ECON So What Happened To Silver??

I disagree with most metals companies that metals are an investment. There is a caveat to that though, the numismatics can be considered investments but even these are cyclical with the premiums depending on rarity. I bought a bunch of $10 liberty MS-62 and MS-63 for a few percent over melt value and there have been times where they fetch 30% over melt or more so those could be considered investment quality as well as the extremely rare ones. But bullion, they aren’t investments.

As far as long term and what that means? I’ve been stacking since 1990 and I’ve bought silver @ $4 and @ $65 and I value every ounce the same. They are my savings account that doesn’t lose it’s principal (over time) unlike cash in a savings or checking account. The gold I sold to buy my truck was acquired at less than $500 an ounce and sold for close to 4K. Many would say that is an 8 bagger but in reality the gold preserved it’s value while the currency hasn’t.
 
Hfcomms said:
The gold I sold to buy my truck was acquired at less than $500 an ounce and sold for close to 4K. Many would say that is an 8 bagger but in reality the gold preserved it’s value while the currency hasn’t.
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Didn't the costs for the truck rise, year after year, just like the value of your gold rose?

So, what did you really gain?

Hfcomms said:
They are my savings account that doesn’t lose it’s principal (over time) unlike cash in a savings or checking account.
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Huh??

Cash in a savings or checking account doesn't lose principal over time... LOL...
 
King Samson said:
Didn't the costs for the truck rise, year after year, just like the value of your gold rose?

So, what did you really gain?


Huh??

Cash in a savings or checking account doesn't lose principal over time... LOL...
Click to expand...

In Jan of 2000 gold was $284 dollars an ounce and ten ounces of gold cost $2840 obviously. A median priced Nissan Frontier in Jan of 2000 went for $19000 or 66 ounces of gold at $284 an ounce.

In Jan 1st of 2026 gold was $4321 an ounce and my 2026 Nissan Frontier cost $43,000 or 9.9 ounces of gold. So what did I really gain? Do the simple math. The gold more than held its value over the rapidly depreciating currency. What would of cost me 66 ounces of gold 26 years ago now cost 10 ounces of gold today.

And a checking or savings account doesn't lose principal over time? Really? Taking an average APY earned between 2000 and 2026 according to the Grok as I'm too lazy to do the math;

Around 0.5% to 0.8% APY on average (national averages for simple/traditional savings accounts), though this varies significantly by year, bank type, and data source.

If I was to take that $2840 dollars in Jan of 2000 and instead of buying gold and just left it in the savings account with compounded interest according to the Grok:

Approximately $3,050–$3,300 (very rough estimate), representing total growth of roughly 7–16% over 26 years.

Nominally I would of started out with $2840 so you could say that since I have say $3300 in January I didn't lose any principal but what about factoring for inflation of the dollar between 2000 and 2026? Using the dollar inflation calculator;

If I bought something in January of 2000 for the $2840 today that same item would cost me $5507 for a cumulative 93.9% rate of inflation. So yes, I'd definitely say my principal isn't intact and the cancer of inflation has steadily ate it away and even with compounding interest in a checking or savings account hasn't even come close to maintaining my purchasing power.
 
Hfcomms said:
In Jan 1st of 2026 gold was $4321 an ounce and my 2026 Nissan Frontier cost $43,000 or 9.9 ounces of gold. So what did I really gain? Do the simple math. The gold more than held its value over the rapidly depreciating currency. What would of cost me 66 ounces of gold 26 years ago now cost 10 ounces of gold today.
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I knew you'd use an abnormal point in time for PM values, as your basis... What about the 10 years before January, how was it doing?

Hfcomms said:
So yes, I'd definitely say my principal isn't intact and the cancer of inflation has steadily ate it away and even with compounding interest in a checking or savings account hasn't even come close to maintaining my purchasing power.
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You do also know the "cancer of inflation" is why your truck went from $19K to $43K, right? And, that this "cancer" also had an effect on why the value of your gold went up too, right?

Hfcomms said:
And a checking or savings account doesn't lose principal over time? Really?
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I also think you're confused on the definition of "principal". Here, this might help:

Understanding Principal in Investments​

Definition of Principal​

The principal is the original amount of money that you invest. This can include:

  • The initial deposit made when opening an investment account.
  • The face value of a bond, which is the amount owed to the bondholder at maturity.

