INTL Taiwan Election - January 13, 2024

[Plain Jane]

With Elections Looming, Taiwan Battles Massive Cyber Threat: Cybersecurity Expert | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

With Elections Looming, Taiwan Battles Massive Cyber Threat: Cybersecurity Expert​

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JAN 02, 2024 - 01:25 PM
Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
With Taiwan’s elections just two weeks away, concerns about Chinese interference in the elections have become more prominent.
A man votes in New Taipei City, Taiwan, on Nov. 26, 2022. (Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) fourth-ranking leader, and its lead in charge of Taiwan affairs, Wang Huning, convened a meeting of various departments in late November to discuss CCP influence operations in Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official shared news of the meeting with a group of selected media earlier this month, according to CNN.

A scholar from Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Research told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that the CCP’s agenda for manipulating the January elections has turned Taiwan into the “most dangerous place in cyberspace.”

“With fast developments in AI tools, new types of malicious software, [and the] criminal chain of Ransomware as a Service [RaaS], Taiwan is suffering from more diverse cyber attacks,” according to Wu Tsunghan, an assistant research fellow with the institute.

Mr. Wu shared his viewpoints in a conference jointly organized by New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University and the Taiwanese mission on Dec. 9. He reminded the gathering that Taiwanese businesses were attacked 3,245 times every week on average in the first half of 2023.

Overall, 15,000 cyber threats were detected every second during the same period, making Taiwan the most attacked location in Asia-Pacific cyberspace, according to Fortinet, a U.S. cybersecurity firm.

Meanwhile, the Taiwanese security expert told reporters that Mr. Wang, who became head of Taiwanese affairs earlier in 2023, has instructed officials to “step up their effectiveness” in influencing Taiwan’s public opinion, ahead of the Jan. 13 elections.

A longtime advisor to CCP head Xi Jinping, who personally chairs China’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Mr. Wang also acts as the deputy head of the group. He directed his staff to reduce any likelihood of external parties uncovering evidence of CCP interference in Taiwan, according to reports.

Representatives of Taiwanese civic organizations call on all candidates for the November nine-in-one elections to sign the "Defend Taiwan and Never Surrender" pledge, in a joint press conference in Taipei on Sept. 5, 2022. (Shih-chieh Lin/The Epoch Times)

Disinformation Campaign​

Mr. Wu said that Chinese meddling in Taiwanese elections most importantly includes “making confusion” by stirring up society. As an example, he cited a cyber incident in which a Dec. 6 social media post accused the Taiwanese government of monitoring the Taiwanese public.

“Is it true or not? How to verify? Who can verify? Can the verification be trusted?” said Mr. Wu during the conference.

He noted that the Chinese regime tries to use information to influence people’s minds and behavior.

“If true, it refers to [a] data leak [from] government agencies. If not true—Why at this time? Who’s operating it?” he said, adding that the purpose can be to undermine public trust in the government.

He gave the example of another disinformation campaign that accused the Taiwanese government of wanting to import Japanese nuclear waste to Taiwan.

Disinformation is spread through the Chinese-speaking world by social media platforms popular in Taiwan such as Facebook, which shared images and false information from Chinese platforms like Weibo or Douyin, according to a report by the Taiwan FactCheck Center (TFC).

“Nonetheless, while Chinese narratives attempted to feed increasing anti-Japan sentiment in China, Taiwanese ones exploited Taiwanese citizens’ long-standing concern about food safety and criticized the government led by the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) for being soft on Japan,” said the Sept. 18 report authored by Wei-Ping Li.

An erroneous narrative circulating in Taiwan concerned Yasuhiro Sonoda, a Japanese politician who was said to have died from multiple myeloma in 2020 because he drank treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

“This rumor has persisted in social media like Weibo, Douyin, Facebook, and LINE, for years and has lately become prevalent again. It wasn’t until this September that Kyodo News was able to contact Mr. Sonoda confirmed he was still alive,” said the TFC report.

Something similar happened during the visit of Taiwanese vice-president, Lai Ching-te, to Paraguay in August to attend the inauguration of Paraguayan President Santiago Peña Palacios.

Paraguay is part of a dwindling group of governments—currently only 12—that continue to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Mr. Peña had visited Taiwan in July and had promised President Tsai Ing-wen that his country would “stand with the people of Taiwan” during his five-year term.

Mr. Wu said a fake news report began circulating claiming that Taiwan was going to provide funding to build free housing for Paraguay.

“Sometimes providing funding to other countries … some people might [wonder why] Taiwan is providing funding to other countries when we are facing such challenges as high house prices and [when] the salary is not good,” he said, adding that this bit of misinformation directly targeted the reputation of the Taiwanese government, as well as its relationship with Paraguay.

