WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

jward

jward

passin' thru
Not particularly reassured, either way.

TurkishFacts4u
@TurkishFacts4U


BREAKING: President #Erdogan: “Some countries from different geographical regions want to join #Turkey. We are now working on the foundations for this”

4:42 AM · Jul 17, 2021·Twitter Web App

++++++++++++

emre
@qaragede
48m

Replying to
@TurkishFacts4U
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416148743590715394
View: https://twitter.com/turkiyeekseni/status/1416148743590715394?s=19

"We are laying the foundations down to be beside (support) our brothers in different geographical locations who want to walk the same road as us" This doesn't imply anything to do with 'pax-ottomana'
you're twisting his words
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416347358338723843
View: https://twitter.com/qaragede/status/1416347358338723843?s=20
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Megaton "Bomb" - Angry "explosion" Erdogan: "Cyprus will not become a member of NATO" - Countdown? Intense concern in Ankara

War News 24/7
21/07/2021 - 22:01

Ankara is deeply concerned by the possibility of Turning Cyprus into a NATO stronghold through even its full membership in the Atlantic Alliance.

In fact, this possibility was discussed in detail during P.T. Erdogan's flight from Occupied back to Ankara.

R.T. Erdogan responded angrily that:

"Southern Cyprus cannot join NATO without Turkey's approval and such an issue is not raised."

Returning to Turkey yesterday, Mr Erdogan answered questions from journalists and as reported in Turkish and Turkish media one of the questions was whether he sees a possibility that the Turkish side, as the only owner of the island, will become a member of NATO.


"If anyone sees the NATO agreement, that's why Turkey needs a yes vote.

They're doing it for Greece. But that's not the case.'

What does Erdogan know and respond to the US?
Obviously Erdogan is aware of scenarios that have been going on for a long time on the occasion of the lifting of the US arms embargo on Cyprus and the US-Greece defence cooperation bill concerning An. mediterranean sea.

Analysts point out that Erdogan's angry response was aimed "exclusively at the US and the various NATO centres that process such scenarios." The following should be noted:

  • Erdogan knows that the new Turkish bases in the Occupied Territories directly threaten Israel. There will therefore be a reaction,
  • Erdogan knows that future developments and Turkish aspirations will further aggravate the situation and the issue of Turkey's expulsion from the Alliance will be on the table.
  • Cyprus will enter NATO. It's a one-way street. Otherwise the whole island will be lost in favour of the Russia-Turkey-China Eurasian axis.
  • But for Cyprus to enter, Turkey must first come out.
M. Rubin's recommendation to Biden

At this point let us remember the suggestion of Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the prestigious think-tank American Enterprise Institute.

"The Turkish drone base in Cyprus threatens not only the unoccupied parts of Cyprus, but also the entire region – from Crete to Israel and from Athens to Egypt.


Turkey's establishment of a drone base in Cyprus makes it imperative that the United States end the arms embargo on Cyprus for two reasons. The first is military: Secretary of State Mike Pobeo's partial lifting of the embargo in September 2020 was more symbolic than substantive. Cyprus received perhaps more than bulletproof vests because of the resistance of Turkey's career diplomats and lobby to the State Department itself. Erdogan's installation of Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned attack aircraft requires the transfer to Cyprus of technology to deal with these aircraft.

Patriot in Cyprus

This could include Patriot missile arrays, as the United States has previously provided to both Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Pentagon should also speed up the construction of jamming devices capable of blinding, if not shooting down, Turkish drones.

In fact, the Biden administration should go even further. Cyprus currently has only a small volunteer force of its own. To correct this, the United States should make the development of the capabilities of new Cypriot drones a strategic priority to the point where Cyprus has a qualitative military advantage over Turkey.


The second reason for lifting the embargo is diplomatic. Brussels or Washington should no longer expect Nicosia to make concessions to Ankara. This only rewards Turkish aggression. The only effective way to convince Erdogan to stop circumventing the status quo is to show him that every time he acts unilaterally, Turkey's strategic position will be downgraded.

