WEATHER Tropical weather, 2026

(fair use applies)



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Recent satellite-wind data and nearby surface observations indicate
that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Regardless,
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days as the system
moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the
northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana
should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to
bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin
.
 
xgtwo_atl_7d0_w1920.png
 
Great, they now have my area in the "Cone of Doom". Yesterday, they were saying that high pressure over Texas would steer it North into Mississippi/Alabama. Now, they are not saying that.

For 35 years, Southeast Texas had no major storms. Now days, we've not been so lucky. If this one comes my way, we'll have to remove all 10 of my solar panels from the carport roof, and take down the Starlink antenna. The solar panels will get a permanent ground mount if so.
 
Txkstew said:
Great, they now have my area in the "Cone of Doom". Yesterday, they were saying that high pressure over Texas would steer it North into Mississippi/Alabama. Now, they are not saying that.

For 35 years, Southeast Texas had no major storms. Now days, we've not been so lucky. If this one comes my way, we'll have to remove all 10 of my solar panels from the carport roof, and take down the Starlink antenna. The solar panels will get a permanent ground mount if so.
Click to expand...

Don't play with this one.

We are still getting thunderstorms. We got the weakened system and it was impressive. If it intensifies and you are in the path your precautions are justified.

New Orleans needs to thank God that this is not a hurricane (It still has 3 days to intensify) with the path it is on, currently.

1784491138739.png
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
The problem with storms like this is first they travel westward. Then once the storm breaks apart, all of that rain gets caught up in the jet stream and moves eastward. The area recently soaked gets hit again and everyone downwind, from Texas to Florida, gets a lot of rain for a long time.
 
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The earlier aircraft mission into the depression found a minimum
central pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 34
kt. ASCAT data from the western part of the circulation showed
winds below 35 kt, and the latest satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB was 30 kt. Based on these, the depression has not yet reached
tropical-storm strength and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The low-level center has been moving erratically most of the day,
but the overall motion seems to be 305/3 kt. There is again little
change in the track forecast reasoning. The depression is in light
steering currents between two mid-level ridges, one to its
northwest centered over the central U. S. and one to its southeast
centered near the Bahamas. The U. S. ridge is expected to become a
little more dominant of a steering feature as it builds eastward.
The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed
by a turn toward the west. However, there is some spread in the
guidance in the first 36-48 h about how close the center comes to
the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be.
The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and
is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted
that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which
could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the
effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the
ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern
Gulf coast.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 18-24 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After that, the northeasterly shear should
increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to
destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt
intensification and then cause weakening. The new intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 h, and this is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The new forecast also
calls for the system to weaken to a remnant low by 120 h, and based
on the dynamical model guidance there is a possibility it
could dissipate between 72-120 h due to shear and land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday
and Wednesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area tonight or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north
of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions
of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Posted for fair use......

WEATHER

Tropical Storm Bertha approaches Texas; what to expect in Coastal Bend​

Portrait of Olivia Garrett

Olivia Garrett
Corpus Christi Caller Times
July 21, 2026, 4:09 a.m. CT

A tropical storm is forecast to move toward the Texas coast, though current guidance indicates the more significant effects will be east of the Coastal Bend.

Tropical Storm Bertha was over the northeast Gulf as of 7 p.m. July 20 and is expected to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest and west along the Gulf Coast from the northeast Gulf to the Florida Panhandle toward Louisiana and Texas.

The cone of uncertainty, which extends from the likely path of the storm in the center, includes all of the Texas coast. It could hit north of Matagorda Bay by 7 a.m. July 25. The storm is expected to move near the northern Gulf coast as a tropical storm, weakening into a depression as it moves toward Texas.

90991107007-nws-2.png



The earliest arrival of tropical storm-force winds at Matagorda Bay could be around the night of July 23 or morning of July 24, if the storm doesn't weaken.

Forecast confidence in the storm's eventual track and intensity is lower than average, according to a July 20 weather forecast from the National Weather Service Corpus Christi.

"Even though much of the available guidance keeps the more significant impacts east of the Coastal Bend, uncertainty remains high enough to maintain low-end rain chances across the region late this week," a July 20 forecast discussion reads.

Late this week, increasing easterly swell is expected to result in rougher surf, increased risk of rip currents and increased risk for coastal flooding.

Corpus Christi weather forecast​

Before the potential effects of the tropical depression, Coastal Bend residents can expect seasonably hot conditions.

The National Weather Service forecasts sunny and hot conditions with heat index values as high as 107 on July 21.

July 22 and July 23 are also predicted to be sunny and hot.

On July 24, there is a slight chance of showers with thunderstorms possible after 1 p.m.

Olivia Garrett reports on education and community news in South Texas. Contact her at olivia.garrett@caller.com.
 
Judging from the radar loop, the swirl of the Depression, just passed about 15 miles South of my location. A little rain, and the trees are barely moving. My Son went down to the coast 30 miles from here to fish overnight.
 
The impulses coming across affica are getting a little stronger.

irnm7.GIF



More storms originate from there, starting in August.

august.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top