Celestial Space Weather/Sun Spot

[Publius]

Speculation or predictions for this new Solar Cycle is of continued lower solar output for the next 11 years which is the length of time of each solar cycle.
It may come on strong for a short time and then quickly fade I.E. Lots of Sunspots and then stop and go back to Sun with long stretches of no Sunspots.

 

[Martinhouse]

Suppossing that we get lots of sunspots for a while, I wonder if our weather will go back to what we're used to for a while, or if it will get wilder than ever?

 

[packyderms_wife]

Speculation or predictions for this new Solar Cycle is of continued lower solar output for the next 11 years which is the length of time of each solar cycle.
It may come on strong for a short time and then quickly fade I.E. Lots of Sunspots and then stop and go back to Sun with long stretches of no Sunspots.

Jupiters transit around the sun is 11.86 years. Last month it was at it's closest approach to the Sun in a hundred plus years. I definitely expect this lull to last another 11 years if not 25ish years. Couple this with the fact that our solar system crossed the galactic plane, well it's still traversing the GP, I'd say a mini ice age if not full on ice age is in order.

 

[Bubble Head]

Jupiters transit around the sun is 11.86 years. Last month it was at it's closest approach to the Sun in a hundred plus years. I definitely expect this lull to last another 11 years if not 25ish years. Couple this with the fact that our solar system crossed the galactic plane, well it's still traversing the GP, I'd say a mini ice age if not full on ice age is in order.

Thanks for bringing this up about Jupiter. I was having a conversation with DW about the enormous forces the Sun has to hold Jupiter in orbit but the enormous force Jupiter must exert on the Sun and other planets can not be dismissed. I was unaware of it being at its closest approach to the Sun. It moves very slowly around the Sun and given the Volcanoes going off on earth I would venture to say there is a relationship to earth weather. Got Wood.

Yes DW and I have discussions of this sort all the time.

 

[Publius]

Jupiters transit around the sun is 11.86 years. Last month it was at it's closest approach to the Sun in a hundred plus years. I definitely expect this lull to last another 11 years if not 25ish years. Couple this with the fact that our solar system crossed the galactic plane, well it's still traversing the GP, I'd say a mini ice age if not full on ice age is in order.

Yes we have a lot going on all at the same time and the crossing of the galactic plane does not happen over night but takes many decades. Not sure how long between crossings but it's the first time in history humans have noticed this and recording/documenting event taking place.

 

[Publius]

Well That Did Not Last Long!

The last set of Sunspots we had one Sunspot with a different magnetic polarity and it's what they look for when the Sun starts a new solar cycle.
So today we have a second Sunspot with this same magnetic polarity and they are now saying its the start of Solar cycle 25. Have to wait and see what else comes out in the next few days or the next Sunspot that shows up if it's official.

So as of today we have a new Sunspot.
We have 118 Spotless days so far this year.
We now have 71 days with Sunspots.
The percentage of the year without Sunspots is right now at 63% and subject to change with the number of days with this new sunspot.

Yesterdays new Sunspot (AR2744) disappeared almost as quick as it appeared so we're back to a blank Sun once again.
New stretch of Spotless Sun and 119 spotless days and counting

 

[Publius]

Ok we have a new Sunspot forming and we just went 13 days without Sunspots jusy one day short of two weeks.

So the spotless days count for the year 2019 is now 202.

 

[packyderms_wife]

http://www.solarham.net/


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center
UPDATED 2019 July 22 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low with a spotless visible disk. An area
of enhanced plage, with possible spot development, was observed near
N05W17. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 22-24 Jul.

 

[Publius]

Its getting a little crazy with the Sunspots again and no Spots!
We had one Sunspot forming and it seems to have faded away and had do the math to get the number of days with Sunspots and without.

So as of today July 24 we are 205 days into the year 2019.
We now have a count of 72 days with Sunspots.
We had 133 Spotless days so far this year.
The percentage of the year without Sunspots is now at 65%.

 

[Martinhouse]

As always, thanks for posting this!

 

[Publius]

So after a 13 a day streach of Spotless Sun on the 14 day we now have a new Sunspot form in the middel of the Sun.

As of now we are 218 days into the year 2019.
We had 73 days with Sunspots.
145 days blank or no spots.
So far we are 67% of the year without Sunspots.

 

[TxGal]

Wow...thanks for posting these updates!

 

[Publius]

With Solar Minima we get an increased earth quake activity along with volcanic activity.
Starting from about August 2 to the 4 of the month we had a good number of volcanos erupt and one of them was a VEI4 eruption that sent ash to 63,000Ft = 11.9 miles now this ash plume was picked by satellite and the photo I seen from overhead showed a round plume circle I'm guessing covered 100 miles across now this one happened on Papua New Guinea thats in the southern hemisphere.

Three or four other volcanos shot ash ranging anywhere from 25,000Ft to 45,000Ft
Note we are not hearing anything about these eruptions on the news and any volcano blowing ash 30,000Ft or greater is a serious eruption.

 

[Publius]

Its getting a little crazy folks as we're back to blank Sun again and racking up the number of Spotless days fast.

 

[Martinhouse]

That one new sunspot sure didn't last long!

 

[Publius]

Normally I wait until there is a new Sunspot or one disappears, but we just went another seven days without Sunspots.


We are now 226 days into the year 2019

we've had 151 Sptoless days at this point in time.
Only 75 days with Sunspots.
As of now we are at 67% of the year without Sunspots/blank Sun

 

[Martinhouse]

An update with no news is still an update. Thanks!

 

[Publius]

Now at another 14 days without Sunspots.

Its July 21, We're now 233 days into the year 2019.
With the updates we've had only 75 days with Sunspots.
we at 157 days without Sunspots thats a little more than twice the numbers of days with sunspots.
The percentage of the Year without Sunspots is now 68%

 

[Publius]

We just went a 21 day stretch of no Sunspots so thats three weeks worth of spotless Sun.

Now at 165 days of no Sunspots and at this point in time 69% of the year without Sunspots.

 

[Publius]

New update! We just went a 26 day stretch of no Sunspots and now have a new but small Sunspot and not sure how long this one will last as of late they appear and then fade away the same day.

Ok; It's September 2, we are now 244 days into the year 2019.

As of today We now have 76 days with Sunspots.
We have racked up 169 days of blank Sun I.E. Spotless Sun.
At this time we are at 69% of the year without Sunspots.

I also like to point out the following!! Will we exceed last years spotless days count?
The year 2019 as of now 169 days of no Sunspots.
The year 2018 was 221 Spotless days
The year 2017 was 104 Spotless days
The year 2016 was 32 potless days

 

[Martinhouse]

Nice! I hope you'll post the list of comparisons again at the end of the year!

I've recently started listening to the Suspicious Observer short videos each morning, and the guy there mentioned that about the small sunspots appearing and then suddenly disappearing again soon after.

 

[Publius]

Starting a New Stretch of Spotless Sun!

Ok; so we are now back to a blank Spotless Sun after a two day run of Sunspot.

Counting day one "1" of a new spotless stretch and now at 170 spotless days and with 69% of the year without Sunspots.

We may break 2018s 221 day of no Sunspots.

 

[Publius]

Update With Some Additional Important Info!!

Ok; We just went another 14 days with no Sunspots and racking up the Spotless day count.

As of now we are 260 days into the year 2019.
We had only 77 days with Sunspots.
We now have 183 days with no Sunspots.
The percentage of the year without Sunspots is at 70%.

So far this year we've had a good number of Volcanos erupting and the big ones this year are!

Kiral Island, Raikoke Volcano ( North of Japan a chain of islands) on June 26 and the ash and gases went to 38,000. Foot.

August 3, New Guinea, Ulawun Volcano erupting into the lower Stratosphere.

August 24, Sheveluch Volcano (Russia) erupts to 70,000. feet.

We have people that are doing research and putting out high altitude balloons in August to measure the aerosol layers in the Stratosphere and they are finding gases are 20 times thicker than normal and claiming this was from the Raikoke Volcano eruption back in June 26, of this year.
Just wait and see when they do this again to gage what the Sheveluch eruption has added to this mix.

 

[Martinhouse]

Interesting about those volcanoes! Thank you!

 

[Publius]

We just went 21 days without Sunspots thats a three week stretch and still on going as I write this.

I'm seeing very early morning Sun rise with much Purple and Purple hues and this is because of the Sulfur Dioxide emissions from all the volcanic eruptions, this sulfur can linger in the upper atmosphere for three years or little longer, the sulfur in the upper atmosphere turns into another compound of acid that reflects sunlight and the suns heat back into space thus lower the temperature globally.


