WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________

Amazing and Deadly Hubris
Greetings Me Droogs N Droogettes!
Beware those who would Rest on their Laurels… and man, our current pretenders sure are banking on our ‘supposed’ victories to keep the wheels on this lash-up. The origins of that phrase lies in ancient Greece, where laurel wreaths were symbols of victory and status. Resting on them was a sure sign of decline. Rome wasn’t built in a day, but man, when it started to decline, it was like a greased ball bearing going down an 80 degree incline.

We, unfortunately/fortunately are in the same exact position.
It’s actually funny. With all due respect to my Brothers and Sisters in the Armed Forces, we really ain’t won a war since Gulf One when we beat Saddam’s Army like a rented mule. Before that? World War Two. The entire issue is the “wars” we’ve been in have been near-continually subverted for political means over the past 20 years… maybe even longer. It’s not about the win anymore.. In fact I wonder if even since the Korean War it was about the “Big Win”. Pretty much every. single. action. of international intervention we’ve participated in since the early 60’s (Nam) was predicated on financial gainzz for the corporate overlords and their political puppets.

Major General Smedley Butler had this to say:

View attachment 260067


Butler was a two time winner of the Medal of Honor. Guy was purely balls-out the perfect Marine. That being said, in 1933, a group of Industrialists tried to get Butler to overthrow Roosevelt as they felt that he’s gone full Socialist/Communist. Instead he blew the whistle. Now, interestingly one of the Industrialists was a Bush… as in THE Bush family. And man, barely a mention of it in the historical record… revisionist history much?
Especially since they, the Ministry of Propaganda back then even went out of the way to discredit any and all talk about the “Industrialists Plot” as it was known as. Like buried it. Much like the TRUE Russian story, that Obama and his coterie of Red Diaper Corruptocrats tried to **** over Trump (and did) and are still causing issues to this day.

We’ve been resting on our Laurels for far too long.

For some reason, the Current Crop of Oligarchic Corruptocrats appear to have (unfortunately) bought into their own ‘press releases’ … meaning all that fawning and knob-slobbering the Ministry of Propaganda did all over Obama’s crew for their “Stunning” and “Brave” and “Highly Intelligent” handling of all domestic and foreign policy as if they were all Metternich(es)… when in reality, they bolluxed up the whole ****ing planet. Case(s) are far too numerous to list. Not here. Maybe future generations will look back and be able to analyse just what the **** went wrong and where we went sideways, but hey, it’s obvious that we had just started to recover from all the damage that the Self Declare d”Cool Kids” had wrought, and now?

In Ebonics: We’z be fukked.

Because the Russians are rolling in at least two heavy Divisions. Tanks AND artillery. Massing on the zone between the Ukraine and Crimea with an attitude of “Come at me bro!!!” which is not going to end well. Consider also that we, the Untied States of ‘Murica are sitting back and actively encouraging this stupidity. The Ukrainians, despite how hardcore crazy they are, and I know from first hand experience in Iraq in dealings with them, they’re gonna get curb-stomped by Vlad’s boys if they start to tussle. The Ukrainians I knew and partied with in Iraq were some outrageously crazy bastards. First time they showed up, with the exception of some BMPs and BTRs, they didn’t have too much as far as Armored Troop Carriers… now I know that the BMP and BTR ARE troop carriers, but the brass didn’t want IFVs rolling heavy into Baghdad. And back then Up Armored HMMWVs were few and far between, to the point that “Confederate Uparmor” was the rule of the day. “Confederate Uparmor” referred to the fact that armor back then was special steel sheeting, rough cut to be bolted onto a Regular M998 HMMVW, and with the giant assed bolts and whatnot, they started looking like Ironclads from the Civil War.

So the Ukes got old Deuce and a Halfs, that they half-assed Uparmored theyselves, and went hunting. Problem was, and I got this straight from a Gate Guard at an outer checkpoint when they came back in, they had bagged a couple of Bad Guys… real life AQI Muj… and done kil’t ’em dead like Raid. The issue was they brought back trophies… When they came back, there were 3 ‘bundles’… bloody bundles tied to the Brush Guard over the marker lights of the Deuce. Specifically the Marker Light Frames on the front bumpers.
View attachment 260068



Tied to these were 2 on one side, one on the other. The cloth were bloody keffiyeh, or shemags as we call them in the West, leastways the surplus kids sell ’em as such. Whelp, the Ukes came in pleased as all git oot about having a ‘good killing’ and the Captain (O-3) came out to do a quickie debrief, and asked “what was in the bags?”
The Uke apparently said something along the lines of “Proof of kill.”The Captain, now cautious as all hell, went over and looked closely, and realized the Ukrainians had cut the heads off the Haj and brought them back as proof of their Daring Do and Deeds.
Needless to say, everyone ****ing wigged.

