INTL Region In Focus: The Sahel, it's issues with terrorism, it's coups and it's future

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

France urges nationals to leave Mali temporarily amid jihadist fuel blockade​

Africa
France’s foreign ministry on Friday recommended that French nationals in Mali leave the country temporarily and "as soon as possible", citing the "worsening security situation" in the West African nation battling jihadist insurgents.
Issued on: 07/11/2025 - 15:56
1 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24


The French foreign ministry has urged all French nationals in Mali to temporarily leave the country, where a two-month-old fuel blockade by al Qaeda-linked militants has all but paralysed the capital Bamako.

In a travel advisory on Friday, the ministry recommended that French nationals leave Mali "as soon as possible" through commercial flights and not by land, warning that main roads have been targeted by "terrorist groups".

The ministry also reiterated its formal advice against travelling to the African country "regardless of the reason".

The al Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) has since September been targeting fuel tankers, particularly those coming from Senegal and Ivory Coast, through which the majority of Mali's imported goods transit.


France's announcement comes a day after the foreign ministry in Paris told a press briefing that insecurity in Mali showed the country’s decision to turn to Russia and Moscow-linked armed groups for security assistance had proven to be a failure.

"We are following the security situation in Mali with a great deal of attention and genuine concern," foreign ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux told reporters on Thursday.

"What I could add is that we can see that the contested presence of Russia, or forces associated with it in Mali, does not in any way ensure the security of Malian women and men."

Since back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021 that led to the end of France's military presence, Mali has been ruled by a military junta that is struggling to counter various armed groups including the JNIM.

Last week, the United States and Britain announced the evacuation of their "non-essential" personnel and their families because of the deteriorating situation.


The Geneva-based shipping group MSC on Friday said it was halting its operations in Mali, citing the fuel blockade and deteriorating security.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, Reuters)
 

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jward

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Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
3h

“WE’RE BEING EXTERMINATED”: NIGERIA’S CHRISTIANS BEG TRUMP FOR HELP AS VILLAGES BURN AND BODIES PILE UP

A leading human rights watchdog warns that Nigeria’s Christians are facing a slow-motion genocide, and could be wiped off the map by 2075 if nothing is done.

"Nigeria is under siege," says a leading activist, who warns that armed Islamist groups, and even the country’s own military, are carrying out a coordinated campaign of violence against Christians.

Over 150,000 Christians have been butchered in the last 16 years, 20,000 churches destroyed, and vast regions cleansed of believers, leaving behind ghost towns and charred sanctuaries.

Villagers are gunned down at night, their homes torched, their attackers never pursued, but survivors often arrested instead.

Trump has demanded action, threatening to cut aid and send in U.S. forces if the Nigerian government continues turning a blind eye.

Meanwhile, the West watches, and does nothing, as one of the world’s largest Christian populations is hunted, erased, and forgotten.

Source: Daily Mail
 

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Nigeria hit by second school abduction in less than a week​

Africa
Armed men attacked a Catholic school in Nigeria's north-central Niger state and abducted an unspecified number of schoolchildren, authorities said Friday, just days after 25 schoolgirls were kidnapped in neighbouring Kebbi state.
Issued on: 21/11/2025 - 10:34
1 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24

An unknown number of pupils have been abducted from a Catholic school in central Nigeria by armed gangs, police and a government official said Friday, in the second such incident in less than a week.


The school kidnappings and an attack on a church earlier this week, where worshippers are also believed to have been abducted, come weeks after US President Donald Trump threatened military action over what he described as the targeted killings of Nigeria's Christians, a narrative rejected by the Nigerian government.

"The Niger State government has received with deep sadness the disturbing news of the kidnapping of pupils from St. Mary's School in Agwara local government area," Abubakar Usman, the state government secretary, said in a statement.

"The exact number of abducted pupils is yet to be confirmed as security agencies continue to assess the situation".


The attack comes just days after gunmen stormed a public secondary school in Kebbi state in northwestern Nigeria, abducting 25 schoolgirls early Monday morning. One escaped and 24 are still missing.

Niger state police said its tactical units and the military have been deployed to search for the pupils.

Police received a report at about 2am (0100 GMT), that "some armed bandits invaded St. Mary's Private (Catholic) Secondary School ... and abducted a yet to be ascertained number of students from the school's hostel", the force said in a statement.

It said security agencies were "combing the forests with a view to rescue the abducted students".

Nigerian security forces have been placed on high alert this week as the country faces an uncomfortable spotlight on its security situation.

In a separate attack on a church in western Nigeria on Tuesday, gunmen killed two people during a service that was recorded and broadcast online. Dozens of worshippers are believed to have been abducted.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
 

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Macron in Africa in bid to turn the page on French setbacks in the Sahel​

Analysis
Africa
French President Emmanuel Macron began a five-day tour of Africa on Thursday in Mauritius before he heads to South Africa, Gabon and Angola. These four destinations reflect a reorientation of French diplomacy after the withdrawal of French forces from the Sahel.
Issued on: 20/11/2025 - 18:33
5 minReading time

By:
Grégoire SAUVAGE
Video by:
Charlotte HUGHES

French President Emmanuel Macron intends to make good on his pledge to reorient France’s approach to Africa through a five-day tour this week that will take him to Mauritius, the G20 summit in South Africa, Gabon and Angola.


The aim is to turn the page on French setbacks in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, after the military juntas in these countries severed defence agreements with Paris and forced the withdrawal of French troops in 2022 and 2023.

The withdrawals confirmed the decline of former colonial power France in Africa against a backdrop of rising anti-French sentiment and increased competition on the continent from Russia and China.

The French president’s trip aims to revitalise France's relationship with Africa, according to the Élysée Palace, and confirm a break from France's colonial legacy – something Macron had spoken about early in his first term.

“I am from a generation that doesn’t come to tell Africans what to do,” Macron, then 39, said during a speech to students in Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou in 2017.

“I will be alongside those who believe that Africa is neither a lost continent nor one that has been saved,” he said.

However, eight years later, the situation is grim. Macron has taken 40 trips, made visits to 26 African countries and attempted to make amends for France’s colonial past in Algeria, Senegal and Rwanda, but to little avail. The former “gendarme of Africa” has been driven out of the Sahel, from Mali to Chad. Accused of interfering in African countries’ affairs, France is facing profound popular disaffection.

FMM
© © Studio graphique FMM

A big economic focus​

Finding itself on the back foot, French diplomacy has shifted its focus to English- and Portuguese-speaking African countries – countries with no colonial history with Paris and whose dynamic domestic markets offer significant opportunities for French companies.

A key partner in this change of strategy is Nigeria, with its 220 million inhabitants, whose President Bola Tinubu was received by Macron in a grand state visit just one year ago. In 2024, Africa's most populous country became France's leading economic partner in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Élysée Palace points out that each stop on this African tour has a “strong economic component”. The first port of call is the Indian Ocean nation of Mauritius, one of the region’s richest countries in terms of per capita income with an economy that grew by 4.9 percent last year, according to the IMF.

Macron’s scheduled visit to Mauritius earlier this year was postponed due to Pope Francis’s funeral. With this first visit by a French president since François Mitterrand in 1993, Macron aims to strengthen a long-standing partnership that has become somewhat “strained” in recent years.

Beyond economic opportunities, France is also seeking to strengthen security cooperation between Mauritius and the French islands Mayotte and Réunion, located less than an hour away by plane – with Madagascar not far either.

"France has just suffered a setback in Madagascar, where President Andry Rajoelina, who was close to Emmanuel Macron, was deposed,” François Gaulme, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), told AFP.

Rajoelina fled the country in October after widespread protests that led to a military takeover. Gaulme said there was “a need to rebalance” French diplomacy in the region.

Read moreMadagascar’s pattern of popular revolts gets its Gen Z update

Win-win partnership​

Macron will then travel to South Africa for a more diplomatic leg of his trip, including a bilateral meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and the G20 summit on Saturday and Sunday in Johannesburg. In addition to his tête-à-tête with Ramaphosa, he will also attend the launch of a Franco-South African business council modelled on the one that already exists in Nigeria.

The Johannesburg summit, the first G20 meeting to be held on African soil, will be marked by the absence of US President Donald Trump, who accuses Pretoria of persecuting the Afrikaner minority, descended from the first European settlers.

While there will be no photo-ops with Trump, Macron could meet his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune. A few days after Algiers granted a pardon to Franco-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, a meeting between the two presidents could help to extend the thaw in relations between Paris and Algiers.

Macron will then head to Gabon to meet with President Brice Oligui Nguema, leader of the 2023 coup d'état that ousted then-president Ali Bongo, whose family had been in power for 55 years. Nguema was elected president in April this year following an election in which international observers reported no major irregularities.

After Nguema’s election, the African Union (AU) announced the lifting of sanctions against Gabon, which had been suspended from the AU in 2023 after the coup.

Macron will “welcome the completion” of the political transition and “support” the new authorities, according to the Élysée Palace. Macron is also expected to defend the “win-win” defence partnership between the two countries, which was renewed for two years by Nguema after he took power. At the heart of the arrangement is the Camp de Gaulle in Libreville, whose role today is focused on training Gabonese armed forces.

Since the French military base in Ivory Coast was returned to Ivorian control in mid-February and with the last French soldiers due to leave Senegal by the end of the year, Camp De Gaulle could be one of only two remaining French permanent military bases in Africa, along with the one in Djibouti.

AU-EU Summit​

French companies are hoping to participate in the diversification of Gabon's economy, particularly the mining sector, which is over-reliant on manganese and gold, though the country has rich deposits of iron, uranium, copper and zinc.

Another flagship project is the French Development Agency's involvement in the renovation of the Trans-Gabon Railway, which is crucial for the economy and passenger transport. It crosses five of the country's nine provinces but is in need of significant investment.

The French president will conclude his African tour on Monday in Angola, where a European Union-African Union summit will be held. The meeting aims to take stock of progress on the European "Global Gateway” strategy, launched in 2021, which includes €150 billion in funding for African infrastructure.


Among the priority projects is the railway designed to connect the Angolan port of Lobito to the mining region of Kolwezi in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The so-called Lobito Corridor is a way of asserting Europe's presence in Africa as a counterweight to China, one of Luanda's main economic partners, and securing the EU's access to critical minerals such as copper and cobalt, which are essential for the ecological transition.

This article has been translated from the original in French by David Howley.
 

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breitbart.com
U.S. Mulls Sanctions, Pentagon Move to Protect Persecuted Nigerian Christians


The U.S. is mulling a host of options such as sanctions and Pentagon engagement on counterterrorism as part of a plan to compel the Nigerian government to better protect its persecuted Christian communities.

Nigeria is under scrutiny from U.S. President Donald Trump, who in early November threatened military action over the treatment of Christians in the West African nation, as Breitbart News reported.

The United Nations is just one platform that has been used by the Trump administration to call the world to notice Christians being ruthlessly slaughtered in Nigeria.

Trinidadian-US rapper Nicki Minaj speaks during the panel discussion “Combatting Religious Violence and the Killing of Christians in Nigeria” at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in New York City, on November 18, 2025. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)

Reuters reports Jonathan Pratt, the senior official leading the State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, told the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday the time has come for less talk and more action:

The Trump administration is developing a plan to incentivize and compel the Nigerian government to better protect Christian communities and improve religious freedom.

This plan will consider U.S. State and Treasury engagement on sanctions, as well as possible Department of War engagement on counterterrorism, and other efforts to protect religious communities.

He added Washington was primarily looking at security provided to the Nigerian government and how it is deploying assets, as well as the sharing of information and intelligence.

The Reuters report notes, in October, Trump added Nigeria back to a “Countries of Particular Concern” list of nations that the U.S. says have violated religious freedom.

Trump also directed the U.S. Defense Department to prepare for possible “fast” military action in Nigeria if the West African nation fails to crack down on the killing of Christians.

The Pentagon’s latest show of support for persecuted Christians came on the same day multiple news agencies reported dozens of pupils have been abducted by armed men from a Catholic school in the center of the country.

The latest attack targeted St Mary’s School in Papiri, Niger state, where authorities had already ordered the temporary closure of all boarding schools due to rising security threats by attackers that mirror past jihadist attacks in the increasingly lawless country.

