WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

jward

passin' thru
I guess the ME sites are all running with the "Israel has begun an offensive against Iran" but it's less than clear that is going to be the overt takeaway when the (literal) smoke clears. (n I did bad, I thought this would happen weeks ago) :: shrug ::

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
1h
Multiple Middle Eastern Media Sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been Officially Announced by the Israeli Government or Military.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I guess the ME sites are all running with the "Israel has begun an offensive against Iran" but it's less than clear that is going to be the overt takeaway when the (literal) smoke clears. (n I did bad, I thought this would happen weeks ago) :: shrug ::

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
1h
Multiple Middle Eastern Media Sources tonight are reporting that Israel has launched a Military Operation against Iran but so far nothing has been Officially Announced by the Israeli Government or Military.

Ok for discussion let's take a look at this assuming that this was in fact a drone attack.

First question is where was it initiated from? Was it a direct flight from Israel, a point just outside of the border of Iran or from within Iranian territory itself? One reason why this question is key is it sets the minimum size of the drone and the maximum payload deliverable. Another is it gets into the capabilities and vulnerabilities of the Iranian IADS/BMD network as well as just their border security and Israeli intelligence and targeting capabilities.

Case in point....(I'm having trouble getting the demonstration video link to show in the post. HC)
_________________________________________________
Posted for fair use.....

Israeli firm unveils new attack drone that can land back in soldier’s hand​

State-owned IAI says it has been awarded multi-million-dollar contract to develop variant of Point Blank loitering munition for US Department of Defense​

By EMANUEL FABIAN 19 January 2023, 2:32 pm










0 seconds of 51 secondsVolume 90%





The state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries arms firm on Thursday unveiled a new small hand-launched loitering missile, or attack drone, that can land back in a soldier’s hand without exploding, the company said.

The announcement came as IAI had been awarded a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract with the United States Department of Defense to develop a version of the missile for the American market.

The device, dubbed Point Blank, is a small electro-optically guided missile that can be carried in a soldier’s backpack. It can be launched and operated by a single soldier.

Loitering munitions are also known as “suicide drones” or “kamikaze drones.”
In a video published by IAI (above), the device is seen being launched by a person, before it flies across the sky into a van that was placed as a target.

According to IAI, the device weighs about 6.8 kilograms (15 pounds) and is about 90 centimeters (3 feet) long. It can fly at altitudes above 460 meters (1,500 feet), at a maximum speed of 286 kilometers per hour (178 mph), and can hover in the air while the operator confirms a target’s nature and exact position.

The device includes electro-optical systems to validate and collect surveillance information in real-time, as well as a warhead in order to destroy a target, it said.

If the operator decides not to attack, the device can be flown back and land in their hand safely, according to IAI.
“The system answers the battlefield requirement to provide tactical units ranging in size from small tactical teams to battalion level, with an independent and organic capability to increase their lethality,” IAI said in a statement.

The Point Blank variant being developed for the US Department of Defense is dubbed ROC-X, and first prototypes and training would be provided in the coming fiscal year, the company said.

IAI develops and manufactures advanced systems for air, space, sea, land, cyber and homeland security. Since 1953, the company has provided technology solutions to government and commercial customers worldwide, including satellites, missiles, weapon systems and munitions, unmanned and robotic systems, and radar.

------------------------------------------------------

If IDF capabilities mesh through any gaps within Iranian capabilities with regards to drones, it may allow for an "operational kill" of the Iranian nuclear program short of a full up strike by the targeting and striking of the infrastructure the utilities and logistical chain required for that program to operate. That could be what we are seeing with these reports from Isfahan.
 
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jward

passin' thru
The only location I read floated in my quick scanning earlier was Azerbaijan, and an attempt (not necessarily convincingly) was being made to tie it to the incident below:



FJ
@Natsecjeff

One killed & two others wounded when an attacker opened fire on a guard post outside Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said. The attacker broke through the guard post, killing the head of security with an assault rifle.

Iranian police said a suspect was arrested. Iranian news agency Tasnim cited the Tehran police chief as saying the suspect entered the premises with two young children and may have been motivated by "personal issues."
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani security sources claim that the Iranian intelligence is likely directly behind the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran and the aim was to target several embassy employees.

Iran's FM has condemned the attack, saying that the incident is under investigation. Turkish FM has a phone call with his Azeri counterpart where he also condemned the attack. Ukraine's FM has also condemned the attack.
View: https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1618894872177516544?s=20

BREAKING: Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry announces the country will evacuate its embassy in Tehran following today's attack.

REMINDER: Just earlier this month, Iran's IRGC threatened Azerbaijan with a “decisive reaction”. Today, the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran was attacked. Azerbaijan is now evacuating the embassy.
https://asbarez.com/iran-issues-st
Embassy CCTV footage:
View: https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1618894224551989248?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru

Iran Claims It Has Come Under Drone Attack Following Explosions​


Stetson Payne​


This is a rapidly developing story and details are bound to change, but as it sits now, explosions rocked an Iranian Ministry of Defense ammunition plant in the central Iranian city of Isfahan amid reports of blasts in three other cities.
Video captured one of the explosions in Isfahan as security forces swarmed the area around the facility. The Iranian Ministry of Defense later claimed three drones targeted the installation in a “failed attack” that caused no casualties and damaged only the building’s rooftop.

