in the Red Sea by bombing the Houthi militant group into submission, President Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago.
By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials.

But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.
The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. And the U.S. strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.

It did not help that two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.
By then, Mr. Trump had had enough.

Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, who was already in Omani-mediated nuclear talks with Iran, reported that Omani officials had suggested what could be a perfect offramp for Mr. Trump on the separate issue of the Houthis, according to American and Arab officials. The United States would halt the bombing campaign and the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
nytimes.com


Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia​






The New York Times
  • May 12, 2025
When he approved a campaign to reopen shipping in the Red Sea by bombing the Houthi militant group into submission, President Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago.
By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials.

But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.
The Houthis shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and continued to fire at naval ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. And the U.S. strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about $1 billion in the first month alone.

It did not help that two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.
By then, Mr. Trump had had enough.

Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, who was already in Omani-mediated nuclear talks with Iran, reported that Omani officials had suggested what could be a perfect offramp for Mr. Trump on the separate issue of the Houthis, according to American and Arab officials. The United States would halt the bombing campaign and the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.


IMHO, the body count needed to remove the Houthi from the board is something Trump doesn't want to partake in both for the rightful fear of innocents being caught in it as well as the political effects of what would be needed. I wouldn't be surprised to learn later that the JAGs have been in the mix as well muddying the water as to what could be hit and when. This is something that isn't really critical to finish with what else is simmering on the stove top and can be revisited as and if needed.
 

jward

passin' thru
:hmm:
Right Angle News Network
@Rightanglenews
4m

BREAKING - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear deal with Trump today if all U.S. sanctions are immediately lifted, with advisors saying Iran is prepared to never build nukes, eliminate uranium stockpiles, limit enrichment to civilian levels, and allow full inspections.
 

jward

passin' thru
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
2m

The Iranians are skilled at deception; they create an illusion of compromise, but this situation is the JCPOA all over again, and I am concerned that Witkoff may fall for it.
View: https://twitter.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1922807503978410091

:hmm:
Right Angle News Network
@Rightanglenews
4m

BREAKING - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear deal with Trump today if all U.S. sanctions are immediately lifted, with advisors saying Iran is prepared to never build nukes, eliminate uranium stockpiles, limit enrichment to civilian levels, and allow full inspections.
 

jward

passin' thru
Mark Dubowitz
@mdubowitz

What they're saying: "President Trump's got serious negotiating leverage," Mark Dubowitz, an Iranian expert and CEO of the @FDD, told @axios

“I think Congress is saying you've got massive leverage, don't throw it away the way Obama did by conceding on enrichment and giving Iran exactly what they need to develop nuclear weapons," he added.

7:33 PM · May 14, 2025
52
Views


axios.com
Inside Tom Cotton's pressure campaign on an Iran nuclear deal



Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Sen. Tom Cotton is trying to build a public pressure campaign to encourage the Trump White House to hold the line on an Iran nuclear deal.

Why it matters: Key players hope President Trump's desire for a deal doesn't end with too much compromise. Cotton (R-Ark.) has influence in Trump circles but represents a hawkish brand of Republican going out of style in the MAGA movement.

Zoom in: Cotton urged senators in a closed-door lunch on Tuesday to join him in publicly applauding top officials who demand zero uranium enrichment to give the U.S. maximum leverage in negotiations.

His team followed up the plea with an email to communications staff, saying they would use the conference platform to amplify any such posts.
Sens. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) and others backed Cotton up in the lunch, stressing the importance of zero enrichment, according to attendees.
Cotton has spoken directly with the White House's chief negotiator Steve Witkoff, a source close to the senator tells Axios, and used his super PAC and 501(c)(4) to poll the Iran nuclear issue.

Driving the news: 52 GOP senators — including Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) —signed a letter sent to the White House on Wednesday warning that the "scope and breadth of Iran's nuclear buildout have made it impossible to verify any new deal that allows Iran to continue enriching uranium."

"If Iran's leadership rejects the olive branch and continues to attack their neighbors, then we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure," Trump said on Tuesday.