Local media broadcaster Arise TV said 52 schoolchildren were abducted.

Christians are the single most persecuted religious group around the world with more than 310 million followers of Christ being subjected to extreme levels of persecution, the United Nations reported back in March.

In a host of countries the U.N. details Christians are arbitrarily arrested, attacked, assaulted, and killed because of their faith.

Anti-Christian bias has been rightly called “the last acceptable prejudice,” one that few condemn or even recognize.

“No one much cares about offending Christians,” wrote the coalition of African-American pastors in a 2019 essay. “In fact, mocking, belittling, and blaspheming Christianity is becoming a bit of a trend in our culture. Anti-Christian bigotry truly is the last acceptable prejudice.”

“The hypocrisy on display is astounding,” the pastors continued. “Christianity is the dominant religion of our country. It is the foundation of our government and morality. And yet, Christians are treated as fair game for mockery and insult.”
Follow Simon Kent on Twitter: or e-mail to: skent@breitbart.com


Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
3h

“WE’RE BEING EXTERMINATED”: NIGERIA’S CHRISTIANS BEG TRUMP FOR HELP AS VILLAGES BURN AND BODIES PILE UP

A leading human rights watchdog warns that Nigeria’s Christians are facing a slow-motion genocide, and could be wiped off the map by 2075 if nothing is done.

"Nigeria is under siege," says a leading activist, who warns that armed Islamist groups, and even the country’s own military, are carrying out a coordinated campaign of violence against Christians.

Over 150,000 Christians have been butchered in the last 16 years, 20,000 churches destroyed, and vast regions cleansed of believers, leaving behind ghost towns and charred sanctuaries.

Villagers are gunned down at night, their homes torched, their attackers never pursued, but survivors often arrested instead.

Trump has demanded action, threatening to cut aid and send in U.S. forces if the Nigerian government continues turning a blind eye.

Meanwhile, the West watches, and does nothing, as one of the world’s largest Christian populations is hunted, erased, and forgotten.

Source: Daily Mail

Nigeria hit by second school abduction in less than a week​

Africa
Armed men attacked a Catholic school in Nigeria's north-central Niger state and abducted an unspecified number of schoolchildren, authorities said Friday, just days after 25 schoolgirls were kidnapped in neighbouring Kebbi state.
Issued on: 21/11/2025 - 10:34
1 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24

An unknown number of pupils have been abducted from a Catholic school in central Nigeria by armed gangs, police and a government official said Friday, in the second such incident in less than a week.


The school kidnappings and an attack on a church earlier this week, where worshippers are also believed to have been abducted, come weeks after US President Donald Trump threatened military action over what he described as the targeted killings of Nigeria's Christians, a narrative rejected by the Nigerian government.

"The Niger State government has received with deep sadness the disturbing news of the kidnapping of pupils from St. Mary's School in Agwara local government area," Abubakar Usman, the state government secretary, said in a statement.

"The exact number of abducted pupils is yet to be confirmed as security agencies continue to assess the situation".


The attack comes just days after gunmen stormed a public secondary school in Kebbi state in northwestern Nigeria, abducting 25 schoolgirls early Monday morning. One escaped and 24 are still missing.

Niger state police said its tactical units and the military have been deployed to search for the pupils.

Police received a report at about 2am (0100 GMT), that "some armed bandits invaded St. Mary's Private (Catholic) Secondary School ... and abducted a yet to be ascertained number of students from the school's hostel", the force said in a statement.

It said security agencies were "combing the forests with a view to rescue the abducted students".

Nigerian security forces have been placed on high alert this week as the country faces an uncomfortable spotlight on its security situation.

In a separate attack on a church in western Nigeria on Tuesday, gunmen killed two people during a service that was recorded and broadcast online. Dozens of worshippers are believed to have been abducted.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
 

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Sudan’s top general rejects US-led ceasefire proposal, calling it ‘the worst yet’​


By SAMY MAGDY
Updated 2:56 PM EST, November 24, 2025
Leer en español

CAIRO (AP) — Sudan’s top general rejected a ceasefire proposal provided by U.S.-led mediators in a blow to efforts to stop a devastating war that has gripped the African country for over 30 months.

In video comments released by the military late Sunday, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan said the proposal was unacceptable and “the worst yet,” accusing the mediators of being “biased” in their efforts to end the war.

Sudan plunged into chaos in April 2023 when a power struggle between the military and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces exploded into open fighting in the capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere in the country.

The devastating war has killed more than 40,000 people, according to U.N. figures, but aid groups say that is an undercount and the true number could be many times higher. It created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis with over 14 million people forced to flee their homes, fueled disease outbreaks and pushed parts of the country into famine.

The mediators, known as the Quad, have been trying for over two years to bring an end to the fighting and reestablish a path to democratic transition which was hampered by a military coup in 2021. They are comprised of the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

This month, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he plans to put greater attention on helping find an end to Sudan’s war after being urged to take action by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to the White House.


On Monday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire and for both the military and the RSF to negotiate a settlement.

Writing on social platform X, he also called for a “safe & unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid,” as well as an end to arms and fighters transfer to Sudan.

“We need peace in Sudan,” Guterres said.

Massad Boulos, a U.S. adviser for African affairs, told The Associated Press earlier this month that the latest proposal calls for a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a nine-month political process.

The RSF said it has agreed to the truce, following global outrage over the paramilitaries’ atrocities in the Darfur city of el-Fasher. In a video speech late Monday, the paramilitary commander Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo reiterated the group’s commitment to a three-month humanitarian truce and called for mediators to pressure the military to accept the proposal.

Burhan, Sudan’s top general, said however that the proposal “is considered the worst document yet,” since it “eliminates the Armed Forces, dissolves security agencies and keeps the militia where they are” — referring to the RSF.

“If the mediation continues in this direction, we will consider it to be biased mediation,” he said.

He lashed out at the U.S. adviser and accused him of attempting to “impose some conditions on us.”

“We fear that Massad Boulos will be an obstacle to the peace that all the people of Sudan seek,” Burhan said, without given further details about the plan.

In his comments, Burhan also took aim at the UAE. He said that since the Quad includes the Gulf country as a member, the mediation group was “not innocent of responsibility, especially since the entire world has witnessed the UAE’s support for the rebels against the Sudanese State.”

In a statement Monday, the UAE’s Foreign Ministry said Burhan, through his rejection of the ceasefire proposal, showed “obstructive behavior,” which it said “must be called out.”

The UAE is widely accused by rights groups of arming the paramilitaries. The AP reported earlier this month that U.S. intelligence assessments for many months have found that the Emirates, a close U.S. ally, has been sending weapons to the RSF, according to a U.S. official familiar with the classified reports who spoke on condition of anonymity to share details.

The UAE denies backing the paramilitaries.

Burhan denied that the military is controlled by Islamists or that it used chemical weapons in its fighting against the RSF — an accusation leveled by the Trump administration in May.

Burhan said the military will only agree to a truce when the RSF completely withdraws from civilian areas to allow the return of displaced people to their homes, before embarking on talks for a political settlement to the conflict.

“We’re not warmongers, and we don’t reject peace,” he said, “but no one can threaten us or dictate terms to us.”

___

Lee Keath in Cairo contributed to this report.
 

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Sudan's RSF paramilitary announces unilateral three-month humanitarian ceasefire​

Africa
Sudan's paramilitary group announced on Monday that it was declaring a unilateral three-month humanitarian ceasefire, a day after its rival the regular army rejected an international ceasefire proposal.
Issued on: 24/11/2025 - 20:03
2 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24

The head of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces said late on Monday that his paramilitaries would immediately enter into a three-month humanitarian truce, after US President Donald Trump said last week that he would intervene to seek an end to a war that has plunged the country into famine.


The United States, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia – known as the Quad – earlier this month proposed a plan for a three-month truce followed by peace talks. The RSF responded by saying it had accepted the plan, but soon after attacked army territory with a barrage of drone strikes.

Monday's statement appeared to announce a unilateral ceasefire. It came a day after Sudan's army chief rejected the Quad's proposals, and criticized the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates, which has been widely accused of arming the RSF, as a mediator.

The Gulf state has denied such accusations and said it aims to stop the war.

"In response to international efforts, chiefly that of His Excellency US President Donald Trump ... I announce a humanitarian ceasefire including a cessation of hostilities for three months," General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF said in a speech on Monday.

"We hope the Quad countries will play their role in pushing the other side to engage with this step," he added.

His comments come at a time when the RSF has come under fire for brutal attacks on civilians in the aftermath of its takeover of the city of al-Fashir in late October. That takeover cemented its control of the Darfur region, and the force has subsequently stepped up attacks on the Kordofan region in a bid to take control of the country.

Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in his speech on Sunday accused the US proposal of aiming to weaken the Sudanese army while allowing the RSF to maintain the territory it has seized.

"No one in Sudan will accept the presence of these rebels or for them to be part of any solution in the future," Burhan said. He also denied what he said were US accusations of Islamist influence in his government.

"In his rejection of the US Peace Plan for Sudan, and his repeated refusal to accept a ceasefire, he demonstrates consistently obstructive behavior," Reem bint Ebrahim Al Hashimy, UAE's minister of state for international cooperation, said in a statement on Monday.

The war in Sudan, which broke out in April 2023 over disagreements on integrating the two groups, in addition to plunging Sudan into famine, has killed tens of thousands of civilians, particularly in ethnically-based bloodshed.


The RSF has been accused of genocide, and both Dagalo and Burhan have been sanctioned by the United States.

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)
 

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Guinea-Bissau marks another coup in Africa. Here is a look at other military takeovers​

By OPE ADETAYO
Updated 10:38 AM EST, November 27, 2025

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Guinea-Bissau has joined a growing list of African countries where military officers have seized power since 2020.

A few hours after gunshots were heard near the presidential office on Wednesday, a group of military officers appeared on state television saying they had seized power. The deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, has been embroiled in fierce political battle with the opposition. Both sides claimed victory in a presidential election. Embaló was arrested and detained after the coup was announced.

The small West African nation of 2.2 million on the Atlantic coast follows a pattern seen across the continent, with disputed elections, constitutional upheaval, youth discontent and military takeovers.

Here is a timeline of coups in Africa and the prospects of a return to democratic rule:

Mali, August 2020 and May 2021​

Since August 2020, Mali has witnessed two back-to-back coups. A group of soldiers mutinied and arrested senior military officers just outside the capital Bamako, after weeks of protests by civilians demanding the then-president, Ibrahim Keïta, resign over accusations of corruption and failing to clamp down on armed groups.

Col. Assimi Goita, the military leader, entered into a power-sharing deal with Bah Ndaw, a civilian president, with Goita serving as the vice president of a so-called transitional government. In 2021, Goita overthrew Ndaw following a series of disagreements and installed himself as president. He postponed an election slated for 2022 to 2077.

Mali is one of a tripartite group of landlocked West African countries, including Burkina Faso and Niger, run by military juntas that have now formed their own bloc after breaking from the Economic Community of West African states, and have firmly stated their objections to a return to democracy.

Chad, April 2021​

Following his father’s death in 2021, Mahamat Idris Deby, an army general, quickly seized power, extending his family’s three-decade rule of the central African nation.

Three years later, he delivered an election that he promised when he assumed power. Deby was declared the winner of the election, which the opposition claimed was rigged. He has since clamped down on critics. Former Prime Minister Succes Masra, an opposition figure, was sentenced to 20 years in prison earlier this year.

Guinea, September 2021​

After 11 years in office, Alpha Conde was removed by a group of soldiers led by Mamady Doumbouya. In 2020, Conde had changed the constitution to allow himself to stand for a third term.

Doumbouya is running in the December polls and looks to shed his military fatigues, after a referendum this year allowed junta members to stand in elections and extended the presidential term limit from five to seven years.

Sudan, October 2021​

The Sudanese military, led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, staged a coup in October 2021, deposing Omar al-Bashir, who ruled the country for 26 years.

Burhan went on to share power with Muhammad Dangalo, known as Hedmeti, the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

In April 2023, a simmering feud between them led to one of the world’s most catastrophic conflicts, according to the United Nations.

