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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/int...k_june_29_2008
Intelligence Guidance: Week of June 29, 2008
June 27, 2008 | 2216 GMT
Likud Party chief Benjamin Netanyahu
1. The ongoing Israeli airstrike mystery: Numerous theories have been generated about the Sept. 6, 2007, airstrike by Israel in Syria. It is still not clear what was hit or why, but a spate of new theories are emerging ranging from claims the target was everything from a facility for the production of the nerve gas VX to an Iranian storage facility for nuclear weapons. The most important theory is that the Syrians passed information regarding the existence of the facility to the Israelis via the Turks, explaining Syrian reticence to condemn Israel and the current Israeli-Syrian negotiations. The September 2007 incident is more than ancient history. Now that Israeli domestic politics have settled down, the biggest threat to a Syrian-Israel deal is dead — meaning the more we understand what happened Sept. 6, 2007, the more we can understand and forecast the current negotiations. The airstrike touches everything, so we need to gather the theories and figure this out.
2. A political compromise in Israel:The Kadima-Labor party compromise this week means that whether or not Olmert stays on as prime minister, Israel’s current government probably will remain in place. The deal massively facilitates the ongoing Israeli-Syrian peace talks. Elsewhere, the French are assuring Damascus that even Likud is all for a peace treaty. With Syrians assured about the prospects for peace, we should start seeing more concrete action on their part against Hezbollah. This is where Lebanon will get really interesting, to say the least.
3. U.S.-Iranian relations: The U.S. opening to Iran is, of course, crucial. We need to understand where this idea originated and why it was floated. Our working theory is that it was a good cop/bad cop arrangement between Israel and the United States designed to weaken Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s position. That interpretation may or may not be right, but either way, it was certainly not a trivial event. It is fading from public attention so we need to really focus on it.
4. Israel, Syria and the Sarkozy incident: The suicide or accidental death of a Druze soldier in the Israeli army while on duty during a visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Israel needs more attention. Though the accident vs. lone gunmen debate isn’t important, the fact that the victim was Druze raises an important question. The Israeli-Syrian talks will strengthen Syria in Lebanon. The French are playing a role in that process. One of the big losers from this process would be the Druze community in Lebanon, which has been hostile to the Syrians since the killing of former Syrian Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Pure speculation: Was this a hit on Sarkozy and/or Olmert initiated by Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze in Lebanon? Israeli and Syrian Druze operate separately, but not in isolation. We have no evidence for the conjecture, but it must be looked at.
5. Pakistan’s Taliban threat: In recent weeks it has become clear the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan has catapulted itself out of the tribal areas and eastward into the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Islamabad’s writ in the NWFP has weakened to the point that several large areas of the province effectively are either lawless or under Taliban control, with the provincial capital of Peshawar at risk of falling to the Pashtun jihadist movement. Meanwhile, U.S. forces in Afghanistan responding to an increase in activity in the eastern areas of the country have increased overt cross-border operations on Pakistani soil. Caught between Washington and the jihadists, the new civilian government in Islamabad has given army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani complete authority to carry out a military campaign as he deems fit. We need to watch the behavior of Pakistan’s security forces and the jihadists to see if Islamabad can regain control of the province or if the situation will further deteriorate.
6. Another Mexico killing: While the Middle East is a focus, Mexico also must be looked at carefully. The investigator looking into the killing of the chief of the national police was killed this week. While there also was heavy fighting between cartels in the border area, the real issue is the intimidation of Mexican police officials in the capital. This could lead to a breakdown in which investigators, fond of their lives, pull back on investigations. We need to be on top of this, distinguishing between tactical violence and strategic strikes like this one. There is general complacency that the Mexicans can handle this situation. Let’s see if it that complacency is warranted.
7. Moscow and the Caucasus: The Armenians and Abkhazians visited Moscow this week after meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev just two weeks ago. The Georgians remain bellicose but increasingly isolated. The Russians still need to respond to Kosovo, and Georgia appears to be the spot. The Russians have been jangling the Georgian nerves for months. How long will this go on, and does Moscow plan anything more?
8. Oil: Oil still needs to be watched. A lot of countries are talking about a lot of laws and regulations. The growing comforting theory is that high prices are the result of corporations and speculators and if they were regulated, prices would go down. As regulations start rolling out of the world’s legislatures, they will be contradictory and complex. If oil prices increase by another $10, count on a spate of these regulations in major countries. We need to start calculating how the markets may respond and be disrupted by these actions. In the 1970s there were plans for oil rationing in the United States. That may not happen for a while in the United States but it is a possibility in other parts of the world.
