WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
2h

There are Unconfirmed reports that Turkish Armored Units are being transported from the Turkish Mainland by Ferry to the Demilitarized Greek-Claimed Island of Imbros, this comes less than 24 hours since President Erdogan said a Turkish Attack on Greece could not be ruled out.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1567234784375541763?s=20&t=Dk-NS-606f3BCZLsuj52YA

Merde....
 

jward

passin' thru
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian
44m

PM Lapid hits back at US attempts to pressure Israel to reexamine IDF rules of engagement: "I will not allow an IDF soldier that was protecting himself from terrorist fire to be prosecuted just to receive applause from abroad. No one will dictate our rules of engagement to us."
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1567550520100798464?s=20&t=NQH6A2MqturOC9GYcgBBvg



EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
31m

Update: Prime Minister of Israel: We will prevent Iran and its militias from approaching our sea areas.
 

jward

passin' thru

France, Greece reject Turkey's 'neo-Ottoman bravado'​

by Kosta Papadopoulos

Greek Foreign Affairs Minister Nikos Dendias said Greece "rejects [Turkey's] neo-Ottoman bravado," in joint statements with his visiting French counterpart Catherine Colonna in Athens on Tuesday.


The Greek minister added that statements coming out of Turkey are "unacceptable, unheard-of and condemnable," and he pointed out that "we are neither afraid nor intimidated."


Asked about Tuesday's statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said that Turkey will “ descent suddenly one night” on Greek islands, spoken during an official visit to Bosnia on the day, Dendias said that the Turkish side has been making increasingly outrageous and unacceptable statements in recent days, and he reiterated that Greece always acts on the basis of International Law and the Law of the Sea.


Dendias went on to say that "anyone who dreams of attacks and conquests should think it over more than once," as "we are more than self-sufficient in our ability to defend our homeland, our territorial independence and our integrity."


Moreover, he added that "we are absolutely certain of our alliances and the attitude of our partners. The EU has already demonstrated, in the case of Ukraine, that threats and incursions beyond International Law create an unprecedented unity and a straightforward response."


Just yesterday, Dendias continued, it was said that "Greece is not Turkey's equal and cannot be its interlocutor. Turkey threatens Greece with war if it applies its rights as derived from International Law and the International Law of the Sea. It violates our national sovereignty on a daily basis. This year alone there have been more than 6,100 violations of Greece's national airspace, 157 overflights over Greek territory and 1,000 violations of our territorial waters."


Finally, Dendias thanked his French counterpart for briefing him on her talks in Ankara that preceded her Athens visit, and he added that he fully agrees with the stance expressed by her to her Turkish counterpart, which points to the avoidance of tension-raising and of provocative rhetoric.


Speaking on the issue, French Foreign Affairs Minister Colonna underlined that France "has always stood and will continue standing on Greece's side," and that her country is closely following all developments in this matter.


Responding to a journalist's question about how France will stand on Greece's side in the context of the defense agreement signed between Greece and France in September 2021, and if Turkey's threats materialize and there is an escalation, she said that "article 21 of this agreement describes precisely such an eventuality, that assistance is provided if either country is faced with a confirmed armed attack in its territory." She did, however, point out that "we are doing everything we can to avoid being in this situation."
 

jward

passin' thru

Greece rejects Turkey's 'unprovoked' threats - Insider Paper​




Greece has notified the EU, NATO and UN of Turkey’s “unprovoked” threats against its sovereignty, according to letters published Wednesday.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given controversial speeches recently to mark the 100th anniversary of Turkey’s victory in a three-year war against Greece that completed the creation of the post-Ottoman state.
He has repeatedly accused NATO ally Greece of “occupying” Aegean islands whose status was settled in post-war treaties and has warned that Turkey’s armed forces could “come overnight” and “do what is necessary”.
The letters, dated September 5 but published by EU member Greece Wednesday, said Erdogan’s statements were “openly threatening” and “unacceptable”.
“These public statements by the Turkish President speak for themselves: they are unprovoked, unacceptable and an insult against Greece and the Greek people,” the letters signed by Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias say.
Erdogan has increased his verbal attacks on Greece ahead of next year’s election that is expected to be his most difficult after 20 years in power.

“If you go too far, the price will be heavy,” Erdogan said Saturday, referencing the 1922 fall of the western city of Izmir that was followed by its burning and a massacre of the ethnic Greek population.
In response to Turkey’s claim that Greek islands have been illegally militarised, Athens counters that Turkey has a large fleet and army stationed on the coast facing the islands, and invaded Cyprus in 1974.
Dendias said Tuesday that statements by Turkish officials were growing “increasingly outrageous and unacceptable” and warned Greece’s military “was adequate to defend our homeland”.

The two uneasy neighbours have for years feuded over maritime borders and energy exploration rights in disputed parts of the Aegean, which separates the two countries, and in the eastern Mediterranean.
Athens also accuses Ankara of flying over Greek islands, while Turkey has been angered by recent Greek defence agreements with France and the United States.
Greece rejects Turkey's 'unprovoked' threats - Insider Paper
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB

The Sirius Report
@thesiriusreport


So the threat of another war in Europe is a possibility. Only it is Greece and Turkey. Would that invoke Article 5? Who does NATO seek to defend given they are both NATO nations?