Ensue mass hilarity to the tune of “Yakkity Sax” as the Captain ’rounded up a full patrol’ to include a medic with a LOT of medical staples and rolled like madmen back to the shootout, where they unassed the trucks, grabbed the stiffs that were left behind, laoded back up (all in hostile territory) and ran back to the base, all the while with “Doc” stapling the heads back onto the (hopefully) correct carcasses.

But this’s sort of to give you (outside of High Comedic value) the fact that the Ukes don’t play themselves. They’re hardcore everloving Bastards in Combat. And them AGAINST the Russians?

Hoo Boy… THAT’ll be some killer combat footage.

And all the while, this’s being done and prodded into reality by the State Department Diplo-Dunk Assholes who’ve never humped a rifle or ever been even punched in the Face. Like that traitorous Light Birdturd Colonel Vindman and his brother. NEVER actually been in danger, and sure as ****, judging by those pasty dough-boy faces, (that I personally would love to beat on) they’ve never had their asses properly kicked in the entirety of their worthless paste-eating lives.

And all the time, the “Master Manipulators” seem to think they can “control” the “dynamic” utilizing “Defenestration and synergy to alleviate potential threat vectors” politically. In other words, They’re thinking that they can blow off Putin again, utilizing the threat of further sanctions, and that he’ll back down like a good little Rooskie.
Got a hunch that ain’t how it’s gonna play in Peoria this time man. Got a hunch Vlad smells weakness, wokeness and blood. “Go Woke, Go Broke” and the current crop of ree-rees in the White House and the Politically Appointed Perfumed Princes and Ponces on the Potomac are NOT living in the same reality that the rest of us are.
They’re fittin’ to start some shit that the rest of us are gonna have to pay the bill on. Hubris is a bad thing. In Greek tragedy, excessive pride toward or defiance of the gods, or in this case absolute reality, will lead to Nemesis.

And in Ancient Greek In ancient Greek mythology, Nemesis, also called Rhamnousia or Rhamnusia (Ancient Greek: Ῥαμνουσία; “the goddess of Rhamnous”), is the goddess who enacts retribution against those who succumb to hubris, arrogance before the gods.
At the rate these people are going, I got a feeling they’re inviting a whole lot of retribution down on us.

Brace yourselves, we’re in for a bit of Turbulence ahead methinks.
More Later I Remain The Intrepid Reporter
Big Country

That was a well written and interesting read.
 

Slydersan

Veteran Member
Can someone educated me? I'm trying to understand how a ship moves from the Caspian to Black Sea.

That made me scratch my head too. From the picture they appear to be landing craft of some sort. Think of all the scenes you've seen of D-Day landings. So that means they are probably able to put them on a big flat-bed semi trailer and haul them from the Caspian to the Black sea. I think they are probably flat bottomed too, which would make it easier. But that's just my quick stab at it. They are definitely NOT talking about big things like cruisers and destroyers. I don't think the Russians ever had anything bigger than say a Coast Guard cutter-sized boat in the Caspian.

Just saw NW's post - didn't know that. So disregard anything I just said. LOL
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

8m


Update: Kiev decided to additionally transfer another tank battalion to the Donbass to strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in this region.
42 armored vehicles, including infantry fighting vehicles, armored vehicles from personal transportation. , tanks, etc. .
 

jward

passin' thru
CIT (en)
@CITeam_e

Apr 7

Getting confused with this endless stream of Russian convoy videos? No worries — so were we, until we wrote this review of recent troops movements towards the Russian-Ukrainian border for our friends at
@InsiderEng
:



«There has not been such a concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine since 2015» — Conflict Intelligence Team

Russia continues to pull its troops towards Ukraine’s borders and in both countries there is talk of the possibility of a new war. At the request of The Insider, experts from the Conflict Intelligence Team have analysed open sources, evaluated the scale of the forces involved, showed what kind of troops have appeared at the border and why these preparations cannot be explained by “exercises”.
Starting in late March this year, Russian social media has been full of videos allegedly showing Russian military convoys and trains carrying trucks and combat vehicles. Many posters claimed they were moving towards the Russian-controlled Crimean Peninsula or towards the Russia-Ukraine border. One of the most viral videos showed a trainload of Msta-S self-propelled howitzers on the newly constructed bridge between Russia and Crimea.