9. The Olympic threat: China is shutting down for the Olympics. Cell phones aren’t being sold and Internet connectivity is being disrupted; this is being explained as for the convenience of visitors. In the meantime, China’s visa situation is in near lock-down phase. The Chinese are probably regretting the whole idea of hosting the Olympics at this point as they brace for internal unrest and foreign demonstrators, challenges coming just as high commodity prices pressure their entire economic system to the breaking point. The International Olympic Committee has floated delaying the Olympics if the smog is too bad. Meanwhile, Beijing is taking steps that will temporarily stabilize the economy. The central government really wants to get through this period. But if the Olympics turn into a fiasco logistically and politically, what are the chances of a purge of second-tier leadership in the Communist Party of China (CPC) — particularly of Xi Jinping, who has the responsibility of seeing that the Olympics will be a success? Who would replace them? What does this do to the CPC’s hold on the power it will have to groom new successors to President Hu Jintao? The purge probably won’t happen, but it is definitely worth thinking about.
10. South Africa and the Zimbabwe challenge: Zimbabwe is flaring up again as we expected. This is not interesting in itself unless you happen to live there, but keep your eyes on South Africa. This is a defining moment for the most powerful country in Sub-Saharan Africa. If Pretoria is ever going to play in the big leagues, it will start to do so in Zimbabwe.
11. France at the EU helm: The French take control of the EU agenda July 1, and will hold it for the rest of the year. The Lisbon Treaty is at best stalled for a couple of years. There are many aspects of the European Union that the French traded away to get things they wanted — like the political union — in other areas. But de Gaulle is gone and his legacy is dead. Now the French are concerned that their European creation could boss them around rather than the other way around. This is France’s chance to twist the European Union in a direction better suited to meet post-Cold War geography. How will they do that?
12. Chavez under fire: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is acting like a man under pressure. That’s not exactly a shocker because he is under a great deal of pressure. Cuba’s steady shift away from Castroism is robbing him of his ideological ally, and the slide of Argentina (a state Venezuela has kept on life support) into economic dysfunction robs Venezuela of its most credible claim to being a regional power. His system is crumbling around him, but so long as oil is strong Chavez is ok. Or is he?
EURASIA
* July 1: The EU presidency will rotate from Slovenia to one of Europe’s powerhouses, France, just weeks after Ireland blocked the EU Lisbon Treaty
* July 3-6: New Russian President Dimtri Medvedev will visit Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, where one of the top topics will be energy. Medvedev also will meet with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in Kazakhstan on the sidelines of a celebration for Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
* June 28-29: The U.S. military will officially hand over security of Iraq’s western Sunni province of Anbar to Iraqi forces
* June 29: The World Petroleum Congress will be held in Madrid to address current developments in the energy sector. Representatives from more than 52 countries, including the Arab world, and more than 120 ministers will attend. High-ranking members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency also will attend
* June 29: The Israeli Cabinet will vote on a possible prisoner exchange with Hezbollah
EAST ASIA
* June 27-28: Ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States will wrap up the G-8 summit in Japan’s city of Kyoto
June 28: An Interfaith tour sponsored by the Indonesian Conference on Religion and Peace will travel around Jakarta
* June 27: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Seoul, South Korea, immediately after attending a meeting of G-8 foreign ministers in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss the six-party talks
* June 29: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Beijing to discuss the six-party talks
* June 29: Mongolia will hold legislative elections; two ultranationalists are running
* June 30: Deputy Japanese Foreign Minister Osamu Uno will arrive in Yemen for a two-day visit to boost bilateral cooperation on all fronts; discussions probably will include anti-terrorism efforts, Iraq, Somalia and Sudan
LATIN AMERICA
* June 30-July 1: The Common Market of the South will meet in Tucuman, Argentina. Participating countries include Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia
AFRICA
* June 30-July 1: Egypt will host the African Union summit of African heads of states and governments
COUNTERTERROSIM/SECURITY
* June 28: Members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult released sarin gas at Matsumoto, Japan, 14 years ago, killing seven and injuring 660
* June 28: The U.S. military will transfer control of security in Anbar province to Iraqi forces, Anbar province Gov. Mamun Sami Rasheed has said. Anbar will be the 10th of Iraq’s 18 provinces returned to Iraqi security control since the U.S.-led invasion, but the first Sunni Arab region
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/int...k_june_29_2008
Intelligence Guidance: Week of June 29, 2008
June 27, 2008 | 2216 GMT
Likud Party chief Benjamin Netanyahu
1. The ongoing Israeli airstrike mystery: Numerous theories have been generated about the Sept. 6, 2007, airstrike by Israel in Syria. It is still not clear what was hit or why, but a spate of new theories are emerging ranging from claims the target was everything from a facility for the production of the nerve gas VX to an Iranian storage facility for nuclear weapons. The most important theory is that the Syrians passed information regarding the existence of the facility to the Israelis via the Turks, explaining Syrian reticence to condemn Israel and the current Israeli-Syrian negotiations. The September 2007 incident is more than ancient history. Now that Israeli domestic politics have settled down, the biggest threat to a Syrian-Israel deal is dead — meaning the more we understand what happened Sept. 6, 2007, the more we can understand and forecast the current negotiations. The airstrike touches everything, so we need to gather the theories and figure this out.
