Pandemic : Indonesia is on high alert after doctors discovered more bird flu victims.

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
Indonesia on bird flu alert

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/indonesia-on-bird-flu-alert/2005/09/20/1126982062497.html#

Indonesia has been placed on an "extraordinary" alert after doctors discovered more suspected bird flu victims.

However, the plan to control an outbreak, announced after an emergency meeting of the cabinet, descended into confusion after several ministers and Jakarta's Governor warned it would harm tourism.

The Health Minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, who earlier supported a national alert, said the outbreak was "not like the plague" while the Agriculture Minister, Anton Apriyanto, said there were no plans for mass culls of birds because Indonesians had "high resistance" to the virus.

There was also confusion over whether the alert applied nationwide or only to Jakarta.

Health officials put three more people into quarantine yesterday - two zoo employees and a five-year-old girl - bringing the total to seven. Of the four bird flu suspects earlier taken to hospital, two have tested positive. Blood samples from the other patients have been sent to Hong Kong for testing.

Authorities fear a pandemic would kill millions in Indonesia and across the region.

Mrs Supari said that under the alert, which will last for 21 days, authorities have the power to force suspected bird flu victims into quarantine, adding that the Government had assigned 44 state hospitals to treat bird flu patients, for free.

She said the outbreak was an "extraordinary national case … It's a high alert. Every region is on alert so if at any time it occurs in remote areas, we are ready."

She confirmed health officials had detected two cases of the virus after testing at Ragunan Zoo. The zoo was closed on Monday after tests showed most of its birds were infected.

Authorities in Jakarta have already begun testing birds at slaughterhouses and bird markets.

A team of international experts has flown to Jakarta to oversee the investigation into the outbreak and advise on preventative measures. Australia and other countries are discussing funding a bird cull and providing stockpiles of vaccine.

The World Health Organisation official heading the battle, Dr Hitoshi Oshitani, said yesterday the world might have just weeks to combat a pandemic before it caused a catastrophic number of deaths. If the virus mutated to one easily passed between humans, it could be impossible to control, he said.

Jakarta's Governor, Sutiyoso, who attended the emergency cabinet meeting, opposed classifying the outbreak as extraordinary, arguing it would harm tourism and investment.

He said foreign governments might issue warnings against travelling to Indonesia.

The Forestry Minister, Malam Kaban, criticised the closure of the zoo, as it could lead to the culling of all the animals. "We should not hurriedly declare that there is a case of bird flu. The people could be in panic."

Bird flu has killed 64 people in four Asian countries since it was detected in 2003.

Dr Oshitani said that in retrospect the SARS had been easy to contain. "The pandemic virus is much more difficult, maybe impossible, to contain once it starts, the geographic spread is historically unprecedented."

Dr Oshitani said that between December and February there would be a rapid increase in cases, and the more people struck down, the greater risk the virus would mutate.
 

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
Increasing Human to Human Transmision of H5N1 in Jakarta

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09200503/H5N1_H2H_Jakarta.html

Recombinomics Commentary
September 20, 2005

About the government`s decision on Monday to declare the outbreaks a National Extraordinary Happening (KLB), the minister said it was intended to make the public throughout the country alert to the disease.

"Besides, previously there was only one danger point, namely Pak Iwan Siswara but now there are two more danger points, namely RD and MG," she said.

The above "danger points" refer to three individuals who appear to be transmitting H5N1 to other people. The efficient human-to-human transmission is the major area of concern with regard to a catestrophic flu pandemic. H5N1 appears to be getting more and more efficient at such transmissions.

This transmission results in infections via casual contact and is becoming clearer at the Ragunan Zoo where three zoo employees have symptoms as well as in Tangang where the three human-to-human clusters are clustering.

The initial danger point was Pak Iwan Siswara who was a government auditor who died from H5N1. He is cited because he is the only member of his family listed as an official H5N1 case, but the index case was his 8 year old daughter, Sabrina Nurul Aisyah who developed bird flu symptoms on June 24. She is not listed as a confirmed case because there were only two serum samples collected and they were collected just 3 days apart so although both samples were positive and the antibody level was higher in the second collection, the increase was not 4 fold, which is the WHO standard, although that rise is expected in samples collected with longer time intervals between collections. Sabrina's 1 year old sister, Thalita Azizah, developed bird flu symptoms on June 29, but she died on July 9, so again she was not confirmed because of the lack of samples. Sabrina's father did not develop symptoms until July 2 and samples were collected at the appropriate time and he was PCR positive for H5N1. All three died within 5 days of each other, between July 9 and July 14 at Siloam Gleneagles Hospital in Tangerang. The onset dates strongly suggested that Sabrina infected her 1 year old sister and then one of the sisters infected their father.