According to Mr. Wu, such “disinformation campaigns” accelerate during times like the visit of top Taiwanese leaders to the United States and vice-versa, and during national elections.

“It really depends upon the context, purpose, and what kind of goal the attackers want to achieve,” he said. It’s difficult to find the source of disinformation campaigns like this, and by the time it is uncovered, it has already made an impact on the public and cast doubt on Taiwan’s democratic system of government.

Chinese meddling in Taiwanese elections also came up during Xi’s visit to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. After his meetings with the Chinese leader, President Joe Biden told reporters on Nov. 16 that he had discussed the matter with the Chinese leader.

“I made it clear: I didn’t expect any interference, any at all. And we had that discussion as—as he was leaving,” Mr. Biden said.

Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te and running mate Hsiao Bi-Khim pose for a photo after registering for the upcoming presidential election at the Central Election Commission in Taipei, Taiwan, on Nov. 21, 2023. (Ann Wang/Reuters)

The SSF and Base 311​

China’s cyberwar operations against Taiwan, which are currently at their peak, are managed by the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (SSF), and Base 311, a unit based in Fujian that focuses on Taiwan, Mr. Wu said.

According to Mr. Wu, Base 311 has its own media company. Dedicated to the implementation of the “Three Warfares” strategy—public opinion or media warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare—it creates an ecosystem that feeds media in Taiwan. Base 311 has at least six regiments overseeing the three types of warfare, as well as multiple forms of propaganda.

The latter is fed by China Huayi Broadcasting Corporation (CHBC), which the Global Taiwan Institute defines as Base 311’s commercial front.

“Its coverage of Taiwan is routinely negative, often highlighting political contention and social issues,” according to a 2017 report by the Washington-based non-profit.

Mr. Wu said China’s propaganda operations against Taiwan are encompassed by its “cyber approach” which he described as one of the means of “PLA invasion.”

“Cognitive warfare and disinformation integrates cyber, information, psychological, and social engineering attacks, and can operate in synchronization with other physical means aiming to affect attitudes and behavior of the targeted individual or group to gain advantage,” said Mr. Wu, adding that this cyber approach has been the crux of China’s pre-election influence operations.

 

[Plain Jane]

Chairman Xi New Year Message About Taiwan: "China will surely be reunified" - The Last Refuge

In his New Year message to the people of China, Chairman Xi Jinping affirms the intention to unify Taiwan with China. [Full Translation HERE] From the speech: “We will continue to support Hong Kong and Macao in harnessing their distinctive strengths, better integrating themselves into China’s...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Chairman Xi New Year Message About Taiwan: “China will surely be reunified”​

January 1, 2024 | Sundance | 219 Comments
In his New Year message to the people of China, Chairman Xi Jinping affirms the intention to unify Taiwan with China.
[Full Translation HERE] From the speech:

“We will continue to support Hong Kong and Macao in harnessing their distinctive strengths, better integrating themselves into China’s overall development, and securing long-term prosperity and stability. China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” ~ Chairman Xi Jinping (link)
This is sure to create anxiety amid the DC interventionists within the U.S. foreign policy establishment. However, with the USA bogged down in two regional conflicts, Israel/Gaza and Ukraine/Russia, the window for China to influence the Taiwan election is wide open.

ALJAZEERA – […] Beijing’s policy towards the self-ruled island it claims as its own will again be under the spotlight when voters in Taiwan go to the polls on January 13 to choose a new president and parliament, and the United States will be watching closely.
At the moment, William Lai Ching-te, the incumbent vice president and the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is expected to emerge the winner.
That result would likely rankle Beijing, which portrays Lai as a “separatist” bent on independence and ensure continued tension across the narrow strait that separates the island from China.
“Washington is well prepared to deal with any choice that the Taiwan electorate makes, but there’s certainly going to be different opportunities and challenges depending on what the results of the election are,” Rorry Daniels, the managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera, adding that the US would be considering strategies for the “appropriate political signals” to deter any Chinese military responses. (more)

 

[Plain Jane]

Taiwan's presidential candidate Ko Wen-je seeks a middle ground with China, attracting young voters

With Taiwan's presidential and parliamentary elections less than two weeks away, the island's alternative party candidate and chairman of the Taiwan People’s Party, Ko Wen-je, is promoting a policy of patience toward China, which has been upping its threat to annex the island by force.

apnews.com

Taiwan’s presidential candidate Ko Wen-je seeks a middle ground with China, attracting young voters​

CHRISTOPHER BODEEN
Updated 8:22 AM EST, January 4, 2024
Share
HSINCHU, Taiwan (AP) — With Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections less than two weeks away, the island’s alternative party candidate Ko Wen-je is promoting a policy of patience toward China, which has been upping its threat to annex the island by force.

