USA My personal warning about the availability of products from China

[Meemur]

I agree with what has been posted and did massive buys in February and early March. Now I'm pulling a list together for next year. I can't buy too much more because I'm keeping cash available for food and emergencies.

My tip: think about raw materials. That is, if you sew, make sure you have fabric and notions. From there, you can make a lot of items. If you are cooking from scratch, make sure you have spices and decent pots and pans.

Added: I have two 5,000 BTU a/c units (one and a spare). I save a ton of money by only cooling the smallest bedroom at night, rather than run the central a/c. I work in my deep basement on really hot days. Disclaimer: during ragweed season, I run the central a/c, but I usually don't have to start it until the last week in July, so I'm only running it for about six weeks, as opposed to all summer.

 

[alpha]

Extremely pertinent post above.

As predicted... the virus will subside... if only a little this summer and the short sighted, rather than using the time wisely, will let the good times roll (again). These ARE the good times. The problems with which we currently deal have only just begun. Our problems are going to get a hell of a lot worse.

It's actually kind of funny that Dennis started this thread because I've been contemplating a new post on my web blog regarding what I perceive to be the future reality here in America. Since the blog is supposed to be about recent events on our farm (It's called "Droppings"), my aim is to focus on livestock... specifically dairy goats. We've had several wonderful young goats for sale for about two months with only limited inquiries from folks with no reading comprehension. The ad explains everything along with a link to our webpage, photo's, genetics etc.
Anyway, if folks were to seriously consider the potential for a major worldwide depression and how that would effect availability of meat, milk, cheese and fertilizer, my ladies would be sold out! It appears that very, very few realize where this new paradigm must lead.
Mind you, I have nothing against cows... I raise them too but the demand for hay and pasture is substantial and their reproductive rate is no where near that of a goat or rabbit. I like to think about sustainability. Later this year when everything hits the fan, John Galt Fla's expression: "Too late!" will be the new normal. I considered starting the blog post with an explanation of Normalcy Bias but don't think it will make a difference.
Oh well, back to mowing the lawn and selecting watch posts...

 

[packyderms_wife]

ETA: Evidently clothing and shoes too.

The issues with clothing extend not just to being produced in China, but that the cotton supply has dried up due to locust invasions in India, Africa, and other nations where we now grow the bulk of our cotton.

FYI if you're a crafter/artist and use mixed media and/or watercolor paper those are made with cotton linters and that's also in short supply right now which is driving prices through the roof.

 

[packyderms_wife]

I’m good at food preps but the “other stuff” , not so much. I don’t know where to start.

What auto items do you think will need to be replaced come this winter, new battery, new belt, new tires? Start there.

What do you need for your furnace for the coming winter? Furnace filters? Get those, and light bulbs while you're at it.

Clothing... what do you need to replace right now that's on sale for a huge discount? Catherines had a flash sale last week 7 bras for $35 and normally their bras run $35 or more each! OC said if I see that kind of flash sale come up again to purchase bras even though I don't need any at the moment! Same thing with Lane Bryant and Dress Barn they have been having huge online sales as I'm sure Old Navy, and other places are also doing right now.

Kitchen items... will you be needing a new coffee pot, dish strainer, dish towels sometime in the next year, start looking now... bread machines, air fryers, and Instant Pots are becoming increasingly harder to find.

Canning and gardening supplies/equipment... if you garden and can, what holes do you have that need to be filled. The weather here in Iowa is absolute crap right now, it never stops raining! I still have half of my garden to get planted and can't because there are puddles in my back yard this afternoon.

Craft supplies, if you knit, crochet, stitch, quilt, paint, etc., what holes do you need to fill? Paintbrushes? Sewing needles?
Sewing machines are also coming up short right now, lots of people are taking up making their own clothes. Do you have the fabrics needed to make your own clothes?

 

[energy_wave]

Maybe the lock down of 100,000,000 people is so they can exterminate dissent and crush support for Hong Kong and Democracy in China.

 

[packyderms_wife]

My central A/C is 23 years old. Doubt it will survive another season.

Going to fire it up for the first time this year and start getting quotations for a new unit.

I think ours went in in 1993, will have to ask OC since I didn't live here at that time but he was living here.

 

[packyderms_wife]

Oh, and keep in mind that most medical supplies are still made in China. Not just the drugs and masks, but also the gauze, tapes, wraps, etc. Get while the getting's good.

For some odd reason late this past winter OC was moved to purchase a good amount of bandages, bandaids, and the like when he was at the pharmacy picking up stuff. Glad we have it on hand now.