Importance of Principal​

The principal serves as the foundation for your investment. It is crucial for understanding how your investment grows over time. Here are key points about principal:

  • Investment Growth: The returns you earn on your investment are calculated based on the principal amount. For example, if you invest $1,000 and it grows to $1,500, the principal remains $1,000, while the $500 is your earnings.
  • Return of Principal: This term refers to getting back your original investment amount without accounting for any gains. It is essential for investors focused on capital preservation.
  • Return on Principal: This refers to the profits made from your investment, excluding the original capital. For instance, if your investment grows to $1,500, your return on principal is $500.
The principal part of an investment is the original amount of money you put in, such as the initial deposit in an investment account or the face value of a bond.
smartasset.com paramountwealth.com

Hfcomms said:
Nominally I would of started out with $2840 so you could say that since I have say $3300 in January I didn't lose any principal but what about factoring for inflation of the dollar between 2000 and 2026?
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Now, let's help with inflation, since all your examples above, revolve around that economic principal:

History of Inflation in the United States​

The United States has experienced inflation for over a century, with official records of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) available since 1913.

Key Historical Points​

  • Start of CPI Data: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting data for the CPI in 1913.
  • Inflation Trends: Inflation has been a consistent economic phenomenon since the early 20th century, with various periods of high and low inflation.
The U.S. has experienced inflation for over a century, with official Consumer Price Index (CPI) data available back to 1913.
inflationdata.com Macrotrends

EVERYTHING has experienced inflation. Goods, Services, Pickup Trucks, Investments, PMs and yes, even Wages... don't forget Wages, which all the PM Bulls ALWAYS forget about.

So, back to Principal. Say you had $1000 to spend, and were considering spending it on Silver, or putting it in a High Yield Savings account, paying 4% APR, on Jan. 23rd, when Silver was $100., and you bought 10 silver rounds.

Where would be today, July 18th, with that initial Principal? Which investment could you pull your initial $1000 out of today? Which account could return your complete principal and which one have you lost principal?
 
Let the readers decide for themselves. As I've said countless times and even on this thread the AU & AG are not a get rich quick scheme but they do very well at preserving and even enhancing their value over time as I demonstrated. You had asked me about the cost of my truck rising year over year and asked me what I gained and I showed you. Sorry you don't like it.
 
King Samson said:
knew you'd use an abnormal point in time for PM values, as your basis... What about the 10 years before January, how was it doing?
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For those that have bought over the span of two centuries, that is not an abnormal point in time. I get your points, but the metals have a very useful place and supply a lucrative service as Hfcomms real life example.…

I for one, wish that I would have been able to purchase more IBonds in that same time frame in the year 2000. Talk about an easy investment, wow. Another tool to have been used like the metals...

As always, until you cash out or use your magic beans to get to the head of the line, what is the value of any portfolio…

The ultimate irony is Bitcoin, talk about income cost averaging. My God. We all could have done much, much better at paying attention. Talk about return of principal…
Then again, it’s always about when you cash out. I believe that’s the rub on anything… :kaid:
 
What happens to ones fiat accounts when one has a divorce, or a lawsuit? Or a bankruptcy?

BTW, cash in a savings account does indeed lose value, even with interest. It's called inflation, plus its a liability that everyone knows about, especially the scammers.

Just saying.

Every one has a big plan until they get punched in the face. Why not have a plan B stacked in real coin?
 
It’s funny but I looked up those few IBonds I bought around 2000, and I’m going to have to cash them come 2030 :rolleyes: . The good news is that those few metals I purchased at the same time have no expiration date…..:lkick:
Funny how that works. Now, the bigger question is, what is my expiration date…:shkr:
 
BUBBAHOTEPT said:
It’s funny but I looked up those few IBonds I bought around 2000, and I’m going to have to cash them come 2030 :rolleyes: . The good news is that those few metals I purchased at the same time have no expiration date…..:lkick:
Funny how that works. Now, the bigger question is, what is my expiration date…:shkr:
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I did my parents investing.
3 assets. House, Gold and I-bonds, from Aug 2000. Nice.

The only problem with the I-bonds, is not properly titled, they have to go through probate.
PM's never have seen a probate court, I would imagine.
 
BUBBAHOTEPT said:
For those that have bought over the span of two centuries, that is not an abnormal point in time. I get your points, but the metals have a very useful place and supply a lucrative service as Hfcomms real life example.…
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Yeah, but the percentage of people who bought over a long period of time, is very small, and in the single digits in percentages. So, it has no basis in a normal conversation on the value of the investment. The number of people that this affects, is very small.