On 1 June 2021, Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken spoke with Cypriot Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides. While Blinken's promise to deepen bilateral co-operation and "promote stability in the Eastern Mediterranean" is welcome, the words alone will not be addressed by Turkish drones. It is time for the United States to end the unilateral arms embargo.

Angry U.S. reaction to Varosia

Washington's strong condemnation and intention to react to Turkish plans for the Varosian enclave was heralded by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

The head of US diplomacy has assured that the US is currently in communication with partners who are thinking in a similar way to refer the matter to the UN Security Council, where they will call for its strong response.

Mr Blinken spoke of an unacceptable decision, expressing the unequivocal condemnation of the US and urging Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot leadership to radically change their policy on the Varossia issue.

As he noted characteristically, "the United States considers The Turkish Cypriot actions in Varosia, with the support of Turkey, as provocative, unacceptable and incompatible with their previous commitments to participate constructively in talks on the settlement (of the Cyprus issue). We urge the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey to revoke their decision announced today and all measures they have taken since October 2020."

Continuing, the U.S. State Department recalled that the Turkish moves are clearly incompatible with United Nations Security Council Resolutions 550 and 789, which explicitly require the United Nations to manage the Barosians. In this context, he stressed the importance of avoiding provocative unilateral actions that increase tensions on the island.

Ankara-assisted Turkish Cypriots ignored calls from international community

Mr Blinken says Ankara-backed Turkish Cypriots have systematically ignored the calls of the international community and the UN Security Council since October 2020, continuing to insist on their unilateral actions in Varosia.

The intervention of the head of US diplomacy concludes with the formulation of the US settled position on the Cyprus issue, which supports finding a solution on the basis of a bi-social and bi-community federation, in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions.

"We underline the importance of avoiding provocative unilateral actions that increase tensions on the island and hamper efforts to resume talks on resolving the Cyprus issue, in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions. We remain supporters of a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus issue for the reunification of the island on the basis of a bi-social, bi-community federation, for the benefit of all Cypriots and the wider region," he pointed out.

Megaton "bomb" - Angry "explosion" Erdogan: "Cyprus will not become a member of NATO" - Countdown? - WarNews247
warnews247 - Ειδήσεις Google
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Symon
@SymKur

So called Arab spring coming full circle
⭕


5:54 PM · Jul 25, 2021·Twitter for Android

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Guy Elster
@guyelster
5h

#BREAKING #Tunisia's president said he will freeze the Tunisian parliament, suspend the immunity of all deputies, and dismiss Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi after violent protests in several cities
____________________________________________
Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info
3h

Tunisia: - President has froze parliament and assumed executive power. - Military forces will confront those attacking Tunisia and its symbols. - The Parliament speaker has called the move a coup. - Tunisian Army reportedly deployed to the capital.

___________________________________________

AMIN
@kamedan_
3h

Replying to
@Global_Mil_Info
Tunisians are celebrating now
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1419433553549578243
View: https://twitter.com/kamedan_/status/1419433553549578243?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Turkish drones in northern Cyprus heighten regional unease
An air base hosting Turkish drones in the breakaway northern third of Cyprus is ratcheting up unease among neighboring countries

By MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS, SAMY MAGDY and JOSEF FEDERMAN Associated Press
25 August 2021, 05:08

NICOSIA, Cyprus -- An air base hosting Turkish drones in the breakaway northern third of ethnically divided Cyprus is ratcheting up unease among neighboring countries, which see the station as an added instrument of instability in the turbulent east Mediterranean region.

The Cypriot government views the drone deployment as a means for Turkey to pursue what it called an “expansionist agenda” - using military assets to extend its outreach and buttress its control of a region that potentially holds significant natural gas reserves.