During the past few days, we at Conflict Intelligence Team, as well as other researchers, have been closely studying these videos. We have conclusively determined that Russia is moving a variety of units, including motorized, artillery, paratrooper and, most likely, tank units towards Ukraine. Two known destinations are Crimea and the environs of Voronezh, a city some 170 km (105 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

To confirm this, we used a Russian publicly available railcar tracking database (gdevagon), which allows us to track the routes of railcars and flatbeds by their unique ID numbers. As the videos show, these numbers are often written on the carriages themselves.
Among the units being transferred, some are known to have fought inside Ukraine, such as the elite 76th Guards Air Assault division, which lost troops while fighting the Ukrainian forces in the country's eastern regions back in 2014.

The tanks of the 74th Motorized brigade, T-72B3 previously seen fighting in Ukraine, are also moving towards the border.



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Videos on social media show artillery and motorized riflemen from Yurga in Siberia transferred towards Ukraine.



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The Russian military has tried to explain away the vehicle transfer with exercises in the Southern military district (which also covers Crimea). However Michael Kofman, for example, a senior researcher at US-based CNA, does not buy this explanation, given that, firstly, the exercises were announced only after the media had reported the troops transfers, and secondly, they do not explain the vast geography of the transfers (we have seen units being shuffled from across Russia, including the North, the Caucasus, Siberia and possibly the Far Eastern Pacific coast). This also applies to the «snap check» just announced by Russia's Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu.


Such a mass troop transfer could be explained by a strategic (as opposed to a local) exercise, but such maneuvers aren't due until Zapad-2021, set to take place this September. While mass exercises in Western Russia and allied Belarus take place every year, such a troop concentration near Ukraine is unprecedented since 2014—2015, when Russian regulars operated in Crimea and Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

Some pro-Kremlin sources have claimed that the Russian buildup is happening in response to a Ukrainian troop transfer towards Crimea and Donbas, but this assertion does not stand up to criticism. Firstly, Ukrainian military intelligence made its first claims about a Russian buildup back in early March — at the same time, the first evidence of Ukrainian military transfers started to appear on social media. It should be noted, that the earliest videos of recent Russian troop transfers to Crimea (that we are aware of) appeared as early as February. Secondly, the Russian deployment known to us suggests an offensive rather than defensive posture — for example, Voronezh region does not border the Russia-backed separatist statelets in Donbas. The other side of the border near Voronezh is controlled by Kyiv, and a Ukrainian offensive into Russia itself would be inconceivable.


The currently available social media data is not enough to give a definitive assessment of the numbers of the Russian troops moved towards Ukraine (in addition to those permanently based in border areas). In late March, the Ukrainian military assessed that at least 28 battalion tactical groups (around 20,000 servicemen) were present at the border, while the New York Times cited US military sources as saying that Russia might have moved up to 4,000 troops to the border. We believe that we will soon know the final staging grounds of the Russian vehicles (after unloading, they are transported on military low-loader trucks towards the border). After that, a more credible assessment will be possible via satellite imagery. However, even now it is obvious that such a concentration of troops has never been seen since the “hot phase” of the war in Ukraine ended in early 2015.

As it stands now, we have not seen any obvious signs of an imminent invasion (such as Russian convoys next to the border itself, like one seen by British reporter Shaun Walker in August 2014). The currently available data would allow us to agree with various pundits who have stated that the troops are being transferred to intimidate the Ukrainian government (which has recently taken bold steps against Ukrainian politicians and groups seen as Russia's “agents of influence”), and also to “test the resolve” of the new administration in Washington.