3:28 PM · Sep 8, 2022·Twitter for Android

Ma’am, it depends upon whose ox is being gored. As we’ve seen, perception of the populace is easily massaged, as the specters of enemies past, loom in the darkness. As Mark Twain was said to have opined, “History may not repeat itself, but it sure knows the tune.”

That the next Great War is on the near horizon, may well be a “given.” Only a fool doesn’t prepare accordingly. The “Great Powers” have long institutional, racial, and genetic memories. Old grudges seldom, if ever, disappear. Old plans get dusted-off, updated, and gaps in material, if possible, get filled in. The organs of propaganda get tuned-up/spooled-up, and truth becomes an inconvenient series of minutia.

Then, wars are fought on the previous wars preparations…

OA
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Power struggle continues in Libya​

Recent deadly clashes have alarmed regional and international powers, as civilians fear displacement and a shortage of medicine and food.

Khalid al-Karimi
September 8, 2022

Libya's capital, Tripoli, lost its calm during the last days of August as local political rivals opted for force to settle differences. Fierce fighting claimed 32 lives, and over a hundred were left injured. This development is a fresh diplomatic setback and ushers in a new chapter of power struggle in a country ravaged by a decadelong instability.

In February 2021, Libya's competing forces agreed to form a unity government, which many saw as a step toward peace. Abdul Hamid Dbeibah was selected as prime minister and was supposed to assume power up to December 2021. He would hand over power to an elected authority. However, the unstable security and political environment hindered the conduct of the electoral process. Such a failure planted the seeds of the latest fighting.

The magnitude of the dispute worsened early this year. In February, the Libyan parliament appointed Fathi Bashagha as the new prime minister after withdrawing confidence from Dbeibah. The latter remains the UN-recognized prime minister, and he insists that he will only hand over power after elections.

On Aug. 26-27, forces affiliated with Bashagha attempted to take control of Tripoli and oust the Dbeibah-led government, shattering hope for a near peaceful solution.

Chaos had marred Libya since 2011 when the NATO-backed uprising toppled the four-decade regime of Col. Moammar Gadhafi. Ten years after his fall and murder, the destructive political and military rivalry has not ceased.

Acting as the country's legitimate prime minister, Dbeibah said forces seeking to oust him are implementing foreign plans in Libya. "Those who attacked Tripoli were a vehicle for international agendas that do not want stability for the country," he said in a televised speech Aug. 28.

On the other hand, Bashagha contends that his opponent's term ended based on the outcomes of the Geneva talks. He said in a press statement Aug. 28, "We affirm that Dbeihah and his armed gangs are responsible for the bloodshed, and are responsible for what will happen because of their clinging to power and their failure to accept the will of the Libyans and the principle of peaceful transfer of power."

The Libyan competing sides' rhetoric signifies their deep political schism, which has sparked international concern about the consequences of this violence outburst. Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary A. DiCarlo did not consider the recent clashes in Tripoli as a minor matter.

Speaking at the United Nations Security Council meeting on Libya Aug. 30, she said, "I am deeply concerned that the ongoing stalemate and continued delays in implementing the electoral process pose a growing threat to security in and around Tripoli and potentially to all Libyans …"

Similarly, the US ambassador to the United Nations for Special Political Affairs, Jeffrey DeLaurentis, stated Aug. 30 that the renewed clashes in Tripoli are the outcome of Libya's political leaders' "abject failure" to prioritize the common good above political interests.

He noted during the UN meeting, "The United States is deeply concerned by the continued belligerence of rival leaders, the continued maneuvering by militias for political and military advantage, and the continued flow of weapons and other military hardware into the country in contravention of the arms embargo."

France has urged the parties to the conflict to quicken the finalization of the constitutional framework to carry out the elections. French UN Permanent Representative at the Security Council Sheraz Gasri said Aug. 30, "Paris has followed with concern return of tension to Libya and the violence that has erupted in Tripoli over the past two days, considering it an evidence of the unsustainable situation."

Political observers have also cautioned against the fallout of this renewed combat in Libya, deeming it a prologue to a deadlier confrontation.

Libyan journalist and researcher Mohammed Hameeda said in an analysis that the latest military clashes in Tripoli are the first round of a wider and fiercer war in Libya. "The inevitable outcome of what happened is a bigger conflict," he said.

He said that all the UN proposals did not intend to provide a comprehensive solution to the crisis. Instead, the purpose was to offer a temporary remedy, reduce tensions and postpone the conflict.

Hameeda added, "The ideal solution is uniting the security institutions and dismantling the militias; holding elections and implementing the peaceful transfer of power can follow."

The return of fighting has not only alarmed regional and international powers. It has also sparked worry among civilians who could be vulnerable to displacement and shortage of medicine and food.

A UN report revealed that Libya's decadelong armed conflict displaced hundreds of thousands of Libyans. According to the UN, the political instability, insecurity and lack of the rule of law prevented internally displaced people from returning to their places of origin.

With the recent burst of violence in Tripoli, civilians fear a tougher chapter of suffering should hostilities persist. Ahmed, a 32-year-old resident in Tripoli, told Al-Monitor that the indiscriminate shelling is a huge concern for civilians in flashpoint areas.

