WEATHER Tropical weather, 2026

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Hurricane season officially kicks off tomorrow.


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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdXNDkD2kBI




View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yP1tcy9a10
 
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On the bright side:
ABNT20 KNHC 292311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Looks like it may hug the coast and drift up to the Texas area. Post #1

Still not calling for serious development...yet.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay
of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge
over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Berg
 
Map, post #1.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Pasch
 
All quiet on the Eastern front....

View attachment 607276

This is a static image of the map in post #1, which is auto updating.

I try to keep the relevant, auto-updating images at the top of every page during the tropical season, so peeps can go straight to the useful graphics.

If a system develops and appears to be a threat, I will start a breakout thread on it.

Here's a link to the 2025 and 2024 threads so you can get an idea of how they are structured, as you weren't around then.




 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 97.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of
days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight
or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast
later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and
could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is
anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 
(snipped)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday, and are expected within the warning
area beginning on Wednesday morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible tonight and tomorrow from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Tornado boxes up, Miss. & Ala.

mcd1185.png



Also giving a slight chance of Arthur's remnants drifting off the east coast into the Atlantic and reforming. Post #1
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Off of the southeastern coast of the U. S.:
A low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern
coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal
system early next week. Slow development of this system will be
possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven
 
Well,

Looks like the DW is going down to Fl next. Going to stay for a couple of weeks. I will go a month after that, say mid August. I have yet to go through any big weather in FL, other than landing at Orlando Airport during Hurricane Irene.
It just dirtied the place up a bit. They land you into the wind. The smoothest landing ever!
 
Mike's Weather Page:

7/18 Tropical Update: Saturday AM NHC keeping chances at 30% for Gulf development. Circle highlights where. Overnight models about the same. General slide to N/NW. That brings the heavy rains and storms into next week that direction. Watching real-time. Little spin showing surface level it appears. Live today 1pm ET. Come say hi. spaghettimodels.com

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2078445549863231784
Looks like we will get a lot of rain
 
Rained like crazy here (St. Pete area) yesterday. The lightning came so fast that there were no breaks. It turned night to day.

Wind wasn't bad but the rain was every bit as hard as a hurricane and when the sun did rise everything started out an almost neon green and shifted to a Mountain Dew yellow. I was looking for tornados but, nothing (thankfully).

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