However, it is important to note that the Russian troop concentration is a continuing process. Almost daily, we receive information about new units and destinations. Thus, both our quantitative and qualitative assessment could change in the nearest future under pressure of new evidence. Nonetheless, we will continue to closely monitor developments.
 

jward

passin' thru




The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab

2m


As the timeline advances, attention should shift from 'hardware on trains' to covert FOBs, diplomatic activity, and strategic posturing from Moscow. The pieces are in essentially in place. Sources suggest this is a prolonged, months long deployment along the border.
 

jward

passin' thru
So now we need to know
Are 400 vehicles a battalion (no, too many””) a Brigade or what
@Osinttechnical


Big takeaways from this massive new forward camp bordering Ukraine. 1) that's a lot of artillery, both self propelled and towed. 2) It seems that troops are permanently lodging there. 3) based on the size, they intend to grow it even more.

What appears to be barracks
2S19 Mstas
152mm towed artillery
Overall, a lot of APCs. That and the barracks makes me think the Russians intend to house a number of mechanized infantry formations there.
What looks like some TOS-1s (thermobaric MLRS)
Long row of 2S19s
Pantsirs? Not entirely sure though.
Heavy construction activity
I have a sneaking suspicion that this is a SAM battery
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Russia ready for landing: It transports the Caspian Fleet to the Black Sea - "Knife on the side" of Ukraine - Unprecedented operation
Alarm in the Ukrainian Navy and the West - See satellite Photos


Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 8 2021

In an unprecedented move that has already alarmed the West-EU-Ukraine and NATO, Russia has moved the Caspian Fleet to the Black Sea, namely the "sides" of Ukraine, to the Azov Sea!

In total, Moscow carries 10 ships from the Caspian Fleet to the Black Sea Fleet.

The transfer will take place through a series of channels from the Volga and Don rivers to the Sea of Azov as shown in the map below. This is a strategic move as few know that Moscow can transport the Fleet from the enclosed Caspian Sea.

With this move Moscow shows that the goal is not to allow any NATO ships to get involved.

It opens two maritime fronts in Ukraine, one in the Azov Sea and one in the wider Black Sea on the Odessa side.


Russia's move a "very bad sign"

International analysts describe Russia's move as a "very bad sign" as Moscow carries a total of 10 ships out of its 15 in the Caspian Fleet!

1. 3 Class 21631 corvettes ("Buyan-M") capable of launching Kalibr 2 cruise missiles.
3 Class 21630 missiles ("Buyan");
3. 3 class 1204 patrol cars (Shmel);
4. 6 class 11770 ("Serna").

Russia's goal is clear: Landing in Mariupol, Berdyansk, Odessa, Herson.

Russia's announcement
"As part of the training and inspection of forces of the Southern Military Region, more than 10 Ships of the Caspian Fleet, patrol cars, landing boats and corvettes will proceed to an intra-transition from the Caspian Fleet to the Black Sea Fleet

In the Black Sea they will take part in exercises

By order of the Commander of South-Eastern Russia, Alexander Dvornikov, units of the Marines and forces of the Black Sea Fleet as well as the Caspian Fleet will proceed with exercises to repel naval and airborne forces."


The alarm was raised and the... Fleet of Ukraine

As soon as the Russian move was made public, it sounded an alarm to the Ukrainian Navy.

They started exercises with what's left of the Ukrainian Fleet.

In the six major Black Sea ports, namely Kherson, Olvia, Chornomorsk, Odessa, Pivdenny, Nikolaev, exercises are conducted by the Ukrainian Navy and other vessels are prohibited from crossing.

Satellite photos show large concentration of Russian forces

Satellite photos show 623 Russian tanks, tanks, TOB artillery units, TOMA in the Voronezh region on the border with Ukraine with 423 located in the first main concentration area and the remaining 200 in a second area.

At the same time, it became known that Russia is building an electronic warfare base 180 km northeast of Ukraine.


map-caspian.jpg


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Strengthens forces and Kiev – Zelenski in Donbass

Kiev has decided to send another battalion of tanks to Donbass to bolster Ukrainian forces. 42 tanks, artillery, TOB, TOMA, tanks were transported today.

At the same time ukraine's president, Vladimir Zelensky, went to the front line of fire in Donbass to inspect Ukrainian forces.

Together with Andrei Yermak, he visited the areas of violation of the ceasefire and spoke with the military.

ΕΚΤΑΚΤΟ – Η Ρωσία έτοιμη για απόβαση: Mεταφέρει τον Στόλο Κασπίας στην Μαύρη Θάλασσα – “Mαχαιριά στα πλευρά” της Ουκρανίας – Πρωτοφανής επιχείρηση (βίντεο) - WarNews247
 
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night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
What we are watching is the same "Cold Start" (~~snerfle~~) we saw in Desert Storm with all the preps happening in the open and the "GO" being not so much a surprise but an organic occasion.