 

[homepark]

I keep trying to buy months ahead of need. Bought a window ac unit for the cabin. The old portable for the second floor is on its last legs, but lasted 10 years. I see the ratings of portable units are much more realistic now. I would only use a portable if there is no other option. Except for the dual hose models, they use much more power than an equivalent window unit. I also see that there are u-shaped and their equivalent upside down that hang over the window sill. Still a bit pricey, but are supposedly quieter.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Maybe the lock down of 100,000,000 people is so they can exterminate dissent and crush support for Hong Kong and Democracy in China.

NO ONE in mainland China would dare demonstrate for HK.

 

[billet]

I guess then that Harbor Freights days are numbered.

 

[NCGirl]

I would also suggest vehicle and ag replacement parts. Several manufacturers shut down with the guise of c-virus safety, but actually had no parts to build vehicles, because the parts all come from China. We went and bought a spare matching cheap vehicle for parts

I agree

 

[Silverfox]

I suspect first quarter container shipments arrived around January-Feb, having transited the Pacific. The burgeoning holes in the shelves could be clear signs, second quarter shipments are not arriving. By July, there could be some serious problems here, and elsewhere. What happens if the commies decide to keep what has been produced so, and or ramp up production only for themselves.

Something like a cotter-pin could result in a catastrophic shut down of critical infrastructure until that piece could be made here or gotten elsewhere. Nuke plant part? As for complex chemical ingredients, that isn't something that is simply whipped up if not readily available. You need precursors and process. They do have an advantage and if the lock down over there is not political, the world is in a bad place with most people totally clueless. I know, lots of "could be's" and "possibles". Lots of indicators too.

I just watched a video, short, produced in India. As you may have heard, the Chicomms moved 10k troops, number is actually uncertain but, a lot of troops, to positions over, the border with India, and they are digging defensive positions. Speculation that they did so to intimidate India for inviting production companies to leave China and relocate to India. Together with the recent laws passed regarding HK, and all the bellicose statements issuing from China and the US, Israel ready to annex the Jordan valley- Financial system, ah hell, this is all gettin crazy pills.

 

[nehimama]

Stock up on socks. Buy bras. Get multi packs of underwear (unless you are OK with paying $5 to $10 for EACH pair of underpants.It's all made in China.

I vote to ditch bras altogether.

 

[mzkitty]

I just watched a video, short, produced in India. As you may have heard, the Chicomms moved 10k troops, number is actually uncertain but, a lot of troops, to positions over, the border with India, and they are digging defensive positions. Speculation that they did so to intimidate India for inviting production companies to leave China and relocate to India. Together with the recent laws passed regarding HK, and all the bellicose statements issuing from China and the US, Israel ready to annex the Jordan valley- Financial system, ah hell, this is all gettin crazy pills.

Yes. It's been all over Twitter.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[vestige]

I vote to ditch bras altogether.

Only a boob would do that.

 

[DannyBoy]

I have been doing electrical work lately, adding 20 amp circuits in the garage... Menards is running very low on boxes, and receptacles... you have to buy the good stuff now. Cheap ones are gone.

 

[packyderms_wife]

If it was me, which it was when I moved down here to FL last year and we could hardly bring anything, so starting over -- get things like shoes and spare underwear, a new toaster and coffee maker, a hand mixer, little other appliances like that -- just so you have a spare. Fresh toiletries, disposable razors, stuff like that. Extra spices that you don't open until really needed. I have found with coffee makers, you never know when they'll croak or you break the glass beaker (I had one deliberately fly out of my hands once, LOL). If there's things you don't have a lot of like Tupperwear, get that too. Those things are not too expensive. Also, I got a new scale in Tarjay - it was cheap, like $8. What a deal. Works good too. Get a spare mop and carpet sweeper or vacuum, doesn't have to be the top of the line models. Just look around and say what can I live without if I don't duplicate it. It will be obvious to you.

The nice thing about wooden floors is they can be swept, instead of vacuumed. Granted the vacuum cleaner is great when the pets shed all at once, but it's not a huge necessity for us.

 

[packyderms_wife]

The mixed messages is getting to be really maddening. 100 million on lockdown in China but shoulder to shoulder crowded beaches and bars in SC. Masks required in retail stores in some states....and not in others. SIGH.

Are international passenger flights FROM China to the US still effectively cancelled?

Funny mention about central air replacement. I just re-invested my stimulus back into the economy by replacing my vintage ~1980's era/effective 4 or 5 SEER unit at my house. Had to make some basement damper adjustments as it was getting cold enough to hang meat down there!

I agree with Searcher, the 100 million lockdown in China is political in nature, not health related.