Turkey has stationed heavy weapons and more than 35,000 troops in northern Cyprus since the island was split along ethnic lines in 1974, when Turkish forces invaded in response to a coup by supporters of union with Greece. But the deployment of the drones provides Turkey with a wider strike capability that has upped regional unease.

The leader of the breakaway Turkish Cypriots, Ersin Tatar, boasted on Turkish television earlier this month that the Bayraktar TB2 drones at the air base in Gecitkale - or Lefkoniko in Greek - could be scrambled much faster than from bases on mainland Turkey to “inspect the region” up to the coast of Egypt.

An Egyptian official described the deployment as another in a series of “Ankara’s provocative measures” that require a “firm reaction” from the international community - especially the United States and the European Union, of which Cyprus is a member.

“The base, along with other measures in Cyprus, Libya and the Mediterranean, would only further destabilize the region. It is alarming,” an Egyptian diplomat told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the issue.

“The latest (the base) solidifies the notion that Turkey will not be deterred through statements, but it needs actions from relevant countries,” he said.

Egypt’s ties with Turkey have frayed since the Egyptian military’s ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Ankara, in 2013.

The drones were sent to northern Cyprus in December 2019 in response to oil and gas prospecting by international energy companies licensed by the Cypriot government. Turkey claimed the prospecting off Cyprus' southern coast ignores its rights and those of Turkish Cypriots, to the area’s potential wealth of hydrocarbon deposits.

Turkey mounted a hydrocarbon search of its own in waters claimed by Cyprus and Greece. The EU condemned Turkey's actions as a breach of international law and of Cypriot and Greek sovereign rights.

At least two Bayraktar TV2 drones are currently stationed at Gecitkale. With an operating range of 200 kilometers (125 miles) and a flight ceiling of 6,100 meters (20,000 feet), the drones can can carry weapons and surveillance equipment capable of delivering real-time images to Turkish naval ships.

Turkey is said to be upgrading the Bayraktar’s systems to be satellite-guided to extend their range even farther. An intelligence report obtained by the AP indicates that the air base is receiving its own upgrade for a planned deployment of additional drones, surveillance aircraft, training planes and advanced fighter jets.

Israeli officials do not appear to consider the base to be a direct threat and declined to comment on the matter. In the past, they have objected to what they consider to be aggressive Turkish actions in the region.

Last month, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat said the Israeli government was “following with deep concern recent unilateral Turkish actions” in northern Cyprus and expressed its “solidarity and full support” for the Cypriot government.

Although Israel has refrained from official comment, Israeli Institute of Regional Strategic Studies analyst Gabriel Mitchell said the drone base is a “worrying development that will add to the existing tensions” with Turkey.

Israel has been trying to balance its support Greece and Cyprus with its efforts to leave “a door open for dialogue” with Ankara over the last decade, Mitchell said.

But Turkey's planned expansion of the drone base presents a problem because it will aggravate regional partners - particularly Greece and Cyprus - and “generate a new set of security considerations in the already overcrowded eastern Mediterranean,” the analyst said.

———

Magdy reported from Cairo and Federman reported from Jerusalem.

Turkish drones in northern Cyprus heighten regional unease - ABC News (go.com)
 
I

intothatgoodnight

. . .
northern watch said:
Turkish drones in northern Cyprus heighten regional unease
An air base hosting Turkish drones in the breakaway northern third of Cyprus is ratcheting up unease among neighboring countries

By MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS, SAMY MAGDY and JOSEF FEDERMAN Associated Press
25 August 2021, 05:08

NICOSIA, Cyprus -- An air base hosting Turkish drones in the breakaway northern third of ethnically divided Cyprus is ratcheting up unease among neighboring countries, which see the station as an added instrument of instability in the turbulent east Mediterranean region.

The Cypriot government views the drone deployment as a means for Turkey to pursue what it called an “expansionist agenda” - using military assets to extend its outreach and buttress its control of a region that potentially holds significant natural gas reserves.

