WEATHER Tropical weather, 2026

[Millwright]

Another one being watched, just of the affican coast.

 

[Millwright]

 

[Millwright]

Invest 92L has some spaghetti guesses now.

Intensity models have it holding at TS for a week or so.

 

[TxGal]

When I first arrived in Texas years ago, I was told it takes a hurricane to break these long periods of heat and drought.

I don't like hurricanes any more than heat and drought, but that reasoning does seem to hold true.

 

[Millwright]

This one looks like there is some chance of it getting into the western gulf.

A right turn and up to Okie land would be OK.

For us, the first day below 100 is the 26th.

 

[Millwright]

Invest 92L looks like it will head to Cancun or south of there. Post #83


94L is right behind it, early tracks have it on a similar path, maybe a little north towards the Florida Straits...for now.

This one bears a little more watching, IMO.

Still way out there tho.

 

[Firebird]

We need the water, but I don't want the devastation a hurricane brings.

 

[day late]

We need the water, but I don't want the devastation a hurricane brings.

I know what you mean, and I mean no disrespect, but it seems ironic. The Egyptians didn’t want the Nile to flood. Yet that was what restored the land. Storms may refresh the aquifer, but there is a price to pay.

 

[Millwright]

I'm wondering why the next one coming off the affican coast isn't being discussed.

It looks pretty healthy.

 

[Millwright]

Even Hawaii gets some occasionally.

 

[Griz3752]

Looks like it may hug the coast and drift up to the Texas area. Post #1

Still not calling for serious development...yet.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay
of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge
over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Berg

I was hoping those storms might hug the East coast and drop their crap on the Dem SJW-Marxist cabal running NYS.

 

[Millwright]

AL92 is slowly fizzling.

AL94 intensity models are creeping up.

 

[Millwright]

 

[Millwright]

Looks like both of those systems have fizzled. #82

Go figure.

 

[day late]

After these many decades of living in hurricane alley, I advise. Be careful what you wish for. These storms don't care who you are. They just do what they do.

 

[psychgirl]

I’ve not seen a thread for this but tropical weather applies; we Hoosiers are having catastrophic rains and flooding!!
Ongoing and severe.

My house is within spitting distance from bad situations but we are ok, thank God.
Roads have buckled and split in two.

Shopping malls and places normally not affected are flooded, it’s not just homes now. The White River is flowing into areas NEVER seen before.

The White River is at levels not seen since the flood of 1913. Historic, is a word often thrown around but this truly is historic. We have a state of emergency declared for Indiana.

It’s rained torrentially since last Tuesday, almost daily now. The storms that started this mess are like some that don’t happen very often coming down SO hard trees and power lines down, some places had homes split in two by trees down.We lost power that day but not since then. Thousands and thousands still have no power and are flooded out of their homes.
The rains aren’t normal, in my opinion.

My cousin who lives in Florida agreed with my descriptions; hurricane type rain and damage. He’s been checking on us. He said gave him flashbacks of his experience down there.

Now I read that ANOTHER road, three minutes from us, is in danger of buckling.

More rain coming today
It’s stifling humid. Dew point is 74 right now.

The creek right out of my kitchen window is very very high, please pray our sump pump holds.

There may actually be a thread, idk
I’ve been busy following local news.

**update: the road in danger that I mentioned previously? It collapsed overnight. This is less than 3-5 minutes from us.

DH drove that route going to his previous job (he no longer works there THANK The Lord!! That’s another story…)
So, he’d not have been able to work, trying to get there because now, all possible avenues going east are either under water or collapsed.

 

[BUBBAHOTEPT]

Boy, we sure could use some of that rain…..

 

[psychgirl]

Boy, we sure could use some of that rain…..

You can have it.

This is so weird and awful

More rain rain rain.

 

[Millwright]

3 systems in the Atlantic. #82.

Hawaii has a TS headed thataway.

 

[Lei]

Lala skirt us on the Big Island and caused a landslide in Naalehu village. One death 100 houses destroyed and a graveyard uprooted. Dropped 43 inches of rain. The flooding caused mud and rocks to wash down the mountain.
Moki is not a hurricane YET. Due to hopefully go south of us tomorrow evening. Another on that ones heels headed our way.

 

[Millwright]

For Hawaii, TS Moke.

 

[Millwright]

The latest one, coming off the affican coast, bears watching.

Showing on the 7-Day, Post #82

It's still over land, not even showing on the 2-day tropical forecast, but I guess they expect it to develop into something.

 

[Millwright]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly getting better organized in
association with a low pressure area centered about 400 miles
southeast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible,
and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or
storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and
north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with
the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Beven

 

[Millwright]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
of Bermuda is moving northward at 15 to 20 mph. Although the
shower activity is showing signs of organization, the circulation
remains broad and elongated. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression or storm on Tuesday before it moves
over cool waters and into unfavorable environmental conditions
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system could become a tropical depression during the next few days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions
could become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Millwright]

This one is now AL96.

It's a red blob.

 

[Millwright]

AL96 downgraded from red to orange.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have slightly
improved in organization over the last several hours. However,
recently received satellite wind data suggests that the circulation
is not yet well-defined. Environmental conditions are somewhat
favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form within the next day or two as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive by this weekend,
potentially ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen

 

[Millwright]

I wish they'd make up their dayum mind.

Now TS Dolly.

 

[Millwright]

FWIW

 

[Ragnarok]

It's named "Dolly"???

What are the odds...

 

[Firebird]

FWIW

I thought heavy wind shear was supposed to eliminate it?

 

[Millwright]

I thought heavy wind shear was supposed to eliminate it?

In a few days, I guess.

 

[Millwright]

There's a little piece of a disturbance in the gulf.

They don't expect much out of it.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located
several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there
are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation.
Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to
west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northeastern and North-Central Gulf of America:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the
northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a
weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest
of Pensacola, Florida. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[day late]

There's a little piece of a disturbance in the gulf.

They don't expect much out of it.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located
several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there
are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation.
Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to
west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northeastern and North-Central Gulf of America:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the
northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a
weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest
of Pensacola, Florida. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Saw that and I agree. Nothing to write home about. Maybe a little rain and a little wind, but that's it.

 

[Millwright]

It's now Invest 96L.

Intensity models are split on it making TS.

 

[Millwright]

Not expecting much out of either system.

7-day Precip.

 

[Millwright]

AL97 is looking like it might do something in the next coupla days.


1. Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America
about 125 mils south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.
Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this
system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional
development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward,
and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form
before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana
coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and
Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[Millwright]

AL97 looks like it will briefly make TS tonight before hitting land.

It should bring some desperately needed rain to TX and maybe a little in OK.

Desperately needed.

 

[SmithJ]

Not expecting much out of either system.

7-day Precip.

Bug donut hole of dry over Texas, Oklahoma and that other state

 

[Millwright]

Bug donut hole of dry over Texas, Oklahoma and that other state

And been there for 2+ months.

 

[TxGal]

This one looks to track right on top of us as it heads northward. Need the rain desperately, but gosh, not all at one time. Doing a Costco run ahead of this one, but not buying any frozen food!