Burkina Faso, January and September 2022​

Like its neighbor Mali, Burkina Faso also witnessed two successive coups. In January 2022, Roch Kaboré was ousted by Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba. In September, Cap. Ibrahim Traoré, the head of an artillery unit of the Burkina Faso’s army, ousted Damiba on the same pretext as the earlier coup — deteriorating security.

Traoré had since ruled the country. In July, he dissolved the independent electoral commission.

Niger, July 2023​

Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani ousted Mohamed Bazoum, ending a rare democratic transition in Niger. The dramatic coup sparked a crisis in the regional ECOWAS bloc, which threatened to invade Niger if Bazoum was not installed and the country returned to democracy. The crisis split the region, with Niger teaming with Burkina Faso and Mali to form a breakaway Alliance of Sahel States.

Gabon, August 2023​

Shortly after President Ali Bongo, who had been in power for 14 years and had run for a third term, was declared the winner of another election in 2023, a group of soldiers appeared on television saying they were seizing power. They canceled the election and dissolved all state institutions.

Brice Oligui Nguema, a cousin of Bongo, took power and has since ruled Gabon. He was announced the winner of a presidential election in April.

Madagascar, October 2025​


Expressing their frustration over chronic water shortage and power outages, young people in Madagascar took to the streets to demand former President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation. Rajoelina instead dissolved his government and refused to resign, leading to a military takeover of the southern African country.

Guinea-Bissau, November 2025​

The West African nation has a history of coups. Embaló was seeking to be the first president to win a second term when the military seized power.

(Map at the link)​

 

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Ousted Guinea-Bissau President Embalo arrives in Senegal amid regional tensions​

Africa
Ousted Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo arrived in Senegal on Thursday on a special flight after West Africa’s ECOWAS chair intervened to secure his transfer, Senegal’s foreign ministry said.
Issued on: 27/11/2025 - 22:16Modified: 27/11/2025 - 22:51
3 minReading time

By:
FRANCE 24
This file photo shows Guninea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo in Abuja, Nigeria, on December 15, 2024.
This file photo shows Guninea Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo posing for a photo in Abuja, Nigeria, on December 15, 2024. © Olamikan Gbemiga, AP

Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has left the country for Senegal after being detained during a military coup, the government in Dakar said Thursday, as a lead opponent accused him of arranging the uprising.


The military in volatile Guinea-Bissau earlier appointed a general as the country's new leader, a day after seizing power and derailing the announcement of election results.

Opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa told AFP he believed he had won Sunday's election and alleged Embalo – who has also claimed victory – had "organised" the power grab to prevent him taking office.

Sandwiched between Guinea and Senegal, Guinea-Bissau has experienced four coups since independence from Portugal in 1974, as well as multiple attempted coups. Its election results are often contested.

Embalo arrived in Senegal on a military plane chartered by its government, the country's foreign ministry said in a statement.

The coup unfolded a day before authorities were due to announce the provisional results of the presidential ballot and parliamentary polls.

General Horta N'Tam, chief of staff of the army, was designated the new leader for a period of one year.

"I have just been sworn in to lead the High Command," he declared, taking the oath of office at the military's headquarters on Thursday.

Opposition candidate escapes​

N'Tam is considered to have been close in recent years to Embalo.

Dias, who said he was safe and in hiding, was Embalo's main challenger after leading opposition candidate Domingos Simoes Pereira was barred by the supreme court from standing.

"I am the president (elect) of Guinea-Bissau," Dias told AFP by telephone, adding that he thought he might have garnered around 52 percent of the vote.

"There wasn't a coup," he alleged. It was "organised by Mr Embalo".

Dias said he had escaped from his campaign HQ on Wednesday when armed men came to arrest him.

Pereira, who backed Dias after his exclusion from the race, was himself arrested on Wednesday.

The military has appointed General Tomas Djassi, formerly the personal chief of staff to Embalo, as chief of staff of the armed forces.

'Necessary measures'​

Bissau, the capital of the west African country, was at a standstill on Thursday, AFP journalists saw.

Most shops and markets were closed and soldiers patrolled the streets.

The new military leaders banned "all media programming" and outlawed protests.

Surrounded by heavily armed soldiers, N'Tam told a press conference on Thursday the military had acted "to block operations that aimed to threaten our democracy".

He said evidence had been "sufficient to justify the operation", adding that "necessary measures are urgent and important and require everyone's participation".

General Denis N'Canha, head of the presidential military office, told journalists the army was assuming control "until further notice" after a plan involving "drug lords" had been uncovered, including "the introduction of weapons into the country to alter the constitutional order".

Land, air and sea borders – which were all sealed off on Wednesday – were reportedly reopened, however.

A nationwide curfew was lifted and the High Command ordered the "immediate reopening" of markets, schools and private institutions.

'Can't go on'​

Members of Guinea-Bissau's diaspora and researchers told AFP they queried the true motives behind the power grab, which they alleged could ultimately benefit Embalo.

Researchers interviewed by AFP said unverified preliminary results circulating before the coup showed opposition candidate Dias as the election winner.

"This is a coup aimed at preventing the opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, from seizing power," one west African researcher told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"This is the ideal scenario for Mr Embalo, who could, following negotiations, be released and potentially reposition himself for the next elections."

West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, has suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies until constitutional order is restored, it said after a virtual meeting of heads of state and government.

The African Union has condemned the coup, while the European Union urged "a swift return to the constitutional order and the resumption of the electoral process".


"Every time we feel hopeful about the country, a crisis occurs," said Mamadou Woury Diallo, a soap seller struggling to earn his living at a market in Bissau. "This can't go on."

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
 

Plain Jane

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African Union suspends Guinea-Bissau after coup and former president flees to Republic of Congo​


By WILSON MCMAKIN and ASSANA SAMBU
Updated 2:42 PM EST, November 29, 2025
Leer en español

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — The African Union suspended Guinea-Bissau following a military coup, saying it won’t tolerate unconstitutional changes.

In a resolution adopted by the AU Peace and Security Council on Friday, the organization reiterated it has “zero tolerance on unconstitutional changes of government.” It moved to “immediately suspend the Republic of Guinea-Bissau from participating in all activities of the Union, its organs and institutions, until constitutional order is restored in the country.”

Speaking to The Associated Press on Saturday evening, former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s chief of staff said the ousted leader traveled to the Republic of the Congo overnight and arrived Saturday morning.

“Yes, the president is already in Brazzaville. We left Dakar last night and arrived in Congo-Brazzaville this morning,” Califa Soares Cassamá, the former president’s chief of staff, confirmed to AP.

Embaló had previously arrived in neighboring Senegal on Thursday on a flight chartered by the Senegalese government.

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest countries, has been dogged by coups and attempted coups since its independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago, including a coup attempt in October. The country of 2.2 million people is known as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a trend that experts say has fueled its political crises.
On Saturday, the president of the Transitional Republic, Gen. Horta Inta-a, appointed a new 28-member government, most of whom are allies of the ousted president.

The West African regional bloc known as ECOWAS on Thursday suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies until the constitutional order is restored.

The military takeover Wednesday came after presidential and legislative elections on Sunday. Incumbent President Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias each claimed victory.


Following the coup, the military high command in the West African nation inaugurated former army chief of staff Inta-a, as the head of the military government, which will oversee a one-year transition period, according to a declaration broadcast on state television.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Guinea-Bissau’s latest coup sparks allegations of a staged takeover. Here’s what to know​



By MARK BANCHEREAU
Updated 12:42 PM EST, December 1, 2025

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — In West Africa’s latest military takeover, soldiers in Guinea-Bissau followed up a disputed presidential election by seizing power last week in what some critics allege was a staged coup to avoid having the incumbent lose.

Here’s what to know about the Nov. 26 coup in Guinea-Bissau:

Takeover announced after a contested vote​

Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and the main opposition candidate, Fernando Dias, both claimed to have won the Nov. 23 presidential election.

Three days after the vote, military officers appeared on state television to announce they had seized power and suspended the election after discovering what they said was a conspiracy to manipulate the results. Embaló told media outlets he had been deposed and arrested.

Soldiers said the conspiracy had involved “some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord, and domestic and foreign nationals.” Guinea-Bissau is known as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a trend that experts say has fueled its political crises.

Soldiers said the conspiracy had involved “some national politicians with the participation of a well-known drug lord, and domestic and foreign nationals.” Guinea-Bissau is known as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a trend that experts say has fueled its political crises.


A day after the announcement, soldiers installed Gen. Horta Inta-a as the head of a one-year transitional government.

Meanwhile, Embaló arrived in neighboring Senegal on a flight chartered by the Senegalese government, before leaving again over the weekend for the Republic of Congo, where he is currently staying.

Allegations of a sham coup​

Foreign dignitaries and Guinea-Bissau’s opposition have claimed that Embaló and his supporters in the military staged the coup because he was headed for a possible defeat in the presidential election.

The military takeover and the reported arrest of Embaló were manufactured to disrupt the election results, presidential candidate Fernando Dias alleged.

Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who was heading an electoral observer mission during the military takeover, agreed, accusing Embaló of staging a “ceremonial coup” to stay in power.

“A military doesn’t take over governments and allow the sitting president that they overthrew to address press conferences and announce that he has been arrested,” Jonathan told reporters.

Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko echoed the accusation, describing the military takeover in Guinea-Bissau as a “scheme.”

Guinea-Bissau’s coup differs from others in the region​

West Africa has seen a wave of coups since 2020, typically with the stated purpose of better protecting the country against insurgencies or fixing bad governance.

Military leaders in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso took power by force on pledges of providing more security to citizens against extremist armed groups. In neighboring Guinea, Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya overthrew the president in 2021 on a promise to rid the country of corruption.

The military takeover in Guinea-Bissau doesn’t fit the mold because it looks more like an attempt to maintain the status quo than overturn it, analyst Beverly Ochieng at Control Risks told The Associated Press in an interview.

“It was carried out by people who are Embaló’s close allies in the military,” Ochieng said, adding that one of the generals who led the coup, Dinis N’Tchama, was a personal military advisor of the president. “The sentiment coming out from the opposition and civil societies is that it was staged because Embalo was losing his grip on power.”

Embaló, who has been in power since 2020, already was facing a legitimacy crisis ahead of the election in a dispute with the political opposition, which had argued that his tenure had expired early this year.

Embaló’s treatment during the coup, including his ability to address the press and his subsequent permission to leave the country, has contrasted with the fate of other ousted leaders, notably Niger’s Mohamed Bazoum, who has remained in military custody for two years.

A country plagued by coups​

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest countries, previously has had four coups and several attempted ones since its independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago.

The first successful coup came in 1980, when President Luis Cabral was ousted by Prime Minister Joao Bernardo Vieira, who had accused Cabral’s government of mismanagement. Vieira himself was deposed in 1999 after a military revolt sparked by a mutiny over arms-smuggling allegations.

In 2003, President Kumba Yala was deposed in a bloodless coup led by one of his own generals, who accused him of mismanaging the economy. In 2012, soldiers seized control between rounds of a presidential election, halting a vote that was expected to return the ruling party to power.

“Guinea-Bissau’s long history of political coups is largely linked to the fact that it has had weak institutions since independence from the Portuguese,” Ochieng said.

Courts in the country of 2.2 million people have often been unable to rule on electoral disputes or constrain government overreach, creating a vacuum for military intervention.

Meanwhile, the opposition-dominated parliament has not convened since Dec. 2023, when it was dissolved by Embaló after an attempted coup.

Weak local institutions have also allowed drug trafficking to influence the country’s politics. Last year, a son of former President Malam Bacai Sanha was sentenced to more than six years in prison by a U.S. court for leading an international heroin trafficking ring.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
This situation is getting crazier by the hour!

Guinea-Bissau electoral commission unable to finalize results after armed men steal vote tally​

By ASSANA SAMBU
Updated 8:58 AM EST, December 2, 2025

BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau (AP) — Guinea-Bissau’s electoral commission said Tuesday that it’s unable to finalize results of a disputed presidential vote after armed men broke into its office and stole vote tally sheets the same day the military seized power.
The announcement did not identify the armed men.