Between this cluster and the current clusters, there were 20 suspect cases who tested negative. However, if view of the limited number of samples collected in the first cluster, false negatives cannot be easily ruled out.

The new series of clusters began with RD who was Rita Dina, Indonesia's second confirmed H5N1 case. She developed symptoms on August 31, was hospitalized on September 6 and died September 10. Although she lived in the same general area as the earlier cluster, she also lived 100 meters from a chicken slaughterhouse. At the time she developed symptoms, a 2 month-old boy, Livo Rustini (LR), died of pneumonia. He had bird flu symptoms and lived above a chicken slaughterhouse, which may have bee the same slaughterhouse 100 meters from Rita Dina's home. If not, the two slaughterhouses were near each other, because Livo's mother was interviewed while waiting in line for tests being offered to neighbors of Rita Dina.

A more direct connection with Rita Dina was her nephew who also tested positive for H5N1. The nephew has also recently developed symptoms and is currently hospitalized.

Media reports indicated that one of Rita Dina's neighbors also had bird flu symptoms and was hospitalized. This neighbor was probably a 6 year old girl with initials MG. MG was also from Tangerang and also tested positive for H5N1. She was initially hospitalized at Siloam GlenEagles Hospital in Tangerang and subsequently transferred to the Sulianti Saroso infectious disease hospital on September 14. She is in stable condition and is described above as a "danger point".

The description is consistent with rumors that she is a contact of an eighteen month old girl with initials RH. RH was admitted on September 18 with bird flu symptoms and is in critical condition.

Thus, at this time there appear to be two clusters linked by contact, RD and her nephew, and MG and RH. However, geographically MG and LR are also probably linked to RD raising serious questions about casual transmission of H5N1.

The concerns have led to the National Extraordinary Happening which is cause for concern.
 

Gingergirl

Veteran Member
"However, the plan to control an outbreak, announced after an emergency meeting of the cabinet, descended into confusion after several ministers and Jakarta's Governor warned it would harm tourism."

Shades of La. and New Orleans. Hope the outcome isn' the same.
 

Gizmom

Contributing Member
NoCarrier said:
The Health Minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, who earlier supported a national alert, said the outbreak was "not like the plague" while the Agriculture Minister, Anton Apriyanto, said there were no plans for mass culls of birds because Indonesians had "high resistance" to the virus.

What fantasy world are these people living in??? :sht:
 

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
Gizmom said:
What fantasy world are these people living in??? :sht:

Well, if the virus mutated and learned to properly infect human cells, it's too late. It doesn't matter if they kill all the birds. But like you are mentionning, their response plan is questionnable.
 

Safecastle

Emergency Essentials Store
NoCarrier said:
Yeah I know.. News about the upcoming pandemic is boring. Ok I get it.. ;)
:p Come on, NC, can't you dispense with all the wordy scientific gobbledygook? Just tell us if we're all gonna die. And when. ;)

Seriously, that is a scary report. We have to pray that's it's not bound to be historic.
 

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
JC Refuge said:
:p Come on, NC, can't you dispense with all the wordy scientific gobbledygook? Just tell us if we're all gonna die. And when. ;)

:lol: The new virus should hit the United States in 2-3 weeks. Then Fox news might want to talk about it..

No, on a serious note, I am not forcing anyone to be interested with bird flu news. If only one person is interested, I'll still post about it. Looks like I won! :)

JC Refuge said:
Seriously, that is a scary report. We have to pray that's it's not bound to be historic.

It is indeed scary. This could mean 2 things :

We are at phase 6 (Pandemic phase). It's started boys and girls! Enjoy the ride!

Or that the virus is extremely close to that phase..

Again, here are the phases :

-----------------------------------

Interpandemic period

Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
No, on a serious note, I am not forcing anyone to be interested with bird flu news. If only one person is interested, I'll still post about it. Looks like I won!

Has anyone noticed the avian flu thread we've been running for months? :confused:
 

closet squirrel

Veteran Member
Ive said this before, alot of people notice and are interested. Sometimes there just isnt much to add to these articles other than

Oh Sh*t!
 

Burntfish

Inactive
JC Refuge said:
:p Come on, NC, can't you dispense with all the wordy scientific gobbledygook? Just tell us if we're all gonna die. And when. ;)


The answer is yes...we're all going to die! Only God knows when :ld:
 
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