Zoom out: Cotton and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said at a press conference last week that ideally any Iranian deal would be voted on as a treaty, requiring a two-thirds vote in the Senate.

The two senators, joined by Britt, have introduced a resolution outlining what an Iranian deal should look like, including zero enrichment.

What they're saying: "President Trump's got serious negotiating leverage," Mark Dubowitz, an Iranian expert and CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Axios.

"I think Congress is saying you've got massive leverage, don't throw it away the way [former President] Obama did by conceding on enrichment and giving Iran exactly what they need to develop nuclear weapons," he added.

Go deeper
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
You cannot win a war if you don't kill people.
The muslims certainly know this fact.
You cannot "make a deal" with liars.

IMHO the more accurate way of putting it would be you can only win a war by killing the "appropriate" people required to influence the rest to stop fighting.

As to dealing with liars, and on the world stage that means to one degree or another everyone, the consequences to breaching the deal have to be expensive enough to keep it from happening.
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
IMHO the more accurate way of putting it would be you can only win a war by killing 'enough of the "appropriate"' people required to influence the rest to stop fighting
Fixed it for ya.
As to dealing with liars, and on the world stage that means to one degree or another everyone, the consequences to breaching the deal have to be expensive enough to keep it from happening.
And OH BOY is this a tough call to make, PARTICULARLY with the "issues" bubbling under in Iran.

In this case, I lean towards a Maul rather than a sledge. Has a bigger head.
 

jward

passin' thru
Al Mayadeen English
@MayadeenEnglish
5h

The Trump administration has stepped up its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, sanctioning over 20 companies, mostly based in Hong Kong, accused of funneling billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian crude to China as front entities for Sepehr Energy, a commercial arm of #Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff.

Firms such as Xin Rui Ji, Star Energy, and Milen Trading allegedly broker shipments to #China’s “teapot” refineries, while CCIC Singapore is accused of covering up the oil’s Iranian origin through ship‑to‑ship transfers and falsified documentation.

On Tuesday, at a US–Saudi investment conference, President #Trump offered Tehran an "olive branch," expressing his desire for “a new and better path towards a much more hopeful future.”

He also warned that if Iran rebuffs the offer, the #US would "have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure” to "drive Iranian oil exports to zero."
 

jward

passin' thru
First Source Report
@FirstSourceNew
6h

Iranian Foreign Minister:

The Iranian delegation has not received any written proposal from US envoy Witkoff.

We constantly hear contradictory positions from US officials.
 

jward

passin' thru
twz.com

F-15s Deploy To Diego Garcia To Protect The Island Base That’s Hosting B-52s​





The TWZ Newsletter​


Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

The U.S. Air Force has sent a contingent of at least four F-15 fighters to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to help provide force protection for the island and the assets currently deployed there, which includes B-52H bombers. TWZ explicitly raised this possibility in April in a piece touching on evolving threats to the highly strategic Indian Ocean outpost and the vulnerabilities they highlight.
“The F-15s are deployed providing force protection,” an official with U.S. INDOPACOM confirmed to The War Zone. We had some follow up questions and will update this story with any new pertinent details provided.
TWZ first noted the F-15s in a satellite image of Diego Garcia taken on May 16, 2025, from Planet Labs archive. Whether these are F-15C/D Eagles, which the U.S. Air Force is steadily retiring, or F-15E Strike Eagles isn’t perfectly clear, although they appear to most likely be E models based on their paint tone. Four B-52H bombers, five KC-135 tankers, a C-17 cargo plane, and a white-colored airliner with orange nacelles — most likely an SAS airlines personnel transport flight — is also viewable in the image. A review of additional satellite imagery from Planet Labs indicates the F-15s have been there since at least May 14.