"Remembering popular comedian Mustafa Baraka who was killed during the clashes on Saturday [Aug. 27] saddens and terrifies me. His death means no civilian is 100% safe once battles flare up in populated areas," he said.

Ahmed added, "We [Libyans] have tasted the scourge of war for years, and we detest to slide again into mayhem. Political disagreements in this country will provoke more battles and further civilian misery. We hope this will not happen."



Read more: Power struggle continues in Libya
 

jward

passin' thru
I wish to happy dance, I fear it just means something even more odious will be dreamnt up & signed.



Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1


#BREAKING: Senior Israeli official tells reportes: The West does no longer believe there will be an agreement with Iran. "We (Israel) don't know when they will walk out of the talks, but they no longer believe there will be an agreement.
The Israeli official added that Israel presented recent-new intelligence information to the US and Europeans that shows Iranians are tricking you

11:00 AM · Sep 12, 2022·Twitter for Android
 

jward

passin' thru

US denies Israeli claim that Iran nuke talks failed or that Biden ‘toughened’ stance​


By Jacob Magid



The US State Department rejected on Monday remarks made by a senior Israeli official who claimed that the Biden administration has effectively given up on the Iranian nuclear talks, insisting that Washington’s efforts to reach an agreement with Tehran were ongoing.
“We have been and are continuing to seek a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] because President Biden is convinced that this is the best way to deliver on his commitment not to allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon,” said a statement made attributable to an anonymous State Department spokesperson.
The US statement came hours after a senior Israeli official, briefing reporters during Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s visit to Germany, relayed that “The Americans and most Europeans say there’s not going to be a [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action].”

The senior Israeli official said that those who reached this conclusion have offered different “excuses”: Some claim that the deal fell apart because of Iran’s response to the final proposal drafted by the EU; others say it’s because EU Foreign Affairs head Josep Borrell and his chief of staff Enrique Mora got ahead of themselves in the talks; and others argue that the Biden administration “hardened” its positions vis-à-vis Iran as a result of Israeli lobbying against the JCPOA.
Regardless of how the sides ended up where they are, the senior Israeli official said that the time has come to launch “strategic dialogue” with the US and European powers aimed at achieving a “longer and stronger” Iran nuclear agreement.

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This was a goal set out by Biden upon entering office, but one his aides argue won’t be possible until after the US revives the original JCPOA, which former president Donald Trump abandoned in 2018 in favor of crushing sanctions against Iran.
The senior Israeli official then indicated that Jerusalem’s “strategic dialogue” with the Biden administration about next steps has already begun, pointing to Lapid’s call with the US president last month along with the recent visits to Washington by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, National Security Council chairman Eyal Hulata, and Mossad chief David Barnea.
The official claimed that Israel has managed to sideline Robert Malley, who helped craft the original agreement signed in 2015 and who has become a frequent target of Israeli criticism.


In this file photo from May 25, 2022, Robert Malley, the Biden’s administration special envoy for Iran, waits to testify about the Iran nuclear deal during a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP)

“This is out of the hands of Malley’s camp by now. The decisive talks we’re having with the US are no longer in Malley’s hands,” said the senior Israeli official.
While the State Department does not frequently respond to comments made by foreign officials criticizing its policies, it chose to do so in this instance, taking the opportunity to refute several claims made by the anonymous Israeli briefer.
“We have a very close dialogue with Israel and other allies and partners about Iran, including the JCPOA. Special Envoy Malley is an integral part of those talks,” the US State Department spokesperson continued in the statement.
“It is not correct that our position has ‘toughened.’ The President has always been very clear about what we need in order to reach an understanding and return to full implementation.”
“There is only one reason that we have not yet reached an understanding: Tehran has not yet accepted the reasonable basis presented by the EU as coordinator of JCPOA talks,” the spokesperson added.


Enrique Mora, a leading European Union diplomat, second right, attends a meeting with Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani, third left, in Tehran, Iran, March 27, 2022. (Iranian Foreign Ministry via AP)

While there had been initial optimism about prospects for reviving the nuclear deal, it has dissipated in recent weeks with the world powers claiming that Iran has made unreasonable demands at the last minute.

A major sticking point had been Tehran’s insistence that the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency drop a probe into unaccounted-for traces of enriched uranium at three sites in Iran, which the agency and the West have rebuffed out of hand.
Israel has long opposed a revival of the 2015 accord, which has been moribund since the Trump withdrawal and the rapid enrichment of uranium by Iran that followed.
Biden has recognized that the original deal fails to address Iran’s ballistic missile program along with its malign activities abroad. However, he maintains that the JCPOA at least keeps Tehran’s nuclear program “in a box” and that other issues are only compounded when the program remains unrestrained.