An Iranian MoD statement released through state-run IRNA news agency claimed air defenses destroyed one drone and "defense traps" caught two other drones, per a Reuters report.
Not long after the initial reports from Isfahan, however, unconfirmed videos emerged claiming to show a massive fire at a fuel facility near the city of Azarshahr in East Azerbaijan Province.

Explosions were also reported in Karaj in Alborz Province and near the city of Khoy in West Azerbaijan Province.
At this time, The War Zone is unable to confirm Iranian claims. There are further unconfirmed reports of air activity out of Tehran’s Mehrabad Air Base, which houses Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force aircraft, after a reported unknown aircraft was spotted flying over the Iranian capital.

This is a breaking news story. Check back with The War Zone for updates.
Contact the author: stetson.payne@thewarzone.com
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Iran Claims It Has Come Under Drone Attack Following Explosions​


Stetson Payne​


This is a rapidly developing story and details are bound to change, but as it sits now, explosions rocked an Iranian Ministry of Defense ammunition plant in the central Iranian city of Isfahan amid reports of blasts in three other cities.
Video captured one of the explosions in Isfahan as security forces swarmed the area around the facility. The Iranian Ministry of Defense later claimed three drones targeted the installation in a “failed attack” that caused no casualties and damaged only the building’s rooftop.

An Iranian MoD statement released through state-run IRNA news agency claimed air defenses destroyed one drone and "defense traps" caught two other drones, per a Reuters report.
Not long after the initial reports from Isfahan, however, unconfirmed videos emerged claiming to show a massive fire at a fuel facility near the city of Azarshahr in East Azerbaijan Province.

Explosions were also reported in Karaj in Alborz Province and near the city of Khoy in West Azerbaijan Province.
At this time, The War Zone is unable to confirm Iranian claims. There are further unconfirmed reports of air activity out of Tehran’s Mehrabad Air Base, which houses Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force aircraft, after a reported unknown aircraft was spotted flying over the Iranian capital.

This is a breaking news story. Check back with The War Zone for updates.
Contact the author: stetson.payne@thewarzone.com

Hummm.....

Considering how slowly this is rolling out, I'm kind of surprised that they're apparently only going after logistical and manufacturing targets and not the sensor nodes of the Iranian air defenses, of course they may be and it's not being reported at this time.

If they in fact aren't conducting SEAD/DEAD, targeted C3IR strikes or counter force strikes, that may mean that whomever "they" are don't intend to escalate this beyond pinprick attacks against specific defense related industrial sites.

ETA: We've been assuming that the Israelis are involved where it may be the GCC or others in combination. Tehran hasn't been making many friends of late outside of their normal circle.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
And to add some more possible inputs to this brewing mess.....

Posted for fair use.....

US charges three men in Iran-backed assassination attempt of prominent critic
Sean Beeghly | U. Pittsburgh School of Law, US
JANUARY 28, 2023 08:30:54 PM

In a sealed indictment, the US Attorney General Friday charged three men in connection with an alleged assassination attempt of a well-known critic of Iran’s government on US soil.

Rafat Amirov, Polad Omarov and Khalid Mehdiyev face three federal charges: murder for hire, conspiracy to commit murder for hire and money laundering conspiracy. The charges carry a maximum combined sentence of 40 years imprisonment. Mehdiyev faces an additional five years for an unlawful possession of a defaced firearm charge. Court documents do not name the intended victim.

Amirov and Omarov allegedly recruited Mehdiyev, a US citizen, in July 2022. The group called themselves the “Thieves-in-Law” and have suspected ties to Iran. The prosecution contends that Amirov directed Mehdiyev to surveil the intended victim’s New York City home and formulate a way to lure them out. After completing his surveillance, Mehdiyev received $30,000 as an advanced payment and to purchase an assault rifle. Mehdiyev attempted several times to lure the victim to the door without success. Upon witnessing what they thought was suspicious activity, the victim left their home. Police later stopped Mehdiyev for a traffic violation. Officers found the assault rife with destroyed serial number and arrested Mehdiyev on federal firearm charges.

Amirov and Omarov are both currently in detention. Amirov was arrest in New York in January, and the Czech Republic detained Omarov. Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division commended the arrests. He said, “foreign actors who plot violence on our soil believing they are out of our reach, know that we will pursue you, wherever you may be, until we deliver justice.”