Diego Garcia has long been a highly strategic operating location for the U.S. military. Beyond its large airfield that sits in the center of the Indian Ocean, it plays many roles for the Department of Defense, including hosting Space Force operations, serving as a key port for U.S. Navy vessels, including nuclear submarines, and its lagoon provides shelter for a Sealift Command Prepositioning Ship Squadron.
Navy Diver 2nd Class Jaden Johns, right, and Navy Diver 2nd Class Gabriel Gaona, both assigned to submarine tender USS Emory S. Land (AS 39) exit the water after an Anti-terrorism Force Protection Security Swim during the Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS West Virginia (SSBN-736) port visit at U.S. Navy Support Facility (NSF) Diego Garcia. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jan David De Luna Mercado) Petty Officer 2nd Class Jan David Mercado

The island outpost drew particular attention recently after an unusually large force of six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers began arriving in March in a clear show of force aimed primarily at Iran. The B-2s subsequently conducted strikes on Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
The four B-52s now on Diego Garcia began arriving last week. For a very brief period, there were 10 U.S. bombers on the island, but the B-2s quickly began departing for home. Online flight tracking data indicates that the last B-2s left the island on or around May 9th.
10 US Air Force strategic bombers are at Diego Garcia as of today.
Yet to be seen is whether the B-2s will return to the States or stay for a while longer. https://t.co/vVNqnfRqm2
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) May 8, 2025
A satellite image from 9 May with 3x B-2 and 4x B-52 bombers in Diego Garcia. Source: MizarVision, a Chinese commercial satellite imagery company. Media reports and open-source flight data and air traffic control monitoring indicate that the B-2 bombers are leaving Diego Garcia. pic.twitter.com/KGa3I2CBXz
— Shahryar Pasandideh (@shahpas) May 11, 2025
Historically, Diego Garcia’s remoteness has been seen as a natural barrier to attack by non-near-peer potential adversaries like Iran. However, the threat ecosystem has steadily changed in recent years, as TWZ has previously noted in a story about the island’s potential vulnerabilities in April:
“At the same time, ever-growing threats emanate from Iran, as well as its regional proxies, that are no longer just defined by range rings around the Middle East. Iran has notably commissioned multiple sea base-like vessels that can be used to launch potentially large numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range kamikaze drones, all from hundreds of miles away, in recent years. The Iranians have also demonstrated missile and drone capabilities, including launchers in standard shipping containers, which could be employed from commercial cargo and other civilian ships. Iran already has a history of using converted cargo vessels as motherships for intelligence gathering and covert attacks. There is also the potential for Iranian operatives or proxies to infiltrate an area to launch more localized campaigns, including using smaller and shorter-ranged weaponized drones.”

As noted, in that same story, we had also explicitly raised the question of whether a fighter contingent might appear on the island to provide force protection in light of those threats. Deploying to enhance security for a high-profile VIP visit is another possibility, although we have no indication that is the case at this time.
Regardless, F-15s would be an ideal platform for this force protection role. U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles very pointedly demonstrated their ability to contribute to a layered defense against complex cruise missile and drone attacks while helping to defend Israel from threats launched by Iran last year. They are arguably the most experienced fighter community in the USAF for dealing with a high-volume drone and cruise missile threat. This is beyond the fact that the F-15E force is taking on a bigger counter-air role as the F-15C’s inventory continues to dwindle. The Strike Eagles could also use their high endurance, large payload, and very capable sensor suite to detect and neutralize surface threats and provide non-traditional reconnaissance in the region surrounding the archipelago.
A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle flies a combat air patrol over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, April 11, 2025. The F-15E Strike Eagle provides the capability to deter and, if necessary, target violent extremist organizations within the AOR. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Keegan Putman) Senior Airman Keegan Putman

It’s also possible that these aircraft are indeed F-15Cs, which are also very well suited for the counter drone and cruise missile mission set. They bring some capabilities the F-15E doesn’t have, including an infrared search and track (IRST) system. On the other hand, they would not be able to provide the air-to-surface capabilities that an F-15E contingent could. They could still provide limited reconnaissance support with the help of the Sniper targeting pods, though.
While we do not know the intelligence or mission demand that triggered this relatively unprecedented force protection deployment to the island, if the potential threat picture at Diego Garcia is significant enough to warrant a fighter contingent, it highlights broader issues facing the Air Force and the rest of the U.S. military. Sending the six B-2s to Diego Garcia had added to an already heated debate about whether the U.S. military should be investing more in hardened aircraft shelters and other fortified infrastructure at key facilities globally. There are particular concerns about the vulnerability of airbases across the Indo-Pacific region during a potential future high-end fight with China. The airfield on Diego Garcia currently has just four specially designed B-2 shelters, which are not hardened.

