CRISIS Scientist Who Predicted Ten Years Ago That 2020 Would be “Mayhem” Says Civil War Could Be Next

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
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Scientist Who Predicted Ten Years Ago That 2020 Would be “Mayhem” Says Civil War Could Be Next

“Things are not as bad as they can be.”

Published 1 min ago on 18 June, 2020
Paul Joseph Watson
Portland Press Herald/Getty Images
8 Comments

A scientist who accurately predicted back in 2010 that 2020 would be “mayhem” now says that a “civil war” in America could be coming next.

Professor Peter Turchin, whose expertise lies in cultural evolution and historical dynamics, said ten years ago in Nature that after the start of 2020, we would see the beginning of “a period of major social upheaval” marked by “mayhem” and “widespread civil unrest”.

“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” back in 2010, he told Time. “People did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies.”

Turchin had looked at data from both violent and peaceful anti-government protests stretching back 230 years before 2010, noting that periods of widespread unrest occur roughly every 50 years and that we were due another in 2020.

The professor said that there were “many signs” chaos would begin in 2020, and that a lot of it relates to the instability caused by “declining wages, wealth inequality and exploding national debt.”

“As a scientist, I feel vindicated. But on the other hand, I am an American and have to live through these hard times,” he said.

Turchin’s track record of accuracy doesn’t provide much comfort given what he is predicting comes next.

Due to the dreadful state of the economy as a result of coronavirus and regular violent disorder, the professor warns that the situation “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”

“Things are not as bad as they can be,” Turchin concluded.

Can’t wait.


 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Scientist Who Predicted Ten Years Ago That 2020 Would be “Mayhem” Says Civil War Could Be Next

“Things are not as bad as they can be.”

Published 1 min ago on 18 June, 2020
Paul Joseph Watson
Portland Press Herald/Getty Images
8 Comments

A scientist who accurately predicted back in 2010 that 2020 would be “mayhem” now says that a “civil war” in America could be coming next.

Professor Peter Turchin, whose expertise lies in cultural evolution and historical dynamics, said ten years ago in Nature that after the start of 2020, we would see the beginning of “a period of major social upheaval” marked by “mayhem” and “widespread civil unrest”.

“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” back in 2010, he told Time. “People did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies.”

Turchin had looked at data from both violent and peaceful anti-government protests stretching back 230 years before 2010, noting that periods of widespread unrest occur roughly every 50 years and that we were due another in 2020.

The professor said that there were “many signs” chaos would begin in 2020, and that a lot of it relates to the instability caused by “declining wages, wealth inequality and exploding national debt.”

“As a scientist, I feel vindicated. But on the other hand, I am an American and have to live through these hard times,” he said.

Turchin’s track record of accuracy doesn’t provide much comfort given what he is predicting comes next.

Due to the dreadful state of the economy as a result of coronavirus and regular violent disorder, the professor warns that the situation “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”

“Things are not as bad as they can be,” Turchin concluded.

Can’t wait.



Here's more from this fellow.

After spending the last 20 years studying crises in America and the structural defects that helped cause them, Turchin says many signs showed the U.S. was spiraling toward upheaval in this decade.
The nation, he says, has experienced stretches of turmoil about every 50 years between 1870, during heightened tensions of the Reconstruction Era, and 1970, in the aftermath of Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination when women and many minority groups were fighting for equality amid protests against the ongoing Vietnam War.
Turchin looked at data analyzing peaceful and violent anti-government demonstrations that involved at least 100 people between 1780 and 2010. Using a computer model, he also factored in economic patterns—including declining wages, wealth inequality, exploding national debt and other social pressures that affect national stability—from the same time period. The model showed social and economic turmoil in the U.S. would come to a boiling point in the years around 2020, Turchin wrote in his 2010 paper.
Worse conditions could still be coming.
Turchin says societal crises, which are triggered when pent-up pressures seek an outlet, can typically last for five to 15 years. If the underlying roots of unrest are not properly addressed, turbulent events are easily set off again. In South Africa, for example, which is one of the world’s most unequal countries, according to the World Bank, intense protests and anger over race and wealth inequality still rankle the country, 26 years after apartheid ended. Residents burn tires in almost-daily protests, according to the Associated Press.
Since Floyd’s death on May 25, conversations about systemic racism andpolice brutality against Black men and women have spread across the nation and the globe. Local officials in some cities, including New York and Minneapolis, have announced plans to either defund or dismantle their police departments, while federal lawmakers are pushing to reform police in other ways, including banning chokeholds and creating a national registry of misconduct.
There is growing momentum in finding solutions, Turchin says, but reversing trends has generally been a slow process. President Donald Trump’s administration has denied that systemic racism exists in the U.S. law enforcement system, which could delay change longer.
On top of that, Turchin says the COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the wellbeing of large swaths of the American population—a leading driver of national instability—and could make the public less likely to trust government institutions. As millions of Americans remain jobless, Turchin says there will be other triggers after this. He worries tensions “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”
“Unfortunately,” he says, “things are not as bad as they can be.”
 