2. A political compromise in Israel:The Kadima-Labor party compromise this week means that whether or not Olmert stays on as prime minister, Israel’s current government probably will remain in place. The deal massively facilitates the ongoing Israeli-Syrian peace talks. Elsewhere, the French are assuring Damascus that even Likud is all for a peace treaty. With Syrians assured about the prospects for peace, we should start seeing more concrete action on their part against Hezbollah. This is where Lebanon will get really interesting, to say the least.
3. U.S.-Iranian relations: The U.S. opening to Iran is, of course, crucial. We need to understand where this idea originated and why it was floated. Our working theory is that it was a good cop/bad cop arrangement between Israel and the United States designed to weaken Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s position. That interpretation may or may not be right, but either way, it was certainly not a trivial event. It is fading from public attention so we need to really focus on it.
4. Israel, Syria and the Sarkozy incident: The suicide or accidental death of a Druze soldier in the Israeli army while on duty during a visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Israel needs more attention. Though the accident vs. lone gunmen debate isn’t important, the fact that the victim was Druze raises an important question. The Israeli-Syrian talks will strengthen Syria in Lebanon. The French are playing a role in that process. One of the big losers from this process would be the Druze community in Lebanon, which has been hostile to the Syrians since the killing of former Syrian Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Pure speculation: Was this a hit on Sarkozy and/or Olmert initiated by Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze in Lebanon? Israeli and Syrian Druze operate separately, but not in isolation. We have no evidence for the conjecture, but it must be looked at.
5. Pakistan’s Taliban threat: In recent weeks it has become clear the Taliban insurgency in Pakistan has catapulted itself out of the tribal areas and eastward into the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). Islamabad’s writ in the NWFP has weakened to the point that several large areas of the province effectively are either lawless or under Taliban control, with the provincial capital of Peshawar at risk of falling to the Pashtun jihadist movement. Meanwhile, U.S. forces in Afghanistan responding to an increase in activity in the eastern areas of the country have increased overt cross-border operations on Pakistani soil. Caught between Washington and the jihadists, the new civilian government in Islamabad has given army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani complete authority to carry out a military campaign as he deems fit. We need to watch the behavior of Pakistan’s security forces and the jihadists to see if Islamabad can regain control of the province or if the situation will further deteriorate.
6. Another Mexico killing: While the Middle East is a focus, Mexico also must be looked at carefully. The investigator looking into the killing of the chief of the national police was killed this week. While there also was heavy fighting between cartels in the border area, the real issue is the intimidation of Mexican police officials in the capital. This could lead to a breakdown in which investigators, fond of their lives, pull back on investigations. We need to be on top of this, distinguishing between tactical violence and strategic strikes like this one. There is general complacency that the Mexicans can handle this situation. Let’s see if it that complacency is warranted.
7. Moscow and the Caucasus: The Armenians and Abkhazians visited Moscow this week after meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev just two weeks ago. The Georgians remain bellicose but increasingly isolated. The Russians still need to respond to Kosovo, and Georgia appears to be the spot. The Russians have been jangling the Georgian nerves for months. How long will this go on, and does Moscow plan anything more?
8. Oil: Oil still needs to be watched. A lot of countries are talking about a lot of laws and regulations. The growing comforting theory is that high prices are the result of corporations and speculators and if they were regulated, prices would go down. As regulations start rolling out of the world’s legislatures, they will be contradictory and complex. If oil prices increase by another $10, count on a spate of these regulations in major countries. We need to start calculating how the markets may respond and be disrupted by these actions. In the 1970s there were plans for oil rationing in the United States. That may not happen for a while in the United States but it is a possibility in other parts of the world.
