WAR Israel and Iran at war - (THIS IS NOT THE 12 DAY WAR THREAD)

jward

passin' thru
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13

Ibrahim al-Amin, the editor of the Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper, in this morning's article: "It seems that Germany has decided to move completely to the anti-resistance axis so that Hezbollah has decided to stop any contact with the Germans, on the political or security side, and not to cooperate with them in regards to the conflict with Israel.”

He further claimed that Hezbollah is working to request that Germany be kept away from participating in the international forces and treated as a hostile entity
 

jward

passin' thru
QuillFire
@QuillFirePoetry
·

Israel's use of American weaponry is a hugely valuable marketing campaign for American arms manufacturers. It is an invaluable testing and validation system as well.


Patrick Fox
@RealCynicalFox

The Israelis have a fascinating history of using first line US aircraft in combat before the US does.

F-15: Six IAF F-15's achieved the airframe's first kills when they destroyed 5 Syrian MiG-21's over southern Lebanon in June 1979.

F-16: First air-to-air kill was a Syrian Mi-8 shot down by the IAF over the Beqaa Valley in April 1981. First hostile fighter kill was achieved in July of 1981 against a Syrian MiG-21.

F-35: IAF F-35I's were first used to conduct airstrikes in 2018 in Syria and Lebanon.

11:57 AM · Oct 27, 2024
111.2K
Views
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
It has been very interesting to watch the slow-walk of the International BDA (Battle Damage Assessments) from the last attacks.
We have seen few intensive reports as to damages inflicted. The preliminary assessments suggested that Iran had lost all of their defensive capabilities such that the whole country lay undefended. Further assessments walked that back by about 50%. with Iran assessing things at a much lower percentage.
As Iran has had 2+ full days of daylight to re-assess their systems, the discussion of retaliation has become VERY HEATED!

As minimal photographic evidence has made its way out of Iran, it has slowly become obvious that Iran HAS been hurt, and badly. It is likely that discussions are RAGING in Tehran and the standard litany of verbal responses will be used to cover preparations for a LARGE response.

I would expect to see a response that ATTEMPTS to replicate a "Shock and Awe" effect. I would also NOT rule out TACNUKEs should Iran have these in their inventory, even if they are screwing the pieces together as you read this.
 

Murt

Has No Life - Lives on TB
IF iran responds I would think the level of their response would be an indication of the level of damage israel inflicted on them
 

mecoastie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
As we are all just speculating. I think Israel was held on a very short leash by the US. They hit targets that impact them directly as well as potentially paved the way for future attacks. That depends on how quickly the Russians can replace those assets Iran lost.

I think another attack by Iran will be a use or lose attack where they throw a ton of missiles, drones etc at Israel. This will likely be their last chance as Israel will hammer them in the next go round.

The election is also going to be watched. Particularly if Trump wins Israel will know they will get the support to replenish expended munitions and Iran will know they are in trouble. Conversely Kamala will most likely cut most of the aid to Israel.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
If you ask google, Libya still has S-300 systems.
If you ask google, Syria still has S-300 systems (and the are right next door to Israel).
If you ask google, Ukraine still has S-300 systems (and they have been at war against Russia for 2.5 years).

If you ask Ukraine, they have had near 100% success using S-300s to shoot down the almost 10,000 Russian missiles that have been launched over 2.5 years.

And now you stand up with a great shout and blaring trumpets, thumping on your chest that
in one night Israel has destroyed all of Iran's S-300s.

Santa Claus Lives!!!
 

colonel holman

Administrator
_______________
As we are all just speculating. I think Israel was held on a very short leash by the US. They hit targets that impact them directly as well as potentially paved the way for future attacks. That depends on how quickly the Russians can replace those assets Iran lost.

I think another attack by Iran will be a use or lose attack where they throw a ton of missiles, drones etc at Israel. This will likely be their last chance as Israel will hammer them in the next go round.

The election is also going to be watched. Particularly if Trump wins Israel will know they will get the support to replenish expended munitions and Iran will know they are in trouble. Conversely Kamala will most likely cut most of the aid to Israel.
Fascinating! Each side awaits US POTUS/Congressional elections to define their existential actions going forward. Rather clearly illustrates to voters exactly what their choices really are, and how their vote may define the world going forward.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
Iran is trapped by their nuclear ambitions.

They would prefer to simply retaliate directly against Israel but until they have both a testable weapon and another weapon they must always consider the what happens next.

Since they have yet to immediate retaliate with massive missile attack, I suspect they are deciding to absorb blows to keep the nuclear program active. This also may indicate they are close enough to warrant the apparent weakness they are showing in a very dangerous part of the world.

So far they are sacrificing pawns right and left but as their options get fewer and fewer their actions could become less predictable and more desperate.

It’s worth noting that Israel creates clearly defined redlines and with the current leadership has defended each one.

A retaliation by Iran would put oil gas and/or nuclear program at risk. One is the money maker to fund the state the other is where much of the previous funds have been used.
 

onetimer

Has No Life - Lives on TB
That oil tank pic looks too grainy and intact to prove anything IMO. I'd expect a lot more damage from a direct hit.
 

onetimer

Has No Life - Lives on TB
"soon" again lol

OSINTdefender

@sentdefender
·
3m

Channel 13 reports that the Israeli Security Cabient has made the decision to launch another Retaliatory Action against Iran soon, due to their Role in a recent Drone Attack by Hezbollah, which Targeted the Home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.................

Posted for fair use......