Turkey has stationed heavy weapons and more than 35,000 troops in northern Cyprus since the island was split along ethnic lines in 1974, when Turkish forces invaded in response to a coup by supporters of union with Greece. But the deployment of the drones provides Turkey with a wider strike capability that has upped regional unease.

The leader of the breakaway Turkish Cypriots, Ersin Tatar, boasted on Turkish television earlier this month that the Bayraktar TB2 drones at the air base in Gecitkale - or Lefkoniko in Greek - could be scrambled much faster than from bases on mainland Turkey to “inspect the region” up to the coast of Egypt.

An Egyptian official described the deployment as another in a series of “Ankara’s provocative measures” that require a “firm reaction” from the international community - especially the United States and the European Union, of which Cyprus is a member.

“The base, along with other measures in Cyprus, Libya and the Mediterranean, would only further destabilize the region. It is alarming,” an Egyptian diplomat told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the issue.

“The latest (the base) solidifies the notion that Turkey will not be deterred through statements, but it needs actions from relevant countries,” he said.

Egypt’s ties with Turkey have frayed since the Egyptian military’s ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Ankara, in 2013.

The drones were sent to northern Cyprus in December 2019 in response to oil and gas prospecting by international energy companies licensed by the Cypriot government. Turkey claimed the prospecting off Cyprus' southern coast ignores its rights and those of Turkish Cypriots, to the area’s potential wealth of hydrocarbon deposits.

Turkey mounted a hydrocarbon search of its own in waters claimed by Cyprus and Greece. The EU condemned Turkey's actions as a breach of international law and of Cypriot and Greek sovereign rights.

At least two Bayraktar TV2 drones are currently stationed at Gecitkale. With an operating range of 200 kilometers (125 miles) and a flight ceiling of 6,100 meters (20,000 feet), the drones can can carry weapons and surveillance equipment capable of delivering real-time images to Turkish naval ships.

Turkey is said to be upgrading the Bayraktar’s systems to be satellite-guided to extend their range even farther. An intelligence report obtained by the AP indicates that the air base is receiving its own upgrade for a planned deployment of additional drones, surveillance aircraft, training planes and advanced fighter jets.

Israeli officials do not appear to consider the base to be a direct threat and declined to comment on the matter. In the past, they have objected to what they consider to be aggressive Turkish actions in the region.

Last month, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat said the Israeli government was “following with deep concern recent unilateral Turkish actions” in northern Cyprus and expressed its “solidarity and full support” for the Cypriot government.

Although Israel has refrained from official comment, Israeli Institute of Regional Strategic Studies analyst Gabriel Mitchell said the drone base is a “worrying development that will add to the existing tensions” with Turkey.

Israel has been trying to balance its support Greece and Cyprus with its efforts to leave “a door open for dialogue” with Ankara over the last decade, Mitchell said.

But Turkey's planned expansion of the drone base presents a problem because it will aggravate regional partners - particularly Greece and Cyprus - and “generate a new set of security considerations in the already overcrowded eastern Mediterranean,” the analyst said.

———

Magdy reported from Cairo and Federman reported from Jerusalem.

Turkish drones in northern Cyprus heighten regional unease - ABC News (go.com)
Click to expand...
In the recent past, every now and then, some ME location would **suddenly** go BOOM - just like that!

And, nobody seemed to know a thing about it, at that time - and/or the MSM did not report much about the event.

Whose to say that those seemingly random, destructive blasts/fire, that would destroy a location, couldn't happen again?

