WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean
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jward
passin' thru
Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
4h
Mysterious MiG-29 fighter appears at Libyan air base held by Russian-backed forces:
View: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1263861339316838403?s=20
@Aviation_Intel
4h
Mysterious MiG-29 fighter appears at Libyan air base held by Russian-backed forces:
View: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1263861339316838403?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Mysterious MiG-29 Fighter Appears At Libyan Air Base Held By Russian-Backed ForcesThe reported arrival of advanced combat jets comes after a major shift in the front lines of Libya's civil war and could point to an expanded air war.
By Joseph TrevithickMay 21, 2020
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If true, this could represent a major escalation in the conflict in that country and it comes amid an exchange of threats between Haftar's group and Turkey, the latter of which supports the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord, or GNA. Just this week, GNA-aligned forces also routed elements of the LNA in the western portion of the country, recapturing a major base along with various weapons and other equipment.
Two Turkish Frigates Appear Off Libya Amid Reports Of Troops And Armor Landing AshoreBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
President Erdogan Says Intel Operatives Are In Libya Ahead Of Turkish Troop DeploymentBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Bizarre Airstrip Is Being Built Right Between Apartment Towers Near Libyan CapitalBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Turkey's Deepening Intervention In The Libyan Civil War Point's To Erdogan's Grand AmbitionsBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Why Russia Has Sent Troops to Egypt for Possible Operations in LibyaBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
On May 21, 2020, Brian Castner, a weapons investigator on Amnesty International's Crisis Team, posted on Twitter a satellite image taken two days earlier of Al Jufrah Air Base, which situated in the center of Libya, that showed a MiG-29 Fulcrum being towed by a truck along the base's main taxiway. The War Zone is already securing its own satellite imagery of this base to try to further confirm how many of these fighter jets, as well as any other aircraft, may be there.
Google Maps
A map showing the relative location of Al Jufrah Air Base, in the center, to Tripoli, Libya's internationally recognized capital, which the GNA controls, in the west and Benghazi, the seat of the LNA, in the east.
Google Earth
A satellite image offering a general view of Al Jufrah Air Base.
Fathi Bashagha, Interior Minister for the GNA, which is based in the internationally-recognized capital of Tripoli in western Libya, had said earlier in the day that the half dozen MiG-29s and two Su-24s – he did not specify any particular variants – had touched down somewhere in the eastern portion of Libya after flying to the country by way of Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, according to Bloomberg. Bashagha also claimed that a pair of Russian Su-35 Flankers had escorted the jets, at least on a portion of their journey.
It's worth noting that Libya, as a whole, is subject to an international arms embargo, but the United Nations has repeatedly found supporters of the GNA and the LNA violating those prohibitions. The GNA's primary benefactor, at present, is Turkey, while Haftar's LNA, which has its main hub in the eastern city of Benghazi and controls much of the rest of the country, enjoys support from Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, among others.
Where this newly arrived MiG-29, or any of these other reported arrivals, came from originally, and who might be operating them, is unclear. "It wasn’t clear whether those were refurbished jets that had belonged to Haftar’s airforce or additions to his fleet," Bloomberg's story said, but Libya has never before received MiG-29s of any kind from any source.
The Aviationist noted that there had been unconfirmed reports of six Russian MiG-29s flying to Syria by way of Iran, along with a Tu-154 passenger transport, and that these aircraft could have continued on to Libya. Russia's Tu-154s are similar in function to its Il-62Ms, which have been a typical support aircraft for similar kinds of deployments elsewhere in the world in recent years. Russia has also been a major support of Haftar's LNA in recent years and has reportedly already sent mercenaries to bolster the Libyan strongman's forces on the ground.
Additional reports, also unconfirmed, said that Belarus, a long-time Russian ally and a country that has a history of supplying aircraft to controversial regimes and countries under international arms embargoes, such as Syria, might have supplied the jets. It's also worth noting that there were reports in 2016 that Egypt, as well as Sudan, had provided combat jets to the LNA, helping to replace combat losses and general attrition due to limited maintenance capacity across its already small and diverse fleets after years of conflict. The Egyptian Air Force, which has flown direct combat operations in Libya in support of Haftar in the past, also operates advanced versions of the MiG-29M.
The full scope and origins of the LNA's apparent aerial reinforcements are not clear, nor is whether Haftar's forces are actually operating them or if a third party, such as Russia or mercenaries that Moscow or someone else has supplied, will be flying them. The appearance of a MiG-29 at Al Jufrah would fit with recent remarks from Saqr Al-Jaroushi, head of the LNA's Air Force, that the "largest aerial campaign in Libyan history" was imminent and that Turkey's forces in the country would be “legitimate targets."
Turkey has been ever-more directly embroiled in Libya's civil war since at least May 2019, supplying the GNA with a variety of armored vehicles and heavy weapons, including Bayraktar TB2 armed drones, as well as advisory support.
Turkish Presidency of Defence Industries
A Turkish TB2 carrying various precision guided munitions.
TB2s played a decisive role in the GNA's recapture of Al Watiya Air Base, which is situated to the west of Tripoli, earlier this week. GNA forces and their Turkish allies notably destroyed or captured eight Russian-made Pantsir-S1 mobile point air defense systems that the UAE had supplied to Haftar's LNA in the last year or so.
It's also interesting to note that Turkish drones decimated Syrian forces, including a number of Panstir-S1s, during a relatively brief skirmish in that country in late February that spilled over into March. The Syrian and Libyan campaigns have both been seen as underscoring previous anecdotal reports that questioned the Pantsir-S1's capabilities, as well as highlighting Turkey's increasing unmanned aircraft capabilities.
With the loss of Al Watiya, Haftar's forces have been decidedly put on the offensive and whoever may have supplied the new tranche of combat jets is undoubtedly looking to help ensure they don't lose any more ground. Positioning the aircraft at Al Jufrah would put them within range of GNA controlled territory in the western portion of the country and help keep them shielded from counterattacks.
Trips to Tripoli and back from the base could be at the edge of the combat radius of the MiG-29s depending on the variants in question. The Fuclrums are also capable of air-to-air combat, so they might not necessarily be tasked with conducting ground strikes and might instead go hunting for the GNA's own varied combat aircraft and the Turkish drones.