A USAF image from the 2000s showing bomber operations from Diego Garcia during the height of the U.S. military’s operational focus on the war in Afghanistan and the Global War On Terror. (USAF via Getty Images) Pictures from History
At Diego Garcia, “we have multi-layered defense systems to ensure the security and protection of our personnel and equipment,” a spokesperson for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) had told TWZ in April.
How long the U.S. military will continue to have a bolstered airpower presence at Diego Garcia, which now includes the F-15 detachment, remains to be seen. American authorities agreed to a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthis, brokered by the Omani government, last week.

The United States and Iran are also currently engaged in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled in the past that military action against Iranian nuclear sites, which could be carried out in part by bombers flying from Diego Garcia, could be on the table if those talks fail. This would heighten the need for force protection assets at Diego Garcia, as well as other U.S. facilities across the Middle East.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com


 

jward

passin' thru
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
7m
Another cheap stunt by a regime with a very weak hand.


Iran International English
@IranIntl_En

#BREAKING Iran has "not accepted" Oman's invitation for a fifth round of talks with the US due to take place in Rome this Friday, @TheNationalNews reported citing an Iranian official, as the US officials' insistence on 'zero enrichment' has left officials in Iran uncertain about the usefulness of more talks.
Iran "does not want to have another round of talks and them to fail", the official was quoted as saying. "With zero enrichment, we don't have a deal."
 

jward

passin' thru
Derrick Evans
@DerrickEvans4WV
3h

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff on Iran: "President Trump has been very clear: He wants to solve this conflict diplomatically and with dialogue. He's given all of the signals, he's directly sent letters to the Supreme Leader... we have one very, very clear red line — and that is enrichment. We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability. We've delivered a proposal to the Iranians that we think addresses some of this..."
rt 1,22s
View: https://twitter.com/DerrickEvans4WV/status/1924536533224456632
 

jward

passin' thru
fdd.org

‘Enrichment Enables Weaponization’: Witkoff Emphasizes Zero Enrichment for Iran​



Latest Developments

  • Iran Cannot Have Nuclear Enrichment: The United States drew a “very clear red line” that it will not allow Iran to enrich uranium domestically under a new nuclear agreement, said White House Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff on May 18. “We cannot allow even 1 percent of an enrichment capability,” Witkoff stated, emphasizing that “enrichment enables weaponization” of a nuclear bomb. Negotiators from the United States and Iran are expected to meet for a fifth round of indirect nuclear negotiations in Rome this weekend, although neither party has confirmed the date.
  • Tehran Says Enrichment Cannot Be Stopped: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected Witkoff’s statements as “unrealistic,” adding, “enrichment in Iran is not something that can be stopped.” On May 14, Ali Shamkhani, a top Iranian advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran was willing to commit to a deal that eliminates its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium but allows Tehran to continue enriching to the lower levels required for civilian nuclear energy.
  • ‘Move Quickly’ on American Proposal: President Donald Trump said on May 16 that Washington had sent Iran a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal. Iran should “move quickly, or something bad is going to happen,” Trump said. Araghchi denied that Tehran had received a written proposal. Iran is currently enriching uranium to a 60 percent purity level, which has no civilian purpose and accounts for 99 percent of the effort needed to produce weapons-grade material.

