ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

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South Korean leader: Seoul won't seek own nuclear deterrent​


By KIM TONG-HYUNG

6-7 minutes


SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s president said Wednesday his government has no plans to pursue its own nuclear deterrent and called instead for more diplomacy in the face of growing North Korean nuclear weapons capabilities, even as the North test-fired two suspected cruise missiles.

The launches were detected from North Korea’s western coast hours before South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol used a news conference to urge Pyongyang to return to diplomacy aimed at exchanging denuclearization steps for economic benefits.

South Korea’s military, which didn’t reveal the launches until after Yoon’s remarks, provided no immediate flight details about the North’s weapons, including how they moved or how far they traveled.
Yoon’s office said his national security director, Kim Sung-han, discussed the launch with other senior officials before Yoon addressed reporters and that they reviewed the South’s military readiness. Tensions could further rise as the United States and South Korea kick off their biggest combined training in years next week to counter the North Korean threat. The North describes such drills as invasion rehearsals and has often responded to them with missile tests or other provocations.

Yoon during the news conference maintained a reserved tone on Pyongyang, saying Seoul doesn’t desire political change in North Korea that’s brought by force and that the rivals should aim at building sustainable peace.
Yoon’s comments followed his proposal on Monday for an “audacious” economic assistance package to North Korea if it abandons its nuclear weapons program. He has avoided harsh criticism of the North after it threatened “deadly” retaliation last week over a COVID-19 outbreak it blames on the South.

Yoon’s proposal for large-scale aid in food and healthcare and modernizing power and port infrastructure resembled previous South Korean offers that were rejected by North Korea, which is speeding its development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, seen by leader Kim Jong Un as his strongest guarantee of survival.
Still, Yoon expressed hope for “meaningful dialogue” with North Korea over his plan and stressed that Seoul is willing to provide corresponding economic rewards at each step of a phased denuclearization process if the North commits to a genuine “roadmap” toward fully abandoning its weapons program.
“We are not telling them to ‘denuclearize entirely first and then we will provide,’” Yoon said. “What we are saying is that we will provide the things we can in correspondence to their steps if they only show a firm determination (toward denuclearization).”

Inter-Korean ties have worsened amid a stalemate in larger nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. that derailed in early 2019 because of disagreements over a relaxation of crippling U.S.-led sanctions on the North in exchange for disarmament steps.
North Korea has ramped up its missile testing to a record pace in 2022, launching more than 30 ballistic weapons so far, including its first intercontinental ballistic missiles in nearly five years.
The heighted testing activity underscores North Korea’s dual intent to advance its arsenal and force the United States to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power so it can negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength, experts say. Kim could up the ante soon as there are indications that the North is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since September 2017, when it claimed to have developed a thermonuclear weapon to fit on its ICBMs.
While Kim’s ICBMs get much of the international attention, North Korea is also expanding its range of nuclear-capable, short-range missiles that can target South Korea. Kim has punctuated his weapons development with threats to proactively use his nuclear weapons in conflicts against the South or the U.S., which experts say communicate an escalating nuclear doctrine that could increase concerns for its neighbors.

Yoon has vowed to strengthen the South’s defenses through its alliance with the United States by resuming large-scale military training that was canceled or downsized during the Trump years and boosting the South’s missile defenses. The Biden administration has also reaffirmed U.S. commitments to defending South Korea and Japan, including “extended deterrence,” referring to an assurance to defend its allies with its full military capabilities, including nuclear.
But some experts say it’s becoming clear South Korea has no clear way to counter the leverage North Korea has with its nukes, expressing concerns that Washington might hesitate to defend its ally in the event of war when Kim’s ICBMs would pose a potential threat to mainland American cities.

Some South Koreans have called for the reintroduction of tactical U.S. nuclear weapons that were removed from the South in the 1990s, or for Seoul to pursue its own deterrent.
Yoon dismissed the possibility of the latter during the news conference, saying that Seoul will stay committed to an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
“I believe the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) regime is a very important and necessary premise for permanent world peace,” Yoon said, expressing hope that the U.S. deterrence strategy for its allies could evolve to counter the North’s growing threat.

Yoon’s comments came after North Korea last week claimed a widely disputed victory over COVID-19 but also blamed South Korea for the outbreak. North Korea insists leaflets and other objects flown across the border by activists spread the virus, an unscientific claim Seoul describes as “ridiculous.”
North Korea has a history of dialing up pressure on South Korea when it doesn’t get what it wants from the United States, and there are concerns that North Korea’s threat portends a provocation, which could include a nuclear or missile test or even border skirmishes. Some experts say North Korea may stir up tensions around joint military exercises between the allies.

posted for fair use
apnews.com

South Korean leader: Seoul won't seek own nuclear deterrent

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s president said Wednesday his government has no plans to pursue its own nuclear deterrent and called instead for more diplomacy in the face of growing North Korean nuclear weapons capabilities, even as the North test-fired two suspected cruise missiles.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
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30m

Update: Reuters: South Korea's president's office says it regrets Pyongyang's decision to press ahead with developing its nuclear capabilities.

North Korea asks South Korean president to "close his mouth" after offering economic assistance.
 
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Chang: China Is Preparing To Go To War​

by Tyler Durden​

Authored by Gordon Change via 19fortyfive.com,
Last month, a Chinese entrepreneur making medical equipment for consumers told me that local officials had demanded he convert his production lines in China so that they could turn out items for the military. Communist Party cadres, he said, were issuing similar orders to other manufacturers.

Moreover, Chinese academics privately say the ongoing expulsion of foreign colleagues from China’s universities appears to be a preparation for hostilities.