Regardless, Turkey's government has already responded in kind to the LNA's threats. "If Turkish interests in Libya are targeted, we will legitimately target the elements of the coup plotter Haftar," a statement from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared.
There are unconfirmed reports now that Turkey may be considering deploying its own combat aircraft to Libya, as well as ground forces. Turkish and GNA officials did conclude an agreement last year, which Turkey's parliament subsequently approved, which included provisions for Ankara to send troops to the country.
There have been numerous reports since then that the arrival of a major Turkish contingent is imminent, but so far, the deployments seem to largely be limited to special operations forces, intelligence operatives, and various supporting elements. Turkish Navy warships have been patrolling off the coast. In addition, Turkey has facilitated the deployment of a significant number of militiamen from Syria to Libya to fight on behalf of the GNA, as well as the curious construction of a so-far-unused airstrip bizarrely located inside a residential development just outside of Tripoli.
Vitaly V. Kuzmin/Wikicommons
MiG-29 Fulcrum.
There is a definite possibility that the conflict is about to escalate again now and draw in the GNA and LNA's respective benefactors even more directly. At the same time, Russian officials announced earlier on May 21 that it had already been in contact with the Turkish counterparts and that both countries were calling for a ceasefire. Moscow and Ankara similarly brokered a deal to end Turkey's campaign against forces aligned with Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad in March.
It is worth noting, however, that the two countries had worked to get the GNA and the LNA to agree to ceasefire deal earlier this year. Haftar rejected that proposal, instead choosing to launch his latest failed offensive to try to capture Tripoli.
All told, it remains to be seen what the full extent of the LNA's aerial reinforcements actually is and whether they are a prelude to a new and more serious burst of fighting or if they will provide a deterrent effect against the GNA that leads to at least a temporary pause in the conflict.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
posted for fair use
Mysterious MiG-29 Fighter Appears At Libyan Air Base Held By Russian-Backed Forces
The reported arrival of advanced combat jets comes after a major shift in the front lines of Libya's civil war and could point to an expanded air war.
www.thedrive.com
jward
passin' thru
Samer Al-Atrush
@SameralAtrush
7m
Since yesterday, LNA and allied aircraft have been attacking and striking Gharyan. Difficult to believe it's a prelude to a serious effort to retake the city. But LNA would need some sort of victory in response to its losses over the month.
Mohamed Eljarh
@Eljarh
4m
More escalation is expected on various fronts - West, South, and Central regions. Political/diplomatic push will require months to result in something tangible/meaningful if it does at all. #Libya
@SameralAtrush
7m
Since yesterday, LNA and allied aircraft have been attacking and striking Gharyan. Difficult to believe it's a prelude to a serious effort to retake the city. But LNA would need some sort of victory in response to its losses over the month.
Mohamed Eljarh
@Eljarh
4m
More escalation is expected on various fronts - West, South, and Central regions. Political/diplomatic push will require months to result in something tangible/meaningful if it does at all. #Libya
jward
passin' thru
EHA News
@eha_news
5h
Turkish TRT publishes the documentary of Turkey’s first Unmanned Attack Aircraft AKINCI.
• Can carry 1,350 kg of ammunition.
• Can perform air mission at 40,000 feet altitude.
• Turkey will become among the 3 countries that developed this technology in the world.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1264645856046678016?s=20
@eha_news
5h
Turkish TRT publishes the documentary of Turkey’s first Unmanned Attack Aircraft AKINCI.
• Can carry 1,350 kg of ammunition.
• Can perform air mission at 40,000 feet altitude.
• Turkey will become among the 3 countries that developed this technology in the world.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1264645856046678016?s=20
jward
passin' thru
humm. Interesting.
אינטלי טיימס - INTELLI TIMES
@IntelliTimes
תיעוד מאימוני הכוחות המיוחדים של החיזבאללה ( כוחות רדואן + גדודי אל פאדל). חיפשנו את התג הייחודי של כוח רדואן.
Translated from Hebrew by
Documentation from Hizbullah Special Forces Training (Radwan + Al Fadal Regiments). We searched for the unique badge of Radwan power.
View: https://twitter.com/IntelliTimes/status/1264877727422783488?s=20
אינטלי טיימס - INTELLI TIMES
@IntelliTimes
תיעוד מאימוני הכוחות המיוחדים של החיזבאללה ( כוחות רדואן + גדודי אל פאדל). חיפשנו את התג הייחודי של כוח רדואן.
Translated from Hebrew by
Documentation from Hizbullah Special Forces Training (Radwan + Al Fadal Regiments). We searched for the unique badge of Radwan power.
View: https://twitter.com/IntelliTimes/status/1264877727422783488?s=20
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
Islamic State says it was behind blast in southern town
Islamic State said on Monday it was behind a blast in a small town in southern Libya on Saturday, the militant group's first attack in the country for at least a year.
www.reuters.com
NEWS
MAY 25, 2020 / 11:46 AM / UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO
Islamic State says it was behind blast in southern town
2 MIN READ
BENGHAZI, Libya (Reuters) - Islamic State said on Monday it was behind a blast in a small town in southern Libya on Saturday, the militant group’s first attack in the country for at least a year.
The blast targeted a security point at the entrance to Taraghin, 780 km (590 miles) south of Tripoli, but did not cause any casualties, a resident said.
A local military commander, Abdesselam Shanqala, said the explosives were concealed in a vehicle belonging to the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) and there were no casualties.
An LNA military source said Islamic State was growing more active in the south after the arrest of one of its commanders.
The last attack in Libya that Islamic State said it was responsible for took place in May last year on a pipeline in the south.
The group became active in Libya after the turmoil that followed the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and it took control of the coastal city of Sirte in 2015 but lost it in late 2016 to local forces backed by U.S. airstrikes.
Reporting By Angus McDowall; Editing by Angus MacSwan
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
jward
passin' thru
M.LNA
@LNA2019M
5m
In a phone call, Egyptian President Abdelfatah Al-Sissi & Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis both rejected foreign interference in the Libyan crisis. #Libya
View: https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1265171953587027969?s=20
@LNA2019M
5m
In a phone call, Egyptian President Abdelfatah Al-Sissi & Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis both rejected foreign interference in the Libyan crisis. #Libya
View: https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1265171953587027969?s=20
jward
passin' thru
M.LNA
@LNA2019M
Ιταλικές & τουρκικές φρεγάτες ''πολιορκούν'' την Λιβύη - Ρώσοι αναλυτές ''κάρφωσαν'' τους Τούρκους για τα Pantsir
Translated from Greek by
Italian & Turkish frigates "besiege" Libya - Russian analysts "nailed" the Turks for the Pantsir
View: https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1265172962497396738?s=20
Islamic State says it was behind blast in southern town
Islamic State said on Monday it was behind a blast in a small town in southern Libya on Saturday, the militant group's first attack in the country for at least a year.