In the middle of a day of campaigning in the city of Hsinchu, home to many of Taiwan’s most prosperous technology firms, Ko took a half-hour lunch break to speak with The Associated Press in Mandarin Chinese and English, often expanding on his answers in his well-known erudite manner.

Ko, a surgeon and former mayor of the capital Taipei, likened the relationship between the sides to a tumor that should be left to itself while the sides engage in talks on a future relationship. “Thirty years ago, when I was a surgeon, if we found a tumor, we would try to remove it. But at this moment, we just try to live with it,” he said. China remains an issue that must be managed, without sparking a major confrontation between the sides, he said.

While Taiwan’s elections are largely determined by issues of social equity, employment, education and welfare, relations with China are always an overarching issue in presidential elections.

Taiwan split from China amid civil war in 1949 and the two remain politically at odds, even while their cultural ties remain strong and their economic relations a driver for global markets in high-technology. China sends navy ships and warplanes close to the island on daily basis.



Ko is chairman of the Taiwan People’s Party and has cooperated in the past with both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which strongly backs Taiwan’s state of de-facto independence, and the main opposition Nationalists, known as the Kuomintang or KMT, which holds that Taiwan and the mainland are part of a single Chinese nation while insisting on upholding the self-ruled island’s democracy in face of Chinese pressure

The TPP has been filling a space in between that has drawn strong support from younger voters unwilling to follow their parents’ political allegiances and are less sensitive to the cultural divide between those with longstanding ties to the island and others whose families migrated there during the civil war.

While Ko does not stir crowds in the same manner as traditional Taiwanese politicians, his drive and non-conformist manner have made him a significant player with those looking for a political alternative.

Ko described the relationship across the Taiwan Strait as one requiring risk management, along with deterrence and a will to communicate. “China doesn’t really wish to attack Taiwan, its own domestic problems being pretty serious,” Ko said. “But it does hope to take over Taiwan through economic means.”

He pointed to significant problems within China, which has seen a sharp slowdown in its economy and rising rates of joblessness among young people, along with a crisis in the crucial housing sector leaving construction sites empty even after families had spent their life savings on unbuilt apartments.

“China has no intention of going to war with Taiwan, but there is still a risk. Because China is a dictatorship, and ... most wars are unpredictable, so Taiwan still needs to be careful,” Ko said. “Deterrence and communication are very important. We must increase the cost of war (to China). However, we want to talk with (China).”

The presidential polls remain close, but the relatively new TPP lacks the financing and deeply established community bases of the DPP and KMT. Recent polls have shown Ko in third place, with the DPP’s candidate, current Vice President William Lai topping them.

 

[Plain Jane]

China Sanctions 5 US Defense Firms In Strong 'Message' Ahead Of Taiwan Election | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

China Sanctions 5 US Defense Firms In Strong 'Message' Ahead Of Taiwan Election​

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JAN 09, 2024 - 04:15 AM
In a major move by Beijing which appears timed to send a strong message just ahead of Taiwan's presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13, China has unveiled sanctions against five American defense firms.

The targeted companies are involved in recent and ongoing US arms deals and sales to the self-ruled island of Taiwan. They've been named in Chinese state media as BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat and Data Link Solutions.



A Sunday statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the sanctions are "In response to these gravely wrong actions taken by the US." It said recent arms sales "seriously harm China's sovereignty and security interests, undermine the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

China has of late ramped up its anti-independence messaging, with Chinese President Xi Jinping in his annual New Year's Eve address stressing that Taiwan would "surely be reunified" with the mainland.

The US State Department just last month approved the latest US-Taiwan deal, a $300 million sale of military equipment for Taiwan's defense information technology sector.

But these new sanctions are being widely seen as mostly symbolic, given these major defense firms don't typically do business in China to begin with.

"The sanctions will freeze any property the companies have in China and prohibit organizations and individuals in China from doing business with them," the Foreign Ministry specified in an online statement.

Beijing is also sending strong signals to the United Kingdom as well with the following surprise, and very bold move:

China has detained the head of an overseas consulting firm for allegedly spying on the Asian nation for the British government, putting renewed focus on an industry targeted by Beijing’s national security crackdown.
China’s spy agency said Monday that the U.K.’s MI6 intelligence service employed the consultant from a “third country” to carry out espionage activities. The alleged spy, surnamed Huang, provided the U.K. with state secrets and intelligence, according to the Ministry of State Security’s [MSS] official WeChat account.

The MSS alleges the man "entered China several times under instructions to use their public profile as a cover to collect China-related intelligence for Britain... and seek other personnel whom MI6 could turn." China is also claiming to have evidence of Huang's spy activities.

