ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

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TB Fanatic
China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, JUL 26, 2022 - 10:45 AM

China tried to place "a network of informants inside the Federal Reserve system" over the course of a decade, according to a stunning new article out this morning from the Wall Street Journal.

Over 10 years, Fed employees were offered contracts with Chinese talent recruitment programs, often including cash payments, in exchange for providing information on the U.S. economy and interest rate changes, according to an investigation by Republican staff members of the Senate’s Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
The country even threatened to imprison a Fed economist on a trip to Shanghai as apart of their efforts. The economist was detained in 2019, the report says. WSJ notes that it is unclear whether any "sensitive information was compromised", though we're not sure exactly how "sensitive" Fed information is to begin with.

The investigation called it “a sustained effort by China, over more than a decade, to gain influence over the Federal Reserve and a failure by the Federal Reserve to combat this threat effectively."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke out against the report's findings: “Because we understand that some actors aim to exploit any vulnerabilities, our processes, controls, and technology are robust and updated regularly. We respectfully reject any suggestions to the contrary.”

“We take seriously any violations of these robust information security policies,” he continued, according to the report.



A former Fed investigation identified 13 people of interest beginning in 2015. The Congressional investigation relied "heavily" on the Fed's findings for their report. One economist in the Fed system, who was fired for violating rules, was found to be close to a former employee who was alleged to have attempted to recruit members for the espionage network.

That former "expressed a desire to maintain an inside information sharing relationship" and had ties to Chinese government-backed talent recruitment programs.

Another individual once gave "economic modeling code to a Chinese university with ties to the People’s Bank of China," the report says. Though, the Fed is wrong so often, maybe it was a disinformation campaign on our part?

Yet another employee "attempted to transfer large volumes of data from the Fed to an external site on at least two occasions," the Journal wrote.

In a letter to Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, the committee’s top Republican, Jerome Powell wrote that he would be concerned about "any supportable allegation of wrongdoing, whatever the source," before adding: "In contrast, we are deeply troubled by what we believe to be the report’s unfair, unsubstantiated, and unverified insinuations about particular staff members.”

Portman replied that he hoped the investigation “wakes the Fed up to the broad threat from China to our monetary policy."

"The risk is clear,” he wrote.

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China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist | ZeroHedge
 
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Schumer Strips Anti-China Security Provision From Major Semiconductor Bill
Republican senators balk at $250 billion CHIPS Act over China concerns

senators-address-media-after-weekly-policy-luncheons-736x491.jpg

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer / Getty Images Joseph Simonson

Free Beacon
July 26, 2022 5:00 am

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) removed an anti-China security measure from a bill that invests billions of dollars in the U.S. technology sector, a move Republicans say would allow China to benefit from the spending bill and could kneecap the legislation.

At issue are provisions written by Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio) that bar U.S. companies from manufacturing products in China, such as semiconductors, that were developed using federally funded research. Myriad government and private investigations conclude that the Chinese government routinely steals trade secrets from U.S. companies, government agencies, and universities.

Schumer earlier this month removed Portman's provisions from the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act, throwing a wrench into the vote for Republicans who were under the impression it would be included and planned to vote for the bill, according to multiple interviews and internal documents viewed by the Washington Free Beacon.

The reason Schumer removed Portman's anti-China provision is unclear. Some say he caved to lobbying efforts from various interest groups and the White House. The Senate last year passed a version of Portman's measure with bipartisan support, but the House never put it up for a vote.

The removal puts a bipartisan bill that appeared to be headed toward approval in jeopardy. Opponents of the CHIPS Act now include several Republican senators who initially supported the funding for the domestic production of semiconductors. Even if it passes, the lack of meaningful guardrails against the Chinese raise grave questions about whether a bill initially meant to counter China may backfire.

Schumer did not respond to a request for comment.

The CHIPS Act puts a staggering $250 billion for domestic science investment and education, making it the largest domestic industrial investment scheme in U.S. history. But Republicans say the act, prompted by concerns that the United States is losing its technological edge to China on such critical goods as semiconductors, could end up benefiting adversaries.

Senior staffers from six Republican offices in the Senate and House spoke to the Free Beacon on the condition of anonymity to criticize Schumer's decision. In interviews, several expressed bewilderment at the modification while others said they were misled by Senate leadership.

"Legislators are talking about pouring hundreds of billions into industry subsidies and federal R&D, ostensibly to strengthen American competitiveness and to compete with China," one Senate staffer told the Free Beacon. "Spending that level of taxpayer dollars without meaningful safeguards to ensure they don’t end up in Beijing’s hands—either through Chinese Communist Party espionage, corporate malfeasance, or inept bureaucrats—would be a colossal mistake."

Exactly why Portman's measure was removed is a matter of ongoing debate on Capitol Hill. One office blamed Rep. Frank Lucas (R., Okla.), the ranking member on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Two Republican offices pointed the finger at Senate Republican staff tasked with whipping support for the CHIPS Act for failing to communicate that the provision was removed ahead of a procedural vote earlier this month. Another office said the decision to remove the guardrail provision was entirely Schumer's and couldn't be stopped by Republicans.

Guardrail provisions such as the ones in Portman's bill are unpopular with universities with large research departments, as well as some corporations. Universities object for ideological reasons, namely the belief that their research should be enjoyed by everyone around the world. Universities in the last several weeks have been lobbying Republican members including Lucas particularly hard, Republican sources told the Free Beacon.

"Lucas has been turned by the lefty universities," the individual said. "Disappointing that he's going soft on China for them."

One House Republican source called the idea that a single member in the minority party could tank the provision preposterous, and that the negotiations took place entirely in the Senate. A staffer for Lucas on the House Committee on Science and Technology concurred with that characterization.

"The House was shut out of any negotiations after the Senate ended four-corner discussions and then picked up this legislation on their own," said Heather Vaughan, communications director for the House Committee on Science and Technology. "If the Senate can't read their own legislative language ahead of a vote or negotiate effectively with each other, that's simply not within our control."

No matter the explanation, the lack of guardrails means several Senate offices that were potential "Yes" votes on the CHIPS Act are working behind the scenes to tank it. Other senators, such as Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), are pushing for new guardrail provisions.

Rubio on July 22 filed legislation that would, among other things, establish a counterintelligence screening process to "certify that anyone receiving funds under the bill has sufficient protections against government threats." Such guardrails are missing from the CHIPS Act, he said.

"America needs to make things again, especially critical chips and other tech, but we need to do it in a way that benefits our country and our workers," Rubio said. "Unless we add meaningful safeguards in this package, we should call this for what it is: the China Investment Bill."

The Senate is expected to hold a final vote this week on the CHIPS Act. Original supporters of domestic semiconductor funding, including Rubio, are expected to vote against it.

Schumer Strips Anti-China Security Provision From Major Semiconductor Bill (freebeacon.com)
 
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Kim threatens to use nukes amid tensions with US, S. Korea
By HYUNG-JIN KIM

6-7 minutes


SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned he’s ready to use his nuclear weapons in potential military conflicts with the United States and South Korea, state media said Thursday, as he unleashed fiery rhetoric against rivals he says are pushing the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war.