NEWS
MAY 25, 2020 / 11:46 AM / UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO
Islamic State says it was behind blast in southern town
2 MIN READ
BENGHAZI, Libya (Reuters) - Islamic State said on Monday it was behind a blast in a small town in southern Libya on Saturday, the militant group’s first attack in the country for at least a year.
The blast targeted a security point at the entrance to Taraghin, 780 km (590 miles) south of Tripoli, but did not cause any casualties, a resident said.
A local military commander, Abdesselam Shanqala, said the explosives were concealed in a vehicle belonging to the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) and there were no casualties.
An LNA military source said Islamic State was growing more active in the south after the arrest of one of its commanders.
The last attack in Libya that Islamic State said it was responsible for took place in May last year on a pipeline in the south.
The group became active in Libya after the turmoil that followed the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and it took control of the coastal city of Sirte in 2015 but lost it in late 2016 to local forces backed by U.S. airstrikes.
Reporting By Angus McDowall; Editing by Angus MacSwan
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
So Daesh has sided with the "UN backed" regime in Tripoli with the Turks....interesting.....
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
I was afraid to comment about this because I can't claim to remember every nuance of this thread, but yes. This was a head scratcher for me. And just as the Russians are standing down.
jward
passin' thru
nde
@5472_nde
6m
https://dailysabah.com/politics/libyan-army-pauses-operations-as-wagner-mercenaries-airlifted/news
Libyan Army pauses operations as Wagner mercenaries airlifted
View: https://twitter.com/5472_nde/status/1265238017213640705?s=20
article posted in it's entirety below:
Libyan Army pauses operations as Wagner mercenaries airlifted
by DAILY SABAH WITH AGENCIES
May 26, 2020 10:51 am GMT+3
A policeman and a man inspect a passenger plane damaged by shelling at Tripoli's Mitiga airport in Tripoli, Libya May 10, 2020. (Reuters File Photo)
The Libyan Army paused operations in Tarhouna, Bani Waleed and Nasma regions for 48 hours as the forces loyal to putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar withdraw from the areas, a statement by the press office of Operation Volcano of Rage said Monday.
The military will continue to carry out aerial surveillance in the area, the statement said, adding that any forces heading toward the north will be targeted, Anadolu Agency (AA) reported.
Meanwhile, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) condemned Haftar militias for laying improvised explosive devices (IEDs) as they are withdrawing.
“UNSMIL is extremely concerned about reports that residents of the Ain Zara and Salahuddin areas of Tripoli have been killed or wounded by Improvised Explosive Devices placed in/near their homes,” a statement by the UNSMIL said, adding that the civilians were deliberately targeted as they are celebrating the Eid holiday.
The mission also lauded the work of Libyan Police and Military Engineers who have received training from the U.N. and are striving to clear IEDs from the areas.
Meanwhile, the members of the Tobruk-based pro-Haftar assembly on Monday rejected an attempted coup by the warlord.
This came in a statement issued by 11 prominent members of the Tobruk-based assembly in which they stressed support to a peace initiative proposed by its speaker Aguila Saleh.
Notably, the assembly currently holds its sessions with only some one-fifth of its 200 members.
With the continuous defeats of Haftar in the battlefield against Libyan government forces, Saleh announced late April a proposal to reach a political solution to the crisis.
Immediately after the proposal, Haftar declared himself the sole ruler of Libya, dropping the U.N.-brokered Skhirat agreement signed in 2015 between Libyan warring sides, the move which was condemned by international actors and regional allies.
Haftar, however, was unable to overthrow the Tobruk-based House of Representatives and its speaker Saleh -- who was seen as a subordinate of Haftar -- as he enjoys major tribal support in East Libya.
Military aircraft fly Wagner Group mercenaries out of Libya
At least eight military transport planes arrived in East Libya to airlift mercenaries of the Russian Wagner Group out of the country.
The government-led Burkan Al-Ghadab, or Volcano of Rage, Operation, tweeted on Monday that an Antonov An-32 military cargo plane landed at Bani Walid Airport to "resume the transportation of the Wagner mercenaries."
On Sunday, Salem Alaywan, Mayor of the town Bani Walid said that the Wagner Group, which supported Haftar, left the country.
Burkan Al-Ghadab went on to say that it had on Sunday spotted seven military cargo planes that arrived at the same airport.
It pointed out that the seven aircraft brought ammunition and military equipment before being boarded by the Russian mercenaries, adding that 1,500 to 1,600 mercenaries had fled clashes against government forces around the capital Tripoli to the Bani Walid area.
The government, also known as the Government of National Accord, has been under attack by Haftar's forces since April 2019.
His illegal forces in eastern Libya have launched several attacks to capture Tripoli, with more than 1,000 killed in the violence.
The government launched Operation Peace Storm on March 26 to counter attacks on the capital. Following the ouster of late ruler Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, Libya's new government was founded in 2015 under a U.N.-led political deal.
posted for fair use
Libyan Army pauses operations as Wagner mercenaries airlifted
The Libyan Army paused operations for 48 hours during a withdrawal of Haftar's forces, while the U.N. condemned the putschist general's militias...www.dailysabah.com
jward
passin' thru
US AFRICOM
@USAfricaCommand
54m
NEWS: Russia deploys military fighter aircraft to Libya ----- "For too long, Russia has denied the full extent of its involvement in the ongoing Libyan conflict. Well, there is no denying it now." - Gen. Townsend Release: https://go.usa.gov/xwah3 Photos: https://go.usa.gov/xwaSf
View: https://twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1265240771269197830?s=20
Article found in it's entirety below:
Last edited:
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
So now I am confused. Has Russia been simply repositioning its assets?