BUBBAHOTEPT said:
Then again, it’s always about when you cash out. I believe that’s the rub on anything…
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This is what made everyone so giddy in the end of last year and into January. They were all strutting their chests, because they bought 10 years ago, and the "value" of their stash went up, with the crazy ramp job. Once again, a small percentage of the population, like 10%. So, in the big picture, not measurable.

And, you only gain that "value" if you sell/exchange. Sitting in your safe, is meaningless..

Now, compare that to the tens of millions of people that "bought" the hype, maxed out their credit cards, thinking they were going to be the next Elon Musk, with the increase in Silver values... Guess what, it didn't happen.

Now, anyone who bought Silver in December or January, is underwater... Yeah, I know, the PM Bulls will now say, "just wait, it's going to the moon"..... LOL... sure...

I really don't understand why the Bulls complete ignore the REALISTIC history of Silver's value, It has flatline for the majority of the past decades, only having a few crazy spikes, and crashes over that time.

Is 2026 looking anything like 2012???

1784386380502.png
 
BUBBAHOTEPT said:
It’s funny but I looked up those few IBonds I bought around 2000, and I’m going to have to cash them come 2030
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Looking at the historic interest rates for I bonds from 2000 to now, they've really fluxuated.

What if you put that same money into a S&P 500 index fund in 2000. What would that be worth now?

Average I Bond Return Rate​

The average composite return for I Bonds from 2000 to 2026 is approximately 3.5% annualized.

Rate Variability​

The rates for I Bonds have varied significantly during this period, influenced by inflation and fixed-rate cycles.
empower.com tipswatch.com

Average S&P 500 Return Rate​

Overall Average Return​

The average annual return for the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2026 is approximately 8.2%. This figure includes both price changes and reinvested dividends, providing a comprehensive view of the index's performance over this period.
slickcharts.com Macrotrends
 
Another interesting data point. Many of the PM Bulls stated that the reason Silver and Gold were rising in price, was because the Dollar was collapsing...

In reality, I think they got that switched up. Gold and Silver has been collapsing this year, while the Dollar continues to go up:

1784388210889.png
 
Hfcomms said:
In Jan of 2000 gold was $284 dollars an ounce and ten ounces of gold cost $2840 obviously. A median priced Nissan Frontier in Jan of 2000 went for $19000 or 66 ounces of gold at $284 an ounce.

In Jan 1st of 2026 gold was $4321 an ounce and my 2026 Nissan Frontier cost $43,000 or 9.9 ounces of gold. So what did I really gain? Do the simple math. The gold more than held its value over the rapidly depreciating currency. What would of cost me 66 ounces of gold 26 years ago now cost 10 ounces of gold today.

And a checking or savings account doesn't lose principal over time? Really? Taking an average APY earned between 2000 and 2026 according to the Grok as I'm too lazy to do the math;

Around 0.5% to 0.8% APY on average (national averages for simple/traditional savings accounts), though this varies significantly by year, bank type, and data source.

If I was to take that $2840 dollars in Jan of 2000 and instead of buying gold and just left it in the savings account with compounded interest according to the Grok:

Approximately $3,050–$3,300 (very rough estimate), representing total growth of roughly 7–16% over 26 years.

Nominally I would of started out with $2840 so you could say that since I have say $3300 in January I didn't lose any principal but what about factoring for inflation of the dollar between 2000 and 2026? Using the dollar inflation calculator;

If I bought something in January of 2000 for the $2840 today that same item would cost me $5507 for a cumulative 93.9% rate of inflation. So yes, I'd definitely say my principal isn't intact and the cancer of inflation has steadily ate it away and even with compounding interest in a checking or savings account hasn't even come close to maintaining my purchasing power.
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I will agree. Autos and other consumables have become amazingly cheap for me, also.
 