The MI6 building in London, via Reuters
This is but the latest in the long-running tit-for-tat wherein business dealings between the West and China threaten to be severely eroded, also given deepening mistrust, as each side alleges their business executives are targeted by hostile foreign security services.

Below is a Taiwan election review and what's at stake and what to watch, based on Foreign Policy's 5 Predictions for China in 2024, [emphasis ZH]...

"Taiwan holds a presidential election on Jan. 13, and the year could start with a small crisis in the straits. Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Although Lai has said he won’t call for formal Taiwanese independence or drop the Republic of China name—a red line for Beijing—he has also said that Taiwan’s sovereignty is “a fact” and reminded his fellow candidates that by Beijing’s standards, they are all pro-independence.


A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions. Reports last week about comments made by Xi to U.S. President Joe Biden about reunification with Taiwan when they met in November stirred some panic in Washington, but an invasion remains highly unlikely. It would be risky and difficult, especially when China is struggling with other crises.

Even a victory for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) on Jan. 13 may cause some problems. The KMT is more pro-China than the DPP, but it would hardly hand the keys to the island over to Beijing. Chinese officials might overestimate the significance of a KMT election win, seeing it as a sign of China’s influence in Taiwan. Although 17 percent of Taiwanese voters said in a recent survey that China is their main concern, more than twice that number picked the economy."

 

[northern watch]

 

[Plain Jane]

Voting might already be underway by now.

Taiwan prepares to elect a president and legislature in what's seen as a test of control with China

Why this matters? Many see as the Taiwanese election as a test of control with China, which claims the self-governing island republic as its own.

apnews.com

WORLD NEWS

Taiwan prepares to elect a president and legislature in what’s seen as a test of control with China​

BY CHRISTOPHER BODEEN AND SIMINA MISTREANU
Updated 11:06 AM EST, January 12, 2024
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TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — With rallies and concerts attended by thousands of flag-waving supporters, Taiwanese are preparing to elect a new president and legislature on Saturday in what many see as a test of control with China, which claims the self-governing island republic as its own.

The race is tight, and both China and Taiwan’s key ally, the United States, are weighing in on political and economic issues they hope will sway voters.

The election pits Vice President Lai Ching-te, representing the Democratic Progressive Party known as the DPP, against Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang or KMT, and the former mayor of the capital city Taipei, Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party.

Speaking in his hometown of Tainan in the island’s south, Lai reflected on why he had left his career as a surgeon because of China’s missile tests and military exercises aimed at intimidating Taiwanese voters before the first open presidential election in 1996.

I wanted to protect the democracy that just gotten underway in Taiwan. I gave up my well-paid job and decided to follow the footsteps of our elders in democracy,” Lai said.

Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who also goes by William, attend a rally in southern Taiwan's Tainan city on Friday, Jan. 12, 2024 ahead of the presidential election on Saturday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

Hou, a former head of Taiwan’s police force and mayor of the capital Taipei’s suburbs, said that Lai’s view on relations with Beijing could bring uncertainty and even the possibility of war.

“I advocate pragmatic exchanges with China, the defense of national security, and protection of human rights. I insist that Taiwan’s future will be decided by 23.5 million (people of Taiwan) and I will use my life to protect Taiwan,” Hou said.

Eric Liao, a 54-year-old aviation engineer, didn’t divulge what party he was favoring, but said dialogue between the sides was crucial.

“I believe that there must be exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Only by having exchanges can we live in peace, which will be beneficial to the people on both sides,” he said.

Ko has strong appeal among younger voters, but is running a distant third in most polls.

Younger voters were mostly focused on their economic futures in a challenging environment.

“I still don’t know who to vote for. I feel that none of the candidates are good enough for me to have the urge to vote,” said Iris Huang, 27, who works in online marking.

Ko’s participation in the election has stirred things up for voters accustomed to the usual choice between the KMT and DPP, said Yoshi Liao, a 40-year-old construction engineer

“It’s different from what we had before ... therefore, no one knows who will be elected before the results are counted,” Liao said.

A young woman who commutes on one of Taiwan’s ubiquitous motor scooters said that financial stability was her main priority.

“My salary raises. Its the only thing I care about at this moment,” said the woman, who only gave her surname Liu to protect her privacy.

At a news conference on the eve of the vote, Central Election Commission Chairman Lee Chin-yuan said that he would “like to emphasize once again that all processes for the voting and counting of this election are transparent, open and subject to public supervision.”

China’s military threats may sway some voters against independence-leaning candidates, but the U.S. continues to pledge support for whatever government emerges, reinforced by the Biden administration’s plans to send an unofficial delegation made up of former senior officials to the island shortly after the polls.

That move could upset efforts to repair ties between Beijing and Washington that plunged in recent years over trade, COVID-19, Washington’s support for Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which China has refused to condemn at the United Nations.