FDD Expert Response

“Ambassador Witkoff has made clear that the administration’s policy is no enrichment for Iran, riding a wave of support from more than 200 members of Congress who demanded the same last week. Iran must peacefully dismantle its atomic weapons program. It can retain civil nuclear benefits that 23 other countries have without domestic enrichment or reprocessing, ensuring that the means of making fuel for nuclear weapons doesn’t spread.” Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow
“The White House position that zero enrichment will be the standard for any deal with Iran kills two birds with one stone. The policy will shut the door on arguments that Iran is entitled to domestic enrichment even while it is in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It will also put an end to proposals for a regional nuclear consortium to provide nuclear material. A zero-enrichment standard will force other regional nuclear aspirants to adhere to a bilateral civilian power agreement with the United States, which reduces the chance of nuclear material being diverted for malign purposes.” — Tyler Stapleton, Director of Congressional Relations, FDD Action

FDD Background and Analysis

Iran’s Nuclear Disarmament: The Only Deal That Protects U.S. and Allied Security,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu
‘For Us, Martyrdom is Far Sweeter’: Pezeshkian Says Iran Will Not Be ‘Bullied’ Into Nuclear Deal With U.S.,” FDD Flash Brief
Congressional Republicans Back Full Dismantlement of Iranian Nuclear Program in Letters to Trump,” FDD Flash Brief
Any Iranian Enrichment Gives Tehran a Path to Nuclear Weapons,” by Andrea Stricker



Subscribe to FDD Flash Briefs
 

jward

passin' thru

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
2h

Here is a full write-up of our analysis by @sam_lair
.

armscontrolwonk.com
Iran’s (Not So) Integrated Air Defenses at Natanz
Sam Lair
7–9 minutes

Jeffrey and I recently had a story with Aaron Mehta in Breaking Defense on Iran’s air defenses around Natanz:

Aaron Mehta, “Iran’s air defenses around nuclear site more ‘brittle’ than expected: Exclusive analysis,” Breaking Defense, May 15, 2025, Iran's air defenses around nuclear site more 'brittle' than expected: Exclusive analysis - Breaking Defense

Since this might have provoked the IRGC to release this video insisting their air defense radars work very well indeed, we decided to put up the full write up of our analysis.

Did Iran show us an air defense command center around the Natanz enrichment site?

If Israel or the United States were to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, one of the primary targets would be the large underground enrichment facilities near Natanz. And the first stage of any strike would be targeting the air defenses stations around Natanz.

Israel has, in the past, targeted air defense sites in Iran to demonstrate that it has the ability to conduct larger attacks. As part of the cycle of tit-for-tat violence in April 2024, Israel targeted an air defense site located near a facility outside Natanz where Iran had manufactured drones that were involved in an early attack.

Now, for the anniversary of the attack, Iran has released new footage showing a large number of drones and missiles being launched in the April strike. (See this post for a higher resolution version of parts of the video)

The video contains a short – 1.8 second – clip of an air defense command center.

Inside the command center, there are three screens showing the locations of four radars.

One of the screens shows two radar locations. The screen also shows the “coverage fan” of one of the radars. It is possible to use the terrain visible on the map to locate the two radars to air defense sites near Natanz. The screen also shows one of the radars’s “coverage fan.” Based on the size of the fan, the radar appears to have a range of about 120 km, which is consistent with the tracking range of the Iranian Najm 804 radar.

The Najm 804 radar is often deployed as part of the Khordad-15 air defense system which has been reported to use the Sayyad-3 SAM. However, during the announcement of the Khordad-15, it was shown along with both Sayyad-3 and Sayyad-2 SAMs, suggesting it is capable of using both interceptors.

Satellite images show a Najm 804 radar at an air defense site to the south of Natanz Nuclear Facility, along with the rest of a Khordad-15 battery. The battery and radar were present in April 2024, suggesting it is the white square with the radar fan seen on the screen in the video.

The other site may be a Tor SAM battery located just to the west of Natanz, but since there is no associated radar fan, it is more difficult to be sure. However, satellite imagery shows there were Tor launchers operational in early April, near the time of filming.

The two other screens are more interesting. The location of those radars can be identified by comparing the polygons on the screen with a map of Iran’s air traffic zones.