King Samson said:
Looking at the historic interest rates for I bonds from 2000 to now, they've really fluxuated.
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Yep, but the beauty of buying around 2000 was the fixed base rate was high and would stay for the duration of the bond—not to mention no tax hassle until you sell, and liquidity/stability/security. The inflation rate has fluctuated over the years and in recent years brought the bonds to double digits. Again, not an end all, just like one month T Bill and chill has been pretty darn useful and oh so very liquid these last 5 years.
As for the S&P, another useful tool, understanding that around 365 companies left the S&P from 2000 with 135 left from that time. Then there is always the disaster if you had to cash out in times like 2008.
Same with 1 Bitcoin buying in 2016 and a 20,000% return if you sold this last year.
Consequently, I can’t time the market but I can see the trends and cycles. Just like precious metals, many tools in the box.
OMT: While paying more attention to Bitcoin, I found it really fascinating as to how many tools were so closely related in their behavior to one another. Nothing in a vacum I reckon…. :kaid:
Like your DXY chart illustrates if you overlap other charts on it, there is definitely correlation….
 
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I bought silver at $20 and gold at $250. My problem is I had to sell my gold to pay for surgery for my lead dog.
 
coalcracker said:
Samson, why do you argue so energetically against metals? Were you Jim Cramer's roommate back in Harvard? I sometimes share my opinions here, but you, on the other hand, seem to have the devil's pitchfork poking you in the rear-end and driving you at breakneck speed. Seriously, what motivates you?
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@coalcracker

I'll move this over here, as to not clog up that other thread.

I don't argue against metals. I own a ton of them. I argue against some of the theories and narratives, on what can be done with them, and how some people think they're economically saved, because they have some shiny coins in their safe.

Then, some go as far and state the Dollar will collapse, the dollar is worth 3 cents, inflation makes PMs go up, and anyone who deals with fiat dollars are fools, etc. That's just fantasy and pipedream novels, that they use to justify their PM purchases. But none hold up to economic facts, data and prior history.

Yeah, I'm more vocal then most, on disputing those theories, as I don't want other lurkers reading here, to make those same mistakes with their limited funds. Go ask anyone who jumped in during December and January, and are now underwater, what they were thinking, when they jumped all in.

There's a moral to the story that approximately 10% of the population invests in metals, where over 60% of the population invests in the stock market. Do you know why that is?
 
King Samson said:
@coalcracker

I'll move this over here, as to not clog up that other thread.

I don't argue against metals. I own a ton of them. I argue against some of the theories and narratives, on what can be done with them, and how some people think they're economically saved, because they have some shiny coins in their safe.

Then, some go as far and state the Dollar will collapse, the dollar is worth 3 cents, inflation makes PMs go up, and anyone who deals with fiat dollars are fools, etc. That's just fantasy and pipedream novels, that they use to justify their PM purchases. But none hold up to economic facts, data and prior history.

Yeah, I'm more vocal then most, on disputing those theories, as I don't want other lurkers reading here, to make those same mistakes with their limited funds. Go ask anyone who jumped in during December and January, and are now underwater, what they were thinking, when they jumped all in.

There's a moral to the story that approximately 10% of the population invests in metals, where over 60% of the population invests in the stock market. Do you know why that is?
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Thank you.
 
Why can't metals gain any traction, still bouncing at YTD bottoms, 6 months later from their highs:

1785275189002.png

Gold fell on Tuesday, weighed down by a firm dollar that remained near a one-month high, while investors awaited this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on the policy outlook.

Among other metals, spot Silver dropped ‌2.2% to $57.10 per ounce, platinum dipped 1.4% to $1,599.26, and palladium fell 2.4% to $1,260.13.

Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,032.42 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for ⁠August delivery slid 1.1% to $4,032.40.

The U.S. dollar steadied near a one-month high on Tuesday, making greenback-priced bullion expensive for buyers overseas.

Bullion has fallen about 24% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, pressured by expectations that war-driven inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer.

www.cnbc.com

Gold falls as dollar hovers near one-month peak ahead of Fed meeting decision

Gold fell on Tuesday, weighed down by a firm dollar that remained near a one-month high.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
This piece is aggravating...

www.kitco.com

Bank of America sees value in gold miners even after cutting 2026 gold price forecast

(Kitco News) - While gold prices could continue to struggle through the second half of the year as markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, one bank still sees plenty of opportunity in precious metals, with particularly attractive value in the mining sector.Commodity analysts...
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

I've been harassed and taken advantage of by BoA, since they was my first bank account in 1984-85.

I've not done any business with them since 2003 and I had to have my lawyer threaten them for funds they held of mine and refused to pay me out in full, on a estate where I was the beneficiary by contract, no questions.

My dad said that if you think you might go to hell or just dont believe in any God, deposit your money in BofA.