Apart from China tensions, the Taiwan election largely hinges on domestic issues, particularly over an economy that was estimated to have only grown by 1.4% last year. That partly reflects inevitable cycles in demand for computer chips and other exports from the high-tech, heavily trade-dependent manufacturing base, and a slowing of the Chinese economy.

But longer-term challenges such as housing affordability, a yawning gap between the rich and poor, and unemployment are especially prominent.

Candidates will make their final appeals Friday with campaigning to end at midnight. The candidate with the most votes wins, with no runoff. The legislative races are for districts and at-large seats.


While dinner table issues gather the most attention, China remains the one subject that can be ignored but not avoided. The two sides have no official relations, but are linked by trade and investment, with an estimated 1 million Taiwanese spending at least part of the year on the mainland for work, study or recreation. Meanwhile, China has continued flying fighter planes and sailing warships near the island to put teeth behind its pledge to blockade, intimidate or invade.

Those threats were thrown into stark relief in 2022, when Beijing fired missiles over the island and conducted what was seen as a practice run of a possible future blockade of the Taiwan Strait after then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping, at his most recent meeting with President Joe Biden in November, called Taiwan the “most sensitive issue” in U.S.-Chinese relations.

Washington is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and consider all threats to the island as matters of “grave concern,” while remaining ambiguous on whether it would use military forces.

In recent years, the U.S. has stepped up support for Taiwan as Beijing ratchets up military and diplomatic pressure on the island, although the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have drawn down what U.S. military industries can provide to customers and allies.

The U.S. government insists the differences between Beijing and Taipei be resolved peacefully, and opposes any unilateral change to their status quo. While Chinese leaders and state propaganda proclaim unification is inevitable and will be achieved at any cost, Taiwanese have consistently voted in favor of maintaining their de facto political independence.

Lai is considered the front-runner in the race, but Hou trails closely. While the Nationalists formally support unification with China, they say they want to do so on their own terms, a somewhat abstract concept given the Communist Party’s demand for total power, but which some consider as a useful workaround to avoid outright conflict.

Beijing has labeled Lai a “Taiwan independence element,” an appellation that he hasn’t repudiated and which carries little or no stigma in Taiwan. Lai, however, has pledged to continue current President Tsai Ing-wen’s policy that Taiwan is already independent and needs to make no declaration of independence that could spark a military attack from China.

While running third in most surveys, the TPP’s Ko said during a news conference Friday that he would aim to strike a balance between Taiwan and the U.S. that wouldn’t upset relations with China.

“The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world and Taiwan’s most important ally,” he said. “So no matter who is elected, the relationship between Taiwan and the U.S. will not change.”

Ko said that he is the only “acceptable” candidate for both Washington and Beijing, adding that while there’s nothing Taiwan could do to please both China and the U.S., it is important for the island to refrain from “behavior that is intolerable to either side.”

___​

Johnson Lai contributed to this report.

 

[Plain Jane]

Taiwan Presidential Election Live Results 2024

See the results of Taiwan’s presidential election

www.bloomberg.com

As of 5:02 p.m. Taiwan time, here is the latest on the count. To be sure, fewer than 1% of polling stations have reported, but as of now it looks like a tight race for first and second place. You can see the results in real time here.

Source: Bloomberg
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor

 

[Plain Jane]

9m ago06:03
With the half-way mark in counting stations now crossed, the regional trends across the island are becoming quite clear. Look at the performance of the DPP and KMT geographically. If you click here, you can drill deeper into the results.

Source: Bloomberg
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor
12m ago06:01
As Lai maintains a steady lead in the presidential votes, the elephant in the room is how his ruling Democratic Progressive Party performs in the legislative votes.

The island’s parliament comprises both members elected from constituencies, plus legislators at large. In terms of legislators-at-large, the DPP is leading with 37.80% of the vote as of 6:59 p.m., with the KMT second with 34.35% and TPP with 20.81%, according to the CEC.
Chien-Hua WanTaiwan reporter
16m ago05:56
The mood at the TPP headquarters HQ is also quite depressed as a Ko victory now seems highly unlikely.

Earlier in the evening, key aides and legislative candidates gave emotional speeches to supporters, saying they’ve already done the best they could and have already made a difference to Taiwan’s politics, no matter what the final result is.
Betty HouMarkets Reporter, Taipei

 

[Plain Jane]

Ruling DPP’s Lai to Claim Taiwan Election Win With KMT Set to Concede

www.bloomberg.com

9m ago06:15
Here’s a quick check with 70% of polling stations reporting. The DPP’s Lai is maintaining his lead. You can track the count in real time here.

Source: Bloomberg
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor

 

[Plain Jane]

CCP is not going to be happy.