Satellite photos show Israel hit Iran former nuclear weapons test building, missile facilities, researchers say​

By Jonathan Landay
October 28, 2024 7:47 AM PDT Updated 10 hours ago

  • Summary
  • One struck building used in Iran's defunct nuclear weapons program, researcher says
  • Other buildings mixed fuel for Iranian missiles, researchers say
  • Israel hit sites at Parchin and Khojir
WASHINGTON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - (This Oct. 26 story has been refiled to clarify the description of CNA as a non-profit research and analysis organization in paragraph 2)

An American researcher said an Israeli airstrike on Saturday hit a building that was part of Iran's defunct nuclear weapons development program, and he and another researcher said facilities used to mix solid fuel for missiles also were struck.

The assessments based on commercial satellite imagery were reached separately by David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization.

They told Reuters that Israel struck buildings in Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, according to Eveleth, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran.

Reuters reported in July that Khojir was undergoing massive expansion.

Eveleth said the Israeli strikes may have "significantly hampered Iran's ability to mass produce missiles."

The Israeli military said three waves of Israeli jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran early on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran's Oct. 1 barrage of more than 200 missiles against Israel.

Iran's military said the Israeli warplanes used "very light warheads" to strike border radar systems in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and around Tehran.

In posts on X, Albright said commercial satellite imagery showed that Israel hit a building in Parchin called Taleghan 2 that was used for testing activities during the Amad Plan, Iran's defunct nuclear weapons development program.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and U.S. intelligence say Iran shuttered the program in 2003. Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons.

Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security research group, was given access to the program's files for a book after they were stolen from Tehran by Israel's Mossad intelligence agency in 2018.

On X, he said the archives revealed that Iran kept important test equipment in Taleghan 2.

Iran may have removed key materials before the airstrike, he said, but "even if no equipment remained inside" the building would have provided "intrinsic value" for future nuclear weapons-related activities.

Albright told Reuters that commercial satellite imagery of Parchin showed Israel damaged three buildings about 350 yards (320 m) from Taleghan 2, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

He did not identify the commercial firm from which he obtained the images.

Eveleth said an image of Parchin from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse in the sprawling complex.

Planet Labs imagery also showed that an Israeli strike destroyed two buildings in the Khojir complex where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed, he said.

The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.

"Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers," Eveleth said. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them."

With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel's missile defenses.

"The strikes appear to be highly accurate," he said.

Axios reported that Israel destroyed hit 12 "planetary mixers" used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, quoting three unnamed Israeli sources as saying this severely damages Iran's ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel.

Iran has the Middle East's largest missile arsenal and supplied missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and to Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, according to U.S. officials.

Tehran and Moscow deny that Russia has received Iranian missiles.

Planet Labs imagery reviewed earlier this year by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey showed major expansions at Khojir and the Modarres military complex near Tehran that the pair assessed were for boosting missile production, Reuters reported.

Three senior Iranian officials confirmed that conclusion.

The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by Alistair Bell, Don Durfee and William Mallard
 

Mongo

Veteran Member
Wait, what, how?

FirstSquawk
·
9m

CHANNEL 12 ISRAEL: ISRAEL PROPOSES NOT EXPANDING ITS GROUND OPERATION IN LEBANON IN EXCHANGE FOR AN AMERICAN BLOCKADE THAT PREVENTS HEZBOLLAH FROM BUILDING ITS CAPABILITIES
Wont happen. Blockade is an act of war.
Israel basically saying, "instead of bitching at us, why don't YOU commit to stop this crap?"
 

vector7

Dot Collector
NEW: All h*ll breaks loose after Ryan Girdusky appears to accuse Mehdi Hasan of being a terrorist after Hasan accused Girdusky of being a Nazi.

Pretty insane that this is where we are at right now.

Hasan: If you don't wanna be called Nazis, stop…

Girdusky: Well, I hope your beeper doesn't go off.

Panel: *Descends into chaos*
RT 2min
View: https://twitter.com/TrueJester86/status/1851096076104749470


It’s pretty hilarious that they’re allowed to call people Nazis but they start crying when someone calls them a terrorist.
View: https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1851096473129390585
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Dun dun dun.............

View attachment 508425
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Luddite

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Extrapolating from the last Persian barrage: predicted new Battle Damage Assessment: zero Jewish casualties and forty-eleven trillion dollars in interceptors deployed.

Future war colleges will spend weeks teaching these tactics.

This whole post is sarcasm. Has my doubt been conveyed?

Said less cryptically: If any member of the highest leadership in Iran lives, this was a sham.

If Israel doesn't finish the job so easily obtainable their leadership needs a big turnover and this was a sham.

Reasonable questions for our readers: Is this latest iteration of modern war the pinnacle of theater?

One last question while I'm on a roll conveying my ignorance: Where's all the talk and hand-wringing about "sleeper cells" gone?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Extrapolating from the last Persian barrage: predicted new Battle Damage Assessment: zero Jewish casualties and forty-eleven trillion dollars in interceptors deployed.

Future war colleges will spend weeks teaching these tactics.

This whole post is sarcasm. Has my doubt been conveyed?

Said less cryptically: If any member of the highest leadership in Iran lives, this was a sham.

If Israel doesn't finish the job so easily obtainable their leadership needs a big turnover and this was a sham.

Reasonable questions for our readers: Is this latest iteration of modern war the pinnacle of theater?

One last question while I'm on a roll conveying my ignorance: Where's all the talk and hand-wringing about "sleeper cells" gone?

When you take into account the amount of meddling that The Swamp in indulging in at the same time Israel is fighting Iramian proxies and Iran it starts to make some sense in a twisted way.

Whereas the Iranian long range missile barrages were a propaganda exercise (they can't back their proxies at this point in the field in anything resembling an effective and timely manner) while the Israeli strike, though limited if the reports are correct have cleared the field for much lighter opposition if not eliminating it entirely for follow up strikes.

As with everything in that region only time will tell.
 
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