The People’s Republic of China is preparing to go to war, and it is not trying to hide its efforts. Amendments to the National Defense Law, effective the first day of last year, transfer powers from civilian to military officials.
In general, the amendments reduce the role of the central government’s State Council by shifting power to the CMC, the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission. Specifically, the State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People’s Liberation Army.
As Zeng Zhiping of Soochow University told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post,
“The CMC is now formally in charge of making national defense policy and principles, while the State Council becomes a mere implementing agency to provide support for the military.”
Click to expand...
In one sense, these amendments were window dressing. “Recent changes to China’s National Defense Law that diminish the power of the State Council are largely political posturing,” Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center told me soon after the amendments went into effect. “The Chinese Communist Party and particularly its subordinate CMC have always held supreme power over decisions regarding war and peace.”

Why then do we care about the National Defense Law amendments?
The amendments, Fisher tells us, “point to China’s ambition to achieve ‘whole nation’ levels of military mobilization to fight wars and give the CMC formal power to control the future Chinese capabilities for global military intervention.”
“The revised National Defense Law also embodies the concept that everyone should be involved in national defense,” reports the Communist Party’s Global Times, summarizing the words of an unnamed CMC official. “All national organizations, armed forces, political parties, civil groups, enterprises, social organizations, and other organizations should support and take part in the development of national defense, fulfill national defense duties, and carry out national defense missions according to the law.”
Click to expand...
As Fisher told 19FortyFive this month, “For the past 40 years, China’s Communist Party has been preparing for brutal war, and now the ruling organization is accelerating its plans.”

The Party, as it readies itself for combat, is leaving nothing to chance. In March, its Central Organization Department issued an internal directive prohibiting the spouses and children of ministerial-level officials from owning foreign real estate or shares registered offshore. The ban also appears to apply to such officials themselves as there are reports of their selling foreign assets. Moreover, such officials and immediate families are not, except in limited circumstances, allowed to open accounts overseas with financial institutions.
The directive, issued soon after the imposition of sanctions on Russian officials for the “special military operation” in Ukraine, appears designed to sanction-proof Chinese officials.

Moreover, the central government is trying to sanctions-proof itself. On April 22, officials from the finance ministry and central bank met with representatives of dozens of banks, including HSBC, to discuss what Beijing could do in the event of the imposition of punitive measures on China.
The holding of the “emergency meeting,” reported by the Financial Times, is ominous.
“The officials and attendees did not mention specific scenarios, but one possible trigger for such sanctions is thought to be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan,” the FT noted.
Click to expand...
The fact that Chinese officials held the meeting is a clear indication that Beijing is planning belligerent acts.
“Be ready for battle.” That’s how Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post summarized Chinese ruler Xi Jinping’s first order to the military of 2019. In January of that year, he gave a major speech to the CMC on making preparations for war, and the address was then broadcast nationwide.
Foreign analysts debate whether China is going to war anytime soon. The Chinese political system has become less transparent over time, so it is not clear what senior leaders are thinking.

Yet it is clear what senior leaders are in fact doing. They are getting troops ready for another advance below the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, preparing to seize more Indian territory in the Himalayas. They renewed, in November of last year and this June, attempts to block the resupply of a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea. They ordered four vessels to enter Japan’s sovereign water around the disputed but Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea in late July. They are directing continual provocations around Taiwan, including a violation of the island’s sovereign airspace in early February.
And there is something else that is unmistakable: Xi and senior leaders are getting China’s citizens ready for war.
* * *
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and The Great U.S.-China Tech War. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.

Posted for fair use
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Chang: China Is Preparing To Go To War | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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Japan considers deploying long-range missiles to counter China - Yomiuri​


August 20, 20229:43 PM CDTLast Updated 7 hours ago

2 minutes


Printed Chinese and Japanese flags are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
TOKYO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Japan is considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to boost its counterattack capability against China, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Sunday.
The missiles would be existing arms modified to extend their range from 100 km (62 miles) to 1,000 km, the daily said, citing government sources.
The arms, launched by ships or aircraft, would be stationed mainly around the southern Nansei islands and capable of reaching the coastal areas of North Korea and China, the Yomiuri said.
Representatives from Japan's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.
Japan, which interprets its war-renouncing postwar constitution to mean it may use its military only for self-defense, has stepped up its military spending and taken a more assertive strategy in recent years. But it has refrained from deploying long-range missiles, among its limits on weapons that can strike targets on foreign soil.
Regional tensions ratcheted up this month after a visit by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taiwan, which is self-ruled but claimed by China. Beijing launched missiles near Taiwan and into Japan's exclusive economic zone. read more
Reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by William Mallard

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-considers-deploying-long-range-missiles-counter-china-yomiuri-2022-08-21/





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Update: Reuters: Japan is considering deploying 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to confront China.

1:07 AM · Aug 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
 
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US begins biggest drills with South Korea since Trump-Kim summit​


Al Arabiya English

4-5 minutes


The US and South Korea will begin their biggest joint military exercise in about five years after a hiatus on large-scale exercises that failed to entice North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to make concessions in disarmament talks.
The drills known as Ulchi Freedom Shield are expected to involve thousands of military personnel, and will run for two weeks starting Monday. The US and South Korea have said they are defensive in nature and will include exercises to coordinate forces in response to an invasion from North Korea. Although official details have yet to be released, the drills are likely to involve warships, aircraft and armored vehicles.
An angry response is almost certain from North Korea, which for decades has assailed joint exercises as a prelude to invasion and nuclear war. Pyongyang has turned up the heat in its rhetoric in the past few weeks, indicating it could get back to the provocations that were largely put on hold as it battled a Covid outbreak first revealed in May, and which it said ended earlier this month.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who took office in May, pledged to restore large-scale joint drills with the US to bolster security against North Korea. His office said last month the two allies would return to practicing war scenarios in-person on land, at sea and in the air, replacing training over the past several years that used computerized command-and-control simulations.
The US, South Korea and Japan conducted a joint missile defense exercise off Hawaii earlier this month. The public display of unity from the two US allies is an improvement from a deterioration of security ties in recent years over disputes stemming from Japan’s 1910-1945 colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula.
Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, was wary of angering Pyongyang and making public military maneuvers that could sour ties with China or his rapprochement with North Korea.
North Korea has sought for decades to leverage the prospect of disarmament talks to scale back the US-South Korean military drills, something which former President Donald Trump agreed to during his summits with Kim Jong Un from 2018.