As of now we are at 267 days into the year 2019.
We've only had 75 days with no Sunspots.(***)
Now at 192 spotless days for the year.
The percentage of the year without Sunspots is at 72%.

(***)( Somehow I messed up on the math on a early post showing two days more)

 

[TxGal]

Thank you, Publius!

We sure do have a lot of active volcanoes. We actually saw purple evening skies a few weeks back. True purple, and a few weeks later, vivid red, like Mars....not the usual vivid colors we get here in Texas. It was just darn eerie.

 

[Publius]

Ok; We have gone a 27 day stretch without Sunspots just one day short of a four weeks worth stretch.
The spotless runs are adding up and fast folks!


Its October 1, 2019 and we are now 274 days into the year.
At this point in time there has been 199 Spotless days.
We've had only 75 days this year with Sunspots.
We are also upto 73% of the year without Sunspots.

 

[TxGal]

Oh my....thanks for posting this update!

 

[Martinhouse]

Publius, that's one day short of a FOUR week period, not three. Which is even MORE remarkable. Thanks!

I'm glad you are keeping up with the sunspot count...none of the other places I check are doing it on a reliable basis.

 

[Publius]

Publius, that's one day short of a FOUR week period, not three. Which is even MORE remarkable. Thanks!

I'm glad you are keeping up with the sunspot count...none of the other places I check are doing it on a reliable basis.

Yes you are right I don't know what I was thinking when I did that and thinks for pointing that out I corrected it.

 

[Martinhouse]

Don't worry about it. I can do simple math, but I sure don't know how to find information like what you've been posting here.

Whichever number it might be, it's still pretty impressive, isn't it?

 

[Publius]

We are back to blank Sun again as in no Sunspots and that last Sunspot was said to be part of the last Sun Cycle and I'm not so sure the last solar cycle has ended.

So we're starting off again with 200 blank days.
Due to the resent Sunspot activity we are now down from 73% to 72% of the year without Sunspots

 

[TxGal]

We are back to blank Sun again as in no Sunspots and that last Sunspot was said to be part of the last Sun Cycle and I'm not so sure the last solar cycle has ended.

So we're starting off again with 200 blank days.
Due to the resent Sunspot activity we are now down from 73% to 72% of the year without Sunspots

Wow...72%...good grief.

 

[Sam2]

Publius, thanks for keeping up with the sunspots.

I don't know if you might already have a calendar application for which you can configure, or if it might be useful to you.

This is the code which produces the result on the next line... I added the word day, for my own benefit, to show the number of days since the beginning of the year.

Day %j - %m-%e-%Y
Day 277 - 10-4-2019

 

[Publius]

We just went another 14 days without Sunspots (two weeks worth) and we are racking up the spotless day count!


Its October 17, 2019 and we are now 290 days into the year.
We have now racked up 213 spotless days.
Up to now We've only had 77 days with Sunspots this year.
The percentage of the year without Sunspots is at 73%.

We are coming up on another mile mark and will keep everyone up to date when it happens.

 

[Martinhouse]

Incredible. As always, thanks for posting this!

 

[Publius]

Update With More Bad News!

We just went another three week stretch without any Sunspots thats 21 days.


Its October 24, and we are 297 days into the year 2019.
We've had up to now 220 days without Sunspots.
Up to now We've only had 77 days with Sunspots.
The percentage of the year without Sunspot is up to 74%.


Now for some more bad news!
The last time we reached 73% of the year without Sunspots was the year 2008 and that was the total of spotless days for that year and we just exceeded that.
We still have 68 more days left to the year 2019.

Also so noting we are 220 days into the year 2019 and if we go one more day without a Sunspot we will have matched last years spotless Sunspot count total of 221 days and keep in mind we still have another 68 days to go to the end of the year.

 

[TxGal]

Wow....thanks, Publius. It sure seems that we're heading down a long, dark road - and seriously, no pun intended.

 

[Publius]

Ok; it's official we just matched 2018's number of Spotless days of 221 and we're now at 222 days without Sunspots.
Will it go four weeks in a row or five?

 

[Publius]

It has now gone a total of four weeks without Sunspots and now at 227 Spotless days and 75% of the year without Sunspots.