 

[prudentwatcher]

Tellin' ya. Can't emphasize that enough. When I went to get even more spare pantie packs at Tarjay a couple of weeks ago, they had exactly ONE pack left in my size of the style I like. Mine's a popular size, so I can partially understand, but I've never seen the racks so bare before. Oh, they had tons of size 5, but who wears that but tiny women? And socks there? Forget it, and men's wasn't much better. As I mentioned somewhere else, I finally found a 10-pack of little white sockies in my grocery store, of all places (or rather my son found them for me).

I suppose we'll have to go roam Wallyworld for these items to see what's left there, but that involves a car trip on the expressway, which neither of us like. Wah. I'm not going to the department stores because those items are generally m.ore expensive there, and they don't have my favorite brands anymore either.

I was just at Walmart and they were pretty much out of men's underwear and kid's underwear. Didn't check the ladies as I didn't go down that section.

I ordered all my stuff early. Have tons of undies and socks (unopened packages) stuffing the drawers of my dresser and nightstand. I might have to buy more underwear before I die, but I think I will probably be good on socks for the rest of my life!!! I also have plenty of jeans, tshirts, sweats, lightweight fleece jackets, and regular shirts (I live in Florida, so nothing needed for super cold, though I do have heavy jackets). And shoes, now that I bought some boots and slippers today and have boxes of sneakers that I ordered a month or so ago packed away in the closet. Not going into SHTF naked!!!

 

[packyderms_wife]

I was just at Walmart and they were pretty much out of men's underwear and kid's underwear. Didn't check the ladies as I didn't go down that section.

I ordered all my stuff early. Have tons of undies and socks (unopened packages) stuffing the drawers of my dresser and nightstand. I might have to buy more underwear before I die, but I think I will probably be good on socks for the rest of my life!!! I also have plenty of jeans, tshirts, sweats, lightweight fleece jackets, and regular shirts (I live in Florida, so nothing needed for super cold, though I do have heavy jackets). And shoes, now that I bought some boots and slippers today and have boxes of sneakers that I ordered a month or so ago packed away in the closet. Not going into SHTF naked!!!

I've gone back to wearing my "old stuff" that I kept when I replaced them with new last fall... yeah I have concerns and really don't want to have to go commando.

 

[Hermantribe]

For those of you concerned with your AC ... they now make a portable AC unit. The thing is on wheels and can be moved from room to room as needed. Hubby bought one yesterday to leave here at the BOL. We've arrived a few times to find the HVAC system out for whatever reason. This will be a back up for here. I wasn't part of the purchase so I don't know the cost but I think it has 10,000 BTUs and it was easy to set up and cooled down two upstairs rooms very quickly. It is 110 power so will work with a gennie. Giving serious consideration to getting a couple more ... one for our primary location and one or two for the business in case we have older tenants in distress. It will be a matter of finding a way to secure them as they roll away quickly.

ETA: It is a Toshiba brand. $379.00 10,000 BTU. On wheels. Straight cool (no heat). They have other ones that cost less, my hubby just likes toshiba and it was recommended by a friend.

Some brands go all the way up to 14,000 BTU

I know the window shakers might be a better option for some folks. We like this one because it is not something you have to install in a window which can be problematic, especially due to weight, window frame issues, and if you have to install braces, etc.

I saw these at Home Depot yesterday. Pretty cool! (pun intended)

 

[parsonswife]

Went to a different walmart invanother town to check out the kitchen appliances to see if they also were out of stock. They have moved the whole section for a reset. Only item in really hood supply was insta pots. They have adjusted their shelves so it will not look so barren

Fabric is really out. As well as copy machines tablets tvs. Also out of generators and power washers

 

[mzkitty]

I was just at Walmart and they were pretty much out of men's underwear and kid's underwear. Didn't check the ladies as I didn't go down that section.

I ordered all my stuff early. Have tons of undies and socks (unopened packages) stuffing the drawers of my dresser and nightstand. I might have to buy more underwear before I die, but I think I will probably be good on socks for the rest of my life!!! I also have plenty of jeans, tshirts, sweats, lightweight fleece jackets, and regular shirts (I live in Florida, so nothing needed for super cold, though I do have heavy jackets). And shoes, now that I bought some boots and slippers today and have boxes of sneakers that I ordered a month or so ago packed away in the closet. Not going into SHTF naked!!!

LOL, you are awesome !! Thanks for the heads-up on Wallyworld. Just as I thought -- skimpy over there too.

 

[Garryowen]

Thanks for jinxing it, everybody; me and the folks started up OUR ACs recently and discovered the compressors aren't firing. Now we've got repair calls in, but no word on when they can make it out, as yet.