This is not QUITE a Cold Start ANYTHING right now. WHEN the invasion occurs it won't be any kind of shock.
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

4m


Update: Ambassador of Ukraine urged Merkel to send Putin a harsh warning about the consequences for the build-up of the military presence of the Russian Federation near the borders of Ukraine.
Update: Estonia continues to fully support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine - MFA of Ukraine
Update: Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Poland agreed to consolidate international support for Kiev against the backdrop of escalating Russian aggression.
 

okie-carbine

Veteran Member
It's funny how this is playing out. I mean, not the sense of war, but the way Russia is doing it. Putin is a master. He is bringing his entire army (and now Navy) to the border of Ukraine. But the way he does it, oh nothing to see here, we are only doing "exercises" we aren't bothering anybody. Almost childish, the way two 10 year old siblings would fight.

And once everything is in place and ready, he will simply push into Ukraine with ease and crush the opposition like there wasn't anything there.

I can hear the outcries now: "we had no idea that Russia was going to attack" how did they manage to bring in such a large force?"

It's mindboggling the way this is happening.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
UK’s ‘Iron Division’ deploys 1,300 troops to the United States
By George Allison
UK Defence Journal
April 8, 2021

The British Army say in a news release that Exercise Warfighter will test UK troops alongside their French and American counterparts in modern combat operations in a “realistic multi-domain simulation”, allowing commanders to test the headquarters ability to plan and conduct high intensity operations.

“Soldiers from all three armies have joined forces at two military bases in Texas (Fort Hood and Fort Bliss) to put their combined capabilities to the test. The 10-day exercise which begins today (6 April), unifies real world armour and troops on both sides of the Atlantic on a simulated battlefield to test their warfighting readiness and future agility.”

General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith KCB CBE ADC Gen, Chief of the General Staff, was quoted as saying:

“Warfighting capability remains the cornerstone of deterrence and the bedrock of a world-class British Army that will be more agile, integrated and lethal.”

Major General (Maj Gen) Mike Elviss MBE, General Officer Commanding 3 (UK) DIV, was quoted as saying:

“It is fundamental for us to be able to work together and that means training as we would fight. In essence, working alongside our closest allies and leveraging our relative strengths makes us more lethal as a whole.”

The British Army also add that while British and French forces are integrated at Divisional level into a U.S. corps for this year’s Warfighter, U.S. brigade combat teams are being inserted into each British and French division and for the first time a UK brigade (7th Infantry Brigade) will also be integrated into a U.S armoured division (1st Armored Division).

4 April 21 9.jpeg

Image Crown Copyright 2021.

Who are 3rd (UK) Division?

According to the British Army website, 3rd (United Kingdom) Division exists as the United Kingdom’s strategic land warfare asset.

“As such the Division is able to bring to bear the considerable firepower of the British Army and concentrate the force which includes: Reconnaissance, Armoured Cavalry; Armoured and Mechanised Infantry, Aviation, Artillery, Engineers and Logistics; in what is referred to as “the full spectrum” of warfighting capability.”

3rd (United Kingdom) Division is the only division at continual operational readiness in the UK. ‘The Iron Division’ is made up of 1st Armoured Infantry Brigade (Tidworth), 12th Armoured Infantry Brigade (Bulford Camp), 20th Armoured Infantry Brigade (Paderborn, Germany) and 101st Logistic Brigade (Aldershot).

You can read more about them here, on the British Army website.

UK’s ‘Iron Division’ deploys 1,300 troops to the United States (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Germany urges Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin have discussed concerns as tensions increase between pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian forces.

DW
April 8 2021

Angela Merkel has called on the Kremlin to unwind its recent military buildup near eastern Ukraine, the chancellor's office announced in a statement released Thursday.

Recent clashes between pro-Russia separatists and government forces have sparked fears of an escalation in the conflict in Ukraine's eastern Donbass region.

During a phone call, Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed other topics, as well, including the imprisonment of the Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny.

What did the Kremlin say?

Following the call, the Kremlin also released a statement saying the two leaders had "expressed concerns over the escalation of tensions in the southeast of Ukraine."