 

[Plain Jane]

Ruling DPP’s Lai Takes Early Lead in Taiwan Presidential Election​

• Ruling party DPP’s candidate Lai is leading
• Taiwan to elect new president in three-way race
• DPP hopes to extend eight-year grip on power
• Election set to shape relations with China, US

Election workers tally ballots at a polling station in Taipei.
Photographer: An Rong Xu/Bloomberg

New Updates

1m ago06:49
And we are now getting into the final lap, with 90% of the polling stations reporting. The DPP’s Lai is clearly in the lead now. You can track the results here.

Source: Bloomberg
Subramaniam Sharma

5m ago06:44
KMT’s Hou to Concede Defeat in Taiwan Election: Source
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor
10m ago06:39
With Lai maintaining a clear lead, we expect to know the definitive results of the presidential election very soon.

It may well be that the ruling DPP wins its third presidential election in a row -- unprecedented in Taiwan’s electoral history.
Adrian KennedySenior Editor, News Desk, Taipei

 

[Plain Jane]

Done.

Ruling DPP’s Lai to Claim Taiwan Election Win With KMT Set to Concede

www.bloomberg.com

9m ago07:14
The TPP’s Ko says:

“I believe that in four years the TPP will still get votes from our supporters.”

“One day we will get our own victory.”

Betty HouMarkets Reporter, Taipei

10m ago07:12
And to see where the tally stands with 96% of polling stations reporting, you can click here.

Source: Bloomberg
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor
12m ago07:11
The TPP’s Ko has also taken the stage and effectively conceded, saying his party has proven itself to be a major opposition force.

He thanks his supporters, saying the party has proven to the world that there isn’t only the DPP and KMT in Taiwan, and says that his party created many miracles in the elections.
Betty HouMarkets Reporter, Taipei
14m ago07:09
Taiwan looks set to elect Lai Ching-te as its next leader after the main opposition candidate conceded, lining up a man Beijing has labeled an “instigator of war” for the presidency.
The Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih congratulated Lai for his victory on Saturday evening in Taipei, and apologized for disappointing his voters, in an effective admission of defeat. The KMT is China’s preferred negotiating partner and Hou had vowed to restart talks with President Xi Jinping’s government if elected.

Lai Ching-te Photographer: Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg
Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor
19m ago07:04
DPP’s Lai Ching-Te Set to Win Taiwan Presidential Election

Subramaniam SharmaTOPLive Editor

 

[mzkitty]

 

[Housecarl]

According to the bottom of the hour radio news Xi et al in Beijing are throwing a hissy fit over the results.

The right answer to that is "F-you, live with it. Go stupid, reap the whirlwind and remember we can put a JDAM into your favorite men's room stall if you choose to go stupid....".

 

[WalknTrot]

That whole mess is a powder keg we don't have the leadership to deal with right now.

 

[Housecarl]

That whole mess is a powder keg we don't have the leadership to deal with right now.

Very true....

Or at least the "public" leadership....get down to the "designated survivor/successor" level of national command authority scenario chains and it's anyone's guess.....

 

[OldArcher]

According to the bottom of the hour radio news Xi et al in Beijing are throwing a hissy fit over the results.

The right answer to that is "F-you, live with it. Go stupid, reap the whirlwind and remember we can put a JDAM into your favorite men's room stall if you choose to go stupid....".

Except Traitor Joe doesn’t have the brains or testicles to push back the ChiComs…

OA

 

[Donghe Surfer]

The only good thing is the Legislature will blunt any stupid things of new DPP president.
KMT won 52 seats, DPP 51 (lost 10 seats), and TPP 8 seats. 2 independent legislators of whom 1 always votes KMT side.
So, TPP will be swing vote on any legislation, which means nothing stupid can be done by DPP.
Of course, MIC is the biggest winner, as it sells more stuff to Taiwan in the sequel to Ukraine.

 

[danielboon]

Cue up Duduman

 

[northern watch]

 

[hiwall]

Biden Says US Doesn’t Support Taiwan Independence After Vote​

President Joe Biden said the US did not support independence for Taiwan, after voters there defied China and returned the governing Democratic Progressive Party — which has sought to limit Beijing’s influence — to a third consecutive term.

“We do not support independence,” Biden told reporters Saturday as he departed the White House for Camp David.

Biden Says US Does Not Support Taiwan’s Independence After Vote

President Joe Biden said the US did not support independence for Taiwan, after voters there defied China and returned the governing Democratic Progressive Party — which has sought to limit Beijing’s influence — to a third consecutive term.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[northern watch]

 

[Plain Jane]

Taiwan Elects William Lai President In Snub To China, Beijing Responds By Stressing 'Inevitable Reunification' | ZeroHedge

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Taiwan Elects William Lai President In Snub To China, Beijing Responds By Stressing 'Inevitable Reunification'​

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, JAN 13, 2024 - 11:05 AM
William Lai Ching-te from the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has emerged victorious in Saturday's historic Taiwan presidential election, and Beijing is not happy, having immediately issued a rebuke after having urged the populace not the vote for him, saying the outcome "will not impede the inevitable trend of China’s reunification."