Ah well...better to get it repaired now than not be able to at all later.

If the compressor won't start, I would first check the capacitor and the relay. If the compressor is outside, check for mouse nests, or wires chewed off. You can probably splice or replace a broken wire. Capacitors and relays are fairly cheap.

 

[mecoastie]

It's actually kind of funny that Dennis started this thread because I've been contemplating a new post on my web blog regarding what I perceive to be the future reality here in America. Since the blog is supposed to be about recent events on our farm (It's called "Droppings"), my aim is to focus on livestock... specifically dairy goats. We've had several wonderful young goats for sale for about two months with only limited inquiries from folks with no reading comprehension. The ad explains everything along with a link to our webpage, photo's, genetics etc.
Anyway, if folks were to seriously consider the potential for a major worldwide depression and how that would effect availability of meat, milk, cheese and fertilizer, my ladies would be sold out! It appears that very, very few realize where this new paradigm must lead.
Mind you, I have nothing against cows... I raise them too but the demand for hay and pasture is substantial and their reproductive rate is no where near that of a goat or rabbit. I like to think about sustainability. Later this year when everything hits the fan, John Galt Fla's expression: "Too late!" will be the new normal. I considered starting the blog post with an explanation of Normalcy Bias but don't think it will make a difference.
Oh well, back to mowing the lawn and selecting watch posts...

Around here chicks have been hard to get for a while. Places get them in and then they are gone quickly. The prices have gone up dramatically for even the barnyard mix that a lot of people sell around here. I see them going for 4$ ea straight run. Rabbits seem to have jumped considerably in demand and price. Piglets are hard to get and more expensive if you can get them.

On another note I just got back from HD. Had to get some electrical connectors. As luck would have it they had 2 packages of the ones I needed but almost all the other ones were sold out. They are just the little female spade ones. There were next to no cordless batteries avail and the power tool section was pretty beat. I didn't check appliances or any other section. Maybe they had a Memorial Day sale on tools and I wasn't paying attention but I thought the electrical connectors was an odd thing to be out of.

 

[packyderms_wife]

LOL, you are awesome !! Thanks for the heads-up on Wallyworld. Just as I thought -- skimpy over there too.

If you're buying Hanes or Fruit of the Loom brands you can order those directly online and even through Amazon Prime. OC wears the stuff from JC Penney and that's going to be an issue if I have to resupply for him.

 

[twobarkingdogs]

Went grocery shopping this morning and noticed that Walmart actually had a chest freezer for sale. A small one at 7 cubefoot but it was there. It was on the shelve with the dorm frig's so if you want a small freezer start looking in that area when you are shopping.

Everything else in this thread I agree with.

I previously posted about what an homedepot store applicance person told me about inventory levels being low for stoves when I was shopping for a stove a couple of weeks ago. And this past weekend my higher up retail contacts say that imports are running at levels well below normal. For office dwellers in a $100billion retail company to say this usually means something is up.

So previously given advice about taking your own inventory levels and stocking up might be considered as being good advice.

tbd

 

[seraphima]

Went to Walmart for a new crock pot- that shelf was seriously depleted there; however I did find one. Still no new puzzles since February! I have a regular list to restock whenever i go there- good chocolate, anti-itch creme, cat or dog supplies, organic potting soil if they have it (not today).

 

[nomifyle]

I, too, went to walmart today. Only one microwave besides the display. Laptops were scarce, but I bought one of the few they had. Its a brand that I've never heard of, ASUS Vivobook, and has a touch screen and the dreaded windows 10. They said I can return it, so we'll see. My current computer is okay, but crashed awhile back and for the life of me I cannot get a printer loaded on it.

There was a fair amount of toilet paper and paper towels, of which I certainly do not need any. Actually I don't need anything. I did look at water hoses, they had a good supply. Have to ask DH if we could use another one just in case, before buying one and I did not see any replacement fix it parts.

Their beef prices were rediculous, on the other hand the good grass fed beef was the regular price, although a little higher than normal for the crap beef. I guess people are too stupid to check out the prices on the good beef. Before I had the opportunity to eat venison I always bought the grass fed and used it more as a condiment in a stir fry.

Judy

 

[Laurane]

One of my husband's medications has one ingredients that comes from China.....others from France. It is always in short supply and he has to only get a partial refill. But now, there is nothing in stock. I got the last two generic bottles substitutes (also from China).

Haven't checked the source of all the rest of them.