It said the break-in happened on Nov. 26, three days after presidential and legislative elections in which incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa each claimed victory.

The military then seized power and installed former army chief of staff Gen. Horta Inta-a as the head of the military government, which will oversee a one-year transition period. On Saturday, Inta-a appointed a new 28-member government, most of whom are allies of the ousted president.

Embalo has since fled to the Republic of Congo’s capital Brazzaville. Meanwhile, Nigeria said its President Bola Tinubu has granted protection for da Costa in response to an ”imminent threat to his life.”

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest countries, has been dogged by coups and attempted coups since its independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago, including a coup attempt in October. The country of 2.2 million people is known as a hub for drug trafficking between Latin America and Europe, a trend that experts say has fueled its political crises.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Merde..........

Posted for fair use......

  1. exclusive
  2. Africa

U.A.E.’s Ransom Payment for Kidnapped Prince Bolsters al Qaeda in Mali​

Jihadists receive millions of dollars as they blockade the country’s capital and security across the region deteriorates​


By Benoit Faucon
Dec. 5, 2025 12:00 pm ET
43 Comments

One of the U.S.’s closest allies in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates, paid more than $20 million to secure the freedom of an Emirati prince kidnapped by al Qaeda’s West African affiliate, according to Western officials.

The ransom package also included the release of dozens of Islamist extremists imprisoned in Mali, where the prince was abducted in September and where al Qaeda-backed militants are threatening to seize control of the entire nation.

The infusion of money and muscle into al Qaeda’s powerful West African branch, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, comes as the militants are besieging Mali’s capital, Bamako. Should they succeed in ousting the government, Mali—home to 25 million people in an area almost twice the size of Texas—would become the first country in the world governed by adherents of the terror group that blew up American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, brought down the Twin Towers and drew the U.S. into a 20-year war in Afghanistan.

Spokespeople for the U.A.E., Mali and the U.S. State Department didn’t return requests for comment.

The ransom payment spotlights the ambiguous diplomatic role played by the U.A.E., a longtime U.S. partner in the Arab world and one that doesn’t hesitate to spurn American interests when they clash with its own.

The Emirates have clinched a peace deal with Israel—a cornerstone of American policy—and hosted U.S. warplanes at a base in Abu Dhabi.

But they have also drawn rebukes in the U.S. for shipping weapons to a Sudanese rebel group, the Rapid Support Forces, that Washington has accused of genocide for its slaughter of men, women and children in Darfur. Emirati officials deny arming the rebels. United Nations investigators concluded the allegations were credible, citing witness accounts of arms shipments being flown to Chad and transferred across the border to the rebels in Sudan.

Now the Emiratis have refilled the war chest of one of the most aggressive and successful al Qaeda franchises in the world, just as the militants are making quick progress on the battlefield and have interrupted fuel supplies to residents of Bamako.

“The staggering ransom paid by Abu Dhabi…to JNIM comes at the worst possible time,” said Justyna Gudzowska, executive director of The Sentry, a human-rights watchdog group. “Such a large injection of resources is a huge boon for the group and will enable its extremist ambitions on the continent.”

Sheikh Ahmed bin Maktoum bin Juma al-Maktoum, a 78-year-old member of Dubai’s ruling family, was seized during an al Qaeda raid on his farm south of Bamako, according to Western officials and Malian community leaders. Footage posted by JNIM shows the militants attacking the hangar where al-Maktoum keeps private aircraft and hang gliders.

An Iranian and another Emirati were abducted at the same time.

Emirati businesses have a strong presence in Mali, the world’s fourth-largest gold producer, which exports most of its output to Dubai. Al-Maktoum himself is involved in the precious-metals trade out of Mali, the Western officials said.

After the kidnapping, emissaries representing Dubai’s ruling family met Malian officials and intermediaries at a Bamako Radisson, the officials said. The go-betweens included Tuareg leader Ahmed ag Bibi, who once fought in an Islamist militant group under Iyad ag Ghali, a former rock ‘n’ roller who now leads JNIM.

Al-Maktoum and his two associates were released in late October for the equivalent of at least $23 million in cash taken from Emirati vaults and flown to Mali, the officials said. A Gulfstream private jet then arrived in the Malian capital and delivered him to Dubai, they said.

The broad agreement negotiated for Al-Maktoum’s freedom also included the release of Malian hostages held by JNIM, they said.

Al-Maktoum couldn’t be reached for comment.

The insurgency in the Sahel, the semidesert stretching across Africa just south of the Sahara, has left tens of thousands dead since it began in Mali in 2012. The violence has led to military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, and the breakup of a French-led, U.S.-supported coalition to combat the extremists. Mali brought in Russian mercenaries to try to defeat the militants, to minimal effect.

The militants are spreading south into Atlantic coastal states—Benin, Ivory Coast and Togo—where the group previously had little presence. JNIM in October claimed its first action in Nigeria. The group said its fighters had killed a soldier when they temporarily seized a Nigerian military outpost near the Benin border. The Nigerian government hasn’t confirmed the reports.

Also in October, unknown gunmen abducted an American missionary pilot in Niger’s capital, Niamey, an area previously considered secure.

The hostage, Kevin Rideout, has since been transferred to Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, another jihadist faction, according to the Western officials. The U.S. has evacuated some personnel from embassies in Mali and Niger and warned Americans against travel there.

Mali, however, is closest to falling into the militants’ control. The JNIM commander overseeing the blockade of Bamako is the same man who ordered the kidnappings and now stands to be the main beneficiary of the Emirati payments, they said.

Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com
Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the December 6, 2025, print edition as 'Ransom for Prince Boosts al Qaeda'.
 

Plain Jane

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Burkina Faso plans to restore death penalty for treason, terrorism, espionage​

Aerial view of Djibo town, Burkina Faso, Feb. 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick, File)

Aerial view of Djibo town, Burkina Faso, Feb. 18, 2021. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick, File)
By WILSON MCMAKIN
Updated 11:43 AM EST, December 5, 2025

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Burkina Faso’s Council of Ministers has adopted a bill to restore the death penalty, targeting offenses such as treason, terrorism and espionage, authorities said.

“The adoption of this bill is part of reforms ... to have a justice that responds to the deep aspirations of our people,” Minister of Justice Edasso Rodrigue Bayala said in a Facebook post late Thursday.

The death penalty was abolished in the country in 2018.

The bill has to be adopted by parliament and reviewed by the courts before becoming law.

Marceau Sivieude, Amnesty International’s Regional Director for West and Central Africa, called the move a “serious setback for human rights in Burkina Faso,” and alarming “in the context of the ongoing crackdown on political opponents, human rights activists and journalists in Burkina Faso.”

Since taking power in a 2022 coup, the West African country’s military leaders have launched sweeping reforms, including postponing elections that were expected to restore civilian rule and dissolving the country’s independent electoral commission.

Burkina Faso has increasingly silenced critical media outlets in recent years. It suspended the BBC and Voice of America radio stations for their coverage of a mass killing of civilians carried out by the country’s armed forces as well as arrested three prominent journalists earlier this year.

The country is one of several West African nations where the military has taken over in recent years, capitalizing on widespread discontent with previous democratically elected governments over security issues. The military government has been accused of human rights abuses and the detention of journalists critical of the government.

The landlocked nation of 23 million people is among countries struggling with a security crisis in the arid Sahel region south of the Sahara in recent years. It has been shaken by violence from extremist groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger launch $895m regional investment bank​


Adekunle Agbetiloye
13 December 2025 07:34 PM


The military-led governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have launched a regional investment bank capitalised at 500 billion CFA francs ($895 million) to finance infrastructure, energy and agricultural projects.
Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger launch $895m regional investment bank

Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger launch $895m regional investment bank

  • Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger established a regional investment bank with 500 billion CFA francs in capital.
  • The bank aims to fund infrastructure, energy, and agricultural projects using resources from these nations.
  • Finance ministers highlight the initiative as crucial for economic development and strategic financing.
  • Approximately 5% of tax revenues from each country will support the bank, reducing dependency on foreign donors.
The military-led governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have launched a regional investment bank capitalised at 500 billion CFA francs ($895 million) to finance infrastructure, energy and agricultural projects.

The bank will pool resources from the three mineral-rich Sahel nations, according to Bloomberg. Mali and Burkina Faso are among Africa’s leading gold producers, while Niger holds significant uranium reserves.

“Creating a development bank is a matter of financial stability, economic development and financing strategic projects,” Burkina Faso’s Finance Minister Aboubakar Nacanabo said after a signing ceremony in Bamako, Mali’s capital.

Taxes to capitalise the lender​

Business Insider Africa reported in July that the three countries planned to introduce new taxes to fund the lender. Each nation is expected to contribute about 5% of tax revenues to capitalise the bank, Serge Balima, an adviser to Burkina Faso’s junta leader Ibrahim Traoré, said at the time.

The move is part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on foreign donors and assert greater control over their development agendas.

The three countries, which have withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), are grappling with mounting challenges, including political instability and climate pressures.

They have accused the bloc of failing to support their fight against a widening Islamist insurgency.

Mali’s Finance Minister Alousséni Sanou said the bank is now officially operational following the commitment of its initial capital. The next step, he added, will be the appointment of its leadership, tasked with mobilising additional funding across the region.
 

Plain Jane

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Sudan’s prime minister takes his peace plan to the UN, but US urges humanitarian truce now​


By EDITH M. LEDERER
Updated 10:27 PM EST, December 22, 2025

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Sudan’s prime minister on Monday proposed a wide-ranging peace initiative to end a nearly 1,000-day war with a rival paramilitary force, but the United States urged both sides to accept the Trump administration’s call for an immediate humanitarian truce.

Kamil Idris, who heads Sudan’s transitional civilian government, told the Security Council his plan calls for a ceasefire monitored by the United Nations, African Union and Arab League, and the withdrawal of paramilitary forces from all areas they occupy, their placement in supervised camps and their disarmament.

Sudan plunged into chaos in April 2023 when a power struggle between the military and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces exploded into open fighting, with widespread mass killings and rapes, and ethnically motivated violence. This has amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity, according to the U.N. and international rights groups.

It seemed highly unlikely the RSF would support the prime minister’s proposal, which would essentially give government forces a victory and take away their military power.

In an indirect reference to the truce supported by the U.S. and key mediators Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, known as the Quad, Idris stressed to the U.N. Security Council that the government’s proposal is “homemade -- not imposed on us.”


In early November, the Rapid Support Forces agreed to a humanitarian truce. At that time, a Sudanese military official told The Associated Press the army welcomed the Quad’s proposal but would only agree to a truce when the RSF completely withdraws from civilian areas and gives up their weapons — key provisions in the plan Idris put forward on Monday.

Idris said unless the paramilitary forces were confined to camps, a truce had “no chance for success.” He challenged the 15 members of the Security Council to back his proposal.

“This initiative can mark the moment when Sudan steps back from the edge and the international community — You! You! — stood on the right side of history,” the Sudanese prime minister said. He said the council should “be remembered not as a witness to collapse, but as a partner in recovery.”

U.S. deputy ambassador Jeffrey Bartos, who spoke to the council before Idris, said the Trump administration has offered a humanitarian truce as a way forward and “We urge both belligerents to accept this plan without preconditions immediately.”

Bartos said the Trump administration strongly condemns the horrific violence across Darfur and the Kordofan region — and the atrocities committed by both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, who must be held accountable.

UAE Ambassador Mohamed Abushahab, a member of the Quad, said there is an immediate opportunity to implement the humanitarian truce and get aid to Sudanese civilians in desperate need.

“Lessons of history and present realities make it clear that unilateral efforts by either of the warring parties are not sustainable and will only prolong the war,” he warned.

Abushahab said a humanitarian truce must be followed by a permanent ceasefire “and a pathway towards civilian rule independent of the warring parties.”

U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for political affairs Khaled Khiari reflected escalating council concerns about the Sudan war, which has been fueled by the continuing supply of increasingly sophisticated weapons.

He criticized unnamed countries that refuse to stop supplying weapons, and both government and paramilitary forces for remaining unwilling to compromise or de-escalate.