"Vladimir Putin drew attention to the provocative actions of Kyiv, which has recently been purposefully exacerbating the situation on the front line," according to the statement.

The deputy head of Russia's presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak, was quoted by the TASS agency on Thursday as saying that any major military hostilities could mean "the beginning of the end of Ukraine." He argued that Russia would be forced to defend its citizens in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) salutes a soldier in Donbass, Ukraine
Ukraine's president visited troops in Donbass Thursday after a flare-up in the conflict

What is the situation in Donbass?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was headed to Donbass on Thursday. He said he was "going to the locations of the escalation," adding that "Ukraine needs peace and will do everything for this."

Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of escalating tensions between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia separatists. On March 26 alone, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) recorded hundreds of ceasefire violations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with armed forces near the front line
President Zelenskiy also visited troops in more advanced positions

Ukraine's government has repeatedly called on Russia to pull its troops away from the border, with the Kremlin responding that internal troop movements are a domestic issue and arguing that it is entitled to protect Russian-speaking citizens in Donbass if the shaky ceasefire does not hold.

The European Union, NATO and the US have recently condemned the Russian military buildup on the border.

The conflict has killed at least 14,000 people since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, according to Ukraine's government.

Germany urges Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine | News | DW | 08.04.2021
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
The Hammer and the Sickle - Potential Russian Pincer-Offensive

Vantage Point North
April 08, 2021

For the past weeks the social media has been filled with sightings of Russian troops moving towards the regions bordering Ukraine. The buildup was initially called an exercise, but in the most recent press releases Kremlin has been rather clear that the troops have been deployed there as an operational deployment, if Russia feels a need to act upon any real or imaginary escalation in Donbass. The troops will stay in the region as long as President Putin sees it necessary.

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Russia Serna-Class landing crafts of the Caspian flotilla

The initial buildup was focused on occupied Crimea that has so far received an additional VDV airborne regiment, multiple mechanized battalion tactical groups and heavy artillery units equipped with at least the enormous 240mm 2S4 Tulpan mortars.

Additional trains and convoys have been spotted in Rostov, Krasnodar and Voronezh regions. The Russian controlled Belarusian military has also been alerted and multiple, very Russian looking units are operating in the southern part of the country. Unlike the typical training deployments, these convoys have had a larger portion of supply vehicles, including fuel tankers. The main battle tanks, predominantly T-72B3:s deployed have had their external fuel tanks fitted and they more frequently than normally carry dozer blades and mine plows.


Screenshot_20210404-213908.jpg

Russian T-72B3 with external fuel tanks and a dozer blade

The troops have been gathered all the way from the Central Military Districts Siberian units and some trains are on the way from Arkhangelsk and Murmansk in the Arctic. In addition to the troops deploying close to Ukraine, the Russian ICBM TELs carrying the intercontinental nuclear missiles have been dispersed to the vast Siberian taiga to provide a nuclear umbrella for any upcoming operations.

One surprising location where at least two Russian battalions have been spotted is the port city of Yeisk in Krasnodar oblast. The city is located on the southern shore of the Azov Sea, right across the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

On 8th of April the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that over ten vessels of the Caspian fleet would transit from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. The Volga-Don canal route takes this flotilla of gunboats, landing crafts and corvettes directly into the Azov Sea, less than a 100km form the Yeisk docks, that are well suited to loading all sorts of watercraft. The flotilla would be able to cross the 50 km stretch of water to Mariupol in less than an hour, bypassing the heavily fortified Ukrainian defense lines east of the city.

Russian beachhead on the northern shore of the Azov Sea would simultaneously threaten the rear of both the defenders of the Mariupol sector and the troops guarding the narrow approaches from Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland.

Another concentration of Russian reinforcements has been spotted building a temporary base of operations in the Voronetzh oblast, roughly 180 km from the Ukrainian border. The base has at least 600 vehicles with heavy artillery and electronic warfare support. Together with the forces of and in Belarus, this multi-brigade force threatens to bypass the Ukrainian forces facing off with the Russian forces already in Donbass. It looks like the Russian high command is setting up a pincer move that would force the well entrenched Ukrainian defenders to react and move.

The maneuver warfare this would result in, is something that the Russian forces have trained a lot in the recent years and their new command and communications infrastructure allows a tight integration of different components of their force, while the extensive electronic warfare capabilities could severely hamper the Ukrainian response.