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Not shocked and yes Russia is repositioning its assets
jward
passin' thru
Yörük Işık
@YorukIsik
·
4h
Mysterious planes of interest: Qatar Emiri Air Force’s two C-17A Globemaster III (likely MAC/#06A255 & MAO/#06A27C) heavy transports, usually based at Al Udeid AFB, climbed out of Istanbul Grand and flew over Bosphorus to unknown destination in Sahel, possibly to #Libya
View: https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1265347143159726087?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Mohamed Eljarh
@Eljarh
22h
So far, credible data on the No. of mercenaries in #Libya as follows: 1- GNA: 6000-9000 Turkish-linked Syrian mercenaries + around 500 mercenaries from Sudanese/Chadian rebel groups. 2- LNA: Around 1200 Wagner mercenaries + 2700 mercenaries from Sudanese/Chadian rebel groups.
@Eljarh
22h
So far, credible data on the No. of mercenaries in #Libya as follows: 1- GNA: 6000-9000 Turkish-linked Syrian mercenaries + around 500 mercenaries from Sudanese/Chadian rebel groups. 2- LNA: Around 1200 Wagner mercenaries + 2700 mercenaries from Sudanese/Chadian rebel groups.
jward
passin' thru
EHA News
@eha_news
4h
#Turkish frigates and Italian destroyers off the coast of #Libya.
Turkish G-class frigates and an Italian Horizon class destroyer were sighted off the coast of capital #Tripoli.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1265359521561665537?s=20
@eha_news
4h
#Turkish frigates and Italian destroyers off the coast of #Libya.
Turkish G-class frigates and an Italian Horizon class destroyer were sighted off the coast of capital #Tripoli.
View: https://twitter.com/eha_news/status/1265359521561665537?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Al-Masdar News
@TheArabSource
Libyan Army prepares for major offensive to capture key city https://is.gd/BbRWz1 #Libya #LNA #Misrata
View: https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1265439080344702976?s=20
@TheArabSource
Libyan Army prepares for major offensive to capture key city https://is.gd/BbRWz1 #Libya #LNA #Misrata
View: https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/1265439080344702976?s=20
jward
passin' thru
I think there is credible tracing of those crafts going in to be painted, and coming out painted- so the cookie crumbs are smeared all over his face, and that "thin deniability" has been lost.
As to the saving the bullet strategy, "we're all soldiers soon" comes to mind but I think the night is dark enough without that line of thought
As to the saving the bullet strategy, "we're all soldiers soon" comes to mind but I think the night is dark enough without that line of thought
jward
passin' thru
FDD
@FDD
·
1h
.
@aykan_erdemir
,
@varshakoduvayur
, and
@philip_kowalski
: Turkish Proxy Gains in #Libya are No Cure for #Ankara’s Growing Isolation
View: https://twitter.com/FDD/status/1265813809933025281?s=20
jward
passin' thru
May 26, 2020 Topic: Security Region: Middle East Blog Brand: Middle East Watch Tags: TurkeyRecep ErdoganLibyaMuslim BrotherhoodMiddle East
Turkish Proxy Gains in Libya are No Cure for Ankara’s Growing Isolation
Ankara’s growing military footprint in Libya is President Recep Erdogan’s effort to compensate for his failure to establish Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated governments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa.
by Aykan Erdemir Varsha Koduvayur Philip Kowalski
Forget George W. Bush’s “axis of evil.” The Turkish foreign ministry has identified a new “alliance of evil,” comprising the unlikely combination of France, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. What the five countries have in common is that they issued a joint denunciation on May 11 of Turkey’s “violations of international law,” including shipments of weapons to Libya in defiance of a UN arms embargo and drilling in Cypriot territorial waters. The temperature of Ankara’s rhetoric and the diversity of its targets both underscore how isolated Turkey has become thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s adventures in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Ankara’s growing military footprint in Libya is Erdogan’s effort to compensate for his failure to establish Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated governments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa. Since December 2019, Erdogan has provided military support to western Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Libya is critical to Erdogan because it provides him an opportunity to put pressure on Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, with which Turkey is locked in a fierce battle for geopolitical influence across the region. The battlefield also offers Erdogan a chance to flex his neo-Ottomanist ideology—Libya holds an important place in the hearts of the late empire’s admirers, who see Italy’s 1912 conquest of the territory as a stinging defeat, and the present conflict as an opportunity avenge the perceived injustice.
The key role Libya plays in Erdogan’s regional strategy makes the GNA and its prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj, ever more crucial for the Turkish president. The GNA’s main adversary is the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, which is supported by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and unofficially by France, and came close to capturing Tripoli in April 2019. Haftar’s battlefield gains prompted the GNA to seek military assistance from Turkey in December, resulting in a flood of Turkish material and advisors to the country. Later, the Turkish parliament even approved a one year mandate for military deployment to Libya.
Since January 2020, at least four major cargo ships transporting military equipment from Turkey to the GNA docked in Tripoli and Misrata. There are reportedly at least one hundred Turkish military personnel and eighty-six Turkish-made and Qatari-funded Bayraktar TB2 drones operating in Libya, which Ankara exports in violation of the UN embargo. In addition, Turkey has airlifted at least four thousand Syrian fighters to Libya to aid the GNA, pulled from Ankara’s various Sunni militant proxies. These proxies reportedly also include child soldiers as young as fourteen.
The tide of war has turned with Erdogan’s intervention, with the frontline of the conflict moving south, away from the capital. GNA forces have reestablished control between Tripoli and the Tunisian border to the west, captured al-Watiya airbase on May 18, and continue to push their way forward to Haftar’s stronghold in Tarhuna, which he used to besiege the capital. The LNA’s May 21 threat to unleash the “largest aerial campaign in Libyan history” and declaration of all Turkish positions as “legitimate targets” will not suffice to reverse its fortunes.
While Erdogan supports the GNA for ideological and geopolitical reasons, there is also an economic element. Tapping into hydrocarbon resources in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean is central to Ankara’s thinking about the region. In January 2019, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority established the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo. France requested to join the forum as well and the United States applied to become a permanent observer. As Turkey’s ambitions and actions leave it further isolated, Erdogan has come to see the GNA as a key ally in thwarting this growing partnership that aims to contain his maximalist maritime ambitions.
To that end, Turkey signed a maritime boundary agreement with the GNA in November 2019 with the goal of creating a sea corridor between the two countries that stretched from southwest Turkey to northeast Libya, cutting through a zone claimed by Greece and Egypt. Moreover, Turkey has ambitions to play a key economic role in post-pandemic Libya, with the head of the Turkey-Libya Business Council predicting that Turkey can increase the market share of its products in the war-torn country from its current level of 13 percent to 30 percent.