“While they were able to stop fighting to preserve oil revenues, they have so far failed to do the same to protect their population,” Khiari said. “The backers of both sides must use their influence to help stop the slaughter, not to cause further devastation.”


The devastating war in Sudan has killed more than 40,000 people according to U.N. figures, but aid groups say the true number could be many times higher. The conflict has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people displaced, disease outbreaks and famine spreading in parts of the country.
 

Plain Jane

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Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger call for joint ‘large-scale operations’ against extremists​

BABA AHMED
Updated 2:44 PM EST, December 23, 2025
Leer en español

BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — The head of an alliance of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger declared Tuesday that the launch of a joint battalion “must be followed by large-scale operations in the coming days” in a region plagued by deadly extremism.

Burkina Faso leader Capt. Ibrahim Traoré gave no details in his comments after being named the new head of the Alliance of Sahel States, whose three military-led members withdrew from West Africa’s regional bloc this year. The alliance formed in 2023.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are the most affected as the vast Sahel region south of the Sahara has become the deadliest place in the world for extremism, with armed groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. All three countries have seen coups in recent years and struggled with overstretched security forces.

The countries’ leaders agreed in a summit Tuesday to boost security and economic ties, days after the weekend launch of the joint military battalion that’s meant to fight the armed groups. It is expected to have 5,000 personnel.

The alliance has “put an end to all occupation forces in our countries,” said Niger’s junta leader, Abdourahamane Tchiani, alluding to member states’ decisions to kick out longtime partners France and the United States.

"No country or interest group will decide for our countries anymore,” Tchiani added.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, however, have turned to Russia as a major security ally.


The Sahel’s complex security crisis remains “very difficult to defeat” no matter who’s engaged with the alliance, said Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel specialist with the Policy Center for the New South think tank in Morocco.

The second annual summit shows growing collaboration among the three countries despite fractured relations and coup-related sanctions from global partners, said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.


The alliance “enjoys popularity among citizens of the three countries” and is trying to keep momentum going by deepening cooperation beyond cross-border military operations, Laessing said.
 

jward

passin' thru
usatoday.com
Trump says US hit ISIS targets in Nigeria


Updated Dec. 25, 2025, 6:29 p.m. ET

President Donald Trump announced on Dec. 25 that the U.S. military had attacked Islamic State targets in Nigeria.

In a post on Truth Social, the president said he directed the military to launch a "powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!"
President Donald Trump attends a press conference, as he makes an announcement about the Navy's "Golden Fleet" at Mar-a-lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., December 22, 2025.

"I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was," Trump continued, adding that the Pentagon conducted "numerous" strikes against ISIS targets in the region.

The announcement comes after the U.S. military launched airstrikes on several ISIS targets in Syria on Dec. 19, following the deaths of two U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter.

This is a developing story.
 

jward

passin' thru
Nick Sortor
@nicksortor
14m

SECRETARY OF WAR HEGSETH after STRIKING ISIS in Nigeria: “MORE TO COME!”

“The President was clear last month: the kiIIing of innocent Christians in Nigeria (and elsewhere) must END.

The DoW is always ready, so ISIS found out tonight — on Christmas. More to come...”
 

jward

passin' thru
redstate.com
Breaking: Trump Announces Deadly Strike vs. 'ISIS Terrorist Scum' in Nigeria


President Donald Trump announced, in a post spreading Christmas Day greetings on Thursday, that the United States military has made good on his prior threats to wipe out the terrorists in the northwestern part of Nigeria who were eradicating Christians in the African nation.

As RedState previous wrote, Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth strongly condemned the wholesale slaughter of Christians, something Hegseth pressed in meetings with the Nigerian government in Nov. On Nov. 1, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post:

If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities. I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!

Rapper Nikki Minaj helped make the issue global, when she thanked the Trump administration on behalf of her fellow Christians for taking actions to end the heinous mass killings by ISIS. She also recently appeared at TPUSA's AmericaFest to speak about the terror attacks.

READ MORE: Nicki Minaj Thanked Trump for Condemning Christian Genocide in Nigeria. Now She Has Backlash.

Pete Hegseth Ups the Ante After Trump Demands Christian Genocide in Nigeria Stop

In a Truth Social post, the president said the U.S. has begun air strikes against ISIS:

pic.twitter.com/zrOe14gKf4
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) December 25, 2025

Trump wrote on Christmas:

"Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries! I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was. The Department of War executed numerous perfect strikes, as only the United States is capable of doing. Under my leadership, our Country will not allow Radical Islamic Terrorism to prosper. May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues."

His note to friend and foe alike was signed:

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth also reshared the president's post on the attack. Here he was in the fall., meeting with national security leaders from Nigeria, in hopes of "end[ing] the persecution of Christians by jihadist terrorists" with the government's help:

Yesterday, I met with Nigeria’s National Security Advisor and his team to discuss the horrific violence against Christians in their country.

Under @POTUS leadership, DOW is working aggressively with Nigeria to end the persecution of Christians by jihadist terrorists. pic.twitter.com/NPjh2Gcp9b
— Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (@SecWar) November 21, 2025

This is a developing story. RedState will provide further details as more information becomes available.
 

jward

passin' thru
bbc.com

US launches strikes against Islamic State in Nigeria​




BBC

One strike hit a field near a village in Sokoto state

The US has launched strikes against militants linked to the Islamic State group (IS) in north-western Nigeria, where militants have sought to establish a foothold.
Camps run by the group in Sokoto state were hit near the border with Niger, the US military said. Casualty numbers are unclear, but both US and Nigerian officials say militants were killed.

US President Donald Trump said the Christmas Day strikes had been "deadly" and labelled the group "terrorist scum", saying they had been "targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians".
Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar told the BBC it was a "joint operation" and had "nothing to do with a particular religion".

Tuggar said the strikes had been planned "for quite some time" using intelligence provided by Nigeria. He also did not rule out further strikes.
Referencing the timing of strikes - which took place late on Thursday - he said they did not have "anything to do with Christmas".
The Nigerian government has long been fighting an array of jihadist groups, including Boko Haram and IS-linked factions, but largely in the north-east. But in recent years a smaller group - known locally as Lakurawa - has sought to establish a base in north-western Sokoto state.

On Friday morning, the Nigerian foreign ministry said authorities were engaged in "security co-operation with international partners", including the US. "This has led to precision hits on terrorist targets in Nigeria by air strikes in the north-west," it said.
The US military said an "initial assessment" suggested "multiple" fatalities in Sokoto state.
The chairman of the Tangaza local government area, Isa Salihu Bashir, told the BBC the strikes had "hit some Lakurawa terrorist camps". He said many fighters had been killed but could not confirm the death toll.

Bashir added that border patrols on the Niger side reported seeing Lakurawa fighters fleeing the targeted areas.
A separate strike on Thursday hit a field in the town of Jabo, further south in Sokoto, but there were no reports of casualties. "Something that looked like a plane flashed and crashed... in fields," eyewitness Umar Jabo told the BBC.
He said there was no issue with IS in the area: "Here in Jabo, we live peacefully, and there is no conflict between us and Christians."

The Trump administration has previously accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians from jihadist attacks and has claimed a "genocide" is being perpetrated.
Trump has labelled Nigeria a "country of particular concern", a designation used by the US state department that provides for sanctions against countries "engaged in severe violations of religious freedom".
The US military was ordered to prepare to intervene in Nigeria in November.
US Department of Defense

The US defence department posted a short video that appears to show a missile being launched from a military vessel

At the time, an adviser to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu told BBC News that militants had targeted people "across faiths", and said any US military action should be carried out jointly.
Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, with about 220 million people, divided roughly evenly between Christians and Muslims.
In a social media post late on Christmas Day confirming the strikes, Trump said that he would "not allow Radical Islamic Terrorism to prosper".
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Thursday that he was "grateful for Nigerian government support & cooperation". The Pentagon later posted a short video that appeared to show a missile being launched from a ship.
grey-placeholder.png
Map of Nigeria


Militants allied to IS have sought to establish a presence in two north-western states, while a separate IS-linked group has a stronghold in north-eastern Borno

Jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and IS-linked offshoots have wrought havoc in north-eastern Nigeria for more than a decade, killing thousands of people.

Most victims have been Muslims, according to Acled, a group that analyses political violence around the world.
Nigerian human rights lawyer and conflict analyst Bulama Bukati told the BBC that Lakurawa started slipping into Nigeria in 2018 but over the past 18 months to two years had established camps in Sokoto state and Kebbi state.
"They have been launching attacks and imposing their social laws over people in Sokoto state over the past 18 months or so."

The Nigeria strikes are the second major US intervention targeting IS in recent weeks.
Last week, the US said it had carried out a "massive strike" against IS in Syria.
US Central Command (Centcom) said fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery had struck more than 70 targets. Aircraft from Jordan were also involved.
Those strikes were launched in retaliation for the killing of three Americans - two soldiers and a civilian interpreter - in an ambush.
 

jward

passin' thru
Gunther Eagleman™
@GuntherEagleman

HUGE WIN: Nigeria’s Federal Government just CONFIRMED full ongoing security and intelligence cooperation with the United States after President Trump’s devastating precision airstrikes obliterated ISIS terrorist positions in the Northwest!

Shared intel and structured collaboration enabled these deadly hits on radical Islamic scum targeting innocent Christians.

Trump is delivering REAL protection worldwide, America leads, and partners are stepping up!

More strikes if needed. God Bless our military!
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
I don’t give a sh*t about Affika, or the billions of ignorant savages that live there, nor will I read a single one of the 500,000 words expended on this topic.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

West Africa Under Jihadist Threat: Sahel States Surrendering Sovereignty To Islamic Terrorist Groups​

by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026 - 03:30 AM
Authored by Lawrence Franklin vi The Gatestone Institute,
Al-Qaeda's branch in Africa's Sahel region has been laying siege to Mali's capital city, as well as other areas of the country. The Algerian-based Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliated Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (Support Group for Islam and Muslims, JNIM) are cutting a wide swath of terrorist operations across West Africa's Sahel region. This coalition of Jihadist groups now threatens the sovereignty of Mali and several other Sahelian states.

Islamist operatives now control all the main routes in and out of Bamako, Mali's capital city, cutting it off from fuel, food, and friendly neighbors. JNIM militants have also targeted Mali's transport, communications, educational network, and economic infrastructure in rural regions. Some towns in Mali are negotiating deals with Jihadist groups to secure some semblance of liberty and save their lives by agreeing to adopt Islamic Sharia law and pay "protection taxes" (jizyah) to Islamic officials.

Burkina Faso and Niger, two other Sahel states, landlocked like Mali, are also under severe pressure by the al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM to surrender their sovereignty to hardcore Sunni Islamic extremists. All three countries, once colonies of France's West African Empire, have in the past five years expelled French troops who had been assisting the host governments. All three are governed by non-democratic military juntas with little popular support, and thus have been unable to deal effectively with their common Jihadist threat.

These military regimes, which have formed the "Alliance of Sahel States," brought in mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group and Africa Corps to replace French troops. Yet the Russians have been failing in their mission to shore up the juntas. Moscow's mercenaries suffered a major defeat in July 2024, near Mali's border with Algeria, at the hands of Tuareg rebels, who are also allied with the Al-Qaeda-linked Jihadists. Reportedly, dozens of Russian troops were killed during an ambush that occurred during a desert sandstorm.

Jihadist recruits in the Sahel are primarily ethnically Tuareg, some of whom desire to establish an independent state in what is now northern Mali. The region's other minorities, particularly in Mali, are also attracted to Islamist terrorist groups, including semi-nomadic Fulani tribesmen who populate the semi-deserts of the Sahel. Criminal networks have similarly thrown their lot in with the Jihadists, making money from kidnap ransoms and the sale of purloined gold shavings from Sahelian mines.

The Jihadist threat is not limited to the Sahel, but exists in the entirety of West Africa. For example, JNIM attacks now include assaults on the coastal African countries of Togo and Benin. There is even a report of a JNIM-sponsored foray across the border into Northwest Nigeria.

While most of the terrorist violence can be attributed to al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, Islamic State militants are also a predatory agent in the region. Fortunately, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State jihadists also clash against one another.