9. The Olympic threat: China is shutting down for the Olympics. Cell phones aren’t being sold and Internet connectivity is being disrupted; this is being explained as for the convenience of visitors. In the meantime, China’s visa situation is in near lock-down phase. The Chinese are probably regretting the whole idea of hosting the Olympics at this point as they brace for internal unrest and foreign demonstrators, challenges coming just as high commodity prices pressure their entire economic system to the breaking point. The International Olympic Committee has floated delaying the Olympics if the smog is too bad. Meanwhile, Beijing is taking steps that will temporarily stabilize the economy. The central government really wants to get through this period. But if the Olympics turn into a fiasco logistically and politically, what are the chances of a purge of second-tier leadership in the Communist Party of China (CPC) — particularly of Xi Jinping, who has the responsibility of seeing that the Olympics will be a success? Who would replace them? What does this do to the CPC’s hold on the power it will have to groom new successors to President Hu Jintao? The purge probably won’t happen, but it is definitely worth thinking about.
10. South Africa and the Zimbabwe challenge: Zimbabwe is flaring up again as we expected. This is not interesting in itself unless you happen to live there, but keep your eyes on South Africa. This is a defining moment for the most powerful country in Sub-Saharan Africa. If Pretoria is ever going to play in the big leagues, it will start to do so in Zimbabwe.
11. France at the EU helm: The French take control of the EU agenda July 1, and will hold it for the rest of the year. The Lisbon Treaty is at best stalled for a couple of years. There are many aspects of the European Union that the French traded away to get things they wanted — like the political union — in other areas. But de Gaulle is gone and his legacy is dead. Now the French are concerned that their European creation could boss them around rather than the other way around. This is France’s chance to twist the European Union in a direction better suited to meet post-Cold War geography. How will they do that?
12. Chavez under fire: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is acting like a man under pressure. That’s not exactly a shocker because he is under a great deal of pressure. Cuba’s steady shift away from Castroism is robbing him of his ideological ally, and the slide of Argentina (a state Venezuela has kept on life support) into economic dysfunction robs Venezuela of its most credible claim to being a regional power. His system is crumbling around him, but so long as oil is strong Chavez is ok. Or is he?
EURASIA
* July 1: The EU presidency will rotate from Slovenia to one of Europe’s powerhouses, France, just weeks after Ireland blocked the EU Lisbon Treaty
* July 3-6: New Russian President Dimtri Medvedev will visit Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, where one of the top topics will be energy. Medvedev also will meet with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in Kazakhstan on the sidelines of a celebration for Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
* June 28-29: The U.S. military will officially hand over security of Iraq’s western Sunni province of Anbar to Iraqi forces
* June 29: The World Petroleum Congress will be held in Madrid to address current developments in the energy sector. Representatives from more than 52 countries, including the Arab world, and more than 120 ministers will attend. High-ranking members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency also will attend
* June 29: The Israeli Cabinet will vote on a possible prisoner exchange with Hezbollah
EAST ASIA
* June 27-28: Ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States will wrap up the G-8 summit in Japan’s city of Kyoto
June 28: An Interfaith tour sponsored by the Indonesian Conference on Religion and Peace will travel around Jakarta
* June 27: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Seoul, South Korea, immediately after attending a meeting of G-8 foreign ministers in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss the six-party talks
* June 29: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Beijing to discuss the six-party talks
* June 29: Mongolia will hold legislative elections; two ultranationalists are running
* June 30: Deputy Japanese Foreign Minister Osamu Uno will arrive in Yemen for a two-day visit to boost bilateral cooperation on all fronts; discussions probably will include anti-terrorism efforts, Iraq, Somalia and Sudan
LATIN AMERICA
* June 30-July 1: The Common Market of the South will meet in Tucuman, Argentina. Participating countries include Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia
AFRICA
* June 30-July 1: Egypt will host the African Union summit of African heads of states and governments
COUNTERTERROSIM/SECURITY
* June 28: Members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult released sarin gas at Matsumoto, Japan, 14 years ago, killing seven and injuring 660
* June 28: The U.S. military will transfer control of security in Anbar province to Iraqi forces, Anbar province Gov. Mamun Sami Rasheed has said. Anbar will be the 10th of Iraq’s 18 provinces returned to Iraqi security control since the U.S.-led invasion, but the first Sunni Arab region