Seems to be the way things "work," in that part of the world.


intothegoodnight
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Didn't we just suggest to the israelis that with us pulling out of A'stan we'd be able
to devote more resources to their fights? :: shrug :: :: hmmms ::
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
2m

Update - Azerbaijan and Turkey will hold a military exercise in Azerbaijan near the border with #Iran from Tuesday to Friday.
The exercise is named "Unshakable Brotherhood," and will “develop friendship, cooperation and coordination between the Turkish and Azerbaijani Land Forces."
 
jward

jward

passin' thru





EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3


Level 1:
What a weird scenario. Turkey and Azerbaijan (with Israel) vs Iran. I thought I would never see Israel and Turkey on the same side. Erdogan's plans are probably to take out Iran then try to take out Israel then restart the Ottoman Empire.
Of course it would be a different Ottoman Empire with different borders.
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
www.dw.com

Algeria bars French planes from its airspace – DW – 10/03/2021

French armed forces have reported that flights over Algerian airspace have been cancelled. On Saturday Algeria recalled its diplomat in Paris over comments Emmanuel Macron made.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

Algeria bars French military planes from its airspace
French armed forces have reported that flights over Algerian airspace have been cancelled. On Saturday Algeria recalled its diplomat in Paris over comments Emmanuel Macron made.



French military transport planes on the tarmac in Orleans, France
France's armed forces have confirmed that planned flights over Algeria have been cancelled as diplomatic spat worsens

A diplomatic spat between Algeria and France has deepened further, with Algiers making the decision to bar French military aircraft from flying in its airspace.

The move comes after Algeria recalled its ambassador to Paris over comments President Emmanuel Macron reportedly made about the former colony.

France's decision to cut the amount of visa's issued to countries in the Maghreb has also fuelled discord between the two countries.

Air passage closed to French aircraft
A spokesperson for the French Armed Forces confirmed that planned flights assisting operations in the Sahel region of western Africa had been refused permission of passage.
"This morning when we filed flight plans for two planes, we learned that the Algerians had stopped flights over their territory by French military planes," an army spokesman, Colonel Pascal Ianni, told news agency AFP.

France is part of military operations targeting jihadist insurgents in the region and frequently flies over Algerian airspace to support ground forces.

France has around 5,000 troops taking part in Operation Barkhane, a multi-national task force that is battling Islamist insurgents in Mali and Niger. In June France announced it would be wrapping up its military operations in early 2022.



Watch video01:49
Mali: France ends 'Operation Barkhane'
What has led to this?
Both French and Algerian media have reported that Macron, in an address to Algerian descendants of those who had fought int the Algerian war that took place between 1954 and 1962, had said that Algeria's "politico-military system" had given an alternate version of history based on "a hatred of France."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444233518368886784
View: https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/1444233518368886784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1444233518368886784%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dw.com%2Fen%2Falgeria-bars-french-military-planes-from-its-airspace%2Fa-59391553

Macron also reportedly questioned whether there had been an Algerian nation before French colonial rule.

Its unclear which of the comments angered Algerian leadership, but on Saturday Algiers recalled its envoy to France, accusing Macron of interfering in Algerian internal affairs.
Paris has also taken made a decision to substantially reduce the number of vias issued to Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. This has also enflamed tensions between the two countries.
kb/aw (AFP, Reuters)
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Navigating a Sea of Challenges: A New Approach for NATO in the Eastern Mediterranean

Constantinos Saragkas and Georgios Manassis | 10.04.21

​

Navigating a Sea of Challenges: A New Approach for NATO in the Eastern Mediterranean

NATO is the most formidable military alliance in the world, capable of deploying and sustaining forces anywhere around the globe—an unprecedented degree of power projection. However, analyzing the contemporary geopolitical situation in the eastern Mediterranean shows that NATO is only one of the key players. Russia has strategically acquired the lion’s share of political and military influence in Syria and Libya, while also gradually empowering a potential rift in the alliance, enticing Turkey to change its course and drift away from the West. This fact is in stark contrast with basic NATO principles and goals, as dominance in the Mediterranean is critically vital to Europe’s stability and prosperity. In July 2020,French President Emmanuel Macron made this point unequivocally during a speech calling for a strong and unified Europe in the Mediterranean, declaring that “we must not accept that our future will be built by other powers.”
Confronting the challenges facing NATO in the Mediterranean region first requires an understanding of the reasons the alliance finds itself in this situation. Exploring those reasons will help identify potential solutions and improve prospects for the alliance. The objective must be to deny the emergence of an irreversible new status quo that will critically affect the security of NATO’s southern flank.