Dozdoats

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helen

Panic Sex Lady
Scientist Who Predicted Ten Years Ago That 2020 Would be “Mayhem” Says Civil War Could Be Next

“Things are not as bad as they can be.”

Published 1 min ago on 18 June, 2020
Paul Joseph Watson
Portland Press Herald/Getty Images
8 Comments

A scientist who accurately predicted back in 2010 that 2020 would be “mayhem” now says that a “civil war” in America could be coming next.

Professor Peter Turchin, whose expertise lies in cultural evolution and historical dynamics, said ten years ago in Nature that after the start of 2020, we would see the beginning of “a period of major social upheaval” marked by “mayhem” and “widespread civil unrest”.

“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” back in 2010, he told Time. “People did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies.”

Turchin had looked at data from both violent and peaceful anti-government protests stretching back 230 years before 2010, noting that periods of widespread unrest occur roughly every 50 years and that we were due another in 2020.

The professor said that there were “many signs” chaos would begin in 2020, and that a lot of it relates to the instability caused by “declining wages, wealth inequality and exploding national debt.”

“As a scientist, I feel vindicated. But on the other hand, I am an American and have to live through these hard times,” he said.

Turchin’s track record of accuracy doesn’t provide much comfort given what he is predicting comes next.

Due to the dreadful state of the economy as a result of coronavirus and regular violent disorder, the professor warns that the situation “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”

“Things are not as bad as they can be,” Turchin concluded.

Can’t wait.



Predictive analytics. Math. Not woo.
 

Raggedyman

Res ipsa loquitur
You'd have to be blind to not see it coming

indeed you would and yet as recently as 3 months ago there were people here on this board who maintained a position of . . . never - not in our life time - not here

I'm not intending to harp on that point - simply praying that all recognize this period of relative "normalcy" is likely the last opportunity to fill in any holes that may exist in your preps. the length of this period of relative sanity - compared to what lies ahead is as UNKNOWN as it is UNKNOWABLE.

buy what you NEED while there is an economy to buy it IN
we need to be building larders as deep and as wide as possible

I have always told my kids to LIVE EVERY DAY expecting that TOMORROW will be better than today was - but to PLAN and PREPARE for it NOT TO BE
 
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Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
What I'm telling those I trust (who will listen): we are in a window period right now:

- get surgeries done, dental work done, get glasses, etc.
- plant, grow, harvest, and store food (if you can't have a garden, plan to build/restock the pantry)
- buy whatever Chinese imports you can find/order that are needed (shoes, clothes, spare parts -- ELECTRONICS . . . kids in school? Telecommuting? Make sure you have backups!)
- don't forget the pets! Food, vet care, etc
- get any paperwork you need (passport expiring?)
- get ammo, guns, cc permits (etc)
- don't forget physical fitness / conditioning
- maintain vehicles, home, etc.

Try to think ahead to the late fall/winter. If we have another lock down, what is needed? Try to acquire it this summer if funds permit, but also have some SAVINGS.

I hope that I'm wrong about a second CV wave . . . we might even be in a civil war. I don't know . . . but I strongly feel we are in a "window period" right now, so use the time wisely.
 

Normallguy

"just a human bein'"
Rides rides rides...
How many "E" tickets am I gonna havta buy to catch the MAJOR rides?
I am on a budget and didn't plan on 1960's-70's Disney prices.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
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I thought I recognized that name.

Put it in the search gizmo and he's been referenced here since 2009.
 
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