ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jward

passin' thru
GeoInsider
@InsiderGeo
·
2h
Reports now indicate that up to 140 drones are currently in Ukrainian airspace. Tu-95MS bombers have taken off from Olenya Airfield, and Tu-22M3s from Engels. Meanwhile, three missile carriers in the Black Sea are armed with up to 24 Kalibr missiles.

It’s shaping up to be a very long night for Ukraine. We’re closely following all developments and will continue to provide updates.
 

jward

passin' thru
O reeeely??

Current Report
@Currentreport1
8h

BREAKING:

Russia has accused China of stealing military technology, recruiting Russian officials, and showing interest in Russia’s Far East.

Russia’s FSB has warned that China poses a serious threat to national security, labeling it an emerging enemy of Russia.
 

Old Greek

Veteran Member
O reeeely??

Current Report
@Currentreport1
8h

BREAKING:

Russia has accused China of stealing military technology, recruiting Russian officials, and showing interest in Russia’s Far East.

Russia’s FSB has warned that China poses a serious threat to national security, labeling it an emerging enemy of Russia.
No surprise about Cynna!
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Putin unleashes a summer offensive to break Ukraine​

His killing machine has been told to deliver a glorious victory at any cost​

An upwards view shows a church dome damaged by Russian military strikes in the frontline town of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine.
Photograph: Reuters
Jun 8th 2025 Kyiv
The Economist

AFTER WEEKS of nebulous ceasefire talks at the urging of a semi-engaged President Donald Trump, the war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying again in savage style and with escalating stakes. In the last two weeks there have been record-breaking Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and spectacular Ukrainian drone raids on Russia’s strategic bomber force, deep inside its borders. But all this is merely a prelude to the main event: a large-scale summer offensive by Russia that aims to break Ukrainian morale and deliver president Vladimir Putin a symbolic victory at almost any cost.

Many Ukrainian cities and soldiers are bracing for a final reckoning. Kostiantynivka has been on the edge of war since 2014. Now the writing is on the wall for the eastern town, which Russia has identified as the logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, and a gateway to open up the last strongholds there. Up to 25 guided bombs rain down every day. The remaining 8,500 civilians mostly leave the city each day by a 3pm curfew. Russian troops are tightening the noose from the south, east, and west. Dmitry Kirdayapkin, the police chief, morbidly calls the coming assault an “arc of Russian love”. He knows the Russian drill well by now: death, demolish, repeat. He saw it in 2014 as an officer in Horlivka, a town that saw fighting in an initially deniable war; and then during the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Today his officers and paramedics in Kostiantynivka work from basements and race along drone-stalked streets in caged vans that resemble massive barbecues.

20250614_EPM918.png

Map: The Economist

Ukrainian intelligence believe that Kostiantynivka and neighbouring Pokrovsk will be the centre of Russia’s summer campaign. There are concerns about the north-eastern province of Sumy too. Russia has massed 50,000 troops there, and is advancing slowly towards the provincial capital in a mirror of Ukraine’s own cross-border operation last year. For the first time since the war began, Russia is gaining nearly as much ground there in the north as it is in the main Donbas theatre, largely because it is making light work of fortifications unsuited to drone warfare. Border towns and villages have been evacuated, with locals reporting swarms of cheap drones that often detonate mid-air. Military sources say they still expect that once Russia establishes a so-called buffer zone it will shift focus to the Donbas and Zaporizhia fronts to the south—continuing the attritional warfare that has turned the region into a pockmarked wasteland.

The front lines have not shifted in Russia’s favour in any strategically significant way for three years. But Ukrainian sources claim that captured Russian officers tell them the summer campaign is being presented as “one last push”, to break Ukraine’s morale. Mykhailo Kmetiuk, the commander of Typhoon, an elite unmanned-systems unit operating near Pokrovsk, says the Russians continue to plan such operations only because commanders do not spare the lives of their soldiers. Eight out of any ten of the new recruits are eventually killed on the battlefield, he claims, yet there is no realistic end to the waves of Russians. Russia is consistently recruiting 10,000-15,000 more men per month than Ukraine, and doing it by offering big sign-on bonuses rather than relying on the conscription that is proving so divisive in Ukraine.

Some Ukrainians are sceptical that Russia can ever break through. The nature of the fighting—in small dismounted groups to mitigate the risk from drones—means that Russian progress is never quick, and losses are high. The invader has still not been able to demonstrate that it can break through defences and then exploit the gap by making rapid or significant advances. “Russia’s last big offensive ended in May 2022 [after the fall of Mariupol],” says Roman Kostenko, a special forces officer, an MP and the secretary of parliament’s defence and security committee. “They haven’t been able to take Kostiantynivka in over three years. How can you even begin talking about their strategy?”

But other soldiers are more cautious. A key part of Ukraine’s resilience has been its early edge in drone warfare, but that advantage is now eroding. Eduard, an officer in the 93rd brigade, says Russia has even pulled ahead in what he calls the “front-line drone marathon”. A new Russian unit called Rubikon is causing particular trouble around the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk sections, chopping up Ukrainian supply lines up to 40km to the rear. First seen near Kursk in 2024, Rubikon reports directly to the Ministry of Defence and is seen as well-resourced and tightly organised.