On paper, Turkey’s support for the UN-recognized government of Libya should not raise eyebrows. But though it receives the UN’s backing, the GNA—four years after its birth—is still just a loose coalition of various militia factions, and has not expanded its territorial control beyond pockets in western Libya. Moreover, there are reports of jihadists serving among the ranks of pro-GNA militia and concerns that extremists could gain access to Libya’s oil wealth.
Despite Turkish successes on the battlefield, Ankara still has a very long way to go if it wants to completely defeat the LNA, with the front lines being far away from Haftar’s headquarters in Libya’s east.
Turkey’s support for the GNA and Sarraj is matched by the support the UAE and Egypt have provided to the LNA and Haftar, viewing the rogue general as a bulwark against the spread of political Islam in Libya—even though ultra-conservative Madkhali Salafists form an important contingent within the LNA. The UAE’s aid to Haftar has only expanded since his Tripoli campaign began, and both Abu Dhabi and Cairo have violated the UN arms embargo. Abu Dhabi has carried out over 850 airstrikes for Haftar and is also thought to have sent over one hundred deliveries of weapons by air between mid-January and mid-March alone, amounting to nearly five thousand metric tons.
Most recently, UAE-based companies were implicated in sending eastern Libya nearly eleven thousand tons of jet fuel, in further violation of the embargo. Additionally, the UAE is reported to have sent thousands of Sudanese men to fight in Libya. And while the UAE may be Haftar’s most committed backer, the septuagenarian warlord is also supported by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even Russia, which, according to a new UN report, has sent between eight hundred to twelve hundred mercenaries from its infamous Wagner group to the war-torn country.
With such an influx of foreign powers, the war of words was bound to heat up alongside the military conflict. On April 30, the UAE slammed Turkey’s designs on Libya by expressing its “categorical rejection of the Turkish military intervention” in Arab affairs. Turkey responded by accusing the UAE of “providing putschists in Libya with weapons, military equipment and mercenaries.” On May 12, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu doubled down by blaming the UAE and Egypt for “trying to destabilize the whole region.” Cavusoglu’s barbs against the UAE, in particular, were pointed, with the minister claiming, “If you are asking who is destabilizing this region, who is bringing chaos, then we would say Abu Dhabi without any hesitation.”
The military conflict between Libya’s warring factions, and their respective patrons, is as much about the control of Libya and its resources as it is about the future of the Middle East and North Africa and the potential role the Muslim Brotherhood may play there. Given that the bitter hostility is not just about ideology, but also about the political survival of the governments and leaders involved, there does not seem to be a quick resolution to the Libyan civil war or any sustainable cessation to the armed conflict even during the coronavirus pandemic. Libya’s European neighbors across the Mediterranean, who have for the most part chosen to take a backseat in the country’s civil war, might want to brace for impact for yet another wave of humanitarian fallout and refugees resulting from the country’s protracted conflict.
Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Varsha Koduvayur is a senior research analyst focusing on the Gulf and Philip Kowalski is a research associate focusing on Turkey.
posted for fair use
nationalinterest.org
Turkish Proxy Gains in Libya are No Cure for Ankara’s Growing Isolation
Ankara’s growing military footprint in Libya is President Recep Erdogan’s effort to compensate for his failure to establish Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated governments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa.
by Aykan Erdemir Varsha Koduvayur Philip Kowalski
Forget George W. Bush’s “axis of evil.” The Turkish foreign ministry has identified a new “alliance of evil,” comprising the unlikely combination of France, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. What the five countries have in common is that they issued a joint denunciation on May 11 of Turkey’s “violations of international law,” including shipments of weapons to Libya in defiance of a UN arms embargo and drilling in Cypriot territorial waters. The temperature of Ankara’s rhetoric and the diversity of its targets both underscore how isolated Turkey has become thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s adventures in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Ankara’s growing military footprint in Libya is Erdogan’s effort to compensate for his failure to establish Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated governments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa. Since December 2019, Erdogan has provided military support to western Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli. Libya is critical to Erdogan because it provides him an opportunity to put pressure on Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, with which Turkey is locked in a fierce battle for geopolitical influence across the region. The battlefield also offers Erdogan a chance to flex his neo-Ottomanist ideology—Libya holds an important place in the hearts of the late empire’s admirers, who see Italy’s 1912 conquest of the territory as a stinging defeat, and the present conflict as an opportunity avenge the perceived injustice.
The key role Libya plays in Erdogan’s regional strategy makes the GNA and its prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj, ever more crucial for the Turkish president. The GNA’s main adversary is the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, which is supported by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and unofficially by France, and came close to capturing Tripoli in April 2019. Haftar’s battlefield gains prompted the GNA to seek military assistance from Turkey in December, resulting in a flood of Turkish material and advisors to the country. Later, the Turkish parliament even approved a one year mandate for military deployment to Libya.
Since January 2020, at least four major cargo ships transporting military equipment from Turkey to the GNA docked in Tripoli and Misrata. There are reportedly at least one hundred Turkish military personnel and eighty-six Turkish-made and Qatari-funded Bayraktar TB2 drones operating in Libya, which Ankara exports in violation of the UN embargo. In addition, Turkey has airlifted at least four thousand Syrian fighters to Libya to aid the GNA, pulled from Ankara’s various Sunni militant proxies. These proxies reportedly also include child soldiers as young as fourteen.
The tide of war has turned with Erdogan’s intervention, with the frontline of the conflict moving south, away from the capital. GNA forces have reestablished control between Tripoli and the Tunisian border to the west, captured al-Watiya airbase on May 18, and continue to push their way forward to Haftar’s stronghold in Tarhuna, which he used to besiege the capital. The LNA’s May 21 threat to unleash the “largest aerial campaign in Libyan history” and declaration of all Turkish positions as “legitimate targets” will not suffice to reverse its fortunes.
While Erdogan supports the GNA for ideological and geopolitical reasons, there is also an economic element. Tapping into hydrocarbon resources in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean is central to Ankara’s thinking about the region. In January 2019, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority established the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo. France requested to join the forum as well and the United States applied to become a permanent observer. As Turkey’s ambitions and actions leave it further isolated, Erdogan has come to see the GNA as a key ally in thwarting this growing partnership that aims to contain his maximalist maritime ambitions.