Unless there is some urgent military assistance from the West, the success of the terrorists will continue. Logistical requirements of such external-based military aid would probably necessitate the establishment of a rescue corridor inside the territory of Ghana or the Ivory Coast. Alternatively, the juntas may be able to strike a temporary deal with either the Al-Qaeda or Islamic State proxies over sharing governmental powers -- further delegitimizing the junta regimes and deteriorating the future of West Africa. Unless there is an immediate Western intervention, one or more of these military regimes is likely to suffer a terrorist takeover in 2026.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Trump's Planned Mediation Between Egypt & Ethiopia Might Worsen Regional Tensions​

by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jan 19, 2026 - 04:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko,
Trump declared in a letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he shared on social media that “I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all’, adding in tacit support of Egypt’s position that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile”.

He concluded that “Resolving the tensions around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is at the very top of my agenda”.


The fact is that “GERD Is Just A False Pretext For Egypt To Pressure Ethiopia” and “Ethiopia’s Final Filling Of Its Grand Renaissance Dam Debunked Years Of Egyptian Disinformation” in 2023. It was also assessed last summer that “Trump’s Latest Remarks About GERD Raise Questions About His Understanding Of This Dispute”, which weren’t corrected as proven by the substance of the abovementioned letter. Egypt might therefore be manipulating him into supporting its regional containment campaign against Ethiopia.

To explain, GERD is a pretext for Egypt to justify meddling inside of and around Ethiopia by resuming its Old Cold War-era policy of backing armed anti-government groups and allying with Eritrea, whose independence was achieved with the help of Egyptian military aid during the decades-long civil war. The Ethiopian Foreign Minister suggested late last year that Eritrea is becoming an anti-Ethiopian state at its Egyptian patron’s behest just like Ukraine became an anti-Russian one at its NATO patrons’ behest.

Egypt also exploited Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland in early 2024 for recognizing its 1991 redeclaration of independence in exchange for access to the sea to assemble a containment coalition with Somalia and Eritrea. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is finalizing an alliance with Egypt and Somalia for removing Emirati influence from Somaliland, which follows the Somali Defense Minister requesting that the Saudis replicate their successful South Yemeni campaign there sometime soon.

Circling back to Trump’s letter to Sisi, his tacit support of Egypt’s position on GERD – which is a faux dispute since this megaproject is purely about powering Ethiopia’s economic rise and not cutting off water to Egypt – might embolden Cairo to more aggressively contain Ethiopia.

After all, Trump’s implicit backing of Egypt could predispose him to believing that any Ethiopian response to its potentially intensified regional containment is “unprovoked aggression”, which could lead to US pressure upon it.

For example, Ethiopia might use force to expel the Eritrean troops that still occupy parts of its restive Tigray Region and/or deter a Saudi-led coalition campaign against Somaliland by recognizing it and deploying troops there (possibly in coordination with Israel).


Given the influence that Sisi now clearly wields over Trump due to how pleased Trump is with Sisi mediating the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire, which Trump considers to be an historic achievement, Trump might lash out at Ethiopia in those scenarios.

Ethiopia might therefore soon find itself in a difficult position where it’s coerced by the US through various means, from tariff threats to support for Egypt’s regional containment campaign, into strategic concessions at the expense of its sovereignty.

If Ethiopia can’t incentivize Trump via a minerals deal into pivoting to its side or being neutral, then maybe its close Israeli partner can help due to their convergent interests in Somaliland, Israel’s own tensions with Egypt, and its much greater influence with Trump.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Burkina faso, Mali, Niger turn to Russia to build the Sahel’s first shared telecom satellite​


Solomon Ekanem
22 January 2026 05:54 PM


Officials from Russia and Burkina Faso have discussed cooperation on launching a Russian telecommunications satellite to benefit the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reinforcing Moscow’s growing footprint across the Sahel.
Burkina faso, Mali, Niger turn to Russia to build the Sahel’s first shared telecom satellite

Burkina faso, Mali, Niger turn to Russia to build the Sahel’s first shared telecom satellite

  • Russian and Burkina Faso officials discussed the launch of a Russian telecommunications satellite aimed at benefiting the AES
  • The meeting was held in Ouagadougou with high-level figures including cosmonaut Alexandre Gorbounov
  • Discussions included advanced cooperation in space technology to enhance economic and security-related applications in the Sahel region.
  • This initiative builds on prior agreements between Russia and AES countries for satellite projects
The discussions took place during a meeting in Ouagadougou between Russia’s ambassador, Igor Martynov, and Burkina Faso’s Prime Minister Jean Emmanuel Ouedraogo, according to Sputnik Africa.

Representatives discussed broader cooperation in space exploration and the use of Russian space technologies for economic and security applications, a signal that the AES could tap into satellite technology to improve governance and infrastructure.
Among those present was the cosmonaut Alexandre Gorbounov, further highlighting the symbolic importance of the space dialogue for the Sahel bloc.

The satellite talks build on earlier agreements between Russia and AES countries to develop space capabilities.

In September 2024, ministers from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso met with Russia’s aerospace agency Roscosmos to pursue joint satellite projects, including telecommunications and remote sensing satellites intended to expand broadband internet access, secure encrypted communications, and improve surveillance of vast, under-served territories in the Sahel.

The meeting was held in Ouagadougou with high-level figures including cosmonaut Alexandre Gorbounov

The projects are designed to enhance both civilian and national security capacities.

For the Alliance of Sahel States, jointly pursuing satellite technology represents more than a communications upgrade; it is part of a broader push for sovereignty and technological independence.

AES leaders have been explicit about reducing reliance on external actors and building regional capabilities in areas such as security, infrastructure and digital connectivity.

The satellite initiative would provide internet, mobile phone services and broadcasting in remote areas where traditional infrastructure is lacking, while remote sensing technology could support border monitoring and disaster response across the Sahel’s vast terrain.

For Russia, deepening cooperation with the AES advances long-term strategic interests in the region. Moscow was the first country to formally recognise the Alliance of Sahel States, showing shared political positions and a commitment to partnership on security and diplomatic fronts.

Russia’s engagement with the AES also reflects its broader pivot toward Africa as Western influence wanes following the withdrawal of French and other Western forces from the Sahel over recent years.

If realised, an AES communications satellite could mark a symbolic leap in technological cooperation and signal a deepening geo-strategic alignment between Moscow and this emerging West African bloc.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Sudan’s military says it breaks the paramilitary RSF’s siege of a key town​

Updated 12:46 PM EST, January 26, 2026

CAIRO (AP) — Sudan’s military said Monday it has broken a siege imposed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on a key town in the central Kordofan region during the country’s civil war.

In a statement, the military said it had opened a route leading to Dilling town in South Kordofan province, which the RSF for months has attempted to control. Holding the town means control over major supply lines.

“Our forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy, both personal and equipment,” the statement said.

There was no immediate comment from the RSF, which has been at war with the military for nearly three years.

Sudan plunged into chaos in April 2023 when a power struggle between the military and the RSF exploded into open fighting in the capital, Khartoum, and elsewhere. The war has killed more than 40,000 people, according to U.N. figures, but aid groups say the true number could be many times higher.

The fighting has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people forced to flee their homes. Parts of the country have been pushed into famine.

Dilling has reportedly experienced severe hunger, but the world’s leading authority on food security, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, didn’t declare famine there in its November report because of a lack of data.

After being forced out of Khartoum in 2025, the paramilitary group has focused on Kordofan and the city of el-Fasher, which was the military’s last stronghold in the sprawling Darfur region until the RSF seized it in October.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.......

Middle East Forum Observer

Turkey’s F-16 Deployment to Somalia Reinforces Danger of Arms Sales to Ankara​


Prudence Dictates No Longer Trusting Turkey to Take Ownership over Any Sensitive Military Technology


January 29, 2026
Michael Rubin

Rashid Abdi, an analyst at Kenya’s Sahan research and perhaps the world’s leading authority on the Horn of Africa, reported on January 28, 2026, the deployment of three Turkish F-16s to Somalia. The Turkish move should end any congressional debate about further sales or transfers of U.S. military aircraft to Turkey.

Proponents of the sale argue that Turkey needs advanced jets for NATO’s collective defense. Turkey has the second-largest force under arms, although this is not necessarily a relevant metric if the Turkish government refuses to contribute them when conflict comes.

For all of Turkey’s talk about being on the right side on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the reality is Turkey plays both sides.

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has demonstrated that NATO defense is not its priority. For all of Turkey’s talk about being on the right side on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the reality is Turkey plays both sides. Its supporters issue talking points about its drone sales to Ukraine, but Erdoğan’s sanction-evasions schemes help Iran as the Islamic Republic sells drones to Russia. And while Turkey talks about its pipeline network as freeing Europe from dependence on Russian gas, Turkish officials hide the fact that much of the gas that Turkey’s pipelines transports originates in Russia or from Russian companies.

The still-unresolved S-400 controversy demonstrates Erdoğan’s disdain for NATO and any notion of a responsibility to protect American technology such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Even if Turkey accepts a compromise that forfeits the S-400, it neither erases Erdoğan’s decision-making nor prevents its recurrence. Prudence dictates no longer trusting Turkey to take ownership over any sensitive military technology.

Nor, as Cyprus steps up as a more reliable if not superior partner for the United States, does it make sense for the United States to transfer any military technology, so long as Turkey occupies its territory and steals its resources.

Turkey’s deployment of F-16s to Somalia shows its focus is not NATO defense, but anti-Americanism and Islamist empowerment. The Somali government in Mogadishu is, according to Transparency International, among the world’s most corrupt countries and only becoming more so. Turkey supports Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia’s unelected president, for the same reason the People’s Republic of China does: because he is corruptible. Turkey’s deployment comes as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joins the Turkey-Saudi-Qatari alliance to stymie Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

The Somali government in Mogadishu is, according to Transparency International, among the world’s most corrupt countries and only becoming more so.

While diplomats from the “Axis of the Ikhwan” say that recognizing Somaliland’s independence and consolidating security in a pro-Western democracy undermines security, the reality is shipping advanced weaponry to an irredentist, failed state that nurtures Syria’s Ahmed Al-Shabaab suggests Ankara would rather risk regional war than allow any order in which Islamists do not have primacy. Nor does it make sense for Turkey to suggest it needs advanced F-16s for its own defense when it deploys them 3,500 miles south.

Erdoğan treats President Donald Trump and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack as useful idiots in his quest to enhance his military power and counter America’s regional interests. Turkey might say its needs F-16s jets for its and NATO’s security, but Turkey’s deployment of jets to Mogadishu should make any congressman, diplomat, or Pentagon official laugh anyone who makes that argument out of the room.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

  1. News
  2. MENA

Turkey deploys F-16 jets in Somalia
MENA
2 min read
The New Arab Staff & Agencies

30 January, 2026

The deployment follows Turkey's condemnation of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic

Turkey has deployed F-16 fighter jets to Somalia, officials told AFP on Thursday, as Ankara seeks to expand its military footprint in the Horn of Africa.

Ankara is a key ally of Somalia, providing extensive military and economic support to the country, which has been ravaged by civil war since the early 1990s.

"Turkey has deployed F-16 jets in Somalia," a government official told AFP, without giving further details.

A second official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the aircraft would be operated by the Turkish contingent stationed in Somalia.

"This is for our own security," the source said, stressing that the jets would not be flown by Somali personnel.

Turkey opened its largest overseas military base in the Somali capital Mogadishu in 2017.

Ankara maintains a task force and an air component command there "to contribute to the development of Somalia's counter-terrorism capacity through military assistance, training and advisory activities", according to the Turkish defence ministry.

The deployment follows Turkey's condemnation of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic, calling it "overt interference in Somalia's domestic affairs".

Somaliland declared independence in 1991, as Somalia was plunged into chaos following the fall of dictator Siad Barre.
The region has operated autonomously since then and possesses its own currency, army and police force.

It has generally experienced greater stability than Somalia, where Al-Shabaab Islamist militants periodically mount attacks in Mogadishu.