Rubikon strikes deep by using large “mothership” drones that deploy smaller ones controlled by fibre-optic cables, along with wireless drones that operate on hard-to-intercept frequencies. Growing co-operation with China has also become obvious to those fighting it on the frontlines, especially when it comes to reconnaissance drones, the eyes of the battlefield. China is declining to sell them to Ukraine while, says President Volodymyr Zelensky, it is facilitating drone production in Russia. It is not all one-way traffic. Ukraine recently hit a tank hidden in a hangar 42km away. But the newest generation of jamming-resistant drones often fly so high they can only be neutralised by short-range surface-to-air systems—like American-made Hawks and Soviet-era Buks—and here Ukraine has acute shortages.

Three years and four months into the full-scale war Ukraine still believes it will avoid a collapse of its front lines. Yet between collapse and the front remaining stable, plenty of sub-optimal outcomes are possible. The probable result of Russia’s summer offensive remains uncomfortable: no clear victory or defeat, but with Mr Putin able to point to some shift in the map that may be enough to encourage him to keep fighting. Once the fighting stabilises after the summer offensive is over, a window of diplomacy might become possible again. But it might not. “The problem with the Russians is that they are able to absorb losses,” says Mr. Kirdyapkin. “Our losses may be a lot less, but we feel them much more.”■

 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
John Mearsheimer: The TROUBLE Trump is in - You Can't Underestimate it
Strategic Overstretch: The U.S. is overcommitted in Ukraine and the Middle East, which weakens its deterrent power in East Asia against China. Key military resources have been diverted, hurting U.S. readiness for a potential conflict over Taiwan.

The outlook is grim unless significant changes are made—though the political and structural barriers make such changes unlikely.
One Solution:

Get ALL US forces / support OUT of Ukraine.
Now.
And let THEM slug it out.

That little arrogant phallus-pianist who comes to the US DEMANDING certain treatment and then DEMANDS payment from Russia for agreeing to negotiate with them---HE is the one "over-extended" and he needs to find out by just how much.
 

Abert

Veteran Member

Russia Launched Record Nearly 500 Drones In Overnight Attack On Ukraine​


In overnight attacks Russia launched a record 479 drones across Ukraine, with airstrikes reported in 10 locations, damaging buildings but surprisingly there were no immediate reports of deaths or mass casualties, with one person reported injured.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Looks like the gloves are finally coming off!

Russia Prepping for a New Terrorism War​


Since my last visit on March 8, 2025, I am noticing some dramatic, visible changes in Russia’s security posture. During my previous three visits to Moscow — i.e., Decembrer 2023, February 2024 and March 2025 — I rarely saw any kind of visible police or military security presence. That has changed now. I counted four two-man teams of uniformed, armed soldiers in front of my hotel. They are armed and conducting routine patrols. This is clearly a response to Ukraine’s recent terrorist strikes on Russian territory.

Vladimir Putin has elevated Russia’s special military operation to a counter terrorism operation, which means that top Ukrainian government officials will now be targeted. That means that Vladimir Zelensky and Kyrylo Oleksiiovych Budanov, who has served as the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine since August 2020, are both now on a Russian target list.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
One of the key targets that got a LOT of attention
During today’s attacks, Dubno Airbase in Rivne Oblast has been hit with 5 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, 3 Kh-101 cruise missiles and over a dozen Geran-2
drones.


https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1931994765073023341
The increased Russian strikes on the Lvov and Rovno regions suggest a possible shift in target selection strategy. While earlier attacks on western areas were occasional and usually focused on large logistical sites (warehouses, communication hubs, power infrastructure), what’s happening now looks like a deliberate campaign against targets that were likely avoided before — possibly due to resource conservation, political restraint, or lack of immediate operational relevance.

In this context, the strike on the airfield in Dubno (Rovno region) stands out. Just a couple of years ago, this site was being considered as a potential location for stationing Western aircraft, including F-16s — thanks to its safe distance from the front line and proximity to logistics routes through Poland.

If the strike did indeed hit Dubno airfield, it points to two things. First, there’s a systematic clearing of infrastructure that could potentially be used for deploying Western aviation.

Second, the Russian side appears to have confirmed intel showing that these sites are already hosting — or are being prepped to host — equipment and personnel.

Also worth noting: “Geran” drones and missile systems are now being used in this region with a density previously seen mostly in strikes on eastern and central Ukraine.

If this trend continues, the zone from Lvov to Lutsk and farther west will start losing its logistical and operational safety, which will severely complicate the integration and coordination of Western-supplied hardware.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
More info - sounds like this has already happened - older version - no longer effective

Israeli MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems are already in Ukraine — Israeli Ambassador Michael Brodsky

Background (May 2025)

Patriot air-defense system based in Israel to be refurbished, sent to Ukraine – NYT​

US made deal with Israel under Biden, report says, as Russia fires missiles, drones at Ukrainian cities several times a week; Israeli Air Force decommissioned Patriots last year

The Patriot is an older model, two US officials told the Times.
NOTE PAC-2

It is expected to reach Ukraine this summer, according to the report.