Kim and Trump met three times with no concrete results to roll back North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal, which only grew larger as the talks sputtered. Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of the leader, last month rejected a disarmament-for-aid deal offered by Yoon as “stupid and dismissed the idea of engaging with Seoul.
The US, Japan and South Korea have all warned that North Korea is readying for its first nuclear test since 2017. Pyongyang is trying to build warheads small enough for tactical devices to hit American allies in Asia and increase the power of weapons that would be carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles to the US.
Any display of North Korea’s weapons would serve as a reminder of the security problems posed by the regime that have simmered as the attention of President Joe Biden’s administration focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since most US troops are stationed in South Korea for about a year, drills are typically the only time for most of them to do real-world, widespread training with their allies. Soldiers and equipment from bases in the US and Japan at times were integrated into the operations, while a US aircraft group has sailed offshore for many incarnations.
The US still has about 28,500 troops in South Korea and military leaders on both sides have said drills are essential to prepare for any provocations by Pyongyang. North Korea positions large portions of its million-man military near the border drawn up when the cease fire took hold.
The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise will improve South Korea’s “all-out warfare capability, its Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement last week.

Read more:
US carries out Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile test
South Korea offering large-scale aid package for north’s nukes
North Korea fires two cruise missiles: Military source

Posted for fair use
english.alarabiya.net

US begins biggest drills with South Korea since Trump-Kim summit

The US and South Korea will begin their biggest joint military exercise in about five years after a hiatus on large-scale exercises that failed to entice
english.alarabiya.net english.alarabiya.net
 
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Japan considers deploying long-range missiles to counter China - Yomiuri​


August 20, 20229:43 PM CDTLast Updated 7 hours ago

2 minutes


Printed Chinese and Japanese flags are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
TOKYO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Japan is considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to boost its counterattack capability against China, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Sunday.
The missiles would be existing arms modified to extend their range from 100 km (62 miles) to 1,000 km, the daily said, citing government sources.
The arms, launched by ships or aircraft, would be stationed mainly around the southern Nansei islands and capable of reaching the coastal areas of North Korea and China, the Yomiuri said.
Representatives from Japan's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.
Japan, which interprets its war-renouncing postwar constitution to mean it may use its military only for self-defense, has stepped up its military spending and taken a more assertive strategy in recent years. But it has refrained from deploying long-range missiles, among its limits on weapons that can strike targets on foreign soil.
Regional tensions ratcheted up this month after a visit by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taiwan, which is self-ruled but claimed by China. Beijing launched missiles near Taiwan and into Japan's exclusive economic zone. read more
Reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by William Mallard

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-considers-deploying-long-range-missiles-counter-china-yomiuri-2022-08-21/

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Update: Reuters: Japan is considering deploying 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to confront China.

1:07 AM · Aug 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
Click to expand...

I hate it when I call it.....
 
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Amid Boiling US-China Tensions, Pentagon To Boost Defenses Of Its 'Most Strategic' Airbase At Guam​


Sakshi Tiwari

6-7 minutes


The US Missile Defense Agency is undertaking a strenuous exercise of upgrading the defenses of Guam as the long-range missiles of China and North Korea pose a severe threat to the US territory in the Pacific.
The head of the US Missile Defense Agency, Vice Adm. Jon Hill, revealed new information on progress towards upgraded air and missile defenses on the strategic island of Guam. The US Army and Navy joined forces on this project with the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).
On the sidelines of the 2022 Space and Missile Defense Symposium, which was held from August 9 to 11, Vice Adm. Hill provided an update on the Guam Defense System via a webcast of a live interview with Jen Judson of Defense News.
The island is getting new air and missile defense capabilities as part of a larger initiative to deter China throughout the Indo-Pacific region. There have been talks within the higher echelons that Guam should have at least some additional defenses in place by 2026.
Andersen Air Force Base, Guam- Wikimedia Commons

Guam is home to vital air and naval facilities and is expanding its military infrastructure significantly. It is widely understood that the Andersons Air Base in Guam would serve as a launch pad for US operations against China in the Indo-Pacific theatre in case of a potential conflict.

‘Legally Copied’ By Lockheed Martin – Was US Navy’s F-35B, China’s J-20 Derived From Soviet-Russian Aircraft?​

Click to expand...
That being said, it is anticipated that crucial US military stations in the Pacific Rim may be in danger from China’s long-range missiles like the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can travel 3,400 miles to its target and often goes by the name “Guam killer.”
China went as far as releasing a propaganda video in 2020 depicting a simulated attack on Guam, making no effort to mask its intention.

A Chinese rocket force brigade practiced the fast transfer of DF-26 ballistic missiles to another location to launch a second wave of missiles. Photo: Xinhua
In addition, China’s development of long-range and hypersonic weapons jeopardizes American military assets in Guam. Therefore, upgrading Guam’s defenses was listed as the primary goal of the US Defense budget through 2023, as previously reported by EurAsian Times.
Vice Adm. Hill made a case for various new defensive systems in May 2022, stressing all of the capabilities that would be located on the island if Congress accepted the proposal.
As per the plan proposed by the MDA fiscal 2023 budget request, the crucial US territory of Guam would receive 360-degree sensor coverage, missile defenses, and a command center.