Diplomatic isolation has been the norm - until Israel's move to recognise it as a sovereign nation, which has been criticised by the African Union, Egypt, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and the Saudi-based Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

The European Union has insisted Somalia's sovereignty should be respected.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Burkina Faso hits record 94 tonnes of gold output as mining reforms gain traction​


Segun Adeyemi
03 February 2026 07:37 AM


Burkina Faso’s mining sector delivered a historic performance in 2025, with national gold production hitting a record 94 tonnes, according to official figures presented by the Minister of Energy, Mines, and Quarries, Yacouba Zabré Gouba.

  • Burkina Faso produced a record 94 tonnes of gold in 2025, marking a sharp rise from the previous year.
  • Mining reforms powered the surge, with stronger oversight of industrial mines and increased artisanal output.
  • Energy access also expanded, with thousands of new households connected to the national grid.
  • The government plans deeper mining and energy reforms in 2026 to boost local participation and industrialisation.
The output, which includes industrial production, artisanal mining, and state seizures, increased by more than 30 tonnes compared with 2024, marking one of the strongest annual performances in the country’s extractive history.

Minister Gouba disclosed the figures while presenting his ministry’s 2025 performance report to Prime Minister Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo.

He reported an 89.66 percent achievement rate under the ministry’s performance contract, attributing the gains largely to mining-sector reforms anchored in economic sovereignty.

“The mining sector performed very well in 2025,” Gouba said, noting that about 42 tonnes of gold came from artisanal mining activities.
He attributed the surge to the operationalisation of the state-owned Burkina Faso Mining Participation Company, SOPAMIB, as well as tighter oversight of the country’s 15 industrial mines.

Government efforts to clamp down on illegal gold trading also yielded results, with authorities recovering about 10 kilograms of gold from illicit supply chains during the year.


Beyond mining, the ministry reported notable progress in energy access and urban infrastructure. Nearly 160,000 households were newly connected to the national electricity grid in 2025, while 131 rural localities gained access to power.

The government also deployed more than 165 kilometres of transmission lines and roughly 500 kilometres of low-voltage lines to strengthen electricity distribution nationwide.
Urban and peri-urban security was another focus area, with over 25,000 streetlights installed across cities and surrounding communities.

Looking ahead, the Burkinabè government plans to deepen reforms in 2026, including restructuring the Bureau of Mines and Geology of Burkina Faso and reorganising artisanal mining into formal cooperatives.

Authorities are also targeting at least 10 semi-mechanised mining projects, all led entirely by local private investors.

“In 2026, we will work to firmly entrench energy and mining sovereignty,” Gouba said.
 

jward

passin' thru
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
12h

BREAKING:

The U.S. has sent troops to Nigeria to fight ISIS

U.S. officials confirmed that a military team has been sent to Nigeria, marking the first official acknowledgment of American forces on the ground since the U.S. carried out airstrikes against ISIS in December.




abcnews.go.com
US announces military team sent to Nigeria after recent attacks


The U.S. has sent a small team of military officers to Nigeria, according to General Dagvin R

ByOPE ADETAYO Associated Press

February 3, 2026, 3:41 PM

LAGOS, Nigeria -- The U.S. has dispatched a small team of military officers to Nigeria, the general in charge of U.S. Africa Command told reporters in a briefing on Tuesday.

General Dagvin R.M. Anderson said the move followed his meeting with Nigeria's president, Bola Tinubu, in Rome late last year.

“That has led to increased collaboration between our nations, to include a small U.S. team that brings some unique capabilities from the United States in order to augment what Nigeria has been doing for several years,” Anderson said.

It is unclear when the team arrived in Nigeria.

The military officers are the latest step since the U.S launched airstrikes against a group affiliated with the Islamic State last year on Dec. 25.

Nigeria has been in the diplomatic crosshairs of the U.S. following threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to attack the country, alleging the West African nation is not doing enough to protect its Christian citizens. Following the allegations, the West African country was designated as a Country of Particular Concern, a congressional designation in the U.S. for countries responsible for religious oppression.

The Nigerian government firmly rejected the claim of Christian genocide, saying the armed groups target people regardless of their faith.

Popular Reads

The diplomatic dispute has led to increased military cooperation between the two countries. The terms of the cooperation have been unclear. The U.S has supplied Nigeria with military equipment and carried out reconnaissance missions across Nigeria.

Nigeria has been battling several armed groups across the country. The groups include Islamist sects like Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province.

Last month, an armed group launched simultaneous attacks on three churches in northwestern Kaduna state abducting 168 people.

___

Follow AP’s Africa coverage at: Africa News Reports | Latest News in Africa
 

jward

passin' thru
reuters.com
US military says some forces have been dispatched to Nigeria


Nigeria's Chief of Army Staff inspects troops in Maimalari Cantonment in Maiduguri, Borno Nigeria

A Nigerian soldier stands on a military truck, during the tour of the Theatre Command Operation Lafiya Dole by Nigeria's Chief of Army Staff, at the Maimalari Cantonment in Maiduguri, Borno, Nigeria, November 7, 2025. REUTERS/Ahmed Kingimi Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

DAKAR, Feb 3 - The U.S. has sent a small team of troops to Nigeria, the general in charge of the U.S. command for Africa said on Tuesday, the first acknowledgment of U.S. forces on the ground since Washington struck by air on Christmas Day.

President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on what he described as Islamic State targets in Nigeria in December and said there could be more U.S. military action there.

The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide to the biggest events in global sport. Sign up here.

Reuters earlier reported that the U.S. had been conducting surveillance flights over the country from Ghana since at least late November.

The top general said the U.S. team was sent after both countries agreed that more needed to be done to combat the terrorist threat in West Africa.

"That has led to increased collaboration between our nations to include a small US team that brings some unique capabilities from the United States," General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, head of the U.S. military's Africa Command AFRICOM, told journalists during a press briefing on Tuesday.

Anderson did not provide further details about the size and scope of their mission.

Defense Minister Christopher Musa confirmed that a team was working in Nigeria but did not provide further details.

A former U.S. official said the U.S. team appeared to be heavily involved in intelligence gathering and enabling Nigerian forces to strike terrorist-affiliated groups.

Nigeria has come under intense pressure by Washington to act after President Trump accused the West African nation of failing to protect Christians from Islamist militants operating in the northwest.

The Nigerian government denies any systematic persecution of Christians, saying it is targeting Islamist fighters and other armed groups that attack both Christian and Muslim civilians.

Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters have intensified attacks on military convoys and civilians, and the northwest remains the epicentre of the 17-year Islamist insurgency.

The U.S. military’s Africa Command said the strike was carried out in Sokoto state in coordination with Nigerian authorities and killed multiple ISIS militants.

The strike came after Trump in late October began warning that Christianity faces an "existential threat" in Nigeria and threatened to militarily intervene in the West African country over what he says is its failure to stop violence targeting Christian communities.

Reporting by Jessica Donati in Dakar and Macdonald Dzirutwe in Lagos; Writing by Jessica Donati; Editing by Alexandra Hudson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Nigerian police say armed group killed 33 in fresh simultaneous attacks​

By DYEPKAZAH SHIBAYAN
Updated 5:04 AM EST, February 20, 2026

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — At least 33 people have been killed after Islamic militants launched simultaneous attacks on a district in northwest Nigeria, according to the police.

The attack took place on Wednesday in the Biu community of Kebbi state, police spokesman Bashir Usman said in a statement late Thursday night.

The assailants crossed from Sokoto state, parts of which are occupied by the Lakurawa insurgent group, Usman said.

“Preliminary investigations confirm that armed Lakurawa militants entered the area to rustle cattle,” he said, adding that security personnel have been deployed to restore calm and maintain order.

The Lakurawa group operates in parts of northwestern Nigeria, particularly around communities in the northwestern state of Sokoto. The armed group is known to engage in cattle rustling, raids on villages and kidnappings for ransom.

Northern Nigeria is in the grip of a complex security crisis featuring both Islamic militants and armed criminal gangs kidnapping people for ransom.

The West African nation is in security cooperation with the U.S. after initial diplomatic tensions. Earlier this week, the Nigerian military announced the arrival of 100 U.S troops in Nigeria to help train its military in its fight against armed groups.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Why Chad may be drawn into Sudan's war​

Philipp Sandner
16 hours ago16 hours ago
Chad has closed down its border with Sudan, saying it does not want the conflict to spread. Experts accuse it, however, of supplying arms to the RSF, one of the warring factions.

The war in Sudan is getting closer to Chad: Over the weekend, the Sudanese army and its allies fought with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia directly on the border.

According to news agencies, on Saturday, several Chadian soldiers and civilians were killed near the Chadian border town of Tine.

On Monday, the Chadian government took action and closed the 1,300-kilometer (807 miles) border with Sudan.

Chadian Communications Minister Gassim Cherif said that the warring factions in Sudan had repeatedly violated the border and the aim of closing it was to prevent "any risk of the conflict spreading" to Chad.

Since December, Chadian territory has seen fighting on several occasions. In mid-January, RSF fighters pursued rival militias into Chad and attacked an army position there, killing seven soldiers.

Roger Alladoum, who works for an aid organization in the Chadian border town of Adre, welcomed the move.

"It is a good decision that Chad has closed its border with Sudan. This area has been very dangerous since December," he told DW. "Every day, armed men from Sudan attack and kill people without being stopped, sometimes even soldiers. Even we humanitarian workers are not safe."

Some people and trees on the border between Chad and Sudan
Some people and trees on the border between Chad and Sudan

For many Sudanese refugees, being able to cross into Chad is a lifelineImage: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/REUTERS

Influence of foreign powers on civil war​

In Sudan, where a civil war has lasted for decades, the regular army has been fighting for power with the RSF since April 2023. The situation has been exacerbated by foreign powers that are funding the conflict, particularly Saudi Arabia on the side of the army and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on that of the RSF.


Since the start of the war, Chad has already taken in more than 1 million refugees. Andrea Behrends, an ethnologist who heads the Institute for Social and Cultural Anthropology at the University of Leipzig, told DW that the conflict was complicated by an artificial division dating back to the colonial era, which meant there were people on both sides of the border who belong to the same ethnic group.

The Zaghawa, she said, played very different roles in Chad and Sudan, for example.

"In Chad, they are among those who are extremely favored by the government," she explained, adding that some have been enriching themselves at the expense of the population and enjoying extensive impunity.

"The Zaghawa in Sudan, on the other hand, have allied themselves with the Sudanese army and are fighting against the RSF."

She said that different Zaghawa factions had clashed at the border near Tine and there was a high risk of the conflict spreading.

A man in military uniform inspects weapons

Chad is accused of supplying the RSF with weapons from the UEAImage: AP/dpa/picture alliance

Chad accused of supplying weapons to RSF​

Chad is accused of supplying weapons from the UAE to the RSF in Sudan. Though the government rejects the allegations, Charles Bouessel from the International Crisis Group, a non-profit organization that campaigns to resolve conflict, told DW that since 2023, Chad had signed "several quite important cooperation agreements with the UAE, which is the biggest international sponsor of the RSF."

At the same time, he added, Chad had made its territory available to the UAE so that it could supply materials, "namely arms," to the RSF.

According to the Reuters news agency, dozens of cargo planes have flown to the airport of Amdjarass, a Chadian city located close to the Sudanese border, from the UAE since the war began in 2023.

Could Saudi Arabia play a bigger role than UAE?​

According to Bouessel, arms deliveries from Chad to the RSF have declined this year. Along with the frequent border violations by RSF fighters, this could indicate that Chadian President Mahamat Deby is yielding to pressure from the Zaghawa group, which plays an influential role in the army and is attempting to alter Chad's role, he said.

Bouessel explained that certain Chadian Zaghawa generals were reportedly lending support to Zaghawa groups in Darfur as part of the fight against the RSF. He said that President Deby was allowing the generals to do this, "perhaps to appease their anger and give them space to pursue their own agenda." This would explain the recent attacks on Chadian soldiers, he added.

There is a lot at stake for Deby. Chad receives massive support from the UAE — in 2023, loans totaling US$1.5 billion (€1.3 billion) were agreed to. In the event of a break with the UAE, a strong financial partner would be needed to compensate for lost funds.

Could this be Saudi Arabia, which is increasingly emerging as a rival to the UAE in the Horn of Africa? Bouessel said that in January the High Council of Islamic Affairs in Chad had signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia.