NATO and Russia in the Eastern Mediterranean
Verba volant, scripta manent, the ancient Romans believed—spoken words fly away, written words remain. If we look at the scripta of NATO’s official website, we find this as the alliance’s original reason for being:
The North Atlantic Alliance was founded in the aftermath of the Second World War. Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom—all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union.
Click to expand...
NATO fulfilled this mission until 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, followed by the socialist republics in Eastern Europe. For a while it seemed that NATO had lost its raison d’etre, but it quickly adjusted to the post–Cold War world. Specific events like the wars that followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the resurgence of Russia, and the US-led post-9/11 wars focused that reorientation.
NATO includes two members, Great Britain and France, with centuries of history as preeminent sea powers and one member, the United States, which came into its own as a sea power during World War II . These remain today the dominant sea powers in the alliance. Through superiority at sea, NATO thwarted any efforts of land-based powers like the Soviet Union to become sea powers capable of challenging the alliance in the maritime domain. George Liska, in his book Quest for Equilibrium: America and the Balance of Power on Land and Sea, puts forth a view of the United States during the Cold War as an insular, sea-based power searching for the means to balance the rise of the land-based Soviet Union. In today’s environment we could add Turkey, a NATO member, to the land-based powers attempting to become sea powers.

This attempt, however, must be carefully managed and, to the extent possible, influenced by the United States through and within NATO to ensure not only that it strengthens NATO’s southeastern flank but also that it deters Russian efforts to project military capability in the Mediterranean—efforts now taking place entirely from the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria. Encouraging Turkish maritime aspirations to align fully with NATO interests means that the alliance also brings into consideration the Greek-Turkish nexus—both its complexity and its potential to affect NATO’s cohesion and capability. Turkey and Greece joined the alliance in 1952 under the same protocol to the North Atlantic Treaty. This was an obvious symbolic strategic decision aiming to safeguard NATO’s southeastern flank. The fact that currently there are reasonable concerns about stability in the region is also clear proof that it warrants sustained attention from the alliance.

Russia’s Motives and Strategy in the Region
The Ottoman Empire, the predecessor state of modern Turkey, was at the height of its power in 1683, when defeat in the Battle of Vienna changed the tide and it began its long decline. By the late eighteenth century, European powers had begun to contend with the Eastern Question—the issue of how that decline would affect the rest of Europe. Russia initiated efforts to take advantage of the situation to extend its sphere of influence in the Mediterranean—the “Greek Plan” of Catherine the Great. The failure of this project said as much about the complexity of the Eastern Question as anything else. Karl Vasilyevich, Count Nesselrode, the Russian foreign minister, described this complexity in 1829. “The more one thinks about the immense question of the fall of the Turkish Empire,” he wrote, “the more one plunges into a labyrinth of difficulty and complications.” Failure of the Greek Plan aside, Russia has a long history of understanding the complexity of the southeastern Europe’s geopolitics and seeking to leverage it for Russian strategic advantage. We are witnessing the same approach from Moscow today.

Russia has a specific strategic vision for this area, which seeks to expand and maintain Moscow’s sphere of influence. This contrasts with NATO, which focuses on tactics rather than setting and following a stable strategy. If Sun Tzu could come back to life, he see this situation as a paradigm of one of his famous dictums: “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” Russian strategy in the region involves deploying covert means, information warfare, and mercenaries, which combine to give Moscow the advantage of deniability. In a contemporary strategic environment where, as Sean McFate describes, deniability will prove more effective than firepower, Russia’s approach is increasingly likely to show positive results.
Russia under Vladimir Putin has also showed itself to be a strategic opportunist. An opportunist needs two simple things: the existence of the opportunity itself and the space to take it. NATO has ‘offered’ this space by its absence at the strategic level. Russia saw the gap and, by deploying effective tools short of firepower, rushed to fill it.