 

[rafter]

Also went to Walmart today. I noticed that they had things today that they haven't had all year. Quite a few new gas grills. In fact the steel was full. Also had some patio furniture for the first time. I also saw pallets of box fans that they haven't had. They must be finding stuff from somewhere. I figure that Walmart won't sit on their hands and just go without things to sell...they will find someone else to make their stuff....

 

[nehimama]

Next on my list is a couple of box fans - just in case. My house has central air/heat, but doesn't get as cool as I'd like. I need a cool bedroom for sleeping in the summertime, so have ordered a window AC unit from Lowe's, to be delivered in 1 - 4 business days. (There were 57 in stock of the type and brand I ordered .)

Ha! Just got an email advising me it'll be here tomorrow.

 

[BassMan]

Are shortages getting steadily worse, or is it more of a consistent, steady, reduction in availability?

Back in February, I was filling holes in my inventory, expecting TEOTWAWKI re: availability of goods. Thus far, though, it seems like more like ongoing intermittent shortages rather than continuously worsening supply.

Just wondering what the aggregate trend is that people see. The boss has me wondering now in the OP...

 

[Chance]

Thanks, Dennis.

I've been wondering if maybe China didn't go nuts on their flu vaccine last winter - putting everything in it.

I remember when they opened their BSL-4 in Wuhan - they said they wanted to show the world they can do their own research on coronaviruses and make vaccines.

Since their big cities/manufacturing/pharmaceutical hubs were hit so hard, that's where they would have mandated flu vaccines. The big populated areas.

Italy got hit hard and their flu vaccine contained H1N1....crossreacting coronavirus antibodies from vaccine/COVID can wreck some serious havoc on lung tissue per my friend Doc.

I think China did this to themselves with a double whammy - COVID and a super duper flu vaccine. That's why they've been hit harder than any other country.

Just my thoughts.

 

[AlfaMan]

I would also suggest vehicle and ag replacement parts. Several manufacturers shut down with the guise of c-virus safety, but actually had no parts to build vehicles, because the parts all come from China. We went and bought a spare matching cheap vehicle for parts

Volkswagens-if you have a newish VW stock up on what you can. Motor mounts, relays, headlight assemblies etc. VW uses a TON of Chinese products in their "German engineered" (hahahaha) vehicles. Best bud has a newer Passat; dropped off an automotive "care package" two weeks ago for his car. Toyota is another one; Honda to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, BMW and Mercedes too.

And I wholeheartedly agree with picking up extra underwear and socks. If WalMart has them cheap stock up now. And work boots-WalMart sells a great sneaker type steel toed shoe I like for work-at 25 bucks a pair stocked up on those too.

 

[CathyC]

DO NOT get the window shakers that can only be controlled with a remote control. As a landlord I can tell you those are a disaster.

What is a window shaker?
And do you know if the portable ACs with wheels come in less than 10,000 BTU?

 

[mzkitty]

Next on my list is a couple of box fans - just in case. My house has central air/heat, but doesn't get as cool as I'd like I need a cool bedroom for sleeping in the summertime, so have ordered a window AC unit from Lowe's, to be delivered in 1 - 4 business days. (There were 57 in stock of the type and brand I ordered .)

Ha! Just got an email advising me it'll be here tomorrow.

CVS has box fans. And other kinds. We bought a box fan for $30. Look up though, if they're not out on the floor; ours were sitting on a shelf high above the freezer items. Good thing my kid is tall.

 

[AlfaMan]

One of my husband's medications has one ingredients that comes from China.....others from France. It is always in short supply and he has to only get a partial refill. But now, there is nothing in stock. I got the last two generic bottles substitutes (also from China).

Haven't checked the source of all the rest of them.

Good idea. Some of the meds I take come from Japan, one from Ireland, another from India. CVS ready refill refilled every single prescription I take (11 total) Saturday when I asked them to; probably have 6 month supplies on near everything now. Interesting note-in VA opioid prescriptions are one time no refills, must be presented as a paper prescription etc. They refilled my Tramadol prescription this weekend too!

 

[Grouchy Granny]

Only a boob would do that.

\

Only if you don't have them and have Coopers Droop! Sheesh - you gotta be a guy with a comment like that (not trying to be mean).

Used to not have them and could go bra-less - not in old age, sorry pal! Need the extra support for the girls.

 

[Kathy in FL]

What is a window shaker?
And do you know if the portable ACs with wheels come in less than 10,000 BTU?

Window shakers are a common name for window AC units. Sorry about that. LOL

And yes, the portable ACs do come in less than 10,000 BTUs. You can look at them at both the Home Depot and Lowe's websites to get the specs on specific ones.

Hope this helps.