It is not yet possible to draw any clear conclusions from this. But for the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the closure of the border between Sudan and Chad is "extremely concerning for Sudanese families fleeing unimaginable violence and searching for safety."

Zeleke Bacha, IRC Sudan West Director said that "for many, crossing into Chad has been a lifeline, and with access now cut off, people risk being trapped in dangerous conditions with limited food, water and medical care."

Blaise Dariustone in the capital, N'Djamena, contributed to this article, which was first published in German.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Islamic militants abduct more than 300 people in northeastern Nigeria, officials say​


DYEPKAZAH SHIBAYAN and WILSON MCMAKIN
Updated 5:17 PM EST, March 6, 2026

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — Islamic militants attacked a town in northeastern Nigeria on Friday, abducting more than 300 people, including women and children, local officials said.

The attack happened in the town of Ngoshe in Borno state, according to Bulama Sawa, an official from the Gwoza area. He told The Associated Press the attack was likely in retaliation for an operation by the military that killed three commanders of the militant Boko Haram group.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack.
Nigeria is battling a complex security crisis from different armed groups. The United States has sent troops to the West African nation to help advise its military on the fight against insecurity.
Separate attacks this week also took place in the communities of Konduga, Marte, Jakana, and Mainok between Wednesday and early Friday, according to a military spokesperson.

The spokesperson, Uba Sani, said the troops were able to repel the attacks on the communities of Konduga, Marte, Jakana and Mainok, but “a number of brave soldiers paid the supreme price in the line of duty,” along with a senior officer. He did not elaborate on military casualties.

Sani described the assaults as “failed attacks” and said they showed “increasing desperation of terrorist elements under sustained operational pressure” from the military.

Ulf Laessing, with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said Friday’s attack on Ngoshe took advantage of the Nigerian army’s difficulties in controlling large swaths of the country where jihadi groups operate. Militants are also benefiting from increased cross-border cooperation between their groups and the use of drones to scout out their targets before attacking.

“The army is fighting a ghost — fighters descending with motorbikes on villages and disappearing into the bush before the army can respond in time,” said Laessing.

Ulf Laessing, with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said Friday’s attack on Ngoshe took advantage of the Nigerian army’s difficulties in controlling large swaths of the country where jihadi groups operate. Militants are also benefiting from increased cross-border cooperation between their groups and the use of drones to scout out their targets before attacking.

“The army is fighting a ghost — fighters descending with motorbikes on villages and disappearing into the bush before the army can respond in time,” said Laessing.

Among the most prominent Islamic militant groups are Boko Haram and its breakaway faction, which is affiliated with the Islamic State group and known as Islamic State West Africa Province. There is also the IS-linked Lakurawa, as well as other “bandit” groups that specialize in kidnapping for ransom and illegal mining.

Recently, the crisis has worsened to include other militants from the neighboring Sahel region, including the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, which claimed its first attack on Nigerian soil last year.

Several thousand people in Nigeria have been killed, according to data from the United Nations. Analysts say not enough is being done by the government to protect its citizens.

___

McMakin reported from Dakar, Senegal.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Nigeria's new corridor opens doors for jihadist groups​

Abiodun Jamiu in Nigeria's Kwara state
19 hours ago19 hours ago
Nigeria's northwest and central border regions have become a hub for Sahelian militants, raising concerns about a widening insurgency corridor that could destabilize the region.


For more than a decade, violent extremism in Nigeria was largely confined to the country's Northeast where militant Islamist movement Boko Haram and its factions have waged an extended armed rebellion against the state.

Over the past few years, however, the borderlands across Nigeria's North West and North Central regions have become a melting pot for Sahelian and local jihadists.

The area, known as the Kebbi-Kainji-Borgu triangle, straddles the Nigerian states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger and part of Kwara in central Nigeria. It stretches across the border into Niger's Dosso region and Benin's Alibori department.

The actors include homegrown jihadist groups such as the Sadiku‑led faction of Boko Haram, as well as Ansaru and the Mahmudawa group whose leaders were arrested last year, alongside criminal gangs known locally as bandits.

Together, these groups are believed to number in the hundreds of thousands, raiding villages and killing or displacing communities across the region.

The Sahelian push south​

In what appears to be a new phase of expansion for Sahelian jihadists into coastal West Africa, groups like the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have established their presence in the area.

The move follows sustained military pressure amid growing rivalry between the groups in the Liptako-Gourma tri-state area where the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger meet.

In late October last year, JNIM claimed its first known attack in the country after attacking a military position in Karonji in Kwara state.

Meanwhile, an IS Sahel-affiliated jihadist group has expanded its operations in border communities across Sokoto and Kebbi in northwestern Nigeria.

The group called Lakurawa, which has become a catch-all phrase for Sahelian militants in the area, was the target of the US Christmas bombing in Nigeria.

Lakurawa has expanded across the border into Benin's Alibori department and Niger's Dosso and Tahoua, especially around Dogon Kiria, Bagaroua and the rural commune of Allela.

The group runs the affairs of local communities, appointing imams, levying taxes, and enforcing extreme religious views on villages.


Why the tri-border corridor?​

The borderlands connecting Niger, Benin, and Nigeria form a vast stretch of ungoverned territory and underserved communities.
The aftermath of a jihadist attack in Kwara, central Nigeria
The aftermath of a jihadist attack in Kwara, central Nigeria

The aftermath of a February 2026 jihadist attack in central Nigeria's Kwara stateImage: Abiodun Sulaiman

There are also extensive forest reserves like the Kainji National Park crisscrossing the region and, in some of these rural communities, state presence is partly or nearly absent as security thins out, making border control limited.

For armed groups, analysts say this area not only allowed them to establish new operational bases and expand their logistical network through access to smuggling and illicit trade routes but also offered new manpower and recruitment opportunities.

Operating on the fringes of the borders provides strategic depth where fighters can stage attacks in one country and retreat into neighboring countries.

For instance, Mahmudawa fighters, like other groups, have been seen moving between their traditional strongholds in Kwara into Benin's Borgu and Alibori departments such as Kandi, Kalale, and Nikki, as part of efforts to establish that corridor.


How the network interacts​

James Barnett, a Lagos-based research fellow with the Hudson Institute, said that relationships between the various jihadist groups, including with criminal gangs, remain complex and overlapping, with some degree of cooperation among them.

There are instances of collaboration between groups like JNIM and the Mahmudawa group and Lakurawa and a faction of Boko Haram along the triangle.

Analysts argue that the Mahmudawa group, for instance, has potential ties and possibly helped facilitate access to local networks for JNIM to expand into the areas and establish bases within the Kainji Lake National Park.

"A lot remains unclear about the extent of cooperation between different armed groups in the Kainji axis, but it seems that they have largely managed to deconflict, which is worrying," Barnett told DW.

Barnett added that infighting among jihadist and armed groups has sometimes limited their expansion, so any modus vivendi along that axis "gives each group a degree of freedom to pursue its own operations, much to the detriment of local security."

He noted that there seems to be "cooperation between at least several of the groups there."

"I don't expect all the groups to rally under a single flag anytime soon, but the dynamics there are very worrying," Barnett added.

Changing security landscape and threatened regional stability​

Experts told DW the emerging insurgency corridor could reshape Nigeria's security landscape and further destabilize a region already strained by weak cooperation, hampering intelligence sharing and joint operations.

Situations like this, they said, allow jihadist groups like Lakurawa or IS Sahel to operate across the porous borders with Niger and Benin.

Heni Nsaibia, a researcher at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a global organization that collects data on conflicts worldwide, believes these gaps need to be closed to prevent the groups from "infiltrating and withdrawing to the other side of the border."

Across multiple fronts, Nigeria faces a fluid security situation.

The many forests in the northwest and part of the central region harbor bandits who take advantage of the rural largely ungoverned spaces.

The country's military is stretched thin because of deployments elsewhere, particularly to quell Boko Haram and its factions in the northeast, separatists in the southeast and farmer-herder crisis in central Nigeria.

Heni said a new insurgency corridor along the Kebbi-Kainji-Borgu triangle would place even greater pressure on already strained resources.

With groups that have gained experience in the Sahel, and trying to replicate this in new theaters where the conditions also are advantageous, Heni believes the baseline is about "providing security to local border communities."

Edited by: Keith Walker
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Shifting alliances shape Horn of Africa tensions​

Eskinder Firew in Addis Ababa
20 hours ago20 hours ago
Regional rivalries involving Gulf and Middle Eastern countries are influencing security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.



A geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa may expose the region and its tightly interconnected regional security complex to the Iran war, analysts say.

They note that escalating rivalry between countries often aligned with Saudi Arabia or Turkey on one side, and countries aligned with the UAE and Israel on the other. Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, for example has become a flashpoint.



Iran strategy shapes regional risks​

Moses Chrispus Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Addis Ababa, says there is a high risk of escalation in Somaliland, where Israel and the UAE have interests. He says tensions could also rise in neighboring Djibouti, where the US and other powers are active.

Okello noted that, although the Tehran‑aligned Houthi group in Yemen has not engaged in the US-Israel war with Iran thus far, any further escalation in the Middle East heightens the likelihood of their involvement.

"But they have historically indicated that any friend of Israel is an enemy. Therefore, in a way we could say that even if they are quiet, it doesn't preclude the fact that they might very easily reactivate their activity," he explained.

Houthis signal potential retaliation​

Okello also pointed out that religious dynamics might influence the Houthis' calculations, noting that most Muslims in Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti are predominantly Sunni, while the Houthis are of Shia background.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland in December 2025 was criticized by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who said "any Israeli presence in Somaliland is considered by our armed forces to be a military target," according to the DPA news agency.

Priyal Singh, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, however, believes that Somaliland features in Israel's much longer-term geopolitical ambitions for the region.

"I don't foresee any kind of hard security cooperation between Somaliland and Israel in the immediate term just because of how fluid and dynamic the situation with Iran is at the moment," he told DW.

Okello suggested that if Israel boosts its security presence in Somaliland, it could lead to renewed tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa. A previous dispute over a 2024 Memorandum of Understanding saw Ethiopia try to gain access to the Red Sea and its major trade routes in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland.

He argued Israel's recognition of Somaliland has deepened ties between Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE, which, he said, naturally isolates and concerns Mogadishu.

"If Israel increases its activity and links it up with other relations involving Ethiopia and Abu Dhabi, you can see at least an expansion of the theater of conflict," he told DW.

Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions simmer​

The conflict in the Middle East has emerged amid growing concerns about renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that landlocked Ethiopia must have direct sea access, with Eritrea's port of Assab, located just 75 kilometers (46 miles) from the Ethiopian border, frequently cited as a potential target — which has caused considerable anger in Eritrea.

In a February briefing, the International Crisis Group warned deepening rifts between Ethiopia and Eritrea are being driven partly by Addis Ababa's push for dependable sea access and Asmara's corresponding security fears, creating conditions that could escalate into open conflict.

Okello notes the involvement of regional powers such as the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia in the conflict with Iran reduces the likelihood of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

"Starting a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia now at a time when the US and UAE and all these others are caught up in the Middle East will be a front that will be extremely disorganizing. It will spread the so-called medium superpowers across many theaters," he stated.

Singh says the potential for the conflict to escalate — possibly even reaching the Horn of Africa — depends heavily on US decisions. He argues the war with Iran is particularly delicate for the current administration domestically, considering upcoming midterm elections.

"I think this past week has shown that there are certain limits that the US has to consider given how politically sensitive the issue is and how politically sensitive the issue of boots on the ground are, in the build-up to the coming mid-term elections," Singh said.

Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, recently called for "immediate de-escalation, maximum restraint by all parties, and a swift return to dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable path toward sustainable peace and regional stability."

African leaders have not yet issued a coordinated public position regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Youssouf told DW that a ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place in Morocco soon.

"There will be a meeting of the ministers of finance and foreign affairs in Morocco soon. So, we will meet to come up with adaptation measures so that we can minimize the impact of that war on our economies," Youssouf told DW.

However, he didn't specify whether there would be a meeting at the heads of state and government level in the near future.


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