Beijing further claimed that DPP doesn't represent the mainstream public opinion on the island, despite that Lai, who serves as the current vice president, has just taken over 40% of votes cast - according to partial early results - in the three-way race with Hou Yu-ih from the conservative Kuomintang (KMT) and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). It was comfortable victory and resounding message to China.
Lai was ahead of his two opponents by a comfortable margin, Getty Images

In his victory speech Lai said, "I want to thank the Taiwanese people for writing a new chapter in our democracy." And then he issued words widely seen as a direct jab at China: "We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy," he declared.

But he also expressed hope that his administration will establish "healthy and orderly" based on parity and mutual respect. This was quickly met with Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua saying in a strong and terse statement that "Taiwan is China’s Taiwan," according Xinhua.

Per Taiwan media, all polling stations have reported:

• TPP's Ko Wen-je and Wu Hsin-ying 3,690,466 (26.46%)
• DPP's Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim 5,586,019 (40.05%)
• KMT's Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong 4,671,021 (33.49%)

Turnout was strong, as expected given the shadow of Xi's China is looming large over the comparatively tiny democratic island:

Lai, along with his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim – Taiwan’s former representative to the United States – won a total of more than 5.5 million votes. Taiwan’s electoral system is based on first-past-the-post voting, awarding the victory to the presidential-VP pairing with the highest percentage of votes.
Turnout on the self-ruled island was put at more than 70 percent with some 19.5 million Taiwanese eligible to vote.

Days before Saturday's election, Liu Jianchao, head of international liaison for China's ruling Communist Party, had a rare meeting and candid discussion with representatives of Biden's national security council on Washington, both sides confirmed. This came just days ahead of presidential elections in Taiwan, which has temporarily grabbed the world's attention as other global flashpoints sow unpredictability - specifically Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea. Beijing is said to have relayed to the White House its 'red line' concerning Taiwan and "the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea."

A Chinese readout of the meeting, wherein the US side was led by US deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer, affirmed that Liu "stated China's positions on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea." Important also concerning the timing is that he's highest-ranking Chinese official to visit the US since the Xi-Biden summit.

Per Finer and the US delegation, they talked about "challenges in the Middle East, Russia's war against Ukraine, and cross-strait issues."

Prior to this, just weeks ago, China warned of further trade sanctions on Taiwan in the event the ruling party "stubbornly" commits to supporting independence. Spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office Chen Binhua had addressed a message to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), saying "If the DPP authorities are determined to persevere, continue to stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position, and refuse to repent, we support the relevant departments taking further measures in accordance with the regulations."

On December 27 Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued a rare, ultra-blunt warning against anyone "making Taiwan secede from China by any means," given he said of the self-ruled island that "China's complete reunification is an inevitable trend" and that reunification is "what the people desire." He further urged that the Chinese Communist Party must set its sights of a grander policy of "resolving the Taiwan question in the new era."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1746147971970769239

View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1746147971970769239?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1746147971970769239%7Ctwgr%5E2e1eb7d693f5fda4d2e1cf201453fa6e62392fd1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ftaiwan-elects-william-lai-president-slap-against-china-beijing-responds-stressing


These somewhat fiery words from Xi loomed in the backdrop when Liu was in Washington this past week. The high-ranking diplomat presented similar words of warning to an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations wherein he again underscored the red line: "For China, the Taiwan question is at the very core of the core interests. It's the red line that must never be crossed," Liu said.


The Foreign Ministry then followed the next day (Thurs) by directly warning Washington that it must avoid sending the "wrong signals" to Taiwan. "We urge the US side ... to stop interfering in the local elections in Taiwan in whatever ways, and stop sending wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces," a spokesperson said.

According to a backgrounder from Nikkei:

Taiwan's president is its head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The president and the vice president are directly elected together.
The unicameral legislature, known as the Legislative Yuan, has 113 lawmakers. Seventy-three will be elected under a first-past-the-post system in single-member districts, 34 by party-list proportional representation voting, and six by single non-transferable votes in multimember districts exclusively for Indigenous people.
Presidents are in charge of defense and foreign affairs, including relations with China and the U.S., and appoint the premier, who forms his or her cabinet to run the government. In practice, the premier has much less political power than the president. Parliamentarians in the Legislative Yuan pass laws and decide on budgets, including defense allocations.
Whoever wins on Saturday will succeed current President Tsai Ing-wen on May 20. They will serve until May 2028.