The Crucial Guam Missile Defense​

In his recent interaction, Hill clarified that the Guam Defense System’s exact number, configuration, and arrangement of interceptors, sensors, command and control nodes, and other parts had not yet been decided.
According to Hill, MDA completed a “sighting summit” last week and was able to visit each site in Guam that has been suggested as a location for missile defense components there. “It’s not final, but we have a very good feel for at least technically and operationally where things should go in order for it to function as a system,” he said.
On Guam, MDA and the Army currently offer a more constrained level of ballistic missile defense. A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system battery, built to intercept specific ballistic missiles approaching their target from above, is deployed on the island.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense – Wikipedia
A unit outfitted with the Israeli-made Iron Dome system, which according to its manufacturer Rafael has proven anti-cruise missile capabilities, had been temporarily deployed to the island, but only for testing and evaluation purposes.
Although the Army controls all THAAD-equipped troops, including the launchers and their powerful AN/TPY-2 radars, the THAAD program is currently run by MDA. It is now obtaining instances of Dynetics’ Enduring Shield, a heat-seeking air-to-air missile interceptor that employs a canisterized variant of the AIM-9X Sidewinder.
The MDA chief stated last year that plans were evolving toward a more innovative and distributed architecture, including protected underground facilities. Initially, there had been a discussion of creating an Aegis Ashore missile defense system in Guam.

The next generation interceptor, or NGI program, is vital to the Missile Defense Agency’s ground-based midcourse defense, or GMD, system. Last year, the MDA granted contracts to Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin to accelerate the development of the system.
“I will tell you both companies are saying they can get to first emplacement earlier than the government reference schedule of 2028,” said Navy Vice Adm. Jon A. Hill during a Friday discussion with Defense News. “I will tell you there is a long road between now and then. And so, we’ll just keep on the path. Both are performing very well. Two different designs, both incorporating multiple kill vehicles — that’s where the threat drives us,” he added.
Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) | Lockheed Martin
Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) | Lockheed Martin
This week, British Aerospace Systems issued a press release announcing that Lockheed Martin had awarded a contract to develop and produce next-generation infrared seeker technology for the THAAD interceptor missile, which will provide vital sensing and guidance capabilities against threats from ballistic missiles.
According to BAE Systems, its seeker technology can locate and lock on to missiles traveling at a speed of 17,000 mph (27,300 kph), allowing the THAAD guidance system to direct interceptor missiles in the direction of the danger.
Admiral Hill says that improving Guam’s missile defenses falls within the Presidential Budget 2023 (PB23) architecture. The US has not started the program to upgrade the island’s defenses but has already laid down the basic architecture for the missile defense systems on the island.
Posted for fair use
eurasiantimes.com

Amid Boiling US-China Tensions, Pentagon To Boost Defenses Of Its 'Most Strategic' Airbase At Guam

The US Missile Defense Agency is undertaking a strenuous exercise of upgrading the defenses of Guam as the long-range missiles of China and North Korea pose a severe threat to the US territory in the Pacific. Sukhoi-34 Fighter ‘Shot Down’ With A Rifle By A Ukrainian Man; Valorous Valeriy...
eurasiantimes.com eurasiantimes.com
 
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk

Professor at @miis, staff at@jamesmartincns
Non-Governmental & Nonprofit Organization Carmel, CAarmscontrolwonk.comJoined March 2009
An image by @planet shows the steam plant at North Korea's reprocessing facility, which separates plutonium for nuclear weapons, is operating. *Sometimes* that indicates the plant is separating plutonium, but @DaveSchmerler and I think probably not *this* time.

Why say anything at all if its nothing? There are many analyses that note the times the steam correlated with a reprocessing campaign. It is equally important to document the times steam DOES NOT correlate with reprocessing. Photo-interpretation is about documenting patterns.

Quick refresher: Yongbyon has a reprocessing plant (aka "Radiochemical Laboratory") to separate plutonium from spent fuel unloaded from a reactor. North Korea uses plutonium to make nuclear weapons. The reprocessing plant relies on steam served from a nearby thermal plant.

Why steam? Reprocessing facilities need heat, which at Yongbyon is supplied by steam. If the reprocessing plant is separating plutonium, then the thermal plant is supplying steam. Japan's Tokai reprocessing plant, FYI, also also uses steam.


Repair works of Tokai Reprocessing Plant|INIS

This is why, when North Korea "disabled" the Yongbyon nuclear complex in 2007 during the Six Party Talks, one of the steps that North Korea took was to "cut two of the four steam lines into the reprocessing facility." No steam, no separating plutonium.
files.ethz.ch/isn/55146/2008… Image

And this is also why @rafaelmgrossi, last summer, pointed to the operation of the steam plant as evidence that North Korea had reprocessed more spent fuel and, presumably, recovered more plutonium for its stockpile of nuclear weapons.


IAEA chief: N.K. shows signs of operating steam plant at plutonium reprocessing facility | Yonhap News Agency By Song Sang-ho SEOUL, March 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has been showing signs of operati... IAEA chief: N.K. shows signs of operating steam plant at plutonium reprocessing facility | Yonhap News Agency

Sometimes, however, the steam plant operates for other reasons. In 2018, the steam plant operated for about a month, which the @iaeaorg concluded was related to some operation other than reprocessing, such as waste consolidation.
iaea.org/sites/default/… Between late-April and earl...

What's waste consolidation at a reprocessing facility, you ask? Boy, do I ever have a paper for you.
inis.iaea.org/collection/NCL… Image

In this case, the crucial difference is duration. It takes several months to reprocess a load of spent fuel. We have a single image of plume on one day. To conclude the plant is producing plutonium again, as it did last summer, require operation of the steam plant over months.

Neither @DaveSchmerler nor I expect the plant to operate for months because North Korea just completed a reprocessing campaign last year. North Korea doesn't have any spent fuel left to separate. The gas-graphite reactor is busy making more, but it won't be ready until next year.

This is, ultimately, a methods thread. To interpret exhaust from the steam plant's stack, we must know both when that exhaust signaled reprocessing and equally all the times it did not. This allows us to observe differences between operations, in this case indicated by duration.

In the past, such an approach was infeasible because Yongbyon might only be imaged every few months. One clear day with exhaust coming out of the stack might be the only picture taken during a reprocessing campaign! Today, though, we have frequent enough imagery to do it right.

• • •
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@ArmsControlWonk: An image by @planet shows the steam plant at North Korea's reprocessing facility, which separates plutonium for nuclear weapons, is operating. *Sometimes* that indicates the plant is separating plu...…
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Russia raises alarm over ‘dangerous’ US-ROK drills, leafleting into North Korea | NK News​


View more articles by Ifang Bremer

4 minutes


Moscow's foreign ministry echoes DPRK's stance as it criticizes exercises for worsening tensions on peninsula
Russia’s foreign ministry expressed concern about ongoing U.S.-South Korea military drills on Wednesday, calling the first-large scale exercises in years “counterproductive and dangerous” in an implicit endorsement of North Korea’s position.
In an official statement, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova also blamed the sending of “propaganda materials” into North Korea for exacerbating tensions, in an apparent reference to balloon launches by South Korean activists that the DPRK has blamed for spreading COVID-19 into the country.
“We are concerned about the situation unfolding on the Korean Peninsula, which has recently escalated in connection with the resumption of large-scale joint military drills conducted by the U.S. and the Republic of Korea, as well as inflammatory distribution of propaganda materials to North Korea from South Korea,” the diplomat said, according to Tass news agency’s translation of the statement.
Moscow’s foreign ministry also calls for a diplomatic solution to “tension” on the peninsula “without the intervention of external forces” and highlights “Russian-Chinese initiatives” to diffuse conflict, likely referring to their endorsement of dialogue and relieving international sanctions on the DPRK.
The U.S. and South Korea began the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercises on Monday, marking the first joint field training exercises of their kind since 2018. The drills are defensive in nature and include practice on how to repel a DPRK invasion and counterattack, according to Seoul and Washington.
North Korean propagandists have condemned the start of the “hostile” drills and called them practice to “invade,” while warning of a “military response.” But higher-level North Korean state media has yet to comment on the exercises.
South Korea’s defense minister warned earlier this month that Pyongyang might conduct “strategic and tactical provocations” timed around the joint drills.
Russia’s condemnation of sending “propaganda” to the North came the same day that prominent North Korean defector-activist Park Sang-hak told NK News that he plans to launch more balloons carrying COVID-19 aid and leaflets toward the DPRK “in the coming days.”
Pyongyang has denounced the balloon launches as a grave provocation for years, and earlier this month, the North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo Jong blamed leaflets for spreading COVID-19 into the country and threatened to retaliate if Seoul allows them to be sent again.
Health experts say it is very unlikely that the COVID-19 virus can spread from the surfaces of objects, but in an interview with Russian media published on Monday, Moscow’s Ambassador to Pyongyang Alexander Matsegora defended the DPRK’s conclusions about the origins of its COVID-19 outbreak and suggested that Seoul make efforts to stop the balloon launches.
Moscow and Pyongyang have recently made calls to bolster ties, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un exchanging letters as their countries face increasing isolation on the international stage. North Korea has also voiced support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in recent months recognized and pledged to send workers to Russian-backed breakaway regions in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Russia raises alarm over ‘dangerous’ US-ROK drills, leafleting into North Korea | NK News
 
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Japan Set to Become One of World’s Biggest Defense Spenders​


Isabel Reynolds

7-8 minutes


Japan is set to approve what could be its biggest increase in defense outlays since the end of the war, putting it on a path to become one of the world’s top military spenders.
In a Defense Ministry budget request for fiscal 2023 expected by the end of August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party is looking to double spending over five years from this year’s 5.4 trillion yen ($39.5 billion). Outlays of that scale could propel Japan from ninth in the world for military spending to a likely third spot behind the US and China, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, which tracks defense spending.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rumblings toward Taiwan and North Korea’s nuclear weapons have raised alarm in Japan and helped build public support for more spending. Those three nuclear-armed countries that neighbor Japan also possess three of the largest militaries in the world with a combined 5.5 million personnel, according to the World Bank. Japan’s military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, has approximately 231,000 personnel.
Beyond just buying pieces of hardware, Japan faces pressure to spend more on less visible items like pay rises, ammunition, spare parts and logistics.
“Probably most people imagine that if we double the defense budget, we will get a whole lot more equipment,” said retired vice-admiral Toshiyuki Ito, now a professor at Kanazawa Institute of Technology. “But it’s not just a question of buying more stuff.”

China has provided a reminder of what’s at stake by firing ballistic missiles that landed near Japan’s southwestern islands during military maneuvers around Taiwan this month. Kishida has warned that Taiwan is at the frontline of the standoff between China and the US and a contingency in the Taiwan Strait would have enormous consequences for Japan.

China’s People’s Liberation Army PLA conducts long-range live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, on Aug. 4.
Photographer: Hong Wei/Xinhua/Getty Images
Japan has traditionally kept its defense budget to about 1% of gross domestic product, relying on the US “nuclear umbrella” to back up its own capabilities under a pacifist constitution. But, in an unusual move, no cap will be placed on expenditure requests at this point, the Mainichi newspaper and other media have reported.
While the initial Defense Ministry request for fiscal 2023 will mark a relatively modest increase to 5.5 trillion yen ($40.2 billion), Kyodo News reported, the final figure is expected to go higher as unspecified costs for about 100 items are finalized.

The ministry is looking at new hardware that includes improved missiles and radar systems that could intercept rockets from China and North Korea -- including hypersonic systems -- and introducing unmanned aerial combat drones, the Yomiuri said. Japan plans to reach an arsenal of about 1,000 missiles that can be fired from ships and planes and reach into North Korea and China, the paper said.
There will be a budget for co-developing a next-generation fighter jet with the UK, the Yomiuri reported.

Stepping Up​


Doubling defense outlays could make Japan the third-largest spender

Source: SIPRI 2021

(China figure based on estimate).

Despite his career in the maritime division of SDF, Ito doesn’t see a need for more warships. Tokyo must improve pay for its troops or it would struggle to find enough pilots even if it expanded its fleet of fighter jets, he added.
If there’s more cash, Ito advocates spending on nontraditional items such as recruiting “white hat” hackers to help protect power networks.
Japan’s SDF has about 16,000 fewer personnel than envisaged in the budget. That shortfall is partly due to a lack of age-appropriate candidates in the world’s most elderly country, but also a parsimonious attitude to pay, according to experts.

“Personnel management and the overall well-being of the Japanese military personnel should take center stage,” said Alessio Patalano, professor of war & strategy in East Asia at Kings College London, who described current SDF pay and support as “just not adequate.”
JAPAN-POLITICS-DEFENCE

Members of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force during a live fire exercise in May 28.
Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
A university graduate joining the forces at officer level gets a salary of about 3.6 million yen ($26,400) in the first year, rising to 6 million by the age of 40, according to the Ministry of Defense. This may be supplemented by allowances for dangerous postings. A US army officer is likely to be on about $62,000 after four years’ experience.
Concerns that Japan may lack staying power if a conflict breaks out should be addressed by building up stockpiles of ammunition, fuel and parts, as well as logistics units, according to Corey Wallace, an assistant professor at Kanagawa University in Yokohama.
For more stories:
Japan has been gradually increasing its defense outlays for the past decade, after a policy U-turn initiated by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when he came to office in 2012.

Plans for a hike have met a positive reaction in opinion polls following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, with about 50% of respondents to a June survey by Jiji Press approving of an increase. Nevertheless, most balked at a doubling the budget in the world’s most heavily indebted country.
That split over the extent of the change could spark a political standoff said Aurelia George Mulgan, a professor specializing in Japanese politics and regional security at the University of New South Wales. She sees a “possible battle down the road” between Kishida and his new Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, who may seek to keep spending under control, and hawks in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Japan Ground Self-Defense Force battle tanks during a live fire exercise in May.
Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
Meanwhile, some warn bolstering defenses may not achieve the results Japan is hoping for, unless it’s accompanied by the right diplomatic and economic policy.
“Japan cannot make itself more secure just by increasing its defense spending,” said Naoko Aoki, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Asia Security Initiative. “Enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities could appear threatening to others in the region, leading them to respond in kind and leaving no one better off than before.”
 
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NATO powers, Quad, Five Eyes, ASEAN—China's rise is forcing nations to unionise​


Swasti Rao

In a reiteration of commitment towards the Indo-Pacific amid a volatile global order, 17 countries, including India, are participating in ‘Pitch Black’, the Royal Australian Air Force’s iconic biennial multinational exercise. While it is one of the several military engagements to reinforce the Indo-Pacific partnership among like-minded countries, Pitch Black 2022 stands out for an unusual display of enthusiasm by two of the European Union’s biggest powers, France and a debutant Germany. Both are participating with impressive military fervour and gusto.
This enthusiasm is hitherto unheard of for a country like Germany, with its deep ties and dependencies on both Russia and China, as is the “unprecedented” involvement of the only European resident Indo-Pacific power, France. The other major non-EU power, the United Kingdom, is anyway a traditional ally of the US world over.

Pitch Black 2022 is a typical war-gaming exercise where threats are simulated in a controlled environment to test force integration, interoperability and readiness. This year it is unfolding in the skies of Northern Australia from 19 August to 9 September. The exercise is hosting about 2,500 personnel and up to 100 aircraft including participants from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, UAE, US and UK. In that sense, it is a convergence of the major NATO powers and partners, the Quad, the Five Eyes, and half of the ASEAN.
First significant development is that Germany, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are participating fully for the first time. Second, with the burgeoning participation of non-resident European powers, the two traditionally disconnected security theatres of Euro Atlantic and Indo Pacific are merging further with converging contours slowly becoming more pronounced.
Also read: Not just Russian oil and gas, China is dividing Europe—from money to metals

Germany’s impressive debut​

One of the many tectonic shifts that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine precipitated in Europe was a reluctant Germany shaken up to face stark realities of its military unpreparedness, lack of a comprehensive security worldview and its asymmetric economic reliance of both Russia and China. When Olaf Scholz, leader of the three-party coalition, became Germany’s Chancellor a few months before the Ukraine War, he had aspired for a futuristic reform process with a goal to make the German economy resilient and play a bigger role in the EU’s prosperity. This aspiration rested on stable energy supplies from Russia as an integral part of the plan.

That said, the current German realisation of looming dangers in Europe appears contradictory because, simply put, it can neither do with Russia or China, nor without them. Hence, Germany’s outreach to the Indo-Pacific is a variable that is directly connected with seeking a more comprehensive security for itself and Europe, but is also operating beyond the constraining Russia-China matrix. The Indo-Pacificregion is crucial to developing new forms of resilient economic cooperation and trusted connections, a bus that Germany doesn’t want to miss.
Scholz has pledged significantly more defence spending on Europe’s security. And to provide a framework for this re-engagement, foreign affairs minister Annalena Baerbock presented the outlines of Germany’s first “National Security Strategy” in March 2022, taken in conjunction with another important document that connected the economic and security interests of Germany and the Indo-Pacific, the German Indo-Pacific Strategy 2020. These two endeavours together explain the journey of Berlin’s strategic engagement with the Indo-Pacific.

From deploying a Brandenburg-class frigate, the Bayern, on a half-year-long mission to the Indo-Pacific to directly follow up on its revamped security policy and now participating in the Pitch Black, Germany has indeed shown some credible commitment. This credibility is further proven by the size of one of the largest peacetime deployments of the German contingent. For the Pitch Black, Germany has sent 13 aircrafts — comprising six Eurofighter jets, three A330 tankers, and four A400M transporters. Called “Rapid Pacific 2022 Deployment”, the aim is to reach Singapore within 24 hours and then quickly deploy to Darwin in Australia’s northern coast.
To all who are listening and reading between the lines, the German Air Force chief said, “We want to demonstrate that we can be in Asia within a day.” Following Pitch Black, the German Air Force fleet will train with the Republic of Singapore Air Force, and sub-fleets will also visit Japan and South Korea.

Does that mean Germany will be touching China’s sore points too? The short answer is ‘No’. Much like the Frigate Bayern that did not touch the contested regions in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Straits, German jets would steer clear of these two regions as well. It is evident that reckless taking a bull by its horn is not in Berlin’s strategic calculus for engaging the Indo-Pacific. Germany’s overtures are aimed at overseas power projections in key strategic locations, especially as tensions are on an all-time high in the Indo-Pacific, and contributing with like-minded partners in preserving an order that it considers most conducive to its own interests and values.
theprint.in

NATO powers, Quad, Five Eyes, ASEAN—China's rise is forcing nations to unionise

Pitch Black 2022, Australian Air Force’s biennial warfare exercise, stands out for an unusual display of enthusiasm by two EU powers, France and Germany.
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Small modular nukes offer Asia energy answers​


David Santoro and Carl Baker

8-11 minutes



Rolls-Royce says its small modular reactor technology is a clean energy solution which can deliver cost competitive and scalable net zero power. Credit: Rolls-Royce.

The increasingly dominant view in the energy expert community is that nuclear power has a role to play in achieving the 17 “sustainable development goals” identified by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015 (and intended to be reached by 2030).
There has thus been rising interest in nuclear power development in several parts of the world, especially in the Indo-Pacific, where growth is the strongest.
This renewed interest comes not long after the failed “nuclear renaissance” of the 2000s. That renaissance never materialized primarily because the devastating accidents at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011 led many countries to reconsider their nuclear power ambitions.
Now, however, national energy and climate objectives are again driving these same countries to put the nuclear option back on the table. This interest has only grown in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the subsequent efforts to choke off Russian natural gas and oil exports, and the resulting increase in global prices for fossil fuels.
Many believe that “small modular reactors” (SMRs) and their companion “floating nuclear power plants” (FNPPs) hold considerable promise and that they may be “the next big thing” in the nuclear power market, even though they are not new concepts—they date back to the 1950s.

To explore this further and, in particular, the implications for the Indo-Pacific, the Pacific Forum recently commissioned three papers: one by Victor Nian that unpacks SMR/FNPP technologies and discusses their applicability in the region; one by Jor-Shan Choi that examines the nuclear safety, security, and safeguards considerations associated with SMRs/FNPPs; and one by Miles Pomper, Ferenc Dalnoki Veress, Dan Zhukov, and Sanjana Gogna that addresses the potential geopolitical implications of SMR/FNPP deployments.
Seven key insights can be teased out from the papers, which are published in a just-released volume on “Small Modular Reactors: The Next Phase for Nuclear Power in the Indo-Pacific.” These insights include the following:

1. SMR/FNPPs have appealing features
SMRs and FNPPs are popular because they are small, mobile, flexible, have user-centric characteristics, and are empowered by the advanced (and safer) Generation IV technologies. What’s more, the advantage of SMRs and FNPPs is that they have the potential to offer cost-competitive and clean energy without the shortcomings associated with traditional large-scale nuclear power plants. SMRs and FNPPs can be easily integrated into national energy planning, especially for newcomer countries with small grid sizes or off-grid/remote communities or for countries that are dependent heavily on energy imports.

2. SMR/FNPP technology is not yet ready, and its prospects are unclear
Most SMR and FNPP designs are still in the research phase or under development. Few are deployed. In the Indo-Pacific, the land- or marine-based reactor types of interest are water-cooled, high-temperature gas, molten salt, or aqueous-fueled. Two reactors are currently deployed in the region: the KLT40S, a pressurized water reactor FNPP developed by OKBM (Russia) and commissioned in Pevek in the Russian far east that is designed to generate 70 megawatts of energy; and the HTR-PM, a high-temperature gas reactor developed by the China Nuclear Engineering Corporation and Institute of Nuclear New Energy Technology that is designed to generate 210 megawatts of energy.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), SMR and FNPP technologies are unlikely to contribute significantly to the expansion of nuclear power in the next decade. If the adoption of such technologies matches the current level of interest, reactor development and deployment will take time to materialize.

3. There is a pathway to the successful utilization of SMRs/FNPPs
There are several factors associated with the successful utilization of SMRs and FNPPs. Advancing them as early as possible in the industrial supply chain is important for proper integration into energy production. Developing industry standards, to ensure compatibility and interoperability with other systems, and adopting and scaling up SMR/FNPP technologies adequately to enjoy the economies of the multiples are also essential. Finally, ensuring “green passage” for transportable SMRs/FNPPs is a key factor in facilitating safe and efficient mobilization of these technologies for nearshore, offshore, and maritime applications.

4. Safety, security and safeguards considerations are a challenge for SMRs/FNPPs
One problem with SMR/FNPP technologies is that they are not devoid of safety, security, and safeguards challenges. SMRs and FNPPs, notably “first-of-a-kind” reactors, have unique features, specific systems, and novel operating conditions, introducing challenges to the established regulatory bodies, potentially leading to safety concerns.
The special features of SMRs and FNPPs, notably their transportability, more flexible siting options to include remote or urban locations, and new fuel designs also present new nuclear security challenges, some possibly more serious than those of large reactors. Moreover, because they use different types of fuel that require new technologies in manufacturing and handling of nuclear materials, some SMRs and FNPPs present unique challenges to IAEA safeguards.
The best way to address these safety, security, and safeguards challenges is to adopt a holistic approach. Such a “3S” approach helps better understand the challenges (and opportunities) associated with SMR and FNPP deployments.

