CRIME The Collapse in Law Enforcement: As Arrest Rates Plummet, People Have Been Less Willing to Report Crime

[Cardinal]

The Collapse in Law Enforcement: As Arrest Rates Plummet, People Have Been Less Willing to Report Crime

The American news media has been working overtime to convince people that violent crime is dramatically falling. Here are typical headlines from ABC News and NPR. “US stats show violent crime…

crimeresearch.org

The American news media has been working overtime to convince people that violent crime is dramatically falling. Here are typical headlines from ABC News and NPR.

“US stats show violent crime dramatically falling, so why is there a rising clash with perception? ‘I don’t believe the statistics,'”‘ said Auriol Sonia Morris, a Trump supporter.”
Bill Hutchinson, “US stats show violent crime dramatically falling, so why is there a rising clash with perception?,” ABC News, March 22, 2024

“Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don’t believe it”
Karen Zamora, Ari Shapiro, and Courtney Dorning, “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don’t believe it,” NPR, February 12, 2024.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.
Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows. . . .
Ken Dilanian, “Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They’re wrong.” NBC News, December 16, 2023.

NBC and NPR pointed out that the murder rate in 2023 was lower than in 2022. Unfortunately, their discussion ignores that the murder rate was still 7% above where it was in 2019.

The news media often focuses on the initial murder rate data, though the ABC News article and others looked at the FBI’s 2022 violent crime data, which points out that violent crime reported to police declined in 2022.

But, there is a big problem with using the FBI Uniform Crime Report data on crimes reported to police because victims don’t report most crimes. More importantly, the number of crimes reported to police falls as the arrest rate declines. If people don’t think the police will solve their cases, they are less likely to report them to the police. While the violent crime rate reported to police fell by 1.7% between 2021 and 2022, the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that total violent crime (reported and non-reported) rose from 16.5 to 23.5 per 100,000. Violent crime in 2022 was above the rate the last year before the pandemic in 2019 and above the average for the five years from 2015 to 2019.

Figure 1, presented at the top of this post, illustrates the dramatic drop in arrest rates for violent crimes reported to the police. If you compare the last five years before COVID-19 to 2022, the arrest rate for violent crime across all cities fell by 20%. But for cities with over one million people, it fell by 54%. The drops in arrest rates by type of violent crime ranged from 15% to 27% for all cities and from 38% to 58% for cities with more than one million people (Figures 2 and 3). Figure 4 shows the sudden drop in arrests for property crimes that started in 2020. Comparing the five years from 2015-2019 to the arrest rate in 2022 shows a drop of 33% for all cities and a 63% decline for cities with more than a million people.

To get another idea of what these numbers mean, in 2022, with 41.5% of violent crimes reported to the police and only 35.2% of those resulting in an arrest, that implies that only 14.6% of violent crimes result in an arrest (Figure 5). If you take the 20.3% of reported violent crimes in large cities resulting in an arrest, that implies that only 8.4% of all violent crimes resulted in an arrest. For property crimes, the numbers are even worse. With 31.8% of property crimes reported to police and only 11.9% of those reported crimes resulting in an arrest, that means that only 3.8% of all property crimes result in an arrest. For large cities with over a million people, only 1.4% of all property crimes result in an arrest.

The notion that the rate at which victims report crimes to police closely tracks changes in arrest rates has long been understood. For example, Figure 6 shows the relationship for violent and property crime data from 1973 to 2005 (source: Freedomnomics, 2007, p. 115).

 

[ssonb]

People are waking up to the fact that the popo's are not your buddies.
They do not in a majority of cases solve a problem but complicate it, they are just the introduction cog in the government swamp machine.

 

[Intestinal Fortitude]

Vigilantism WILL rise

 

[Quiet Man]

The good news is that people are waking-up to the systematic, broad-spectrum plans by the Globalist Cabal to bring-down the Western nations and plunge us into global war. I hope it's soon enough to prevent full collapse. I think it is, but scary stuff...

 

[seraphima]

People who have been murdered generally don't report the crime. This has been a statistic of long standing.

 

[Matt]

The legal system is a joke... the bad guys have rights and the victims have none.

Some how the victim is supposed to be ok with the criminal doing a little community service and going to drug counseling after a sentence of time served for pre plea agreement jail.

There is also the fact that the turds doing a 90 hitch in county actually prolongs their lives by years... they sober up, get some food and hydration instead of going on benders and rolling the dice of an overdose... if we aren't going to give them real time then it is best to leave them on the streets... Fentanyl is one of the leading killers of shitheads.... stay out of their way!

Reporting crime also severely constrains your options for dealing with the shitbag.... look at what involving the cops for squatters does as opposed to just making arrangements!

 

[Groucho]

I wonder if there's a correlation between the increase in backhoe sales and the decline in reported crimes?

 

[Terrwyn]

Local Deputy was just arrested at a vacant house with another former deputy for cocaine use and paraphernalia.
The gang unit got them due to an anonymous tip. Hispanic of course now days. When we first moved to the high desert it was Whites and we were the meth capital of the world.

 

[Thinwater]

If the community trusts that the cops will do their job and investigate crimes, they will make reports. If they feel that the cops are not going to do anything, they won't. Even with a much lower percentage of crimes being reported, crimes reported are still way up.

My GF works for felony probation for the state of FL. They are short on staff and still getting just as many scum bags on probation as ever. Last month, one probationer lived about 5 doors down from us and was getting out of prison, on probation, for threatening another neighbor with an axe. He got out on a Friday and had to report on Monday.

By Monday he had bought cocaine with the prison release money before even getting on the bus, got home, stolen his mother's credit card to buy cigarettes to trade for cocaine, got trespassed from the family home and had to spend the night in a dumpster, in the rain behind a pizza restaurant. He showed up Monday for his probation appointment and told my GF all of the above plus tested positive for cocaine.