The alleged assassination plot is not the first attempt by Iran to harm the unidentified victim. Iranian officials allegedly attempted to bribe the victim’s family members living in Iran to lure them to a third country to be kidnapped and deport to Iran for execution. Another 2021 failed kidnapping featured several individuals procuring “military-style” speedboats. They allegedly intended to carry the victim to Venezuela for deportation to Iran. The victim has been outspoken on recent protests and killings in Iran.
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Note:

Claim 3 bogies inbound and ONE was splashed, doesn't speak well for your functional defenses. Unless of course someone ELSE knows the in-bound numbers were VERY different...
 

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport
4m

Al-Arabiya, citing sources:

The U.S. and "another country" are involved in the UAV attack on a military plant in Iran’s Isfahan.

The purpose of the UAV attack on the facility of the Iranian Ministry of Defence was a warehouse with ballistic missiles.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

According to U.S Intelligence Officials the Drone Attack last night on the Iranian City of Isfahan was carried out by the Israeli Air Force utilizing at least 3 Attack Drones which were used to target a factory that was used in the manufacturing of Advanced Missile Systems.
These same Intelligence Officials however denied that U.S Forces were involved at all with the Attack.

12:10 PM · Jan 29, 2023
·1,387
Views
 

jward

passin' thru
Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
1h

NEW: The strike on Iran's MoD facility in Isfahan was “specific, surgical & successful”, sources with direct knowledge told me. They added the facility was connected to Iran’s missile program: “4 different areas in the building were accurately targeted & the goal was achieved"



War Monitor
@WarMonitors

⚡⚡️The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament: We are discussing the attack on Isfahan in preparation for taking decisions — Al Arabiya

10:39 AM · Jan 29, 2023
·41.8K
Views
 

jward

passin' thru

Blinken: All options available to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon​


Al Arabiya English​


US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said on Sunday that Iran has rejected the current proposal to return to the nuclear agreement, adding that Washington still believes that diplomacy is the most effective way to deal with the Iranian nuclear file.
Blinken said in an exclusive interview with Al-Arabiya that Iranian youth are defending their basic rights in the face of Tehran’s regime, adding that US focus now is on the Iranian regime's suppression of its people in the streets.

‘We support the Iranian people’​

Blinken highlighted US support to Iranian people, stressing that the decision of “regime change” remains ultimately up to the people. He added: “The Iranian regime is convincing its people of the idea that the US wants regime change.”
In addition, he stressed that Iran supports Russia in its war against Ukraine and provides it with drones and other weapons, expressing his concern about Tehran providing Moscow with drones and missiles.

‘All options are available’​

He stressed that US President Joe Biden stressed his determination that Iran not acquire nuclear weapons, explaining that all options are available on the table to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
He pointed out that Washington has punished all those responsible for repression in Iran, stressing that his country continues to search for ways to disrupt Iran's malign activities.

‘Deterring aggressors’​

Blinken also said that the main goal of US military efforts was deterring aggressors, specifically the US military exercises with Israel.
He announced that he would hold talks with the Israelis and Palestinians to reduce the escalating tensions.

‘Important relationships’​

As for the Saudi-American ties, Blinken said that the relations between his country and the Kingdom have been important and ongoing for decades, noting that Saudi Arabia has provided great support to Ukraine in the face of the Russian war.
He said that Saudi Arabia voted against the Russian war in Ukraine before the UN General Assembly, stressing the need for relations with Saudi Arabia to reflect common interests and values.
He also said: “We were worried about the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production.”
He reaffirmed that Washington is working with Riyadh to end the war in Yemen.

 

jward

passin' thru
Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
3h

#UPDATE
Israel carried out a clandestine drone strike targeting a defense compound in #Iran, as the U.S. and Israel look for new ways to contain Tehran’s nuclear and military ambitions, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the operation.
View: https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1619721151927799811?s=20


#UPDATE
Debunking #Iran IRGC's claims
—"specific, surgical & successful"
—"connected to Iran’s missile program"
[Note—Iran has been seeking to sell ballistic missiles to Russia. Two birds with one stone?]
—"4 different areas" - More drones involved?
View: https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1619753621062832128?s=20


#Iran's state TV claims air defense units fired at the quadcopters while another exploded in an "air defense trap".
Isfahan provincial official: explosion "heard" was from air defense units "hitting" the quadcopter
Another quadcopter armed with small bombs hit the roof...
... of a Defense Ministry complex and explodes. #Iran's forces used electronic warfare to take control of this quadcopter.
Defense Ministry: This unsuccessful had attack had no casualties and only caused minor roof damage. Work continues at the site.
View: https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1619768220784943104?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
interesting to see that the J.Post references THE DRIVES material


Drone attack on Iranian ammunition plant: What do we know so far?​


By SETH J. FRANTZMAN​


An Iranian defense ministry facility that includes storage or manufacturing of arms, exploded this weekend in the Iranian city of Isfahan. Iran claimed this was a “failed attack,” but videos shared online show that more happened.
Iran continues to supply drones to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine and they are also a major threat to the Middle East. Because the explosion coincided with an earthquake in northwest Iran some of the videos posted online may have incorrectly linked apparent drone attacks near Isfahan with the earthquake that occurred 1,000 km. away.
Reports circulating on social media suggested a number of reasons for the incidents, linking it to Iran’s supplying of drones to Russia as well as Iran’s tensions both with Israel and the international community.

The drone attack on Iranian facility in Isfahan

The Wall Street Journal wrote that “Israel carried out a clandestine drone strike targeting a defense compound in Iran… according to US officials and people familiar with the operation.”
According to UAE-based Al-Ain media, the Iranian defense ministry said that “small drones targeted one of the centers” at around 11 p.m. on Saturday. “Fortunately, with predictions and defensive measures, the air defense system of the complex managed to detonate two planes at the top of the complex, while the third caused minor damage to the market of the military complex affiliated with the ministry,” the Iranian report said, according to Al-Ain.


One of the incidents may have happened on Imam Khomeini Street in Isfahan, a major thoroughfare in the 12th district of the city.
Iran has admitted that “some damage to the roof” occurred but claims that the incident has not resulted in any disruption of operations, apparently in contrast to other reports that described three large explosions.
Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), wrote on its Telegram channel that three explosions were heard in the city of Isfahan, one of which was in an ammunition manufacturing center affiliated with the defense ministry. According to the report, there were casualties.

So, Iran is scrambling to figure out what happened and to win control of the narrative. A political source in Isfahan told media that there were no injuries and that “the nature of this accident is being investigated, while the rescue and security forces present at the site are dispersing the crowd present at the scene,” Al-Ain noted. The report also says that anti-aircraft fire was heard near Imam Khomeini Street.

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) in Iran has said that one of the alleged drones used in the attack was hit by air defense fire while another caused damage to a roof of a facility. There was also a fire near a factory in the northern city of Tabriz.

The Drive, an automotive news site, compiled most of the known open-source information about the incidents, including videos, tweets and the geo-locations of various sites.
A video from Tehran apparently shows a glowing light in the sky in the West Azerbaijan province. An earthquake occurred in West Azerbaijan and it’s unclear if these reports got confused with the drone attack reports.
Iranian media said that the area of Khoy, near Azerbaijan was affected by the earthquake on Saturday night. Khoy is located 1,000 km. from Isfahan.

The Drive’s ‘The War Zone’ said it was “unable to confirm Iranian claims. There are further unconfirmed reports of air activity out of Tehran’s Mehrabad Air Base, which houses Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force aircraft after a reported unknown aircraft was spotted flying over the Iranian capital.”
AP noted that “footage of the strike, as well as footage of the aftermath, corresponded to a site on Minoo Street in northwestern Isfahan that’s near a shopping center that includes a carpet and an electronics store.” That report says that the site in Isfahan “is home to both a large air base built for its fleet of American-made F-14 fighter jets and its Nuclear Fuel Research and Production Center.”

Was the attack linked to Iran's supply of drones to Russia?

Over the past several years, Iran has expanded its drone and missile manufacturing facilities. Jason Brodsky, a Middle East analyst and expert on Iran, tweeted: “This operation tonight targeting the MODAFL facility in Isfahan had a similar modus operandi to the one from June 2021 which attacked the TESA Karaj facility. In the latter, the drones were launched from inside Iran.”
Iran has also continued to enrich uranium as part of its nuclear program at several sites in the country. The various reports, including out of Iran International, indicate the site in Isfahan was an “ammunition” facility.
Does that mean it was making munitions or storing them? It’s not clear yet.
A drone is launched during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in this handout image obtained on August 25, 2022 (credit: VIA REUTERS)

Other reports claimed that the site also manufactures drones. If true, this would be an interesting case of drones being used to destroy drones.
Iran has numerous facilities linked to its drone programs, including sites in southern Iran at Chabahar and Qashm islands. Iran has been accused of using its Kashan base north of the city of Isfahan for training with drones. It has invited terror and militant groups from the region to train at that site.
Kashan, however, is some 200 km. north of Isfahan. It is not clear if there is any linkage between the reports on Saturday evening and Sunday morning and the Kashan site.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....

Iranian Bank Report Reveals Shady Lending, Huge Losses​

28 minutes ago 3 minutes
Author: Iran International Newsroom

A new report says an Iranian governmental bank has given over 150 trillion rials – roughly $500 million – in loans to foreign entities likely to those of Lebanon, Syria, and Venezuela.

Bank Melli Iran, known as the first national and commercial retail bank of Iran, has recently published an advertorial on its financial statements for the first six months of the Iranian year (started March 21, 2022) as a way to promulgate its achievements and advertise the conduct of its manager, Mohammad-Reza Farzin who was recently appointed the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI).

In February 2022, Farzin had claimed that the accumulated losses of the bank fell from $2.3 billion to $2.2 billion (based on exchange rate at the time) with him at the helm.

However, according to the 99-page report, the accumulated losses of the bank increased again in 2022 to roughly $2.5 billion.

Despite these losses, by late July of last year, the bank had paid over 182 trillion rials (roughly about $600 million) of loans to individuals and companies abroad. The figure was about 20 trillion rials in the previous year. Considering the sanctions and the lack of access to SWIFT banking system, it seems that these funds are mostly related to countries like Venezuela, Syria and Lebanon, wrote economic journalist Hirsh Saidian in an article published on Aftab News on Saturday. The report said that from March to July about 18 trillion rials – or about $60 million – was paid to a small bank called the Federal Bank of Lebanon, which seems to be under US sanctions.

The bank has not yet confirmed or denied this issue, nor provided any details about the recipients of the funds. In addition to lack of transparency in the country’s banking system, the government has been criticized for giving free aid to projects in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon and Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen despite high inflation and lack of investment in Iran's own domestic projects.

Lebanese media reported late in December that Hezbollah is facing financial problems due to the current protests across Iran, as it cannot import Iranian goods to sell at a discount to its supporters. Makram Rabah, a Lebanese political activist, emphasized in an interview with Iran International that the consequences of the uprising of Iranians against the regime could now be seen in Lebanon. He said the dire situation of the Islamic Republic, as the biggest financial and political supporter of Hezbollah, causes this group to lose the ability to stand on its own feet.

The Bank Melli report did not elaborate on why and how a bank with such a huge amount of loss is still providing loans to entities linked with its proxy forces in the region. The report provides a rare glimpse into the opaque workings of Iranian banks, which usually serve the foreign and domestic policies of the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, some experts have claimed that the accumulated loss of the bank is actually 2 quadrillion rials (over $6 billion), which has been the result of years of corruption, mismanagement and giving loans to influential people and projects without economic justification, the article added. Such losses have caused banks to rely more on the resources of the central bank, making it print money that fuels the over 50-percent inflation rate.
 

jward

passin' thru

Iranian Explosions: Implications And Impact On Oil​


by Tyler Durden​


Authored by Wouter Schmit Jongbloed via 'Money: Inside and Out' blog,
Overnight, the sky over Iran was lit up by at least two explosions targeting military production facilities: one in Isfahan and one in Tabriz. Whether the two explosions are connected remains unclear as the Isfahan target appears to have been an “ammunitions” factory and the explosion in Tabriz occurred at a motor oil factory. Some sources (here) suggest the list of targets hit might be larger and include the Headquarters of the IRGC and some other military targets.

While no party has claimed direct responsibility for the explosions, Senior Ukrainian spokesperson Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted "War logic is inexorable & murderous. It bills the authors & accomplices strictly. Explosive night in Iran - drone & missile production, oil refineries. Did warn you."
While drones can be launched from any platform without much infrastructure, it is worth noting that the most common Iranian suicide drones have a range of roughly 2500km and the distance between Kherson, Ukraine, and Isfahan, Iran, is approximately 2600km — so barely in tentative range.

The regime in Teheran is, somewhat predictably, down-playing the impact of the explosions, noting of the Isfahan attack that one drone was shot down "and the other two were caught in defense traps and blew up. [The attack] caused only minor damage to the roof of a workshop building. There were no casualties."
At the start of the Asian open, oil markets might be primed to price higher risks to oil supplies out of concern that: (i) Ukraine war might be spilling over into Middle East, (ii) Iran might seek retaliation in the region, or (iii) general unrest in oil producing countries is bad news for supply.

As Iran seems to be downplaying the attacks and no clear culprit has been identified (despite Ukraine’s early response), any spike in oil prices could be driven initially by algorithmic trades immediately at the open and thus likely to fade as more information becomes available.
To reiterate:

1/ it doesn't seem oil production facilities were the target;
2/ even past attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure such as by Yemeni militants (with Iranian backing) in 2019 had a limited impact on oil prices beyond the very short term. 3/ Iran is a marginal producer (though admittedly the market is petty tight)

Will Oil Prices Spike as Markets Price Increased Destabilization?

Previous episodes of violence and explosions involving oil producing countries has led markets to price supply concerns. In somewhat comparable situations, such as Yemen’s missile strikes against Saudi Arabia for instance in March 2022, the oil price reaction function seemed driven in large part out of concern for escalation.

In the current circumstances, three risk avenues could drive market concern:
(i) Ukraine War Spill Over to Middle East
As we do not have a clear sense of responsibility for the explosions in Iran, it’s too early to assume Iran is being targeted as a function of the War in Ukraine; other possible agents include domestic groups behind recent protests and, of course, Israel — though the type of relatively unsophisticated and ineffectual strike makes direct Israeli involvement less likely.
Spill-over risks from the war in Ukraine are real, with the risk-vector Iran stepping up its overt support for Russia, adding its military and industrial capabilities (such as they are) to that of Russia in the production of drones and missiles.
Considering Iran is already suspected of providing material aid to Russia and the seeming determination by Teheran to minimize the explosions this morning, the risks of spill-over seem contained.

(ii) Iranian Retaliation in the Region
While the risk of direct involvement by Iran in the War in Ukraine does not present a central case scenario, elevated risks are present for Iran to seek to lash out regionally to emphasize its continued ability to project force (in the face of being hit domestically).
Of concern to markets could be the increased risk of Iranian attempts to sabotage or derail the energy supply to Europe. Considering Saudi Arabia’s non-confrontational attitude toward Russia lately, an Iranian threat in retaliation against the Kingdom is not likely at this time. Energy transits however could be targeted if the regime feels particularly vulnerable due to this morning’s explosions.

(iii) Elevated General Unrest in Oil Producing Countries
Markets generally respond poorly to upheaval in oil producing countries, especially when global demand is expected to respond to China’s reopening post Zero-Covid. These nebulous concerns are often short-lived though and price reactions fade.

Implications: Pushing Iran Further into Russia’s Camp? JCPOA?

The longer term implications of heightened “homeland” insecurity in Iran might well be a drive in Teheran to consolidate its alliances with Russia and China. The more Iran depends on Russia and China, the fewer diplomatic stepping stones are available to the West to present Iran with credible incentives not to develop a nuclear capability.
As US NSC official Admiral Kirby noted in December: “Russia is offering Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship.” Such support could include expertise in crowed control measures, but might also involve the delivery of fighter planes (Su-35), air-defense capabilities and potentially helicopters.

Russian support for Iran in nuclear matters is likely more fraught, with Moscow remaining wary of providing Iran with obvious pathways to a nuclear break-out moment. Its disastrous invasion of Ukraine could however marginally reshape Russia’s strategic calculus, making an alliance with Iran more palatable.
Last week, the US, UK and EU imposed fresh sanctions on dozens of Iranian officials and are actively considering designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. With relations between the West and Iran at a low point, the future of the JCPOA remains unclear and in “the deep freeze,” with all blocks satisfied that the nuclear status quo is acceptable (for now).
* * *
Money: Inside and Out is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
 

jward

passin' thru

Israel Launched Drone Attack on Iranian Facility, Officials Say​


Ronen Bergman, David E. Sanger, Farnaz Fassihi​



While the target’s purpose is unclear, the city of Isfahan is a major center of Iranian missile production, research and development.

A video capturing what is said to be the moment a drone hit a military factory in Isfahan, Iran.Credit...West Asia News Agency, via Reuters
A still frame of an explosion at a building at night.


TEL AVIV — A drone attack on an Iranian military facility that resulted in a large explosion in the center of the city of Isfahan on Saturday was the work of the Mossad, Israel’s premier intelligence agency, according to senior intelligence officials who were familiar with the dialogue between Israel and the United States about the incident.
The facility’s purpose was not clear, and neither was how much damage the strike caused. But Isfahan is a major center of missile production, research and development for Iran, including the assembly of many of its Shahab medium-range missiles, which can reach Israel and beyond.

Weeks ago, American officials publicly identified Iran as the primary supplier of drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine, and they said they believed Russia was also trying to obtain Iranian missiles to use in the conflict. But U.S. officials said they believed this strike was prompted by Israel’s concerns about its own security, not the potential for missile exports to Russia.
The strike came just as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was beginning a visit to Israel, his first since Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office as prime minister. The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William J. Burns, visited Israel last week, though it is not clear anything about the operation in Isfahan was discussed.
American officials quickly sent out word on Sunday morning that the United States was not responsible for the attack. One official confirmed that it had been conducted by Israel but did not have details about the target. Sometimes Israel gives the United States advance warning of an attack or informs American officials as an operation is being launched. It is unclear what happened in this case.

Isfahan is the site of four small nuclear research facilities, all supplied by China many years ago. But the facility that was struck on Saturday was in the middle of the city and did not appear to be nuclear-related.
Iran made no effort to hide the fact that an attack had happened, but said it had done little damage. In statements, senior Iranian officials contended that the drones — apparently quadcopters, a kind of aircraft with four separate propellers — had all been shot down.
Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported on Sunday that the drones had targeted an ammunition manufacturing plant, and that they had been shot down by a surface-to-air defense system. It is not clear why Iran would build an ammunition production plant in the middle of a city of roughly two million people.
Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, said at a news conference in Tehran on Sunday that “a cowardly drone attack on a military site in central Iran will not impede Iran’s progress on its peaceful nuclear program.”

This is Israel’s first known attack inside Iran since Mr. Netanyahu reassumed office, and it may indicate that he has adopted the strategy formed under his two predecessors and political rivals, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who expanded Israeli attacks inside Iran.
The quadcopters have become a signature of such operations.
In August 2019, Israel sent an exploding quadcopter into the heart of a Hezbollah-dominated neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon, to destroy what Israeli officials described as machinery vital to the production of precision missiles.

In June 2021, quadcopters exploded at one of Iran’s main manufacturing centers for centrifuges, which purify uranium at the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow and Natanz. That attack was in Karaj, on the outskirts of Tehran. Iran claimed that there was no damage to the site, but satellite images showed evidence of significant damage.
A year ago, six quadcopters exploded at Kermanshah, Iran’s main manufacturing and storage plant for military drones.
And in May 2022, a drone strike targeted a highly sensitive military site outside Tehran where Iran develops missile, nuclear and drone technology.
The targets — presumably including the military facility in Isfahan — have been chosen in part to shake the Iranian leadership, because they demonstrate intelligence about the locations of key sites, even those hidden in the middle of cities.
Image

A Shahab missile at a rally in Tehran last year. The facility that was attacked is in Isfahan, a major center of missile production.Credit...Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA, via Shutterstock
Crowds of people, some holding Iranian flags, surround a missile pointing up that is being paraded through a street in Tehran.

But the strikes also reflect a change in Israeli strategy made after Mr. Bennett became prime minister in June 2021. He lasted a year in the post.
Mr. Bennett says in a forthcoming YouTube video shared with The New York Times that he decided to “create a price tag” and strike inside Iran in response to any attack on Israelis or Jews around the world. “The Iranians beat us, and soldiers die on the border,” Mr. Bennett says in the self-produced interview, while Iranian leaders “sit quietly in Tehran and we do nothing to them.”

It was not just the quadcopter attacks.

After “Iran tried to murder Israelis in Cyprus, in Turkey,” Mr. Bennett says, the Revolutionary Guards Corps commander behind it “was eliminated in Tehran.” He is referring to the assassination of Sayad Khodayee, who Israel claimed was a leader of a covert unit responsible for the abduction and killing of Israelis and other foreigners around the world.
After Israel adopted the new strategy, Mr. Bennett says in the video, President Biden, during a meeting, made a “sharp request” that Israel inform the United States in advance “of any action we take in Iran.”
Mr. Bennett refused, he says.

“There are things you do not want to know about in advance,” he recalls telling the American president.
The intelligence communities of Israel and the United States clashed on the issue in April 2021 after an operation by the Mossad to blow up bunkers at the Natanz enrichment site surprised the United States.
Mr. Burns called his counterpart at the Mossad at the time, Yossi Cohen, to express concern over the snub. Mr. Cohen said that the belated notification was the result of operational constraints and uncertainty about when the Natanz operation would take place.
Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.
 

jward

passin' thru

Any US military action against Iran to be declaration of war​


Mehr News Agency​


"In Iran's perspective, the use of the military option at any level means US entry into the war. For now, Iran considers such a possibility to be weak," Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations told Newsweek.

Tehran also said that if the US "miscalculates and starts a war," then Washington would be responsible for the consequences of such a conflict "for the region and the world," the news outlet reported. In such a case, Iran will be capable of ensuring its own security and defending the country's interests, the magazine cited the mission as saying.

Washington has so far denied any involvement in the recent attack on Iran, the media outlet reported.

"We've seen the press reports, but can confirm that no US military forces have conducted strikes or operations inside Iran. We continue to monitor the situation, but have nothing further to provide," a Pentagon spokesperson was quoted as saying by media.

In a statement early on Sunday, the Iranian Defense Ministry announced that its air defense units had fended off a drone attack on a military workshop in Isfahan.

The ministry said one of the workshop complexes had come under attack from a number of Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs), but the complex’s air defenses successfully repelled the attack.

The ministry underscored that the unsuccessful attack did not cause any loss of life and only led to minor damage to the roof of a workshop. The complex, it added, continues its ordinary operations following the attack.

Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian condemned a "cowardly drone attack." Tehran also said it would not halt its progress on a "peaceful nuclear program."

Al Jazeera reported on Monday, citing an Iranian official that the preliminary data point to Israel's involvement in the recent Isfahan attack.

According to the Iranian official, drones that attacked the military workshop in the central city of Isfahan could have been launched from the territory of Iran, close to the attack site.
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1620507990225977344?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran
@Iran_GOV
6h

President Raisi to address #Iranian nation live on Tuesday night.
He is to elaborate on the most important domestic and international issues.
 

jward

passin' thru
אינטלי טיימס - Intelli Times
@IntelliTimes
לפצח את הסוד האיראני - כך נראית מפת הפעילות סביב האתר הביטחוני שהותקף באיספהן, על פי תחקיר "אינטלי טיימס". #IranDroneAttack
Translated from Hebrew by
Cracking the Iranian secret - this is what the map of activity around the security site that was attacked in Isfahan looks like, according to an "Intelli Times" investigation. #IranDroneAttack
View: https://twitter.com/IntelliTimes/status/1620370338684211200?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
5h

#BREAKING
Feb 1—Isfahan, central #Iran
Major explosion at a judiciary building early this morning local time
#IranRevoIution
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
9m

US State Department spokesman: The nuclear agreement with Iran has been off the table for months.
 

jward

passin' thru
Aleph א
@no_itsmyturn
1/6
Update as per a MoD source from #Iran:
The targeted hall in Isfahan was a centrifuge assembly hall. 800-900 meters away from the site there was an Artesh (Army) Hawk (MIM-23) site which had an unsuccessful launch on the drone attack night (Jan 28, 23)
The targeted site has a serious problem with the MICA and AD missile supply. They were obtaining MICA's A2A fuse and processor through a third party from Italy (black market) and were installing it on "IVECO" truck chasis for "Bavar" and "3 Khordad" systems, yet, due to some problems, they had to shut down the manufacturing line.

Adds:
Missile fuel tank and the fueselage were also being made with American D6 steel which was being purchased from the Turkish black market. @~ May, Hajizadeh was set to check the manufacturing line, the visit gets canceled and the manufacturing line "blows up", turns out that one of the manufacturing cones was emptied and filled with exploses since months ago, apparently, it was aimed to target Hajizadeh (IRGC Aerospace Force commander) himself.

Then, Ayyub Entezarigets killed (Quoted tweet), Entezari was affiliated with 3 Khordad AD system.
After the mentioned blast, they replaced their old suppliers with Chinese steel companies and since then they predicted a 20% of failure rate in their products.
View: https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1621251741827186688?s=20

Furthermore: Mentioned AD system radar systems are using O'General air conditioners for the ventilation systems. Right now, in IRIAF there are only Archer and Alamos left as operational projectiles.
 

jward

passin' thru
David Soiza
@SoizaDavid
1m

Replying to
@SoizaDavid
Ahmadinejad and Assad: Iran and Syria Are Leading a New World Order; The Time of America and the West Is Over
View: https://twitter.com/SoizaDavid/status/1622759844603392001?s=20












David Soiza
@SoizaDavid
1m

“Iran and Syria plan to create a new world order, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday. "Iran and Syria have a joint mission to create a new world order on the basis of justice, humanity and belief in God,"
 

jward

passin' thru

Iran and Syria 'to create new world order': Ahmadinejad

Published January 8, 2010

Iran and Syria plan to create a new world order, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday. "Iran and Syria have a joint mission to create a new world order on the basis of justice, humanity and belief in God," Ahmadinejad told visiting Syrian Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Abrash.
Syria is Iran's main ally in the Middle East and both countries consider Israel to be their political arch-foe. "At the current juncture, the role of Iran and Syria is historic and therefore bilateral co-operation should be increased," Mehr news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

The Iranian president said that the Tehran-Damascus front has neutralised the world powers' policies in the Middle East and pushed them into a dead end. He said the United States would eventually be forced by the two states to stop interference in the region and withdraw its military personnel. Mehr quoted the Syrian speaker as saying that Iran and Syria would side by side move towards continued resistance and fight against world imperialism.
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Iran Says US Responsible for Any Israeli Attack against it​


Tuesday, 14 February, 2023 - 09:15


124587.jpg

A picture released by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) of a squadron of US and Israeli fighters over Ashdod port.
London, Tehran, Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat
Iran warned it would firmly respond to any move threatening its security, saying the US was responsible for any action taken by its ally Israel.
The Israeli army said its Defense Forces and US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched Juniper Oak, a joint drill Sunday focused on air defense, cyber security, intelligence, and logistics.
Some 6,400 US and over 1,500 Israeli troops, over 140 aircraft, 12 naval vessels, and artillery systems are taking part, making it the nations' largest-ever joint drill.
Juniper Falcon is part of the ongoing strategic cooperation between the Israeli and US armies and is complementary to Juniper Oak.
"The exercise will focus on aerial defense, cyber and spectrum, intelligence and logistical scenarios, and will test joint US-Israeli readiness for potential security events," said the Israeli army.
The new maneuvers come amid renewed Iranian-Israeli tension following a drone attack against a military facility on Jan. 29.
Relations between Iran and the West have been strained over Tehran's nuclear program and ita supplying of Russia with weapons and long-range drones in its war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Iran would take "decisive and serious" actions against security threats and those behind them.
Kanaani indicated that Iran had responded to Israel's attacks against its security, reiterating Tehran's position against any action by the United States and Israel in the region that would compromise its safety.
Washington is responsible for any move by Tel Aviv because the US is Israel's ally and supporter, he asserted, saying the "Zionist entity should consider its turbulent domestic situation."
Moreover, he said Israel was too weak to make a military move against Iran, remarking that it has “tasted Tehran's firm response.”
On Friday, Iran announced that its security forces arrested the main perpetrators of the attack on Isfahan.
"So far, the involvement of mercenaries of the … Zionist regime [Israel] in that act has been proven," reported the state news agency IRNA.
Furthermore, Kanaani said Tehran prioritizes lifting sanctions during negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
He welcomed the Iraqi mediation to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, hoping it would lead to progress in the negotiations between the two countries.
The spokesman addressed regional countries, saying cooperation is the best solution for maintaining security.
Kanaani criticized French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, saying her statements would not affect the course of resolving the issues and misunderstandings between Iran and European parties.
On Friday, Colonna told her US counterpart, Antony Blinken, there must be a stronger "international response" to the threat posed by Iran's ballistic missiles program.
He stressed that the missile program is defensive and based on legal rights, international norms, and principles. Iran Says US Responsible for Any Israeli Attack against it
 
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