5. SMR/FNPP deployment will happen in a competitive security environment
Nuclear power development has always been intimately linked to geopolitics. There is no reason to think that it will be different this time around, especially given that the security environment is becoming increasingly competitive.
Because Russia has been relentless in its intended nuclear energy (traditional and SMR/FNPP) exports, notably in the Indo-Pacific, and because China looms large over the horizon as a major nuclear exporter in the context of its Belt and Road Initiative, there are fears in Washington that the United States might lag behind (because it has a limited nuclear export industry) and lose potential markets or surrender influence in the region to either Moscow or Beijing, or both. Significantly, a few other regional countries are entering the nuclear export business as well.

6. It isn’t clear (yet) if SMRs/FNPPs will have far-reaching geopolitical implications
Caution is in order, however. The current renewed interest in nuclear power may, as its predecessors, dissipate. Even if it materializes, it will be a very slow process. The United States, then, should keep an eye on key developments and dynamics but not rush into anything.
If Washington wants to help US manufacturers of SMRs and FNPPs gain new markets in the Indo-Pacific, the priority should be Indonesia given Jakarta’s urgent (and massive) need for new power sources. Doing so in the Philippines, Thailand, or Vietnam would only be judicious if these three countries confirm their intentions to pursue nuclear power.
Either way, selling (or failing to sell) US manufactured of SMR and FNPP technologies is unlikely to change radically the recipients’ approach to Washington as a trade or security partner.

7. The United States should ask itself if it benefits from expanding or limiting the nuclear export market
It is an open question whether the United States should focus on competing aggressively to expand the traditional and emerging SMR and FNPP export market (and shape it to its advantage) or if, instead, it should focus on limiting such expansion. Conducting a thorough study on the benefits, costs, and risks of each option would be useful and timely.
This list of key insights is not comprehensive. There is much left to unpack to understand fully the renewed interest in nuclear power and the seemingly high enthusiasm for SMRs and FNPPs, plus the implications for the Indo-Pacific specifically. Our volume’s papers provide preliminary analyses to help jumpstart this research.
David Santoro (david@pacforum.org) and Carl Baker (carl@pacforum.org) are respectively president/CEO and senior advisor at the Pacific Forum. Follow David Santoro on Twitter at @DavidSantoro1.
asiatimes.com

Small modular nukes offer Asia energy answers

The increasingly dominant view in the energy expert community is that nuclear power has a role to play in achieving the 17 “sustainable development goals” identified by the United Nations General A…
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
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TB Fanatic

"Vostok-2022" -Russia: Foreign military arrived to participate in joint military drills​

Which participating countries​

29/08/2022 - 20:22
War News 24 / 7

Military personnel from many countries, including China, have begun arriving in Russia to conduct joint drills, amid tension between the West on the one hand and Moscow and Beijing on the other, the Russian military announced.

These drills, under the name Vostok-2022, will take place from 1 to 7 September in the Russian Far East, with the participation of military personnel from many countries bordering or allied with Russia, such as Belarus, Syria, India and especially China.

These drills are taking place at a time when tensions between Russia and the West are heightened by the war in Ukraine, as well as between the US and China over Taiwan.

Washington is concerned about the possibility of China's further rapprochement with Russia, two countries that already have close defence ties, estimating that this would jeopardise global security.

"Units of foreign soldiers participating in the Vostok-2022 drills arrived at the Sergeevsky training site of Krei Primorsky (of the Russian Far East) and began to prepare and receive their equipment and weapons," the Russian Ministry of Defense announced.

In total "more than 50,000 military personnel, more than 5,000 weapons and military equipment, including 140 aircraft and 60 warships and general support ships" will be mobilized, he explained in his statement.

But the Russian agency did not specify how many countries participate in the drills, which will be conducted under the command of the Russian army general staff and include "training in defensive and offensive actions" on land, air as well as in the Sea of Japan and the Okhotsk Sea.

In the Sea of Japan Russian and Chinese warships will be trained mainly "in the defense of maritime transport" and "in providing support to land forces" in coastal areas.

In mid-August China had confirmed sending troops to Russia to participate in military drills, pointing out that their presence "is in no way connected with the current regional and international situation."

warnews247.gr

«Vostok-2022» -Ρωσία: Έφτασαν ξένοι στρατιωτικοί για να μετάσχουν σε κοινά στρατιωτικά γυμνάσια - WarNews247

Στρατιωτικοί από πολλές χώρες, μεταξύ των οποίων και η Κίνα, έχουν αρχίσει να φτάνουν στη Ρωσία για τη διεξαγωγή κοινών
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jward said:

Apex
@Apex_WW
30s

BBG: The Solomon Islands have put a "moratorium" on all future visits by the U.S. Navy, pending "updates in protocol procedures."
Click to expand...

Apex
@Apex_WW


Gordon G. Chang
@GordonGChang
Aug 29

If #China gets away with this in the #SolomonIslands, it will turn much of the Pacific red. It has infiltrated many island groups, one of them next to #Hawaii.
jward said:
The Associated Press
@AP
5m

Report: US Coast Guard ship denied port call in Solomons
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563213482589581312
View: https://twitter.com/AP/status/1563213482589581312?s=20&t=BlDFOswIQBwT0OgH4rNh-A
Click to expand...
 
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Nathan J Hunt
@ISNJH
9m

So reportedly ROK / U.S. has detected DPRK has moved multiple missiles to launch firing positions for possible salvo test launch in what could be a repeat of the June 4th test of eight short range ballistic missiles that the country fired, also report longer range being readied.
 
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