They filled out a violation and got a warrant for his arrest. He got picked up on a Friday and tossed back in jail. The next Friday the judge sent him to prison for five years for violation of probation.

We don't mess with these scumbags in FL. He went from a free man on probation to back in prison for 5 years in two weeks.

 

[bbbuddy]

If the community trusts that the cops will do their job and investigate crimes, they will make reports. If they feel that the cops are not going to do anything, they won't. Even with a much lower percentage of crimes being reported, crimes reported are still way up.

My GF works for felony probation for the state of FL. They are short on staff and still getting just as many scum bags on probation as ever. Last month, one probationer lived about 5 doors down from us and was getting out of prison, on probation, for threatening another neighbor with an axe. He got out on a Friday and had to report on Monday.

By Monday he had bought cocaine with the prison release money before even getting on the bus, got home, stolen his mother's credit card to buy cigarettes to trade for cocaine, got trespassed from the family home and had to spend the night in a dumpster, in the rain behind a pizza restaurant. He showed up Monday for his probation appointment and told my GF all of the above plus tested positive for cocaine.

They filled out a violation and got a warrant for his arrest. He got picked up on a Friday and tossed back in jail. The next Friday the judge sent him to prison for five years for violation of probation.

We don't mess with these scumbags in FL. He went from a free man on probation to back in prison for 5 years in two weeks.

Sounds like he wanted to go back. Either "Unfinished business" or acclimated.

 

[Doc1]

Lotsa observations: People often do not report crimes for which they know that no investigation will occur. Got your lawnmower stolen from your front yard. The cops are not going to launch a major investigation. Even in the extremely - really, really, really extremely - rare instance where your lawnmower is recovered, there will be virtually no connection to or prosecution of the perps. It's the, "I got it at a flea market," defense. Petty crimes like tool theft are usually only solved if the police do a traffic stop immediately after the theft and catch the thieves with the stuff still in their car or truck.

I will note that the police in rural areas tend to take petty theft more seriously than do urban departments. I'm not knocking the cops here, but rural departments often have a lower case load.

The real biggie is violent crime and especially, murder. Lots of people do not want to get involved as witnesses because they fear being targeted by the perps. This is especially true in urban, Black areas, where that fear is compounded by the "snitches get stitches" culture. Also, most people understand that the police are not going to be able to protect them from the perpetrators after the fact.

I know that a lot - if not most - TB2K members have a "Bring it!" attitude towards the possibility of being targeted by criminals, but we are not typical modern Americans. Most people are afraid of criminals and are even more fearful about the possibility of directly confronting them to protect themselves. Criminals know this and often use it to their advantage when selecting their targets.

Best
Doc

 

[Dux]

People who have been murdered generally don't report the crime. This has been a statistic of long standing.

Yes but I imagine murders end up getting counted regardless.

So, I'm not in Florida. Last week a local man beat up a baby and got out of jail with a $5K bond. Yuck!

 

[ShadowMan]

 

[Cag3db1rd]

I stopped reporting stuff long ago, and opted to hex criminals instead. It worked pretty well when my bike got stolen.

 

[Ravekid]

Indianapolis just started a police academy recruit class. There aren’t even 20 recruits in the class. The last class this past fall had just over 20 complete training.

The class that graduated at the end of 2019 had over 70 graduates.

Patrol policing is in a crisis. The better recruits understand “Soros Prosecutor” type issues. They aren’t beholden to working for legacy departments like past relatives. Young people are less likely to have the desire to work some where for two plus decades, which many pension plans require to be filly vested.

Even with pay here for many larger Indiana agencies heading toward or over $100K/year within ten to fifteen years, the field is still having recruiting issues.

 

[L.A.B.]

Vigilantism WILL rise

A shortage of chalk will ensue.

 

[33dInd]

I’ve been saying for years
Up to the late 1950,s
The laws were there to protect us from the criminal
That changed in the early 1960,s
Then they changed the laws bit by bit to protect the criminals from us
I truely believe this shift started with the lowering of standards for the younger criminals
Juvenile delinquency

 

[OldArcher]

Vigilantism WILL rise

Yes, it will. Incidents will occur, and NOT be reported. As crime becomes even more violent, those offenders will be removed from the gene pool. Eventually, word will get out to those who prey upon the innocent, the helpless, and the hopeless. If enough people do what is necessary, whatever it takes, crime will go down. As malefactors, members of gangs and cartels are targeted, and eradicated, safety of our citizens will increase. The Government is corrupt, no longer “for and by the people.” It no longer lives by the Constitution. Those who are criminals, of any kind, will learn fear, as Joe Lunchbucket and Suzy Homemaker finally unleash Kipling’s “The Wrath of the Awakened Saxon.” THEN the fight for true justice will begin…

OA

 

[Firebird]

Indianapolis just started a police academy recruit class. There aren’t even 20 recruits in the class. The last class this past fall had just over 20 complete training.

The class that graduated at the end of 2019 had over 70 graduates.

Patrol policing is in a crisis. The better recruits understand “Soros Prosecutor” type issues. They aren’t beholden to working for legacy departments like past relatives. Young people are less likely to have the desire to work some where for two plus decades, which many pension plans require to be filly vested.

Even with pay here for many larger Indiana agencies heading toward or over $100K/year within ten to fifteen years, the field is still having recruiting issues.

I cannot imagine being an Indy cop

 

[Doc1]

I stopped reporting stuff long ago, and opted to hex criminals instead. It worked pretty well when my bike got stolen.

When possible, I prefer to "hex" 'em with .45 acp, .357, 9mm or 12 GA.

Best
Doc