In this photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian Presidency, President Ebrahim Raisi, second right, receives an explanation while visiting an exhibition of Iran’s nuclear achievements in Tehran, Iran, on Saturday, April 9, 2022. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)

Lapid has said that Israel is not opposed to any deal, but that the specific one being negotiated would still allow Iran to advance toward a nuclear bomb in the future. Israel also insists Iran would use revenue from sanctions relief to bolster allied groups capable of attacking Israelis, notably Lebanese Shiite terror group Hezbollah, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two key Palestinian terror organizations.
The senior Israeli official briefing reporters Monday after Lapid’s meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Jerusalem had played up European jitters over the fact that Russia, which is a party to the JCPOA, will use Tehran as a way to bypass Western sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine.
“We, of course, encouraged this,” the official said.
Lazar Berman contributed to this report


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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

jward

passin' thru
The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks

Iraq: Reports of airstrikes near the Syria border in Al Anbar this morning. Reports that Iraqi security forces clashed with ISIS cells near the border killing several. Not sure if they called in Iraqi airforce strikes or if coalition. USAF RC-135W has been in the region.

Iraq: Further airstrikes reported near the Syria border, this time further north in Nineveh Governorate. Looks like Iraqi F16s from Balad targeted ISIS smugglers moving weapons into a building.

Iraq: USAF F15Es were up on CAPs too though, now en-route back to Al Dhafra with their KC 135 AAR. King Air ISR and E11 A BACN also up.
 

jward

passin' thru
TurkishFacts4u
@TurkishFacts4U
5h

BREAKING: Qatar ratifies the bilateral agreement with Turkiye allowing it to station fighter jets in Istanbul. It waited until it received delivery of Eurofighters prior to ratification of the Agreement signed quite sometime ago so as to prevent its aircraft from being seized.
 

jward

passin' thru

'The threat from Iran is growing to levels not seen before – and it will intensify'​




This is a wake-up call. There is no other way to describe it. It is not about the IDF wanting more budgets or changes. They will, of course, need that as well, but that's not the main part. When we do wake up, it might be too late. It will be just like with the 1973 Yom Kippur War: whatever we do not invest in deterrence now we will have to invest many times over later.

We should really listen. The speaker knows a thing or two about it. This is his task, which has become a life mission. As a fighter pilot, squad leader, and squadron commander, he knows the operational aspects well. In his current position, he learned the rest: strategy, intel, planning, politics, economics, and above all, passion. The same passion that keeps him up at night.
It's all about Iran. Yes, Iran again. But not the Iran we knew. Meaning, that it's not just about its nuclear program and the usual warnings, but much more. More than what's been made known until now, more than was presented, more than the public and decision-makers in Israel and the world understand. The IDF has finally got it. Late in the game, but finally it understands, as does the Mossad and the security echelon.
Now it's only time for the politicians, who are preoccupied with the upcoming election, to catch up. Unless they wake up soon, we might all wake up to a very different reality soon.

"A regional superpower is emerging next to us"​

Col. T. is the head of the IDF General Staff's Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate, which was established two years ago with the understanding that Iran requires more focus and attention than any other arena.
The reason his name is not mentioned fully in this interview is because he is still an active fighter pilot, who often participates in operations. It was his squadron that intercepted the long-range drone Iran launched into Israel last year, a matter that was kept secret until recently.

The directorate he heads was established to shape a plan against the Iranian threat, which Col. T. predicts is a challenge that Israel will face "in the coming decades, and it will only intensify."
"The Iran [we knew] in 2000 or 2010 was completely different from the Iran of 2020. This requires us to act differently. First of all, to establish an entity that will organize the outlooks and build approaches, on the basis of which it will be possible to plan operational plans and make the necessary preparations and adjustments," he said in his first exclusive interview. "It's a process that will only intensify, because the challenge we see is so great going forward, that it requires us to prepare long-term, with budgets and infrastructure that will match the size of the challenge that awaits us."
Iran has been a concern for Israel for decades, but the nuclear agreement that was signed between the Islamist Republic and world powers in 2015 – officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – allowed to IDF to use its resources for other matters, mainly Ground Forces, with the understanding that the Iran issue was postponed for several years.
However, the US withdrawal from the accord in 2018 as well as Iran's nuclear progress, terror activities, and efforts to strengthen its proxies in the region required the military to return to the issue.

Q: How would you describe Iran the way it is today?
"A regional superpower is emerging next to us, which constitutes the main threat to the State of Israel and challenges the Israeli security approach many years ahead. This will force us to prepare accordingly, invest resources, and pay attention. Unless we take this seriously, we may wake up to developments that we were not prepared for in time."
According to Col. T, this is not purely a military, but also a national challenge. The IDF is leading this fight, but it cannot do this alone, and a shift is required in the national understanding.

"Iran challenges us on several levels," Col. T. continued. "The first, in their quest for nuclear power. The second, in the proxies they are trying to position around us, whether it is Hezbollah in Lebanon, whether it is the desire to establish a base in Syria, or whether it is the support for the Shiite militias in Iraq, Yemen or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip.

"The third thing is that Iran is the largest and most dangerous supplier of weapons, capabilities, means and technology to all our enemies. And when you combine all these components into one picture of the challenge that Iran poses to us, it is a challenge that obliges us to prepare for it with the utmost seriousness, certainly when accompanied by the fact that Iran denies our existence and actively works to make sure we are not here in 10, 20 or 30 years.
"It is working to achieve this with ideology, money, budgets, trying to hurt us no matter where we are, and when it comes to a regional power gaining strength, and it also has many means and reserves and will have even more advanced capabilities in the not too distant future – this is a major challenge to our security."