Kim’s speech to war veterans on the 69th anniversary of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War was apparently meant to boost internal unity in the impoverished country amid pandemic-related economic difficulties. While Kim has increasingly threatened his rivals with nuclear weapons, it’s unlikely that he would use them first against the superior militaries of the U.S. and its allies, observers say.
“Our armed forces are completely prepared to respond to any crisis, and our country’s nuclear war deterrent is also ready to mobilize its absolute power dutifully, exactly and swiftly in accordance with its mission,” Kim said in Wednesday’s speech, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.

He accused the United States of “demonizing” North Korea to justify its hostile policies. Kim said regular U.S.-South Korea military drills that he claimed target the North highlight U.S. “double standards” and “gangster-like” aspects because it brands North Korea’s routine military activities — an apparent reference to its missile tests — as provocations or threats.
Kim also alleged the new South Korean government of President Yoon Suk Yeol is led by “confrontation maniacs” and “gangsters” who have gone further than previous South Korean conservative governments. Since taking office in May, the Yoon government has moved to strengthen Seoul’s military alliance with the United States and bolster its own capacity to neutralize North Korean nuclear threats including a preemptive strike capability.

“Talking about military action against our nation, which possesses absolute weapons that they fear the most, is preposterous and is very dangerous suicidal action,” Kim said. “Such a dangerous attempt will be immediately punished by our powerful strength and the Yoon Suk Yeol government and his military will be annihilated.”
South Korea expressed “deep regret” over Kim’s threat and said it maintains a readiness to cope with any provocation by North Korea in “a powerful, effective manner.”

In a statement read by spokesperson Kang In-sun, Yoon’s presidential national security office said South Korea will safeguard its national security and citizens’ safety based on a solid alliance with the United States. It urged North Korea to return to talks to take steps toward denuclearization.
Earlier Thursday, South Korea’s Defense Ministry repeated its earlier position that it’s been boosting its military capacity and joint defense posture with the United States to cope with escalating North Korean nuclear threats.
In April, Kim said North Korea could preemptively use nuclear weapons if threatened, saying they would “never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent.” Kim’s military has also test-launched nuclear-capable missiles that place both the U.S. mainland and South Korea within striking distance. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly said in the past few months that North Korea is ready to conduct its first nuclear test in five years.

Kim is seeking greater public support as his country’s economy has been battered by pandemic-related border shutdowns, U.S.-led sanctions and his own mismanagement. In May, North Korea also admitted to its first COVID-19 outbreak, though the scale of illness and death is widely disputed in a country that lacks the modern medical capacity to handle it.
“Kim’s rhetoric inflates external threats to justify his militarily focused and economically struggling regime,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are in violation of international law, but Kim tries to depict his destabilizing arms buildup as a righteous effort at self-defense.”
Experts say North Korea will likely intensify its threats against the U.S. and South Korea as the allies prepare to expand summertime exercises. In recent years, the South Korean and U.S. militaries have canceled or downsized some of their regular exercises due to concerns about COVID-19 and to support now-stalled U.S.-led diplomacy aimed at convincing North Korea to give up its nuclear program in return for economic and political benefits.
During Wednesday’s speech, Kim said his government recently set tasks to improve its military capability more speedily to respond to military pressure campaigns by its enemies, suggesting that he intends to go ahead with an expected nuclear test.

But Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said North Korea won’t likely conduct its nuclear test before China, its major ally and biggest aid benefactor, holds its Communist Party convention in the autumn. He said China worries that a North Korean nuclear test could give the United States a justification to boost its security partnerships with its allies that it could use to check Chinese influence in the region.
North Korea recently said it is moving to overcome the COVID-19 outbreak amid plummeting fever cases, but experts say it’s unclear if the country can lift its strict restrictions soon because it could face a viral resurgence later this year. During Wednesday’s event, Kim, veterans and others didn’t wear masks, state media photos showed. On Thursday, North Korea reported 11 fever cases, a huge drop from the peak of about 400,000 a day in May.

North Korea has rejected U.S. and South Korean offers for medical relief items. It has also said it won’t return to talks with the United States unless it first abandons its hostile polices on the North, in an apparent reference to U.S.-led sanctions and U.S.-South Korean military drills.
apnews.com

Kim threatens to use nukes amid tensions with US, S. Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has warned he’s ready to use his nuclear weapons in potential military conflicts with the United States and South Korea.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
M

mecoastie

Veteran Member
Pinecone said:
One of these days, the little turd just may do more than flap his gums.
Click to expand...

He is China's attack dog. He would make a great distraction from Taiwan. Get him to attack South Korea and pull all the US and allied forces away from Taiwan to defend SK. The problem is once off leash they may not be able to control him. When he goes nuclear on SK and Japan, they will respond in kind and we are off to the races. And he will go nuclear as those weapons would be a top priority target for everyone and for him it is use or lose.
 
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North Korea’s Kim says ‘ready to mobilise’ nuclear weapons

AFP
July 28, 2022 6:10 am



North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country was “ready to mobilise” its nuclear deterrent in any future military clash with the United States and South Korea, state media said Thursday.
Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that Pyongyang is preparing to carry out its seventh nuclear test — a move that the United States has warned would provoke a “swift and forceful” response.
In Kim’s latest speech to mark the armistice that ended fighting in the Korean War — known as “Victory Day” in the North — he said the country’s armed forces were “thoroughly prepared” for any crisis.
“Our country’s nuclear war deterrent is also ready to mobilise its absolute power faithfully, accurately and promptly in accordance with its mission,” Kim said in a speech on Wednesday, according to Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency.
Speaking to war veterans on the 69th anniversary of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, Kim emphasised the country’s “thorough readiness” to “deal with any military clash with the United States”.

His latest threats come as South Korea and the United States move to ramp up joint military exercises, which have always infuriated the North as Pyongyang considers them rehearsals for invasion.
This week, the US military held live-fire drills using its advanced Apache helicopters stationed in the South for the first time since 2019.
Kim also slammed South Korea’s new, hawkish president Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May and has vowed to take a tougher stance against Pyongyang — which includes a plan to mobilise a preemptive strike capability.
“Talking about military action against our nation, which possess absolute weapons that they fear the most, is preposterous and is very dangerous self-destructive action,” Kim said of the Yoon administration, which he branded a group of “gangsters”.
“Such a dangerous attempt will be immediately punished by our powerful strength and the Yoon Suk Yeol government and his military will be annihilated.”

‘Righteous effort’
The North has carried out a record-breaking blitz of sanctions-busting weapons tests this year, including firing an intercontinental ballistic missile at full range for the first time since 2017.
Nuclear talks between Pyongyang and Washington have been stalled since a summit between Kim and then-US president Donald Trump in February 2019 broke down over sanctions relief and what the North would be willing to give up in return.
The Kim regime has since rejected Washington and Seoul’s repeated offers to resume talks, claiming the United States must first drop its “hostile” policies.

Impoverished Pyongyang has long struggled to feed its people and its economy has been battered by pandemic-led border closures as well as sanctions over its nuclear programmes.
The country has also been battling a massive outbreak of “fever” after it confirmed its first cases of Covid-19 in May.
“Kim’s rhetoric inflates external threats to justify his militarily focused and economically struggling regime,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
“North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are in violation of international law, but Kim tries to depict his destabilising arms buildup as a righteous effort at self-defense.”
insiderpaper.com

North Korea's Kim says 'ready to mobilise' nuclear weapons

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country was "ready to mobilise" its nuclear deterrent in any future military clash with the United States and
insiderpaper.com insiderpaper.com
 
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Accidental nuclear war with China a ‘growing risk’

Daniel Martin, Nick Gutteridge, Rozina Sabur - Wednesday

Sir Stephen Lovegrove said Britain had “clear concerns” that Beijing was expanding and modernising its nuclear arsenal, adding that China’s “disdain” for arms control agreements was a “daunting prospect”.

In a hardening of the UK position, Sir Stephen warned that the world may no longer have the Cold War safeguards that prevented nuclear war with the USSR and raised the prospect of an “uncontrolled conflict” between China and the West.

He said the world was entering a “dangerous new age of proliferation”, with threats from genetic weapons, space-based systems and lasers.

“We should be honest – strategic stability is at risk,” Sir Stephen said in a speech at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “We need to start thinking about the new security order.”

It came as Liz Truss warned of the “malign influence” of China as she unveiled plans to build closer ties among the 56 “freedom-loving” Commonwealth nations.

The Tory leadership contender’s plan, announced as the Commonwealth Games get under way in Birmingham on Thursday, would fast-track the signing of trade deals between member states.

“As one of the largest groups of freedom-loving democracies, we must ensure there are clear benefits to remaining a member of the Commonwealth and offer nations a clear alternative to growing malign influence from Beijing,” she said.

Meanwhile, a leaked paper cast doubt on her Tory rival Rishi Sunak’s claims to be a China hawk. The Treasury document showed he was close to signing a new economic agreement with Beijing earlier this year to make the UK the “market of choice” for Chinese companies.

Mr Sunak has significantly hardened his line on China, describing it as the “biggest threat” facing the UK and vowing to ban Confucius Institutes at British universities. He hit back at Ms Truss, highlighting comments she made while environment secretary in 2016 that relations with Beijing were “entering a golden era”.

Joe Biden, the US president, is set to confront Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, over Taiwan on Thursday in the pair’s first direct talks since March.

Concerns are growing in Washington that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have persuaded Mr Xi to try to seize Taiwan sooner than previously estimated

In his speech, Sir Stephen warned that China could plunge the world into conflict through the development of hybrid weapons as well as nuclear.

“During the Cold War, we benefited from a series of negotiations and dialogues that improved our understanding of Soviet doctrine and capabilities, and vice-versa,” he said.

“This gave us both a higher level of confidence that we would not miscalculate our way into nuclear war. Today, we do not have the same foundations with others who may threaten us in the future – particularly with China.”

Sir Stephen said that, in the modern world, there was a “much broader range of strategic risks and pathways to escalation”.

“These are all exacerbated by Russia’s repeated violations of its treaty commitments, and the pace and scale with which China is expanding its nuclear and conventional arsenals and the disdain it has shown for engaging with any arms control agreements,” he added.

Sir Stephen cited experts who warned of “escalation wormholes – sudden, unpredictable failures in the fabric of deterrence causing rapid escalation to strategic conflict”.

He said: “Moreover, the Cold War’s two monolithic blocs of the USSR and Nato, though not without alarming bumps, were able to reach a shared understanding of doctrine that is today absent.

“Doctrine is opaque in Moscow and Beijing, let alone Pyongyang or Tehran. So the question is how we reset strategic stability for the new era, finding a balance amongst unprecedented complexity so there can be no collapse into uncontrolled conflict.”

Sir Stephen warned of the danger that existing nuclear states were investing in novel nuclear technologies and developing new “warfighting”’ nuclear systems, which they are integrating into their military strategies and political rhetoric to seek to “coerce others”.

“For example, we have clear concerns about China’s nuclear modernisation programme that will increase both the number and types of nuclear weapon systems in its arsenal,” he said. “Combined, this is a daunting prospect.”

He called for the lines of communication to be kept open with adversaries, drawing on a quote from Sir Winston Churchill as he said: “We want jaw-jaw, not war-war.”

The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China has 350 nuclear warheads, compared with Russia’s 6,257 and America’s 5,600.

But in its latest assessment of China’s military capabilities, the US department of defense forecasts that it will have roughly tripled its current stock of nuclear warheads to 1,000 by 2030.

China is also reported to be building at least 250 new missile silos in the north-west of the country.

US officials have framed the planned talks between Mr Xi and Mr Biden as part of an effort to maintain open lines of communication to ensure that US-China relations do not veer into unintended conflict.

Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, is set to visit Taiwan next month, but the US military has expressed concern that her trip could trigger a violent response from Beijing, which claims the self-governed island as a breakaway province.

The US does not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent country under Washington’s “one China” policy.

“If the US insists on going its own way and challenging China’s bottom line, it will surely be met with forceful responses,” Zhao Lijian, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, said on Wednesday. “All ensuing consequences shall be borne by the US.”

Earlier this year, Beijing said it would continue to “modernise its nuclear arsenal for reliability and safety issues”. It has not signed or ratified the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, which was agreed by 86 states in 2017. Neither the UK nor the US has signed the treaty.

Last month, Nicholas Burns, America’s ambassador to Beijing, said US-China relations had deteriorated to probably “the lowest moment” since diplomatic relations resumed in 1972.

Beijing has become increasingly aggressive on the world stage since Mr Xi came to power in 2013, alarming the West in particular with its military buildup in disputed areas of the South China Sea. China claims sovereignty over more than 100 disputed bits of land in the sea.

In 2016, the UN-backed permanent court of arbitration in the Hague ruled in favour of a complaint from the Philippines over China’s claims, saying that Beijing “had no historic rights to resources in the waters of the South China Sea.” China has refused to accept the verdict.

Beijing has poured £50 billion a year into its Belt and Road initiative over the last decade, funding building projects in 144 countries, largely through loans. There have been growing concerns that it is using the arrangement to gain a stranglehold over those nations by effectively owning their key infrastructure.

While much of the funding has been targeted at developing countries, especially in Africa, six EU members have also received cash injections.

China’s buying up of European ports, including Piraeus in Athens and Genoa and Trieste in northern Italy, has sparked Nato security concerns.

Video and photos at source
Posted for fair use

MSN

www.msn.com
 
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Building Asymmetric Advantage in Indo-Pacific Part of DOD Approach to Chinese Aggression
BY C. Todd Lopez

7-9 minutes


In the Indo-Pacific region, Chinese aggression demonstrates an effort by Beijing to deconstruct core elements of the international rules-based order and assert greater control over the waterways that connect it with its neighbors, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs said.
Last month, for instance, a Chinese fighter aircraft cut across the nose of an Australian aircraft which was conducting legal operations over the South China Sea. The Chinese aircraft released chaff that was sucked into the engine of the Australian aircraft, said Ely Ratner, who spoke at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Chaff" consists of fragments of aluminum, or another material, released from an aircraft as a radar countermeasure.
That incident, Ratner said, came shortly after another series of incidents where Chinese aircraft unsafely intercepted Canadian aircraft who were also conducting legal activities on behalf of the U.N. Security Council over the East China Sea.

Another incident, he said, involved a Chinese naval vessel endangering another Australian aircraft by aiming a laser at it.
"These are not isolated incidents," Ratner said. "Over the last five years, the number of unsafe PLA [People's Liberation Army] intercepts, including U.S. allies and partners operating lawfully in international airspace in the South China Sea has increased dramatically with dozens of dangerous events in the first half of this year alone. In my view, this aggressive and irresponsible behavior represents one of the most significant threats to peace and stability in the region today, including in the South China Sea."

Ratner said if the Chinese military continues that unsafe behavior, in short time, it might cause a major incident or accident in the region. Chinese actions, he said, are part of an effort by Beijing to systematically test the limits of U.S. and partner resolve and to advance a new status quo in the South China Sea that disregards existing commitments to a respect for sovereignty, peaceful resolution of disputes and adherence to international law.
"What this demands of us is that we demonstrate the will and capability to properly deter PRC aggression," he said.
The Defense Department has a strategy, Ratner said, which is aimed at ensuring the U.S., its partners and allies can continue to enjoy a free and open Indo-Pacific region where both international law and national sovereignty are respected.
Building asymmetric advantages for U.S. partners

Building a combat-credible forward presence in the Indo-Pacific

Enabling the most capable of U.S. partners in the region
"Without question, bolstering our partners' self-defense capabilities in the South China Sea, and across the region, is a task of foremost importance for the Defense Department," Ratner said. "DOD is taking an increasingly proactive approach in looking at new options to support these efforts."
Underlying that approach, he said, is an understanding that deterrence doesn't mean matching competitors' capabilities directly.

"We've seen reminders in Ukraine that smaller nations can outmaneuver larger aggressors through smart investments in self-defense technologies, anti-aircraft weapons and other anti-access/denial capabilities," he said.
Information can also be as powerful a tool as hardware, he said. And to that end the Defense Department is providing better support to partner intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities and rethinking how it manages and shares information.

"We're doubling down on our efforts to build a common operating picture with our partners that will allow them to better detect and counter illicit activities in their territorial waters," he said. "Our new Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness ... which we launched at the Quad Leaders Summit in May, is just one way that we're doing so."
The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, he said, will allow the U.S. to share near-real-time satellite data with partners.
Building a more combat-credible forward presence in the Indo-Pacific, Ratner said, means a focus on day-to-day campaigning, and the harnessing of new capabilities, operational concepts, and combined warfighting development with allies to complicate competitor military preparations.
"We're building a more dynamic presence in the region," he said. "In practice, this means we're operating forward and more flexibly, including through a regular tempo of rotational activities."

As examples, he said, last fall, two U.S. carrier strike groups were joined by a Japanese helicopter destroyer and a U.K. carrier strike group to conduct multilateral, multicarrier operations in the Philippine Sea.
"When the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group rotated through the Indian Ocean and ultimately the South China Sea last spring, we conducted multidomain operations with the Indian navy and air force that integrated air, anti-submarine and command and control elements," he said.
Across the Indo-Pacific, Ratner said, the U.S. military has been increasing the complexity, jointness, duration and scale of combined exercises with allies.
"As we continue to shore up our position in the region, we will not relent in our commitment to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows to ensure that all nations are able to exercise this right," he said.

Another of the department's effort to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region, Ratner said, is better enabling the U.S.'s more capable partners and allies in the region.
"The United States' ability to pursue common security and economic goals with like-minded nations is the cornerstone of our success and at the root of our strategy," he said. "For the U.S. military specifically, our defense relationships and our ability to bind them more tightly together into more deeply interoperable coalitions can make clear the costs of aggression."
U.S. alliances with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand, for instance, remain at the center DOD's approach here, he said.

During a recent trip to Thailand, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and his counterparts there discussed opportunities to expand bilateral training and exercises, including the establishment of a working group on reciprocal access, Ratner said.
The U.S. is also working with the Philippines to develop new bilateral defense guidelines to clarify respective roles, missions and capabilities within the framework of the U.S. and Philippines' alliance, Ratner said. Already, he said, the U.S. and the Philippines participate together in more than 300 exercises and military to military activities annually.
"We do not seek confrontation or conflict," Ratner said. "We say that publicly, we say that privately. Our primary interest is in upholding the order that has for decades sustained the region's peace. And while we will always stand ready to prevail in conflict, it is the primary responsibility of the Department of Defense to prevent it and deterrence is the cornerstone of our strategy."
www.defense.gov

Building Asymmetric Advantage in Indo-Pacific Part of DOD Approach to Chinese Aggression

The Defense Department's goal is aimed at ensuring the U.S., its partners and allies can continue to enjoy a free and open Indo-Pacific region where both international law and national sovereignty are
www.defense.gov
 
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U.S. delays Minuteman III missile test amid tensions over Taiwan - WSJ


2 minutes


(Reuters) -The Biden administration postponed a routine test launch of an Air Force Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing amid China's show of force near Taiwan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Delays Minuteman III Missile Test Amid Tensions Over Taiwan citing U.S. officials.

The U.S. Air Force had planned to conduct the test launch this week from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the report added.

U.S. officials didn't define how long the delay would last, but one said it might last 10 days, the Journal reported.

China deployed scores of planes and fired live missiles near Taiwan in a show of force in the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, a day after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a trip to the self-ruled island.
Related video: Kim Jong-un threatens to use nuclear weapons amid tensions with US and South Korea (The Independent)

Pentagon officials couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

In April, the U.S. military canceled a test of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. That delay had aimed to lower nuclear tensions with Russia during the war in Ukraine.

(Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Bengaluru)
Microsoft may earn an Affiliate Commission if you purchase something through recommended links in this article
 
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Pelosi gets lukewarm welcome in South Korea
Andrew Salmon

10-13 minutes




SEOUL – US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, having ignited a military and diplomatic firestorm with her trip to Taiwan, was offered a reception in South Korea that might best be described as cool.
Pelosi flew into the country with her delegation on late Wednesday (August 3), and her schedule today (August 4) included talks and a visit to the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that separates the two Koreas.
But President Yoon Suk-yeol, who is on vacation this week, (albeit, at his home in Seoul) did not meet with the senior US politician, though he did hold a 40-minute telephone conversation with her. Foreign Minister Park Jin also did not meet her: He is on a trip to ASEAN.

Pelosi did hold talks with her South Korean counterpart, National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo. The two discussed North Korea, the Indo-Pacific, economic cooperation and climate change, but reportedly did not reference Taiwan. Nor did they take questions from reporters.
Pelosi tweeted images of herself in the US Ambassadorial residence in Seoul, which is designed in neo-traditional Korean style, and of her and her delegation meeting a Korean honor guard dressed in traditional regalia.
Some said it was normal that Pelosi and accompanying US lawmakers were not greeted by more senior officials.
“Isn’t it natural?” Moon Chung-in, an academic and advisor to past Korean presidents, asked Asia Times. “The speaker of the US is not the president she is the speaker of the US, therefore, we should treat her as such.”
In fact, though, South Korea is the only leg of Pelosi’s Asia tour where she was not granted a meeting with the national leader.
In Singapore, she met Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in Malaysia she met Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and in Taipei she met President Tsai Ing-wen. And – at least according to Japanese media reports – she will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Friday in Tokyo, the last stop of her highly watched Asian jaunt.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (L) waving beside Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, August 3, 2022. Photo: Handout
Moreover, South Korea – unlike Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan – enjoys a security alliance with the US, which includes the stationing of some 28,000 GIs on Korean soil.
Given the lavish welcomes customarily offered to senior US political figures, accompanied by cliché-ridden talk of the two countries’ “iron clad” alliance that is “ready to fight tonight,” the lack of a high-level welcome was widely noted in local media.
Korea’s best-selling daily, The Chosun Ilbo, reported on allegations of “protocol negligence”, pointing out that not a single Korean official was on hand to greet her aircraft and citing rumors that there was anger in the US embassy at the perceived snub.

Conservative National Assemblyman Ha Tae-kyung told the Chosun, “Imagine that our speaker of the National Assembly arrives in the US and no one comes to meet him? It is desirable to hold a meeting for the national interest, even when the president is on vacation.”
“I respect President Yoon’s privacy and he has a right to have a vacation in the middle of this hot summer but the presidential behavior is a deliberate message,” Lim Eun-jung, who teaches international relations at Kongju University told Asia Times. “It been almost 20 years since the last visit of an American speaker of the house and this means we should have been more active to deal with this special visit.”
Even so, given China’s current fury, and its position as the “giant next door” to South Korea, Yoon’s in-the-bunker response to Pelosi’s visit might be considered prudent.
According to Yonhap news agency, the president’s secretary for international relations Choi Young-bum, when asked why there was no in-person meeting between Yoon and Pelosi, simply said, “Everything is decided in consideration of national interest.”
Perhaps it was unlucky that Korea was the stop on Pelosi’s agenda that immediately followed her trip to Taiwan – a trip that was not confirmed until it actually took place. Inevitably, her Korean visit is being massively overshadowed by developments around the island.

A furious China is now conducting live-fire drills in waters around the island, a move that some see as a de facto blockade or even siege. It has also put both its operational aircraft carriers to sea.
Meanwhile, two US carrier groups are at sea to the southwest and northeast of Taiwan: one in waters near the Philippines, one off of Okinawa.
These traumatic stresses to the delicate status quo are unlikely to be commended by many in Seoul.
“Whether you are a conservative or a progressive, peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is in our best national interest,” Moon, who is currently a professor emeritus at Seoul’s Yonsei University, said. “What kind of benefit can there be for us if there is a clash between China and the US over Taiwan?”
For decades, South Korea’s security alliance with the US was a boon to the Asian partner. It deterred North Korea while saving Seoul untold billions that would have otherwise been spent on domestic defense and gave South Korean troops access to the latest US kit and methodologies.

US and South Korean soldiers in Yeoncheon-gun, South Korea. Decades of close interoperability with US forces is now paying dividend sfor the South Korean defense industry. Photo: AFP / Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images
It also provided a credible aegis for economic development by underwriting both foreign direct investment and sovereign credit ratings. But in recent years, certain doubts about the relationship have cropped up.
While Seoul and Washington remain staunchly aligned against North Korea, South Korea is increasingly being placed in difficult positions as the regional and global rivalry between Beijing and Washington heats up in multiple spheres – security, diplomacy, trade and technology.
Seoul is never comfortable antagonizing neighboring China, which some believe exerts influence over North Korea, is an increasingly assertive player in regional affairs and is also South Korea’s leading trade partner.
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1992 establishment of diplomatic relations between Seoul and Beijing. That tie-up was enabled by multiple events: the collapse of Eastern European communism and the relations forged with communist and ex-communist countries as a result of the 1988 Seoul Olympic Games, which represented a “coming out” party for the newly prosperous nation.

But the haste with which Seoul recognized Beijing surprised and shocked Taipei – previously, a regional anti-communist partner aligned against China, which had fought against South Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War.
It was not just a high-profile diplomatic defeat for Taipei, it was a humiliation as the landmark embassy in downtown Seoul was handed over to Beijing. For years, relations remained cool: In 1992 both national flag carriers ceased direct flights, a situation that would only change in 2004.
South Korea – which officially backs Beijing’s “One China” policy – has historically been loath to take any other stance on the Taiwan issue.
And even though Yoon, who took office in May, has made clear that he will break the habit of past Korean presidents by preaching the benefits of democracy and human rights in global fora, he has refrained from any criticism of China.
Given this history of caution, there are plenty of critics of Pelosi’s incendiary visit to Taiwan – and, indeed, of aggressive American policy toward Beijing that threatens to drag South Korea into a confrontation it wants no part of.
The left-leaning Hankyoreh newspaper editorialized today: “A crisis in the Taiwan Strait is not something Koreans can afford to watch with idle curiosity. Amid growing conflict between the US and China and closer ties between China and North Korea, there are growing fears that the North Korean nuclear issue will get worse and that the Korean Peninsula will become entangled in conflict.”

And it is not just in the security sphere where issues are simmering.
Washington expects a response from South Korea by the end of this month as to whether it will join the “Fab 4” semiconductor alliance. That body seeks to unite Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the US in a stable supply chain of the highly strategic products.
China, obviously, is not invited in the US-led initiative. Even staunchly pro-American Foreign Minister Park – who formerly headed up a Korean-American friendship group – admitted to foreign reporters last month that it would be a difficult decision to take, given how closely interlinked domestic supply chains are with China.
And even though South Korean memory chipmaker SK hynix last month announced a US$22 billion investment in the US, Washington has pressured the firm not to export advanced chip-making machinery made by Dutch firm ASML to its fabs in China.
Moreover, South Korean chipmakers are reportedly mulling the implications of the US CHIPS and Science act, which could negatively impact their Chinese investments.
Samsung may or may not join the US-led ‘Fab-4’ chip initiative. Image: Twitter
“I hope the US will be much more cautious,” said Moon. “There are US and South Korean national interests and common interests between the US and South Korea, so we should maximize common interests with sensible diplomacy.”
South Korea’s position toward Taiwan is rather less florid than that of Japan, where Pelosi is expected to meet Kishida on Friday.
There are many figures in Tokyo who recall with satisfaction the generally amicable colonial rule they instituted in Taiwan, and who now consider Taipei the friendliest capital to Japan in the region – given the militaristic hostility of Pyongyang, the often-strained ties with Beijing and the prickly relationship with Seoul.
A number of these figures – most prominently, the recently murdered former prime minister and senior party figure, Shinzo Abe – have agitated, so far unsuccessfully, for Tokyo to adopt a stance on the possible defense of Taiwan.
There are no such figures in South Korea. On the contrary, some in this trade-dependent nation are deeply concerned about the ongoing bifurcation in regional and global relations.
“We should go back to multilateralism in trade and economics and evoke a multinational security regime in Northeast Asia,” Moon said. “Our US alliance is good but it is not the best choice: We need a regional security architecture.”
Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul

Pelosi gets lukewarm welcome in South Korea
 
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Will China attack Taiwan this fall?

With CCP's economy failing, military adventurism may be Xi's next best bet
By Brandon J. Weichert - - Thursday, August 4, 2022
Washington Times

OPINION:

Earlier this year, a Russian intelligence analyst leaked a classified conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping wherein Mr. Xi told Mr. Putin that China had been planning to invade Taiwan in the fall of 2022. The Russian intelligence analyst leaked this information to the private Western intelligence firm known as Bellingcat, which then disseminated that intelligence to the Western press.