In January, it was reported that the US took 90 Patriot interceptors out of storage in Israel and sent them to Poland to pass on to Ukraine.

The Israeli Air Force said last year it was decommissioning the Patriot systems, to be replaced with more advanced air defenses.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Zelensky feels victory, US missiles betrayal. Newsom dares Trump, arrest me. Bulgaria EUROZONE​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIn1Mr9NUrk

Run time - 33:06
Jun 9, 2025

0:00 - Discussion on Zelensky interview with Martha Radish of ABC News

10:15 - Zelensky statement on Ukraine's ability to force Russia to end the war

15:27 - Update on Ukraine's air defense and Russian strikes

18:02 - France's plan to build drone manufacturing facilities in Ukraine

19:51 - Update on the LA riots and Gavin Newsom response

23:38 - Slovakia's stance on EU sanctions against Russia

25:50 - Bulgaria's adoption of the Euro currency

28:34 - Clown world segment featuring Russia's opposition and Musk asylum story
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Russia Hints Dnieper Bridges Attack SMO Upgrade; Xi Quashes Graham Sanctions; Kiev Plans Dirty War​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIirHYCYTc0

Run time - 1:15:33
Jun 9, 2025

0:00 - Introduction and overview of Georgia

3:48 - Political and economic situation in Georgia

7:01 - Public sentiment and international relations in Georgia

10:00 - Georgia's geopolitical stance and relations with Russia

15:23 - Economic growth and development in Georgia

19:02 - Introduction to Ukraine conflict and international relations

22:02 - Ukraine's compliance with Istanbul agreements

27:01 - Overview of recent military actions in Ukraine

33:50 - Russian ambassador's statements on military operations

38:01 - US political dynamics and Ukraine's international relations

43:00 - Trump and Xi Jinping's phone call and implications

54:02 - Analysis of US-China relations and sanctions

1:05:07 - Ukraine's military strategies and international implications

1:11:02 - Conclusion and potential consequences for Ukraine
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

jward

passin' thru
Faytuks News
@Faytuks
2h

A big drone attack is underway against Kyiv. Missiles have also been used. Multiple fires reported in the city.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
37m

Overnight, Russia launched what is likely to be the largest drone attack in history against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv as well as the coastal city of Odesa, with hundreds of one-way attack drones targeting primarily homes, apartment buildings, and other civil infrastructure throughout both cities, to include hospitals. Casualties are expected to be significant, as search-and-rescue operations and firefighting continues into the morning across Kyiv and Odesa.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1932267585074278624
 

Abert

Veteran Member
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
37m

Overnight, Russia launched what is likely to be the largest drone attack in history against the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv as well as the coastal city of Odesa, with hundreds of one-way attack drones targeting primarily homes, apartment buildings, and other civil infrastructure throughout both cities, to include hospitals. Casualties are expected to be significant, as search-and-rescue operations and firefighting continues into the morning across Kyiv and Odesa.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1932267585074278624
Likely going to be the new normal - Russia is currently upping production of drones with the goal of producing 1000 a day in the near term. These are not being produced in basements out of hobby kits - but industrial production.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I am noticing that for whatever reason, these Russian attacks and some of those from Ukraine seem to occur at a time that Americans are likely to think is the middle of the night, but is just before or at sunrise. This is happening so often that I suspect there must be a reason, but as I'm not a military person, I have no idea what that might be. Some of the board members might have a better clue.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
I am noticing that for whatever reason, these Russian attacks and some of those from Ukraine seem to occur at a time that Americans are likely to think is the middle of the night, but is just before or at sunrise. This is happening so often that I suspect there must be a reason, but as I'm not a military person, I have no idea what that might be. Some of the board members might have a better clue.
Interesting point.

The same thing was mentioned in "Alas! Babylon"--that the traditional hour Russians liked to attack was just before or at dawn. I don't know if that's just a Russian / eastern European thing, or is practical from some military standpoint.

Maybe those of our members with military experience/knowledge could chime in on this.
 

jward

passin' thru
KyivPost
@KyivPost
55m

Hungarian intelligence tried to gather information on the locations of air defense systems and military units in Ukraine — Zelensky

Clash Report
@clashreport
1h

Zelensky:

Hungarian intelligence attempted to gather information on the location of Ukraine's air defence systems and military units within Ukrainian territory.

Who is Hungary collecting this information for? I asked NATO officials if they requested this intelligence from the Hungarians, and they replied, 'We did not.'
 

Repairman-Jack

Veteran Member
Interesting point.

The same thing was mentioned in "Alas! Babylon"--that the traditional hour Russians liked to attack was just before or at dawn. I don't know if that's just a Russian / eastern European thing, or is practical from some military standpoint.

Maybe those of our members with military experience/knowledge could chime in on this.
<shrug>

' "Don't sleep beyond dawn. Dawn's when the French and Indians attack" is a common saying in the context of the French and Indian War, specifically associated with the Rogers' Rangers.'

Maybe something to do with human alertness of defenders?

The tech doesn't really care, it will be harder to detect drones visually at night.
 
Top