How could we predict Russia’s motives in order to prevent a slow defeat in the eastern Mediterranean? After all, as Winston Churchill once said, Russia is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” But, as he continued, the “key” is to identify “Russian national interest.” To do that, an early twentieth century theory of Sir Halford John Mackinder is useful. He described a “geographical pivot in history,” and depicted his theory by identifying the core of the Eurasian landmass as the “Heartland” and the rest of Eurasia and the Mediterranean littoral as the “Rimland.” Together, these composed what he called the “World-Island.” He concluded that “who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the World.” Today it appears that Russia sees the eastern Mediterranean in the role that Mackinder placed “East Europe” in his theory.
Moreover, Moscow has adopted the Byzantine and the British Empires’ divide-and-conquer approach in the region. Russia has already succeeded to some degree in manipulating Turkey, which was supposed to be the strong and reliable barrier on NATO’s southeastern flank. Russia has also consolidated its presence in the vital areas of Syria and Libya. NATO’s search for a viable and stable solution to these moves by Russia should lead to two imperatives: taking advantage of the strategically important location of the island of Crete, and enhanced integration between the alliance and the European Union.

The Strategic Role of Crete
Crete has been considered a strategic island since the Middle Ages. Venetians and Ottomans paid particular attention to it, with both ruling it for periods of time. In modern times nothing better illustrates Crete’s strategic importance than the German decision to capture the island during World War II. The Germans wanted to prevent the British from using it as a launching pad for air raids against North Africa and the Ploesti oil fields in Romania.
Shortly after World War II, the Naval Support Activity Souda Bay (NSA Souda Bay) base was founded—around the time that Greece joined NATO. The base played a crucial role in securing NATO’s southern flank during the Cold War. NATO’s permanent presence was a security assurance for both Greece and Turkey and a deterrent to the Soviet naval presence in Syria. NSA Souda Bay contributed significantly to George F. Kennan’s strategy of containment. It is worth mentioning that Greek governments since 1952 have committed to keeping the base in Crete. Even the socialists under Andreas Papandreou in the 1980s, despite their anti-NATO rhetoric, renewed the agreement with the United States. Greek foreign policy has also long considered NATO’s presence in Crete as a deterrent to Turkish escalation in the Aegean, especially after Turkey’s invasion of Northern Cyprus in 1974.

Despite tensions between Greece and Turkey, the generally Western orientation of the Kemalist state ensured a sometimes minimal, but important, level of communication between the two NATO allies. Things started to slowly change, though, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power—a change that accelerated following the 2016 failed coup against Erdogan. Shortly after the coup attempt, in an unprecedented move, Turkey cut off power to Incirlik Air Base, and two years later sought to arrest several US military personnel who, the Turkish government contended, has ties to a US-based Turkish religious figure and opponent of Erdogan. In late 2019, Turkey even threatened to close the base. In response to these events, together with increasing anti-American rhetoric, the United States explored moving military assets from Incirlik to NSA Souda Bay.
The most public sign of a growing schism, however, came when Turkey struck a deal with Russia to purchase the S-400 air-defense system, an unprecedented anti-alliance move. Erdogan’s government justified the purchase on the grounds that Greece possesses the S-300 air defense system—although this avoids the reason Greece has that system in the first place. Athens never purchased it, but rather volunteered to host S-300s purchased by Cyprus, which Turkey threatened to strike if deployed on the island in 1998. In the latest move in this episode, just last month Erdogan expressed his government’s intention to purchase another Russian air defense system in an interview to CBS.