If successful the pincer movement would either force the Ukrainian army surrounding the Russian control areas in Donbass into full retreat towards west or to their complete destruction. It would hardly be the first massive encirclement operation in the Ukrainian steppes.

The Hammer and the Sickle - Potential Russian Pincer-Offensive (vantagepointnorth.net)
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Ukraine's president visits conflict area as tensions rise
Ukraine’s president is visiting the area of conflict in his country’s east amid an escalation of tensions that has raised fears of a resumption of large-scale hostilities
By The Associated Press
8 April 2021, 11:13


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands a soldier as he visits the war-hit Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, April 8, 2021. Ukraine is at the center of a major geopolitical battle in the eastern part of the country with Moscow b

Image Icon
The Associated Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands a soldier as he visits the war-hit Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, April 8, 2021. Ukraine is at the center of a major geopolitical battle in the eastern part of the country with Moscow backed separatists. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)

KYIV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s president on Thursday visited the area of conflict in his country's east amid an escalation of tensions that has raised fears of a resumption of large-scale hostilities.

In Moscow, a senior Kremlin official sternly warned Ukraine against using force to reclaim control of the rebel east, saying that this might force Russia to step in to protect civilians there.

The conflict with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine erupted shortly after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting.

Officials in Ukraine and the West have raised concerns about increasingly frequent cease-fire violations in the country's industrial heartland, known as Donbas. They also expressed worries about Russian troops' buildup along the border with Ukraine.

“I want to be with our soldiers in the tough times in Donbas,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy tweeted as he headed to the conflict area Thursday. He said that a 23-year-old Ukrainian soldier was killed in the area on Wednesday night.

“Thank you for keeping people calm and defending our land,” Zelenskiy told troops during the trip. "You are a true example of heroism and dedication. We remember every warrior who died defending our state.”

Zelenskiy has accused Russia of flexing its military muscles and held a series of calls with Western leaders to rally support for Ukraine amid the tensions.

Russia has rejected the claims, arguing that it can deploy its troops wherever it deems necessary on its territory and emphasizing that they don't threaten anyone. It has accused Ukrainian authorities of trying to stoke up tensions in the east for domestic policy purposes.

In a call Thursday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin “drew attention to the provocative actions of Kyiv, which has deliberately sought to exacerbate tensions along the line of control,” the Kremlin said in its readout of the call.

Merkel’s office said she discussed the increased Russian military presence in the area near eastern Ukraine with Putin, and “called for the removal of these troop reinforcements in order to achieve a de-escalation of the situation.”

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a Thursday briefing that the U.S. "is increasingly concerned by recent escalating Russian aggressions in eastern Ukraine, including Russian troop movements on Ukraine’s border.”

“Russia now has more troops on the border with Ukraine than at any time since 2014. Five Ukrainian soldiers have been killed this week alone. These are all deeply concerning signs,” she said.

Speaking at a panel discussion with political experts in Moscow, Dmitry Kozak, a Putin aide who serves as Russia's top negotiator with Kyiv, warned Ukraine against using military force to retake control of the eastern regions, where many residents have received Russian citizenship.

“The start of hostilities will the beginning of an end for Ukraine,” Kozak said. “It would mean shooting itself not just in the foot, but in the head.”

Asked if Russia could intervene militarily, Kozak responded that “it will depend on the scale of the fire.”

“If they try to do it like in Srebrenica, as our president said, we will likely have to come to their defense,” he said in a reference to the July 1995 massacre of civilians by Bosnian Serb forces during the Bosnian war.

Ukraine and many Western nations have accused Russia of sending troops and weapons to eastern Ukraine to support the rebels — accusations the Kremlin has denied.

Ukraine's president visits conflict area as tensions rise - ABC News (go.com)
 

jward

passin' thru
Doge
@IntelDoge



Per CNN, the U.S. is considering sending warships into the Black Sea as a show of force for #Ukraine amidst an increased Russian military presence along the border with #Ukraine. U.S. is required to give 14 days notice of intention to enter, unknown if that's been done yet.
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Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

16m


The U.S. is currently discussing the Russian military buildup with NATO allies and have detected more Russian troops on the border with Ukraine than at any time since 2014. Intelligence flights have increased to keep track of naval and ground movements.
 
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