Because there gotta be one of them in hell.
 
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diesel85 said:
I know some don't like me saying this, but I am going to just because.

I'm hoping to see the value of the US dollar be very strong, and to see gold and silver plummet.

Yep, I hold some gold and silver, but I find the US dollar to be more important.
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Looks like you're getting your wish, on both sides.

1785518150821.png
 
Today I realized exactly what my best-performing "investment" has been - ever.
Scoff all you want, but Series EE Savings Bonds purchased in the late eighties to early nineties have just shown me what excellent return is.
I had eight bonds I was coerced into buying when I worked at Newport News Shipbuilding and Drydock Company. Each of those eight bonds had a face value of $50 - that means I paid $25 a piece for them. After 30 years they stopped paying interest on them (6% to 7%), and I finally got around to cashing those puppies in. So for my basis of $200, I just deposited $1,615.64 into one of my savings accounts. Luckily (as I understand it) my taxable burden will be on the final payout minus the face value - so $1,2515.64.
I don't care how you slice it, those returns are pretty decent!
 
Starting to think I should not hold off to exchange fiat for silver, when silver gets under $50 a ounce.

It really seems to be holding strong around $60 a ounce.

Waiting till October. If silver is still exchanging for +- $60 fiat by then I'll dip a toe into the market and increase the stack anyway. Just not as much as I planned. Under 10 ounces. Or less.

If silver gets below $50 a ounce and if ASE premium included is close to $50 each, im backing up my Tonka truck.

:D
 
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West said:
It really seems to be holding strong around $60 a ounce.
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Yep, gained a few back today, but still down -50% from the high in January.

I haven't seen anything written why it hasn't grown any legs back, and tried to test that high again. The whole trade has got really quiet.

Why?
 
King Samson said:
Yep, gained a few back today, but still down -50% from the high in January.

I haven't seen anything written why it hasn't grown any legs back, and tried to test that high again. The whole trade has got really quiet.

Why?
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Maybe 2 reasons.

First silver is a precious metal that can be used as a storage of value but it also has multiple industrial uses as well. When used in industry is generally unrecoverable. Industrial use is down, and China is a major producer but now has export controls. Many solar panels are switching to alternative metals due to the price so aggregate use is down.

Depending on how extensive the yen swap lines grow you may see more dollar devaluation and upward price on PMs.
 
I have been in metals for 25+ years.
It is feast or famine. For the metals and the miners. Though, right now, the Silver and Gold miners, at the current prices, are well in the money. I will say that one thing that is different, is that NY bought up the silver at 9am, big. You can see it in the charts. Has continued from there.
 
Southside said:
I have been in metals for 25+ years.
It is feast or famine.
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That's great for you. But what about the multi millions of people, that believed the hype, and jumped into the pool in December and January, how do you think they are feeling now, 8 months later, while trying to pay off the credit card bill they used, to buy the silver?
 
Samuel Adams said:
Noble of you to believe it Southside duty to save the world.
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I try to tell people how stupid they are for buying power ball tickets. And eating junk food. But I can't because....

Did you see its up over 700 million and the cream cheese stuffed deep fried jalapeño peppers are on sale at the gas station where you can get your chanch at 700 million!

:D
 
King Samson said:
Yep, gained a few back today, but still down -50% from the high in January.

I haven't seen anything written why it hasn't grown any legs back, and tried to test that high again. The whole trade has got really quiet.

Why?
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Because TPTB don't want people to know how awesome silver is.
 
Hfcomms said:
I disagree with most metals companies that metals are an investment. There is a caveat to that though, the numismatics can be considered investments but even these are cyclical with the premiums depending on rarity. I bought a bunch of $10 liberty MS-62 and MS-63 for a few percent over melt value and there have been times where they fetch 30% over melt or more so those could be considered investment quality as well as the extremely rare ones. But bullion, they aren’t investments.

As far as long term and what that means? I’ve been stacking since 1990 and I’ve bought silver @ $4 and @ $65 and I value every ounce the same. They are my savings account that doesn’t lose it’s principal (over time) unlike cash in a savings or checking account. The gold I sold to buy my truck was acquired at less than $500 an ounce and sold for close to 4K. Many would say that is an 8 bagger but in reality the gold preserved it’s value while the currency hasn’t.
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Agreed!

The metal is not the value in dollars but what comes after the dollar is dead or dying
 
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