Amid these tensions between Turkey and NATO and Russia’s strategic approach to the eastern Mediterranean, Crete’s strategic location becomes immediately apparent. The September 2020 decision to utilize NSA Souda Bay as the permanent berthing place for the USS Hershel “Woody” Williams is evidence that US foreign policy recognizes this fact.
NSA Souda Bay can be utilized as the main base for US naval forces in the region, already providing a great variety of facilities to NATO ships. The base is capable of providing logistical support and can serve the needs of an aircraft carrier, and is home to the NATO Fleet Operational Readiness Accuracy Check Site (to check weapons and sensors) and the NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Centre. The NATO Missile Firing Installation sits just north of Souda Bay. As a result, NATO ships can meet high standards of logistics and operational training support, while remaining in a safe berthing place, close enough to the vital eastern Mediterranean area, to guarantee influence in the area—and counter Russian influence.

NATO and the EU: The Perfect Strategic Pair
“NATO and the European Union,” the alliance’s website reads, “are essential partners who share common values, strategic interests and a majority of member nations.” That partnership is critical to enhancing NATO’s ability to fulfill its missions.ΝΑΤΟ is the most powerful military alliance globally, but its brand has suffered, in a sense, across the broader region of the Middle East and North Africa after twenty years of dynamic intervention and military presence. Political legitimacy is a must for any intervention and the EU, by contrast, as a worldwide soft power brand, could inculcate the sense of legitimacy required to the peoples of the areas where NATO might act and where both organizations have shared interests. On July 8, 2016, a joint declaration by European Council President Donald Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg paved the way for a “new impetus and new substance to the NATO-EU strategic partnership.”

In order to meet the security challenges facing Europe, not least from Russia and it’s efforts in the eastern Mediterranean, this partnership must be further strengthened. Both present threats and future challenges should be managed with a combination of NATO’s hard power and the EU’s soft power. The two were combined during peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans, which is and should be regarded as a success, despite its shortcomings. Accordingly, there is sufficient potential for the EU’s Operation Irini and NATO’s Operation Sea Guardian, for example—both in the Mediterranean—to become a joint maritime operation since they serve the same principles. Such increased cooperation could become a valuable proof of concept to help improve the relationship between the two organizations and the effectiveness of a common effort at both the strategic and operational levels to serve the shared interests of both.

Toward a New Security Architecture in the Eastern Mediterranean
Upgrading the strategic role of Crete is a critical starting point of strengthening NATO’s readiness to meet challenges in the eastern Mediterranean. Controlling this area and managing challenges to stability and security there are vital to countering Russia’s strategic objectives vis-à-vis Europe. In that respect, NATO and the EU have common goals and should pursue enhanced integration in service of these goals. Combining NATO’s hard power and the EU’s soft power could stop Russia from increasing its access and influence in eastern Mediterranean. If Crete’s natural potential to serve as NATO’s most forward operating base in the region—effectively controlling the sea area stretching from the Suez Canal and the Levant across much of the Mediterranean, including the North African littoral and the transitway from the Black Sea—is harnessed, and if NATO-EU integration is enhanced, the alliance, this “unique community of values committed to the principles of individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” will be well positioned to shape Turkey’s maritime aspirations in a mutually beneficial way, manage any consequent tensions within the alliance, and most importantly, meet the Russian challenge in the region.

Constantinos I. Saragkas is a lieutenant in the Hellenic Army Reserve, 88th Military Command, bids manager at Input Output Global, and a RIEAS research associate. He holds an MSc from the London School of Economics and an MBA.
Georgios I. Manassis is a lieutenant commander in the Hellenic Navy. He has served as weapons engineering sea rider officer at the Royal Navy’s Fleet Operational Sea Training in the UK. He holds an MA in southeast Europe studies.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense, or those of any organization the authors are affiliated with, including the Hellenic government.

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Navigating a Sea of Challenges: A New Approach for NATO in the Eastern Mediterranean - Modern War Institute

NATO is the most formidable military alliance in the world, capable of deploying and sustaining forces anywhere around the globe—an unprecedented degree of power projection. However, analyzing the contemporary geopolitical […]
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