To that end, Turkey signed a maritime boundary agreement with the GNA in November 2019 with the goal of creating a sea corridor between the two countries that stretched from southwest Turkey to northeast Libya, cutting through a zone claimed by Greece and Egypt. Moreover, Turkey has ambitions to play a key economic role in post-pandemic Libya, with the head of the Turkey-Libya Business Council predicting that Turkey can increase the market share of its products in the war-torn country from its current level of 13 percent to 30 percent.
On paper, Turkey’s support for the UN-recognized government of Libya should not raise eyebrows. But though it receives the UN’s backing, the GNA—four years after its birth—is still just a loose coalition of various militia factions, and has not expanded its territorial control beyond pockets in western Libya. Moreover, there are reports of jihadists serving among the ranks of pro-GNA militia and concerns that extremists could gain access to Libya’s oil wealth.
Despite Turkish successes on the battlefield, Ankara still has a very long way to go if it wants to completely defeat the LNA, with the front lines being far away from Haftar’s headquarters in Libya’s east.
Turkey’s support for the GNA and Sarraj is matched by the support the UAE and Egypt have provided to the LNA and Haftar, viewing the rogue general as a bulwark against the spread of political Islam in Libya—even though ultra-conservative Madkhali Salafists form an important contingent within the LNA. The UAE’s aid to Haftar has only expanded since his Tripoli campaign began, and both Abu Dhabi and Cairo have violated the UN arms embargo. Abu Dhabi has carried out over 850 airstrikes for Haftar and is also thought to have sent over one hundred deliveries of weapons by air between mid-January and mid-March alone, amounting to nearly five thousand metric tons.
Most recently, UAE-based companies were implicated in sending eastern Libya nearly eleven thousand tons of jet fuel, in further violation of the embargo. Additionally, the UAE is reported to have sent thousands of Sudanese men to fight in Libya. And while the UAE may be Haftar’s most committed backer, the septuagenarian warlord is also supported by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even Russia, which, according to a new UN report, has sent between eight hundred to twelve hundred mercenaries from its infamous Wagner group to the war-torn country.
With such an influx of foreign powers, the war of words was bound to heat up alongside the military conflict. On April 30, the UAE slammed Turkey’s designs on Libya by expressing its “categorical rejection of the Turkish military intervention” in Arab affairs. Turkey responded by accusing the UAE of “providing putschists in Libya with weapons, military equipment and mercenaries.” On May 12, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu doubled down by blaming the UAE and Egypt for “trying to destabilize the whole region.” Cavusoglu’s barbs against the UAE, in particular, were pointed, with the minister claiming, “If you are asking who is destabilizing this region, who is bringing chaos, then we would say Abu Dhabi without any hesitation.”
The military conflict between Libya’s warring factions, and their respective patrons, is as much about the control of Libya and its resources as it is about the future of the Middle East and North Africa and the potential role the Muslim Brotherhood may play there. Given that the bitter hostility is not just about ideology, but also about the political survival of the governments and leaders involved, there does not seem to be a quick resolution to the Libyan civil war or any sustainable cessation to the armed conflict even during the coronavirus pandemic. Libya’s European neighbors across the Mediterranean, who have for the most part chosen to take a backseat in the country’s civil war, might want to brace for impact for yet another wave of humanitarian fallout and refugees resulting from the country’s protracted conflict.
Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Varsha Koduvayur is a senior research analyst focusing on the Gulf and Philip Kowalski is a research associate focusing on Turkey.
posted for fair use
Turkish Proxy Gains in Libya are No Cure for Ankara’s Growing Isolation
Ankara’s growing military footprint in Libya is President Recep Erdogan’s effort to compensate for his failure to establish Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated governments in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa.
nationalinterest.org
jward
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OSINT Editor - Community powered
@osinteditor
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In a potentially interesting twist, a new vessel joins the crowded seas of #libya What looks like a Horizon class destroyer east of Tunisia Given #SIGINT, location and #Italy Navy positions, it COULD be from #France #OSINT #TURKEY
@il_kanguru
@PutinIsAVirus
View: https://twitter.com/osinteditor/status/1265885886903914497?s=20
@osinteditor
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2m
In a potentially interesting twist, a new vessel joins the crowded seas of #libya What looks like a Horizon class destroyer east of Tunisia Given #SIGINT, location and #Italy Navy positions, it COULD be from #France #OSINT #TURKEY
@il_kanguru
@PutinIsAVirus
View: https://twitter.com/osinteditor/status/1265885886903914497?s=20
jward
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Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
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Close-up images emerge of unmarked MiG-29 fighters at Russia's air base in Syria:
View: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1266067958725406720?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Close-Up Images Emerge Of Unmarked MiG-29 Fighters At Russia's Air Base In Syria
The configuration and paint schemes match up with imagery the American military has released of MiG-29s that then headed to Libya.
By Joseph Trevithick
May 28, 2020
via @200_zoka
SHARE
Pictures have emerged on social media of unmarked MiG-29 Fulcrums parked at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria last week. The War Zone was first to confirm that these jets had arrived at that Syrian base before they they headed on to Libya, surreptitious movements that U.S. Africa Command has since released additional information about this week. Those aircraft, as well as other combat jets, are now in a position to support forces aligned with rogue Libyan general Khalifa Haftar, who has been fighting for years against the country's U.N.-recognized government.
Russia Now Has At Least 14 Combat Jets In Libya As Satellite Images Reveal New DetailsBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
MiG-29 Fighters Were At Russia's Air Base In Syria Just Before Showing Up In Libya (Updated)By Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Mysterious MiG-29 Fighter Appears At Libyan Air Base Held By Russian-Backed ForcesBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
We've Got A Close Up Look At Syria's MiG-29s And It Isn't PrettyBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Two Turkish Frigates Appear Off Libya Amid Reports Of Troops And Armor Landing AshoreBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
The pictures offer a clear look at one unmarked Fulcrum and the tail of a second one is also visible in the background. The areas of their tails where national insignia, such as the red star of the Russian Air Force, are typically painted on MiG-29s are clearly painted over. The jets also lack any other discernable markings.