Q: Hasn't this been the case for many years?
"The vectors were there, but the threat of this capacity was not. Iran has made a dramatic leap forward in its military capability. In 2000, it had no possibility of hitting us from Iran. In 2010, it had several hundred inaccurate missiles. If you look at its arsenal today, at the number of precise missiles it has, on how it arms our enemies – this is a different Iran. So the nuclear issue is, of course, the main threat, but along with it there is a threat developing here on a scale that we've never known before, which is only going to increase in the coming years and requires us to be prepared and deal with it differently."

Q: What exactly do you mean?
For example, "If today Iran has hundreds of missiles and drones that can reach us from Iran, in 2025 it will have thousands. All of them of the precise kind."

Q: And what does that mean for Israel?
"Israel has incredible layers of defense, but our preparation against Iran should also be an offensive preparation so that if we come to a confrontation we can defend ourselves, but also deal such a painful blow to Iran in return, that they will not think of trying to provoke us again."

Col T. believes that Iran is not currently interested in a broad confrontation with Israel, but is preparing itself for such a possibility in the future. The more Iran's military prowess grows, the more likely it is to act or join in case of a war with Hezbollah in the north.
"Iran is not alone, it is trying to create a regional system. And members of this system will want to protect each other. Therefore, when we look ahead, we need to prepare not only for one arena but to deal with the entire Iranian system.
"Iran is not just Iran itself, Iran is the regional system it is trying to create. And this system will want to protect and protect each other. Therefore, when we look ahead, we need to prepare not only for one arena but to deal with the entire Iranian system," he said.

"It's not just about the pilot in the cockpit"​

Col. T. stays away from the media and does not meet with journalists. His interview with Israel Hayom is the first he's ever given due to what he said was the emergency and importance of the matter.
He is 43 years old and married with four children. For many years he lived on an air force base where he served, but now the family lives in a kibbutz in the south. He has a bachelor's degree in accounting and finance as well as governance, democracy, and strategy and a master's degree in national security. In his previous role, he was the second commander of 140 Squadron and led efforts to integrate the F-35 aircraft into operational activities in various arenas.
In the early 2000s, he was supposed to be one of the leaders of the attack on the Iranian nuclear sites, that is until the nuclear agreement was signed and the plan was shelved. He has spent hundreds of hours preparing and knows the arena in great detail. When asked about that time, Col. T. smiles. At the end of the day, combat flying is his greatest love.

Q: What would you say is relevant to 2022 from that time when Israel was most ready to attack Iran?
"First of all, that it is incredibly important, and doing it means dealing with the greatest potential threat to the State of Israel. Second, that there is no one else to do it, that our destiny is in our hands and that we should be prepared for it. And third, to be proud that we have the ability, means, intelligence, weapons, and fighters – all the components that ultimately lead to the ability in the end."

Q: Did you think at the time that we would strike Iran?
"We were very, very, very seriously involved. I didn't know if it was going to happen, and it's not the point either. Our job is to be prepared for what they ask of us. And that's what we did. We trained as hard and as best as we knew how to, so that when they asked – the ability would be there ".

Q: Was it in a way disappointing when you weren't sent on the mission after all that preparation?
"Absolutely not. It provides a sense of security that you are only called upon on a mission when needed. You trust the decision makers not to do something that is not necessary, and when they do go ahead, you know that it is important enough for the security of the country."

Q: It sounds very complicated.
"Very. Developing this ability, it's not just about the pilot in the cockpit. It's the intelligence and the operation and the policy and the coordination with the partners, and a thousand and one different factors, political and military, that have to play their part in order for this to happen."
Col. T. believes that Israel should be ready to attack Iran at any moment lest it blazes to a nuclear bomb.
"We need a comprehensive military capability to do this, and also to strike Iran in case it decides to respond. Tehran needs to know that if this happens, Iran will come out of it ibattered and bruised and realize that the nuclear bomb is the last thing that pays for it to do because of the heavy price that will be exacted."

Q: You've used the words "regional power" before. Can you explain what that means?
"They are investing a lot in building their power, in a variety of fields. We see them starting to intervene not only in what is happening here in the region but also in other parts of the world. Look at their involvement in the war in Ukraine, in sales of military equipment, in Africa, and in South America. This is a country that perceives itself as a superpower and allows itself to do things today that it did not do in the past."
Israeli officials have warned time and again that this process will accelerate the moment the nuclear deal is renewed, as Iran will receive billions of dollars once sanctions are removed.
"That is absolutely what will happen," Col. T. asserts. "Iran will prioritize gaining more power, strengthening its proxies, and enforcing the Islamic Revolution on its citizens. Every dollar that Iran will get will go to the Revolutionary Guards, firstly, to maintain the existence of the regime, and secondly, to spread terror and chaos."

Q: What is their logic? What is their ultimate goal?
"They are first of all motivated by the conflict between the Shiites and the Sunnis. As far as we are concerned, they are doing and will do everything to bring about the future collapse of the State of Israel. They are working towards this themselves, and through their proxies in the region. Their vision is to create a Shiite crescent in the Middle East and end the existence of Israel as a Jewish entity."
Col. T. also points to what he calls Iran's "strategic determination," the same one that makes her persevere in its way, despite the heavy prices the country has paid along the way.
An example of this is its continued efforts to establish Shiite militias in Syria and to arm Hezbollah, despite thousands of operations and strikes carried out by the IDF, mainly in Syria. "They have strategic patience," Col. T. said. "Nevertheless, we have managed to thwart most of their plans."

Q: Could you give an example?
"Like its efforts to establish a foothold in Syria. The desire to be in charge in Syria, to make its way and operate unequaled systems of precision missiles and advanced air defense systems there. We have prevented all of these until now, but they are not giving up. What we've done so far shows that when we want something, and it is important enough to us, it is possible to achieve results. But this challenge is not over. It's just the beginning."

Q: Can we speak about the Iranian threats in more detail? For instance, how convinced are we that they are trying to build a nuclear bomb?
"They decided on a military program, that much has already been revealed in the nuclear archives, and they withdrew because of the military threat and international pressure. Therefore, the working assumption of Israel and the Western world should be that nothing has changed for them, and they are taking time until they are in the right strategic conditions to do it."

Q: What conditions are those?
"To be strong enough, and to think that when they do decide to go nuclear, no one will be able to stop them. Everything else along the way is just games. This is how I see it. It may be that right at this moment they are not pursuing military nuclear capabilities, but they are working to create a flexible space for themselves to do so in the future. They've made significant progress since they left the nuclear agreement."
As such, the IDF changed its plans with regard to Iran at the end of last year and put military readiness at the top of its priorities list, with all the implications – operative and budgetary – that it involves.
"That is the most basic of our duties," Col. T. said, but that is just the beginning. " "It is our duty to prepare for another 10, 20 years. To understand the magnitude of the challenge, and where it's headed. It is no longer the same. What is being built in front of us is something different from what we have known until now."

Q: How so?
"It is more complex, bigger, more dangerous. We talked about the nuclear bomb, the distribution of weapons, and the influence in the region. This is no longer a threat that only concerns the IDF. It is a political and national matter. We are not talking about a war in Gaza or Lebanon, but about a country that is 1,500 kilometers away and is conducting a regional strategic competition with us, in which we must always maintain superiority so that if we do get into a conflict with it, we will come out of it with an improved strategy."
 

jward

passin' thru
Q: And are you saying that as of today, Israel is not ready for such a confrontation?
"The military is the strongest it has ever been, but when I see where the Iranians are going, the clouds that are darkening around us on the horizon, we should really take it seriously and prepare for it ahead of time, and now is that ahead of time.
"This warrants additional investments, and the sooner, more correctly, and more accurately we make them, the more prepared we will be. The more strength we project in the coming years, the more we will deter, and the more weakness we project, the more it may lead to attempts to challenge us. Therefore, only by investing will we make sure that we won't find ourselves dragged into dangerous adventures."

Q: What more is needed? Money? Equipment? Intelligence?
"I won't go into each of the details specifically, and if someone drags us into a war, surprises await him beyond what can be imagined because Israel is really strong; but the ability to conduct a complete, extensive, long campaign, 1,500 kilometers from here, requires additional measures, which are different from those required to conduct a campaign nearby. And in order for this ability to exist in the future as well in the face of the dramatic threat built around us, we need to invest now."

Q: And if we don't prepare, will we be jolted into action like it was with the Yom Kippur war?
"You've described it well. Unless we prepare, we will undermine our superiority that exists today and Israel's security preparedness for a future war, and we will require much larger investments in the future than those that can be invested in advance in an intelligent way."

Rely only on ourselves​

Col. T. knows that there will be quite a few officials, especially in the Finance Ministry, who will claim that the IDF is exaggerating to get more funds. And although the military has been accused of crying wolf before, he asserts that this is a serious matter.
"We in the IDF are not detached from what is happening in the country. I have lived in the south for 15 years, we also stand in traffic jams with everyone, my children study in the education system. I think we need money for teachers and hospitals – the challenges are clear to me as well, and I know there are other urgent and important things as well. But the challenge I see we are about to face will require us first of all to be strong so that they don't mess with us, and if they accidentally do so – the results will be devastating for them. And unfortunately, when I look to the future, I definitely think it might happen and we should be ready for it."

T. is not too worried about the near future, however.
"Iran is not planning for the short term, not one year, not five, not even 10. It has patience, and it really doesn't care if it happens in 25 or 50 years. It is creating a spatial situation that will result in Israel collapsing. To create a Middle East without Israel, and it is investing in it every day. Look at the infrastructure in Iran. Everything is substandard because it is not prioritized. But there is money for the Revolutionary Guards and for strengthening and for the proxies and for terrorism. It has not stopped for a moment."

Q: What are they trying to do?
"Well, we've mentioned the nuclear bomb already. I think that as soon as the masks are removed, and Iran is strong enough, it will go nuclear. And they also want to arm all their proxies with unimaginable amounts of precision weaponry. That they will all have missiles and drones that can reach long distances. That Iran should have a Shiite succession, through Iraq and Syria, and Lebanon, which will undermine the Sunni majority.
"And they will want to challenge Israel through their proxies, without being harmed in Iran. Everyone will eventually pay a price and sacrifice for it – in Lebanon, in Gaza – and there, in Iran, they will remain unharmed. They want to exhaust us, and we cannot afford this to continue."

Q: Through air defense?
"That's another option. We talked about the fact that Iran is a growing superpower, and we already feel the challenge of the precision missiles around us, and this is also true of their defense systems. I think that in the coming years we will see them trying to negate our air superiority. To place such systems around us, on land and at sea."

Q: Are they good at it?
"They are very fast. They learn quickly, develop new versions, and improve. There is a learning competition here between us, and they present us with a difficult challenge in this field."

Q: An average Israeli would say that we are excelling. That we are targeting them in Iran, Turkey, Syria. But that is not how you seem to see it.
"When you look at how we deal with Iran, then the picture seems as you describe it now. But if we look at the ever-evolving picture, we will see that Iran's situation today is immeasurably better than it was in 2010, and much better than it was in 2000. And in the future it will only get better."
Col. T. also believes that the Iranian threat shouldn't just be a concern for Israel. We may be at the center of the issue, but the Islamist Republic's nuclear aspirations will affect the entire Middle East, but also Europe and the United States.
"This should worry the whole world, and we must try to develop partnerships, but we must act as if we are alone in this story because we don't know right now who will help us," he said.


Israel must also make sure to make it clear that just like it won't allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, it also won't stand for its efforts to arm proxies in the region, especially with precision weapons, he said. "This means that we will not allow ourselves to be surrounded by enemies and/or conventional weapons systems in unacceptable quantities, to the extent that we may have to act proactively as we are doing in Syria to stop the threat before it becomes greater. We must understand that the longer we postpone the confrontation, the more devastating the results will be."
"I'm still nervous before operations"
What Col. T. loves the most is combat flying. The F-35, he says, is an amazing aircraft that he has already flown on many operations in a variety of targets in the region.
"The privilege to fly and protect is in the blood of every pilot. Sit there at low altitude, you and this block of steel, and protect the country."

Q: But when the operation actually begins, what do you feel?
"When I was young, I was sure that only I – as a young pilot – get nervous before an operation, and that all the veterans are no longer nervous about this thing. Then you mature and you find that you are exactly as nervous as when you were young.
"But from the moment the engines go on, the nervousness passes – and you're just in the middle of the mission. Then you find yourself hundreds of kilometers from here, and you're focused on how to perform the mission best."

Q: Let's talk about the F-35s for a moment. Israel is a pioneer in the use of this aircraft in the world, and I don't think there are many fighters with your operational record.
"Without a doubt, this is the best plane in the world today. It also combines all the capabilities of fighter planes from previous generations, in carrying armaments, weapons and such, as well as stealth and survivability capabilities that allow it to reach places that other planes cannot."

Q: Let's go back to Iran. Are you concerned about being called an alarmist?
"It does worry me. That the insights that sit in my head, and with us in the security establishment, have not yet permeated the upper echelons. I'm not trying to panic here, that's not the point. My words are based on knowledge, on experience. It's something rational that's based on intelligence."

Q: And what do you think Iran will think once they read this interview?
"That Israel takes them very seriously. I hope they don't get confused and make strategic errors and make the mistake of thinking that Israel is a small and weak country. They simply don't understand what strength Israel has, both in the military and in human capital.

Q: Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's cobwebs.
"They simply don't understand us. They don't understand our motives, they don't understand where we came from and they don't understand that we don't have another country. And their quest to threaten Israel to the point of existential threats could push us into a corner, and they will regret it very much."

Q: And why do you think the world doesn't seem to share your concern?
"It's hard to convince someone who doesn't live in the region and is not exposed every day, and doesn't have the level of intelligence we have and simply doesn't understand. Israel is at the forefront, due to its geographical location, but I think we might be the first to be exposed, but the Iranians are looking at exporting the revolution to everyone.
"We tell them that we are not crying wolf. This is the reality, and all of us should be prepared properly. There are great opportunities here in the region – the Abraham Accords, the gas discoveries – that we need to leverage as much as possible with our allies, led by the US. Our role in the security system is to allow all of this to grow, because the more the economy prospers, the more we can do in the military campaign as well."

Q: And yet you said earlier that in the end, we should only count on ourselves.
"I don't know if it means that we are alone, but we do have to prepare as if we were. Of course, make every effort to create partnerships, but rely only on ourselves."
https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/09...ence-to-warn-of-unprecedented-iranian-threat/
 

jward

passin' thru

Turkey's Erdogan targets joining Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, media reports say​


September 17, 202210:07 AM CDTLast Updated 8 hours ago

2-3 minutes



Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends an extended-format meeting of heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states at a summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan September 16, 2022. Foreign Ministry of Uzbekistan/Handout via REUTERS.

ISTANBUL, Sept 17 (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan said he was targeting membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for NATO-member Turkey, broadcaster NTV and other media said on Saturday.
He was speaking to reporters after attending the SCO summit in Uzbekistan before heading to the United States.
"Our relations with these countries will be moved to a much different position with this step," Erdogan said.

"When asked if he meant membership of the SCO, he said, "Of course, that's the target".
Turkey is currently a dialogue partner of the SCO, whose members are China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Amid bilateral discussions at the summit, Erdogan had talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan said Turkey and Russia had reached a deal resolving a dispute over a nuclear power plant being built at Akkuyu in southern Turkey.

NTV reported Erdogan as saying that the Turkish contractor IC Ictas had been reinstated in the project, confirming comments by two sources to Reuters on Friday. read more
Last month, the Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, which is running the project, terminated its contract with IC Ictas over what it called "numerous violations".
"God willing we will be able to finish and inaugurate the first (Akkuyu) unit in 2023," Erdogan added.
 

jward

passin' thru

US-backed Kurdish forces detain 300 ISIS fighters in al-Hol camp raid operation​


Peter Aitken, Liz Friden

4-5 minutes



NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
Kurdish forces in Syria cleared out 300 ISIS fighters from the al-Hol refugee camp as part of an ongoing operation to eliminate the terrorist group’s presence and influence in the region.
"ISIS preys on the weak and disenfranchised and is trying to exploit the conditions in the camp to help regenerate its forces," said General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). "The situation in al-Hol is an international crisis that requires an international solution, and the only permanent solution is the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of camp residents."
MORE ROBUST US PRESENCE IN SYRIA COULD DETER IRAN, RUSSIA AND OTHER THREATS AND ENSURE STABILITY, EXPERTS SAY
The 24-day operation concluded with a clear-out, which also resulted in the rescue of six women whom ISIS fighters had chained and tortured – one of the women had remained in their custody since 2014 at the age of nine.


FILE - Children gather outside their tents, at al-Hol camp, which houses families of members of the Islamic State group, in Hasakeh province, Syria, May 1, 2021. U.S.-backed Syrian fighters said Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, they have concluded a 24-day sweep at operation at a sprawling camp in northeast Syria housing tens of thousands of women and children linked to the Islamic State group. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad, File)
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) carried out the operation with support from CENTCOM by sharing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS IRAN MANUFACTURING MISSILES IN SYRIA, REVEALS MAP OF FACILITIES
"During the 24-day clearing operation, the SDF arrested approximately 300 ISIS operatives, confiscated 25 kilograms of explosives and 25 hand grenades, and removed ISIS supply and logistics materials from the camp," CENTCOM said in a statement Sunday.


CENTCOM chief Gen. Erik Kurilla consults with officials running the al-Hol camp. (CENTCOM)
On September 8th, two SDF members were killed in engagements with ISIS fighters in the camp during the operation, the statement added.
ATTACK BY ISIS AFFILIATE LEAVES 30 DEAD IN MALI AS FALLOUT FROM EUROPEAN WITHDRAWAL CONTINUES
CENTCOM has focused on the 60,000-person camp with an operation that started Aug. 25. Kurilla visited the camp last week and warned that the conditions made it an ideal target for ISIS to "spread their vile ideology."


FILE - Women speak to guards at the gate that closes off the section for foreign families who lived in the Islamic State's so-called caliphate, at Al-Hol camp in Hasakeh province, Syria, March 31, 2019. U.S.-backed Syrian fighters said Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, they have concluded a 24-day sweep at operation at a sprawling camp in northeast Syria housing tens of thousands of women and children linked to the Islamic State group. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo, File)
"Most of the residents seek to escape ISIS, but ISIS sees the camp as a captive audience for its message and recruitment efforts," Kurilla said. "It is therefore urgent that we repatriate residents back to their countries of origin and rehabilitate them if needed."
https://www.foxnews.com/apps-products?pid=AppArticleLink
The al-Hol camp is Syria’s largest refugee camp, with children making up more than half the camp’s population, according to The Washington Post. Extremists at the camp had reportedly killed 44 of its residents and humanitarian workers.

Peter Aitken is a Fox News Digital reporter with a focus on national and global news. US-backed Kurdish forces detain 300 ISIS fighters in al-Hol camp raid operation
 

jward

passin' thru

Israel Says Troops Enter Syria To Pursue 'Suspects' - Insider Paper​




Israeli forces crossed into Syria on Monday and fired at four individuals who had “hurled objects along the border fence”, wounding one of them, the army said.
Israel, which regularly carries out air strikes inside Syria’s territory, rarely publicly acknowledges cross-border operations.
According to an Israeli army statement, “observation soldiers spotted four suspects” near Haspin in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, without providing any specific information on what they were throwing.
Israel Defense Forces “soldiers were dispatched to the scene, crossed the border and operated… by firing at one of the suspects’ legs,” the statement added.

The wounded suspect, whose condition wasn’t immediately clear, was “evacuated by helicopter to a hospital” in Israel, the army said without mentioning what happened to the other three.
Israel rarely comments on its military actions in Syria, save for operations in direct response to what the army considers immediate threats to Israel’s sovereignty.
But Israel has acknowledged carrying out hundreds of air strikes in Syria, targeting both government positions and Iran-backed forces, since civil war broke out in the country in 2011.
Israel seized 1,200 square kilometres (460 square miles) of the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it in a move never recognised by the international community.

posted for fair use
Israel Says Troops Enter Syria To Pursue 'Suspects' - Insider Paper
 

jward

passin' thru
Same ole Same ole... at some point someone's gonna have to grow a pr. All these words just lend credence to the thought that Israel benefits from the status quo n isn't sincere :: shrug ::









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Israeli Prime Minister Lapid in UN speech: We have capabilities, and we are not afraid to use them. We will do whatever it takes. Iran will not get a nuclear weapon.
 
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