About a month after that supposed conversation, Mr. Putin ordered the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has torn Europe apart and has kept the world on the brink of nuclear, war. Many observers believe that the shambolic Russian invasion of Ukraine has dissuaded Mr. Xi‘s regime from launching the planned invasion of Taiwan.

I disagree. I am concerned the Chinese leadership under Mr. Xi is looking for an excuse to launch an attack of some kind against Taiwan, whether it be a naval blockade or an invasion, by the fall of this year. Far from convincing Mr. Xi an attack or blockade of Taiwan is off-the-table due to how poorly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has gone, the protracted Russo-Ukraine War may be just what Mr. Xi needs to reaffirm his loosening grip on power.

Since the Second World War, the United States has enjoyed its status as the unofficial “arsenal of democracy.” This was a concept that can be traced back to former President Franklin D. Roosevelt, a man many political scientists believe to have been the father of the modern U.S. government. Roosevelt’s notion was that the United States, with its vast mineral wealth and industrial capabilities, could produce the weapons that the world’s threatened democracies would need to defend themselves from rapacious dictators.

Roosevelt understood that because the United States’ geographic location isolated it from being directly threatened by those rapacious dictators. Yet, he accurately assessed allowing for threats to fester; by turning our backs on regimes that may share our interests and even our values, the U.S. was made less safe. Selling arms and providing training for the regimes that were friendly to America without directly involving U.S. military personnel, Roosevelt believed, was the best solution for securing America without courting a direct war.

This all makes sense. On paper. Presidents of both political parties — including Donald Trump — acted in accordance with the “arsenal of democracy” model that Roosevelt created more than 80 years ago. Yet, what so few have clearly realized is that the arsenal of democracy is predicated upon America possessing a robust industrial capability within its borders. Since the 1970s, American manufacturing has been on the decline whereas the manufacturing capabilities of rival countries, notably China, have been on the rise. Therefore, the American capacity for serving as the arsenal of democracy is limited to what reduced industrial output can be maintained. Until recently, this was not a concern; Washington was able to have its proverbial cake and eat it. This was partly because the U.S. was not fighting a near-peer competitor, such as Russia or China. It was also because, until the last decade, the U.S. was the undisputed global superpower whose only real challenges came from terrorist organizations and rogue states.

Ukraine has changed this reality. As has COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns that occurred in response to the pandemic. In Ukraine today, the limits of America’s arsenal of democracy are being tested. Critical weapons systems — such as the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System — that have proven decisive for Ukraine in its defense and devastating to Russia’s invasion are being depleted at a faster rate than what America’s ailing industrial capacity can replace. The more finite military resources the U.S. pours into Ukraine to fight Russia, and the longer that Moscow refuses to surrender or seek a negotiated settlement ending hostilities, the less available key American weapon systems will be for other military crises, such as a Chinese military attack on Taiwan.

In fact, many of the U.S. weapon systems that are being used in Ukraine are systems that Taiwan will need to defend against any Chinese attack. Beijing is aware of these facts. What’s more, China has been watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine closely. Beijing’s war planners are aware of mistakes Moscow has made in Ukraine and they are learning from those mistakes.

And it’s not as if Mr. Xi is sitting pretty. After all, Mr. Xi has presided over a wildly unpopular COVID-19 response and has overseen the collapse of China’s real estate sector, sending China’s economy heading in the wrong direction. In China’s system, absolute political power is given to the Chinese Communist Party largely because the CCP promises the Chinese people it can deliver economic prosperity. Under Mr. Xi, that promise is fading — and rivals within the CCP are clamoring to remove Mr. Xi from his place as leader. What better way, then, for Mr. Xi to put his rivals on their heels and shore up political support than by appealing to the flag with a war against what many Chinese view as the “rebellious province” of Taiwan?

Further, the next CCP People’s Congress is tentatively scheduled for this fall in China. At this meeting, it is believed that Mr. Xi will seek a new term as president, meaning he would become the longest-reigning ruler of the CCP since Mao stalked the Earth.

For Mr. Xi to have a chance, though, he must prove that he is still capable of leading the country. With the economy failing, military adventurism may be his next best bet. And with President Biden’s days in the White House dwindling down, as it appears that Mr. Biden will be replaced by a much stronger successor in 2024, Mr. Xi may believe 2022 is his best — only — chance to restore Chinese rule over Taiwan.

The only question is what will Mr. Biden do when the Chinese attack comes?

• Brandon J. Weichert is a geopolitical analyst who runs The Weichert Report: World News Done Right. He is the author of “Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower” (Republic Book Publishers). He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Will China attack Taiwan this fall? - Washington Times
 
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China could resume cargo trains, trucks to N. Korea this month:

RFA Updated: 2022-08-07 17:55:45 KST

It looks like China is about to start sending goods into North Korea again, now a few months since they cut off trade because of COVID-19 as the North's economy continues to struggle.

Citing traders based in the Chinese city of Dandong, Radio Free Asia says freight trains could start running as soon as Tuesday from Dandong to the North Korean city of Sinuiju.

The service had been suspended since late April following the spread of COVID-19 in the city.
Cargo trucks are also preparing to head back, though they may need more time.

RFA says it acquired a notice from the Dandong customs office to Chinese logistics companies saying they'll soon start resuming inspections.

It'll take time for companies to reroute their trucks, though, so they might not start going to North Korea again until late this month.

Reporter : yjsong@arirang.com
 
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BREAKING: North Korean TV airs video and audio of the leader’s sister Kim Yo Jong giving a speech for the first time. The audience is shown crying as she says Kim Jong Un had a fever during the COVID-19 outbreak and as she threatens South Korean authorities with "extermination"

The KCTV broadcast Thursday afternoon cut to soldiers in the crowd as she warned the "little South Korean authorities" of a "strong revenge response" if they continue "dangerous shit that could introduce the virus into our country," and showed the crowd cheering after the remarks
RT 1min
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557599558896472067
View: https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1557599558896472067?s=20&t=zqmiDW9pJO6LmEfm-Vf8SA
 
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US-China rivalry dividing the world in two
ManMohan S Sodhi, Christopher S Tang

10-12 minutes




Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has elicited a strong response from China: days of simulated attack on Taiwan with further drills announced, plus a withdrawal from critical ongoing conversations with the US on climate change and the military.
This strong reaction was predictable. President Xi had earlier warned President Biden not “to play with fire.” Of course, if Pelosi’s visit hadn’t gone ahead, the Biden administration would have faced a strong reaction from both parties in Congress for not standing up to China’s threat to Taiwan or human rights issues regarding Tibet and Xinjiang, not to mention Hong Kong.
So where does it leave trade between the world’s two leading powers?
Consider the not-too-distant past. The US supported the Republic of China against Japan in the Pacific war of 1941-45. When the Chinese leadership fled to Taiwan in 1949 following the victory of Mao Zedong’s communists in the Chinese civil war, Washington continued to recognize the exiled regime as China’s legitimate government, blocking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from joining the United Nations.
This shifted in 1972 following President Nixon’s historic visit to China (in a move to isolate the Soviets). The US now recognized the PRC as China’s sole government and accepted its “One China” policy.
It downgraded its Taiwan relations to merely informal while affirming a peaceful settlement to the mainland communists’ claim that this was a breakaway province that had to be assimilated.
This opened US-China trade, ending a US trade embargo in place since the 1940s. Economic ties proliferated in the 1980s under Mao’s eventual successor, Deng Xiaoping, helping the Chinese economy to multiply while the US enjoyed lower consumer prices and a stronger stock market.

Western manufacturing firms either outsourced to Chinese firms or set up operations themselves. They benefited from cheaper production and – for those outsourcing – not having to own factories or deal with labour issues. In turn, the Chinese gained tremendous manufacturing capability.
As China’s middle class grew wealthier, the country became a major target consumer market for US firms such as Apple and GM. The Chinese authorities insisted this was done through local partner firms, transferring technology in the process and further enhancing the nation’s manufacturing know-how.

Perceived Chinese threat
China and the US captured more than half the growth in GDP across the world from 1980 to 2020. US GDP grew nearly five times from US$4.4 trillion to $20.9 trillion in today’s money, while China’s grew from $310 billion to $14.7 trillion.
China is now the second largest economy, although the IMF, World Bank and CIA consider it the largest once purchasing power is taken into account (see chart below). The US is still well ahead on per capita income ($69,231 vs $12,359 in 2021), though China is now that of a “developed” country, having lifted 800 million people out of poverty in the process.
The US has become increasingly concerned about China’s faster economic growth and the fact that the US buys much more from its rival than the other way around. This drove the big decline in US domestic manufacturing that famously helped Donald Trump to win the US presidency.

Chinese and US GDP based on purchasing power parity 1990-2021
World Bank
Equally, the rivalry has extended to other areas as China has sought a leading role on the world stage. Both nations are nuclear powers, although the Chinese military has only 350 nuclear warheads to America’s 5,500.
China has a larger navy, with some 360 battle force ships compared to the US 297, although China’s are mostly smaller – only three aircraft carriers compared to America’s 11, for example. The two countries are also competing in space to bring astronauts to the Moon and establish the first lunar base.
All this has threatened American dominance, while President Xi has also been much more forthright both domestically and internationally than any Chinese leader since Mao.

The US has gradually become more hostile, starting with president Obama’s pivot towards other Asian nations in 2016 and then president Trump’s public complaints and eventual sanctioning of China’s “unfair” trade practices.
Trump imposed extra tariffs on goods imported from China in 2018 and restricted China’s access to various semiconductor manufacturing technologies in 2020, while the Chinese responded with countermeasures along the way.
When President Biden took office in 2021, he began highlighting long-simmering complaints about human rights issues in Xinjiang and the threat to Taiwan (while still endorsing the One China Policy).
He also imposed sanctions on certain Chinese companies of a kind not seen since the Mao-era trade embargo.

US trade in goods to China 2011-21
Note the US trade in services to China is about one-tenth that of goods. In 2020 the US exported US$40 billion in services to China and imported US$16 billion. Statista
Biden also banned goods from China’s Xinjiang region on the grounds of forced labor in 2022, affecting the purchasing of goods by many western companies. China reportedly moved workers to other parts of the country to enable western companies to keep purchasing.

Bipolarity is back
Covid-19 further increased the distance between the two countries. After China’s “Zero-Covid” policy helped to disrupt supply chains and cause product shortages, the Biden administration began calling for reduced dependency on its rival.
US firms have duly been restructuring their supply chains. In June, Apple moved some iPad production from China to Vietnam, albeit also because of growing demand in south-east Asia.
Near-shoring to Mexico is gaining momentum. Apple manufacturers Foxconn and Pegatron are considering producing iPhones for North America in Mexico rather than China to take advantage of lower labor costs and the free-trade agreement between the US and Mexico.

Two global blocs are increasingly emerging, with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in April calling for “friend-shoring” with trusted partners, dividing countries into friends or foes. The Biden administration announced at the June G7 meeting a new “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.”
Aiming to mobilize $600 billion in investments over five years, this is an overture to various developing countries already being courted by China under its similar Belt and Road Initiative.
Days earlier, China had hosted the annual BRICS summit, which includes Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. It welcomed leaders from 13 other countries: Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Senegal, Uzbekistan, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Malaysia and Thailand. Xi urged the summit to build a “global community of security” based on multilateral cooperation. Iran and Argentina have since applied to join the bloc.

We are already seeing what bipolarity will mean for vital components and commodities. In nanochips, the US is leading a “chips 4” pact with Japan, Taiwan and possibly South Korea to develop next-generation technologies and manufacturing capacity. China is investing US$1.4 trillion between 2020 and 2025 in a bid to become self-reliant in this technology.
Another big issue is cobalt, which is essential for making lithium batteries for electric vehicles. To secure supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which produces 70% of world reserves, China has navigated Congolese politics, lobbying powerful politicians in mining regions. By 2020, Chinese firms owned or had a stake in 15 of the DRC’s 19 cobalt-producing mines.
As China hoards cobalt supplies, the US seeks alternatives. GM is developing its Ultium battery cell, which needs 70% less cobalt than today’s batteries, while Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing a battery that doesn’t need the metal at all.

Silver linings
As US-China relations have moved from building bridges in 1972 to building walls in 2022, countries will increasingly be forced to choose sides and companies will have to plan supply chains accordingly. Those seeking to trade in both blocs will need to “divisionalize”, running parallel operations.
American companies wanting to serve Chinese consumers will still need to manufacture in China or other nations within that bloc, while Chinese companies will need to do the same in reverse. Interestingly, Chinese companies have been rapidly buying farmland and agriculture-based companies in the US and elsewhere.
Yet though the new supply chains will almost certainly increase costs for western consumers and dampen China’s growth, there will be benefits. Supply chains should be more resilient to future crises and also more transparent, while reduced transportation (and reliance on Chinese coal) should cut carbon emissions.

This should help to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals on environmental and social sustainability.
US President Joe Biden wants more advanced semiconductors produced in America. Image: Twitter
The cobalt and nanochips examples also show how the US-China rivalry is catalyzing innovation. And importantly, global trade will continue growing as countries depend on each other, even as trade links change.
It will certainly take time to find an equilibrium. It took years for the USSR and US to figure out how to co-exist without getting into direct military conflict. Hillary Clinton wrote in 2011 as secretary of state that “there is no handbook for the evolving US-China relationship”, and that remains the case today.
At any rate, the businesses that thrive in this new environment will likely be those that plan for a divided world with divisional supply chains. The recent Taiwan row will probably not lead to direct military conflict; rather it will reinforce a trend that has been gathering momentum for a decade or more.
ManMohan S Sodhi is Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management, City, University of London and Christopher S Tang is Professor of Supply Chain Management, University of California, Los Angeles
asiatimes.com

US-China rivalry dividing the world in two - Asia Times

Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has elicited a strong response from China: days of simulated attack on Taiwan with further drills announced, plus a
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
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China sending fighter jets to Thailand for joint exercises
August 12 2022

FILE - In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, air force and naval aviation corps of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fly planes at an unspecified location in China, Aug. 4, 2022. The Chinese air force is sending fighter jets and bombers to Thailand for a joint exercise with the Thai military on Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (Fu Gan/Xinhua via AP, File)

FILE - In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, air force and naval aviation corps of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) fly planes at an unspecified location in China, Aug. 4, 2022. The Chinese air force is sending fighter jets and bombers to Thailand for a joint exercise with the Thai military on Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022. (Fu Gan/Xinhua via AP, File)

BANGKOK (AP) — The Chinese air force is sending fighter jets and bombers to Thailand for a joint exercise with the Thai military on Sunday.

The training will include air support, strikes on ground targets and small- and large-scale troop deployment, the Chinese Defense Ministry said in a statement posted on its website.

China’s expanding military activities in the Asia-Pacific region have alarmed the United States and its allies and form part of a growing strategic and economic competition that has inflamed tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Thailand in June as part of an effort to strengthen what he called America’s “unparalleled network of alliances and partnerships” in the region.

The Falcon Strike exercise will be held at the Udorn Royal Thai Air Force Base in northern Thailand near the border with Laos. Thai fighter jets and airborne early warning aircraft from both countries will also take part.

The training comes as the U.S. holds combat drills in Indonesia with Indonesia, Australia, Japan and Singapore in the largest iteration of the Super Garuda Shield exercises since they began in 2009.

It also follows China’s sending warships, missiles and aircraft into the waters and air around Taiwan in a threatening response to a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the self-ruled island, which China claims as its territory.

Kurt Campbell, a top advisor to President Joe Biden on the Indo-Pacific, said Friday that the U.S. would take resolute steps to support Taiwan, including sending warships and aircraft through the 160-kilometer (100-mile) wide waterway that separates Taiwan and China.

“We’ll continue to fly, sail and operate where international law allows, consistent with our longstanding commitment to freedom of navigation,” he said in a call with reporters. “And that includes conducting standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks.”

China sending fighter jets to Thailand for joint exercises | AP News
 
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N. Korea fires two cruise missiles missile toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean official​


All News 14:14 August 17, 2022





SEOUL, Aug. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea seems to have test-fired two cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea on Wednesday, a South Korean military official said, as President Yoon Suk-yeol held a press conference to mark the 100th day since taking office.
In his Liberation Day speech two days earlier, he laid out the details of his "audacious initiative" meant to help the North improve its economy in the event it takes denuclearization steps.
The North's first known launch of a cruise missile since January also came a day after South Korean and American military troops kicked off preliminary drills just ahead of the start of their annual combined Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise.
While the North is banned from making launches using ballistic missile technologies under U.N. Security Council resolutions, such a firing of a cruise missile is not in violation of them.
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
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North Korea fires two cruise missiles toward Yellow Sea: Seoul | NK News

North Korea fired two cruise missiles into waters off its west coast on Wednesday morning, South Korea’s presidential office said later that day. The launch is the first-known DPRK missile test since it fired eight short-range ballistic missiles on June 5 and comes as the U.S. and South Korea...
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BREAKING: The head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin pledges mutual beneficial cooperation with North Korea
This will fuel more speculation about the arrival of North Korean guest workers in Donbas. Despite UN sanctions on North Korean overseas labour, workers remained present in countries, such as Russia, China, Laos and Vietnam
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559875669621985281
View: https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1559875669621985281?s=20&t=IJHRAQTNeXjDCGJWP79IZA
 
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China to Join Russia Military Exercises as U.S. Rivals Deepen Ties; Moscow plans to hold drills in its Far East region near the border with China and North Korea from August 30 to September 5

Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 1:03 PM ET
By James T. Areddy in New York and Ann M. Simmons in Moscow
Wall Street Journal

China’s People’s Liberation Army said it is set to join military exercises led by Russia, in the latest demonstration of partnership between the two U.S. rivals.

Building on a “no limits” pact their presidents signed this year, the Russian and Chinese militaries are expected to drill side-by-side starting later this month in the Russian Far East, according to China’s Ministry of Defense. The exercises will mark their second joint show of force in the region this year after bombers from each country in May conducted a 13-hour drill close enough to Japan and South Korea that those nations scrambled jet fighters, at a time when President Biden was visiting Tokyo.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense didn’t immediately respond to a request for confirmation of whether China would participate in the exercises, which are scheduled Aug. 30 to Sept. 5.

Last month, the Russian ministry said units of its Eastern Military District, in the nation’s Far East near the borders of China and North Korea, as well as airborne, long range aviation and military transport aviation personnel and equipment, would participate in training maneuvers along with military contingents from other states it didn’t name. Reports, including China’s Defense Ministry statement, said India, Belarus, Tajikistan, Mongolia and other nations would join, though Russia hasn’t confirmed the participants.

The Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February, and recent Chinese live fire exercises around Taiwan, have elevated military tensions this year and put both Moscow and Beijing on the receiving end of criticism from Washington. Rather than formal treaty allies, China and Russia appear aligned primarily over shared interests, including a desire to check global dominance of the U.S., according to analysts.

China has declined to criticize or publicly endorse Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which began shortly after Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Beijing and they signed a lengthy joint statement that rejected the U.S.-led global political order. After Beijing practiced a possible military blockade of Taiwan this month in response to a visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Kremlin blamed the U.S. for heightening tensions.

Mr. Putin this week called Mrs. Pelosi’s visit a “thoroughly planned provocation” by the U.S. to sow chaos. The remarks were welcomed by China’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday, where a spokesman said they demonstrate “high-level strategic coordination between China and Russia, and the firm support the two countries have rendered each other on issues concerning their core interests.”

Clear limits exist in the Russia-China relationship, which has often been deeply troubled in the past. Beijing has criticized Western governments for cutting trade relations with Russia in an effort to penalize Moscow for the Ukraine invasion and continued to buy its energy exports, but many of China’s biggest government companies have also appeared to quietly abide by some of the sanctions.

The Russian and Chinese militaries have practiced together on various occasions in recent years, often sparking protests from the U.S. and other nations. Details are limited about the coming military exercises, which are known as Vostok 2022, referring to the Russian word for East. Moscow hosts similar large-scale wargames annually and rotates them between different regions.

China’s three-sentence statement said the coming event aims to deepen practical and friendly cooperation between participating countries and is unrelated to the “current international and regional situation,” likely referring to Ukraine and Taiwan.

They follow a series of similar military exercises in Asia, where China’s air force in recent days has flown alongside Thai jets and U.S. Army troops have practiced in Indonesia with allied forces, including Australia and Japan.

When Russia hosted Vostok exercises in 2018, it described the scale as unprecedented since the Soviet era. It said 300,000 troops participated along with 1,000 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, 80 ships, and 36,000 tanks, armored and other vehicles.

As a first-time participant in the Vostok exercises in 2018, China said it sent 3,200 soldiers, along with more than 1,000 pieces of weaponry and 30 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has sought to play down the participation of other states in the coming exercises and wave off doubt about its military capabilities as it suffers the high costs of prosecuting its war in Ukraine. In July, Russian officials warned “that a number of foreign media are spreading inaccurate information about alleged mobilization activities.” They said that only part of Russia’s armed forces was involved in Moscow’s military action in Ukraine and the number was sufficient enough to fulfill Mr. Putin’s goals in the campaign.

Write to James T. Areddy at james.areddy@wsj.com and Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com

China to Join Russia Military Exercises as U.S. Rivals Deepen Ties - WSJ
 
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