The jet that is the main focus of the pictures appears to be a variant in the MiG-29S series, which are generally identifiable based on the extended strakes leading forward from each of the twin tails. It's not otherwise clear whether this might be an upgraded variant within that series, such as the MiG-29SM. MiG has also crafted a number of customer-specific configurations based on the MiG-29S pattern. The example in Syria does notably lack the extended dorsal hump found on the advanced MiG-29SMT variant, though.
via @200_zoka
The unmarked MiG-29 at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.
via @200_zoka
A closeup of the nose of the MiG-29. The tail of a second unmarked Fulcrum is visible to the right.
The pictures are also definitely from Khmeimim, but the exact date they were taken is unconfirmed. The social media posts, which first began to appear late yesterday, say the photographs are from May 20. The first evidence of MiG-29s at Al Jufrah Air Base in Libya was from a satellite image taken on May 19.
The aircraft we can see in the picture from Khmeimim is also in a ferry configuration with two drop tanks and no other stores. This, plus the other features of the jet we can see, matches up with imagery, seen below, that U.S. military aircraft grabbed of unmarked MiG-29s heading to Libya, which U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) released this week.
AFRICOM
AFRICOM
The various social media posts that included the pictures from Khmeimim also claimed that some number of the Russian MiG-29s were also turned over to the Syrian Air Force. There is no evidence to substantiate this, but it would make sense that the regime in Damascus would be looking to get newer Fulcrums to supplement or supplant its existing examples. The Syrian Ministry of Defense recently released videos giving up-close looks at some of its MiG-29s, the state of which was extremely poor, as The War Zone previously reported.
Syrian Ministry of Defense capture
A screengrab from an official Syrian Ministry of Defense video showing one of that country's MiG-29s in very poor condition.
Russia has offered no explanation of the MiG-29 movements themselves. "If the warplanes are in Libya, they are Soviet, not Russian," Viktor Bondarev, who heads up the Defense Committee in the upper house of Russia's Duma, or parliament, and who was also the commander of Russia's Aerospace Forces between 2015 and 2017, said on May 27, implying that they came from another country. He further dismissed the imagery and other details that AFRICOM has released so far as "stupidity," according to The Associated Press.
However, it's clear that Russia has sent MiG-29s to Libya and the images taken on the ground at Khmeimim of the unmarked jets only further underscores the preposterousness of Bondarev's denials.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
MORE TO READ
Posted for fair use
www.thedrive.com
The configuration and paint schemes match up with imagery the American military has released of MiG-29s that then headed to Libya.
By Joseph Trevithick
May 28, 2020
SHARE
Pictures have emerged on social media of unmarked MiG-29 Fulcrums parked at Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria last week. The War Zone was first to confirm that these jets had arrived at that Syrian base before they they headed on to Libya, surreptitious movements that U.S. Africa Command has since released additional information about this week. Those aircraft, as well as other combat jets, are now in a position to support forces aligned with rogue Libyan general Khalifa Haftar, who has been fighting for years against the country's U.N.-recognized government.
Russia Now Has At Least 14 Combat Jets In Libya As Satellite Images Reveal New DetailsBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
MiG-29 Fighters Were At Russia's Air Base In Syria Just Before Showing Up In Libya (Updated)By Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Mysterious MiG-29 Fighter Appears At Libyan Air Base Held By Russian-Backed ForcesBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
We've Got A Close Up Look At Syria's MiG-29s And It Isn't PrettyBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Two Turkish Frigates Appear Off Libya Amid Reports Of Troops And Armor Landing AshoreBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
The pictures offer a clear look at one unmarked Fulcrum and the tail of a second one is also visible in the background. The areas of their tails where national insignia, such as the red star of the Russian Air Force, are typically painted on MiG-29s are clearly painted over. The jets also lack any other discernable markings.
The jet that is the main focus of the pictures appears to be a variant in the MiG-29S series, which are generally identifiable based on the extended strakes leading forward from each of the twin tails. It's not otherwise clear whether this might be an upgraded variant within that series, such as the MiG-29SM. MiG has also crafted a number of customer-specific configurations based on the MiG-29S pattern. The example in Syria does notably lack the extended dorsal hump found on the advanced MiG-29SMT variant, though.
via @200_zoka
The unmarked MiG-29 at Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.
via @200_zoka
A closeup of the nose of the MiG-29. The tail of a second unmarked Fulcrum is visible to the right.
The pictures are also definitely from Khmeimim, but the exact date they were taken is unconfirmed. The social media posts, which first began to appear late yesterday, say the photographs are from May 20. The first evidence of MiG-29s at Al Jufrah Air Base in Libya was from a satellite image taken on May 19.
U.S. Africa Command did say that the Fulcrums, as well as other combat jets, including Su-24 Fencers, flew to the Libyan base over the course of multiple days. Satellite imagery that The War Zone obtained showed MiG-29s had arrived at Khmeimim by May 18 and indicated that all of those jets had departed by May 25.
The aircraft we can see in the picture from Khmeimim is also in a ferry configuration with two drop tanks and no other stores. This, plus the other features of the jet we can see, matches up with imagery, seen below, that U.S. military aircraft grabbed of unmarked MiG-29s heading to Libya, which U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) released this week.
AFRICOM
AFRICOM
The various social media posts that included the pictures from Khmeimim also claimed that some number of the Russian MiG-29s were also turned over to the Syrian Air Force. There is no evidence to substantiate this, but it would make sense that the regime in Damascus would be looking to get newer Fulcrums to supplement or supplant its existing examples. The Syrian Ministry of Defense recently released videos giving up-close looks at some of its MiG-29s, the state of which was extremely poor, as The War Zone previously reported.
Syrian Ministry of Defense capture
A screengrab from an official Syrian Ministry of Defense video showing one of that country's MiG-29s in very poor condition.
Russia has offered no explanation of the MiG-29 movements themselves. "If the warplanes are in Libya, they are Soviet, not Russian," Viktor Bondarev, who heads up the Defense Committee in the upper house of Russia's Duma, or parliament, and who was also the commander of Russia's Aerospace Forces between 2015 and 2017, said on May 27, implying that they came from another country. He further dismissed the imagery and other details that AFRICOM has released so far as "stupidity," according to The Associated Press.