As for what we can expect in the coming months and in this year, Foreign Policy's 5 Predictions for China in 2024 laid out the below analysis of an expected "Taiwan Mini-crisis" sparked by election [emphasis ZH]...

"Taiwan holds a presidential election on Jan. 13, and the year could start with a small crisis in the straits. Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Although Lai has said he won’t call for formal Taiwanese independence or drop the Republic of China name—a red line for Beijing—he has also said that Taiwan’s sovereignty is “a fact” and reminded his fellow candidates that by Beijing’s standards, they are all pro-independence.

A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions. Reports last week about comments made by Xi to U.S. President Joe Biden about reunification with Taiwan when they met in November stirred some panic in Washington, but an invasion remains highly unlikely. It would be risky and difficult, especially when China is struggling with other crises.


Even a victory for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) on Jan. 13 may cause some problems. The KMT is more pro-China than the DPP, but it would hardly hand the keys to the island over to Beijing. Chinese officials might overestimate the significance of a KMT election win, seeing it as a sign of China’s influence in Taiwan. Although 17 percent of Taiwanese voters said in a recent survey that China is their main concern, more than twice that number picked the economy."

 

[energy_wave]

Taiwan used paper ballots didn't they. No way to cheat if they don't use digital voting.

 

[et2]

There’s a whole lot of these elections going on in 2024. Just how many will change things on the global stage?

this was posted a few days ago

Thread 'Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies'
CHAT - Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies

 

[Housecarl]

Biden Says US Doesn’t Support Taiwan Independence After Vote​

President Joe Biden said the US did not support independence for Taiwan, after voters there defied China and returned the governing Democratic Progressive Party — which has sought to limit Beijing’s influence — to a third consecutive term.

“We do not support independence,” Biden told reporters Saturday as he departed the White House for Camp David.

Biden Says US Does Not Support Taiwan’s Independence After Vote

President Joe Biden said the US did not support independence for Taiwan, after voters there defied China and returned the governing Democratic Progressive Party — which has sought to limit Beijing’s influence — to a third consecutive term.

www.bloomberg.com

Sometimes it's better to say nothing at all....

 

[hiwall]

Sometimes it's better to say nothing at all....

He obviously said it on purpose.
Did he just throw Taiwan under the bus?

 

[Warthog]

Looks like the Taiwan folks have show some True Grit!

 

[Donghe Surfer]

Taiwan used paper ballots didn't they. No way to cheat if they don't use digital voting.

You have to bring national ID to your local poll center to be able to vote - an "unheard" of concept.

 

[Dobbin]

Now that the "anti-Communist" has won - expect that the US MEEDIA will quickly drop the Taiwan election - or its ramifications for US elections (Like paper ballots/ID voter/count within 4 hours)

Had the Communist sympathizer won - you'd hear about the "triumph of Democracy" for weeks and perhaps months leading up to the US elections in November.

As it has turned out - the US informational window is closed. (i.e. most US major news sources are China Controlled.)

Dobbin

 

[danielboon]

He obviously said it on purpose.
Did he just throw Taiwan under the bus?

No he just pooping his pants

 

[northern watch]

China Stooges Lose Taiwan Election to Independence Stalwarts.​

The National Pulse
January 13 2024

Vice President William Lai, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has claimed victory in Taiwan’s presidential election. According to results from 95 percent of the polling stations, Lai holds an insurmountable lead over his closest competitor, Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang party, who has reportedly conceded defeat.

Lai, who currently serves as Taiwan’s Vice President, has been a staunch advocate for Taiwan’s independence from China, rejecting President Xi Jinping’s territorial claims amidst increasingly hostile rhetoric.

Lai expressed his determination to safeguard Taiwan from ongoing Chinese threats and intimidation, insisting his government will aim to replace confrontation with dialogue in its exchanges with mainland China.

Chen Binhua, the PRC’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman, warned last Wednesday that if Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) “continue to stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position… we support the relevant departments taking further measures in accordance with the regulations.”


Lai’s electoral success may incite tensions with China, which derided him as a dangerous separatist prior to the election and dismissed his calls for discussions. The DPP outrightly rejects the “one China principle”, considering Taiwan and Hong Kong indivisible parts of the country. Despite Taiwan’s independence since the 1940s, China persists in its claims over the island nation and its territories, and has threatened force to accomplish its objectives.

China Stooges Lose Taiwan Election to Independence Stalwarts.

Vice President William Lai, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has claimed victory in Taiwan's presidential election.

thenationalpulse.com

 

[colonel holman]

View attachment 455505

Boston tea party moment?

 

[northern watch]

Boston tea party moment?

Yes