Each screen shows one radar. One is located north of Kashan (34.204909°, 51.430194°) , the other to the east of Natanz Nuclear Facility (33.757269°, 51.826422°).

We geolocated the radars by identifying where they were in relation to defined zones that appeared both on the radar screen and in the map of air traffic zones. The air traffic zone map provided rough coordinates to search, which then yielded Iranian early warning radars.

Based on satellite imagery, they appear to be similar to Spoon Rest radars from the Soviet Union. Measuring the range circle on the display, it appears the range of the radar is approximately 200-210 km. This suggests the radar is derived from the P-12 Spoon Rest A, which has a 200 km range, rather than the longer range P-18 Spoon Rest D.

The Iranians held an exercise in January and February 2025 called Great Prophet 19, which included air defense exercises near Natanz and other nuclear facilities. A video released by Iranian PressTV of the exercise showed a Spoon Rest-derived radar, geolocated to the site east of Natanz. More precisely, the radar appeared to be a Matla-ul-fajr-3. However, the reported range for that system is 500 km. This discrepancy from the ranges displayed on the air traffic zone screens might suggest those radars are more limited than the Iranians claim. The Khordad-15 battery was not shown in the video from Great Prophet 19, though some reporting indicated the system participated in the exercise.

Interestingly, the S-300 radars struck by the Israelis in retaliation for the April missile attack which are also part of the layered air defense system for Natanz are not depicted in this command center.

This absence, along with the separation between the three different radar displays in the command center, suggest that if there is some networking of air defense radars in Iran, it is somewhat limited. The lack of fusion in the data may reflect the age and varied origin of the hardware involved, it may also reflect the more fragmented nature of Iranian air defenses.

Nevertheless, this short section of video has provided fascinating insight into the air defenses at one of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities.

However, even if the air defense network defending Natanz is more brittle than previously thought, what does that mean? As the Israelis demonstrated in their strike on the Isfahan S-400 battery in April, Iranian air defenses are vulnerable to attacks by Israel and the U.S. Even if the U.S. or Israel were to destroy the air defenses surrounding Natanz, what would follow? Air strikes on the buried enrichment halls at the site would be a likely next step, but the Iranians have taken recent steps to undermine the effectiveness of such attacks. Excavations for an underground expansion to Natanz have been underway for years, deep enough under nearby mountains to likely render it safe from conventional U.S. bunker buster munitions and harder to destroy than the existing underground Fordow uranium enrichment plant. The Iranians say the underground facility is for centrifuge manufacture, but it is also possible the space could also be filled with additional cascades of centrifuges.

This again begs the question of what the next steps would be after destroying air defenses? Israeli President Netanyahu reportedly floated commando raids on Iranian underground nuclear sites to President Trump, who shot down the idea. However, such a boots-on-the-ground escalation, or a prolonged campaign of air strikes to seal the underground facility and prevent it from being reopened, would be necessary to destroy Natanz at this point. Ultimately, despite the less sophisticated nature of Iranian air defenses in the area, Natanz may still be relatively secure, by virtue of its deeply buried facilities and location deep in Iranian territory.
 

jward

passin' thru
:hmm:
Iran International English
@IranIntl_En
5h

"If the US attacks Iran, we won’t just target Washington — all its interests, bases, airspaces, seas, and territories used to launch an attack on us will be considered legitimate targets," said Islamic Republic insider Javad Larijani, a former top advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader.

He added, “Right now, the US says don’t enrich uranium. A bit later, they’ll say don’t even learn physics or math.”
“From their perspective, we probably shouldn’t work in the field of science at all — we should focus on music, dance, and singing instead.”
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
OSINTdefender

@sentdefender
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7h


The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was spotted today on satellite imagery sailing west through the Ionian Sea in the Eastern Mediterranean, on the way back to the United States after the completion of Operation Rough Rider, the strike campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, during an over 8-month deployment to the U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) Area-of-Responsibility.
 
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