However, it's clear that Russia has sent MiG-29s to Libya and the images taken on the ground at Khmeimim of the unmarked jets only further underscores the preposterousness of Bondarev's denials.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
MORE TO READ
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Russia Now Has At Least 14 Combat Jets In Libya As Satellite Images Reveal New Details
It's now clear that the Kremlin has launched a major airpower intervention into the country.
READ NOW - RELATED
MiG-29 Fighters Were At Russia's Air Base In Syria Just Before Showing Up In Libya (Updated)
New satellite images point to the real possibility that Russia has now deployed major airpower to Libya. - RELATED
Mysterious MiG-29 Fighter Appears At Libyan Air Base Held By Russian-Backed Forces
The reported arrival of advanced combat jets comes after a major shift in the front lines of Libya's civil war and could point to an expanded air war. - RELATED
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Two Turkish Frigates Appear Off Libya Amid Reports Of Troops And Armor Landing Ashore
These developments point to a major escalation in Turkey's involvement in the conflict following abortive attempts to broker a ceasefire.
Posted for fair use
Close-Up Images Emerge Of Unmarked MiG-29 Fighters At Russia's Air Base In Syria
The configuration and paint schemes match up with imagery the American military has released of MiG-29s that then headed to Libya.
www.thedrive.com
jward
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Evan Kohlmann
@IntelTweet
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7m
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: 8 Syrian army soldiers and allied militiamen have been killed in new clashes with ISIS near Al-Thawrah oil field in southern Raqqa Province--and 11 ISIS fighters were subsequently killed in retaliatory Russian airstrikes.
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
Foreign powers in Libya risk ever bloodier stalemate
As Turkish drones helped drive eastern Libyan forces back from Tripoli this month, Russia was said to be reinforcing them with warplanes, raising the stakes in a stalemated civil war that has partitioned the country.
www.reuters.com
NEWS
MAY 29, 2020 / 8:56 AM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
Foreign powers in Libya risk ever bloodier stalemate
Angus McDowall, Orhan Coskun, Ulf Laessing
5 MIN READ
TUNIS/ANKARA/CAIRO (Reuters) - As Turkish drones helped drive eastern Libyan forces back from Tripoli this month, Russia was said to be reinforcing them with warplanes, raising the stakes in a stalemated civil war that has partitioned the country.
Recent weeks have marked a turning point in a complex conflict between two uneasy coalitions that are each backed by an array of foreign states whose competing regional agendas make them unwilling to countenance defeat.
Eastern commander Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) now face the likely failure of their year-long effort to capture Tripoli, seat of the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA).
Backed by the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Egypt with arms, mercenaries and air strikes, according to U.N. experts, Haftar had last summer advanced into Tripoli’s southern suburbs before his offensive stalled.
However, aid from Turkey helped turn the tide with air defences and drone strikes that neutralised LNA air power before hammering its ground troops and long supply lines this month.
“In the last few weeks, there has been a significant change in balance in Libya,” said a senior Turkish official, crediting Turkish drones and “untrained soldiers” operating LNA air defences.
It led, over the past month, to the LNA’s sudden loss of a string of towns near the Tunisian border, a crucial air base, a dozen of its own air defence systems and most of its foothold in Tripoli. With them went Haftar’s hopes of victory.
Over the same period, Russian military personnel have delivered some 14 MiG 29 and Su-24 fighter jets to the LNA’s Jufra air base in central Libya, the U.S. military said this week. They are aircraft that could again turn the tide of war.
A Russian member of parliament and the LNA have denied the aircraft arrived.
Libya is once more on the brink after years of chaos that followed the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, leading to rival administrations in Tripoli, in the west, and Benghazi in the east.
With more arms and fighters flowing to local proxies, Libyans fear an unending conflict in which outside powers keep fuelling warfare to protect their interests, while suffering little pain themselves.
One Western diplomat working on Libya warned of a “stagnating conflict in which escalation is met with escalation, increasingly violent and with no resolution or way out”.
France, which has also been broadly supportive of Haftar, warned this week that the situation in Libya risked replicating Syria’s descent into an endless war driven by outside forces.
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Russian and Turkish officials spoke last week and issued a statement agreeing on the need for a ceasefire, a possible sign they have hashed out a backroom deal to avert a direct confrontation after the arrival of the Russian jets.
“They put the gun on the table to signal to Turkey that there are limits to where its forces can advance towards the east,” said a second Western diplomat working on Libya.
FIGHTER JETS
The jets at Jufra could now act as a deterrent to a new offensive by the GNA once it has consolidated its gains in the west said Wolfram Lacher of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“It appears the purpose of these fighter jets and the redeployment to central and southern Libya now is to stabilise and freeze the military situation,” he said.
fter the arrival of the Russian jets.
“They put the gun on the table to signal to Turkey that there are limits to where its forces can advance towards the east,” said a second Western diplomat working on Libya.
FIGHTER JETS
The jets at Jufra could now act as a deterrent to a new offensive by the GNA once it has consolidated its gains in the west said Wolfram Lacher of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“It appears the purpose of these fighter jets and the redeployment to central and southern Libya now is to stabilise and freeze the military situation,” he said.
FILE PHOTO: Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar gets into a car after a meeting with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias at the Foreign Ministry in Athens, Greece, January 17, 2020. REUTERS/Costas Baltas/File Photo
With Haftar’s offensive collapsing, and with it his wider project of uniting Libya by force and replacing the GNA, his role as the lynchpin of the eastern bloc is also in question.
“So much of Haftar’s campaign and his narrative over many years has been built on success and momentum,” said one of the diplomats.
In late April as his war stuttered, Haftar suddenly declared that his military would seize power nationally, a move that would sideline the civilian administration in east Libya that had recognised him as head of the army there.
But he did not follow through by forming a new government - apparently because he could not mobilise enough support among his own coalition in the east or from foreign backers.
In Cairo, where the priority is stability in eastern Libya, diplomats said there was some impatience with his war in the west. However, “Haftar is still popular in the east,” said a former senior official.
“I don’t think his power structure is going to collapse overnight in the east,” Lacher said.
However, the repercussions of his failure to take Tripoli will be felt, Lacher added. “All of this makes a combustible mix that could produce challenges to Haftar’s authority eventually.”
Reporting By Angus McDowall in Tunis, Orhan Coskun in Ankara, Ulf Laessing in Cairo, Andrew Osborne in Moscow and Ghaida Ghantous in Dubai; Editing by Giles Elgood
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles